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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Comparative evaluation of statistical and mechanistic models of Escherichia coli at beaches in southern Lake Michigan

Statistical and mechanistic models are popular tools for predicting the levels of indicator bacteria at recreational beaches. Researchers tend to use one class of model or the other, and it is difficult to generalize statements about their relative performance due to differences in how the models are developed, tested, and used. We describe a cooperative modeling approach for freshwater beaches impacted by point sources in which insights derived from mechanistic modeling were used to further improve the statistical models and vice versa. The statistical models provided a basis for assessing the mechanistic models which were further improved using probability distributions to generate high-resolution time series data at the source, long-term “tracer” transport modeling based on observed electrical conductivity, better assimilation of meteorological data, and the use of unstructured-grids to better resolve nearshore features. This approach resulted in improved models of comparable performance for both classes including a parsimonious statistical model suitable for real-time predictions based on an easily measurable environmental variable (turbidity). The modeling approach outlined here can be used at other sites impacted by point sources and has the potential to improve water quality predictions resulting in more accurate estimates of beach closures.

Lake Michigan, Ogden Dunes↗
USGS2009

Seasonal variations of Zn/Cu ratios in acid mine water from Iron Mountain, California

Time-series data on Zn/Cu weight ratios from portal effluent compositions [(Zn/Cu) water ] at Iron Mountain, California, show seasonal variations that can be related to the precipitation and dissolution of melanterite [(Fe II ,Zn,Cu)SO 4 ·7H 2 O]. Mine water and actively forming melanterite were collected from underground mine workings and chemically analyzed. The temperature-dependent solubility of Zn-Cu-bearing melanterite solid solutions was investigated by heating-cooling experiments using the mine water. Rapid kinetics of melanterite dissolution and precipitation facilitated reversed solubility experiments at 25°C. Non-reversed solubility data were obtained in the laboratory at 4° and 35°C and at ambient underground mine conditions (38° and 42°C). Copper is partitioned preferentially to zinc into melanterite solid solutions at all temperatures investigated. During the annual dry season, values of (Zn/Cu) water in the Richmond portal effluent increase to values between 8 to 13, consistent with formation of melanterite during this period. During the annual wet season, the onset of high discharge from the mine portals is characterized by a significant decrease in (Zn/Cu) water to values as low as 2. This phenomenon may be caused by dissolution of melanterite with values of (Zn/Cu) solid ranging from 1.5 to 3.5.

California↗
USGS2012

Utilizing multichannel electrical resistivity methods to examine the dynamics of the fresh water–seawater interface in two Hawaiian groundwater systems

Multichannel electrical resistivity (ER) measurements were conducted at two contrasting coastal sites in Hawaii to obtain new information on the spatial scales and dynamics of the fresh water–seawater interface and rates of coastal groundwater exchange. At Kiholo Bay (located on the dry, Kona side of the Big Island) and at a site in Maunalua Bay (Oahu), there is an evidence for abundant submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). However, the hydrologic and geologic controls on coastal groundwater discharge are likely to be different at these two sites. While at Kiholo Bay SGD is predominantly through lava tubes, at the Maunalua Bay site exchange occurs mostly through nearshore submarine springs. In order to calculate SGD fluxes, it is important to understand the spatial and temporal scales of coastal groundwater exchange. From ER time series data, subsurface salinity distributions were calculated using site-specific formation factors. A salinity mass balance box model was then used to calculate rates of point source (i.e., spatially discreet) and total fresh water discharge. From these data, mean SGD rates were calculated for Kiholo Bay (∼9,200 m 3 /d) and for the Maunalua Bay site (∼5,900 m 3 /d). While such results are on the same order of magnitude to geochemical tracer-derived SGD rates, the ER SGD rates provide enhanced details of coastal groundwater exchange that can enable a more cohesive whole watershed perspective.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2020

Seasonal variation in sediment delivery across the bay-marsh interface of an estuarine salt marsh

