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Developing an outcome-based biodiversity metric in support of the field to market project: Final report

Our objective was to create a metric that would calculate the relative impact of common commercial agricultural practices on terrestrial vertebrate richness. We sought to define impacts in fields (including field borders) of the southeastern region’s commercial production of corn, wheat, soy, and cotton. The metric is intended to serve as an educational tool, allowing producers to see how operational decisions made at the field level impact overall vertebrate species richness and to explore decision impacts to targeted species groups (e.g. game, pest, or beneficial species). Agricultural landscapes are often mistakenly thought to be unsuitable habitat for most species. However, as demonstrated by results reported here, even large-scale, conventional agricultural producers are potentially important partners in biodiversity conservation. Many vertebrate species do inhabit agricultural landscapes, benefitting from the provision of water, food, or shelter within cultivated fields and their immediate borders (e.g., Holland et al. 2012). In the Southeastern US, of the 613 terrestrial vertebrate species modeled by the Southeast Gap Analysis Program (SEGAP) (http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/segap/index.html), 263 utilize row crop and associated agricultural land cover classes as potential habitat (Box 1). While some species may be sensitive to certain operational practices (e.g., tillage, pest management, or field border management practices), others are generally tolerant, and some may benefit either directly or indirectly. For example, field margins and ditches often serve as semi-natural habitats providing foraging resources and shelter for vertebrates and are shown to positively influence species richness and abundance (Billeter et al. 2007; Herzon & Helenius 2008; Marshall & Moonen 2002; Shore et al. 2005; Weibull et al. 2003; Wuczyńskia et al. 2011). Biodiversity responses are, therefore, complex, as an individual species’ responses to agricultural production practices depends on that animal’s resource specialization, mobility, and life history strategies (Jeanneret et al. 2003a, b; Jennings & Pocock 2009). The knowledge necessary to define the biodiversity contribution of agricultural lands is specialized, dispersed, and nuanced, and thus not readily accessible. Given access to clearly defined biodiversity tradeoffs between alternative agricultural practices, landowners, land managers and farm operators could collectively enhance the conservation and economic value of agricultural landscapes. Therefore, Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture and The Nature Conservancy jointly funded a pilot project to develop a biodiversity metric to integrate into Field to Market’s existing sustainability calculator, The Fieldprint Calculator (http://www. fieldtomarket.org/). Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture is an alliance among producers, agribusinesses, food companies, and conservation organizations seeking to create sustainable outcomes for agriculture. The Fieldprint Calculator supports the Keystone Alliance’s vision to achieve safe, accessible, and nutritious food, fiber and fuel in thriving ecosystems to meet the needs of 9 billion people in 2050. In support of this same vision, our project provides proof-of-concept for an outcome-based biodiversity metric for Field to Market to quantify biodiversity impacts of commercial row crop production on terrestrial vertebrate richness. Little research exists examining the impacts of alternative commercial agricultural practices on overall terrestrial biodiversity (McLaughlin & Mineau 1995). Instead, most studies compare organic versus conventional practices (e.g. Freemark & Kirk 2001; Wickramasinghe et al. 2004), and most studies focus on flora, avian, or invertebrate communities (Jeanneret et al. 2003a; Maes et al. 2008; Pollard & Relton 1970). Therefore, we used an expert-knowledge-based approach to develop a metric that predicts expected impacts to shelter and forage resources, individual species, and overall biodiversity (species richness). This approach is modeled after an ecosystems services concept (WRI 2005), except that we examine services (i.e., resources) provided to vertebrate wildlife rather than service provided to the human population. SEGAP predicts species that are potentially present in an area given landscape-scale habitat availability, configuration, and context (e.g., patch size, proximity to resources, connectivity, potential for disturbance). Based on the prediction of species that may be potentially present, the impacts of management decisions within fields and around their borders can be analyzed based on the impact of those practices to the availability of species’ resources. The final metric provides an index of a producer’s relative impact, but perhaps even more importantly, the underlying database allows producers to explore details such as which species are most impacted or how alternative decisions would impact their score.

