Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Forest Ecosystems”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources
USGS2002

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2021

Modeling watershed carbon dynamics as affected by land cover change and soil erosion

Process-based ecosystem carbon cycle models typically incorporate vegetation growth, vegetation mortality, and soil respiration as well as the biotic and environmental drivers that influence these variables. However, few spatially explicit process models can efficiently incorporate the influence of land cover change and carbon lateral movement at regional scales or high spatial resolution. This study uses the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to demonstrate the development of a fast ecosystem model that not only considers the basic carbon cycle but also incorporates the impact of land cover change, soil erosion, and soil deposition. As input to the LUCAS modeling framework, we used the integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) to simulate a non-spatial reference carbon cycling scenario without considering land cover change for the Nisqually River watershed in the northwestern United States. We then used the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) remotely sensed 30-m sequential land cover data to generate annual land change history for the Nisqually River area from 1985 to 2017 and used the Unit Stream Powered Erosion and Deposition model (USPED) to estimate annual soil carbon lateral movement. Finally, we combined the annual carbon outputs from IBIS, the land change history from LCMAP, and the soil erosion and deposition from USPED within the LUCAS simulation framework. Results showed that from 1985 to 2017, along with the dynamic land cover changes, total ecosystem biomass carbon increased from 11.4 to 18.6 TgC, mainly due to forest growth. Total ecosystem soil carbon declined from 31.7 to 29.7 TgC, but the overall loss in soil carbon was not uniform across land cover types. Forestland (forest sector) and grassland lost carbon, while wetland, developed land and agricultural land gained carbon. Forest, grassland, and developed land lost 0.0553 TgC during the study period (1.73 Gg of C per year; 1 Gg = 0.001 Tg) from erosion, while wetland gained 0.0071 TgC (0.22 Gg C per year) from deposition. Agricultural land was neutral in terms of soil erosion.

Washington↗
USGS2011

Characterizing fragmentation of the collective forests in southern China from multitemporal Landsat imagery: A case study from Kecheng district of Zhejiang province

Tropical and subtropical forests provide important ecosystem goods and services including carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. These forests are facing increasing socioeconomic pressures and are rapidly being degraded and fragmented. This analysis focuses on the rate of change and patterns of fragmentation in a collective forest area in Zhejiang province, China, during the time period 1988–2005. The research consisted of two parts. The first was the development of general land cover maps and the identification of land cover changes by interpreting Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) time series imagery. The second part involved the computation and analysis of forest fragmentation metrics. For this portion of the study, fragmentation statistics were analyzed, and images were developed to depict forest fragmentation patterns and trends. Results revealed that there was a net loss of 7.8% in forest coverage, dropping from 66.8% in 1988 to 59.0% in 2005, primarily caused by agricultural expansion and poor forest management practices. An acceleration of forest fragmentation was also witnessed during the time intervals, which was evidenced by a decreasing trend in interior forest (57.2% in 1988, 55.0% in 1996 and 54.8% in 2005 respectively) coupled with the scales of the selected geospatial metrics. Continued forest loss and fragmentation are closely correlated with the existing political, educational, institutional and economic processes of contemporary China. To unlock the developmental potentials of the collective forests and to effectively mitigate the rate of forest loss and fragmentation, reforms of forest tenure and ecological immigration practices are recognized as a prospective alternative. The produced fragmentation maps further illustrates the importance of assessing landscape change history, especially the spatiotemporal patterns of forest fragments, when developing landscape level plans for biodiversity conservation, land use management and ecologically sustainable forestry.

Applied Geography↗
USGS2016

Efficacy of landscape scale woodland and savanna restoration at multiple spatial and temporal scales

