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USGS2015

Porphyry copper assessment of northeast Asia: Far East Russia and northeasternmost China: Chapter W in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey assesses resources (mineral, energy, water, environmental, and biologic) at regional, national, and global scales to provide science in support of land management and decision making. Mineral resource assessments provide a synthesis of available information about where mineral deposits are known and suspected to be in the Earth’s crust, which commodities may be present, and estimates of amounts of resources in undiscovered deposits. A probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered resources associated with porphyry copper deposits in northeast Asia—composed mainly of Far East Russia and a small part of northeasternmost China—was completed as part of a global mineral resource assessment. Porphyry copper deposits are the main source of copper globally. Russia is an important source of copper, consistently ranking as 6th, 7th, or 8th in world production since 2000, and ranked 7th in 2014. Most of this production has been from magmatic copper-nickel-platinum-group element, volcanogenic massive sulfide, and sediment-hosted copper deposit types. The purpose of the assessment was to (1) compile a database of known deposits and significant prospects, (2) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered porphyry copper deposits that may be present in the upper kilometer of the Earth’s crust, and (3) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), and silver (Ag) that could be contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in the tracts. The assessment was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with geologists from the Russian Academy of Sciences and industry consultants. The database of known deposits, significant prospects, and prospects includes an inventory of mineral resources in two known porphyry copper deposits, as well as key characteristics derived from available exploration reports for 70 significant porphyry copper prospects and 86 other prospects. Resource and exploration and development activity are updated with information current through February 2013.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Geologic assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Cherokee Platform area of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri

In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey completed a geology-based assessment to estimate the volumes of undiscovered, technically recoverable petroleum resources in the Cherokee Platform Province area of southeastern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma, and southwestern Missouri. The U.S. Geological Survey identified four stratigraphic intervals that contain petroleum source rocks: (1) thin shales in the Middle to Upper Ordovician Simpson Group, (2) shales within the Upper Devonian to Lower Mississippian Woodford Shale and stratigraphically equivalent Chattanooga Shale, (3) coals and coal-associated shales and mudstones in the Middle Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Cherokee and Marmaton Groups, and (4) thin marine shales within the Marmaton Group and the Upper Pennsylvanian (Missourian) Kansas City and Lansing Groups. Based on the nature of the petroleum accumulations, the characterization of the compositions and thermal maturity of the organic matter in the rocks, and the compositions of the produced petroleum, the U.S. Geological Survey identified three total petroleum systems (TPS) containing four assessment units (AU): the Paleozoic Composite TPS with the Paleozoic Conventional Assessment Unit (AU), the Woodford/Chattanooga TPS with the Woodford Shale Oil AU and the Woodford Biogenic Gas AU, and the Desmoinesian Coal TPS with the Desmoinesian Coalbed Gas AU. Assessment unit summaries follow 1. Three source rock intervals have contributed geochemically distinct oils to reservoirs within the Paleozoic Conventional AU. These intervals are the Simpson Group; the Woodford and Chattanooga Shales; and the Marmaton, Kansas City, and Lansing Groups. The major petroleum source rocks are the Woodford and Chattanooga Shales. The Paleozoic Conventional AU includes reservoirs that range in age from the Upper Cambrian Arbuckle Group to the lower Permian Chase Group. Most oil production in the province has been from Pennsylvanian sandstone reservoirs. Estimated undiscovered petroleum resources for this AU are a mean of 3 million barrels of oil (MMBO), 140 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFG), and 4 million barrels of natural gas liquids (MMBNGL). 2. The Woodford Shale Oil AU contains undiscovered continuous petroleum resources within the Woodford Shale and Chattanooga Shale. The geologic model for the AU assumes that petroleum resources remain trapped within the shale following petroleum migration. For most of the AU, organic matter within the Woodford Shale and Chattanooga Shale is thermally mature with respect to petroleum generation as shown by vitrinite reflectance values between 0.6 and 1 percent. Petroleum has been produced from the Woodford Shale and Chattanooga Shale. Estimated undiscovered petroleum resources for this AU are means of 460 MMBO, 640 BCFG, and 7 MMBNGL. 3. The Woodford Shale Biogenic Gas AU contains undiscovered continuous petroleum resources in the east-central portion of the Cherokee Platform Province near the Ozark uplift where the Woodford Shale and Chattanooga Shale are at depths of 1,250 ft or shallower. At those depths, methanogenesis and(or) biodegradation of thermogenic natural gases can be found where the shale may be more fractured and more susceptible to groundwater penetrations. The mean assessed volume of undiscovered gas for this assessment unit is 416 BCFG and 1 MMBNGL. 4. The Desmoinesian Coalbed Gas AU contains undiscovered continuous petroleum resources within the Middle Pennsylvanian coals and coal-associated shales and mudstones. The boundaries for the Desmoinesian Coalbed Gas AU are, in part, defined by the extent, depth, and thickness of the coals. Within the Desmoinesian Coalbed Gas AU, a sweet spot area was delineated based on a 10 foot or greater net coal thickness. Gas analytical data show that natural gas produced from the coals has a mixed biogenic and thermogenic origin and that there is significant migration of natural gas into the coals from adjacent conventional sandstone reservoirs. The estimated mean volume of undiscovered gas is 10.0 trillion cubic ft of gas (TCFG), and 23 MMBNGL. For the three continuous (unconventional) assessment units and one conventional assessment unit in the Cherokee Platform Province, total mean volumes of undiscovered petroleum resources are estimated to be 463 MMBO, 11.2 TCFG and 35 MMBNGL.

Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS1998

Energy resources - cornucopia or empty barrel?

Over the last 25 yr, considerable debate has continued about the future supply of fossil fuel. On one side are those who believe we are rapidly depleting resources and that the resulting shortages will have a profound impact on society. On the other side are those who see no impending crisis because long-term trends are for cheaper prices despite rising production. The concepts of resources and reserves have historically created considerable misunderstanding in the minds of many nongeologists. Hubbert-type predictions of energy production assume that there is a finite supply of energy that is measurable; however, estimates of resources and reserves are inventories of the amounts of a fossil fuel perceived to be available over some future period of time. As those resources/reserves are depleted over time, additional amounts of fossil fuels are inventoried. Throughout most of this century, for example, crude oil reserves in the United States have represented a 10-14-yr supply. For the last 50 yr, resource crude oil estimates have represented about a 60-70-yr supply for the United States. Division of reserve or resource estimates by current or projected annual consumption therefore is circular in reasoning and can lead to highly erroneous conclusions. Production histories of fossil fuels are driven more by demand than by the geologic abundance of the resource. Examination of some energy resources with well-documented histories leads to two conceptual models that relate production to price. The closed-market model assumes that there is only one source of energy available. Although the price initially may fall because of economies of scale long term, prices rise as the energy source is depleted and it becomes progressively more expensive to extract. By contrast, the open-market model assumes that there is a variety of available energy sources and that competition among them leads to long-term stable or falling prices. At the moment, the United States and the world approximate the open-market model, but in the long run the supply of fossil fuel is finite, and prices inevitably will rise unless alternate energy sources substitute for fossil energy supplies; however, there appears little reason to suspect that long-term price trends will rise significantly over the next few decades.Over the last 25 years, considerable debate has continued about the future supply of fossil fuel. On one side are those who believe that resources are rapidly depleting and that the resulting shortages will have a profound impact on society. On the other side are those who see no impending crisis because longterm trends are for cheaper prices despite rising production. This paper examines historic trends and clarify the foundations on which one may build one's predictions.

American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗

USGS2001

Natural-gas hydrates: Resource of the twenty-first century?

