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USGS2023

Integrated science strategy for assessing and monitoring water availability and migratory birds for terminal lakes across the Great Basin, United States

Executive Summary In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established the Saline Lake Ecosystems Integrated Water Availability Assessment (IWAAs) to monitor and assess the hydrology of terminal lakes in the Great Basin and the migratory birds and other wildlife dependent on those habitats. Scientists from across the USGS (with specialties in water quantity, water quality, limnology, avian biology, data science, landscape ecology, and science communication) formed the Saline Lake Ecosystems IWAAs Team. The team has developed this regional strategic science plan to guide data collection and assessment activities at terminal lakes in the Great Basin. The U.S. Congress requested the USGS to establish the Saline Lake Ecosystems IWAAs in response to historically low water levels at terminal lakes and associated wetlands across the Great Basin. Not all Great Basin terminal lakes have high salinity; however, all terminal lakes occur in endorheic, closed, basins with no surface-water outflow. Low lake levels across the Great Basin are the result of increased water use for agriculture and municipalities, drought conditions, and a warming climate. Great Basin terminal lake water extents have decreased by as much as 90 percent over the last 150 years, and terminal lake wetlands have decreased in area by as much as 47 percent since 1984. Lake elevations and wetland areas are primarily supported by freshwater inputs from snowmelt feeding upgradient rivers, streams, and springs. These freshwater inputs have been severely reduced because of continued and increased surface-water diversions and surface-water capture through groundwater pumping for agriculture, mining, and public supply as well as unprecedented drought conditions and warming temperatures related to climate change. Water quality, specifically salinity, is highly variable for terminal lakes of the Great Basin, and this variability is a result of the balance between freshwater inflow and evaporation. Variability of salinity at each of the terminal lakes can be affected by lake morphology, hydrogeologic features of the basin, annual variability in weather patterns, and changes in upgradient water use. Hypersaline terminal lakes provide abundant food resources such as brine shrimp and brine flies that support nesting and migrating birds. The density and composition of invertebrates are closely tied to lake salinity. Increased salinity can exceed the tolerance of invertebrates, severely limiting their biomass. In contrast, decreased salinity can lead to altered invertebrate community composition, reducing the abundance of optimal avian prey resources. Great Basin terminal lake ecosystems, including open-water and adjacent aquatic and terrestrial environments, provide resources necessary to sustain many animal populations throughout the year. Although a variety of taxa use terminal lakes, these ecosystems are of acute importance for the millions of migratory waterbirds (for example, shorebirds, wading birds, and waterfowl) dependent on the network of terminal lakes and their associated wetlands. Migratory birds transiting the Pacific and Central Flyways use Great Basin terminal lake ecosystems throughout the year to feed, nest, and transit between wintering and breeding ranges. As such, successful conservation of birds and their habitats requires coordinated management of water and habitats across the Great Basin network of terminal lakes and wetlands. The linkages between water availability and ecosystem vulnerability of terminal lakes in the Great Basin are not well understood. The vulnerability of terminal lakes is related to the factors driving change and adaptive capacity of the lake ecosystem. Saline lake ecosystems are vulnerable when changes in water quantity affect ecosystem function. Water quantity affects salinity, which affects food webs and habitat; these linkages can be investigated with water-quality and food web monitoring. Water quantity also affects inundated habitat, which can be quantified through remote sensing. It is necessary to quantify hydroclimatic and water use controls on water availability to terminal lakes to assess the response of the ecosystems. Remotely sensed data can provide a broad-scale and long-term synoptic view of terminal lake hydrologic characteristics, but ground observations are required to interpret changes in water quality and ecological functions. Some terminal lake basins have ongoing monitoring and modeling efforts within the Great Basin (for example, Great Salt Lake, Carson River Basin), yet most monitoring locations are hydrologically upgradient and too far away from lake inflows to provide an accurate assessment of hydrological trends for the lake ecosystems. Other terminal lakes have no long-term hydrological monitoring in their respective watersheds (for example, Lake Abert). Ecological data collection in the Great Basin is also insufficient to understand how many birds exist on the landscape, how birds use the mosaic of terminal-lake habitats as an interconnected system, and how Great Basin terminal lakes are linked to the larger continental system of the Pacific and Central Flyways. Across agencies and organizations, tracking bird movement, abundance, and diversity is inconsistent, with some lakes having once- or twice-a-year bird survey efforts and a few locations having more intensive ecological data-gathering efforts (for example, Great Salt Lake, Lake Abert). Bridging hydrological and ecological information gaps will improve understanding of the trends in water supply and water quality, habitat availability and usage, and impacts on vulnerable waterbird species, all of which would be used by managers in coordinated conservation of this unique network of terminal-lake habitats. The terminal lakes of the Great Basin are part of the Basin and Range physiographic province that extends from the Colorado Plateau on the east to the Sierra Nevada on the west, and from the Snake River Plain on the north to the Garlock fault and the Mojave block on the south. The Great Basin is larger than 650,000 square kilometers and encompasses most of the State of Nevada but also extends to western Utah, eastern California, southeastern Idaho, southwestern Wyoming, and southeastern Oregon. The climate is arid to semiarid with a hydrologic regime that is snowmelt dominated, providing as much as 75 percent of total annual runoff for the region. Terminal lakes of the Great Basin occupy the lowest areas of closed (endorheic) drainage basins, such that lake levels and water quality respond rapidly to surface-water inflow. Terminal lakes provide local and regional economic value to the States in the Great Basin, including mineral extraction, aquaculture, public works, and recreational uses. As an example, assessments of Great Salt Lake’s ecological health and economic impact find hemispheric importance for the former and regional importance for the latter. Great Salt Lake creates about 7,000 jobs and $2 billion of economic output per year, most of which would be lost with further declines in lake level. The objectives of this Science Strategy are threefold: (1) to identify how changing water availability affects the quality, diversity, and abundance of habitats supporting continental waterbird populations; (2) to highlight the scientific monitoring and assessment needs of Great Basin terminal lakes; and (3) to support coordinated management and conservation actions to benefit those ecosystems, migratory birds, and other wildlife. There are long-term hydrological, ecological, and societal challenges associated with terminal lakes ecosystems in the Great Basin. This Science Strategy benefits partners by providing a conceptual model, nested at different spatial extents, that identifies key scientific information needs to inform coordinated implementation of management and conservation plans within and among hydrologic basins to address these complex challenges.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2015

