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Evaluating environmental change and behavioral decision-making for sustainability policy using an agent-based model: A case study for the Smoky Hill River Watershed, Kansas

Sustainability has been at the forefront of the environmental research agenda of the integrated anthroposphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere since the last century and will continue to be critically important for future environmental science. However, linking humans and the environment through effective policy remains a major challenge for sustainability research and practice. Here we address this gap using an agent-based model (ABM) for a coupled natural and human systems in the Smoky Hill River Watershed (SHRW), Kansas, USA. For this freshwater-dependent agricultural watershed with a highly variable flow regime influenced by human-induced land-use and climate change, we tested the support for an environmental policy designed to conserve and protect fish biodiversity in the SHRW. We develop a proof of concept interdisciplinary ABM that integrates field data on hydrology, ecology (fish richness), social-psychology (value-belief-norm) and economics, to simulate human agents' decisions to support environmental policy. The mechanism to link human behaviors to environmental changes is the social-psychological sequence identified by the value-belief-norm framework and is informed by hydrological and fish ecology models. Our results indicate that (1) cultural factors influence the decision to support the policy; (2) a mechanism modifying social-psychological factors can influence the decision-making process; (3) there is resistance to environmental policy in the SHRW, even under potentially extreme climate conditions; and (4) the best opportunities for policy acceptance were found immediately after extreme environmental events. The modeling approach presented herein explicitly links biophysical and social science has broad generality for sustainability problems.

Kansas

Rethinking avian response to Tamarix on the lower Colorado River: A threshold hypothesis

Many of the world's large river systems have been greatly altered in the past century due to river regulation, agriculture, and invasion of introduced Tamarix spp. (saltcedar, tamarisk). These riverine ecosystems are known to provide important habitat for avian communities, but information on responses of birds to differing levels of Tamarix is not known. Past research on birds along the Colorado River has shown that avian abundance in general is greater in native than in non-native habitat. In this article, we address habitat restoration on the lower Colorado River by comparing abundance and diversity of avian communities at a matrix of different amounts of native and non-native habitats at National Wildlife Refuges in Arizona. Two major patterns emerged from this study: (1) Not all bird species responded to Tamarix in a similar fashion, and for many bird species, abundance was highest at intermediate Tamarix levels (40-60%), suggesting a response threshold. (2) In Tamarix-dominated habitats, the greatest increase in bird abundance occurred when small amounts of native vegetation were present as a component of that habitat. In fact, Tamarix was the best vegetation predictor of avian abundance when compared to vegetation density and canopy cover. Our results suggest that to positively benefit avian abundance and diversity, one cost-effective way to rehabilitate larger monoculture Tamarix stands would be to add relatively low levels of native vegetation (???20-40%) within homogenous Tamarix habitat. In addition, this could be much more cost effective and feasible than attempting to replace all Tamarix with native vegetation. ?? 2008 Society for Ecological Restoration International.

Restoration Ecology

Land-Use Change Trends in the Interior Lowland Ecoregion

This report describes land-cover trends in the Interior River Lowland ecoregion, located primarily in southern Illinois and includes the confluence areas of the Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Illinois, and Wabash Rivers, and their tributaries. Land-cover change statistics were tabulated from forty 10 kilometers (km) by 10-km multi-spectral remote-sensing sample areas collected from 1973 to 2000 and classified into nine primary land-cover categories. The results indicated stable land use. Agricultural land use increased, but acreage was lost to urbanization, especially in the St. Louis area. Recreational and conservation land uses are underrepresented relative to population demand. Findings were comparable to results of other land use research.

Scientific Investigations Report

Small reservoir distribution, rate of construction, and uses in the upper and middle Chattahoochee basins of the Georgia Piedmont, USA, 1950-2010

Construction of small reservoirs affects ecosystem processes in numerous ways including fragmenting stream habitat, altering hydrology, and modifying water chemistry. While the upper and middle Chattahoochee River basins within the Southeastern United States Piedmont contain few natural lakes, they have a high density of small reservoirs (more than 7500 small reservoirs in the nearly 12,000 km2 basin). Policymakers and water managers in the region have little information about small reservoir distribution, uses, or the cumulative inundation of land cover caused by small reservoir construction. Examination of aerial photography reveals the spatiotemporal patterns and extent of small reservoir construction from 1950 to 2010. Over that 60 year timeframe, the area inundated by water increased nearly six fold (from 19 reservoirs covering 0.16% of the study area in 1950 to 329 reservoirs covering 0.95% of the study area in 2010). While agricultural practices were associated with reservoir creation from 1950 to 1970, the highest rates of reservoir construction occurred during subsequent suburban development between 1980 and 1990. Land cover adjacent to individual reservoirs transitioned over time through agricultural abandonment, land reforestation, and conversion to development during suburban expansion. The prolific rate of ongoing small reservoir creation, particularly in newly urbanizing regions and developing counties, necessitates additional attention from watershed managers and continued scientific research into cumulative environmental impacts at the watershed scale.

