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Effects of land cover on water table, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge: A Field observation and analysis

The effects of land cover on water table, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge were studied with water level measurements collected from two monitoring wells over a period of 122 days. The two wells were installed under similar conditions except that one was drilled on the east side of a creek which was covered with grass, and the other on the west side of the creek which was burned into a bare ground. Substantial differences in water level fluctuations were observed at these two wells. The water level in the east grass (EG) well was generally lower and had much less response to rainfall events than the west no-grass (WNG) well. Grass cover lowered the water table, reduced soil moisture through ET losses, and thus reduced groundwater recharge. The amount of ET by the grass estimated with a water table recession model decreased exponentially from 7.6 mm/day to zero as the water table declined from near the ground surface to 1.42 m below the ground surface in 33 days. More groundwater recharge was received on the WNG side than on the EG side following large rainfall events and by significant slow internal downward drainage which may last many days after rainfall. Because of the decreased ET and increased R, significantly more baseflow and chemical loads may be generated from a bare ground watershed compared to a vegetated watershed. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology

Predicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States

Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster damages in the United States, with billions of dollars incurred every year in the form of government payouts, property damages, and agricultural losses. The Federal Emergency Management Agency oversees the delineation of floodplains to mitigate damages, but disparities exist between locations designated as high risk and where flood damages occur due to land use and climate changes and incomplete floodplain mapping. We harnessed publicly available geospatial datasets and random forest algorithms to analyze the spatial distribution and underlying drivers of flood damage probability caused by excessive rainfall and overflowing water bodies across the conterminous United States. From this, we produced the first spatially complete map of flood damage probability for the nation, along with spatially explicit standard errors for four selected cities. We trained models using the locations of historical reported flood damage events ( n = 71,434) and a suite of geospatial predictors (e.g., flood severity, climate, socio-economic exposure, topographic variables, soil properties, and hydrologic characteristics). We developed independent models for each hydrologic unit code level 2 watershed and generated a flood damage probability for each 100-m pixel. Our model classified damage or no damage with an average area under the curve accuracy of 0.75; however, model performance varied by environmental conditions, with certain land cover classes (e.g., forest) resulting in higher error rates than others (e.g., wetlands). Our results identified flood damage probability hotspots across multiple spatial and regional scales, with high probabilities common in both inland and coastal regions. The highest flood damage probabilities tended to be in areas of low elevation, in close proximity to streams, with extreme precipitation, and with high urban road density. Given rapid environmental changes, our study demonstrates an efficient approach for updating flood damage probability estimates across the nation.

Environmental Research Letters

Simulations of flow and prediction of sediment movement in Wymans Run, Cochranton Borough, Crawford County, Pennsylvania

In small watersheds, runoff entering local waterways from large storms can cause rapid and profound changes in the streambed that can contribute to flooding. Wymans Run, a small stream in Cochranton Borough, Crawford County, experienced a large rain event in June 2008 that caused sediment to be deposited at a bridge. A hydrodynamic model, Flow and Sediment Transport and Morphological Evolution of Channels (FaSTMECH), which is incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey Multi-Dimensional Surface-Water Modeling System (MD_SWMS) was constructed to predict boundary shear stress and velocity in Wymans Run using data from the June 2008 event. Shear stress and velocity values can be used to indicate areas of a stream where sediment, transported downstream, can be deposited on the streambed. Because of the short duration of the June 2008 rain event, streamflow was not directly measured but was estimated using U.S. Army Corps of Engineers one-dimensional Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Scenarios to examine possible engineering solutions to decrease the amount of sediment at the bridge, including bridge expansion, channel expansion, and dredging upstream from the bridge, were simulated using the FaSTMECH model. Each scenario was evaluated for potential effects on water-surface elevation, boundary shear stress, and velocity.

Pennsylvania

Selected hydrologic data for urban watersheds in South Carolina, 1983-90

Rainfall and streamflow data were collected at 23 gaging stations located in urban watersheds in South Carolina from 1983-90. The site selection process and the instrumentation used to collect the data are described. A compilation of rainfall and streamflow data in graphic and tabular form for seven selected events at each gaging station are presented. A gaging-station description and a listing of certain streamflow and basin characteristics also are included.

South Carolina

Escherichia coli Concentrations in the Mill Creek Watershed, Cleveland, Ohio, 2001-2004