Technical Bulletin

Wetlands

During the last decades, soil organic carbon (SOC) attracted the attention of a much wider array of specialists beyond agriculture and soil science, as it was proven to be one of the most crucial components of the earth’s climate system, which has a great potential to be managed by humans. Soils as a carbon pool are one of the key factors in several Sustainable Development Goals, in particular Goal 15, “Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss” with the SOC stock being explicitly cited in Indicator 15.3.1. This technical manual is the first attempt to gather, in a standardized format, the existing data on the impacts of the main soil management practices on SOC content in a wide array of environments, including the advantages, drawbacks, and constraints. This manual presents different sustainable soil management (SSM) practices at different scales and in different contexts, supported by case studies that have been shown with quantitative data to have a positive effect on SOC stocks and successful experiences of SOC sequestration in practical field applications Volume 2 includes a description of hot spots of SOC stocks. This manual defines hot spots of SOC as areas that represent a proportionally little of the global land surface but on which SOC storage is highly effective; bright spots as large land areas with low SOC stocks per km2 that represent a potential for further carbon sequestration.

Report

Finding a GEM: The Grassland Effectiveness Monitoring (GEM) protocol provides a tiered approach for habitat treatment assessment across private lands incentive programs

The soil store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through different processes, depending on the use and management of the land. For the Maderas del Carmen and Ocampo natural protected areas, one of the main conservation goals is to preserve natural habitats, ensuring an ecological balance and making a sustainable. The main productive activity in the region is extensive livestock. Different strategies have been explored for producers to modify their practices to ensure sustainable management. In this study, we established the baseline of sustainable management indicators according to the sustainable management protocol. Soils showed a low activity and low C with a high bulk density. Establishing this baseline will allow a starting point for a long-term evaluation different from those traditionally used when evaluating the productivity of the rangeland.

Conference Paper

A science of integration: frameworks, processes, and products in a place-based, integrative study

Integrative research is increasingly a priority within the scientific community and is a central goal for the evolving field of sustainability science. While it is conceptually attractive, its successful implementation has been challenging and recent work suggests that the move towards interdisciplinarity and transdisciplinarity in sustainability science is being only partially realized. To address this from the perspective of social-ecological systems (SES) research, we examine the process of conducting a science of integration within the Southcentral Alaska Test Case (SCTC) of Alaska-EPSCoR as a test-bed for this approach. The SCTC is part of a large, 5 year, interdisciplinary study investigating changing environments and adaptations to those changes in Alaska. In this paper, we review progress toward a science of integration and present our efforts to confront the practical issues of applying proposed integration frameworks. We: (1) define our integration framework; (2) describe the collaborative processes, including the co-development of science through stakeholder engagement and partnerships; and (3) illustrate potential products of integrative, social-ecological systems research. The approaches we use can also be applied outside of this particular framework. We highlight challenges and propose improvements for integration in sustainability science by addressing the need for common frameworks and improved contextual understanding. These insights may be useful for capacity-building for interdisciplinary projects that address complex real-world social and environmental problems.

Sustainability Science

Rowing in the same direction using MIX— A tool to initiate the melding of individual disciplinary experts into an integrated interdisciplinary team

A common problem for interdisciplinary sustainability research is that scientists trained in different disciplines are often not rowing their boat effectively in the same direction. Sustainability tools can aid the implementation of this team-melding process. Here, our purpose is to illustrate our M ulti-step I ntegrated graphical and structured discussion e X ercise ( MIX ) tool that transforms diverse disciplinary experts into an interdisciplinary team. We use a visual puzzle-solving approach based on the blind men and the elephant metaphor (BMEM) because this story illustrates the shortcomings of siloed viewpoints and the need to integrate multiple perspectives. Our six-step MIX tool provides step-specific objectives, group activities, discussion questions, and learning outcomes. Activities promote experiential learning for team problem solving. The step-specific structured discussions are designed to get each individual to change their focus from their own discipline (i.e., an elephant trunk, tail, leg, or other isolated pieces of the whole animal) to the team’s interdisciplinary goal (i.e., the whole elephant or the entire multi-faceted problem). In our example proof of concept, we show that a narrow focus on only economic yield (trunk), ecological conservation (legs), or human values (tail) misrepresents the biologically involved sustainability problem (elephant) and blocks innovative solutions.