The loss of historic ecosystem conditions has led forest managers to implement woodland and savanna ecosystem restoration on a landscape scale (≥10,000 ha) in the Ozark Plateau of Arkansas. Managers are attempting to restore and conserve these ecosystems through the reintroduction of disturbance, mainly short-rotation early-growing-season prescribed fire. Short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire in the Ozarks typically occurs immediately before bud-break, through bud-break, and before leaf-out, and fire events occur on a three-to five-year interval. We examined short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire as a restoration tool on vegetation characteristics. We collected vegetation measurements at 70 locations annually from 2011 to 2012 in and around the White Rock Ecosystem Restoration Area (WRERA), Ozark-St. Francis National Forest, Arkansas, and used generalized linear models to investigate the impact and efficacy of prescribed fire on vegetation structure. We found the number of large shrubs (>5 cm base diameter) decreased and small shrubs (<5 cm ground diameter) increased with prescribed fire severity. We found that horizontal understory cover from ground level to 1 m in height increased with time-since-prescribed-fire and woody ground cover decreased with the number of prescribed fire treatments. Using LANDFIRE datasets at the landscape scale, we found that since the initiation of a short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire management regime, forest canopy cover has not reverted to levels characteristic of woodlands and savannas or reached restoration objectives over large areas. Without greater reductions in forest canopy cover and increases in forest-canopy cover heterogeneity, advanced regeneration will be limited in success, and woodland and savanna conditions will not return soon or to the extent desired.

Arkansas↗
USGS2026

Climate change vulnerability assessment for guiding ecosystem restoration in fire-prone landscapes of the western U.S.

Climate-driven alterations to fire regimes challenges forest management and restoration in the western United States, where increased wildfire severity threatens ecosystem integrity and resilience. In this study, we demonstrate the application of the FireCLIME (Fire-Climate-Landscape Interactions in Montane Ecosystems) Vulnerability Assessment (VA) as a decision-support tool for evaluating management actions, including restoration strategies, under climate uncertainty. Through collaborative workshops with USDA Forest Service managers, we assessed three project areas in two national forests: Lincoln National Forest (LNF, New Mexico) and Bighorn National Forest (BNF, Wyoming). These two locations represent distinct climate zones, forest ecosystems, and fire regimes. We examined how changing climate and fire regimes affect ecosystem vulnerability with the FireCLIME VA, which integrates exposure to climate and fire regime changes, ecosystem response factors, and adaptive capacity via management intervention to compare vulnerability outcomes relative to desired future conditions (DFC). Results revealed that forests that departed more from historical conditions (LNF) exhibited greater vulnerability. Soil burn severity and associated erosion emerged as common vulnerability drivers across all sites. For both forests, treatments were able to reduce departure from DFC. Treatment effectiveness varied by ecosystem type; some interventions demonstrated broad capacity to lower vulnerability and achieve DFC for a wide range of components, while others had more targeted effects for specific components. This assessment framework reveals substantial synergy between climate adaptation planning and restoration ecology principles, suggesting that vulnerability assessments can effectively guide restoration planning under climate uncertainty by balancing risk reduction with ecosystem resilience enhancement.

New Mexico, Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Can nitrogen fertilization aid restoration of mature tree productivity in degraded dryland riverine ecosystems?

Restoration of riparian forest productivity lost as a consequence of flow regulation is a common management goal in dryland riverine ecosystems. In the northern hemisphere, dryland river floodplain trees often include one or another species of Populus, which are fast-growing, nutrient-demanding trees. Because the trees are phreatophytic in drylands, and have water needs met in whole or in part by a shallow water table, their productivity may be limited by nitrogen (N) availability, which commonly limits primary productivity in mesic environments. We added 20 g N m −2 in a 2-m radius around the base of mature Populus fremontii along each of a regulated and free-flowing river in semiarid northwest Colorado, USA (total n = 42) in order to test whether growth is constrained by low soil N. Twelve years after fertilization, we collected increment cores from these and matched unfertilized trees and compared radial growth ratios (growth in the 3-year post-fertilization period/growth in the 3-year pre-fertilization period) in paired t tests. We expected a higher mean ratio in the fertilized trees. No effect from fertilization was detected, nor was a trend evident on either river. An alternative test using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) produced a similar result. Our results underscore the need for additional assessment of which and to what extent factors other than water control dryland riverine productivity. Positive confirmation of adequate soil nutrients at these and other dryland riparian sites would bolster the argument that flow management is necessary and sufficient to maximize productivity and enhance resilience in affected desert riverine forests.

