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USGS2012

2011 Georgiana Slough non-physical barrier performance evaluation project report

The Sacramento River and its tributaries support populations of anadromous fish species including winter-run, spring-run, fall-run, and late fall–run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ); and steelhead ( O. mykiss ). Several of these species are listed as threatened or endangered under the California Endangered Species Act (CESA), federal Endangered Species Act (ESA), or both. These species spawn and rear in Sacramento River tributaries; adults use the mainstem Sacramento River for primarily upstream migration and juveniles use it for downstream migration. Juvenile Chinook salmon and steelhead migrate through the lower river during winter and spring. During their downstream migration, juvenile salmonids encounter alternative pathways, such as Sutter and Steamboat Sloughs, the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta), Delta Cross Channel (DCC), and Georgiana Slough. Likewise, sturgeon juveniles migrate downstream in the Sacramento River basin to the Delta, utilizing the distributary channels to rear within and migrate through the system. Georgiana Slough is a natural channel that allows water and fish to move into the interior Delta. Previous studies have demonstrated that juvenile Chinook salmon experience greater mortality when migrating into Georgiana Slough than those juveniles that continue to migrate downstream in the Sacramento River (Perry 2010). Movement and/or diversion of these fish into the interior and south Delta increases the likelihood of losses through predation, entrainment into non-project Delta diversions, and mortality associated with the State Water Project (SWP) and Central Valley Project (CVP) pumping facilities in the south Delta (Perry 2010; NMFS 2009). Figure ES-1 shows the migration pathways in the lower Sacramento River and Delta for outmigrating anadromous salmonids, and the location of the DCC, and the SWP and CVP pumping facilities in the south Delta. Passage of juvenile salmonids from the Sacramento River into the interior Delta through the DCC can be reduced through seasonal closure of the radial gates (February through May); however, no similar protection is available to reduce the movement of juvenile salmonids from the Sacramento River into the interior Delta through Georgiana Slough. Flows into Georgiana Slough improve water quality and flushing in the interior Delta and free access encourages use by recreational boaters. Because of these benefits, alternatives to the installation of a physical barrier (i.e. radial gates), are being investigated. Under the ESA, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) issued the 2009 Biological and Conference Opinion for the Long‐Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project (BO) for Chinook salmon and other listed anadromous fish species (NMFS 2009). Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) Action IV.1.3 of the BO requires the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to consider engineering solutions to reduce the diversion of juvenile salmonids from the Sacramento River into the interior and south Delta. DWR implemented the 2011 Georgiana Slough NonPhysical Barrier (GSNPB) Study to test the effectiveness of using a non-physical barrier, referred to as a behavioral Bio-Acoustic Fish Fence (BAFF), that combines three stimuli to deter juvenile Chinook salmon from entering Georgiana Slough: sound, high-intensity modulated light (previously known as stroboscopic light), and a bubble curtain. This report presents the results of the experimental tests conducted in 2011.

California↗

USGS2002

Ontogenetic behavior and migration of Volga River Russian sturgeon, Acipenser gueldenstaedtii, with a note on adaptive significance of body color

We conducted laboratory experiments with Volga River Russian sturgeon, Acipenser gueldenstaedtii, to develop a conceptual model of early behavior. We daily observed fish from day-0 (embryos, first life interval after hatching) to day-29 feeding larvae for preference of bright habitat and cover, swimming distance above the bottom, up- and downstream movement, and diel activity. Hatchling embryos initiated a downstream migration, which suggests that predation risk of embryos at spawning sites is high. Migration peaked on days 0-5 and ceased on day 7 (8-day migration). Migrants preferred bright, open habitat and early migrants swam-up far above the bottom (maximum daily median, 140 cm) in a vertical swim tube. Post-migrant embryos did not prefer bright illumination but continued to prefer white substrate, increased use of cover habitat, and swam on the bottom. Larvae initiated feeding on day 10 after 170.6 cumulative temperature degree-days. Larvae did not migrate, weakly preferred bright illumination, preferred white substrate and open habitat, and swam near the bottom (daily median 5-78 cm). The lack of a strong preference by larvae for bright illumination suggests foraging relies more on olfaction than vision for locating prey. A short migration by embryos would disperse wild sturgeon from a spawning area, but larvae did not migrate, so a second later migration by juveniles disperses young sturgeon to the sea (2-step migration). Embryo and larva body color was light tan and tail color was black. The migration, behavior, and light body color of Russian sturgeon embryos was similar to species of Acipenser and Scaphirhynchus in North America and to Acipenser in Asia that migrate after hatching as embryos. The similarity in migration style and body color among species with diverse phylogenies likely reflects convergence for common adaptations across biogeographic regions. ?? 2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

