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USGS2020

Movement ecology and habitat use differences in Black Scoters wintering along the Atlantic coast

For migratory species such as Black Scoters ( Melanitta americana ) whose range encompasses a variety of habitats, it is especially important to obtain habitat use information across the species’ range to better understand anthropogenic threats, e.g., marine development and climate change. The objective of our study was to investigate the winter movement patterns and habitat use of Black Scoters in the Atlantic Ocean by quantifying the following key movement indices: number of wintering sites, arrival and departure dates to and from the wintering grounds, days at a wintering site, area of a wintering site, distance between wintering sites, and differences in habitat features of wintering sites. We also tested if winter movement patterns varied by sex or along a latitudinal gradient. To quantify winter movement patterns of Black Scoters, we used satellite telemetry data from 2009 to 2012 (n = 29 tagged females and 15 males for a total of 66 winter seasons, 38 female winter seasons, 28 male winter seasons). Our results indicated that the average wintering site area and distance between wintering sites varied with latitude. Wintering sites located at southern latitudes were larger and further apart than wintering sites located at more northern latitudes. Additionally, wintering sites varied in bathymetry, distance to shore, and the slope of the ocean floor at different latitudes; northern wintering sites were in deeper waters, closer to shore, and on steeper slopes than southern wintering sites. Our results suggest that habitat use may differ by latitude, indicating that habitats used in northern locations may not be representative of habitats used in more southern wintering areas. Understanding variation of habitat use along a latitudinal gradient will enable managers to focus sampling effort for Black Scoter abundance and distribution along the Atlantic coast and provide insight on the wintering ecology and movement of Black Scoters.

Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maryland,↗

USGS2019

Spatially-structured statistical network models for landscape genetics

A basic understanding of how the landscape impedes, or creates resistance to, the dispersal of organisms and hence gene flow is paramount for successful conservation science and management. Spatially structured ecological networks are often used to represent spatial landscape‐genetic relationships, where nodes represent individuals or populations and resistance to movement is represented using non‐binary edge weights. Weights are typically assigned or estimated by the user, rather than observed, and validating such weights is challenging. We provide a synthesis of current methods used to estimate edge weights and an overview of common model types, stressing the advantages and disadvantages of each approach and their ability to model landscape‐genetic data. We further explore a set of spatial‐statistical methods that provide ecologists with alternative approaches for modeling spatially explicit processes that may affect genetic structure. This includes an overview of spatial autoregressive models, with a particular focus on how correlation and partial correlation are used to represent neighborhood structure with the inverse of the covariance matrix (i.e., precision matrix). We then demonstrate how to model resistance by specifying an appropriate statistical model on the nodes, conditioned on the edge weights, through the precision matrix. This integration of network ecology and spatial statistics provides a practical analytical framework for landscape‐genetic studies. The results can be used to make statistical inferences about the relative importance of individual landscape characteristics, such as the vegetative cover, hillslope, or the presence of roads or rivers, on gene flow. In addition, the R code we include allows readers to explore landscape‐genetic structure in their own datasets, which will potentially provide new insights into the evolutionary processes that generated ecological networks, as well as valuable information about the optimal characteristics of conservation corridors.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2026

Visioning ecologically diverse and harmonious futures of Korea in Good Anthropocene

1.The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), a buffer between North and South Korea, holds profound historical, cultural and ecological significance, as well as exceptional potential for conservation and transformation. This study explores ecologically diverse and peaceful futures for the Korean Peninsula by envisioning the DMZ as a landscape for harmonious human–nature co-existence. 2.Using the Nature Futures Framework ( NFF ) and the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes ( SoGA ) approach, we co-developed four ‘Living in Harmony with Nature’ visions that reflect diverse values and meanings of nature for sustainable and well-being oriented futures in Korea. 3.These visions emphasize balancing human activities with ecological integrity, reimagining the DMZ as a space for peace, restoration and shared stewardship. They express citizens' perspectives on aspirational and inclusive futures, highlighting existing initiatives as levers for change and intersectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration as key enabling conditions. 4.This visioning process demonstrates the role of the science-policy-society interface, diverse stakeholder engagement and integration of history, culture and social cohesion. This paper reflects on the lessons from this process and discusses implications for future scenario development—particularly how a whole-of-society approach can help identify policy options and societal transformations that advance nature–people-positive futures in Korea and beyond.