Colorado↗
USGS2003

A Framework for Long-term Ecological Monitoring in Olympic National Park: Prototype for the Coniferous Forest Biome

This report is the result of a five-year collaboration between scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Olympic Field Station, and the natural resources staff of Olympic National Park to develop a comprehensive strategy for monitoring natural resources of Olympic National Park. Olympic National Park is the National Park Serviceʼs prototype monitoring park, representing parks in the coniferous forest biome. Under the umbrella of the National Park Serviceʼs prototype parks program, U.S. Geological Survey and Olympic National Park staffs are obligated to: develop strategies and designs for monitoring the long-term health and integrity of national park ecosystems with a significant coniferous forest component. design exportable monitoring protocols that can be used by other parks within the coniferous forest biome (i.e., parks having similar environments), and create a demonstration area and ʻcenter of excellenceʼ for assisting other parks in developing ecological monitoring programs. Olympic National Park is part of the North Coast and Cascades Network, a network of seven Pacific Northwestern park units created recently by the National Park Serviceʼs Inventory and Monitoring Program to extend the monitoring of ʻvital signsʼ of park health to all National Park Service units. It is our intent and hope that the monitoring strategies and conceptual models described here will meet the overall purpose of the prototype parks monitoring program in proving useful not only to Olympic National Park, but also to parks within the North Coast and Cascades Network and elsewhere. Part I contains the conceptual design and sampling framework for the prototype long-term monitoring program in Olympic National Park. In this section, we explore key elements of monitoring design that help to ensure the spatial, ecological, and temporal integration of monitoring program elements and discuss approaches used to design an ecosystem-based monitoring program. Basic monitoring components include ecosystem drivers, (e.g., climate, atmospheric inputs, human pressures), indicators of ecosystem integrity (e.g., biogeochemical indicators), known threats (e.g., impacts of introduced mountain goats), and focal or ʻkeyʼ species (e.g., rare or listed species, Roosevelt elk). Monitoring system drivers and key indicators of ecosystem integrity provide the long-term baseline needed to judge what constitutes ʻunnaturalʼ variation in park resources and provide the earliest possible warning of unacceptable change. Monitoring effects of known threats and the status of focal species will provide information useful to park managers for dealing with current park issues. In Part I we describe the process of identifying potential indicators of ecological condition and present conceptual models of park ecosystems. In addition we report results from several workshops held in conjunction with Olympic National Park aimed at identifying potential indicators of change in the parkʼs ecosystem. First, we describe the responses of Olympic National Park staff to the generic question, “What is the most important resource to monitor in Olympic National Park and why?” followed by the responses from resource and land managers from areas adjoining the park. We also catalogue the responses of various expert groups that we asked to help identify the most appropriate system drivers and indicators of change in the Olympic National Park ecosystems. Results of the workshops provided the justification for selecting basic indicators of ecosystem integrity, effects of current threats to park resources, and focal resources of parks to detect both the currently evident and unforeseeable changes in park resources. We conclude Part I by exploring several generic statistical issues relevant to monitoring natural resources in Olympic National Park. Specifically we discuss trade-offs associated with sampling extensively versus sampling intensively in smaller geographic regions and describe a conceptual framework to guide development of a generic sampling frame for monitoring. We recommend partitioning Olympic National Park into three zones of decreasing accessibility to maximize monitoring efficiency. We present examples of how the generic sampling frame could be used to help ensure spatial integration of individual monitoring projects. Part II of the report is a record of the potential monitoring questions and indicators identified to date in our workshops. The presentation is organized according to the major system drivers, components, and processes identified in the intermediate-level working model of the Olympic National Park ecosystem. For each component of the park system, we develop the need and justification for monitoring, articulate park management issues, and describe key resources and ecosystem functions. We also present a pictorial conceptual model of each ecological subsystem, identify monitoring questions, and list potential indicators for each monitoring question. We conclude each section by identifying linkages of indicators to other ecological subsystems in our general ecosystem model, spatial and temporal contexts for monitoring (where and how often to monitor), and research and development needs. Part II represents the most current detailed listing of potential indicators—the material for subsequent discussions of monitoring priorities and selection of indicators for protocol development. Collectively, the sections of this report contain a comprehensive list of the important monitoring questions and potential indicators as well as recommendations for designing an integrated monitoring program. In Part I, Chapter 6 we provide recommendations on how to proceed with the important next steps in the design process: establishing priorities among the many possible monitoring questions and indicators, and beginning to research and design effective long-term monitoring protocols.

