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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources
USGS2017

The role of paleoecology in restoration and resource management—The past as a guide to future decision-making: Review and example from the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, U.S.A

Resource managers around the world are challenged to develop feasible plans for sustainable conservation and/or restoration of the lands, waters, and wildlife they administer—a challenge made greater by anticipated climate change and associated effects over the next century. Increasingly, paleoecologic and geologic archives are being used to extend the period of record of observed data and provide information on centennial to millennial scale responses to long-term drivers of ecosystem change. The development of paleoecology from an emerging field investigating past environments to a highly relevant applied science is reviewed and general examples of the application of paleoecologic research to resource management questions in diverse habitats and regions are provided. Specific examples of the application of paleoecologic research to the restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem of south Florida (U.S.A) are presented. Conducting valuable scientific research that would benefit resource management decisions, however, is not enough. Scientists and resource managers need to be engaged in collaborative discussions from the beginning of the research process to ensure that management questions are being addressed and that the science reaches the people who will benefit from the information. Paleoecology and related disciplines provide an understanding of how ecosystems and individual species function and change over time in response to both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Information on pre-anthropogenic baseline conditions is provided by paleoecologic research, but it is the detection of long-term trends and cycles that allow resource managers to set realistic goals and targets by moving away from the fixed-point baseline concept to one of dynamic landscapes that anticipates and incorporates an expectation of change into decision-making.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

Introduction: Forecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees ( Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana , respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss. Methods: We conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km 2 grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees. Results: While the environments occupied by Y. brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana were similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat for Y. jaegeriana extends throughout the range of Y. brevifolia , while potential habitat for Y. brevifolia is not well represented within the range of Y. jaegeriana . Discussion: By reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.

Frontiers Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS1995

Mapping the response of riparian vegetation to possible flow reductions in the Snake River, Idaho

This study was initiated to determine the general effects of potential flow reductions in the middle Snake River (Swan Falls Dam downstream to the Idaho-Oregon border) on its riparian vegetation. Considerable water from the river is currently used to irrigate the adjacent Snake River Plain, and increased demand for water in the future is likely. The problem was subdivided into several research components including: field investigation of the existing riparian vegetation and river environment, hydrological modeling to calculate the effects of one flow scenario on hydrological regime, and integration of vegetation and hydrological modeling results with a Geographic Information System (GIs) to map the riverbed, island, and bank conditions under the scenario flow. Field work was conducted in summer 1990. Riparian vegetation along 40 U.S. Geological Survey cross-sections was sampled at approximately 1.25 mile intervals within the 50 mile long study area. Cross-section and flow data were provided by the U.S. Geological. Survey. GIs mapping of land/water cover using ARC/INFO was based on 1987 aerial photographs. Riverbed contour maps were produced by linking cross-section data, topographic contouring software ( anudem ), and GIs. The maps were used to spatially display shallow areas in the channel likely to become vegetated under reduced flow conditions. The scenario would reduce flow by approximately 20% (160 MAF) and lower the river an average of 0.5 ft. The scenario flow could cause a drop in the elevation of the riparian zone comparable to the drop in mean river level and expansion of the lower riparian zone into shallow areas of the channel. The GIs maps showed that the shallow areas of the channel more likely to become vegetated under the scenario flow are located in wide reaches near islands. Some possible ecological consequences of the scenario flow include a greater area of riparian habitat, reduced flow velocity and sedimentation in shallow channels leading to channel deactivation, increased island visitation and nest predation by predatory mammals due to loss of a water barrier between some islands and banks, and larger populations of alien plant species in the new riparian vegetation.