Although considerable uncertainty and disagreement prevail concerning the world's gas-hydrate resources, the estimated amount of gas in those gas-hydrate accumulations greatly exceeds the volume of known conventional gas reserves. However, the role that gas hydrates will play in contributing to the world's energy requirements will ultimately depend less on the volume of gas-hydrate resources than on the cost to extract them. Gas hydrates occur in sedimentary deposits under conditions of pressure and temperature present in permafrost regions and beneath the sea in outer continental margins. The combined information from arctic gas-hydrate studies shows that in permafrost regions, gas hydrates may exist at subsurface depths ranging from about 130 m to 2000 m. The presence of gas hydrates in offshore continental margins has been inferred mainly from anomalous seismic reflectors (known as bottom-simulating reflectors) that have been mapped at depths below the seafloor ranging from approximately 100 m to 1100 m. Current estimates of the amount of gas in the world's marine and permafrost gas-hydrate accumulations are in rough accord at about 20,000 trillion m3. Gas hydrate as an energy commodity is often grouped with other unconventional hydrocarbon resources. In most cases, the evolution of a nonproducible unconventional resource to a producible energy resource has relied on significant capital investment and technology development. To evaluate the energy-resource potential of gas hydrates will also require the support of sustained research and development programs. Despite the fact that relatively little is known about the ultimate resource potential of gas hydrates, it is certain that they are a vast storehouse of natural gas, and significant technical challenges will need to be met before this enormous resource can be considered an economically producible reserve.

AAPG Memoir↗

USGS2014

Two approaches for incorporating climate change into natural resource management planning at Wind Cave National Park

Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches. Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches.

Report↗

USGS2020

Resource allocation for coastal wetland management: Confronting uncertainty about sea level rise

Coastal wetlands are rich and diverse ecosystems with a wide variety of birdlife and other natural resources. Decision making for coastal wetland management is difficult given the complex nature of these ecological systems and the frequent need to meet multiple objectives for varied resources. Management challenges in the coastal zone are exacerbated by uncertainty about sea level rise and impacts on infrastructure, particularly the levees and structures which provide managers the ability to manipulate water levels in managed wetlands and create high quality habitat for birds and other wildlife. The most challenging decisions in coastal wetland management involve resource allocation for habitat manipulations and longer-term investments to maintain management control in wetlands that are increasingly compromised by sea level rise and increasing storm frequency and intensity associated with a changing climate. We used multi-criteria decision analysis to create a resource allocation framework for managed wetlands that identifies the most effective and efficient management strategies that are robust to uncertainty about sea level rise. The prototype framework includes a small number of managed wetlands, for which subject matter experts articulated potential management and restoration actions. The consequences of these actions were predicted using expert elicitation with the subject matter experts; furthermore, expert judgment was used to articulate expected outcomes with two hypotheses about the rate of sea level rise. We used a constrained optimization (integer linear programming) to find optimal resource allocation strategies given a range of budget constraints; we also used a Pareto efficiency analysis for a graphical solution to the problem if the exact budget constraint is not known. Finally, given the importance of preference weights in a multi-criteria decision analysis, we also evaluated sensitivity to objective weights. With this resource allocation framework, we showed how to identify optimal combinations of management and restoration actions to maximize benefits in terms of stated objectives. We show how multiple working hypotheses about sea level rise can be incorporated into decisions for coastal wetland management. Our resource allocation approach can be modified for a wide variety of natural resource management settings.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

The US Geological Survey’s Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (Earth MRI)—Providing framework geologic, geophysical, and elevation data to the nation’s critical mineral-bearing regions

New detailed mapping of the geologic resources of the Nation has the potential to significantly close the gap in the essential data needed to fuel a modern era of economic development and technological innovation, while at the same time dramatically enhancing our understanding of the fundamental way geology impacts everyday life, from the domestic critical mineral resources that are necessary for modern technology and the economy, to domestic energy and water resources, geologic hazards, agriculture, and other pressing needs. The U.S. Geological Survey established the Earth Resources Mapping Initiative (Earth MRI) to address the shortfall in geologic, geophysical, and elevation data with sufficient detail to support evaluation of regions in the United States that have potential to host critical mineral resources. The new effort is a collaboration with the Association of American State Geologists, who are providing new detailed geologic maps and making available online archived data and information related to critical mineral resources. The geophysical and lidar surveys are being contracted through industry specialists to assure that high-quality data are available to the public. This article provides an overview of the Earth MRI effort with discussions on the initial geophysical surveys funded for areas that have known potential for rare earth element resources. Subsequent projects are being designed to address areas that may host other critical mineral resources.