Sediment transport across bay–marsh interfaces depends on wave energy, vegetation, and marsh-edge morphology, and varies over a range of timescales. We investigated these dynamics in a tidal salt marsh with a gently-sloped, vegetated edge adjacent to northern San Francisco Bay. Spartina foliosa (cordgrass) inhabits the lower marsh and Salicornia pacifica (pickleweed) predominates on the marsh plain. We measured suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) and hydrodynamics in bay shallows and along a 100-m cross-shore transect in the marsh, during winter and summer. Four-year averaged accretion measured with marker-horizon plots was twice as great along the marsh transect as adjacent to a tidal creek, 50 m from the bay. We estimated deposition and trapping efficiency from the time-series data to assess its variation with season and wave energy. At high tide the transition zone (between cordgrass and pickleweed) was usually erosional, the pickleweed zone was depositional, and both erosion and deposition increased with wave energy, as did the landward position of maximum deposition. Erosion from the transition zone accounted for approximately one-third of the sediment flux into the pickleweed. In the pickleweed zone, SSC, the difference between flood- and ebb-tide SSC and trapping efficiency were greater in summer than winter for comparable wave conditions, which we attribute to increased sediment trapping by dense summer cordgrass. Moderate waves in summer (46%) accounted for more annual accretion in the pickleweed zone than larger waves in winter (28%), although the contribution of winter storms was diminished by the dry winter during the study.

California↗
USGS2020

Effects of climate and land-use changes on fish catches across lakes at a global scale

Globally, our knowledge on lake fisheries is still limited despite their importance to food security and livelihoods. Here we show that fish catches can respond either positively or negatively to climate and land-use changes, by analyzing time-series data (1970–2014) for 31 lakes across five continents. We find that effects of a climate or land-use driver (e.g., air temperature) on lake environment could be relatively consistent in directions, but consequential changes in a lake-environmental factor (e.g., water temperature) could result in either increases or decreases in fish catch in a given lake. A subsequent correlation analysis indicates that reductions in fish catch was less likely to occur in response to potential climate and land-use changes if a lake is located in a region with greater access to clean water. This finding suggests that adequate investments for water-quality protection and water-use efficiency can provide additional benefits to lake fisheries and food security.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2025

Community estimate of global glacier mass changes from 2000 to 2023

Glaciers are indicators of ongoing anthropogenic climate change 1 . Their melting leads to increased local geohazards 2 , and impacts marine 3 and terrestrial 4 , 5 ecosystems, regional freshwater resources 6 , and both global water and energy cycles 7 , 8 . Together with the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, glaciers are essential drivers of present 9 , 10 and future 11 , 12 , 13 sea-level rise. Previous assessments of global glacier mass changes have been hampered by spatial and temporal limitations and the heterogeneity of existing data series 14 , 15 , 16 . Here we show in an intercomparison exercise that glaciers worldwide lost 273 ± 16 gigatonnes in mass annually from 2000 to 2023, with an increase of 36 ± 10% from the first (2000–2011) to the second (2012–2023) half of the period. Since 2000, glaciers have lost between 2% and 39% of their ice regionally and about 5% globally. Glacier mass loss is about 18% larger than the loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and more than twice that from the Antarctic Ice Sheet 17 . Our results arise from a scientific community effort to collect, homogenize, combine and analyse glacier mass changes from in situ and remote-sensing observations. Although our estimates are in agreement with findings from previous assessments 14 , 15 , 16 at a global scale, we found some large regional deviations owing to systematic differences among observation methods. Our results provide a refined baseline for better understanding observational differences and for calibrating model ensembles 12 , 16 , 18 , which will help to narrow projection uncertainty for the twenty-first century 11 , 12 , 18 .

Nature↗
USGS2003

Effective number of breeding adults in Bufo bufo estimated from age-specific variation at minisatellite loci

Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number ( N b ) based on a large age-specific variance in mini-satellite allele frequency. Estimates of N b (range 21–46 for population means across three loci) were ≊ 55–230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as N b and N e based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.

Leicestershire region↗
USGS2002

A case for using Plethodontid salamanders for monitoring biodiversity and ecosystem integrity of North American forests

Terrestrial salamanders of the family Plethodontidae have unique attributes that make them excellent indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem integrity in forested habitats. Their longevity, small territory size, site fidelity, sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic perturbations, tendency to occur in high densities, and low sampling costs mean that counts of plethodontid salamanders provide numerous advantages over counts of other North American forest organisms for indicating environmental change. Furthermore, they are tightly linked physiologically to microclimatic and successional processes that influence the distribution and abundance of numerous other hydrophilic but difficult-to-study forest-dwelling plants and animals. Ecosystem processes such as moisture cycling, food-web dynamics, and succession, with their related structural and microclimatic variability, all affect forest biodiversity and have been shown to affect salamander populations as well. We determined the variability associated with sampling for plethodontid salamanders by estimating the coefficient of variation (CV ) from available time-series data. The median coefficient of variation indicated that variation in counts of individuals among studies was much lower in plethodontids (27%) than in lepidoptera (93%), passerine birds (57%), small mammals (69%), or other amphibians (37–46%), which means plethodontid salamanders provide an important statistical advantage over other species for monitoring long-term forest health.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

Macroscale controls determine the recovery of river ecosystem productivity following flood disturbances

