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Systematic variation in the depths of slabs beneath arc volcanoes

The depths to the tops of the zones of intermediate-depth seismicity beneath arc volcanoes are determined using the hypocentral locations of Engdahl et al. These depths are constant, to within a few kilometres, within individual arc segments, but differ by tens of kilometres from one arc segment to another. The range in depths is from 65 km to 130 km, inconsistent with the common belief that the volcanoes directly overlie the places where the slabs reach a critical depth that is roughly constant for all arcs. The depth to the top of the intermediate-depth seismicity beneath volcanoes correlates neither with age of the descending ocean floor nor with the thermal parameter of the slab. This depth does, however, exhibit an inverse correlation with the descent speed of the subducting plate, which is the controlling factor both for the thermal structure of the wedge of mantle above the slab and for the temperature at the top of the slab. We interpret this result as indicating that the location of arc volcanoes is controlled by a process that depends critically upon the temperature at the top of the slab, or in the wedge of mantle, immediately below the volcanic arc.

Geophysical Journal International↗

Use of behavioral and physiological indicators to evaluate Scaphirhynchus sturgeon spawning success

Thirty gravid, female shovelnose sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus platorynchus ) were captured in the Lower Missouri River in March 2004 to evaluate the effectiveness of physiology, telemetry and remote sensor technology coupled with change point analysis in identifying when and where Scaphirhynchus sturgeon spawn. Captured sturgeons were instrumented with ultrasonic transmitters and with archival data storage tags (DST) that recorded temperature and pressure. Female sturgeon were tracked through the suspected spawning period. Thereafter, attempts were made to recapture fish to evaluate spawning success. At the time of transmitter implantation, blood and an ovarian biopsy were taken. Reproductive hormones and cortisol were measured in blood. Polarization indices and germinal vesicle breakdown were assessed on the biopsied oocytes to determine readiness to spawn. Behavioral data collected using telemetry and DST sensors were used to determine the direction and magnitude of possible spawning-related movements and to identify the timing of potential spawning events. Upon recapture observations of the ovaries and blood chemistry provided measures of spawning success and comparative indicators to explain differences in observed behavior. Behavioral and physiological indicators of spawning interpreted along with environmental measures may assist in the determination of variables that may cue sturgeon reproduction and the conditions under which sturgeon successfully spawn.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology↗

Long-term distributed temperature sensing monitoring for near-wellbore gas migration and gas hydrate formation

Well integrity monitoring has always been a critical component of subsurface oil and gas operations. Distributed fiber-optic sensing is an emerging technology that shows great promise for monitoring processes, both in boreholes and in other settings. In this study, we present a case study of using distributed temperature sensing (DTS) technology to monitor a cemented and plugged well in the Alaska North Slope (ANS). The well was drilled as part of a long-term gas hydrate study, and the downhole DTS data were recorded over a period of approximately 2 years. By applying a temporal gradient and removing instrument instability noise, we reveal subtle (<0.001°C/h) thermal anomalies, which are characterized by brief warming periods followed by longer cooling periods at discrete depths along the borehole. The observed coherent events show an upward trajectory from deeper formations into the overlying permafrost interval, with the thermal anomalies concentrated in relatively coarse-grained sandstone layers. We also observe that the upward migration rate of the DTS anomalies varies with formation lithology and that there is a spatial and temporal correlation between the subsurface events and measured wellhead annular pressures. We interpret that the observed warming events represent the exothermic process of gas hydrate formation that is occurring in association with the upward migration of gas outside the well casing, and this interpretation is confirmed by numerical simulations. These observations demonstrate the ability of suitably processed DTS data to detect subtle processes and highlight the value of DTS technologies for wellbore integrity monitoring.

Alaska↗

Nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for species undergoing environmental stressors

A fundamental task in ecological statistics is to estimate abundance and growth rate distributions from wildlife monitoring data to inform conservation management. Modeling time series of wildlife populations presents a number of challenges from both statistical and ecological perspectives, including discreteness; lack of replication; nonstationarity; and observation, demographic, and other phenomenological processes. Nonstationary dynamics are often exhibited by populations undergoing environmental stressors. Models must account for these characteristics to produce reliable estimates of abundance and trends, yet estimation can be challenging with unreplicated data. We propose nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for populations undergoing environmental stressors. A reduced growth rate model matches the complexity of the unreplicated count data, and a fecundity bound on growth rate distributions allows the separation of processes affecting growth rates like environmental stressors from those affecting abundance external to growth rates like migration. NDSSMs allow for the embedding of nonstationary model components, and we explore the use of changepoints, volatility clustering, and migration processes. We apply the proposed nonstationary models in case studies of herons affected by predator/competitor reestablishment and three bat species affected by a fungal pathogen causing white-nose syndrome. Nonstationary models outperform stationary models and generalized linear mixed effects models according to model scoring and visual inspection of predictions, and provide estimates more consistent with published values. Incorporating migration improves model fit universally, even with approximate one-way immigration, most likely because populations are extirpated, recolonized, and increase multiple-fold over the upper bound set by species fecundity. In addition, estimates of the timing and severity of the environmental stressor differed for models with migration. Including nonstationary and demographic components in a fecundity-bounded growth rate model improves inference and benefits interpretability of hyperparameters. In turn, this adjusts uncertainties in predictions of abundance and growth rates over time, providing the ingredients needed for informed conservation analysis and for directing future monitoring of at-risk species.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗

Probability plotting position formulas for flood records with historical information

For purposes of evaluating fitted flood frequency distributions or for purposes of estimating distributions directly from plots of flood peaks versus exceedance probabilities (either by subjective or objective techniques), one needs a probability plotting position formula which can be applied to all of the flood data available: both systematic and historic floods. Some of the formulas in use are simply extensions of existing formulas (such as Hazen and Weibull) used on systematic flood records. New plotting position formulas proposed by Hirsch and Stedinger (1986) and in this paper are based on a recognition that the flood data arises from partially censored sampling of the flood record. The theoretical appropriateness, bias in probability and bias in discharge of the various plotting position formulas are considered. The methods are compared in terms of their effects on flood frequency estimation when an objective curve-fitting method of estimation is employed. Consideration is also given to the correct interpretation of the historical record length and the effect of incorrectly assuming that record length equals the time since the first known historical flood. This assumption is employed in many flood frequency studies and may result in a substantial bias in estimated design flood magnitudes.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Power laws, discontinuities and regional city size distributions

Urban systems are manifestations of human adaptation to the natural environment. City size distributions are the expression of hierarchical processes acting upon urban systems. In this paper, we test the entire city size distributions for the southeastern and southwestern United States (1990), as well as the size classes in these regions for power law behavior. We interpret the differences in the size of the regional city size distributions as the manifestation of variable growth dynamics dependent upon city size. Size classes in the city size distributions are snapshots of stable states within urban systems in flux.

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization↗

Biotic and abiotic factors related to rainbow smelt recruitment in the Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior, 1978-1997

Lake Superior rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) recruitment to 12-13 months of age in the Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior varied by a factor of 9.3 during 1978-1997. Management agencies have sought models that accurately predict recruitment, but no satisfactory models had previously been developed. In this study, modeling was conducted to determine which factors best explained recruitment variability. The Ricker stock-recruitment model derived from only the paired stock and recruit data accounted for 63% of the variability in recruitment data. The functional relationship that accounted for the greatest amount of recruitment variation (81%) included rainbow smelt stock size, May rainfall, and bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ) biomass. Model results were interpreted to mean that recruitment was affected negatively by increased river flows from increased rainfall, and affected positively by the biomass of bloater, and those results were interpreted to mean that bloater mediated the effects of lake trout predation on rainbow smelt recruits. Model results were also interpreted to mean that stock size caused compensatory, density-dependent mortality on rainbow smelt recruits. Correlations observed here may be of value to managers seeking approaches to either enhance or control populations of this species, which is not indigenous to the Great Lakes.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

The Augustine magmatic system as revealed by seismic tomography and relocated earthquake hypocenters from 1994 through 2009

We incorporate 14 years of earthquake data from the Alaska Volcano Observatory with data from a 1975 controlled‐source seismic experiment to obtain the three‐dimensional P and S wave velocity structure and the first high‐precision earthquake locations at Augustine Volcano to be calculated in a fully three‐dimensional velocity model. Velocity tomography shows two main features beneath Augustine: a narrow, high‐velocity column beneath the summit, extending from ∼2 km depth to the surface, and elevated velocities on the south flank. Our relocation results allow a thorough analysis of the spatio‐temoral patterns of seismicity and the relationship to the magmatic and eruptive activity. Background seismicity is centered beneath the summit at an average depth of 0.6 km above sea level. In the weeks leading to the January 2006 eruption of Augustine, seismicity focused on a NW‐SE line along the trend of an inflating dike. A series of drumbeat earthquakes occurred in the early weeks of the eruption, indicating further magma transport through the same dike system. During the six months following the onset of the eruption, the otherwise quiescent region 1 to 5 km below sea level centered beneath the summit became seismically active with two groups of earthquakes, differentiated by frequency content. The deep longer‐period earthquakes occurred during the eruption and are interpreted as resulting from the movement of magma toward the summit, and the post‐eruptive shorter‐period earthquakes may be due to the relaxation of an emptied magma tube. The seismicity subsequently returned to its normal background rates and patterns.