Fast Times↗

USGS2025

Potential for co-production of lithium and geothermal resources in the Gulf Coast

Lithium brine extractions and geothermal resource developments often are not economically viable as standalone projects, but they May become cost effective when the potential for both resources exist within the same reservoir. Subsurface datasets were analyzed to identify areas in the U.S. Gulf Coast region with potential for lithium brine and geothermal heat recovery. Temperature, lithium brine content, and reservoir quality data for thirty-four depositional units were evaluated using spatial analysis to interpret high-grade areas where both resources likely coexist. For sedimentary geothermal systems, potential resource areas are sorted by resource grade: as low temperature (<90°C, direct use potential), moderate temperature (90–150°C, direct use and electricity generation), and high temperature (>150°C, primarily electricity generation). Lithium resources were defined by Li lithium brine concentrations in parts per million (ppm): low potential (<100ppm), moderate potential (100–200ppm), and high potential (>200ppm). Reservoir quality affects the viability of both resources and is evaluated using interpreted lithofacies that describe the depositional environments of each unit. Using the results, a series of play fairway analysis maps were generated to support regional evaluations of lithium and geothermal resources and to identify areas of interest for detailed, prospect-scale studies.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS1992

The study of the undiscovered mineral resources of the Tongass National Forest and adjacent lands, Southeastern Alaska

The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning. Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05. The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion. Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources↗

USGS2016

Mineral resources: Reserves, peak production and the future

The adequacy of mineral resources in light of population growth and rising standards of living has been a concern since the time of Malthus (1798), but many studies erroneously forecast impending peak production or exhaustion because they confuse reserves with “all there is”. Reserves are formally defined as a subset of resources, and even current and potential resources are only a small subset of “all there is”. Peak production or exhaustion cannot be modeled accurately from reserves. Using copper as an example, identified resources are twice as large as the amount projected to be needed through 2050. Estimates of yet-to-be discovered copper resources are up to 40-times more than currently-identified resources, amounts that could last for many centuries. Thus, forecasts of imminent peak production due to resource exhaustion in the next 20–30 years are not valid. Short-term supply problems may arise, however, and supply-chain disruptions are possible at any time due to natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes) or political complications. Needed to resolve these problems are education and exploration technology development, access to prospective terrain, better recycling and better accounting of externalities associated with production (pollution, loss of ecosystem services and water and energy use).

Resources↗

USGS2023

Fire regime shapes butterfly communities through changes in nectar resources in an Australian tropical savanna

Fire-dependent savanna provides key habitat for butterflies globally, but we know little about how fire regimes, including fire frequency and season, affect them. These impacts are likely to be primarily indirect, through changes in overall habitat structure, the abundance of larval host plants, and/or the provision of nectar resources for adults. We examined the relationships among fire regime, butterfly abundance and diversity, and vegetation structure and floral resources within a long-term fire experiment near Darwin in the Australian monsoon tropics. We surveyed butterflies and floral resources throughout the 2019–2020 wet season in three replicate plots of each of six experimental treatments that had been operating for 15 years. All plots subject to fire had been burned in the previous dry season. We observed 24 butterfly species and 280 individuals representing all five butterfly families found in Northern Australia. Butterfly abundance was highest under early dry-season (June) fire regimes (mean = 11.9 individuals per plot survey) compared with a late dry-season (October) regime (mean = 6.7) and in the long-term absence of fire (mean = 5.3), and this was correlated with the abundance of floral resources. The distribution of butterflies was also highly associated with floral resources within plots regardless of fire treatment. Butterfly species richness was significantly higher in early dry-season (mean = 6.8) compared with unburned (mean = 3.3) plots but did not differ between early and late dry-season (mean = 4.7) plots. Butterfly and floral diversity were similar across all early dry-season fire treatments regardless of whether they had been burned every 1, 2, 3, or 5 years. Our finding that early dry-season burning promotes butterfly diversity and abundance by increasing the supply of nectar resources has important implications for biodiversity management more broadly, given that nectar is a critical resource for many animal taxa.