Sustainability

Roseate Tern breeding dispersal and fidelity: Responses to two newly restored colony sites

We used 22 yr of capture–mark–reencounter (CMR) data collected from 1988 to 2009 on about 12,500 birds at what went from three to five coastal colony sites in Massachusetts, New York, and Connecticut, United States, to examine spatial and temporal variation in breeding dispersal/fidelity rates of adult Roseate Terns ( Sterna dougallii ). At the start of our study, Roseate Terns nested at only one site (Bird Island) in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, but two more sites in this bay (Ram and Penikese Islands) were subsequently recolonized and became incorporated into our CMR metapopulation study. We examined four major hypotheses about factors we thought might influence colony-site fidelity and movement rates in the restructured system. We found some evidence that colony-site fidelity remained higher at long-established sites compared with newer ones and that breeding dispersal was more likely to occur among nearby sites than distant ones. Sustained predation at Falkner Island, Connecticut, did not result in a sustained drop in fidelity rates of breeders. Patterns of breeding dispersal differed substantially at the two restored sites. The fidelity of Roseate Terns at Bird dropped quickly after nearby Ram was recolonized in 1994, and fidelity rates for Ram soon approached those for Bird. After an oil spill in Buzzards Bay in April 2003, hazing (deliberate disturbance) of the terns at Ram prior to the start of egg-laying resulted in lowering of fidelity at this site, a decrease in immigration from Bird, and recolonization of Penikese by Roseate Terns. Annual fidelity rates at Penikese increased somewhat several years after the initial recolonization, but they remained much lower there than at all the other sites throughout the study period. The sustained high annual rates of emigration from Penikese resulted in the eventual failure of the restoration effort there, and in 2013, no Roseate Terns nested at this site.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island

Timber harvest as the predominant disturbance regime in northeastern U.S. forests: Effects of harvest intensification

Harvesting is the leading cause of adult tree mortality in forests of the northeastern United States. While current rates of timber harvest are generally sustainable, there is considerable pressure to increase the contribution of forest biomass to meet renewable energy goals. We estimated current harvest regimes for different forest types and regions across the U.S. states of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine using data from the U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis Program. We implemented the harvest regimes in SORTIE‐ND, an individual‐based model of forest dynamics, and simulated the effects of current harvest regimes and five additional harvest scenarios that varied by harvest frequency and intensity over 150 yr. The best statistical model for the harvest regime described the annual probability of harvest as a function of forest type/region, total plot basal area, and distance to the nearest improved road. Forests were predicted to increase in adult aboveground biomass in all harvest scenarios in all forest type and region combinations. The magnitude of the increase, however, varied dramatically—increasing from 3% to 120% above current landscape averages as harvest frequency and intensity decreased. The variation can be largely explained by the disproportionately high harvest rates estimated for Maine as compared with the rest of the region. Despite steady biomass accumulation across the landscape, stands that exhibited old‐growth characteristics (defined as ≥300 metric tons of biomass/hectare) were rare (8% or less of stands). Intensified harvest regimes had little effect on species composition due to widespread partial harvesting in all scenarios, resulting in dominance by late‐successional species over time. Our analyses indicate that forest biomass can represent a sustainable, if small, component of renewable energy portfolios in the region, although there are tradeoffs between carbon sequestration in forest biomass and sustainable feedstock supply. Integrating harvest regimes into a disturbance theory framework is critical to understanding the dynamics of forested landscapes, especially given the predominance of logging as a disturbance agent and the increasing pressure to meet renewable energy needs.