Information and Technology Report↗
USGS2009

Land crabs as key drivers in tropical coastal forest recruitment

Plant populations are regulated by a diverse assortment of abiotic and biotic factors that influence seed dispersal and viability, and seedling establishment and growth at the microsite. Rarely does one animal guild exert as significant an influence on different plant assemblages as land crabs. We review three tropical coastal ecosystems-mangroves, island maritime forests, and mainland coastal terrestrial forests-where land crabs directly influence forest composition by limiting tree establishment and recruitment. Land crabs differentially prey on seeds, propagules and seedlings along nutrient, chemical and physical environmental gradients. In all of these ecosystems, but especially mangroves, abiotic gradients are well studied, strong and influence plant species distributions. However, we suggest that crab predation has primacy over many of these environmental factors by acting as the first limiting factor of tropical tree recruitment to drive the potential structural and compositional organisation of coastal forests. We show that the influence of crabs varies relative to tidal gradient, shoreline distance, canopy position, time, season, tree species and fruiting periodicity. Crabs also facilitate forest growth and development through such activities as excavation of burrows, creation of soil mounds, aeration of soils, removal of leaf litter into burrows and creation of carbon-rich soil microhabitats. For all three systems, land crabs influence the distribution, density and size-class structure of tree populations. Indeed, crabs are among the major drivers of tree recruitment in tropical coastal forest ecosystems, and their conservation should be included in management plans of these forests. ?? 2009 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Biological Reviews↗
USGS2021

Fish response to successive clearcuts in a second-growth forest from the central Coast range of Oregon

Research dating back to the 1950 s has documented negative effects from harvesting of primeval forests on stream ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest. By the early 1990 s, state and federal forest practice rules governing timber harvest were modified throughout North America to better protect aquatic habitats and biotic resources, principally salmonids. These rules inspired a generation of studies using a before-after-control-impact (BACI) design to document the capacity of contemporary timber harvest rules to protect salmonids in headwater streams of second-growth forests. One important unanswered question concerns the potential effects of successive clearcuts in second growth forests. Consequently, we used a paired watershed approach to evaluate the effects of two successive clearcut harvests in the Alsea Watershed, site of the seminal Alsea Watershed Study that was conducted from 1958 to 1973, on relative biomass, movement, survival, and distribution of coastal cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii ) and three physical habitat characteristics (pool area and depth, and water temperature). Although the total clearcut harvest encompassed 87% of the treatment catchment in six years, no negative effects of logging were detected for either age-1 + coastal cutthroat trout or habitat variables. Comparisons between the harvested and reference catchments suggested the survival of coastal cutthroat trout (>94 mm fork length) and total catchment relative biomass of age-1+ (i.e., > 80 mm) exhibited similar patterns, increasing from the pre-logging period (2006–2009) through the Phase I post-logging period (2009–2014), and decreasing to levels observed in the pre-logging period during the Phase II post-logging period (2014–2017). Additionally, there was no evidence for differences in movement of coastal cutthroat trout related to the harvesting treatment. In terms of habitat variables, there was a relative increase in annual total pool area in the harvested catchment during the Phase II post-logging period, but there was no evidence the 7-day moving mean maximum stream temperature changed after the Phase I and Phase II harvests. Moreover, stream water temperatures never exceeded the criterion designed to protect core coldwater habitat for salmonids (16 °C). As such, it is unlikely that cutthroat trout experienced thermal stress following either harvest. More generally, results from this and other recent studies suggest that forest practice rules developed in conjunction with current best management practices for logging in headwater catchments have substantially improved outcomes for stream biota relative to unregulated forest harvest, at least for short periods of time after logging (i.e., ≤ 8 years).

Oregon↗
USGS2017

Loss of ecosystem services due to chronic pollution of forests and surface waters in the Adirondack region (USA)

Sustaining recent progress in mitigating acid pollution could require lower emissions caps that will give rise to real or perceived tradeoffs between healthy ecosystems and inexpensive energy. Because most impacts of acid rain affect ecosystem functions that are poorly understood by policy-makers and the public, an ecosystem services (ES) framework can help to measure how pollution affects human well-being. Focused on the Adirondack region (USA), a global ‘hot-spot’ of acid pollution, we measured how the chronic acidification of the region's forests, lakes, and streams has affected the potential economic and cultural benefits they provide to society. We estimated that acid-impaired hardwood forests provide roughly half of the potential benefits of forests on moderate to well-buffered soils – an estimated loss of ∼ $10,000 ha −1 in net present value of wood products, maple syrup, carbon sequestration, and visual quality. Acidic deposition has had only nominal impact – relative to the effects of surficial geology and till depth – on the capacity of Adirondack lakes and streams to provide water suitable for drinking. However, as pH declines in lakes, the estimated value of recreational fishing decreases significantly due to loss of desirable fish such as trout. Hatchery stocking programs have partially offset the pollution-mediated losses of fishery value, most effectively in the pH range 4.8–5.5, but are costly and limited in scope. Although any estimates of the monetary ‘damages’ of acid rain have significant uncertainties, our findings highlight some of the more tangible economic and cultural benefits of pollution mitigation efforts, which continue to face litigation and political opposition.