Korean Peninsula↗

USGS2019

Field-level characteristics influence wild bee functional guilds on public lands managed for conservation

Throughout the Midwestern US, many public lands set aside for conservation engage in management activities (e.g., agriculture) that may act as stressors on wild bee populations. Several studies have investigated how wild bees respond to large-scale agriculture production; however, there has been limited assessment of how wild bees may be impacted by agricultural activity on public lands or how local variables may influence bee communities in these same areas. In this study, we assessed the abundance and richness of wild bee floral and nesting guilds at 30 agricultural field margins located on five Conservation Areas in Missouri. Generally, regardless of guild, bee abundance and richness was greater in field margins with more floral diversity and taller vegetation. Bee guilds responded negatively to agricultural production in Conservation Areas with fewer soil- and cavity-nesting bees collected in margins adjacent to annually cropped fields. Although fewer diet specialists were collected, specialist bee abundance and richness was greater in margins near fields that were uncropped (i.e., vegetated, but not row-cropped) during the previous year. Overall, the percentage of trees and shrubs within 800 m of study fields (i.e., “woodland”) was negatively associated with abundance and richness of bees, but specifically, reduced richness of soil-nesters and diet specialists. Our findings indicate agricultural management activities on public lands may lead to decreased abundance and richness of wild bee guilds. If public lands are to be managed for species diversity, including wild bees, maintaining diverse plant communities with taller vegetation (>100 cm) near cultivated fields and/or modifying agricultural production practices on public lands may greatly improve the conservation of local bee communities.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2024

Imperiled Great Basin terminal lakes: Synthesizing ecological and hydrological science gaps and research needs for waterbird conservation

Terminal lakes are declining globally because of human water demands, drought, and climate change. Through literature synthesis and feedback from the resource and conservation community, we review the state of research for terminal lakes in the Great Basin of the United States, which support millions of waterbirds annually, to prioritize ecological and hydrologic information needs. From an ecological perspective, research priorities include measuring the underlying differences in waterbird resource selection and distribution, migratory connectivity, abiotic factors that interact with prey densities to affect prey availability, and waterbird fitness or demography. Integrated links between water availability, water quality, and food webs are lacking in the literature. Scarce water availability data hinder the current knowledge of water extraction and evapotranspiration rates. Research that can address these priorities would help advance our understanding of how the Great Basin terminal lakes function as an interrelated system and support conservation efforts to reverse the decline of these critical lakes.

California, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2021

Resilience to fire and resistance to annual grass invasion in sagebrush ecosystems of US National Parks

Western North American sagebrush shrublands and steppe face accelerating risks from fire-driven feedback loops that transition these ecosystems into self-reinforcing states dominated by invasive annual grasses. In response, sagebrush conservation decision-making is increasingly done through the lens of resilience to fire and annual grass invasion resistance. Operationalizing resilience and resistance concepts requires place-based understanding of resilience and resistance variation among landscapes over time. Place-based insights allow for landscape prioritization in targeted areas of significance such as protected-area sagebrush ecosystems that exhibit inherently low resilience and are therefore at high risk of loss. We used a multi-scale approach to evaluate sagebrush resiliency and strategic planning across 1) the US National Park system, 2) a regional suite of five parks, and 3) for two specific park case studies. First, we summarized broad patterns of relative resilience to fire and resistance to annual grass invasion across all parks with sagebrush ecosystems. We found that national parks represented ~11% of US protected-area sagebrush ecosystems and reflected a similar low-resilience bias that occurs across the biome, broadly. Climate change is likely to shift both low- and high-resilience park sagebrush ecosystems towards moderate resiliency, creating new opportunities and constraints for park conservation. Approximately seventy park units include at least some sagebrush shrublands or steppe, but we identified 40 parks with substantial amounts (>20% of park area) that can be included in an agency-wide conservation strategy. Second, we examined detailed patterns of resilience and resistance, fire history and fire risk, cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) invasion, and sagebrush shrub ( Artemisia spp.) persistence in five national park units in Columbia Basin and Snake River Plain sagebrush steppe, contextualized by the broader summary. In these five parks, fire frequency and size increased in recent decades. Cheatgrass invasion and sagebrush persistence correlated strongly with resilience, burn frequency (0–3 fires since ~1940), and burn probability, but with important variation, in part mediated by local-scale topography. Third, we used these insights to assemble strategic sagebrush ecosystem fire protection mapping scenarios in two additional parks – Lava Beds National Monument and Great Basin National Park. Readily available and periodically updated geospatial data including soil surveys, fire histories, vegetation inventories, and long-term monitoring support resiliency-based adaptive management through tactical planning of pre-fire protection, post-fire restoration, and triage. Our assessment establishes the precarious importance of the US national park system to sagebrush ecosystem conservation and an operational strategy for place-based and science-supported conservation.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗

USGS2023

Secondary forest within a timber plantation concession in Borneo contributes to a diverse mammal assemblage