Ecosphere

Population and harvest dynamics of midcontinent sandhill cranes

Sandhill cranes ( Antigone canadensis ) inhabiting the midcontinent of North America have been hunted since the 1960s under management goals of maintaining abundance, retaining geographic distribution, and maximizing sustainable harvest. Some biologists have raised concerns regarding harvest sustainability because sandhill cranes have lower reproductive rates than other game birds. We summarized demographic information in an age-structured matrix model to better understand population dynamics and harvest. Population indices and recovered harvest since the early 1980s suggest midcontinent sandhill cranes have experienced an average long-term annual growth of 0.9%; meanwhile, harvest has increased 1.8% annually. We found that adult survival and recruitment rates estimated from field data required modest adjustments (1-3%) so that model-derived growth rates matched growth estimated from a long-term survey (0.887 adult survival and 0.199 females per breeding female). Considering 0.9% long-term annual growth, sandhill cranes could be harvested at a rate of 6.6% if harvest was additive to natural mortality (assumed to be 0.05) or 11.3% if harvest and natural mortality was compensatory. Life-history characteristics for long-lived organisms and demographic evidence suggested that hunter harvest was primarily additive. Differential harvest rates of segments of midcontinent sandhill cranes derived from differential exposure to hunting suggested potentially unsustainable harvest for greater sandhill cranes ( A. c. tabida ) from 2 breeding segments. Overall, demographic evidence suggests that the harvest of midcontinent sandhill cranes has been managed sustainably. Monitoring activities that reduce nuisance variation and estimate vital and harvest rates by subspecies would support continued management of sandhill cranes that are of great interest to hunters and bird watchers.

Nebraska

Evidence for the assimilation of ancient glacier organic carbon in a proglacial stream food web

We used natural abundance δ 13 C, δ 15 N, and Δ 14 C to compare trophic linkages between potential carbon sources (leaf litter, epilithic biofilm, and particulate organic matter) and consumers (aquatic macroinvertebrates and fish) in a nonglacial stream and two reaches of the heavily glaciated Herbert River. We tested the hypothesis that proglacial stream food webs are sustained by organic carbon released from glacial ecosystems. Carbon sources and consumers in the nonglacial stream had carbon isotope values that ranged from -30‰ to -25‰ for δ 13 C and from -14‰ to 53‰ for Δ 14 C reflecting a food web sustained mainly on contemporary primary production. In contrast, biofilm in the two glacial stream sites was highly Δ 14 C-depleted (-215‰ to 175‰) relative to the nonglacial stream consistent with the assimilation of ancient glacier organic carbon. IsoSource modeling showed that in upper Herbert River, macroinvertebrates (Δ 14 C = -171‰ to 22‰) and juvenile salmonids (Δ 14 C = −102‰ to 17‰) reflected a feeding history of both biofilm (~ 56%) and leaf litter (~ 40%). We estimate that in upper Herbert River on average 36% of the carbon incorporated into consumer biomass is derived from the glacier ecosystem. Thus, 14 C-depleted glacial organic carbon was likely transferred to higher trophic levels through a feeding history of bacterial uptake of dissolved organic carbon and subsequent consumption of 14 C-depleted biofilm by invertebrates and ultimately fish. Our findings show that the metazoan food web is sustained in part by glacial organic carbon such that future changes in glacial runoff could influence the stability and trophic structure of proglacial aquatic ecosystems.

Limnology and Oceanography

Effects of a temperature rise on melatonin and thyroid hormones during smoltification of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar

Smoltification prepares juvenile Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) for downstream migration. Dramatic changes characterize this crucial event in the salmon’s life cycle, including increased gill Na + /K + -ATPase activity (NKA) and plasma hormone levels. The triggering of smoltification relies on photoperiod and is modulated by temperature. Both provide reliable information, to which fish have adapted for thousands of years, that allows deciphering daily and calendar time. Here we studied the impact of different photoperiod (natural, sustained winter solstice) and temperature (natural, ~ + 4° C) combinations, on gill NKA, plasma free triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxine (T4), and melatonin (MEL; the time-keeping hormone), throughout smoltification. We also studied the impact of temperature history on pineal gland MEL production in vitro. The spring increase in gill NKA was less pronounced in smolts kept under sustained winter photoperiod and/or elevated temperature. Plasma thyroid hormone levels displayed day–night variations, which were affected by elevated temperature, either independently from photoperiod (decrease in T3 levels) or under natural photoperiod exclusively (increase in T4 nocturnal levels). Nocturnal MEL secretion was potentiated by the elevated temperature, which also altered the MEL profile under sustained winter photoperiod. Temperature also affected pineal MEL production in vitro, a response that depended on previous environmental acclimation of the organ. The results support the view that the salmon pineal is a photoperiod and temperature sensor, highlight the complexity of the interaction of these environmental factors on the endocrine system of S. salar , and indicate that climate change might compromise salmon’s time “deciphering” during smoltification, downstream migration and seawater residence.

