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What do maps show?

The purpose of the teaching package is to help students understand and use maps. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has provided the package as a service to educators so that more Americans will learn to understand the world of information on maps. Everything in the package teaches and reinforces geographic skills that are required in your curriculum.

General Information Product↗

A compilation of spatial digital databases for selected U.S. Geological Survey nonfuel mineral resource assessments for parts of Idaho and Montana

This report compiles selected results from 13 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mineral resource assessment studies conducted in Idaho and Montana into consistent spatial databases that can be used in a geographic information system. The 183 spatial databases represent areas of mineral potential delineated in these studies and include attributes on mineral deposit type, level of mineral potential, certainty, and a reference. The assessments were conducted for five 1? x 2? quadrangles (Butte, Challis, Choteau, Dillon, and Wallace), several U.S. Forest Service (USFS) National Forests (including Challis, Custer, Gallatin, Helena, and Payette), and one Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Resource Area (Dillon). The data contained in the spatial databases are based on published information: no new interpretations are made. This digital compilation is part of an ongoing effort to provide mineral resource information formatted for use in spatial analysis. In particular, this is one of several reports prepared to address USFS needs for science information as forest management plans are revised in the Northern Rocky Mountains.

Open-File Report↗

Flood-inundation maps for Fourmile Creek at Silver Grove, Kentucky

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 3.4-mile reach of Fourmile Creek at Silver Grove, Kentucky, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Silver Grove and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Louisville District. Because the City of Silver Grove is subject to flooding from Fourmile Creek and the Ohio River (backwater flooding up Fourmile Creek), a set of flood-inundation maps was created, including maps for each flooding source considered independently and for possible scenarios involving flooding from both sources combined. The flood-inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to a range of gage heights (gage height is commonly referred to as “stage,” or the water-surface elevation at a streamgage) at the USGS streamgage on Fourmile Creek at Grays Crossing at Silver Grove, Ky. (station number 03238785), and the USGS streamgage on Fourmile Creek at Highway 8 at Silver Grove, Ky. (station number 03238798). Near-real-time stages at these streamgages can be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ . The USGS streamgage on the Ohio River at Cincinnati, Ohio (station number 03255000), is also important in this study because the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS; https://water.weather.gov/ahps/ ) forecasts flood hydrographs for this site (NWS AHPS site CCNO1). The peak-stage information forecast by the NWS AHPS can be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. Flood profiles were computed for the Fourmile Creek study reach by means of a one-dimensional, step-backwater hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the current stage-discharge relation (USGS rating number 1.1) at USGS streamgage 03238785, Fourmile Creek at Grays Crossing at Silver Grove, Ky. The model was then used to compute water-surface profiles for 83 combinations of flood stages on the Ohio River and Fourmile Creek ranging from approximately base flow to greater than a 2-percent annual exceedance probability flood in the model reach. An additional 50 water-surface profiles were computed for backwater-only flooding (from the Ohio River) for flood elevations (referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [NAVD 88]) at 1-foot intervals referenced to USGS streamgage 03238798, Fourmile Creek at Highway 8 at Silver Grove, Ky.; these elevations ranged from approximately normal pool (460 ft, NAVD 88) to approximately a 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood (509 ft, NAVD 88) on the Ohio River. The computed water-surface profile information was then combined with a digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data to delineate the approximate flooded areas. The digital flood-inundation maps are available through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapper application ( https://fim.wim.usgs.gov/fim/ ), which presents map libraries and provides detailed information on flood extent and depths for selected sites. The flood-inundation maps developed in this study, in conjunction with the real-time stage data from the USGS streamgages on Fourmile Creek at Silver Grove, Ky., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS AHPS, are intended to provide information that can help inform the public about potential flooding and provide emergency management personnel with a tool to efficiently manage emergency flood operations, such as evacuations and road closures, and assist in postflood recovery efforts.

Kentucky↗

History and use of remote sensing for conservation and management of federal lands in Alaska, USA

Remote sensing has been used to aid land use planning efforts for federal public lands in Alaska since the 1940s. Four federal land management agencies-the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, US. Bureau of Land Management, US. National Park Service, and U.S. Forest Service-have used aerial photography and satellite imagery to document the extent, type, and condition of Alaska's natural resources. Aerial photographs have been used to collect detailed information over small to medium-sized areas. This standard management tool is obtainable using equipment ranging from hand-held 35-mm cameras to precision metric mapping cameras. Satellite data, equally important, provide synoptic views of landscapes, are digitally manipulatable, and are easily merged with other digital databases. To date, over 109.2 million ha (72%) of Alaska's land cover have been mapped via remote sensing. This information has provided a base for conservation, management, and planning on federal public lands in Alaska.