Alaska↗

The emplacement of ophiolites by collision

Ophiolites, recognized in most of the world's orogenic belts, are generally interpreted to be oceanic crust and upper mantle (lithosphere) fragments that have been incorporated into continental margins at consuming plate boundaries. We suggest that the mechanism for ophiolite emplacement is the same in both the Alpine and Andean-type orogenes. In both geological settings, obduction of oceanic lithosphere onto the continental lithosphere is caused by the convergence of light, buoyant bodies such as oceanic plateaus, continental slivers, island arcs, or old hot spot traces. For example, the Troodos ophiolite complex, previously interpreted by some workers as resulting from continental collision, may have been emplaced by the collision of Cyprus with the Eratosthenes Plateau embedded in the oceanic eastern Mediterranean crust. On the other hand, the Upper Jurassic Coast Range Ophiolites of California, previously interpreted as resulting from typical oceanic subduction, may be the result of a continuous injection of thick nonsubductable packages of light, continentally derived sedimentary rocks, seamounts, and plateaus into the subduction zones. Many other ophiolite complexes may be similarly related to accreted terranes.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

A qualitative evaluation of Landsat imagery of Australian rangelands

The capability of multidate, multispectral ERTS-1 imagery of three different rangeland areas within Australia was evaluated for its usefulness in preparing inventories of rangeland types, assessing on a broad scale range condition within these rangeland types, and assessing the response of rangelands to rainfall events over large areas. For the three divergent rangeland test areas, centered on Broken W, Alice Springs and Kalgoorlie, detailed interpretation of the imagery only partially satisfied the information requirements set. It was most useful in the Broken Hill area where fenceline contrasts in range condition were readily visible. At this and the other sites an overstorey of trees made interpretation difficult. Whilst the low resolution characteristics and the lack of stereoscopic coverage hindered interpretation it was felt that this type of imagery with its vast coverage, present low cost and potential for repeated sampling is a useful addition to conventional aerial photography for all rangeland types.

The Australian Rangeland Journal↗

Depositional environments of the Pennsylvanian Pottsville Formation in the Black Warrior basin of Alabama

The Pennsylvanian Pottsville Formation of the Black Warrior basin in Alabama comprises as much as 3000 m of shale, sandstone, and coal. The boundary between the informal units of the lower Pottsville and the upper Pottsville is the base of the Black Creek coal group, in the middle part of the section. Lower Pottsville strata include orthoquartzitic sandstone, shale, and coal interpreted as having been deposited in a barrier/back-barrier setting. Upper Pottsville strata consist of lithic arenite, shale, coal, and minor amounts of orthoquartzite, and are interpreted as representing a lateral gradation from lower delta plain to barrier bar. Previous studies indicated northward sediment dispersal. The change in sedimentation patterns in the middle part of the Pottsville suggests introduction into the basin of sediments from an eastern source during Pottsville deposition.

Journal of Sedimentary Petrology↗

HRSC: High resolution stereo camera

The High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) on Mars Express has delivered a wealth of image data, amounting to over 2.5 TB from the start of the mapping phase in January 2004 to September 2008. In that time, more than a third of Mars was covered at a resolution of 10-20 m/pixel in stereo and colour. After five years in orbit, HRSC is still in excellent shape, and it could continue to operate for many more years. HRSC has proven its ability to close the gap between the low-resolution Viking image data and the high-resolution Mars Orbiter Camera images, leading to a global picture of the geological evolution of Mars that is now much clearer than ever before. Derived highest-resolution terrain model data have closed major gaps and provided an unprecedented insight into the shape of the surface, which is paramount not only for surface analysis and geological interpretation, but also for combination with and analysis of data from other instruments, as well as in planning for future missions. This chapter presents the scientific output from data analysis and highlevel data processing, complemented by a summary of how the experiment is conducted by the HRSC team members working in geoscience, atmospheric science, photogrammetry and spectrophotometry. Many of these contributions have been or will be published in peer-reviewed journals and special issues. They form a cross-section of the scientific output, either by summarising the new geoscientific picture of Mars provided by HRSC or by detailing some of the topics of data analysis concerning photogrammetry, cartography and spectral data analysis.

