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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency

Sea-level rise will radically redefine the coastline of the 21 st century. For many coastal regions, projections of global sea-level rise by the year 2100 (e.g., 0.5–2 meters) are comparable in magnitude to today’s extreme but short-lived increases in water level due to storms. Thus, the 21 st century will see significant changes to coastal flooding regimes (where present-day, extreme-but-rare events become common), which poses a major risk to the safety and sustainability of coastal communities worldwide. So far, estimates of future coastal flooding frequency focus on endpoint scenarios, such as the increase in flooding by 2050 or 2100. Here, we investigate the continuous shift in coastal flooding regimes by quantifying continuous rates of increase in the occurrence of extreme water-level events due to sea-level rise. We find that the odds of exceeding critical water-level thresholds increases exponentially with sea-level rise, meaning that fixed amounts of sea-level rise of only ~1–10 cm in areas with a narrow range of present-day extreme water levels can double the odds of flooding. Combining these growth rates with established sea-level rise projections, we find that the odds of extreme flooding double approximately every 5 years into the future. Further, we find that the present-day 50-year extreme water level (i.e., 2% annual chance of exceedance, based on historical records) will be exceeded annually before 2050 for most (i.e., 70%) of the coastal regions in the United States. Looking even farther into the future, the present-day 50-year extreme water level will be exceeded almost every day during peak tide (i.e., daily mean higher high water) before the end of the 21 st century for 90% of the U.S. coast. Our findings underscore the need for immediate planning and adaptation to mitigate the societal impacts of future flooding.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2020

Morphological, elemental, and boron isotopic insights into pathophysiology of diseased coral growth anomalies

Growth anomalies (GAs) impact both coral skeleton and soft tissues and are detrimental to reef health. This tumor-like disease is increasingly found throughout the tropics and is commonly associated with high human population density, yet little is known about the etiology, pathology, or calcification behavior of the disease. Here, we investigate potential mechanisms involved in the development of GAs through chemical and morphological characterization of GA skeletons in Porites compressa from a site of high disease prevalence (Coconut Island, Hawaii). A comprehensive suite of trace elements and boron isotopes (δ11B) were measured in skeletal GAs to assess calcification behavior and uptake of essential and toxic metals. Scanning electron microscopy of GA skeleton revealed it to be highly porous consisting of a matrix with a disorganized crystal structure, in contrast to the dense well-organized normal skeleton of P. compressa. Elemental analyses revealed decreased Mg/Ca and increased U/Ca in GA skeletons relative to paired unaffected samples, suggesting a decreased abundance of rapidly accreting microstructures “centers of calcification” in the GAs. Estimates of carbonate system parameters based on δ11B and B/Ca measurements indicate reduced pH (–0.05 units) and [CO32–] within the calcifying fluid of GAs, which may have implications for GA calcification. Higher levels of essential (V/Ca and Mo/Ca) elements in GAs potentially indicate increased abundance of holobiont-associated, nitrogen-fixing bacteria and higher Sb/Ca and Nd/Ca indicate alteration in the accumulation/depuration of these toxic metals. In aggregate, our findings show that dystrophic calcification processes could explain structural differences seen in GA vs unaffected skeletons and highlight the use of approaches herein to shed light on disease pathophysiology in corals.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2020

The 1933 Long Beach Earthquake (California, USA): Ground motions and rupture scenario

We present a synoptic analysis of the ground motions from the 11 March 1933 Mw 6.4 Long Beach, California, earthquake, the largest known earthquake within the central Los Angeles Basin region. Our inferred shaking intensity pattern supports the association of the earthquake with the Newport-Inglewood fault; it further illuminates the concentration of severe damage in the town of Compton, where accounts suggest vertical ground motions exceeding 1 g . We use a broadband simulation approach to develop a rupture scenario for this earthquake, informed by the damage distribution. The predicted shaking for a 25-km-long fault matches the intensity distribution, with an indication that non-linear site response on soft sediments in some near-field regions was stronger than predicted using a simple model to account for non-linearity. Our results suggest that the concentration of damage near Compton can be explained by a combination of local site amplification, source-controlled directivity, and three-dimensional basin effects whereby energy was channeled towards the deepest part of the Los Angeles Basin.