Georgia

USGS highly pathogenic avian influenza research strategy

Avian influenza viruses are naturally occurring in wild birds such as ducks, geese, swans, and gulls. These viruses generally do not cause illness in wild birds, however, when spread to poultry they can be highly pathogenic and cause illness and death in backyard and commercial farms. Outbreaks may cause devastating agricultural economic losses and some viral strains have the potential to infect people directly. Furthermore, the combination of avian influenza viruses with mammalian viruses can result in strains with the ability to transmit from person to person, possibly leading to viruses with pandemic potential. All known pandemic influenza viruses have had some genetic material of avian origin. Since 1996, a strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, H5N1, has caused infection in wild birds, losses to poultry farms in Eurasia and North Africa, and led to the deaths of several hundred people. Spread of the H5N1 virus and other influenza strains from China was likely facilitated by migratory birds. In December 2014, HPAI was detected in poultry in Canada and migratory birds in the United States. Since then, HPAI viruses have spread to large parts of the United States and will likely continue to spread through migratory bird flyways and other mechanisms throughout North America. In the United States, HPAI viruses have severely affected the poultry industry with millions of domestic birds dead or culled. These strains of HPAI are not known to cause disease in humans; however, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) advise caution when in close contact with infected birds. Experts agree that HPAI strains currently circulating in wild birds of North America will likely persist for the next few years. This unprecedented situation presents risks to the poultry industry, natural resource management, and potentially human health. Scientific knowledge and decision support tools are urgently needed to understand factors affecting the persistence of HPAI in wild birds, to forecast future spread of HPAI by wild birds, and to detect novel strains of HPAI that may emerge.

Fact Sheet

Fates and fingerprints of sulfur and carbon following wildfire in economically important croplands of California, U.S.

Sulfur (S) is widely used in agriculture, yet little is known about its fates within upland watersheds, particularly in combination with disturbances like wildfire. Our study examined the effects of land use and wildfire on the biogeochemical “fingerprints,” or the quantity and chemical composition, of S and carbon (C). We conducted our research within the Napa River Watershed, California, U.S., where high S applications to vineyards are common, and ~ 20% of the watershed burned in October 2017, introducing a disturbance now common across the warmer, drier Western U.S. We used a laboratory rainfall experiment to compare unburned and low severity burned vineyard and grassland soils. We then sampled streams draining sub-catchments with differing land use and degrees of burn and burn severity to understand combined effects at broader spatial scales. Before the laboratory experiment, vineyard soils had 2–3.5 times more S than grassland soils, while burned soils—regardless of land use—had 1.5–2 times more C than unburned soils. During the laboratory experiment, vineyard soil leachates had 16–20 times more S than grassland leachates, whereas leachate C was more variable across land use and burn soil types. Unburned and burned vineyard soils leached S with δ 34 S values enriched 6–15‰ relative to grassland soils, likely due to microbial S processes within vineyard soils. Streams draining vineyards also had the fingerprint of agricultural S, with ~2–5 fold higher S concentrations and ~ 10‰ enriched δ 34 S-SO 4 2− values relative to streams draining non-agricultural areas. However, streams draining a higher fraction of burned non-agricultural areas also had enriched δ 34 S values relative to unburned non-agricultural areas, which we attribute to loss of 32 S during combustion. Our findings illustrate the interacting effects of wildfire and land use on watershed S and C cycling—a new consideration under a changing climate, with significant implications for ecosystem function and human health.

California

U.S. Geological Survey energy and wildlife research annual report for 2019

Access to affordable and reliable energy remains a critical need for people and the economy. To satisfy society’s demand for energy, the United States is expanding access to vast natural resources to produce electricity as well as petroleum and natural gas products. Development of our Nation’s energy resources, however, often conflicts directly with the equally vast fish and wildlife resources, which contribute billions of dollars to the economy through harvest, recreation, and services to humans and agriculture. The effects of energy development on living resources include fragmentation of populations, degradation or loss of habitat, and mortality of birds, bats, fish, and other wildlife interacting with energy generation facilities. Thus, an expanding energy infrastructure results in new requirements for land and ocean conversion for project siting and operational decisions to minimize risk to fish and wildlife resources. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists partner with more than 150 Federal, State, and local government agencies; Tribal nations; academic institutions; and nongovernmental organizations to deliver timely and relevant information on pressing resource management issues. This report summarizes ongoing USGS research projects and publications related to the impacts of energy development on fish and wildlife resources, tools to assess those impacts, and solutions to avoid or minimize risk. This information helps decision makers balance development with stewardship of the Nation’s fish and wildlife heritage.