Mill Creek in Cleveland, Ohio, receives discharges from combined-sewer overflows (CSOs) and other sanitary-sewage inputs. These discharges affect the water quality of the creek and that of its receiving stream, the Cuyahoga River. In an effort to mitigate this problem, the Northeast Ohio Regional Sewer District implemented a project to eliminate or control (by reducing the number of overflows) all of the CSOs in the Mill Creek watershed. This study focused on monitoring the microbiological water quality of the creek before and during sewage-collection system modifications. Routine samples were collected semimonthly from August 2001 through September 2004 at a site near a U.S. Geological Survey stream gage near the mouth of Mill Creek. In addition, event samples were collected September 19 and 22, 2003, when rainfall accumulations were 0.5 inches (in.) or greater. Concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) were determined and instantaneous discharges were calculated. Streamflow and water-quality characteristics were measured at the time of sampling, and precipitation data measured at a nearby precipitation gage were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Concentrations of E. coli were greater than Ohio's single-sample maximum for primary-contact recreation (298 colony-forming units per 100 milliliters (CFU/100 mL)) in 84 percent of the routine samples collected. In all but one routine sample E. coli concentrations in samples collected when instantaneous streamflows were greater than 20 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) were greater than Ohio's single-sample maximum. When precipitation occurred in the 24-hour period before routine sample collection, concentrations were greater than the maximum in 89 percent of the samples as compared to 73 percent when rainfall was absent during the 24 hours prior to routine sample collection. Before modifications to the sewage-collection system in the watershed began, E. coli concentrations in Mill Creek ranged from 220 to 29,000 CFU/100 mL. After major modifications, E. coli concentrations ranged from 110 to 80,000 CFU/100 mL. The percentage of sample E. coli concentrations in the former group greater than Ohio's single-sample maximum was 88 percent, whereas 85 percent of sample concentrations was greater than the maximum after major modifications occurred. Instantaneous discharges of E. coli were calculated for each of the modification periods. No statistically significant difference was observed between the median instantaneous discharges of E. coli for the premodification and minor-modification periods (5.1 ? 106 and 3.6 ? 106 CFU per second, respectively). During rainfall events in September 2003, samples were collected every 15 to 30 minutes. E. coli concentrations in all of these samples (n = 34) were greater than Ohio's single-sample maximum for primary-contact recreation. On September 19, total accumulated rainfall was 1.7 in., and streamflow reached a peak of 1,040 ft3/s. Sample collection started after 0.8 in. of precipitation had fallen and continued throughout the remainder of the storm. For these samples, E. coli concentrations ranged from 32,000 to 140,000 CFU/100 mL. On September 22, total accumulated rainfall was 0.5 in., and streamflow reached a peak of 497 ft3/s. Sample collection began before the start of the rain and continued throughout the storm. E. coli concentrations ranged from 450 to 260,000 CFU/100 mL.

Open-File Report

Determination of flood hydrographs for streams in South Carolina: Volume 1. Simulation of flood hydrographs for rural watersheds in South Carolina

A method is given for simulating a typical (average) flood hydrograph corresponding to a peak discharge of specific recurrence interval for ungaged rural basins having drainage areas less than 500 sq mi in South Carolina. Dimensionless hydrographs were developed for three regions on the basis of 188 storm events at 49 stations that represent a wide range of drainage area sizes and basin conditions. The design peak discharge and a basin lagtime (which has been adjusted to produce correct hydrograph volume) are required to apply the technique. The standard errors of estimate for simulated hydrograph widths at 50 and 75%, respectively, of observed stormflow were +/-14.1 and +/-18.3% for basins in the Blue Ridge physiographic province, +/-29.2 and +/-36.2% for basins in the Piedmont province, and +/-17.8 and +/-22.8% for basins in the Coastal Plain provinces. (USGS)

South Carolina

Use of an integrated flow model to estimate ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics at stream biomonitoring sites

We developed an integrated hydroecological model to provide a comprehensive set of hydrologic variables representing five major components of the flow regime at 856 aquatic-invertebrate monitoring sites in New Jersey. The hydroecological model simulates streamflow by routing water that moves overland and through the subsurface from atmospheric delivery to the watershed outlet. Snow accumulation and melt, evapotranspiration, precipitation, withdrawals, discharges, pervious- and impervious-area runoff, and lake storage were accounted for in the water balance. We generated more than 78 flow variables, which describe the frequency, magnitude, duration, rate of change, and timing of flow events. Highly correlated variables were filtered by principal component analysis to obtain a non-redundant subset of variables that explain the majority of the variation in the complete set. This subset of variables was used to evaluate the effect of changes in the flow regime on aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure at 856 biomonitoring sites. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to evaluate variation in aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure across a disturbance gradient. We employed multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to build a series of MLR models that identify the most important environmental and hydrologic variables driving the differences in the aquatic-invertebrate assemblages across the disturbance gradient. The first axis of NMS ordination was significantly related to many hydrologic, habitat, and land-use/land-cover variables, including the average number of annual storms producing runoff, ratio of 25-75% exceedance flow (flashiness), diversity of natural stream substrate, and the percentage of forested land near the stream channel (forest buffer). Modifications in the hydrologic regime as the result of changes in watershed land use appear to promote the retention of highly tolerant aquatic species; in contrast, species that are sensitive to hydrologic instability and other anthropogenic disturbance become much less prevalent. We also found strong relations between an index of invertebrate-assemblage impairment, its component metrics, and the primary disturbance gradient. The process-oriented watershed modeling approach used in this study provides a means to evaluate how natural landscape features interact with anthropogenic factors and assess their effects on flow characteristics and stream ecology. By combining watershed modeling and indirect ordination techniques, we were able to identify components of the hydrologic regime that have a considerable effect on aquatic-assemblage structure and help in developing short- and long-term management measures that mitigate the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in stream systems.

New Jersey

Water-quality constituent concentrations and loads computed using real-time water-quality data for the Republican River, Clay Center, Kansas, August 2018 through July 2023