Food web heterogeneity and succession in created saltmarshes

1. Ecological restoration must achieve functional as well as structural recovery. Functional metrics for reestablishment of trophic interactions can be used to complement traditional monitoring of structural attributes. In addition, topographic effects on food web structure provide added information within a restoration context; often, created sites may require spatial heterogeneity to effectively match structure and function of natural habitats. 2. We addressed both of these issues in our study of successional development of benthic food web structure, with focus on bottom–up driven changes in macroinvertebrate consumer assemblages in the salt marshes of the Venice Lagoon, Italy. We combined quantified estimates of the changing community composition with stable isotope data (13C:12C and 15N:14N) to compare the general trophic structure between created (2–14 years) marshes and reference sites and along topographic elevation gradients within salt marshes. 3. Macrofaunal invertebrate consumers exhibited local, habitat-specific trophic patterns. Stable isotope-based trophic structure changed with increasing marsh age, in particular with regards to mid-elevation (Salicornia) habitats. In young marshes, the mid-elevation consumer signatures resembled those of unvegetated ponds. The mid elevation of older and natural marshes had a more distinct Salicornia-zone food web, occasionally resembling that of the highest (Sarcocornia-dominated) elevation. In summary, this indicates that primary producers and availability of vascular plant detritus structure consumer trophic interactions and the flow of carbon. 4. Functionally different consumers, subsurface-feeding detritivores (Oligochaeta) and surface grazers (Hydrobia sp.), showed distinct but converging trajectories of isotopic change over time, indicating that successional development may be asymmetric between ‘brown’ (detrital) guilds and ‘green’ (grazing) guilds in the food web. 5. Synthesis and applications. Created marsh food webs converged into a natural state over about a decade, with successional shifts seen in both consumer community composition and stable isotope space. Strong spatial effects were noted, highlighting the utility of stable isotopes to evaluate functional equivalence in spatially heterogeneous systems. Understanding the recovery of functional properties such as food web support, and their inherent spatial variability, is key to planning and managing successful habitat restoration.