Idaho, Oregon↗
USGS2016

Scaling-up camera traps: monitoring the planet's biodiversity with networks of remote sensors

Countries committed to implementing the Convention on Biological Diversity's 2011–2020 strategic plan need effective tools to monitor global trends in biodiversity. Remote cameras are a rapidly growing technology that has great potential to transform global monitoring for terrestrial biodiversity and can be an important contributor to the call for measuring Essential Biodiversity Variables. Recent advances in camera technology and methods enable researchers to estimate changes in abundance and distribution for entire communities of animals and to identify global drivers of biodiversity trends. We suggest that interconnected networks of remote cameras will soon monitor biodiversity at a global scale, help answer pressing ecological questions, and guide conservation policy. This global network will require greater collaboration among remote-camera studies and citizen scientists, including standardized metadata, shared protocols, and security measures to protect records about sensitive species. With modest investment in infrastructure, and continued innovation, synthesis, and collaboration, we envision a global network of remote cameras that not only provides real-time biodiversity data but also serves to connect people with nature.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2010

Fort Collins Science Center-Fiscal year 2009 science accomplishments

Public land and natural resource managers in the United States are confronted with increasingly complex decisions that have important ramifications for both ecological and human systems. The scientists and technical professionals at the U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center?many of whom are at the forefront of their fields?possess a unique blend of ecological, socioeconomic, and technological expertise. Because of this diverse talent, Fort Collins Science Center staff are able to apply a systems approach to investigating complicated ecological problems in a way that helps answer critical management questions. In addition, the Fort Collins Science Center has a long record of working closely with the academic community through cooperative agreements and other collaborations. The Fort Collins Science Center is deeply engaged with other U.S. Geological Survey science centers and partners throughout the Department of the Interior. As a regular practice, we incorporate the expertise of these partners in providing a full complement of ?the right people? to effectively tackle the multifaceted research problems of today's resource-management world. In Fiscal Year 2009, the Fort Collins Science Center's scientific and technical professionals continued research vital to Department of the Interior's science and management needs. Fort Collins Science Center work also supported the science needs of other Federal and State agencies as well as non-government organizations. Specifically, Fort Collins Science Center research and technical assistance focused on client and partner needs and goals in the areas of biological information management and delivery, enterprise information, fisheries and aquatic systems, invasive species, status and trends of biological resources (including human dimensions), terrestrial ecosystems, and wildlife resources. In the process, Fort Collins Science Center science addressed natural-science information needs identified in the U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy (http://www.usgs.gov/science_strategy), including understanding and predicting change in ecosystems, climate variability and change, energy development and land management, the role of the environment and wildlife in human health, freshwater ecosystems, data integration, and evolving technologies. Several science projects were expanded in Fiscal Year 2009 to meet these evolving needs.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Acute survivorship of the deep-sea coral Lophelia pertusa from the Gulf of Mexico under acidification, warming, and deoxygenation

Changing global climate due to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 are driving rapid changes in the physical and chemical environment of the oceans via warming, deoxygenation, and acidification. These changes may threaten the persistence of species and populations across a range of latitudes and depths, including species that support diverse biological communities that in turn provide ecological stability and support commercial interests. Worldwide, but particularly in the North Atlantic and deep Gulf of Mexico, Lophelia pertusa forms expansive reefs that support biological communities whose diversity rivals that of tropical coral reefs. In this study, L. pertusa colonies were collected from the Viosca Knoll region in the Gulf of Mexico (390 to 450 m depth), genotyped using microsatellite markers, and exposed to a series of treatments testing survivorship responses to acidification, warming, and deoxygenation. All coral nubbins survived the acidification scenarios tested, between pH of 7.67 and 7.90 and aragonite saturation states of 0.92 and 1.47. However, net calcification generally declined with respect to pH, though a disparate response was evident where select individuals net calcified and others exhibited net dissolution near a saturation state of 1. Warming and deoxygenation both had negative effects on survivorship, with up to 100% mortality observed at temperatures above 14°C and oxygen concentrations of approximately 1.5 ml· l−1. These results suggest that, over the short-term, climate change and OA may negatively impact L. pertusa in the Gulf of Mexico, though the potential for acclimation and the effects of genetic background should be considered in future research.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2014