Milford Lake, the largest reservoir by surface area in Kansas, has had confirmed harmful algal blooms every summer since reporting began in 2011, except 2018–19. Milford Lake has been listed as impaired and designated hypereutrophic under section 303(d) of the 1972 Clean Water Act. In 2014, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment established a total maximum daily load for eutrophication and dissolved oxygen impairments. In 2018, the Natural Resources Conservation Service funded the Regional Conservation Partnership Program for the Milford Lake Watershed to focus on best management practices in the Lower Republican River Basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Water Office, completed this study to assess and quantify water-quality constituent concentrations and loads for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended sediment (SS) using previously published models for the Republican River near Clay Center, Kansas (U.S. Geological Survey station 06856600), about 15 miles upstream from Milford Lake, during August 1, 2018, through July 31, 2023. TN, TP, and SS concentrations and loads were monitored because of their relation to water supply and water-quality issues in Milford Lake, including nutrient and sediment transport, taste-and-odor events, potentially toxic cyano-harmful algal bloom events, and subsequent downstream transport of contaminants. Data from this report can be used to evaluate changing conditions, provide science-based information for decision making, and help meet regulatory requirements. The study mean annual loads for TN and TP were greater than the reported mean annual total maximum daily load and exceeded the watershed reduction goals as well as Kansas nonpoint source reduction goals defined by the Watershed Restoration and Protection Strategy for the Lower Republican watershed. TN and TP annual loads during 2019–20 were greater than the defined mean annual total maximum daily load. During 2022, TN and TP annual loads were less than the Kansas nonpoint source reduction goal and during 2023 were less than the watershed reduction goal. SS loads were less than the mean annual sedimentation rate computed from the total maximum daily load for the entirety of the study period, and the study mean annual load was 72 percent less than the designed annual reservoir sedimentation rate for Milford Lake. Data collected during the study period represented a wide range of streamflow and water-quality conditions at the Clay Center site, ranging from low-flow with less frequent runoff during 2023 to high-flow with frequent runoff during 2018. Nutrient reduction goals were only met in the final 2 years of the study period when annual mean flow conditions were lower than normal, indicating that goals may be unattainable during average or high-flow conditions. In all years except 2019, the annual mean SS load was less than the 20-year sediment load reduction target. Although annual SS loads at the Clay Center site generally decreased over time, corresponding reductions in annual streamflow indicated that these reductions may primarily be related to less frequent runoff from the upstream basin. Continued water-quality monitoring and tracking of best management practices are necessary to understand the success of Regional Conservation Partnership Program efforts to reduce nutrient transport in the Milford Lake Watershed.

Kansas

Hydrogeologic characterization of Area B, Fort Detrick, Maryland

Groundwater in the karst groundwater system at Area B of Fort Detrick in Frederick County, Maryland, is contaminated with chlorinated solvents from the past disposal of laboratory wastes. In cooperation with U.S. Army Environmental Command and U.S. Army Garrison Fort Detrick, the U.S. Geological Survey performed a 3-year study to refine the conceptual model of groundwater flow in and around Area B of Fort Detrick at the site- to regional-scale. The investigation was designed to review the geologic setting, assess the temporal variability of the hydrologic system, evaluate the potential for interbasin groundwater flow, determine the degree of vertical connectivity of the aquifer, characterize the sources and timing of groundwater recharge, and identify if dyes from previous tracer tests continue to drain from the aquifer. This study established a continuous hydrologic monitoring network of 12 water level gages, 2 streamgages, a precipitation gage, and in situ fluorometric monitoring. A water budget analysis was performed using hydrologic monitoring data and a soil-water balance model constructed for the study. In this study each individual water budget term is calculated using available data or through modeling, and a water budget residual term is calculated. If the water budget residual term is small relative to the uncertainty of the underlying data, then an additional import or export of water (in other words, interbasin transfer) is not needed to fully describe the hydrologic system. Groundwater and spring samples from 20 locations were collected in a 2019 synoptic geochemical sampling event and analyzed for a suite of analytes that included groundwater age tracer constituents. The karst groundwater system was found to be highly responsive to hydrologic events, with strong water level and stream base flow responses to individual storm events and a historic wet period in 2017 and 2018. The water budget analysis included historic flooding in May 2018, though more typical hydrologic patterns were observed in 2019 and 2020. During most evaluated intervals, the water budget residual was less than the estimated uncertainty on the residual for the two Carroll Creek watersheds, which suggested no substantial net interbasin flow occurs from these watersheds. The watershed difference area, a region that includes Area B, had a significant negative water budget residual, which may be the result of a net interbasin import of groundwater or the result of focused groundwater recharge not simulated by the soil-water balance model. Geochemical analysis and groundwater age dating reveals shallow groundwater (approximately less than [<] 150 feet deep) appears to be relatively young (approximately <30 years) and to be recharged in the vicinity of Area B. In the deep groundwater sampled in this study (approximately greater than [>] 150 feet deep), older groundwater from a differing recharge source, based on stable isotopes and noble gas analyses, is observed and interpreted to represent less direct connectivity to the surface and increased proportions of water recharged to the north and (or) west of Area B. A clustering analysis to reveal groupings within the suite of geochemical data was used to define seven groups. The groupings generally show that wells in similar depths and lateral aquifer positions generally cluster together, with some exceptions. Although limited by suspended sediments, the in situ fluorometric monitoring at springs did not detect any dye leaving the system above the limit of detection for the method. Dye was only detected above the limit of detection in one well, which was used as an injection well during a previous dye tracer test. The results of this study support and refine the conceptual site model of groundwater hydrology at Area B. The geologic and geophysical log review in this study agrees with prior assessments of physical controls on groundwater flow. A literature review of mid-Atlantic karst studies identified similar controls reported in these environments. The additional characterization of hydrologic responsiveness in this study suggests that hydrologic conditions and events are important considerations when interpreting potentiometric surfaces and contaminant trends over time and highlights the importance of continuous hydrologic monitoring. There is evidence to suggest that either intense focused groundwater recharge occurs in the vicinity of Area B or net along-valley groundwater interbasin flow from the upper study watershed enters the lower watershed and discharges to Carroll Creek. Geochemical analyses also suggest that water recharged from Catoctin Mountain and the elevated areas to the north and (or) west of the site may be present in the older and deeper Area B groundwater.