USGS2016

The conservation genetics juggling act: Integrating genetics and ecology, science and policy

The field of conservation genetics, when properly implemented, is a constant juggling act integrating molecular genetics, ecology, and demography with applied aspects concerning managing declining species or implementing conservation laws and policies. This young field has grown substantially since the 1980’s following development of the polymerase chain reaction and now into the genomics era. Our lab has “grown up” with the field, having worked on these issues for over three decades. Our multi-disciplinary approach entails understanding the behavior and ecology of species as well as the underlying processes that contribute to genetic viability. Taking this holistic approach provides a comprehensive understanding of factors that influence species persistence and evolutionary potential while considering annual challenges that occur throughout their life cycle. As a federal lab, we are often addressing the needs of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in their efforts to list, de-list or recover species. Nevertheless, there remains an overall communication gap between research geneticists and biologists who are charged with implementing their results. Therefore, we outline the need for a National Center for Small Population Biology to ameliorate this problem and provide organizations charged with making status decisions firmer ground from which to make their critical decisions.

Evolutionary Applications↗

USGS2010

Surveys for presence of Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa): background information and field methods

The Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) is the most aquatic of the native frogs in the Pacific Northwest. The common name derives from the pattern of black, ragged-edged spots set against a brown or red ground color on the dorsum of adult frogs. Oregon spotted frogs are generally associated with wetland complexes that have several aquatic habitat types and sizeable coverage of emergent vegetation. Like other ranid frogs native to the Northwest, Oregon spotted frogs breed in spring, larvae transform in summer of their breeding year, and adults tend to be relatively short lived (3-5 yrs). Each life stage (egg, tadpole, juvenile and adult) has characteristics that present challenges for detection. Breeding can be explosive and completed within 1-2 weeks. Egg masses are laid in aggregations, often in a few locations in large areas of potential habitat. Egg masses can develop, hatch, and disintegrate in <2 weeks during warm weather. Tadpoles can be difficult to identify, have low survival, and spend most of their 3-4 months hidden in vegetation or flocculant substrates. Juveniles and adults are often difficult to capture and can spend summers away from breeding areas. Moreover, a substantial portion of extant populations are of limited size (<100 breeding adults), and field densities of all life stages are often low. An understanding of the biology of the species and use of multiple visits are thus important for assessing presence of Oregon spotted frogs. This report is meant to be a resource for USDA Region 6 Forest Service (FS) and OR/WA Bureau of Land Management (BLM) personnel tasked with surveying for the presence of Oregon spotted frogs. Our objective was to summarize information to improve the efficiency of field surveys and increase chances of detection if frogs are present. We include overviews of historical and extant ranges of Oregon spotted frog. We briefly summarize what is known of Oregon spotted frog habitat associations and review aspects of behavior and ecology that are likely to affect detectability in the field. We summarize characteristics that can help differentiate Oregon spotted frog life stages from other northwestern ranid frogs encountered during surveys. Appendices include examples of data collection formats and a protocol for disinfecting field gear.

Interagency Special Status / Sensitive Species Pro↗

USGS2017

An evaluation of silver-stage American Eel conspecific chemical cueing during outmigration

American Eel Anguilla rostrata abundance has declined in recent decades, in part because sexually maturing, silver-stage adults, outmigrating from freshwater to oceanic spawning grounds, encounter migratory blockades or perish when passing through active hydroelectric turbines. To help improve downstream passage effectiveness and increase survival rates, the role of silver-stage American Eel conspecific chemical cueing during outmigration was investigated using a new type of bioassay. Inside a laboratory flume, downstream-swimming eels were exposed to both live (putative attractant) and dead (putative repellent) conspecific washings to determine whether their trajectory of downstream movement, level of activity, or time spent inside targeted areas of the arena changed after exposure. Silver eels were not attracted to or repulsed by either odor, as none of five scoring metrics indicated a behavioral response. Results did not support the hypothesis that conspecific chemical cueing is a mechanism for downstream migration coordination or danger avoidance; however responses may not have been readily apparent in this type of assay. Fisheries managers may opt to focus future research on more feasible restoration efforts using alternate experimental designs to remedy this ecological issue.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