Reduced population variance in strontium isotope values informs domesticated turkey use at Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, USA

Traditionally strontium isotopes (87Sr/86Sr) have been used as a sourcing tool in numerous archaeological artifact classes. The research presented here demonstrates that 87Sr/86Srbioapatite ratios also can be used at a population level to investigate the presence of domesticated animals and methods of management. The proposed methodology combines ecology, isotope geochemistry, and behavioral ecology to assess the presence and nature of turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) domestication. This case study utilizes 87Sr/86Srbioapatite ratios from teeth and bones of archaeological turkey, deer (Odocoileus sp.), lagomorph (Lepus sp. and Sylvilagus sp.), and prairie-dog (Cynomys sp.) from Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, U.S.A. (ca. A.D. 800 – 1250). Wild deer and turkey from the southwestern U.S.A. have much larger home ranges and dispersal behaviors (measured in kilometers) when compared to lagomorphs and prairie dogs (measured in meters). Hunted deer and wild turkey from archaeological contexts at Chaco Canyon are expected to have a higher variance in their 87Sr/86Srbioapatite ratios, when compared to small range taxa (lagomorphs and prairie dogs). Contrary to this expectation, 87Sr/86Srbioapatite values of turkey bones from Chacoan assemblages have a much lower variance than deer and are similar to that of smaller mammals. The sampled turkey values show variability most similar to lagomorphs and prairie dogs, suggesting the turkeys from Chaco Canyon were consuming a uniform diet and/or were constrained within a limited home range, indicating at least proto-domestication. The population approach has wide applicability for evaluating the presence and nature of domestication when combined with paleoecology and behavioral ecology in a variety of animals and environments.

New Mexico↗
USGS2012

An exploratory investigation of the landscape-lake interface: Land cover controls over consumer N and C isotopic composition in Lake Michigan rivermouths

Rivermouth ecosystems are areas where tributary waters mix with lentic near-shore waters and provide habitat for many Laurentian Great Lakes fish and wildlife species. Rivermouths are the interface between terrestrial activities that influence rivers and the ecologically important nearshore. Stable isotopes of nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) in consumers were measured from a range of rivermouths systems to address two questions: 1) What is the effect of rivermouth ecosystems and land cover on the isotopic composition of N available to rivermouth consumers? 2) Are rivermouth consumers composed of lake-like or river-like C? For question 1, data suggest that strong relationships between watershed agriculture and consumer N are weakened or eliminated at the rivermouth, in favor of stronger relationships between consumer N and depositional areas that may favor denitrification. For question 2, despite apparently large riverine inputs, consumers only occasionally appear river-like. More often consumers seem to incorporate large amounts of C from either the nearshore or primary production within the rivermouth itself. Rivermouths appear to be active C and N processing environments, thus necessitating their explicit incorporation into models estimating nearshore loading and possibly contributing to their importance to Great Lakes biota.

Lake Michigan↗
USGS2004

Where in the world are my field plots? Using GPS effectively in environmental field studies

Global positioning system (GPS) technology is rapidly replacing tape, compass, and traditional surveying instruments as the preferred tool for estimating the positions of environmental research sites. One important problem, however, is that it can be difficult to estimate the uncertainty of GPS-derived positions. Sources of error include various satellite- and site-related factors, such as forest canopy and topographic obstructions. In a case study from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, hand-held, mapping-grade GPS receivers generally estimated positions with 1–5 m precision in open, unobstructed settings, and 20–30 m precision under forest canopy. Surveying-grade receivers achieved precisions of 10 cm or less, even in challenging terrain. Users can maximize the quality of their GPS measurements by “mission planning” to take advantage of high-quality satellite conditions. Repeated measurements and simultaneous data collection at multiple points can be used to assess accuracy and precision.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2008