Journal of Comparative Physiology B: Biochemical,

Long-term suppression of the Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush) population in Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho

A simulation model of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush (Walbaum 1792) population dynamics in Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho, was used to estimate (1) the optimal allocation of effort among gillnet mesh sizes that minimizes abundance in the shortest time; (2) the number of years needed to suppress the population to 90% of peak abundance; and (3) once suppressed, how much effort could be reduced to sustain abundance indefinitely. A density-dependent stochastic simulation model was parameterized from data in 2006–2016, including parameter uncertainty and implementation error. Time to suppression could be reduced by using more large-mesh gillnet than was used during 2007–2016. Continued fishing at the peak level of total gillnetting effort, but using an optimal effort allocation among meshes, would suppress abundance to the target level within 7–13 years. Once suppressed, gillnet effort could be reduced 76–86% (157,000 m, 95% CI 116,000–199,000 m) to sustain abundance at the target level. Our findings suggest that time to suppression of lake trout populations in other systems may be able to be reduced by optimizing gillnet effort allocation among mesh sizes, and that total effort can be greatly reduced to sustain abundance at the reduced level thereafter.

Idaho

Translating stakeholder narratives for participatory modeling in landscape ecology

Context Engaging stakeholders in research is needed for many of the sustainability challenges that landscape ecologists address. Involving stakeholders’ perspectives through narratives in participatory modeling fosters better understanding of the problem and evaluation of the acceptability of tradeoffs and creates buy-in for management actions. However, stakeholder-driven inputs often take the form of complex qualitative descriptions, rather than model-ready numerical or categorical inputs. Objectives Translating narratives into models, model parameters, or scenarios is essential for leveraging stakeholder knowledge and engagement. Drawing from varied experiences to identify lessons learned and pitfalls, we address the practice of translating narratives into models and using those narratives to interpret and communicate results. Methods We drew from seven participatory landscape ecology projects across North America to synthesize lessons for the inclusion of stakeholder narratives in modeling studies. Results We offer 8 lessons as practical guidance for other landscape ecologists to move the science beyond a unilateral focus on ecological systems and to maximize the benefits of landscape sustainability science. Conclusions These lessons are starting points, as real projects are complex, nuanced, and sometimes contradictory. Translating narratives into models is important for addressing complex sustainability challenges; we hope that these starting points are helpful to those foraying into this type of research.

Landscape Ecology

Surface elevation dynamics in a regenerating mangrove forest at Homebush Bay, Australia

Following the dieback of an interior portion of a mangrove forest at Homebush Bay, Australia, surface elevation tables and feldspar marker horizons were installed in the impacted, intermediate and control forest to measure vertical accretion, elevation change, and shallow subsidence. The objectives of the study were to determine current vertical accretion and elevation change rates as a guide to understanding mangrove dieback, ascertain the factors controlling surface elevation change, and investigate the sustainability of the mangrove forest under estimated sea-level rise conditions. The study demonstrates that the influences on surface dynamics are more complex than soil accretion and soil autocompaction alone. During strong vegetative regrowth in the impacted forest, surface elevation increase exceeded vertical accretion apparently as a result of belowground biomass production. In addition, surface elevation in all forest zones was correlated with total monthly rainfall during a severe El Niño event, highlighting the importance of rainfall to groundwater recharge and surface elevation. Surface elevation increase for all zones exceeded the 85-year sea level trend for Sydney Harbour. Since mean sea-level also decreased during the El Niño event, the decrease in surface elevation did not translate to an increase in inundation frequency or influence the sustainability of the mangrove forest. These findings indicate that subsurface soil processes such as organic matter accumulation and groundwater flux can significantly influence mangrove surface elevation, and contribute to the long-term sustainability of mangrove systems under a scenario of rising sea levels.