California↗
USGS2020

The Great Acceleration of fragrances and PAHs archived in an ice core from Elbrus, Caucasus

The Great Acceleration of the anthropogenic impact on the Earth system is marked by the ubiquitous distribution of anthropogenic materials throughout the global environment, including technofossils, radionuclides and the exponential increases of methane and carbon dioxide concentrations. However, personal care products as direct tracers of human domestic habits are often overlooked. Here, we present the first research combining fragrances, as novel personal care products, and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) as combustion and industrial markers, across the onset of the Great Acceleration in the Elbrus, Caucasus, ice core. This archive extends from the 1930s to 2005, spanning the profound changes in the relationship between humans and the environment during the 20th century. Concentrations of both fragrances and PAHs rose throughout the considered period, reflecting the development of the Anthropocene. However, within this rising trend, remarkable decreases of the tracers track the major socioeconomic crises that occurred in Eastern Europe during the second half of the 20th century.

Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus↗
USGS2020

Localized fluid discharge by tensile cracking during the post-seismic period in subduction zones

It is thought that extensional structures (extensional cracks and normal faults) generated during the post-seismic period create fluid pathways that enhance the drainage of the subducting plate interface, thus reducing the pore pressure and increasing fault strength. However, it remains to be elucidated how much pore fluid pressure decreases by the extension crack formation. Here we examined i) the pore fluid pressure decrease, and ii) the degree fault strength recovery by the extension crack formation during the post-seismic period by analyzing extension quartz veins exposed around the Nobeoka Thrust, southwestern Japan. The Nobeoka Trust is an on-land analog of the modern splay fault at shallow depths (~8 km) in the Nankai Trough. The poro-elastic model of extensional quartz vein formation indicates that the formation of extensional cracks only releases up to ~7–8% of the total pore fluid pressure at ~8 km depth. The pore pressure around the Nobeoka Thrust was close to lithostatic pressure during the entire seismic cycle. The estimated effective frictional coefficient along the Nobeoka Thrust after this small fluid-loss by the extensional crack formation does not exceed 0.15. Hence, the pore fluid pressure reduction due to the post-seismic extensional cracks contributes little to increase the fault strength of the megasplay fault.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2020

11‑Deoxycortisol controls hydromineral balance in the most basal osmoregulating vertebrate, sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus)

It is unknown whether and how osmoregulation is controlled by corticosteroid signaling in the phylogenetically basal vertebrate group Agnatha, including lampreys and hagfishes. It is known that a truncated steroid biosynthetic pathway in lampreys produces two predominant circulating corticosteroids, 11-deoxycortisol (S) and 11-deoxycorticosterone (DOC). Furthermore, lampreys express only a single, ancestral corticosteroid receptor (CR). Whether S and/or DOC interact with the CR to control osmoregulation in lampreys is still unknown. We examined the role of the endogenous corticosteroids in vivo and ex vivo in sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) during the critical metamorphic period during which sea lamprey increase osmoregulatory capacity and acquire seawater (SW) tolerance. We demonstrate in vivo that increases in circulating [S] and gill CR abundance are associated with increases in osmoregulatory capacity during metamorphosis. We further show that in vivo and ex vivo treatment with S increases activity and expression of gill active ion transporters and improves SW tolerance, and that only S (and not DOC) has regulatory control over active ion transport in the gills. Lastly, we show that the lamprey CR expresses an ancestral, spironolactone-as-agonist structural motif and that spironolactone treatment in vivo increases osmoregulatory capacity. Together, these results demonstrate that S is an osmoregulatory hormone in lamprey and that receptor-mediated discriminative corticosteroid regulation of hydromineral balance is an evolutionarily basal trait among vertebrates.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2020

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) not detected in an intensive survey of wild North American amphibians

The salamander chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans [Bsal]) is causing massive mortality of salamanders in Europe. The potential for spread via international trade into North America and the high diversity of salamanders has catalyzed concern about Bsal in the U.S. Surveillance programs for invading pathogens must initially meet challenges that include low rates of occurrence on the landscape, low prevalence at a site, and imperfect detection of the diagnostic tests. We implemented a large-scale survey to determine if Bsal was present in North America designed to target taxa and localities where Bsal was determined highest risk to be present based on species susceptibility and geography. Our analysis included a Bayesian model to estimate the probability of occurrence of Bsal given our prior knowledge of the occurrence and prevalence of the pathogen. We failed to detect Bsal in any of 11,189 samples from 594 sites in 223 counties within 35 U.S. states and one site in Mexico. Our modeling indicates that Bsal is highly unlikely to occur within wild amphibians in the U.S. and suggests that the best proactive response is to continue mitigation efforts against the introduction and establishment of the disease and to develop plans to reduce impacts should Bsal establish.