Biomorphodynamics: Physical-biological feedbacks that shape landscapes

Plants and animals affect morphological evolution in many environments. The term "ecogeomorphology" describes studies that address such effects. In this opinion article we use the term "biomorphodynamics" to characterize a subset of ecogeomorphologic studies: those that investigate not only the effects of organisms on physical processes and morphology but also how the biological processes depend on morphology and physical forcing. The two-way coupling precipitates feedbacks, leading to interesting modes of behavior, much like the coupling between flow/sediment transport and morphology leads to rich morphodynamic behaviors. Select examples illustrate how even the basic aspects of some systems cannot be understood without considering biomorphodynamic coupling. Prominent examples include the dynamic interactions between vegetation and flow/sediment transport that can determine river channel patterns and the multifaceted biomorphodynamic feedbacks shaping tidal marshes and channel networks. These examples suggest that the effects of morphology and physical processes on biology tend to operate over the timescale of the evolution of the morphological pattern. Thus, in field studies, which represent a snapshot in the pattern evolution, these effects are often not as obvious as the effects of biology on physical processes. However, numerical modeling indicates that the influences on biology from physical processes can play a key role in shaping landscapes and that even local and temporary vegetation disturbances can steer large-scale, long-term landscape evolution. The prevalence of biomorphodynamic research is burgeoning in recent years, driven by societal need and a confluence of complex systems-inspired modeling approaches in ecology and geomorphology. To make fundamental progress in understanding the dynamics of many landscapes, our community needs to increasingly learn to look for two-way, biomorphodynamic feedbacks and to collect new types of data to support the modeling of such emergent interactions. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS1988

The ecology of the soft-bottom benthos of San Francisco Bay: a community profile

This profile, part of a series of profiles concerning coastal habitats of the United States, is a detailed examination of the soft-bottom benthos of San Francisco Bay. A U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and California Department of Fish and Game report (1979) entitled "Protection and Restoration of San Francisco Bay Fish and Wildlife Habitat" provides clear recognition of the importance of intertidal and subtidal soft-bottom habitats and their associated organisms to the bay's birds and fishes and to the overall functioning of the estuary. The purpose of this profile is to provide a description of the structure and functioning of the benthic community in San Francisco Bay (exclusive of its tidal marshes, which are discussed by M. Josselyn [1983] in another profile). The habitats covered in this volume include all nonvegetated soft-bottom intertidal and subtidal areas of the bay between the Golden Gate and the mouths of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers to the northeast, and to the southern extremity of the bay. The profile provides a reference to the scientific information concerning the animals and plants of the bay's benthic communities, their importance to the bay ecosystem, and their value as a resource measured in human terms. Because there have been few process-oriented studies of the benthos of San Francisco Bay (e.g., field and laboratory rate-measurement experiments), the material presented herein is largely descriptive. Nonetheless, we have described the processes that interconnect the various physical, chemical, and biological components of the benthic environment, and the important couplings between this environment and the water column above, with reference to research results from other estuaries where necessary. We consider the role of the benthic community as a food source for fish, aquatic birds, and humans; as a consumer or degrader of organic materials including wastes; as a recycler of minerals and nutrients; and as an accumulator of pollutants.

California↗
USGS2015

Chilled frogs are hot: hibernation and reproduction of the Endangered mountain yellow-legged frog Rana muscosa

In the face of the sixth great extinction crisis, it is imperative to establish effective breeding protocols for amphibian conservation breeding programs. Captive efforts should not proceed by trial and error, nor should they jump prematurely to assisted reproduction techniques, which can be invasive, difficult, costly, and, at times, counterproductive. Instead, conservation practitioners should first look to nature for guidance, and replicate key conditions found in nature in the captive environment, according to the ecological and behavioral requirements of the species. We tested the effect of a natural hibernation regime on reproductive behaviors and body condition in the Endangered mountain yellow-legged frog Rana muscosa . Hibernation had a clear positive effect on reproductive behavior, manifesting in vocal advertisement signaling, female receptivity, amplexus, and oviposition. These behaviors are critical components of courtship that lead to successful reproduction. Our main finding was that captive R. muscosa require a hibernation period for successful reproduction, as only hibernated females produced eggs and only hibernated males successfully fertilized eggs. Although hibernation also resulted in a reduced body condition, the reduction appeared to be minimal with no associated mortality. The importance of hibernation for reproduction is not surprising, since it is a major component of the conditions that R. muscosa experiences in the wild. Other amphibian conservation breeding programs can also benefit from a scientific approach that tests the effect of natural ecological conditions on reproduction. This will ensure that captive colonies maximize their role in providing genetic reservoirs for assurance and reintroduction efforts.