Homebush Bay

Marshes are the new beaches: Integrating sediment transport into restoration planning

Recent coastal storms and associated recovery efforts have led to increased investment in nature-based coastal protection, including restoration of salt marshes and construction of living shorelines. In particular, many of these efforts focus on increasing vertical elevation through sediment nourishment, where sediment is removed from the tidal channel and placed on the marsh plain, or preventing lateral erosion through shoreline protection. In the USA alone, millions of dollars have been allocated or spent on these coastal protection solutions over the last few decades because of their perceived sustainability and ecologically positive co-benefits including habitat provision and carbon sequestration. These projects would benefit from integration of sediment transport pathways, budgets, and metrics during planning and modeling of restoration outcomes, in order to evaluate sustainability before investment. This is analogous to the decades of experience with coastal management and engineering on the open coast. Salt marshes are geomorphic features that rely partially on external sediment supply to maintain their network of tidal channels, intertidal flats, and marsh plain. Removing sediment from one component of the overall system to nourish another component may be counterproductive, given that the net sediment budget is unchanged. For example, dredging a tidal channel beyond its equilibrium condition will cause it to fill with sediment from the tidal flat or elsewhere in the system. This may cause slumping of the marsh edge, or over-deepening of other sections of the channel to compensate. Similarly, shoreline protection that prevents edge erosion hampers the marsh plain’s ability to accrete on the levee and naturally transgress landward or it starves other components of the system of regularly supplied sediment. A limited vertical or lateral-only perspective, instead of a three-dimensional perspective, during project planning and evaluation may lead to suboptimal decision-making regarding restoration priorities, approaches, and outcomes. I contend that before significant investments are made in marsh restoration through sediment nourishment or shoreline protection, sediment transport measurements and models that consider sediment dynamics should be integrated into the early phases of restoration planning. This will help identify where and under what conditions marsh restoration will most likely be successful and economically justified. Triaging and prioritizing is then possible, which is a sustainable approach for restoration, given the persistent vulnerability of marshes to sea-level rise, storms, and sediment deficits.

Estuaries and Coasts

Life on land needs fresh water (SDG 15)

Terrestrial ecosystems, such as forests, and the inland waters within them, such as bogs, floodplains, lakes, rivers, springs, and wetlands, are foundational for life on earth. They provide critical ecosystem services such as carbon storage and sequestration, clean water, primary production, pollination, soil fertility, and erosion control. The human footprint on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems continues to expand, imposing pressures from deforestation, invasive species, climate change, overexploitation of species, and land conversion for agricultural production. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15 (Life on Land) aims to address these changes by promoting the protection, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems globally. Freshwater ecosystem services and freshwater biological diversity are inherently part of, and critical to, achieving SDG 15; yet they remain absent from the goal and largely hidden within the targets and indicators. Here, we aim to highlight the role and importance of freshwater ecosystems in achieving SDG 15. We identify the six major themes of SDG 15 in which freshwater ecosystems have a preeminent role: (1) increasing protected areas, (2) sustainably managing forests, (3) reducing land degradation, (4) protecting threatened and trafficked species, (5) reducing invasive species, and (6) mobilizing resources. For each theme, we detail (a) freshwater connections to the topic, (b) key opportunities in addressing freshwater components, and (c) a relevant case study highlighting cobenefits for terrestrial ecosystems from actions targeting freshwater ecosystems. We conclude with opportunities for integrative terrestrial–aquatic monitoring, management, and policy actions. Ultimately, achieving the targets of SDG 15 requires recognition of terrestrial–aquatic interdependencies and prioritization of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity.

Book chapter

Climate legacy and lag effects on dryland plant communities in the southwestern U.S.

Climate change effects on vegetation will likely be strong in the southwestern U.S., which is projected to experience large increases in temperature and changes in precipitation. Plant communities in the southwestern U.S. may be particularly vulnerable to climate change as the productivity of many plant species is strongly water-limited. This study examines the relationship between climate and vegetation condition using a time-series of Landsat imagery across grassland, shrubland, and woodland communities on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We improve on poorly understood inter-annual climate-vegetation relationships by exploring how the responses of different plant communities depend on climate legacies (>12 months) and lag behind shorter-term (3–12 month) changes in water availability. Our results show a prolonged drying trend on the Colorado Plateau since the early 1990s that was punctuated in several years by intense droughts. In areas that experienced sustained dry conditions or a drying trend, vegetation greenness (a proxy for production) increased linearly when conditions were interrupted by wetting events. In contrast, in areas that experienced sustained wet conditions or a wetting trend, vegetation greenness was weakly or not related to wetting events, indicating that production may saturate if vegetation experiences sufficient water availability. Shrubland and woodland communities had stronger relationships with climate at long lags (6–12 months) and many maintained greenness under sustained water deficit, whereas grassland communities had stronger relationships at short lags (3–6 months) and lost greenness even in periods of short-term drought. The results of our study show the importance of identifying climate legacies and lags when assessing indicators of ecological drought, which can be used to improve forecasts of which plant communities will be vulnerable under future climate change.