Circular

Deforestation trends of tropical dry forests in central Brazil

Tropical dry forests are the most threatened forest type in the world yet a paucity of research about them stymies development of appropriate conservation actions. The Paranã River Basin has the most significant dry forest formations in the Cerrado biome of central Brazil and is threatened by intense land conversion to pastures and agriculture. We examined changes in Paranã River Basin deforestation rates and fragmentation across three time intervals that covered 31 yr using Landsat imagery. Our results indicated a 66.3 percent decrease in forest extent between 1977 and 2008, with an annual rate of forest cover change of 3.5 percent. Landscape metrics further indicated severe forest loss and fragmentation, resulting in an increase in the number of fragments and reduction in patch sizes. Forest fragments in flatlands have virtually disappeared and the only significant forest remnants are mostly found over limestone outcrops in the eastern part of the basin. If current patterns persist, we project that these forests will likely disappear within 25 yr. These patterns may be reversed with creation of protected areas and involvement of local people to preserve small fragments that can be managed for restoration.

Biotropica

Water-Surface Elevations, Discharge, and Water-Quality Data for Selected Sites in the Warm Springs Area near Moapa, Nevada

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Southern Nevada Water Authority and the Nevada Division of Water Resources, operates and maintains a surface-water monitoring network of 6 continuous-record stream-flow gaging stations and 11 partial-record stations in the Warm Springs area near Moapa, Nevada. Permanent land-surface bench marks were installed within the Warm Springs area by the Las Vegas Valley Water District, the Southern Nevada Water Authority, and the U.S. Geological Survey to determine water-surface elevations at all network monitoring sites. Vertical datum elevation and horizontal coordinates were established for all bench marks through a series of Differential Global Positioning System surveys. Optical theodolite surveys were made to transfer Differential Global Positioning System vertical datums to reference marks installed at each monitoring site. The surveys were completed in June 2004 and water-surface elevations were measured on August 17, 2004. Water-surface elevations ranged from 1,810.33 feet above North American Vertical Datum of 1988 at a stream-gaging station in the Pederson Springs area to 1,706.31 feet at a station on the Muddy River near Moapa. Discharge and water-quality data were compiled for the Warm Springs area and include data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Nevada Division of Water Resources, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Moapa Valley Water District, Desert Research Institute, and Converse Consultants. Historical and current hydrologic data-collection networks primarily are related to changes in land- and water-use activities in the Warm Springs area. These changes include declines in ranching and agricultural use, the exportation of water to other areas of Moapa Valley, and the creation of a national wildlife refuge. Water-surface elevations, discharge, and water-quality data compiled for the Warm Springs area will help identify (1) effects of changing vegetation within the former agricultural lands, (2) effects of restoration activities in the wildlife refuge, and (3) potential impacts of ground-water withdrawals.

Open-File Report

An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently, in the response of agricultural systems.

Open-File Report

Response of Florida shelf ecosystems to climate change: from macro to micro scales

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research in St. Petersburg, Fla., is focusing attention on marine environments of the Florida shelf at three levels, from regional to estuarine to the individual organism. The USGS is partnering on this project with the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (DACS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the University of South Florida (USF) in marine studies. The specific goals of these combined efforts are an improved understanding of the effects of ocean acidification on regional carbonate processes, changes in individual estuaries, and organism-level response. This understanding will assist in developing appropriate Federal, State, and local management responses to climate change in coastal areas.

Fact Sheet

Understanding pesticides in California's Delta

The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (Delta) is the hub of California’s water system and also an important habitat for imperiled fish and wildlife. Aquatic organisms are exposed to mixtures of pesticides that flow through the maze of Delta water channels from sources including agricultural, landscape, and urban pest-control applications. While we do not know all of the effects pesticides have on the ecosystem, there is evidence that they cause some damage to organisms in the Delta. Decades of USGS research have provided a good understanding of when, where, and how pesticides enter the Delta. However, pesticide use is continually changing. New field studies and methods are needed so that scientists can analyze which pesticides are present in the Delta, and at what concentrations, enabling them to estimate exposure and ultimate effects on organisms. Continuing research will provide resource managers and stakeholders with crucial information to manage the Delta wisely.