Endangered Species Research↗
USGS2013

Spatial contexts for temporal variability in alpine vegetation under ongoing climate change

A framework to monitor mountain summit vegetation (The Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments, GLORIA) was initiated in 1997. GLORIA results should be taken within a regional context of the spatial variability of alpine tundra. Changes observed at GLORIA sites in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA are quantified within the context of the range of variability observed in alpine tundra across much of western North America. Dissimilarity is calculated and used in nonmetric multidimensional scaling for repeated measures of vascular species cover at 14 GLORIA sites with 525 nearby sites and with 436 sites in western North America. The lengths of the trajectories of the GLORIA sites in ordination space are compared to the dimensions of the space created by the larger datasets. The absolute amount of change on the GLORIA summits over 5 years is high, but the degree of change is small relative to the geographical context. The GLORIA sites are on the margin of the ordination volumes with the large datasets. The GLORIA summit vegetation appears to be specialized, arguing for the intrinsic value of early observed change in limited niche space.

Montana↗
USGS2019

One hundred pressing questions on the future of global fish migration science, conservation, and policy

Migration is a widespread but highly diverse component of many animal life histories. Fish migrate throughout the world's oceans, within lakes and rivers, and between the two realms, transporting matter, energy, and other species (e.g., microbes) across boundaries. Migration is therefore a process responsible for myriad ecosystem services. Many human populations depend on the presence of predictable migrations of fish for their subsistence and livelihoods. Although much research has focused on fish migration, many questions remain in our rapidly changing world. We assembled a diverse team of fundamental and applied scientists who study fish migrations in marine and freshwater environments to identify pressing unanswered questions. Our exercise revealed questions within themes related to understanding the migrating individual's internal state, navigational mechanisms, locomotor capabilities, external drivers of migration, the threats confronting migratory fish including climate change, and the role of migration. In addition, we identified key requirements for aquatic animal management, restoration, policy, and governance. Lessons revealed included the difficulties in generalizing among species and populations, and in understanding the levels of connectivity facilitated by migrating fishes. We conclude by identifying priority research needed for assuring a sustainable future for migratory fishes.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2001

Biology and conservation of the common murre in California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia: Vol. 1, Natural history and population trends

Over the past 30 years, the common murre ( Uria aalge californica ) has been recognized as a prominent indicator of marine conservation issues in California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, especially regarding oil pollution, certain fisheries, and human disturbance. To assist the effective management of the common murre and the marine environments in which they live, this summary of available information on the biology and regional status of the common murre has been sponsored by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Division of Migratory Bird Management). In Volume 1 (Chapter 1), the natural history of the common murre is summarized, drawing heavily on breeding studies from the South Farallon Islands, California, plus a host of detailed breeding studies from the North Atlantic Ocean. Population trends of the common murre are summarized in Volume 1 (Chapter 2), focusing on changes in whole-colony counts determined from aerial photographs between the late 1970s and 1995 in California, Oregon and Washington. Historical data and human impacts to murre colonies since the early nineteenth century are also summarized. Volume 2 will summarize population threats, conservation, and management. Information presented in Volume 1 has been obtained and recorded by a large number of researchers and natural historians over two centuries. From the 1960s to 1995, most work in California, Oregon, and Washington was sponsored by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Minerals Management Service, and California Department of Fish and Game. Important breeding biology studies were conducted at the South Farallon Islands (Farallon National Wildlife Refuge) by the Point Reyes Bird Observatory, in coordination with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge). Colony surveys in California were conducted mainly by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge), U.S. Geological Survey (Western Ecological Research Center, Dixon Field Station), Humboldt State University, and University of California (Santa Cruz). Colony surveys in Oregon and Washington were conducted mainly by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Oregon Coast National Wildlife Refuge and Washington Maritime National Wildlife Refuges). In British Columbia, most work from the 1960s to 1995 was sponsored and conducted by the Canadian Wildlife Service and Royal British Columbia Museum.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2007