Continental United States↗
USGS2020

Internal tides can provide thermal refugia that will buffer some coral reefs from future global warming

Observations show ocean temperatures are rising due to climate change, resulting in a fivefold increase in the incidence of regional-scale coral bleaching events since the 1980s; analyses based on global climate models forecast bleaching will become an annual event for most of the world’s coral reefs within 30–50 yr. Internal waves at tidal frequencies can regularly flush reefs with cooler waters, buffering the thermal stress from rising sea-surface temperatures. Here we present the first global maps of the effects these processes have on bleaching projections for three IPCC-AR5 emissions scenarios. Incorporating semidiurnal temperature fluctuations into the projected water temperatures at depth creates a delay in the timing of annual severe bleaching ≥ 10 yr (≥ 20 yr) for 38% (9%), 15% (1%), and 1% (0%) of coral reef sites for the low, moderate, and high emission scenarios, respectively; regional averages can reach twice as high. These cooling effects are greatest later in twenty-first century for the moderate emission scenarios, and around the middle twenty-first century for the highest emission scenario. Our results demonstrate how these effects could delay bleaching for corals, providing thermal refugia. Identification of such areas could be a factor for the selection of coral reef marine protected areas.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2020

A global biophysical typology of mangroves and its relevance for ecosystem structure and deforestation

Mangrove forests provide many ecosystem services but are among the world’s most threatened ecosystems. Mangroves vary substantially according to their geomorphic and sedimentary setting; while several conceptual frameworks describe these settings, their spatial distribution has not been quantified. Here, we present a new global mangrove biophysical typology and show that, based on their 2016 extent, 40.5% (54,972 km 2 ) of mangrove systems were deltaic, 27.5% (37,411 km 2 ) were estuarine and 21.0% (28,493 km 2 ) were open coast, with lagoonal mangroves the least abundant (11.0%, 14,993 km 2 ). Mangroves were also classified based on their sedimentary setting, with carbonate mangroves being less abundant than terrigenous, representing just 9.6% of global coverage. Our typology provides a basis for future research to incorporate geomorphic and sedimentary setting in analyses. We present two examples of such applications. Firstly, based on change in extent between 1996 and 2016, we show while all types exhibited considerable declines in area, losses of lagoonal mangroves (− 6.9%) were nearly twice that of other types. Secondly, we quantify differences in aboveground biomass between mangroves of different types, with it being significantly lower in lagoonal mangroves. Overall, our biophysical typology provides a baseline for assessing restoration potential and for quantifying mangrove ecosystem service provision.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2020

Robotic environmental DNA bio-surveillance of freshwater health

Autonomous water sampling technologies may help to overcome the human resource challenges of monitoring biological threats to rivers over long time periods and large geographic areas. The Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute has pioneered a robotic Environmental Sample Processor (ESP) that overcomes some of the constraints associated with traditional sampling since it can automate water sample filtration and preservation of the captured material or homogenize it for immediate analyses in situ. The ESP was originally developed for marine environment applications. Here we evaluated whether the ESP can provide reliable, timely information on environmental (e)DNA detections of human and fish pathogens and introduced fishes at U.S. Geological Survey streamgage sites in freshwater rivers. We compared eDNA collected via ESP at high frequency (e.g., every 3 h) with manual eDNA collections collected at lower frequency (e.g., weekly). We found that water samples filtered and preserved by ESPs successfully detected the DNA of human pathogens, fish pathogens and introduced fishes. Both ESP and manually collected samples provided similar information about target DNA presence. We suggest that the greatest current benefit of the ESP is the cost savings of high frequency, bio-surveillance at remote or hard to access sites. The full potential of robotic technologies like the ESP will be realized when they can more easily execute in situ analyses of water samples and rapidly transmit results to decision-makers.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Mass mortality in freshwater mussels (Actinonaias pectorosa) in the Clinch River, USA, linked to a novel densovirus

Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are among the world’s most biodiverse but imperiled taxa. Recent unionid mass mortality events around the world threaten ecosystem services such as water filtration, nutrient cycling, habitat stabilization, and food web enhancement, but causes have remained elusive. To examine potential infectious causes of these declines, we studied mussels in Clinch River, Virginia and Tennessee, USA, where the endemic and once-predominant pheasantshell ( Actinonaias pectorosa ) has suffered precipitous declines since approximately 2016. Using metagenomics, we identified 17 novel viruses in Clinch River pheasantshells. However, only one virus, a novel densovirus ( Parvoviridae ; Densovirinae ), was epidemiologically linked to morbidity. Clinch densovirus 1 was 11.2 times more likely to be found in cases (moribund mussels) than controls (apparently healthy mussels from the same or matched sites), and cases had 2.7 (log 10 ) times higher viral loads than controls. Densoviruses cause lethal epidemic disease in invertebrates, including shrimp, cockroaches, crickets, moths, crayfish, and sea stars. Viral infection warrants consideration as a factor in unionid mass mortality events either as a direct cause, an indirect consequence of physiological compromise, or a factor interacting with other biological and ecological stressors to precipitate mortality.