California

Retrospective Review of Watershed Characteristics and a Framework for Future Research in the Sarasota Bay Watershed, Florida

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Sarasota Bay Estuary Program conducted a retrospective review of characteristics of the Sarasota Bay watershed in west-central Florida. This report describes watershed characteristics, surface- and ground-water processes, and the environmental setting of the Sarasota Bay watershed. Population growth during the last 50 years is transforming the Sarasota Bay watershed from rural and agriculture to urban and suburban. The transition has resulted in land-use changes that influence surface- and ground-water processes in the watershed. Increased impervious cover decreases recharge to ground water and increases overland runoff and the pollutants carried in the runoff. Soil compaction resulting from agriculture, construction, and recreation activities also decreases recharge to ground water. Conventional approaches to stormwater runoff have involved conveyances and large storage areas. Low-impact development approaches, designed to provide recharge near the precipitation point-of-contact, are being used increasingly in the watershed. Simple pollutant loading models applied to the Sarasota Bay watershed have focused on large-scale processes and pollutant loads determined from empirical values and mean event concentrations. Complex watershed models and more intensive data-collection programs can provide the level of information needed to quantify (1) the effects of lot-scale land practices on runoff, storage, and ground-water recharge, (2) dry and wet season flux of nutrients through atmospheric deposition, (3) changes in partitioning of water and contaminants as urbanization alters predevelopment rainfall-runoff relations, and (4) linkages between watershed models and lot-scale models to evaluate the effect of small-scale changes over the entire Sarasota Bay watershed. As urbanization in the Sarasota Bay watershed continues, focused research on water-resources issues can provide information needed by water-resources managers to ensure the future health of the watershed.

Open-File Report

Comparing imidacloprid, clothianidin, and azoxystrobin runoff from lettuce fields using a soil drench or treated seeds in the Salinas Valley, California

Neonicotinoid insecticide use has increased over the last decade, including as agricultural seed treatments (application of chemical in a coating to the seed prior to planting). In California, multiple crops, including lettuce, can be grown using neonicotinoid treated seeds or receive a direct neonicotinoid soil application (drenching) at planting. Using research plots, this study compared pesticide runoff in four treatments: (1) imidacloprid seed treatment; (2) clothianidin seed treatment; (3) imidacloprid drench and an azoxystrobin seed treatment; and (4) a control with no pesticidal treatment. Neonicotinoid and azoxystrobin concentrations were measured in surface water runoff during six irrigations events in the 2020 growing seasons. Results showed runoff concentrations up to 1308 (±1200) ng L −1 for imidacloprid drench treatment, 431 (±100) ng L −1 for clothianidin seed treatment, 135 (±60) ng L −1 for imidacloprid seed treatment, 13 (±10) ng L −1 for azoxystrobin seed treatment (treatments averaged). The percent of applied mass in runoff over the entire sampling period varied by compound; the imidacloprid seed treatment and drench were similar (0.015 and 0.019%, respectively) to the clothianidin seed treatment (0.036%) while the azoxystrobin seed treatment was much higher (15%). Although the proportion of imidacloprid in runoff was similar for imidacloprid treatments, the mass applied during soil drench was > 4x the amount applied from the imidacloprid seed treatment. Surface soils were collected before planting and at the end of the trial. The neonicotinoids were detected in soil throughout the study and average maximum concentrations were 9–13 ng g −1 ; azoxystrobin was detected in only two soils at concentrations up to 0.57 ng g −1 . These results elucidate the comparative mass runoff resulting from planting treated seed and soil drench applications and highlight the value of additional work to characterize off-site transport from the many commodities that may be utilizing treated seeds.

California

Land use structures fish assemblages in reservoirs of the Tennessee River

Inputs of nutrients, sediments and detritus from catchments can promote selected components of reservoir fish assemblages, while hindering others. However, investigations linking these catchment subsidies to fish assemblages have generally focussed on one or a handful of species. Considering this paucity of community-level awareness, we sought to explore the association between land use and fish assemblage composition in reservoirs. To this end, we compared fish assemblages in reservoirs of two sub-basins of the Tennessee River representing differing intensities of agricultural development, and hypothesised that fish assemblage structure indicated by species percentage composition would differ among reservoirs in the two sub-basins. Using multivariate statistical analysis, we documented inter-basin differences in land use, reservoir productivity and fish assemblages, but no differences in reservoir morphometry or water regime. Basins were separated along a gradient of forested and non-forested catchment land cover, which was directly related to total nitrogen, total phosphorous and chlorophyll- a concentrations. Considering the extensive body of knowledge linking land use to aquatic systems, it is reasonable to postulate a hierarchical model in which productivity has direct links to terrestrial inputs, and fish assemblages have direct links to both land use and productivity. We observed a shift from an invertivore-based fish assemblage in forested catchments to a detritivore-based fish assemblage in agricultural catchments that may be a widespread pattern among reservoirs and other aquatic ecosystems.