Restoration of mangrove plantations and colonisation by native species in Leizhou bay, South China

To examine the natural colonisation of native mangrove species into remediated exotic mangrove stands in Leizhou Bay, South China, we compared soil physical-chemical properties, community structure and recruitments of barren mangrove areas, native mangrove species plantations, and exotic mangrove species-Sonneratia apetala Buch.Ham-between plantations and natural forest. We found that severely degraded mangrove stands could not regenerate naturally without human intervention due to severely altered local environments, whereas some native species had been recruited into the 4-10 year S. apetala plantations. In the first 10 years, the exotic species S. apetala grew better than native species such as Rhizophora stylosa Griff and Kandelia candel (Linn.) Druce. The mangrove plantation gradually affected soil physical and chemical properties during its recovery. The exotic S. apetala was more competitive than native species and its plantation was able to restore soil organic matter in about 14 years. Thus, S. apetala can be considered as a pioneer species to improve degraded habitats to facilitate recolonisation by native mangrove species. However, removal to control proliferation may be needed at late stages to facilitate growth of native species. To ensure sustainability of mangroves in South China, the existing mangrove wetlands must be managed as an ecosystem, with long-term scientific monitoring program in place. ?? 2007 The Ecological Society of Japan.

Ecological Research↗
USGS2014

Heterogeneous occupancy and density estimates of the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in waters of North America

Biodiversity losses are occurring worldwide due to a combination of stressors. For example, by one estimate, 40% of amphibian species are vulnerable to extinction, and disease is one threat to amphibian populations. The emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ), is a contributor to amphibian declines worldwide. Bd research has focused on the dynamics of the pathogen in its amphibian hosts, with little emphasis on investigating the dynamics of free-living Bd . Therefore, we investigated patterns of Bd occupancy and density in amphibian habitats using occupancy models, powerful tools for estimating site occupancy and detection probability. Occupancy models have been used to investigate diseases where the focus was on pathogen occurrence in the host. We applied occupancy models to investigate free-living Bd in North American surface waters to determine Bd seasonality, relationships between Bd site occupancy and habitat attributes, and probability of detection from water samples as a function of the number of samples, sample volume, and water quality. We also report on the temporal patterns of Bd density from a 4-year case study of a Bd -positive wetland. We provide evidence that Bd occurs in the environment year-round. Bd exhibited temporal and spatial heterogeneity in density, but did not exhibit seasonality in occupancy. Bd was detected in all months, typically at less than 100 zoospores L −1 . The highest density observed was ∼3 million zoospores L −1 . We detected Bd in 47% of sites sampled, but estimated that Bd occupied 61% of sites, highlighting the importance of accounting for imperfect detection. When Bd was present, there was a 95% chance of detecting it with four samples of 600 ml of water or five samples of 60 mL. Our findings provide important baseline information to advance the study of Bd disease ecology, and advance our understanding of amphibian exposure to free-living Bd in aquatic habitats over time.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, Nev↗
USGS2015

Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO 2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO 2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly inhospitable to pronghorn persistence. This realization informs and steers conservation and management decisions for pronghorn in North America, while exemplifying how similar research can aid ungulates inhabiting arid regions and confronting similar circumstances elsewhere.

Ecosphere↗