USGS2015

Global trends in emerging viral diseases of wildlife origin

Fifty years ago, infectious diseases were rarely considered threats to wildlife populations, and the study of wildlife diseases was largely a neglected endeavor. Furthermore, public health leaders at that time had declared that “it is time to close the book on infectious diseases and the war against pestilence won,” a quote attributed to Dr. William H. Stewart in 1967. There is some debate whether he actually said these words; however, they reflect the widespread belief at that time (Spellberg, 2008). Leap forward to today, and the book on infectious diseases has been dusted off. There is general consensus that the global environment favors the emergence of infectious diseases, and in particular, diseases of wildlife origin (Taylor et al., 2001). Examples of drivers of these infectious diseases include climate and landscape changes, human demographic and behavior changes, global travel and trade, microbial adaptation, and lack of appropriate infrastructure for wildlife disease control and prevention (Daszak et al., 2001). The consequences of these emerging diseases are global and profound with increased burden on the public health system, negative impacts on the global economy and food security, declines and extinctions of wildlife species, and subsequent loss of ecosystem integrity. For example, 35 million people are currently living with HIV infection globally (http://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en); 400 million poultry have been culled since 2003 as a result of efforts to control highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (http://www.fao.org/avianflu/en/index.html), and there are increasing biological and ecological consequences. Examples of health threats to biodiversity include the “spillover” of human diseases to great ape populations (Köndgen et al., 2008), the near-extirpation of the black-footed ferret from canine distemper and sylvatic plague (for a review see Abbott et al., 2012), and threats to Hawaiian forest birds from introduced pathogens such as avian malaria and avian pox (van Riper et al., 1986, 2002). There are also newly discovered pathogens or diseases that have resulted in population declines, and global extinctions of several species. Examples include Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which causes a cutaneous fungal infection of amphibians and is linked to declines of amphibians globally (Kriger and Hero, 2009); and recently discovered Pseudogymnoascus (Geomyces) destructans, the etiologic agent of white-nose syndrome (WNS), which has caused precipitous declines of North American bat species (Blehert et al., 2009). Furthermore, there is increasing evidence of the subsequent impacts on human and ecosystem health; for example, increasing risk of exposure to Lyme disease as a consequence of decreased biodiversity (LoGiudice et al., 2003) as well as the economic cost of the loss of bats due to decreased insect control services (Boyles et al., 2011). Figure A12-1 is a timeline of important diseases investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey since the 1970s, which illustrates three factors: 1. The unprecedented emergence of new pathogens and geographic spread of known pathogens since the 1990s; 2. Diseases are increasingly causing large-scale, negative impacts on wildlife populations and spreading over larger geographic areas rather than remaining localized; and 3. Diseases are increasingly of concern for multiple sectors, including public health, agriculture and wildlife management agencies. Of increasing concern are these novel diseases such as WNS as they are hard to anticipate, particularly devastating to human health or wildlife populations, challenging to manage, spread over large geographic areas in short time periods, and may result in ecological ripple effects that are difficult to predict. The following article provides examples of recently emerged viral diseases of wildlife origin. The examples have been selected to illustrate the drivers of emerging viral diseases, both novel pathogens and previously known diseases, the impacts of these diseases, as well as the role of wildlife both as “villains” or reservoirs as well as “victims” of these viral diseases. The article also discusses potential management strategies for emerging viral diseases in wildlife populations and future science directions in wildlife health to prevent, prepare, respond to, and recover from these disease events. Finally, the concept of One Health and its potential role in developing solutions to these issues of mutual concern is discussed.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2002

Structural instability, multiple stable states, and hysteresis in periphyton driven by phosphorus enrichment in the Everglades