Conference Paper↗

Origins and nature of large explosive eruptions in the lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii: Insights from ash characterization and geochemistry

Several powerful explosive eruptions have taken place in the populated lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea within the past ∼750 years. These have created distinctive landforms, including a tephra rim enclosing Puʻulena Crater immediately south of the Puna Geothermal Venture power station, a tuff cone at Kapoho Crater near the eastern cape of the Island of Hawaiʻi, and a set of littoral cones, the Sand Hill in Nānāwale, where the 1840 lava flow poured into the ocean. Kapoho Crater tuff cone is the largest of these recent pyroclastic features. Mineral, glass, and melt inclusion analyses of tuff cone ash and later fissure-related scoriaceous materials also found within the crater indicate slightly evolved basaltic magmas (1120–1130 °C) that are compositionally similar to parts of the effusive lower East Rift Zone eruptions in 1955 and 2018. Tuff cone magmas were stored at depths of ∼2.5–3.5 km and had pre-eruptive volatile contents (0.5–0.8 wt% H 2 O, 280–340 ppm CO 2 , 1400–1800 ppm S) similar to other Kīlauea eruptions (e.g., 1959, 1960), suggesting that internal magma properties were unlikely to account for the unusual explosiveness of this eruption. Tephra componentry, grain-size analyses, and field observations confirm that the cone grew during a phreatomagmatic eruption mostly of vitric ash, probably where a fissure opened across the coastline or shallow ocean floor nearby. Supporting this hypothesis is the identification of at least two genera of marine diatoms within tuff cone strata. Sand Hill littoral cone ash is also vitric like that of Kapoho Crater, but distinctly coarser with abundant fluidal ejecta represented. In contrast, the Puʻulena Crater eruption deposited lithic ash and related blocks with minor juvenile magmatic contribution; a phreatomagmatic eruption that was dominantly phreatic. Differences in eruption styles are related to unique mechanics that tephra analyses help us interpret. While powerful explosive eruptions in the lower East Rift Zone are rare, they present a definite future hazard for inhabitants in this part of Hawaii.

Hawaii↗

High rates of inflation during a noneruptive episode of seismic unrest at Semisopochnoi Volcano, Alaska in 2014–2015

Magma intrusion rate is a key parameter in eruption triggering but is poorly quantified in existing geodetic studies. Here we examine two episodes of rapid inflation in this context. Two noneruptive microseismic swarms were recorded at Semisopochnoi Volcano, Alaska in 2014–2015. We use differential SAR techniques and TerraSAR‐X images to document surface deformation from 2011 to 2015, which comprises island‐wide radial inflation totaling ~25 cm (+/−1 cm) line of sight displacement in 2014–2015. Multiple source geometries are tested in an inversion of the deformation data, and InSAR data are best fit by a spheroid trending to the northeast and plunging to the southeast, with a major axis of ~4 km and minor axes of ~1 km, directly under the central caldera of Semisopochnoi. In 2014, a modeled influx of 0.043 km 3 of magma caused line of sight displacement of ~17 cm. This magma was stored at a depth of ~8 km, until 2015 when 0.029 km 3 was added. Along with the definition of inflation source parameters, the recorded seismic events are relocated using differential travel times. These relocated events outline a linear aseismic area within a larger zone of shallow (<10 km) seismicity. This aseismic region aligns with the centroid of the deformation model. Based on these geodetic and seismic models, the plumbing system at Semisopochnoi is interpreted as a spheroidal magma storage zone at a depth of ˜8 km below a linear feature of partial melt. The observed deformation and seismicity appear to result from rapid injection into this main storage region.

Alaska↗

Earthquake-derived seismic velocity changes during the 2018 caldera collapse of Kīlauea volcano

The 2018 Kīlauea caldera collapse produced extraordinary sequences of seismicity and deformation, with 62 episodic collapse events which significantly altered the landscape of the summit region. Despite decades of focused scientific studies at Kīlauea, detailed information about the internal structure of the volcano is limited. Recently developed techniques in seismic interferometry can be used to monitor the internal structure of an active volcano more directly by detecting subtle spatiotemporal changes in seismic wave velocity, but their utility relies on accurate interpretations of the underlying phenomena causing those velocity changes. Here, we retrospectively apply repeating-earthquake-based seismic interferometry to the 2018 Kīlauea eruption sequence. We find that seismic velocities changed over two distinct time scales: a sudden increase followed by a slower decrease in velocity in the hours following each collapse event, and a gradual, long-term decrease in velocity over several weeks that ceased approximately 1 month prior to the end of the eruption. Modeling suggests that short-term changes can be explained by magma reservoir pressurization which specifically closed vertical ring fractures. Long-term changes are related to subsidence of the caldera and likely include the influence of inelastic strain from the formation of new fractures. These observations provide new insights into the evolution of Kīlauea during its progressive collapse and will inform future interpretations for near-real-time monitoring at hazardous volcanoes around the world using similar techniques, especially where a dominant fracture orientation is present.