Adriatic Sea, Venice Lagoon↗
USGS2009

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗
USGS2012

A caveat regarding diatom-inferred nitrogen concentrations in oligotrophic lakes

Atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr) has enriched oligotrophic lakes with nitrogen (N) in many regions of the world and elicited dramatic changes in diatom community structure. The lakewater concentrations of nitrate that cause these community changes remain unclear, raising interest in the development of diatom-based transfer functions to infer nitrate. We developed a diatom calibration set using surface sediment samples from 46 high-elevation lakes across the Rocky Mountains of the western US, a region spanning an N deposition gradient from very low to moderate levels (<1 to 3.2 kg Nr ha −1 year −1 in wet deposition). Out of the fourteen measured environmental variables for these 46 lakes, ordination analysis identified that nitrate, specific conductance, total phosphorus, and hypolimnetic water temperature were related to diatom distributions. A transfer function was developed for nitrate and applied to a sedimentary diatom profile from Heart Lake in the central Rockies. The model coefficient of determination (bootstrapping validation) of 0.61 suggested potential for diatom-inferred reconstructions of lakewater nitrate concentrations over time, but a comparison of observed versus diatom-inferred nitrate values revealed the poor performance of this model at low nitrate concentrations. Resource physiology experiments revealed that nitrogen requirements of two key taxa were opposite to nitrate optima defined in the transfer function. Our data set reveals two underlying ecological constraints that impede the development of nitrate transfer functions in oligotrophic lakes: (1) even in lakes with nitrate concentrations below quantification (<1 μg L −1 ), diatom assemblages were already dominated by species indicative of moderate N enrichment; (2) N-limited oligotrophic lakes switch to P limitation after receiving only modest inputs of reactive N, shifting the controls on diatom species changes along the length of the nitrate gradient. These constraints suggest that quantitative inferences of nitrate from diatom assemblages will likely require experimental approaches.

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Seasonal and hydrologic variation influences habitat and functional structure of stream fish assemblages

Introduction: Hydrologic variability is a key driver of ecological structure in lotic systems, shaping habitat conditions, taxonomic diversity, and the functional traits that mediate species’ persistence and performance (e.g., reproductive success). While many studies examine taxonomic responses to variation in flows, few evaluate how spatiotemporal hydrologic variation influences the functional organization within stream fish communities. Methods: We quantified seasonal habitat structure and functional trait diversity of fish assemblages across six Ozark Plateau headwater streams representing two contrasting flow regimes: Groundwater Flashy and Runoff/Intermittent Flashy. Fish and habitat data were collected seasonally during a dry year (2002) and a wet year (2003). Functional space was constructed using PCoA of morphological, ecological, and life-history traits, and functional diversity was measured using community weighted means (CWMs), functional richness (FRic), functional evenness (FEve), and functional divergence (FDiv). Results: We found that habitat structure differed strongly by flow regime and season, with Runoff/Intermittent streams exhibiting pronounced reductions in depth, area, and velocity, while groundwater streams remained structurally stable. Functional identity of assemblages was similar across flow regimes, dominated by benthic, hydrodynamic taxa with opportunistic and periodic life-history strategies. However, functional structure differed significantly: FEve and FDiv were consistently lower in Runoff/Intermittent Flashy streams in both years, indicating assemblage dominance of species with similar trait combinations and reduced trait partitioning under variable flow. FRic and taxonomic richness remained stable across seasons and flow regimes, suggesting high functional redundancy despite species turnover. Discussion: Together, results show that flow regime mediates both habitat structural stability and functional organization. As climatic warming and extreme drought increase hydrologic instability in headwaters, functional trait approaches provide a sensitive tool for detecting losses of functional roles that may not be evident by using taxonomic metrics alone.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗
USGS2017