Maryland

A Geochemical Mass-Balance Method for Base-Flow Separation, Upper Hillsborough River Watershed, West-Central Florida, 2003-2005 and 2009

Geochemical mass-balance (GMB) and conductivity mass-balance (CMB) methods for hydrograph separation were used to determine the contribution of base flow to total stormflow at two sites in the upper Hillsborough River watershed in west-central Florida from 2003-2005 and at one site in 2009. The chemical and isotopic composition of streamflow and precipitation was measured during selected local and frontal low- and high-intensity storm events and compared to the geochemical and isotopic composition of groundwater. Input for the GMB method included cation, anion, and stable isotope concentrations of surface water and groundwater, whereas input for the CMB method included continuous or point-sample measurement of specific conductance. The surface water is a calcium-bicarbonate type water, which closely resembles groundwater geochemically, indicating that much of the surface water in the upper Hillsborough River basin is derived from local groundwater discharge. This discharge into the Hillsborough River at State Road 39 and at Hillsborough River State Park becomes diluted by precipitation and runoff during the wet season, but retains the calcium-bicarbonate characteristics of Upper Floridan aquifer water. Field conditions limited the application of the GMB method to low-intensity storms but the CMB method was applied to both low-intensity and high-intensity storms. The average contribution of base flow to total discharge for all storms ranged from 31 to 100 percent, whereas the contribution of base flow to total discharge during peak discharge periods ranged from less than 10 percent to 100 percent. Although calcium, magnesium, and silica were consistent markers of Upper Floridan aquifer chemistry, their use in calculating base flow by the GMB method was limited because the frequency of point data collected in this study was not sufficient to capture the complete hydrograph from pre-event base-flow to post-event base-flow concentrations. In this study, pre-event water represented somewhat diluted groundwater. Streamflow conductivity integrates the concentrations of the major ions, and the logistics of acquiring specific conductance at frequent time intervals are less complicated than data collection, sample processing, shipment, and analysis of water samples in a laboratory. The acquisition of continuous specific conductance data reduces uncertainty associated with less-frequently collected geochemical point data.

Scientific Investigations Report

A watershed moment for western U.S. dams

The summer of 2023 is a notable time for water-resource management in the western United States: Glen Canyon Dam, on the Colorado River, turns 60 years old while the largest dam-removal project in history is beginning on the Klamath River. This commentary discusses these events in the context of a changing paradigm for dam and reservoir management in this region. Since the era of large dam building began to wane six decades ago, new challenges have arisen for dam and reservoir management owing to climate change, population increase, reservoir sedimentation, declining safety of aging dams, and more environmentally focused management objectives. Today we also better understand dams' benefits, costs, and environmental impacts, including some that were unforeseen and took decades to become apparent. Where dams have become unsafe, obsolete (e.g., due to excessive reservoir sedimentation), and uneconomical beyond saving, dam removal has become common. The science and practice of dam removal are accelerating rapidly, and some long-term physical and biological response studies are now available. Removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River will be a larger and more complex project than any previous dam removal. The imminency of this project reflects a very different situation for dam and reservoir management than 60 years ago. Looking forward, dam and reservoir management in the western United States and worldwide will require continued collaboration and innovative thinking to meet a wide range of objectives and to manage water resources sustainably for future generations.

Water Resources Research

Review of harmful algal blooms effects on birds with implications for avian wildlife in the Chesapeake Bay region

The Chesapeake Bay, along the mid-Atlantic coast of North America, is the largest estuary in the United States and provides critical habitat for wildlife. In contrast to point and non-point source release of pesticides, metals, and industrial, personal care and household use chemicals on biota in this watershed, there has only been scant attention to potential exposure and effects of algal toxins on wildlife in the Chesapeake Bay region. As background, we first review the scientific literature on algal toxins and harmful algal bloom (HAB) events in various regions of the world that principally affected birds, and to a lesser degree other wildlife. To examine the situation for the Chesapeake, we compiled information from government reports and databases summarizing wildlife mortality events for 2000 through 2020 that were associated with potentially toxic algae and HAB events. Summary findings indicate that there have been few wildlife mortality incidents definitively linked to HABs, other mortality events that were suspected to be related to HABs, and more instances in which HABs may have indirectly contributed to or occurred coincident with wildlife mortality. The dominant toxins found in the Chesapeake Bay drainage that could potentially affect wildlife are microcystins, with concentrations in water approaching or exceeding human-based thresholds for ceasing recreational use and drinking water at a number of locations. As an increasing trend in HAB events in the U.S. and in the Chesapeake Bay have been reported, additional information on HAB toxin exposure routes, comparative sensitivity among species, consequences of sublethal exposure, and better diagnostic and risk criteria would greatly assist in predicting algal toxin hazard and risks to wildlife.

Maryland, Virginia

Tracing sources of nitrate in snowmelt runoff using a high-resolution isotopic technique

The denitrifier method to determine the dual isotopic composition (??15N and ??18O) of nitrate is well suited for studies of nitrogen contributions to streams during runoff events. This method requires only 70 nmol of NO3- and enables high throughput of samples. We studied nitrate sources to a headwater stream during snowmelt by generating a high-temporal resolution dataset at the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, USA. In the earliest phase of runoff, stream NO3- concentrations were highest and stream discharge, NO3- concentrations, and ??18O of NO 3- generally tracked one another during diurnal melting. The isotopic composition of stream NO3- varied in-between atmospheric and groundwater NO 3- end members indicating a direct contribution of atmospherically-derived NO3- from the snow pack to the stream. During the middle to late phases of snowmelt, the source shifted toward soil NO3- entering the stream via shallow subsurface flow paths. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters

Analysis and mapping of post-fire hydrologic hazards for the 2002 Hayman, Coal Seam, and Missionary Ridge wildfires, Colorado