Alaska↗

Species richness and relative abundance of breeding birds in forests of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

In 1992, the Vicksburg Field Research Station of the National Wetlands Research Center initiated research on the ecology of migratory birds within forests of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV). The MAV was historically a nearly contiguous bottomland hardwood forest, however, only remnants remain. These remnants are fragmented and often influenced by drainage projects, silviculture, agriculture, and urban development. Our objectives are to assess species richness and relative abundance, and to relate these to the size, quality, and composition of forest stands. Species richness and relative abundance were estimated for 53 randomly selected forest sites using 1 to 8 point counts per site, depending on the size of the forest fragment. However, statistical comparisons among sites will be restricted to an equal number ofpoint counts within the sites being compared. Point counts, lasting five minutes, were conducted from 11 May to 29 June 1992, foltowing Ralph, Sauer, and Droege (Point Count Standards; memo dated 9 March 1992). Vegetation was measured at the first three points on each site using a modification of the methods employed by Martin and Roper (Condor 90: 5 1-57; 1988). During 252 counts, 7 1 species were encountered, but only 62 species were encountered within a 50-m radius of point center. The mean number of species encountered within 50 m of a point, was 7.3 (s.d. = 2.7) and the mean number of individuals was 11.2 (s.d. = 4.2). The mean number of species detected at any distance was 9.6 (s.d, = 2.8) and the mean number of individuals was 15.6 (s.d. = 7.9). The most frequently encountered warblers in the MAV were Prothonotary Warbler and Northern Parula. Rarely encountered warblers were American Redstart and Worm-eating Warbler. The genera, Quercus, Ulmus, Carya, and Celtis were each encountered at 80 or more of the 152 points at which vegetation was sampled. Species most frequentlyencountered were: sugarberry (Celtis laevagata), water hickory (Caqa aquatica), American elm (Ulmus arnericana), sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) and willow oak (Quercus phellos) The mean basal area of all trees 10 cm diameter-at-breast height (dbh) was 28 m2 /ha (range 7-70). The mean canopy cover was 87 percent, mean canopy height was 20 m, ground cover was 60 percent, and vegetation density (2-7 m) was 47 percent. The most frequently encountered understory species were sugarberry, ash (Fraxinus spp.), maple (Acer spp.), and elm (Ulnrus spp.). A cooperative GIs effort among the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Nature Conservancy, and the University of Arkansas is currently classifying forested habitats within the MAV. This effort will provide information on stand size and topology which will be used in concert with our current data, and data from visits to additional forest stands in 1993, to assess the relationship between the size, quatity, and composition of forests within the MAV and their breeding bird community.

Book chapter↗

Habitat Suitability Index Models and Instream Flow Suitability Curves: White bass

Habitat characteristics important to white bass (Morone chrysops) are reviewed in this report using two techniques developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) and the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM). The Suitability Index (SI) curves and graphs and Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models developed in this report are based primarily on a synthesis of information obtained from a review of literature concerning the habitat requirements of the species. A discussion of IFIM and white bass SI curves available for use with IFIM is included.

FWS/OBS↗

Using a spatial and tabular database to generate statistics from terrain and spectral data for soil surveys