Matching seed to site by climate similarity: techniques to prioritize plant materials development and use in restoration

Land management agencies are increasing the use of native plant materials for vegetation treatments to restore ecosystem function and maintain natural ecological integrity. This shift toward the use of natives has highlighted a need to increase the diversity of materials available. A key problem is agreeing on how many, and which, new accessions should be developed. Here we describe new methods that address this problem. Our methods use climate data to calculate a climate similarity index between two points in a defined extent. This index can be used to predict relative performance of available accessions at a target site. In addition, the index can be used in combination with standard cluster analysis algorithms to quantify and maximize climate coverage (mean climate similarity), given a modeled range extent and a specified number of accessions. We demonstrate the utility of this latter feature by applying it to the extents of 11 western North American species with proven or potential use in restoration. First, a species-specific seed transfer map can be readily generated for a species by predicting performance for accessions currently available; this map can be readily updated to accommodate new accessions. Next, the increase in climate coverage achieved by adding successive accessions can be explored, yielding information that managers can use to balance ecological and economic considerations in determining how many accessions to develop. This approach identifies sampling sites, referred to as climate centers, which contribute unique, complementary, climate coverage to accessions on hand, thus providing explicit sampling guidance for both germplasm preservation and research. We examine how these and other features of our approach add to existing methods used to guide plant materials development and use. Finally, we discuss how these new methods provide a framework that could be used to coordinate native plant materials development, evaluation, and use across agencies, regions, and research groups.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2021

Biocrust and the soil surface: Influence of climate, disturbance, and biocrust recovery on soil surface roughness

Biocrust communities promote soil surface roughness, a key functional characteristic for soil ecology. However, the spatial scales at which biocrust communities contribute to surface roughness are not well understood. To refine our understanding of the spatial dynamics between biocrust and soil surface roughness, we used mm-resolution terrestrial LiDAR to measure micro-topographic roughness at seven sub-meter, 3-dimensional kernels (spatial scales) for undisturbed and disturbed biocrusts within the cool Great Basin and the hot Chihuahuan Deserts of western North America. This multi-scalar approach applied within the different desert regions allowed us to explore two objectives: 1) assess the relative importance of climate and disturbance on biocrust roughness, and 2) evaluate how soil surface roughness evolves with biocrust recovery. For objective 1, we found that undisturbed cool desert biocrust was up to three times rougher than hot desert biocrust. Much of the difference in roughness between the two desert biocrust communities appeared to be from climate or other regional factors. However, positive correlations between roughness and biocrust indicators, including soil chlorophyll-a and the field-based Level of Development (LOD) index, suggested that differences in roughness at spatial scales ≤ 10 cm are directly related to biocrust development. Mechanical disturbance aimed at removing biocrust resulted in significant reductions in roughness and removed much of the observed differences in roughness between cool and hot desert soils. We evaluated biocrust recovery within the cool desert study area two years after mechanical disturbance and found that the disturbed soil increased in roughness up-to 300%. The increased surface roughness at spatial scales ≤ 10 cm were positively correlated with increased aggregate stability and indicators of biocrust reestablishment. We found that topographic change area was also an important contributor to roughness at all spatial scales, particularly at spatial scales ≥ 20 cm where it was the most important factor evaluated. These results provide insight into how biocrust interacts with other biophysical processes to influence soil surface roughness and how soil surfaces evolve at time scales relevant to soil restoration activities.