Periphyton is a key component of the Everglades ecosystems. It is a major primary producer, providing food and habitat for a variety of organisms, contributing material to the surface soil, and regulating water chemistry. Periphyton is sensitive to the phosphorus (P) supply and P enrichment has caused dramatic changes in the native Everglades periphyton assemblages. Periphyton also affects P availability by removing P from the water column and depositing a refractory portion into sediment. A quantitative understanding of the response of periphyton assemblages to P supply and its effects on P cycling could provide critical supports to decision making in the conservation and restoration of the Everglades. We constructed a model to examine the interaction between periphyton and P dynamics. The model contains two differential equations: P uptake and periphyton growth are assumed to follow the Monod equation and are limited by a modified logistic equation. Equilibrium and stability analyses suggest that P loading is the driving force and determines the system behavior. The position and number of steady states and the stability also depend upon the rate of sloughing, through which periphyton deposits refractory P into sediment. Multiple equilibria may exist, with two stable equilibria separated by an unstable equilibrium. Due to nonlinear interplay of periphyton and P in this model, catastrophe and hysteresis are likely to occur.

Florida↗

USGS1998

DNA-labeled clay: A sensitive new method for tracing particle transport

The behavior of mobile colloids and sediment in most natural environments remains poorly understood, in part because characteristics of existing sediment tracers limit their widespread use. Here we describe the development of a new approach that uses a DNA-labeled montmorillonite clay as a highly sensitive and selective sediment tracer that can potentially characterize sediment and colloid transport in a wide variety of environments, including marine, wetland, ground-water, and atmospheric systems. Characteristics of DNA in natural systems render it unsuitable as an aqueous tracer but admirably suited as a label for tracing particulates. The DNA-labeled-clay approach, using techniques developed from molecular biology, has extremely low detection limits, very specific detection, and a virtually infinite number of tracer signatures. Furthermore, DNA-labeled clay has the same physical characteristics as the particles it is designed to trace, it is environmentally benign, and it can be relatively inexpensively produced and detected. Our initial results show that short (500 base pair) strands of synthetically produced DNA reversibly adsorb to both Na-montmorillonite and powdered silica surfaces via a magnesium bridge. The DNA-montmorillonite surface complexes are stable in calcium-bicarbonate spring waters for periods of up to 18 days and only slowly desorb to the aqueous phase, whereas the silica surface complex is stable only in distilled water. Both materials readily release the adsorbed DNA in dilute EDTA solutions for amplification by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and quantification. The stability of the DNA-labeled clay complex suggests that this material would be appropriate for use as an extremely sensitive sediment tracer for flow periods of as long as 2 weeks, and possibly longer.

Geology↗

USGS2023

Linked foraging and bioenergetics modeling may inform fish parasite infection dynamics

The parasitic copepod Salmincola californiensis infects Pacific salmon and trout ( Oncorhynchus spp.) and often reaches high prevalence and intensity in reservoirs compared to stream systems. Recent research indicates that temperature plays a fundamental role in copepod development and fish susceptibility. Here, we expand a linked foraging and bioenergetics model to simulate infection risk. Based on juvenile salmon vertical migration patterns, we add estimates of copepod generations produced and thermal strata metrics that appear associated with copepodid aggregations and increased infection. Severe damage on hosts may be caused by the infectious copepodid, a life-stage not readily visible and thus not detectable using traditional fish screenings. We discuss model limitations, opportunities for future research, and the potential for inclusion of copepod expansion equations to existing linked bioenergetics models or observed behaviors of salmonids in other lentic systems. We demonstrate that using a temperature sensitive model framework that includes copepod infection dynamics is useful in interpreting other lines of evidence, such as fish mortality estimates. Collectively, our work provides a testable framework for future comparisons of infection potential and demonstrates how bioenergetics models may be useful in understanding host–parasite interactions.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

USGS2006

Intradaily variability of water quality in a shallow tidal lagoon: Mechanisms and implications