New York↗
USGS2024

Simulating past and future fire impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems

Worldwide, large wildfires are becoming increasingly common, leading to economic damages and threatening ecosystems and human health. Under future climate change, more frequent fire disturbance may push ecosystems into non-forested alternative stable states. Fire-prone ecosystems such as those in the Mediterranean Basin are expected to be particularly vulnerable, but the position of tipping points is unclear. We compare long-term palaeoecological data from Sardinia with output from a process-based dynamic vegetation model to investigate the mechanisms controlling the complex interactions between fire, climate, and vegetation in the past and the future. Our results show that past vegetation changes from Erica -shrublands to mixed evergreen-broadleaved Quercus ilex -dominated forests were driven by a climate-induced fire regime shift. By simulating vegetation dynamics under varying fire regimes, we could reproduce Holocene vegetation trajectories and mechanistically identify tipping points. Without an immediate reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, we simulate future expansion of fire-prone Mediterranean maquis and increasing fire occurrence. Similarly, high anthropogenic ignition frequencies and plantations of non-native, highly flammable trees could induce a shift to fire-adapted Erica shrublands. However, our simulations indicate that if global warming can be kept below 2°C, Quercus ilex forests will be able to persist and effectively reduce fire occurrences and impacts, making them a valuable restoration target in Mediterranean ecosystems. Synthesis . By combining long-term records of ecosystem change with a dynamic vegetation model, we show that past climate-driven fire regime shifts were the main driver of vegetation change, creating alternative stable states that persisted over centuries. Projected future climate change exceeding Holocene variability leads to pronounced vegetation changes and increased fire risks in our simulations, requiring new fire management strategies to maintain current ecosystem services.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2024

Life on land needs fresh water (SDG 15)

Terrestrial ecosystems, such as forests, and the inland waters within them, such as bogs, floodplains, lakes, rivers, springs, and wetlands, are foundational for life on earth. They provide critical ecosystem services such as carbon storage and sequestration, clean water, primary production, pollination, soil fertility, and erosion control. The human footprint on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems continues to expand, imposing pressures from deforestation, invasive species, climate change, overexploitation of species, and land conversion for agricultural production. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15 (Life on Land) aims to address these changes by promoting the protection, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems globally. Freshwater ecosystem services and freshwater biological diversity are inherently part of, and critical to, achieving SDG 15; yet they remain absent from the goal and largely hidden within the targets and indicators. Here, we aim to highlight the role and importance of freshwater ecosystems in achieving SDG 15. We identify the six major themes of SDG 15 in which freshwater ecosystems have a preeminent role: (1) increasing protected areas, (2) sustainably managing forests, (3) reducing land degradation, (4) protecting threatened and trafficked species, (5) reducing invasive species, and (6) mobilizing resources. For each theme, we detail (a) freshwater connections to the topic, (b) key opportunities in addressing freshwater components, and (c) a relevant case study highlighting cobenefits for terrestrial ecosystems from actions targeting freshwater ecosystems. We conclude with opportunities for integrative terrestrial–aquatic monitoring, management, and policy actions. Ultimately, achieving the targets of SDG 15 requires recognition of terrestrial–aquatic interdependencies and prioritization of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity.