A methodology has been developed to create a spatial database by referencing digital elevation, Landsat multispectral scanner data, and digitized soil premap delineations of a number of adjacent 7.5-min quadrangle areas to a 30-m Universal Transverse Mercator projection. Slope and aspect transformations are calculated from elevation data and grouped according to field office specifications. An unsupervised classification is performed on a brightness and greenness transformation of the spectral data. The resulting spectral, slope, and aspect maps of each of the 7.5-min quadrangle areas are then plotted and submitted to the field office to be incorporated into the soil premapping stages of a soil survey. A tabular database is created from spatial data by generating descriptive statistics for each data layer within each soil premap delineation. The tabular data base is then entered into a data base management system to be accessed by the field office personnel during the soil survey and to be used for subsequent resource management decisions. Large amounts of data are collected and archived during resource inventories for public land management. Often these data are stored as stacks of maps or folders in a file system in someone's office, with the maps in a variety of formats, scales, and with various standards of accuracy depending on their purpose. This system of information storage and retrieval is cumbersome at best when several categories of information are needed simultaneously for analysis or as input to resource management models. Computers now provide the resource scientist with the opportunity to design increasingly complex models that require even more categories of resource-related information, thus compounding the problem. Recently there has been much emphasis on the use of geographic information systems (GIS) as an alternative method for map data archives and as a resource management tool. Considerable effort has been devoted to the generation of tabular databases, such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture's SCS/S015 ( Soil Survey Staff, 1983 ), to archive the large amounts of information that are collected in conjunction with mapping of natural resources in an easily retrievable manner. During the past 4 years the U.S. Geological Survey's EROS Data Center, in a cooperative effort with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS), developed a procedure that uses spatial and tabular databases to generate elevation, slope, aspect, and spectral map products that can be used during soil premapping. The procedure results in tabular data, residing in a database management system, that are indexed to the final soil delineations and help quantify soil map unit composition. The procedure was developed and tested on soil surveys on over 600 000 ha in Wyoming, Nevada, and Idaho. A transfer of technology from the EROS Data Center to the BLM will enable the Denver BLM Service Center to use this procedure in soil survey operations on BLM lands. Also underway is a cooperative effort between the EROS Data Center and SCS to define and evaluate maps that can be produced as derivatives of digital elevation data for 7.5-min quadrangle areas, such as those used during the premapping stage of the soil surveys mentioned above, the idea being to make such products routinely available. The procedure emphasizes the applications of digital elevation and spectral data to order-three soil surveys on rangelands, and will: Incorporate digital terrain and spectral data into a spatial database for soil surveys. Provide hardcopy products (that can be generated from digital elevation model and spectral data) that are useful during the soil pre-mapping process. Incorporate soil premaps into a spatial database that can be accessed during the soil survey process along with terrain and spectral data. Summarize useful quantitative information for soil mapping and for making interpretations for resource management.

Book chapter↗

Flood-inundation maps for Sweetwater Creek from above the confluence of Powder Springs Creek to the Interstate 20 bridge, Cobb and Douglas Counties, Georgia

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 10.5-mile reach of Sweetwater Creek, from about 1,800 feet above the confluence of Powder Springs Creek to about 160 feet below the Interstate 20 bridge, were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with Cobb County, Georgia. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Sweetwater Creek near Austell, Georgia (02337000). Current stage at this USGS streamgage may be obtained at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ and can be used in conjunction with these maps to estimate near real-time areas of inundation. The National Weather Service (NWS) is incorporating results from this study into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that commonly are collocated at USGS streamgages. The forecasted peak-stage information for the USGS streamgage at Sweetwater Creek near Austell (02337000), which is available through the AHPS Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. A one-dimensional step-backwater model was developed using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) software for Sweetwater Creek and was used to compute flood profiles for a 10.5-mile reach of the creek. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Sweetwater Creek near Austell streamgage (02337000), as well as high-water marks collected during annual peak-flow events in 1982 and 2009. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 21 water-surface profiles for flood stages at the Sweetwater Creek streamgage at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from just above bankfull stage (12.0 feet) to approximately 1.2 feet above the highest recorded water level at the streamgage (32.0 feet). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model—derived from contour data (8-foot horizontal resolution), in Cobb County, and USGS National Elevation Dataset (31-foot horizontal resolution), in Douglas County—to delineate the area flooded for each 1-foot increment of stream stage. The availability of these maps, when combined with real-time information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with critical information during flood-response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Georgia↗

Allowable take of black vultures in the eastern United States

Black vultures ( Coragyps atratus ) have been increasing in density and expanding their range in the eastern United States since at least the 1960s. In many areas, their densities have increased to the level where they are causing damage to property and livestock and the number of requests for allowable take permits has increased throughout these areas. The United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) requires updated information to help inform the number of take permits that could reduce conflicts while meeting obligations under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act. We expanded analyses used to estimate allowable take in Virginia to cover the range of black vultures in the eastern United States. We used the prescribed take level approach, which integrates demographic rates, population size estimates, and management objectives into an estimate of allowable take. We provide estimates of allowable take at 4 different scales: individual states, Bird Conservation Regions, USFWS administrative regions, and flyways. Our updated population time series provides evidence of rapidly increasing black vulture populations in many regions of the eastern United States, with an overall population estimate of approximately 4.26 million in 2015 in the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyways. Estimated allowable take ranged from a few hundred individuals per year in states at the northern end of the species range to approximately 287,000/year over the entire eastern United States. The USFWS has no legal mandate regarding the spatial scale at which take should be managed and we found little biological evidence of subpopulation structure for black vultures in the eastern United States. We suggest that allowable take for the species be implemented at a scale that meets stakeholder objectives (e.g., reducing conflict, and ensuring that black vultures are not extirpated from local areas) and is efficient for administrative and monitoring purposes.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Biodiversity on public lands: How community science can help