River ecosystems rely on varied flows, including regular floods, to provide food and habitat for aquatic organisms. However, flows of freshwater are becoming increasingly managed for irrigation, industry, and other human activities, and the frequency of floods is changing. Our study used time-series data of photosynthesis from 143 rivers across the United States and developed a modeling framework to examine how algae, the base of most riverine food webs, recovered following scouring disturbance during floods. We found that algae in wider rivers recovered more quickly following disturbance (e.g., removal from the bottom) but that the flow thresholds at which algae is disturbed are likely more strongly influenced by site-specific characteristics.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2012

Bioenergetic response by steelhead to variation in diet, thermal habitat, and climate in the north Pacific Ocean

Energetic responses of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss to climate-driven changes in marine conditions are expected to affect the species’ ocean distribution, feeding, growth, and survival. With a unique 18-year data series (1991–2008) for steelhead sampled in the open ocean, we simulated interannual variation in prey consumption and growth efficiency of steelhead using a bioenergetics model to evaluate the temperature-dependent growth response of steelhead to past climate events and to estimate growth potential of steelhead under future climate scenarios. Our results showed that annual ocean growth of steelhead is highly variable depending on prey quality, consumption rates, total consumption, and thermal experience. At optimal growing temperatures, steelhead can compensate for a low-energy diet by increasing consumption rates and consuming more prey, if available. Our findings suggest that steelhead have a narrow temperature window in which to achieve optimal growth, which is strongly influenced by climate-driven changes in ocean temperature.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2012

Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

Identifying climate-driven trends in river flows on a global basis is hampered by a lack of long, quality time series data for rivers with relatively undisturbed regimes. This is a global problem compounded by the lack of support for essential long-term monitoring. Experience demonstrates that, with clear strategic objectives, and the support of sponsoring organizations, reference hydrologic networks can constitute an exceptionally valuable data source to effectively identify, quantify and interpret hydrological change—the speed and magnitude of which is expected to a be a primary driver of water management and flood alleviation strategies through the future—and for additional applications. Reference hydrologic networks have been developed in many countries in the past few decades. These collections of streamflow gauging stations, that are maintained and operated with the intention of observing how the hydrology of watersheds responds to variations in climate, are described. The status of networks under development is summarized. We suggest a plan of actions to make more effective use of this collection of networks.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗
USGS2018

Comment on “The earliest modern humans outside Africa”

Hershkovitz et al . (Reports, 26 January 2018, p. 456) interpreted the Misliya-1 fossil maxilla as evidence of the earliest known anatomically modern human outside Africa. However, the fossil’s reported age of 177,000 to 194,000 years relies on flawed interpretations of uranium-series data. We contend that those data support a minimum age of no more than ~60,000 to 70,000 years.

Science↗
USGS1996

Waters associated with an active basaltic volcano, Kilauea, Hawaii: Variation in solute sources, 1973-1991

Chemical and isotopic analyses of samples collected from a December 1962-m-deep research borehole at the summit of Kilauea Volcano provide unique time-series data for composition of waters in the uppermost part of its hydrothermal system. These waters have a distinctive geochemical signature: a very low proportion of chloride relative to other anions compared with other Hawaiian waters—thermal (•30°C) or nonthermal (<30°C)—and with most thermal waters of the world. Isotope data demonstrate that the borehole waters are of essentially meteoric origin, with minimal magmatic input.

Hawaii↗
USGS2008

Late pleistocene aggradation and degradation of the lower colorado river: Perspectives from the Cottonwood area and other reconnaissance below Boulder Canyon

Where the lower Colorado River traverses the Basin and Range Province below the Grand Canyon, significant late Pleistocene aggradation and subsequent degrada tion of the river are indicated by luminescence, paleomagnetic, and U-series data and stratigraphy. Aggradational, finely bedded reddish mud, clay, and silt are underlain and overlain by cross-bedded to plane-bedded fine sand and silt. That sequence is commonly disconformably overlain by up to 15 m of coarse sand, rounded exotic gravel, and angular, locally derived gravel. Luminescence dates on the fine sediments range from ca. 40 ka to 70 ka, considering collective uncertainties. A section of fine grained sediments over a vertical range of 15 m shows normal polarity magnetization and little apparent secular variation beyond dispersion that can be explained by com paction. Aggradation on large local tributaries such as Las Vegas Wash appears to have been coeval with that of the Colorado River. The upper limits of erosional rem nants of the sequence define a steeper grade above the historical river, and these late Pleistocene deposits are greater than 100 m above the modern river north of 35??N. Ter race gravels inset below the upper limit of the aggradational sequence yield 230Th dates that range from ca. 32 ka to 60 ka and indicate that degradation of the river system in this area closely followed aggradation. The thick sequence of rhythmically bedded mud and silt possibly indicates set tings that were ponded laterally between valley slopes and levees of the aggrading river. Potential driving mechanisms for such aggradation and degradation include sediment-yield response to climate change, drought, fire, vegetation-ecosystem dynam ics, glaciation, paleofloods, groundwater discharge, and building and destruction of natural dams produced by volcanism and landslides. ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2019