New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2025

Host preferences of non-native Acalolepta aesthetica (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) on the Island of Hawai'i

1. Understanding the host preferences of non-native polyphagous insects is a key step in anticipating their impacts. 2. We apply a technique from wildlife ecology, a resource selection function, to quantify the host preferences of Acalolepta aesthetica Olliff (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae: Lamiinae) in its non-native range on the Island of Hawaiʻi. We then visually surveyed its preferred host to map its distributional extent and conducted laboratory no-choice tests to assess risks to common native woody species. 3. The preferred host of A. aesthetica was the state tree, Aleurites moluccanus (L.) Willd., the kukui (or candlenut). Cacao ( Theobroma cacao L.) was the second most preferred host. Infestations were also observed in Citrus species, Artocarpus altilis (Parkinson) Fosberg (ʻulu or breadfruit) and Persea americana Mill. (avocado), but preferences among these taxa were statistically indistinguishable. 4. Acalolepta aesthetica females oviposited on all tested species in no-choice trials, but larvae growing within ʻōhiʻa ( Metrosideros polymorpha Gaudich.) and koa ( Acacia koa A. Gray) died. It therefore poses a low risk to these two tree species, which are foundational to Hawaiian native forests. Acalolepta aesthetica was able to complete its development within ʻōlapa ( Cheirodendron trigynum (Gaudich.) A. Heller), which could be monitored if the distribution of A. aesthetica spreads to native forests. 5. The host species preferred by A. aesthetica are highly valued for agricultural, horticultural and cultural uses. Developing monitoring and management techniques for this cerambycid and employing strong biosecurity could prevent human-mediated spread and limit negative impacts to other Hawaiian Islands, the U.S. mainland, and the world.

Hawaii↗
USGS2016

Comparison of benthos and plankton for selected areas of concern and non-areas of concern in western Lake Michigan Rivers and Harbors in 2012

Recent data are lacking to assess whether impairments still exist at four of Wisconsin’s largest Lake Michigan harbors that were designated as Areas of Concern (AOCs) in the late 1980s due to sediment contamination and multiple Beneficial Use Impairments (BUIs), such as those affecting benthos (macroinvertebrates) and plankton (zooplankton and phytoplankton) communities. During three seasonal sampling events (“seasons”) in May through August 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey collected sediment benthos and water plankton at the four AOCs as well as six less-degraded non-AOCs along the western Lake Michigan shoreline to assess whether AOC communities were degraded in comparison to non-AOC communities. The four AOCs are the Lower Menominee River, the Lower Green Bay and Fox River, the Sheboygan River, and the Milwaukee Estuary. Due to their size and complexity, multiple locations or “subsites” were sampled within the Lower Green Bay and Fox River AOC (Lower Green Bay, the Fox River near Allouez, and the Fox River near De Pere) and within the Milwaukee Estuary AOC (the Milwaukee River, the Menomonee River, and the Milwaukee Harbor) and single locations were sampled at the other AOCs and non-AOCs. The six non-AOCs are the Escanaba River in Michigan, and the Oconto River, Ahnapee River, Kewaunee River, Manitowoc River, and Root River in Wisconsin. Benthos samples were collected by using Hester-Dendy artificial substrates deployed for 30 days and by using a dredge sampler; zooplankton were collected by net and phytoplankton by whole-water sampler. Except for the Lower Green Bay and Milwaukee Harbor locations, communities at each AOC were compared to all non-AOCs as a group and to paired non-AOCs using taxa relative abundances and metrics, including richness, diversity, and an Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI, for Hester-Dendy samples only). Benthos samples collected during one or more seasons were rated as degraded for at least one metric at all AOCs. In the Milwaukee Estuary, benthos richness was lower in the Milwaukee River subsite spring and summer samples and in the Menomonee River subsite spring sample relative to the paired non-AOCs. Benthos diversity and IBIs at the Menomonee River subsite and IBIs at the Milwaukee River subsite and Sheboygan River were significantly lower than at all non-AOCs as a group across all seasons and therefore were rated as degraded. In addition, IBIs at the Lower Menominee River were significantly lower than those at the paired non-AOCs during all seasons and were therefore rated degraded. Benthos at both Fox River subsites and the Milwaukee River subsite were significantly different from their paired non-AOCs during all three seasons, based on a comparison of the relative abundances of taxa using multivariate testing. Metrics for plankton at AOCs were not significantly lower than those at the paired or group non-AOCs during all seasons; however, zooplankton richness in spring at the Sheboygan River and in fall at the Menomonee River subsite was rated as degraded in comparison to paired non-AOCs. Also, zooplankton richness in fall at the Fox River near Allouez subsite and in spring at the Milwaukee River subsite was rated degraded overall because values were lower than at all non-AOCs as a group and lower than at the paired non-AOCs. Zooplankton diversity in fall at the Fox River near Allouez subsite and the Lower Menominee River was rated degraded in comparison to paired non-AOC comparison sites. Zooplankton communities at the Fox River near Allouez subsite were significantly different from the paired non-AOCs when multivariate comparisons were made without rotifers other than A. priodonta . Overall, benthos and zooplankton BUIs remained at the AOCs in 2012 but no AOCs with a phytoplankton BUI were rated degraded in comparison to non-AOCs. The use of a multiple ecological measures, structural and functional, and multiple statistical analyses, biological metrics and multivariate statistics, provided assessments that defined 2012 status of communities relative to less-impaired non-AOCs in the Great Lakes area.