Species inventories are crucial for conservation but are difficult to assemble and maintain. Bioblitzes, which encourage the public to document biodiversity in a particular area and timeframe, may offer useful information but their integration with other datasets poses challenges. We investigated the potential contribution of bioblitzes to natural resource management using observations from the United States National Park Service (NPS) 2016 Centennial Bioblitz. Through automated cross-referencing over 19,000 iNaturalist “research-grade” observations from 107 national parks with existing park inventory lists, we matched 86% of species documented in the Bioblitz to NPS species lists, based on current taxonomy, and matched another 6% of species using alternative scientific names using our matching process in R. Of the remaining 13.5% that did not match the NPS species lists, we manually found that 84% of the unmatched species were found within the lists or were outside the boundaries of the park, identifying 141 native species that were unrecorded in NPS species lists. Many introduced species were recorded; they were more likely to be documented in parks closer to cities. Parks near cities also drew more participants. Our study shows how public participation, through iNaturalist and bioblitzes, can facilitate biodiversity monitoring across large spatial scales.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

Development of a hydraulic model and flood-inundation maps for the Wabash River near the Interstate 64 Bridge near Grayville, Illinois

A two-dimensional hydraulic model and digital flood‑inundation maps were developed for a 30-mile reach of the Wabash River near the Interstate 64 Bridge near Grayville, Illinois. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Flood Inundation Mapping Science web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the Wabash River at Mount Carmel, Ill (USGS station number 03377500). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the internet from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site (NWS AHPS site MCRI2). The NWS AHPS forecasts peak stage information that may be used with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. Flood elevations were computed for the Wabash River reach by means of a two-dimensional, finite-volume numerical modeling application for river hydraulics. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using global positioning system measurements of water-surface elevation and the current stage-discharge relation at both USGS streamgage 03377500, Wabash River at Mount Carmel, Ill., and USGS streamgage 03378500, Wabash River at New Harmony, Indiana. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to compute 27 water-surface elevations for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from less than the action stage (9 ft) to the highest stage (35 ft) of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water‑surface elevations were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model, derived from light detection and ranging data, to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with information on the internet regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at Mount Carmel, Ill., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS AHPS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Illinois↗

Planning for population viability on Northern Great Plains national grasslands

Broad-scale information in concert with conservation of individual species must be used to develop conservation priorities and a more integrated ecosystem protection strategy. In 1999 the United States Forest Service initiated an approach for the 1.2× 10 6 ha of national grasslands in the Northern Great Plains to fulfill the requirement to maintain viable populations of all native and desirable introduced vertebrate and plant species. The challenge was threefold: 1) develop basic building blocks in the conservation planning approach, 2) apply the approach to national grasslands, and 3) overcome differences that may exist in agency-specific legal and policy requirements. Key assessment components in the approach included a bioregional assessment, coarse-filter analysis, and fine-filter analysis aimed at species considered at-risk. A science team of agency, conservation organization, and university personnel was established to develop the guidelines and standards and other formal procedures for implementation of conservation strategies. Conservation strategies included coarse-filter recommendations to restore the tallgrass, mixed, and shortgrass prairies to conditions that approximate historical ecological processes and landscape patterns, and fine-filter recommendations to address viability needs of individual and multiple species of native animals and plants. Results include a cost-effective approach to conservation planning and recommendations for addressing population viability and biodiversity concerns on national grasslands in the Northern Great Plains.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Flood-inundation maps for Cedar Creek at 18th Street at Auburn, Indiana