A Bayesian life-cycle model to estimate escapement at maximum sustained yield in salmon based on limited information

Life-cycle models combine several strengths for estimating population parameters and biological reference points of harvested species and are particularly useful for those exhibiting distinct habitat shifts and experiencing contrasting environments. Unfortunately, time series data are often limited to counts of adult abundance and harvest. By incorporating data from other populations and by dynamically linking the life-history stages, Bayesian life-cycle models can be used to estimate stage-specific productivities and capacities as well as abundance of breeders that produce maximum sustained yield (MSY). Using coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) as our case study, we show that incorporating information on marine survival variability from nearby populations can improve model estimates and affect management parameters such as escapement at MSY. We further show that the expected long-term average yield of a fishery managed for a spawner escapement target that produces MSY strongly depends on the average marine survival. Our results illustrate the usefulness of incorporating information from other sources and highlight the importance of accounting for variation in marine survival when making inferences about the management of Pacific salmon.

Washington↗
USGS2012

Semi-discrete biomass dynamic modeling: an improved approach for assessing fish stock responses to pulsed harvest events

Continuous harvest over an annual period is a common assumption of continuous biomass dynamics models (CBDMs); however, fish are frequently harvested in a discrete manner. We developed semidiscrete biomass dynamics models (SDBDMs) that allow discrete harvest events and evaluated differences between CBDMs and SDBDMs using an equilibrium yield analysis with varying levels of fishing mortality ( F ). Equilibrium fishery yields for CBDMs and SDBDMS were similar at low fishing mortalities and diverged as F approached and exceeded maximum sustained yield ( F MSY ). Discrete harvest resulted in lower equilibrium yields at high levels of F relative to continuous harvest. The effect of applying harvest continuously when it was in fact discrete was evaluated by fitting CBDMs and SDBDMs to time series data generated from a hypothetical fish stock undergoing discrete harvest and evaluating parameter estimates bias. Violating the assumption of continuous harvest resulted in biased parameter estimates for CBDM while SDBDM parameter estimates were unbiased. Biased parameter estimates resulted in biased biological reference points derived from CBDMs. Semidiscrete BDMs outperformed continuous BDMs and should be used when harvest is discrete, when the time and magnitude of harvest are known, and when F is greater than F MSY .

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2009

Advancing landscape change research through the incorporation of Inupiaq knowledge

Indigenous knowledge is a valuable but under-used source of information relevant to landscape change research. We interviewed I&ntilde;upiat elders, hunters, and other knowledge-holders in the villages of Barrow and Atqasuk on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska to gain further insight into the processes governing the ubiquitous lakes and the dynamics of landscape change in this region of continuous permafrost. The interviews provided a suite of information related to lakes and associated drained lake basins, as well as knowledge on landforms, environmental change, human events, and other phenomena. We were able to corroborate many observations independently and verify the timing of several large and significant lake drainage events using either aerial photography or remotely sensed time series. Data collected have been incorporated into a geodatabase to develop a multi-layer Geographic Information System that will be useful for local and scientific communities. This research demonstrates that indigenous knowledge can reveal a new understanding of landscape changes on the Arctic Coastal Plain in general and on lake processes in particular. We advocate ongoing, community-oriented research throughout the Arctic as a means of assessing and responding to the consequences of rapid environmental change.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Status of rainbow smelt in U.S. waters of Lake Ontario, 2011

Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax are the second most abundant pelagic prey fish in Lake Ontario. The abundance and weight indices for Lake Ontario age-1 and older rainbow smelt declined in 2011 and represented a 64% and 54% decrease respectively from 2010 levels. Length frequency-based age analysis indicated that age-1 rainbow smelt constituted 44% of the estimated population however age 1 abundance was 72% lower than age 1 abundance in 2010 and was 50% lower than the 10 year average age 1 abundance. Proportionally, large rainbow smelt (≥150 mm), were more common in 2011, making up approximately 7% of the population, substantially higher than the 10 year average of 2%. Based on the most recent time series data, rainbow smelt abundance peaks appear to follow a 4-5 year cycle.

New York↗