Although surface water quality and its underlying processes vary over time scales ranging from seconds to decades, they have historically been studied at the lower (weekly to interannual) frequencies. The aim of this study was to investigate intradaily variability of three water quality parameters in a small freshwater tidal lagoon (Mildred Island, California). High frequency time series of specific conductivity, water temperature, and chlorophyll a at two locations within the habitat were analyzed in conjunction with supporting hydrodynamic, meteorological, biological, and spatial mapping data. All three constituents exhibited large amplitude intradaily (e.g., semidiurnal tidal and diurnal) oscillations, and periodicity varied across constituents, space, and time. Like other tidal embayments, this habitat is influenced by several processes with distinct periodicities including physical controls, such as tides, solar radiation, and wind, and biological controls, such as photosynthesis, growth, and grazing. A scaling approach was developed to estimate individual process contributions to the observed variability. Scaling results were generally consistent with observations and together with detailed examination of time series and time derivatives, revealed specific mechanisms underlying the observed periodicities, including interactions between the tidal variability, heating, wind, and biology. The implications for monitoring were illustrated through subsampling of the data set. This exercise demonstrated how quantities needed by scientists and managers (e.g., mean or extreme concentrations) may be misrepresented by low frequency data and how short-duration high frequency measurements can aid in the design and interpretation of temporally coarser sampling programs. The dispersive export of chlorophyll a from the habitat exhibited a fortnightly variability corresponding to the modulation of semidiurnal tidal currents with the diurnal cycle of phytoplankton variability, demonstrating how high frequency interactions can govern long-term trends. Process identification, as through the scaling analysis here, can help us anticipate changes in system behavior and adapt our own interactions with the system.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2025

Variation in energetic balance among free-ranging polar bears during the spring mating and foraging season

Large carnivores are capable of consuming substantial biomasses that can significantly alter their body mass and condition over short periods. Here we examine the intra-seasonal variation of polar bear ( Ursus maritimus Phipps, 1774) body mass, energy intake, and condition in the spring from two subpopulations. We evaluate the biological and temporal factors that may have driven changes in body mass of 31 individuals captured and recaptured over 2–39 days and assess whether these changes influenced their estimated condition. Body mass changed by –61 to 33 kg ( = –2 kg) with bears exhibiting increases in mass with increasing age and decreases with greater initial mass. On average, estimated intake was 57 MJ/day. Estimated daily mass-specific body mass changes exhibited greater variation relative to previous measures in polar bears or brown bears ( U. arctos Linnaeus, 1758). Yet, across all bears, measures of condition remained similar between captures. The marked variation in mass gains or losses highlights the varying behavioral and physiological limitations that influence foraging success within this apex carnivore during a season when two key life history events converge wherein feeding is often reduced during mating activities despite the importance of the spring hyperphagia period to long-term energy balance.

Lancaster Sound, southern Beaufort Sea↗

USGS2021

Brood provisioning rates and fledgling behavior of Cordilleran Flycatchers in southwestern Colorado

The behavior of young songbirds after fledging is one of the least understood phases of the breeding cycle, although parental provisioning rates and movement of fledglings are key to understanding life history evolution. We studied Cordilleran Flycatchers ( Empidonax occidentalis ) at two sites in southwestern Colorado, USA, from 2012 to 2017. We banded and sexed breeding adults to determine the relative contributions of males and females to nestling and fledgling care, and attached radio-transmitters to nestlings to facilitate observations of brood behavior after fledging. Females made 60% and 78% of total observed feedings of nestlings and fledglings, respectively. Parental provisioning rates increased with nestling age, and per-nestling provisioning rates increased with brood size. Parental provisioning rates declined just before fledging, then increased just after fledging. Fledging times of individuals in broods were asynchronous and concentrated during the late afternoon and early evening. Males stopped caring for fledglings before females even though this species is single-brooded, with some late-season broods being abandoned by males. Broods spent the first three weeks after fledging within 400 m of nests, after which they began to disperse. Most aspects of the breeding biology of Cordilleran Flycatchers in our study, including the duration of nestling and fledging periods, female-dominated provisioning, and movement patterns of fledglings, were similar to those of other Empidonax species. However, the times when young fledged were not concentrated in the morning as reported in most other songbirds, and this result warrants additional study of the timing of fledging in ecologically and taxonomically similar species. The increased per-nestling provisioning rate with increasing brood size was unexpected, and additional study is needed to determine if this increase results from a trade-off between adult annual survival and productivity favoring increased provisioning of young in larger broods, or from the existence of high-quality individuals where larger clutches and higher provisioning rates are linked.