Book chapter↗
USGS2009

Patterns of forest succession and impacts of flood in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain ecosystem

The widespread loss of oak-hickory forests and the impacts of flood have been major issues of ecological interest concerning forest succession in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. The data analysis from two comprehensive field surveys indicated that Quercus was one of the dominant genera in the UMR floodplain ecosystem prior to the 1993 flood and constituted 14% of the total number of trees and 28% of the total basal area. During the post-flood recovery period through 2006, Quercus demonstrated slower recovery rates in both the number of trees (4%) and basal area (17%). In the same period, Carya recovered greatly from the 1993 flood in terms of the number of trees (11%) and basal area (2%), compared to its minor status before the flood. Further analyses suggested that different species responded to the 1993 flood with varying tolerance and different succession strategies. In this study, the relation of flood-caused mortality rates and DBH, f m (d), can be expressed in negative exponential functions for each species. The results of this research also indicate that the growth functions are different for each species and might also be different between pre- and post-flood time periods. These functions indicate different survival strategies and emergent properties in responding to flood impacts. This research enhances our understanding of forest succession patterns in space and time in the UPR floodplain. And such understanding might be used to predict long-term impacts of floods on UMR floodplain forest dynamics in support of management and restoration. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Ecological Complexity↗
USGS2010

A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires. The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be solicited to construct these scenarios. The methods for mapping the current LULC and ecosystem disturbances will require the extensive use of both remote-sensing data and field-survey data (for example, forest inventories) to capture and characterize landscape-changing events. For potential LULC changes and ecosystem disturbances, key drivers such as socioeconomic and climate changes will be used in addition to the biophysical data. The result of these analyses will be a series of maps for each future year for each scenario. These annual maps will form the basis for estimating carbon storage and GHG emissions. For terrestrial ecosystems, carbon storage, carbon-sequestration capacities, and GHG emissions under the present conditions and future scenarios will be assessed using the LULC-change and ecosystem-disturbance estimates in map format with a spatially explicit biogeochemical ensemble modeling system that incorporates properties of management activities (such as tillage or harvesting) and properties of individual ecosystems (such as energy exchange, vegetation characteristics, hydrological cycling, and soil attributes). For aquatic ecosystems, carbon burial in sediments and fluxes of GHG are functions of the present and future potential stream flow and sediment transport and will be assessed using empirical hydrological modeling methods. Validation and uncertainty analysis methods described in the methodology will follow established guidelines to assess the quality of the assessment results. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Level II ecoregions map will be the practical instrument for developing and delivering assessment results. Consequently, the ecoregion (there are 22 modified ecoregions) will be the reporting unit of the assessment because the scenarios, assessment results, validation, and uncertainty analysis will be produced at that scale. The implementation of these methods will require collaborations among various Federal agencies, State agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and the science community. Using the method described in this document, the assessment can be completed in approximately 3 to 4 years. The primary deliverables will be assessment reports containing tables, charts, and maps that will present the estimated GHG parameters annually for 2001 through 2050 by ecosystem, pool, and scenario. The results will permit the evaluation of a range of policies, mitigation options, and research topics, such as the demographic, LULC-change, or climate-change effects on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and GHG fluxes in ecosystems.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2015

Differences in ecosystem carbon distribution and nutrient cycling linked to forest tree species composition in a mid-successional boreal forest

In the boreal forest of Alaska, increased fire severity associated with climate change is expanding deciduous forest cover in areas previously dominated by black spruce ( Picea mariana ). Needle-leaf conifer and broad-leaf deciduous species are commonly associated with differences in tree growth, carbon (C) and nutrient cycling, and C accumulation in soils. Although this suggests that changes in tree species composition in Alaska could impact C and nutrient pools and fluxes, few studies have measured these linkages. We quantified C, nitrogen, phosphorus, and base cation pools and fluxes in three stands of black spruce and Alaska paper birch ( Betula neoalaskana ) that established following a single fire event in 1958. Paper birch consistently displayed characteristics of more rapid C and nutrient cycling, including greater aboveground net primary productivity, higher live foliage and litter nutrient concentrations, and larger ammonium and nitrate pools in the soil organic layer (SOL). Ecosystem C stocks (aboveground + SOL + 0–10 cm mineral soil) were similar for the two species; however, in black spruce, 78% of measured C was found in soil pools, primarily in the SOL, whereas aboveground biomass dominated ecosystem C pools in birch forest. Radiocarbon analysis indicated that approximately one-quarter of the black spruce SOL C accumulated prior to the 1958 fire, whereas no pre-fire C was observed in birch soils. Our findings suggest that tree species exert a strong influence over C and nutrient cycling in boreal forest and forest compositional shifts may have long-term implications for ecosystem C and nutrient dynamics.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2019