Colorado Plateau

Uncertainty, robustness, and the value of information in managing an expanding Arctic goose population

We explored the application of dynamic-optimization methods to the problem of pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) management in western Europe. We were especially concerned with the extent to which uncertainty in population dynamics influenced an optimal management strategy, the gain in management performance that could be expected if uncertainty could be eliminated or reduced, and whether an adaptive or robust management strategy might be most appropriate in the face of uncertainty. We combined three alternative survival models with three alternative reproductive models to form a set of nine annual-cycle models for pink-footed geese. These models represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which they are influenced by spring temperatures. We calculated state-dependent harvest strategies for these models using stochastic dynamic programming and an objective function that maximized sustainable harvest, subject to a constraint on desired population size. As expected, attaining the largest mean objective value (i.e., the relative measure of management performance) depended on the ability to match a model-dependent optimal strategy with its generating model of population dynamics. The nine models suggested widely varying objective values regardless of the harvest strategy, with the density-independent models generally producing higher objective values than models with density-dependent survival. In the face of uncertainty as to which of the nine models is most appropriate, the optimal strategy assuming that both survival and reproduction were a function of goose abundance and spring temperatures maximized the expected minimum objective value (i.e., maxi–min). In contrast, the optimal strategy assuming equal model weights minimized the expected maximum loss in objective value. The expected value of eliminating model uncertainty was an increase in objective value of only 3.0%. This value represents the difference between the best that could be expected if the most appropriate model were known and the best that could be expected in the face of model uncertainty. The value of eliminating uncertainty about the survival process was substantially higher than that associated with the reproductive process, which is consistent with evidence that variation in survival is more important than variation in reproduction in relatively long-lived avian species. Comparing the expected objective value if the most appropriate model were known with that of the maxi–min robust strategy, we found the value of eliminating uncertainty to be an expected increase of 6.2% in objective value. This result underscores the conservatism of the maxi–min rule and suggests that risk-neutral managers would prefer the optimal strategy that maximizes expected value, which is also the strategy that is expected to minimize the maximum loss (i.e., a strategy based on equal model weights). The low value of information calculated for pink-footed geese suggests that a robust strategy (i.e., one in which no learning is anticipated) could be as nearly effective as an adaptive one (i.e., a strategy in which the relative credibility of models is assessed through time). Of course, an alternative explanation for the low value of information is that the set of population models we considered was too narrow to represent key uncertainties in population dynamics. Yet we know that questions about the presence of density dependence must be central to the development of a sustainable harvest strategy. And while there are potentially many environmental covariates that could help explain variation in survival or reproduction, our admission of models in which vital rates are drawn randomly from reasonable distributions represents a worst-case scenario for management. We suspect that much of the value of the various harvest strategies we calculated is derived from the fact that they are state dependent, such that appropriate harvest rates depend on population abundance and weather conditions, as well as our focus on an infinite time horizon for sustainability.

Ecological Modelling

Interregional flows of ecosystem services: Concepts, typology and four cases

Conserving and managing global natural capital requires an understanding of the complexity of flows of ecosystem services across geographic boundaries. Failing to understand and to incorporate these flows into national and international ecosystem assessments leads to incomplete and potentially skewed conclusions, impairing society’s ability to identify sustainable management and policy choices. In this paper, we synthesise existing knowledge and develop a conceptual framework for analysing interregional ecosystem service flows. We synthesise the types of such flows, the characteristics of sending and receiving socio-ecological systems, and the impacts of ecosystem service flows on interregional sustainability. Using four cases (trade of certified coffee, migration of northern pintails, flood protection in the Danube watershed, and information on giant pandas), we test the conceptual framework and show how an enhanced understanding of interregional telecouplings in socio-ecological systems can inform ecosystem service-based decision making and governance with respect to sustainability goals.

Ecosystem Services