Colorado↗

USGS2013

Insights into the latent multinomial model through mark-resight data on female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year

Mark-resight designs for estimation of population abundance are common and attractive to researchers. However, inference from such designs is very limited when faced with sparse data, either from a low number of marked animals, a low probability of detection, or both. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, yearly mark-resight data are collected for female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year (FCOY), and inference suffers from both limitations. To overcome difficulties due to sparseness, we assume homogeneity in sighting probabilities over 16 years of bi-annual aerial surveys. We model counts of marked and unmarked animals as multinomial random variables, using the capture frequencies of marked animals for inference about the latent multinomial frequencies for unmarked animals. We discuss undesirable behavior of the commonly used discrete uniform prior distribution on the population size parameter and provide OpenBUGS code for fitting such models. The application provides valuable insights into subtleties of implementing Bayesian inference for latent multinomial models. We tie the discussion to our application, though the insights are broadly useful for applications of the latent multinomial model.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS2013

Habitat use of breeding green turtles Chelonia mydas tagged in Dry Tortugas National Park: Making use of local and regional MPAs

Use of existing marine protected areas (MPAs) by far-ranging marine turtles can be determined using satellite telemetry. Because of a lack of information on MPA use by marine turtles in the Gulf of Mexico, we used satellite transmitters in 2010 and 2011 to track movements of 11 adult female breeding green turtles ( Chelonia mydas ) tagged in Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO), in the Gulf of Mexico, south Florida, USA. Throughout the study period, turtles emerged every 9–18 days to nest. During the intervals between nesting episodes (i.e., inter-nesting periods), the turtles consistently used a common core-area within the DRTO boundary, determined using individual 50% kernel-density estimates (KDEs). We mapped the area in DRTO where individual turtle 50% KDEs overlapped using the USGS Along-Track Reef-Imaging System, and determined the diversity and distribution of various benthic-cover types within the mapped area. We also tracked turtles post-nesting as they transited to foraging sites 5–282 km away from tagging beaches; these sites were located both within DRTO and in the surrounding area of the Florida Keys and Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), a regional MPA. Year-round residency of 9 out of 11 individuals (82%) both within DRTO and in the FKNMS represents novel non-migratory behavior, which offers an opportunity for conservation of this imperiled species at both local and regional scales. These data comprise the first satellite-tracking results on adult nesting green turtles at this remote study site. Additional tracking could reveal whether the distinct inter-nesting and foraging sites delineated here will be repeatedly used in the future by these and other breeding green turtles.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Hydrologic record extension of water-level data in the Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN), 1991-99

The real-time Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) has been established to support a variety of scientific and water management purposes. The expansiveness of the Everglades, limited number of gaging stations, and extreme sensitivity of the ecosystem to small changes in water depth have created a need for accurate water-level and water-depth maps. The EDEN water-surface elevation model uses data from approximately 240 gages in the Everglades to create daily continuous interpolations of the water-surface elevation and water depth for the freshwater portion of the Everglades from 2000 to the present (2014). These maps provide hydrologic data previously unavailable for assessing biological and ecological studies. Ecologists working in the Everglades expressed a need to the EDEN project team for daily EDEN water-level surfaces from 1990 to 1999. The additional 10 years of surfaces will provide ecologists and resource managers with two decades (1991–2011) of surfaces to analyze hydrologic dynamics. Before 2000, many of the EDEN gages used to generate water surfaces were not in operation. These datasets were extended to provide estimations of hydrologic time-series histories. The general approach to the record extension (hindcasts) was to (1) create a database of available data from 1990 to the present; (2) use dynamic cluster analysis to group stations with similar hydrologic behaviors for subareas of the Everglades with a large number of stations; (3) use results from the cluster analysis to select candidate explanatory variables; (4) develop linear regression or artificial neural network models to extend water-level records; and (5) evaluate record extensions by using model performance statistics and comparison of water-surface maps for similar hydrologic conditions for the hindcasted period (1991–99) and measured period (2000–11). To hindcast and fill data records, 214 empirical models were developed—189 are linear regression models and 25 are artificial neural network models. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) for 163 of the models is greater than 0.80 and the median percent model error (root mean square error divided by the range of the measured data) is 5 percent. To evaluate the performance of the hindcast models as a group, contour maps of modeled water-level surfaces at 2-centimeter (cm) intervals were generated using the hindcasted data. The 2-cm contour maps were examined for selected days to verify that water surfaces from the EDEN model are consistent with the input data. The biweekly 2-cm contour maps did show a higher number of issues during days in 1990 as compared to days after 1990. May 1990 had the lowest water levels in the Everglades of the 21-year dataset used for the hindcasting study. To hindcast these record low conditions in 1990, many of the hindcast models would require large extrapolations beyond the range of the predictive quality of the models. For these reasons, it was decided to limit the hindcasted data to the period January 1, 1991, to December 31, 1999. Overall, the hindcasted and gap-filled data are assumed to provide reasonable estimates of station-specific water-level data for an extended historical period to inform research and natural resource management in the Everglades.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Camera traps and mark-resight models: The value of ancillary data for evaluating assumptions