Territory Wildlife Park↗

USGS2022

Seasonal resource selection and movement ecology of free-ranging horses in the western United States

Understanding factors driving resource selection and habitat use of different species is an important component of management and conservation. Feral horses ( Equus caballus ) are free ranging across various vegetation types in the western United States, yet few studies have quantified their resource selection and seasonal use. We conducted a study to determine effects of vegetation community, distance to water, and topographic variables on seasonal resource selection in 2 feral horse populations in Great Basin sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of west-central Utah, USA: Conger Herd Management Area (HMA) and Frisco HMA. We deployed global positioning system (GPS) radio-collars on 38 female horses and GPS-transmitters braided and glued into the tail hair of 14 males, collecting locations every 2 hours for 1–4 years between 2016 and 2020. We calculated home range size and core use area of social groups (harems) and bachelor males using auto-correlated kernel density estimators for each biologically defined season (breeding, fall, and winter) per study year. We examined seasonal home range size and overlap of harem groups and bachelor males and compared movement speed of bachelors and harems among seasons. We determined seasonal resource selection in a use-availability framework using resource selection functions. We hypothesized that horses would select for areas of high herbaceous vegetation, that water would be a key variable in resource selection models like other equids, and home range size in winter would be largest because horses can eat snow for hydration and could therefore roam farther from surface water. Mean annual home range size was 103.12 ± 37.38 km 2 (SD) for Conger harems and 117.47 ± 32.75 km 2 for Frisco harems. At Conger there was no difference in home range size between harem groups and bachelor males, but home range size was smaller in winter than other seasons, whereas winter home range size at Frisco was larger than other seasons. Bachelor males moved at higher speeds than harems during all seasons, and harem groups from both populations had lower movement speeds in winter. Harem groups had distinct winter ranges with little overlap on breeding season ranges. In both populations, all horses selected for herbaceous vegetation types and avoided forest relative to shrubland throughout the year. Harems at Frisco were consistently located closer to water sources, whereas selection for water sources by Conger harems varied seasonally, with winter having the lowest selection. Harem groups at Conger had an average of 10.6% of their home ranges outside the HMA boundary and Frisco harems had up to 66.8% outside, likely because of the horseshoe shape of Frisco HMA in which shrub meadows (foraging areas) comprise the horseshoe center, which is outside the HMA. Our results highlight the importance of water sources, which were a key predictor of horse movement patterns in our study. We emphasize the utility of telemetry devices to understand resource selection of feral horses at a fine scale, enabling management to be more targeted and facilitate planning.

Utah↗

USGS1997

Source-sink dynamics and the coexistence of species on a single resource

We investigate the potential for coexistence of species that compete for a shared resource when the resource occurs in both a source area acting as a refuge and a sink area where it is used by the competing species. Our model shows that the mixing rate between the source and sink resource populations has a dramatic influence on the outcome of competition. When there is a strict sink–source dependence, so that resource renewal in the sink is entirely dependent on the source, only exploitation competition decides which species can survive at a very small mixing rate. Increasing the flow rate basically amounts to increasing the role played by interference competition. If interspecific interference is very small, compared with intraspecific interference, increasing the mixing rate allows coexistence of many species, indeed, unlimited coexistence if the species' resource exploitation efficiencies are similar enough. If interspecific interference is significant and there is a trade-off between the exploitation and interference competitive abilities of two species, it is possible to have one species replacing the other along a gradient of increasing mixing rate, with either coexistence or alternative single-species equilibria at intermediate values of the mixing rate. It is also possible to have one species always outcompeting the other, or alternative single-species stable equilibria at large mixing rates. When the strict sink–source dependence is relaxed by allowing the resource to have a partly independent renewal–loss dynamics in the sink area, the variety of possible outcomes along a gradient of mixing rate is further increased. These outcomes are often strongly sensitive to the parameters of resource dynamics and interspecific interference competition. The implications of these results for biological conservation can be profound; detailed knowledge of interspecific interactions appears to be necessary to determine the effect of any land management that alters dispersal opportunities.