Virginia, Tennessee↗
USGS2020

Land subsidence contributions to relative sea level rise at tide gauge Galveston Pier 21, Texas

Relative sea level rise at tide gauge Galveston Pier 21, Texas, is the combination of absolute sea level rise and land subsidence. We estimate subsidence rates of 3.53 mm/a during 1909–1937, 6.08 mm/a during 1937–1983, and 3.51 mm/a since 1983. Subsidence attributed to aquifer-system compaction accompanying groundwater extraction contributed as much as 85% of the 0.7 m relative sea level rise since 1909, and an additional 1.9 m is projected by 2100, with contributions from land subsidence declining from 30 to 10% over the projection interval. We estimate a uniform absolute sea level rise rate of 1.10 mm ± 0.19/a in the Gulf of Mexico during 1909–1992 and its acceleration of 0.270 mm/a 2 at Galveston Pier 21 since 1992. This acceleration is 87% of the value for the highest scenario of global mean sea level rise. Results indicate that evaluating this extreme scenario would be valid for resource-management and flood-hazard-mitigation strategies for coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico, especially those affected by subsidence.

Texas↗
USGS2020

Topographic, soil, and climate drivers of drought sensitivity in forests and shrublands of the Pacific Northwest, USA

Climate change is anticipated to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts, with major impacts to ecosystems globally. Broad-scale assessments of vegetation responses to drought are needed to anticipate, manage, and potentially mitigate climate-change effects on ecosystems. We quantified the drought sensitivity of vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA, as the percent reduction in vegetation greenness under droughts relative to baseline moisture conditions. At a regional scale, shrub-steppe ecosystems—with drier climates and lower biomass—showed greater drought sensitivity than conifer forests. However, variability in drought sensitivity was considerable within biomes and within ecosystems and was mediated by landscape topography, climate, and soil characteristics. Drought sensitivity was generally greater in areas with higher elevation, drier climate, and greater soil bulk density. Ecosystems with high drought sensitivity included dry forests along ecotones to shrublands, Rocky Mountain subalpine forests, and cold upland sagebrush communities. In forests, valley bottoms and areas with low soil bulk density and high soil available water capacity showed reduced drought sensitivity, suggesting their potential as drought refugia. These regional-scale drought-sensitivity patterns discerned from remote sensing can complement plot-scale studies of plant physiological responses to drought to help inform climate-adaptation planning as drought conditions intensify.

Washington, Oregon, Idaho↗
USGS2020

Assessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species’ potential impacts to the landscape

Ecological forecasts of the extent and impacts of invasive species can inform conservation management decisions. Such forecasts are hampered by ecological uncertainties associated with non-analog conditions resulting from the introduction of an invader to an ecosystem. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model tied to a fire behavior model to simulate the spread of buffelgrass ( Cenchrus ciliaris ) in Saguaro National Park, AZ, USA over a 30-year period. The simulation models forecast the potential extent and impact of a buffelgrass invasion including size and frequency of fire events and displacement of saguaro cacti and other native species. Using simulation models allowed us to evaluate how model uncertainties affected forecasted landscape outcomes. We compared scenarios covering a range of parameter uncertainties including model initialization (landscape susceptibility to invasion) and expert-identified ecological uncertainties (buffelgrass patch infill rates and precipitation). Our simulations showed substantial differences in the amount of buffelgrass on the landscape and the size and frequency of fires for dry years with slow patch infill scenarios compared to wet years with fast patch infill scenarios. We identified uncertainty in buffelgrass patch infill rates as a key area for research to improve forecasts. Our approach could be used to investigate novel processes in other invaded systems.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2020

Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE

Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2020

Recent and projected precipitation and temperature changes in the Grand Canyon area with implications for groundwater resources