Michigan↗
USGS2010

Grain-size evolution in suspended sediment and deposits from the 2004 and 2008 controlled-flood experiments in Marble and Grand Canyons, Arizona

Since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, the hydrology, sediment supply, and distribution and size of modern alluvial deposits in the Colorado River through Grand Canyon have changed substantially (e.g., Howard and Dolan, 1981; Johnson and Carothers, 1987; Webb et al., 1999; Rubin et al., 2002; Topping et al., 2000, 2003; Wright et al., 2005; Hazel et al., 2006). The dam has reduced the fluvial sediment supply at the upstream boundary of Grand Canyon National Park by about 95 percent. Regulation of river discharge by dam operations has important implications for the storage and redistribution of sediment in the Colorado River corridor. In the absence of natural floods, sediment is not deposited at elevations that regularly received sediment before dam closure. There has been a systemwide decrease in the size and number of subaerially exposed fluvial sand deposits since the 1960s, punctuated by episodic aggradation during the exceptional high-flow intervals in the early 1980s and by sediment input from occasional tributary floods (Beus and others, 1985; Schmidt and Graf, 1990; Kearsley et al., 1994; Schmidt et al., 2004; Wright et al., 2005; Hazel et al., 2006). Fluvial sandbars are an important component of riparian ecology that, among other functions, enclose eddy backwaters that form native-fish habitat, provide a source for eolian sand that protects some archaeological sites, and are used as campsites by thousands of river-runners annually (Rubin et al., 1990; Kearsley et al., 1994; Neal et al., 2000; Wright et al., 2005; Draut and Rubin, 2008).

Arizona↗
USGS2008

A test of the cross-scale resilience model: Functional richness in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems

Ecological resilience has been proposed to be generated, in part, in the discontinuous structure of complex systems. Environmental discontinuities are reflected in discontinuous, aggregated animal body mass distributions. Diversity of functional groups within body mass aggregations (scales) and redundancy of functional groups across body mass aggregations (scales) has been proposed to increase resilience. We evaluate that proposition by analyzing mammalian and avian communities of Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. We first determined that body mass distributions for each animal community were discontinuous. We then calculated the variance in richness of function across aggregations in each community, and compared observed values with distributions created by 1000 simulations using a null of random distribution of function, with the same n, number of discontinuities and number of functional groups as the observed data. Variance in the richness of functional groups across scales was significantly lower in real communities than in simulations in eight of nine sites. The distribution of function across body mass aggregations in the animal communities we analyzed was non-random, and supports the contentions of the cross-scale resilience model. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Complexity↗
USGS2024

Climate change amplifies ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity

Understanding how climate change will contribute to ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity is critical for informing natural resource management, yet complicated by interactions with wildfire and biological invasions. Here, we assessed potential future changes in sagebrush ecological integrity under a range of scenarios using an individual plant-based simulation model, integrated with remotely sensed estimates of current sagebrush ecological integrity. The simulation model allowed us to estimate how climate change, wildfire, and invasive annuals interact to alter the potential abundance of key plant functional types that influence sagebrush ecological integrity: sagebrush, perennial grasses, and annual grasses. Our results suggest that climate driven reductions in sagebrush ecological integrity may occur over broader areas than increases in sagebrush ecological integrity. Declines in sagebrush ecological integrity were most likely in hot and dry regions while increases were more likely in cool and wet regions. Increases in wildfire probability, largely driven by increasing invasive annual grass abundance, resulted in projected declines in sagebrush abundance and sagebrush ecological integrity in some regions, particularly the Great Basin. The most common projected transitions in sagebrush habitat classification were declines from Core Sagebrush Area to Growth Opportunity Area and from Growth Opportunity Area to Other Rangeland Area. Responses varied considerably across projections from different global climate models, highlighting the importance of climate uncertainty. However, our projections tended to be robust in areas that currently have the highest sagebrush ecological integrity. Our results provide a long-term perspective on the vulnerability of sagebrush ecosystems to climate change and may inform geographic prioritization of conservation and restoration investments. These results suggest that ongoing threats, such as the continued invasion by annual grasses and increased wildfire frequency, are likely to be amplified by climate change, and imply that the current imbalance between capacity for conservation to address threats to sagebrush will grow as the climate warms.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2021

Biotic and abiotic treatments as a bet-hedging approach to restoring plant communities and soil functions

Two related concepts in restoration ecology include the relative interchangeability of biotic and abiotic restoration treatments for initiating recovery and bet hedging using multiple restoration approaches to increase the likelihood of favorable restoration outcomes. We used these concepts as a framework to implement a factorial experiment including biotic (outplanting greenhouse-grown individuals of three perennial species) and abiotic treatments (constructing microtopography or vertical mulch consisting of upright, dead plant material). These treatments were designed to stimulate native plant recruitment and reverse soil degradation at four disturbed sites in the Sonoran Desert, U.S.A. The first growing season after the restoration treatments was the driest of the last 47 years, and 100% of outplants died. While the biotic treatment failed, the vertical mulch abiotic treatment increased native shrub seedling cover at the driest site and reversed soil loss across sites by increasing soil accumulation by 6× to 2 cm/year. Results revealed that (1) inexpensive, minimal-input abiotic treatments outperformed resource-intensive biotic treatments; (2) the restoration effort withstood the total failure of a major component (outplanting) to nevertheless achieve key restoration benefits within 2–3 growing seasons; and (3) incorporating multiple treatment types served as a bet-hedging approach to buffer against treatment failures. Integrating minimal-input abiotic treatments in restoration warrants consideration given their low cost and bet-hedging potential.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2022

Modeling functional flows in California rivers

Environmental flows are critical to the recovery and conservation of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. However, estimating desired ranges of environmental flows across large, diverse landscapes is challenging. To advance protections of environmental flows for streams in California, USA, we developed a statewide modeling approach focused on functional components of the natural flow regime. Functional flow components in California streams—fall pulse flows, wet season peak flows and base flows, the spring flow recession, and dry season baseflows—support essential physical and ecological processes in riverine ecosystems. These functional flow components can be represented by functional flow metrics (FFMs) and quantified by their magnitude, timing, frequency, duration, and rate-of-change from daily streamflow records. After quantifying FFMs at reference-quality streamflow gages in California, we used machine-learning methods to estimate their natural range of values for all stream reaches in the state based on physical watershed characteristics and climatic factors. We found that the models performed well in predicting FFMs in streams across a diversity of landscape and climate contexts, according to several model performance criteria. Using the predicted FFM values, we established initial estimates of ecological flows that are expected to support critical functions and are broadly protective of ecosystem health. Modeling functional flows statewide offers a pathway for increasing the pace and scale of environmental flow protections in California and beyond.