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 1.9-mile reach of Cedar Creek at Auburn, Indiana (Ind.), from the First Street bridge, downstream to the streamgage at 18th Street, then ending approximately 1,100 feet (ft) downstream of the Baltimore and Ohio railroad, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science web site at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on Cedar Creek at 18th Street at Auburn, Ind. (station number 04179520). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ , although forecasts of flood hydrographs are not available at this site (ABBI3). Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relation at the Cedar Creek at 18th Street at Auburn, Ind. streamgage and the documented high-water marks from the flood of March 11, 2009. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to compute seven water-surface profiles for flood stages referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 7 ft, or near bankfull, to 13 ft, in 1-foot increments. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging [lidar] data having a 0.98-ft vertical accuracy and 4.9-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at Cedar Creek at 18th Street at Auburn, Ind., and stream information from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Indiana↗

Monitoring long-term changes of urban surface temperature using time-series land cover and remote sensing data across 50 major cities in the United States

The increase of developed land changes the Earth’s ecosystems and, in doing so, impacts the natural environment and further affects the services it provides to humans. Urban growth and associated land cover transitions alter the thermal and physical properties of the land surface, resulting in surface temperature change in urban areas. In this study, we integrated both land cover and surface temperature information to characterize surface temperature spatiotemporal variations using the recently available time series of Landsat land surface temperature and annual land change products. We analyzed over thirty-year trends of land surface temperature (LST) in urban and surrounding non-urban lands. We found that the transitions of different land cover types to urban affected urban LST trends differently, and further impacted the temporal trend of urban heat island intensity.

continental United States↗

Flood-inundation maps for a 12.5-mile reach of Big Papillion Creek at Omaha, Nebraska

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 12.5-mile reach of the Big Papillion Creek from 0.6 mile upstream from the State Street Bridge to the 72nd Street Bridge in Omaha, Nebraska, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the Big Papillion Creek at Fort Street at Omaha, Nebraska (station 06610732). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site. Flood profiles were computed for the 12.5-mile reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the current (2015) stage-discharge relation at streamgages for the Big Papillion Creek at Fort Street at Omaha, Nebraska, and the Big Papillion Creek at Q Street at Omaha, Nebraska. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 15 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum for the Big Papillion Creek at Fort Street and ranging from 18 ft (or near bankfull) to 32 ft, which exceeds the “major flood stage” as defined by the National Weather Service. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a 1.18-ft vertical accuracy and 3.28-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each flood stage (water level). The availability of these flood-inundation maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Nebraska↗

Applying threshold concepts to conservation management of dryland ecosystems: Case studies on the Colorado Plateau

Ecosystems may occupy functionally distinct alternative states, some of which are more or less desirable from a management standpoint. Transitions from state to state are usually associated with a particular trigger or sequence of triggers, such as the addition or subtraction of a disturbance. Transitions are often not linear, rather it is common to see an abrupt transition come about even though the trigger increases only incrementally; these are examples of threshold behaviors. An ideal monitoring program, such as the National Park Service’s Inventory and Monitoring Program, would quantify triggers, and be able to inform managers when measurements of a trigger are approaching a threshold so that management action can avoid an unwanted state transition. Unfortunately, both triggers and the threshold points at which state transitions occur are generally only partially known. Using case studies, we advance a general procedure to help identify triggers and estimate where threshold dynamics may occur. Our procedure is as follows: (1) Operationally define the ecosystem type being considered; we suggest that the ecological site concept of the Natural Resource Conservation Service is a useful system, (2) Using all available a priori knowledge to develop a state-and-transition model (STM), which defines possible ecosystem states, plausible transitions among them and likely triggers, (3) Validate the STM by verifying the existence of its states to the greatest degree possible, (4) Use the STM model to identify transitions and triggers likely to be detectable by a monitoring program, and estimate to the greatest degree possible the value of a measurable indicator of a trigger at the point that a state transition is imminent (tipping point), and values that may indicate when management intervention should be considered (assessment points). We illustrate two different methods for attaining these goals using a data-rich case study in Canyonlands National Park, and a data-poor case study in Wupatki National Monument. In the data-rich case, STMs are validated and revised, and tipping and assessment points are estimated using statistical analysis of data. In the data-poor case, we develop an iterative expert opinion survey approach to validate the degree of confidence in an STM, revise the model, identify lack of confidence in specific model components, and create reasonable first approximations of tipping and assessment points, which can later be refined when more data are available. Our goal should be to develop the best set of models possible given the level of information available to support decisions, which is often not much. The approach presented here offers a flexible means of achieving this goal, and determining specific research areas in need of study.