Unbiased estimators of abundance and density are fundamental to the study of animal ecology and critical for making sound management decisions. Capture–recapture models are generally considered the most robust approach for estimating these parameters but rely on a number of assumptions that are often violated but rarely validated. Mark-resight models, a form of capture–recapture, are well suited for use with noninvasive sampling methods and allow for a number of assumptions to be relaxed. We used ancillary data from continuous video and radio telemetry to evaluate the assumptions of mark-resight models for abundance estimation on a barrier island raccoon (Procyon lotor) population using camera traps. Our island study site was geographically closed, allowing us to estimate real survival and in situ recruitment in addition to population size. We found several sources of bias due to heterogeneity of capture probabilities in our study, including camera placement, animal movement, island physiography, and animal behavior. Almost all sources of heterogeneity could be accounted for using the sophisticated mark-resight models developed by McClintock et al. (2009b) and this model generated estimates similar to a spatially explicit mark-resight model previously developed for this population during our study. Spatially explicit capture–recapture models have become an important tool in ecology and confer a number of advantages; however, non-spatial models that account for inherent individual heterogeneity may perform nearly as well, especially where immigration and emigration are limited. Non-spatial models are computationally less demanding, do not make implicit assumptions related to the isotropy of home ranges, and can provide insights with respect to the biological traits of the local population.

North Carolina↗

USGS2016

Research on Golden-winged Warblers: Recent progress and current needs

Considerable advances have been made in knowledge about Golden-winged Warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) in the past decade. Recent employment of molecular analysis, stable-isotope analysis, telemetry-based monitoring of survival and behavior, and spatially explicit modeling techniques have added to, and revised, an already broad base of published knowledge. Here, we synthesize findings primarily from recent peer-reviewed literature on Golden-winged Warblers, from this volume and elsewhere, and we identify some of the substantial remaining research needs. We have organized this synthesis by stages of the Golden-winged Warbler annual cycle. First, we discuss the relatively well-studied breeding-grounds ecology including nesting and post-fledging ecology and hybridization with closely related Blue-winged Warblers ( Vermivora cyanoptera ). Second, we discuss the much-less-studied, non-breeding-grounds ecology, including the first empirical studies of non-breeding-grounds cover-type associations and spatial and social behavioral ecology. Third, we address migratory connectivity and migration ecology, for which little is known and research has only just begun. Last, we close with cautious optimism that current knowledge is adequate to inform initial conservation and management plans for Golden-winged Warblers, and with a sobering acknowledgement of the quantity of research still needed.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

USGS2026

Climate change and water quality influence on juvenile Atlantic sturgeon aggregation in the Altamaha River, Georgia

In the summer, juvenile Atlantic sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) are vulnerable to extreme water quality conditions (i.e., temperature, dissolved oxygen [DO], and salinity) in the estuaries they inhabit. The effects of climate change on Atlantic sturgeon are largely unknown, but it may exacerbate these water quality issues. We used a 20-year dataset from the Altamaha River estuary, Georgia, USA to fit negative binomial mixed-effects models describing the relationship between water quality and catch per net hour of juvenile Atlantic sturgeon. Water temperature and DO were significant positive predictors of catch; salinity and sampling year were significant negative predictors. The interaction between temperature and DO was also significant. Water temperature, salinity, and year were significant in explaining variability in catch. Our modeling results suggest that response to water quality depends on fish age. Next, we used global climate projections to construct future climate scenarios incorporating warming water and increased salinity. By coupling these predictions with catch models, we forecast juvenile Atlantic sturgeon catch as a proxy for distribution. Water temperature increases of 1–5 °C led to predicted catch increases of 5–24%, although this result may be influenced by aggregation behavior or sampling limitations at high temperatures. Salinity increases of 1–2 ppt led to 9–17% decreases in catch, suggesting that saltwater intrusion may limit future Atlantic sturgeon estuarine habitat availability. Our study combines a long-term dataset with a robust statistical modeling approach to offer some of the first insights into future climate change effects on juvenile Atlantic sturgeon’s southern nursery habitats.

Georgia↗