California↗
USGS2019

Designing flows to enhance ecosystem functioning in heavily altered rivers

More than a century of dam construction and water development in the western United States has led to extensive ecological alteration of rivers. Growing interest in improving river function is compelling practitioners to consider ecological restoration when managing dams and water extraction. We developed an Ecological Response Model (ERM) for the Cache la Poudre River, northern Colorado, USA, to illuminate effects of current and possible future water management and climate change. We used empirical data and modeled interactions among multiple ecosystem components to capture system-wide insights not possible with the unintegrated models commonly used in environmental assessments. The ERM results showed additional flow regime modification would further alter the structure and function of Poudre River aquatic and riparian ecosystems due to multiple and interacting stressors. Model predictions illustrated that specific peak flow magnitudes in spring and early summer are critical for substrate mobilization, dynamic channel morphology, and overbank flows, with strong subsequent effects on instream and riparian biota that varied seasonally and spatially, allowing exploration of nuanced management scenarios. Instream biological indicators benefitted from higher and more stable base flows and high peak flows, but stable base flows with low peak flows were only half as effective to increase indicators. Improving base flows while reducing peak flows, as currently proposed for the Cache la Poudre River, would further reduce ecosystem function. Modeling showed that even presently depleted annual flow volumes can achieve substantially different ecological outcomes in designed flow scenarios, while still supporting social demands. Model predictions demonstrated that implementing designed flows in a natural pattern, with attention to base and peak flows, may be needed to preserve or improve ecosystem function of the Poudre River. Improved regulatory policies would include preservation of ecosystem-level, flow-related processes and adaptive management when water development projects are considered.

Colorado↗
USGS2018

The distribution and role of functional abundance in cross‐scale resilience

The cross‐scale resilience model suggests that system‐level ecological resilience emerges from the distribution of species’ functions within and across the spatial and temporal scales of a system. It has provided a quantitative method for calculating the resilience of a given system and so has been a valuable contribution to a largely qualitative field. As it is currently laid out, the model accounts for the spatial and temporal scales at which environmental resources and species are present and the functional roles species play but does not inform us about how much resource is present or how much function is provided. In short, it does not account for abundance in the distribution of species and their functional roles within and across the scales of a system. We detail the ways in which we would expect species’ abundance to be relevant to the cross‐scale resilience model based on the extensive abundance literature in ecology. We also put forward a series of testable hypotheses that would improve our ability to anticipate and quantify how resilience is generated, and how ecosystems will (or will not) buffer recent rapid global changes. This stream of research may provide an improved foundation for the quantitative evaluation of ecological resilience.

Ecology↗
USGS2017

Simulation of rapid ecological change in Lake Ontario

Lower trophic level processes are integral to proper functioning of large aquatic ecosystems and have been disturbed in Lake Ontario by various stressors including exotic species. The invasion of benthic habitats by dreissenid mussels has led to systemic changes and native faunal declines. Size-dependent physiological rates, spatial differences and connectivity, competition, and differential population dynamics among invertebrate groups contributed to the change and system complexity. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based mechanistic model of the benthic ecosystem in Lake Ontario, with coupling to the pelagic system, to examine ecosystem dynamics and effects of dreissenid mussel invasion and native fauna losses. Benthic organisms were represented by functional groups; filter-feeders (i.e., dreissenid mussels), surface deposit-feeders (e.g., native amphipod Diporeia spp.), and deposit-feeders (e.g., oligochaetes and other burrowers). The model was stable, represented ecological structure and function effectively, and reproduced observed effects of the mussel invasion. Two hypotheses for causes of Diporeia loss, competition or disease-like mortality, were tested. Simple competition for food did not explain observed declines in native surface deposit-feeders during the filter-feeder invasion. However, the elevated mortality scenario supports a disease-like cause for loss of the native amphipod, with population changes in various lake areas and altered benthic biomass transfers. Stabilization of mussel populations and possible recovery of the native, surface-deposit feeding amphipod were predicted. Although further research is required on forcing functions, model parameters, and natural conditions, the model provides a valuable tool to help managers understand the benthic system and plan for response to future disruptions.

Lake Ontario↗