Book chapter↗

U.S. Geological Survey sagebrush ecosystem research annual report for 2019

The sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystem extends across a large portion of the Western United States. Affected by multiple stressors, including interactions among fire, exotic plant invasions, and human land uses, this ecosystem has experienced significant loss, fragmentation, and degradation of landscapes once dominated by sagebrush. In turn, wildlife populations have declined following these deleterious conditions. Federal, State, local, and Tribal agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and industry have been galvanized by declining wildlife populations to implement management actions to confront the impacts of these stressors and insure the long-term availability of the sagebrush ecosystem for the broad range of uses critical to stakeholders in the Western United States. The sagebrush ecosystem provides habitat for over 350 species of plants and animals that are dependent on sagebrush for all or part of their annual life history. The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) stands out as the iconic species. Sage-grouse populations occur in 11 States and require relatively large expanses of sagebrush-dominated habitat to meet all their seasonal habitat needs. Recent management actions to conserve and maintain the sagebrush ecosystem have focused on the protection and restoration of sage-grouse habitat. However, each of the 350 species has a unique life history and differing area requirements (for example, large areas for Mule deer [ Odocoileus hemionus ] and small areas for pygmy rabbit [ Brachylagus idahoensis ]), and some species, such as migratory birds, only rely the sagebrush ecosystem for part of the year (for example, Brewer’s sparrow [ Spizella breweri ]). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a broad research program focused on the sagebrush ecosystem and these species and their response to stressors and management actions. The research is tailored specifically to inform and improve strategies for maintaining existing areas of intact sagebrush and restoring degraded landscapes. By providing the science to inform these strategies, the USGS is assisting land and resource managers at the Federal, State, Tribal, and local levels working towards sustainable wildlife populations and restored landscapes. The USGS provides a foundation of scientific information for use in major land and resource management decisions in the sagebrush ecosystem. These have included such actions as the preclusion of the need to list the greater sage-grouse under the Endangered Species Act and recent revisions to Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service resource management plans. The USGS continues to build on that foundation to inform science-based decisions within the U.S. Department of the Interior and other Federal, State, and local agencies and their continued conservation, management, and restoration of the sagebrush ecosystem to help support local economies.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗

Developing flood-inundation maps for Johnson Creek, Portland, Oregon

Digital flood-inundation maps were created for a 12.9‑mile reach of Johnson Creek by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The flood-inundation maps depict estimates of water depth and areal extent of flooding from the mouth of Johnson Creek to just upstream of Southeast 174th Avenue in Portland, Oregon. Each flood-inundation map is based on a specific water level and associated streamflow at the USGS streamgage, Johnson Creek at Sycamore, Oregon (14211500), which is located near the upstream boundary of the maps. The maps produced by the USGS, and the forecasted flood hydrographs produced by National Weather Service River Forecast Center can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapper Web site ( http://wimcloud.usgs.gov/apps/FIM/FloodInundationMapper.html ) . Water-surface elevations were computed for Johnson Creek using a combined one-dimensional and two‑dimensional unsteady hydraulic flow model. The model was calibrated using data collected from the flood of December 2015 (including the calculated streamflows at two USGS streamgages on Johnson Creek) and validated with data from the flood of January 2009. Results were typically within 0.6 foot (ft) of recorded or measured water-surface elevations from the December 2015 flood, and within 0.8 ft from the January 2009 flood. Output from the hydraulic model was used to create eight flood inundation maps ranging in stage from 9 to 16 ft. Boundary condition hydrographs were identical in shape to those from the December 2015 flood event, but were scaled up or down to produce the amount of streamflow corresponding to a specific water-surface elevation at the Sycamore streamgage (14211500). Sensitivity analyses using other hydrograph shapes, and a version of the model in which the peak flow is maintained for an extended period of time, showed minimal variation, except for overbank areas near the Foster Floodplain Natural Area. Simulated water-surface profiles were combined with light detection and ranging (lidar) data collected in 2014 to delineate water-surface extents for each of the eight modeled stages. The availability of flood-inundation maps in conjunction with real-time data from the USGS streamgages along Johnson Creek and forecasted hydrographs from the National Weather Service Northwest River Forecast Center will provide residents of the watershed and emergency management personnel with valuable information that may aid in flood response, including potential evacuations, road closures, and mitigation efforts. In addition, these maps may be used for post-flood recovery efforts.

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