Theoretical Population Biology↗

USGS1984

U.S. Geological Survey probabilistic methodology for oil and gas resource appraisal of the United States

Probabilistic methodology used by the U.S. Geological Survey is described for estimating the quantity of undiscovered recoverable conventional resources of oil and gas in the United States. A judgmental probability distribution of the "quantity of resource" and its properties is determined for a geologic province or basin. From this distribution, point and interval estimates of the quantity of undiscovered resource are obtained. Distributions and their properties are established for each of the following resources: (1) oil and nonassociated gas from estimates of the probability of the resource being present and the conditional probability distribution of the quantity of resource given that the resource is present, (2) associated-dissolved gas from its corresponding oil distribution, (3) total gas, (4) oil and total gas in two or more provinces. Computer graphics routines are illustrated with examples from the U.S. Geological Survey Circular 860. ?? 1984 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗

USGS2009

Classification of CO 2 Geologic Storage: Resource and Capacity

The use of the term capacity to describe possible geologic storage implies a realistic or likely volume of CO 2 to be sequestered. Poor data quantity and quality may lead to very high uncertainty in the storage estimate. Use of the term "storage resource" alleviates the implied certainty of the term "storage capacity". This is especially important to non- scientists (e.g. policy makers) because "capacity" is commonly used to describe the very specific and more certain quantities such as volume of a gas tank or a hotel's overnight guest limit. Resource is a term used in the classification of oil and gas accumulations to infer lesser certainty in the commercial production of oil and gas. Likewise for CO 2 sequestration, a suspected porous and permeable zone can be classified as a resource, but capacity can only be estimated after a well is drilled into the formation and a relatively higher degree of economic and regulatory certainty is established. Storage capacity estimates are lower risk or higher certainty compared to storage resource estimates. In the oil and gas industry, prospective resource and contingent resource are used for estimates with less data and certainty. Oil and gas reserves are classified as Proved and Unproved, and by analogy, capacity can be classified similarly. The highest degree of certainty for an oil or gas accumulation is Proved, Developed Producing (PDP) Reserves. For CO 2 sequestration this could be Proved Developed Injecting (PDI) Capacity. A geologic sequestration storage classification system is developed by analogy to that used by the oil and gas industry. When a CO 2 sequestration industry emerges, storage resource and capacity estimates will be considered a company asset and consequently regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Additionally, storage accounting and auditing protocols will be required to confirm projected storage estimates and assignment of credits from actual injection. An example illustrates the use of these terms and how storage classification changes as new data become available. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2026

Global pegmatite-hosted lithium, cesium, and rubidium resources: A dataset for grade and tonnage modeling