Hawaii↗

Comparison of soil thickness in a zero-order basin in the Oregon Coast Range using a soil probe and electrical resistivity tomography

Accurate estimation of the soil thickness distribution in steepland drainage basins is essential for understanding ecosystem and subsurface response to infiltration. One important aspect of this characterization is assessing the heavy and antecedent rainfall conditions that lead to shallow landsliding. In this paper, we investigate the direct current (DC) resistivity method as a tool for quickly estimating soil thickness over a steep (33–40°) zero-order basin in the Oregon Coast Range, a landslide prone region. Point measurements throughout the basin showed bedrock depths between 0.55 and 3.2 m. Resistivity of soil and bedrock samples collected from the site was measured for degrees of saturation between 40 and 92%. Resistivity of the soil was typically higher than that of the bedrock for degrees of saturation lower than 70%. Results from the laboratory measurements and point-depth measurements were used in a numerical model to evaluate the resistivity contrast at the soil-bedrock interface. A decreasing-with-depth resistivity contrast was apparent at the interface in the modeling results. At the field site, three transects were surveyed where coincident ground truth measurements of bedrock depth were available, to test the accuracy of the method. The same decreasing-with-depth resistivity trend that was apparent in the model was also present in the survey data. The resistivity contour of between 1,000 and 2,000 Ωm that marked the top of the contrast was our interpreted bedrock depth in the survey data. Kriged depth-to-bedrock maps were created from both the field-measured ground truth obtained with a soil probe and interpreted depths from the resistivity tomography, and these were compared for accuracy graphically. Depths were interpolated as far as 16.5 m laterally from the resistivity survey lines with root mean squared error (RMSE) = 27 cm between the measured and interpreted depth at those locations. Using several transects and analysis of the subsurface material properties, the direct current (DC) resistivity method is shown to be able to delineate bedrock depth trends within the drainage basin.

Oregon↗

Variability and consistency in wildfire susceptibility: Insights from a national compilation

Background Wildfire risk in the United States is rising and remains a land management priority. The quantitative wildfire risk assessment (QWRA) framework integrates fuels, topography, weather and values at risk to estimate the potential change in value from wildfire. Within this, response functions (RFs) represent how values respond to fire intensity. These are often based on expert judgment, but variation across assessments is unclear. Aims This study uses data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse to characterize consistency and variation across categories and contexts. Methods We applied descriptive statistics to summarize RFs, using tables, box-and-whisker plots and heat maps stratified by highly valued resource or asset (HVRA) category and spatial scale. Key results RFs and value definitions vary, especially for ecosystem-related resources. Some functions, such as for buildings in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), translate well across contexts, while others require more input. Conclusions Some functions are broadly transferable, while others need customization. This analysis provides references and starting points for improvement to RFs in QWRAs. Interpretations Expanding the clearinghouse and dataset and building more transparency in expert elicitation can build trust among communities, agencies and end-users, and can support efficient use of limited resources to mitigate wildfire risk.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

A ‘how-to’ guide for estimating animal diel activity using hierarchical models

Animal diel activity patterns can aid understanding of (a) how species behaviourally adapt to anthropogenic and natural disturbances, (b) mechanisms of species co-existence through temporal partitioning, and (c) community or ecosystem effects of diel activity shifts. Activity patterns often vary spatially, a feature ignored by the kernel density estimators (KDEs) currently used for estimating diel activity. Ignoring this source of heterogeneity may lead to biased estimates of uncertainty and misleading conclusions regarding the drivers of diel activity. Thus, there is a need for more flexible statistical approaches for estimating activity patterns and testing hypotheses regarding their biotic and abiotic drivers. We illustrate how trigonometric terms and cyclic cubic splines combined with hierarchical models can provide a valuable alternative to KDEs. Like KDEs, these models accommodate circular data, but they can also account for site-to-site and other sources of variability, correlation amongst repeated measures, and variable sampling effort. They can also more readily quantify and test hypotheses related to the effects of covariates on activity patterns. Through empirical case studies, we illustrate how hierarchical models can quantify changes in activity levels due to seasonality and in response to biotic and abiotic factors (e.g. anthropogenic stressors and co-occurrence). We also describe frequentist and Bayesian approaches for quantifying site-specific (conditional) and population-averaged (marginal) activity patterns. We provide guidelines and tutorials with detailed step-by-step instructions for fitting and interpreting hierarchical models applied to time-stamped data, such as those recorded by camera traps and audio recorders. We conclude that this approach offers a viable, flexible, and effective alternative to KDEs when modelling animal activity patterns.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