Wildfires caused extreme changes in the hydrologic, hydraulic, and geomorphologic characteristics of many Colorado drainage basins in the summer of 2002. Detailed assessments were made of the short-term effects of three wildfires on burned and adjacent unburned parts of drainage basins. These were the Hayman, Coal Seam, and Missionary Ridge wildfires. Longer term runoff characteristics that reflect post-fire drainage basin recovery expected to develop over a period of several years also were analyzed for two affected stream reaches: the South Platte River between Deckers and Trumbull, and Mitchell Creek in Glenwood Springs. The 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood-plain boundaries and water-surface profiles were computed in a detailed hydraulic study of the Deckers-to-Trumbull reach. The Hayman wildfire burned approximately 138,000 acres (216 square miles) in granitic terrain near Denver, and the predominant potential hazard in this area is flooding by sediment-laden water along the large tributaries to and the main stem of the South Platte River. The Coal Seam wildfire burned approximately 12,200 acres (19.1 square miles) near Glenwood Springs, and the Missionary Ridge wildfire burned approximately 70,500 acres (110 square miles) near Durango, both in areas underlain by marine shales where the predominant potential hazard is debris-flow inundation of low-lying areas. Hydrographs and peak discharges for pre-burn and post-burn scenarios were computed for each drainage basin and tributary subbasin by using rainfall-runoff models because streamflow data for most tributary subbasins were not available. An objective rainfall-runoff model calibration method based on nonlinear regression and referred to as the ?objective calibration method? was developed and applied to rainfall-runoff models for three burned areas. The HEC-1 rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate the pre-burn rainfall-runoff processes in response to the 100-year storm, and HEC-HMS was used for runoff hydrograph generation. Post-burn rainfall-runoff parameters were determined by adjusting the runoff-curve numbers on the basis of a weighting procedure derived from the U.S. Soil Conservation Service (now the National Resources Conservation Service) equation for precipitation excess and the effect of burn severity. This weighting procedure was determined to be more appropriate than simple area weighting because of the potentially marked effect of even small burned areas on the runoff hydrograph in individual drainage basins. Computed water-peak discharges from HEC-HMS models were increased volumetrically to account for increased sediment concentrations that are expected as a result of accelerated erosion after burning. Peak discharge estimates for potential floods in the South Platte River were increased by a factor that assumed a volumetric sediment concentration (Cv) of 20 percent. Flood hydrographs for the South Platte River and Mitchell Creek were routed down main-stem channels using watershed-routing algorithms included in the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model. In areas subject to debris flows in the Coal Seam and Missionary Ridge burned areas, debris-flow discharges were simulated by 100-year rainfall events, and the inflow hydrographs at tributary mouths were simulated by using the objective calibration method. Sediment concentrations (Cv) used in debris-flow simulations were varied through the event, and were initial Cv 20 percent, mean Cv approximately 31 percent, maximum Cv 48 percent, Cv 43 percent at the time of the water hydrograph peak, and Cv 20 percent for the duration of the event. The FLO-2D flood- and debris-flow routing model was used to delineate the area of unconfined debris-flow inundation on selected alluvial fan and valley floor areas. A method was developed to objectively determine the post-fire recovery period for the Hayman and Coal Seam burned areas using runoff-curve numbers (RCN) for all drainage basins for a 50-year period. A

Scientific Investigations Report

Spatial and temporal variation of stream chemistry associated with contrasting geology and land-use patterns in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—Summary of results from Smith Creek, Virginia; Upper Chester River, Maryland; Conewago Creek, Pennsylvania; and Difficult Run, Virginia, 2010–2013