Groundwater is a critical resource in the Grand Canyon region, supplying nearly all water needs for residents and millions of visitors. Additionally, groundwater discharging at hundreds of spring locations in and near Grand Canyon supports important ecosystems in this mostly arid environment. The security of groundwater supplies is of critical importance for both people and ecosystems in the region and the potential for changes to groundwater systems from projected climate change is a cause for concern. In this study, we analyze recent historical and projected precipitation and temperature data for the Grand Canyon region. Projected climate scenarios are then used in Soil Water Balance groundwater infiltration simulations to understand the state-of-the-science on projected changes to groundwater resources in the area. Historical climate data from 1896 through 2019 indicate multi-decadal cyclical patterns in both precipitation and temperature for most of the time period. Since the 1970s, however, a significant rising trend in temperature is observed in the area. All 10-year periods since 1993 are characterized by both below average precipitation and above average temperature. Downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation and temperature output from 97 CMIP5 global climate models for the water-year 2020–2099 time period indicate projected precipitation patterns similar to recent historical (water-year 1951–2015) data. Projected temperature for the Grand Canyon area, however, is expected to rise by as much as 3.4 °C by the end of the century, relative to the recent historical average. Integrating the effects of projected precipitation and temperature changes on groundwater infiltration, simulation results indicate that > 76% of future decades will experience average potential groundwater infiltration less than that of the recent historical period.

Arizona, Utah↗
USGS2021

An assessment of uranium in groundwater in the Grand Canyon region

The Grand Canyon region in northern Arizona is a home or sacred place of origin for many Native Americans and is visited by over 6 million tourists each year. Most communities in the area depend upon groundwater for all water uses. Some of the highest-grade uranium ore in the United States also is found in the Grand Canyon region. A withdrawal of over 1 million acres of Federal land in the Grand Canyon region from new uranium mining activities for 20 years was instituted in 2012, owing in part to a lack of scientific data on potential effects from uranium mining on water resources in the area. The USGS collects groundwater chemistry samples in the Grand Canyon region to understand the current state of groundwater quality, to monitor for changes in groundwater quality that may be the result of mining activities, and to identify "hot spots" with elevated metal concentrations and investigate the causes. This manuscript presents results for the assessment of uranium in groundwater in the Grand Canyon region. Analytical results for uranium in groundwater in the Grand Canyon region were available for 573 samples collected from 180 spring sites and 26 wells from September 1, 1981 to October 7, 2020. Samples were collected from springs issuing from stratigraphic units above, within, and below the Permian strata that hosts uranium ore in breccia pipes in the area. Maximum uranium concentrations at groundwater sites in the region ranged from less than 1 µg/L at 23 sites (11%) to 100 µg/L or more at 4 sites (2%). Of the 206 groundwater sites sampled, 195 sites (95%) had maximum observed uranium concentrations less than the USEPA Maximum Contaminant Level of 30 µg/L and 177 sites (86%) had uranium concentrations less than the 15 µg/L Canadian benchmark for protection of aquatic life in freshwater. The establishment of baseline groundwater quality is an important first step in monitoring for change in water chemistry throughout mining lifecycles and beyond to ensure the health of these critical groundwater resources.

Arizona↗
USGS2021

Tissue and salinity specific Na+/Cl− cotransporter (NCC) orthologues involved in the adaptive osmoregulation of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus)

Two orthologues of the gene encoding the Na + -Cl − cotransporter (NCC), termed ncca and nccb , were found in the sea lamprey genome. No gene encoding the Na + -K + -2Cl − cotransporter 2 ( nkcc2 ) was identified. In a phylogenetic comparison among other vertebrate NCC and NKCC sequences, the sea lamprey NCCs occupied basal positions within the NCC clades. In freshwater, ncca mRNA was found only in the gill and nccb only in the intestine, whereas both were found in the kidney. Intestinal nccb mRNA levels increased during late metamorphosis coincident with salinity tolerance. Acclimation to seawater increased nccb mRNA levels in the intestine and kidney. Electrophysiological analysis of intestinal tissue ex vivo showed this tissue was anion absorptive. After seawater acclimation, the proximal intestine became less anion absorptive, whereas the distal intestine remained unchanged. Luminal application of indapamide (an NCC inhibitor) resulted in 73% and 30% inhibition of short-circuit current (I sc ) in the proximal and distal intestine, respectively. Luminal application of bumetanide (an NKCC inhibitor) did not affect intestinal I sc . Indapamide also inhibited intestinal water absorption. Our results indicate that NCCb is likely the key ion cotransport protein for ion uptake by the lamprey intestine that facilitates water absorption in seawater. As such, the preparatory increases in intestinal nccb mRNA levels during metamorphosis of sea lamprey are likely critical to development of whole animal salinity tolerance.

Scientific Reports↗