Long-term nitrogen addition shifts the soil nematode community to bacterivore-dominated and reduces its ecological maturity in a subalpine forest

Nitrogen deposition from anthropogenic sources is a global problem that reaches even the most remote ecosystems. Responses belowground vary by ecosystem, and have feedbacks to geochemical processes, including carbon storage. A long-term nitrogen addition study in a subalpine forest has shown carbon loss over time, atypical for a forest ecosystem. Loss of microbial biomass is likely linked to lower soil carbon, but the mechanism behind this is still unknown. One possible explanation is through increased turnover due to grazing by soil fauna. Because nematodes occupy many trophic levels and are sensitive to trophic and environmental changes, assessing their communities helps reveal belowground responses. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that long-term nitrogen fertilization affects nematode community structure and maturity beneath coniferous forests in the Rocky Mountains, indicating a faster cycling, bacterial-driven system. We identified and enumerated nematodes by trophic group and family from experimental plots. Total nematode abundance was 40–96% greater in fertilized plots compared to the control, but richness, diversity, and ecological maturity were lower. The differences in abundance were driven by opportunistic bacterivores (e.g., Rhabditidae) and plant parasites (e.g., Tylenchidae), which made up 23 and 13% of the community in fertilized compared to 7 and 5% in control plots, respectively. Nematode maturity indices showed that the nematode food webwas enriched (indicating high nutrient/resource status) and structured (all trophic levels present, including long-lived predators) in both treatments, but significantly more enriched in the fertilized treatment. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling of the relative abundance of nematode families demonstrated that nematode community composition differed between treatments, driven largely by opportunistic bacterivores (e.g., Rhabditidae) in the fertilized plots. The mechanism of the aboveground–belowground link between nitrogen deposition and nematode community composition is likely through increased microbial turnover, and sustained high-quality food for microbial grazing nematodes.

Soil Biology and Biochemistry↗
USGS2018

Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long time horizons. In this study we use a variety of synoptic-scale remote sensing data to estimate the effect of LULC changes associated with urbanization, agricultural expansion and contraction, forest harvest, and wildfire on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems (forest, grasslands, shrublands, and agriculture) in the conterminous United States (i.e. excluding Alaska and Hawaii) between 1973 and 2010. We estimate large net declines in the area of agriculture and forest, along with relatively small increases in grasslands and shrublands. The largest net change in any class was an estimated gain of 114 865 km 2 of developed lands, an average rate of 3282 km 2 yr −1 . On average, US ecosystems sequestered carbon at an annual rate of 254 Tg C yr −1 . In forest lands, the net sink declined by 35% over the study period, largely a result of land-use legacy, increasing disturbances, and reductions in forest area due to land use conversion. Uncertainty in LULC change data contributed to a ~16% margin of error in the annual carbon sink estimate prior to 1985 (approximately ±40 Tg C yr −1 ). Improvements in LULC and disturbance mapping starting in the mid-1980s reduced this uncertainty by ~50% after 1985. We conclude that changes in LULC are a critical component to understanding ecosystem carbon dynamics, and continued improvements in detection, quantification, and attribution of change have the potential to significantly reduce current uncertainties.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2017

Influence of repeated prescribed fire on tree growth and mortality in Pinus resinosa forests, northern Minnesota

Prescribed fire is widely used for ecological restoration and fuel reduction in fire-dependent ecosystems, most of which are also prone to drought. Despite the importance of drought in fire-adapted forests, little is known about cumulative effects of repeated prescribed burning on tree growth and related response to drought. Using dendrochronological data in red pine ( Pinus resinosa Ait.)-dominated forests in northern Minnesota, USA, we examined growth responses before and after understory prescribed fires between 1960 and 1970, to assess whether repeated burning influences growth responses of overstory trees and vulnerability of overstory tree growth to drought. We found no difference in tree-level growth vulnerability to drought, expressed as growth resistance, resilience, and recovery, between areas receiving prescribed fire treatments and untreated forests. Annual mortality rates during the period of active burning were also low (less than 2%) in all treatments. These findings indicate that prescribed fire can be effectively integrated into management plans and climate change adaptation strategies for red pine forest ecosystems without significant short- or long-term negative consequences for growth or mortality rates of overstory trees.

Minnesota↗