Despite widespread and ongoing implementation of conservation practices throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, water quality continues to be degraded by excess sediment and nutrient inputs. While the Chesapeake Bay Program has developed and maintains a large-scale and long-term monitoring network to detect improvements in water quality throughout the watershed, fewer resources have been allocated for monitoring smaller watersheds, even though water-quality improvements that may result from the implementation of conservation practices are likely to be first detected at smaller watershed scales. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate water-quality monitoring in four selected small watersheds that were targeted for increased implementation of conservation practices. Smith Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia that is dominated by cattle and poultry production, and the Upper Chester River watershed is an agricultural watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland that is dominated by row-cropping activities. The Conewago Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania that is characterized by mixed agricultural activities. The fourth watershed, Difficult Run, is a suburban watershed in northern Virginia that is dominated by medium density residential development. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry and suspended sediment in these four relatively small watersheds that represent a range of land-use patterns and underlying geology to (1) characterize current water-quality conditions in these watersheds, and (2) identify the dominant sources, sinks, and transport processes in each watershed. The general study design involved two components. The first included intensive routine water-quality monitoring at an existing streamgage within each study area (including continuous water-quality monitoring as well as discrete water-quality sampling) to develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and hydrologic variability in stream chemistry and sediment transport in each watershed. The second component involved extensive water-quality monitoring at various sites throughout each watershed to develop a detailed understanding of spatial patterns. Both components were used to improve understanding of sources and transport processes affecting stream chemistry, including nutrients and suspended sediments, and their implications for detecting long-term trends related to best management practices. This report summarizes the results of monitoring that was performed from April 2010 through September 2013. Individual Small Watershed Summaries Summaries for each of the four small watersheds are presented below. Each watershed has a more descriptive and detailed section in the report, but these summaries may be particularly useful for some watershed managers and stakeholders desiring slightly less technical detail. Smith Creek Smith Creek is a 105.39-mi 2 watershed within the Shenandoah Valley that drains to the North Fork Shenandoah River. The long-term Smith Creek base-flow index is 72.3 percent, indicating that on average, approximately 72 percent of Smith Creek flow was base flow, which suggests that Smith Creek streamflow is dominated by groundwater discharge rather than stormwater runoff. A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in Smith Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, suspended sediments, total nitrogen, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, total phosphorus, and the ratio of calcium to magnesium. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for specific conductance, magnesium, δ 15 N of nitrate, pH, bicarbonate, calcium, and δ 18 O of nitrate. Of particular note, flow and nitrate were not statistically significantly correlated, likely because of the relatively complex concentration-discharge relationship observed in continuous and discrete datasets. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended-sediment concentration, and silica were higher during the warm season, but pH, dissolved oxygen, and sulfate were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loads in Smith Creek using the continuous water-quality monitors. The mean Smith Creek in-stream sediment load was approximately 6,900 tons per year, with nearly 90 percent of the sediment load over the 3-year study period contributed during the eight largest storm events during that period. The Smith Creek total phosphorus load was approximately 21,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods, although a substantial phosphorus load still occurs during base-flow conditions. The Smith Creek total nitrogen load was approximately 400,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions (as was the case for sediment and total phosphorus) and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Smith Creek watershed revealed how the complex geology and hydrology interacted to result in variable water chemistry. During relatively dry and low base-flow periods, much of the discharge in Smith Creek was contributed by a single dominant spring—Lacey Spring. During wetter base-flow periods, the flows in Smith Creek were largely generated by a mixture of headwater springs and forested mountain tributaries with very different geochemical composition. The headwater springs generally issued from limestone bedrock and were characterized as having relatively high nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The undeveloped, high-gradient, forested mountain sites were generally characterized by low ionic strength waters with low nutrient concentrations. Nitrate isotope data from the limestone springs generally were consistent with manure-derived nitrogen sources (such as cattle and poultry), although the possibility of other mixed sources cannot be excluded. Nitrate isotope data from the undeveloped, high-gradient forested mountain sites were more consistent with nitrogen from undisturbed soils, atmospheric deposition, or nitrogen fixation. Regardless of the nitrogen source, oxygen isotope data indicate that the nitrate was largely a result of nitrification. Land-use data indicate that manure sources of nitrogen dominated watershed nitrogen inputs. Phosphorus sources were less well studied. The presence of a single point-source discharge near the town of New Market contributed the majority of the phosphorus to Smith Creek under base-flow conditions, but nonpoint sources of phosphorus dominated the loading to Smith Creek during stormflow periods. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Smith Creek watershed during the study period, and even though a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream fencing (for cattle exclusion), the development of nutrient management plans, conservation crop rotation, and the planting of cover crops. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, results indicate small increases in nitrate concentrations at the streamgage over the last 29 years, concurrent with small decreases in nitrate fluxes. It will likely be years before the cumulative effect of these practices can be detected in the Smith Creek water quality, and the magnitude of the effect of these conservation practices detected in Smith Creek will depend largely on whether nutrient loading (of manure and commercial fertilizer) is reduced over time. Upper Chester River The Upper Chester River watershed includes the 36-square-mile (mi 2 ) watershed area around several nontidal tributaries that drain into the tidal Chester River. The streamgage is on Chesterville Branch, the largest nontidal tributary (approximately 6.12 mi 2 ) and is the site for continuous water-quality monitoring for this project. The base-flow index at Chesterville Branch is about 72 percent and indicates that, as in most of the Coastal Plain, groundwater is the greatest contributor to streamflow. As such, more than 90 percent of the nitrogen in the stream is in the form of nitrate from groundwater. Continuous and discrete data collected at Chesterville Branch show the effects of streamflow and season on water quality. Significantly positive correlations with flow were observed for ammonium, dissolved and total phosphorus, sediment, and turbidity as runoff carried these constituents from the land surface into Chesterville Branch. Other constituents that increased significantly with flow include potassium, sulfate, iron, and manganese, which are likely contributed from near-stream areas and ponds with high organic-matter content. Total nitrogen, pH, and specific conductance, along with chemical constituents associated with groundwater inputs including nitrate, calcium, ratio of calcium to magnesium, silica, bicarbonate, and sodium, were negatively correlated with flow because concentrations of these constituents were diluted by runoff. Seasonal differences in water chemistry, which are most likely related to increased biologic effects on the uptake and release of chemicals in the stream and near-stream areas, also were observed. Water temperature, orthophosphate, δ 15 N of nitrate, bicarbonate, sodium, and the ratio of sodium to chloride were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, magnesium, sulfate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate-regression models developed by using continuous water-quality data showed that the annual sediment load for the 2013 water year was about 2,600 tons, with more than 90 percent of this sediment contributed during two storms. The total phosphorus load in 2013 was about 13,000 pounds with more than 90 percent contributed during the same two storms as sediment. The load of total nitrogen, 140,000 pounds, accumulated steadily throughout the 2013 water year as nitrate in groundwater continuously discharged into the stream. The same two large storms that contributed 90 percent of the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load only contributed about 20 percent of the annual total nitrogen load. Extensive water-quality monitoring of stream base flow throughout the Upper Chester River watershed identified how differences in land use and hydrogeology affected water chemistry. In parts of the watershed with well-drained soil and thick sandy aquifer sediments, concentrations