Tennessee River

Ecoregional differences in late-20th-century land-use and land-cover change in the U.S. northern great plains

Land-cover and land-use change usually results from a combination of anthropogenic drivers and biophysical conditions found across multiple scales, ranging from parcel to regional levels. A group of four Level 111 ecoregions located in the U.S. northern Great Plains is used to demonstrate the similarities and differences in land change during nearly a 30-year period (1973-2000) using results from the U.S. Geological Survey's Land Cover Trends project. There were changes to major suites of land-cover; the transitions between agriculture and grassland/shrubland and the transitions among wetland, water, agriculture, and grassland/ shrubland were affected by different factors. Anthropogenic drivers affected the land-use tension (or land-use competition) between agriculture and grassland/shrubland land-covers, whereas changes between wetland and water land-covers, and their relationship to agriculture and grassland/shrubland land-covers, were mostly affected by regional weather cycles. More land-use tension between agriculture and grassland/shrubland landcovers occurred in ecoregions with greater amounts of economically marginal cropland. Land-cover change associated with weather variability occurred in ecoregions that had large concentrations of wetlands and water impoundments, such as the Missouri River reservoirs. The Northwestern Glaciated Plains ecoregion had the highest overall estimated percentage of change because it had both land-use tension between agriculture and grassland/shrubland land-covers and wetland-water changes.

Great Plains Research

Migratory bird habitat in relation to tile drainage and poorly drained hydrologic soil groups

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is home to more than 50% of the migratory waterfowl in North America. Although the PPR provides an abundance of temporary and permanent wetlands for nesting and feeding, increases in commodity prices and agricultural drainage practices have led to a trend of wetland drainage. The Northern Shoveler is a migratory dabbling duck species that uses wetland habitats and cultivated croplands in the PPR. Richland County in North Dakota and Roberts County in South Dakota have an abundance of wetlands and croplands and were chosen as the study areas for this research to assess the wetland size and cultivated cropland in relation to hydrologic soil groups for the Northern Shoveler habitat. This study used geographic information system data to analyze Northern Shoveler habitats in association with Natural Resource Conservation Service soil data. Habitats, which are spatially associated with certain hydrologic soil groups, may be at risk of artificial drainage installations because of their proximity to cultivated croplands and soil lacking in natural drainage that may become wet or inundated. Findings indicate that most wetlands that are part of Northern Shoveler habitats were within or adjacent to cultivated croplands. The results also revealed soil hydrologic groups with high runoff potential and low water transmission rates account for most of the soil within the Northern Shoveler‘s wetland and cropland habitats. Habitats near agriculture with high runoff potential are likely to be drained and this has the potential of reducing Northern Shoveler habitat.

Conference Paper

The future of fungi: Threats and opportunities

The fungal kingdom represents an extraordinary diversity of organisms with profound impacts across animal, plant, and ecosystem health. Fungi simultaneously support life, by forming beneficial symbioses with plants and producing life-saving medicines, and bring death, by causing devastating diseases in humans, plants, and animals. With climate change, increased antimicrobial resistance, global trade, environmental degradation, and novel viruses altering the impact of fungi on health and disease, developing new approaches is now more crucial than ever to combat the threats posed by fungi and to harness their extraordinary potential for applications in human health, food supply, and environmental remediation. To address this aim, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund convened a workshop to unite leading experts on fungal biology from academia and industry to strategize innovative solutions to global challenges and fungal threats. This report provides recommendations to accelerate fungal research and highlights the major research advances and ideas discussed at the meeting pertaining to 5 major topics: (1) Connections between fungi and climate change and ways to avert climate catastrophe; (2) Fungal threats to humans and ways to mitigate them; (3) Fungal threats to agriculture and food security and approaches to ensure a robust global food supply; (4) Fungal threats to animals and approaches to avoid species collapse and extinction; and (5) Opportunities presented by the fungal kingdom, including novel medicines and enzymes.

G3 Genes, Genomes, Genetics