Quantitative mineral resource assessments of potential undiscovered deposits can inform future mineral supply scenarios, but their accuracy is conditional on building robust grade and tonnage models of known deposits. This study presents an up-to-date global compilation and analysis of recently discovered and original, in-situ pegmatite-hosted Li, Cs, and Rb resources prior to historic production. Our analysis yields a median tonnage of 21.2 million tons (Mt) and grade of 1.12% Li 2 O, respectively, for global Li pegmatite deposits ( n = 73). The grades and tonnages of Li pegmatite resources vary depending on the age of the bedrock host domain, pegmatite crystallization age, and primary ore mineralogy. Lithium pegmatite resources hosted in Archean to transitional Archean-Paleoproterozoic domains have the largest median tonnage (29.8 Mt; n = 38), and those hosted in Paleoproterozoic to Mesoproterozoic domains have smaller median tonnages (6.5 Mt; n = 16). Cesium deposits where pollucite is the primary ore mineral have a bimodal grade distribution, with modes of 2.40 and 0.035 wt% Cs 2 O for high- and low-grade deposits, respectively, while Rb deposits are more unimodal with a median grade of 0.247 wt% Rb 2 O. Pegmatite-hosted Cs and Rb resources have median tonnages of 7.6 and 6.3 Mt, respectively. Covariation between ore mineralogy and the degree of crustal enrichment in pegmatite-hosted deposits is diagnostic of petrogenetic differences, including melt source characteristics, magma evolution, or variable degrees of volatile solubility. The Li pegmatite compilation is suitable for fitting robust numerical models to support quantitative assessments. More well-defined Rb and Cs pegmatite resources are required for quantitative assessments, but these data provide useful information about original in-place resources for framing supply discussions.

Ore Geology Reviews↗

USGS2017

Isotopic niches support the resource breadth hypothesis

Because a broad spectrum of resource use allows species to persist in a wide range of habitat types, and thus permits them to occupy large geographical areas, and because broadly distributed species have access to more diverse resource bases, the resource breadth hypothesis posits that the diversity of resources used by organisms should be positively related with the extent of their geographic ranges. We investigated isotopic niche width in a small radiation of South American birds in the genus Cinclodes . We analysed feathers of 12 species of Cinclodes to test the isotopic version of the resource breadth hypothesis and to examine the correlation between isotopic niche breadth and morphology. We found a positive correlation between the widths of hydrogen and oxygen isotopic niches (which estimate breadth of elevational range) and widths of the carbon and nitrogen isotopic niches (which estimates the diversity of resources consumed, and hence of habitats used). We also found a positive correlation between broad isotopic niches and wing morphology. Our study not only supports the resource breadth hypothesis but it also highlights the usefulness of stable isotope analyses as tools in the exploration of ecological niches. It is an example of a macroecological application of stable isotopes. It also illustrates the importance of scientific collections in ecological studies.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2012

Direct and indirect effects of land use on floral resources and flower-visiting insects across an urban landscape

Although urban areas are often considered to have uniformly negative effects on biodiversity, cities are most accurately characterized as heterogeneous mosaics of buildings, streets, parks, and gardens that include both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ areas for wildlife. However, to date, few studies have evaluated how human impacts vary in direction and magnitude across a heterogeneous urban landscape. In this study, we assessed the distribution of floral resources and flower-visiting insects across a variety of land uses in New York City. We visited both green spaces (e.g. parks, cemeteries) and heavily developed neighborhood blocks (e.g. with high or low density residential zoning) and used structural equation modeling (SEM) to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of median income, vegetation, and development intensity on floral resources and insects in both settings. Abundance and taxonomic richness of flower-visiting insects was significantly greater in green spaces than neighborhood blocks. The SEM results indicated that heavily-developed neighborhoods generally had fewer flower-visiting insects consistent with reductions in floral resources. However, some low-density residential neighborhoods maintained high levels of floral resources and flower-visiting insects. We found that the effects of surrounding vegetation on floral resources, and thus indirect effects on insects, varied considerably between green spaces and neighborhood blocks. Along neighborhood blocks, vegetation consisted of a mosaic of open gardens and sparsely distributed trees and had a positive indirect effect on flower-visiting insects. In contrast, vegetation in urban green spaces was associated with increased canopy cover and thus had a negative indirect effect on flower-visiting insects through reductions in floral resources. In both neighborhood blocks and green spaces, vegetation had a positive direct effect on flower-visiting insects independent of the influence of vegetation on floral resources. Our results demonstrate how inter-related components of an urban ecosystem can vary with respect to one another across a heterogeneous urban landscape, suggesting that it is inappropriate to generalize about urban systems as a whole without first addressing differences among component land use types.

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