of nitrate and other chemicals associated with fertilizer and lime application increased in streams as agricultural land use increased. More than 90 percent of the nitrogen in streams from these areas was in the form of nitrate, and concentrations ranged from about 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 8 mg/L as nitrogen in the two largest tributaries. Stream nitrate concentrations were about 1 mg/L as nitrogen where soils were more poorly drained, the surficial aquifer sediments were thinner, and forests and wetlands were more widespread than agriculture. Nitrate isotope data were consistent with inorganic fertilizers ± atmospheric deposition and N 2 fixation as sources of nitrogen, and with nitrification as the dominant nitrate-forming process. Nitrate reduction was indicated by elevated δ 15 N and δ 18 O values in some samples from streams draining watersheds with poorly drained soils. An analysis of land-use data and SPARROW modeling input data attributed almost 90 percent of the nitrogen sources in the Upper Chester River watershed to inorganic fertilizer and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by legumes, which is in agreement with the isotopic characteristics of nitrate in this watershed. Local sources of manure are limited in this area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base flow ranged from below detection to about 0.2 mg/L. Stream phosphorus concentrations during base flow were generally lower than those measured during storms because most phosphorus transport likely occurs as phosphorus attached to sediment particles during runoff. Because manure is not widely used in this area, the major source of phosphorus is likely fertilizer. The implementation of conservation practices in the Upper Chester River watershed increased substantially during the study period, with a total implementation of 1,194 U.S. Department of Agriculture-compliant practices. The most frequently used practices were oriented towards nutrient and sediment control, including cover crops, nutrient management planning, conservation crop rotation, conservation tillage, and irrigation management. The current Chesapeake Bay model for this area predicts that implementation of best management practices should result in a 13-percent decrease in overall delivery of nitrogen to the Upper Chester River. Because most nitrogen travels through the groundwater system for years to decades before being discharged to streams, the time period of monitoring was not sufficient to see the effects of these practices on water quality. The magnitude of the effect that may eventually be detected will depend on the degree to which nitrate leaching into the groundwater system is reduced over time. Loadings of phosphorus and sediment are primarily transported during large runoff events and are difficult to control and analyze for trends because of their timing and episodic nature. Conewago Creek Conewago Creek has two primary monitoring locations—one near the middle of the 47-mi 2 watershed and the other near the outlet just upstream of the Susquehanna River. The base-flow index was 47.3 percent for 2012–2013, indicating that on average, approximately 53 percent of the streamflow in Conewago Creek exited the watershed as surface flow, which suggests that the stormwater runoff was somewhat greater than groundwater discharge (base flow). A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in the Conewago Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed at both monitoring sites for ammonium, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese; additionally, at the upstream monitoring station, total nitrogen demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation with flow. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed at both sites for water temperature, specific conductance (at the downstream site only), sulfate, chloride, calcium, and magnesium. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for several water-quality constituents. Water temperature, phosphorus (upstream site only), and orthophosphate were higher during the warm season, and nitrate and total nitrogen (upstream site only) were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient load in Conewago Creek by using the continuous water-quality monitors and water-quality samples. Conewago Creek sediment load was approximately 9,900 tons in 2012 and approximately 18,900 tons in 2013, with nearly 80 percent of the sediment load in 2013 contributed by the three largest storm events. Annual total nitrogen loads could not be estimated due to poor model performance. The addition of continued monitoring or a continuously recording nitrate sensor could improve estimates of total nitrogen loads. During 2012 and 2013, phosphorus loads in Conewago Creek were approximately 50,000 pounds in each year. Combining data from one high-flow synoptic sampling with the data from routine sampling revealed how the geology and hydrology interact to result in variable water chemistry throughout the Conewago Creek watershed. The areas above the upstream gage in the headwaters are generally underlain by forested non-carbonate bedrock and are characterized by relatively low nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The more developed, agricultural areas below the upstream site were generally characterized by higher ionic strength waters with higher nutrient and metal concentrations. An analysis of land-use data and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) modeling data indicates that manure sources of nitrogen dominate the input of nitrogen to the watershed. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Conewago Creek watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types were implemented, the most common practices included residue and tillage management, cover crops, nutrient management, terracing, and stream fencing (for animal exclusion or bank restoration). While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effects of these practices probably will not be detected in Conewago Creek water quality for several years. The magnitude of the effects of these conservation practices on water quality in Conewago Creek will depend largely on the extent to which nutrient loading (septic, manure, and commercial fertilizer) and sediment-producing activities are reduced over time. Difficult Run The Difficult Run watershed is a 57.82-mi 2 watershed that drains to the Potomac River. The long-term Difficult Run base-flow index (from 1936 to 2010) was 57.9, indicating that approximately 58 percent of streamflow exited the watershed as base flow and 42 percent as stormflow; however, with continued development and urbanization of the watershed, the base-flow index has decreased to 50 percent during the last 20 years. This base-flow index was less than those of the other watersheds evaluated in this study, likely because the Difficult Run watershed largely is underlain by crystalline piedmont metamorphic rocks and has a greater proportion of impervious urban land cover. A series of cluster and principal components analyses indicated that most of the variability in Difficult Run water quality could be attributed to hydrologic variability and seasonality. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediments, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, and total phosphorus. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for water temperature, pH, specific conductance, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, δ 15 N of nitrate, and silica. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, ammonium, orthophosphate, and δ 15 N of nitrate were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loading rates. The Difficult Run sediment load was approximately 8,000 tons per year, with greater than 95 percent of the sediment load in the 2013 water year contributed by the seven largest storm events. The total phosphorus load in Difficult Run was approximately 14,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods. The total nitrogen load in Difficult Run is estimated to have been approximately 140,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions than that of phosphorus and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Difficult Run watershed revealed relatively uniform generation of flow per unit of watershed area, as well as spatial variation in water quality that is strongly related to land-use activities. Elevated nitrate concentrations were observed in a subset of monitoring sites that are inversely correlated with population density and positively correlated to the septic system density within each subwatershed. The majority of the elevated nitrate concentrations for these sites are hypothesized to be caused by nitrate leaching from septic systems, more so than homeowner fertilizer usage among these subwatersheds that have lower population densities than other parts of the watershed. Nitrate isotope data, temporal patterns in the water-quality data, mass-balance computations, and a separate land-use analysis all generally indicate that leachate from septic systems was the likely source of the elevated nitrate. Another group of water-quality sites have relatively low nitrogen concentrations, are located in areas that are served by city sewer lines, and have experienced stream restoration activities. A final group of sites drained the areas with the highest imperviousness and had strongly elevated specific conductance, chloride, and sodium, which were likely caused by a combination of road salting and other anthropogenic sources draining these urbanized areas in the watershed. A fourth group of sites represents a mixture of water sources and had water quality similar to that at the Difficult Run streamgage. Analysis of the nitrate isotope data generally indicates a broad range of composition indicative of mixed natural and anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Difficult Run watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream restoration. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effect of these practices probably will not be detected in Difficult Run water quality for several years.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia

Nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations, flux, and yields in the Galena River, Illinois, 2019–21

Two stations on the Galena River in Illinois were monitored for nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment from 2019 to 2021 to determine physiochemical properties and constituent concentrations, flux, and yields. This information could aide in the management and understanding of the Galena River and the contributions from the intervening 58-square-mile study area watershed. Constituent concentrations were characteristic for contemporary midwestern agricultural watersheds and did not display any notable high or low values. Concentrations of nitrogen were generally higher at the upstream station, whereas concentrations of phosphorus and suspended sediment were generally higher at the downstream station. Decreases in nutrient concentrations were observed at both stations during the study period, but there was no appreciable pattern in suspended-sediment concentrations. Constituent fluxes, particularly nitrogen, were higher at the downstream station, whereas fluxes of phosphorus and suspended sediment were higher at the upstream station during several high-flow events, indicating substantial contribution of particulate material upstream from the study area and potential sequestration within the study area reach of the Galena River. For all constituents, yields were typically higher at the upstream station during periods of increased streamflow and lower at the upstream station during periods of reduced streamflow. These data indicate that the constituent contributions are greater from within the study area than from the watershed upstream from the study area during periods of normal to low streamflow.

Illinois

Supply and dispersal of flood sediment from a steep, tropical watershed: Hanalei Bay, Kauai, Hawaii, USA

In contrast to many small, mountainous watersheds in temperate coastal regions, where fluvial discharge and wave energy commonly coincide, deposition and reworking of tropical flood sediment can be seasonally decoupled, and this has important implications for coral-reef ecosystems. An understanding of the interaction between tropical flood sedimentation and wave climate is essential to identifying and mitigating effects of watershed changes on coral reefs as urbanization and climate change proceed. Sedimentary facies and isotopic properties of sediment in Hanalei Bay, on the island of Kaua'i, Hawai'i, USA, were used to assess deposition and reworking of flood deposits from the Hanalei River in a case study demonstrating the potential ecosystem effects of runoff from a steep, tropical watershed. In Hanalei Bay, the youngest and thickest terrigenous sediment was consistently present near the river mouth and in a bathymetric depression that acted as at least a temporary sediment sink. During this 2 yr study, the largest flood events occurred in late winter and spring 2006; substantial terrestrial sediment delivered by those floods still remained in the bay as of June 2006 because oceanic conditions were not sufficiently energetic to transport all of the sediment offshore. Additional sediment was deposited in the bay by a summer 2006 flood that coincided with seasonal low wave energy. In most years, flood sediment accumulating in the bay and on its fringing reefs would be remobilized and advected out of the bay during winter, when the wave climate is energetic. Turbidity and sedimentation on corals resulting from late spring and summer floods during low wave energy could have a greater impact on coral-reef ecosystems than floods in other seasons, an effect that could be exacerbated if the incidence and sediment load of tropical summer floods increase due to urbanization and climate change.

Hawaii

Hydrology and climate of four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico: Chapter C in Water quality and landscape processes of four watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico lies directly in the path of the easterly trade winds, which deliver steady rainfall to the mountains and steer tropical wave systems toward the island. Hurricanes and tropical storms derived from these tropical waves differ in frequency and intensity, contributing to substantial interannual variation in precipitation and stream discharge. Puerto Rico's steep topography and small water-storage capacity leave the island's water supply and developed flood plains vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts. This vulnerability may increase in the future owing to ongoing change, both local (such as land-cover shifts, water-supply projects, and construction of roads and other infrastructure) and regional (climate variability and change). Climate change, which could lead to more intense and prolonged droughts as well as an increase in the magnitude and frequency of destructive storms in the Caribbean, may alter temperature and affect the availability of water for human and ecosystem needs. Accurate assessment of hydrologic regimes and water budgets is therefore crucial for effective management of water resources. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program, hydrologic and geomorphologic processes and stream chemistry of four small watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico, which differ in geology and land cover, have been studied since 1991. Spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation and stream discharge, along with water budgets, were determined for the watersheds for the period 1991 to 2005. The locations of the watersheds relative to the Luquillo Mountains and the range's associated rain shadow dominate hydrological processes, dwarfing influences of land cover. The influence of geology is reflected in recession characteristics of the rivers (recession is faster in soils overlying volcaniclastic bedrock) and in hillslope geomorphic processes (sediment is delivered at higher rates from soils overlying granitic bedrock).

Professional Paper