Commercial tree plantations of fast-growing species have become increasingly important in Southeast Asia to meet global demand for wood and wood fiber products. There is a growing need to understand more about their value for wildlife and how they can be managed for biodiversity. We evaluated the effects of landscape attributes on mammal communities in a timber concession consisting of 83 % secondary forest and 17 % tree plantations in northern Sabah, Malaysia. Using camera traps, we compared mammalian species assemblages of secondary forest and commercial tree plantation stands and identified habitat predictors associated with total mammal species detections and species richness in the landscape mosaic. We used 87 camera stations deployed for 23 days across two major land-use types: 62 sites in secondary forest (previously logged natural forest) and 25 sites in tree plantations. We evaluated variation in species richness in these two major land-use categories and assessed the effects of natural and anthropogenic predictors on variation in total mammal detections and species richness. We detected at least 23 large and medium-sized mammal species over 2035 trap nights. Fourteen of those species were classified as threatened or near-threatened by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Rarefaction did not reveal differences in mammal species richness or diversity between camera sites placed in tree plantations and secondary forests, likely because most camera sites in tree plantations were close to secondary forest and comprised < 30 % of all sites. However, generalized linear models indicated lower mammal diversity as proportions of tree plantation and proximity to human settlements increased. Total mammal records, including those of threatened mammals, increased with greater proportions of secondary forest. Retention of larger tracts of secondary forest around plantation areas appears to be important to maintain mammalian species richness and contributes to the conservation value of commercial timber plantations. These findings may assist in the management of mammals of conservation concern and implementation of adaptive management plans to enhance biodiversity conservation in commercial plantations.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2023

Interactions among rainfall, fire, forbs and non-native grasses predict occupancy dynamics for the endangered Pacific pocket mouse (Perognathus longimembris pacificus) in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem

It is important to understand species-habitat relationships to implement effective adaptive management for rare species. However, it can be challenging to assess habitat associations and their relationships to abiotic stressors in dynamic habitats without the insights that can be gained from long-term monitoring. We report results from the first six years of extensive track tube monitoring of the largest two of three remaining extant populations of federally endangered Pacific pocket mouse ( Perognathus longimembris pacificus ) in a coastal Mediterranean-type ecosystem on Marine Corps Base, Camp Pendleton in southern California, USA. We used dynamic occupancy and structural equation modeling to assess potential drivers of population trends that included habitat, fire history, rainfall, disturbance, and the presence of other small mammals. We found that the variables that best predicted mouse occupancy were moderate to high forb and perennial herb cover (40–80%), and moderate to high open ground (20–70%) and low non-native grass cover (<20%), Non-native grass cover (>20%) was also a strong predictor of lower PPM colonization and increased extinction probabilities, with the extent of non-native grass cover being strongly influenced by annual rainfall and recency of fire. Our study adds to the growing literature on effects of invasive annual grasses on native species in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. We suggest that habitat management could be based upon promotion of open forb and perennial herb dominated habitats with reduction of non-native grasses by prescribed fire and other methods. These types of spatial and temporal monitoring programs can support land managers by creating a monitoring and management feedback loop. They can reveal landscape and environmental variables associated with species persistence, inform habitat management goals, and help managers to assess the success of management actions on populations of conservation concern.

California↗

USGS2014

Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

Environmental Conservation↗

USGS2020

Conservation reliance of a threatened snake on rice agriculture

Conservation-reliant species require perpetual management by humans to persist. But do species that persist largely in human-dominated landscapes actually require conditions maintained by humans? Because most extant populations of giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) inhabit the highly modified rice agricultural regions of the Sacramento Valley, we sought to evaluate whether giant gartersnakes are indeed a conservation-reliant species dependent on maintenance of rice agriculture and its infrastructure for their continued existence. Specifically, we examined the extent to which giant gartersnakes use rice fields themselves, and whether survival of adult giant gartersnakes was influenced by the amount of rice grown near their home ranges and daily movements. We found that although giant gartersnakes only use rice fields minimally and then only between mid-June and early September, their survival was lower when less rice agriculture was available near the areas they inhabited. Survival was particularly low in early spring, when giant gartersnakes emerge from brumation but rice fields are not yet flooded. The incongruity between the phenology of rice growing and giant gartersnake foraging requirements suggests that although giant gartersnakes are reliant on the rice agroecosystem, rice agriculture is likely suboptimal habitat for giant gartersnakes. Giant gartersnakes’ reliance on the rice agroecosystem challenges the notion of preservation-based conservation, but provides opportunities for win-win scenarios benefitting both rice farmers and giant gartersnakes. Our study highlights that in addition to land use, the timing of land management might be crucial for conservation-reliant species.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2024

Integrating ecological value and charismatic species habitats to prioritize habitats for conservation: A case study from Greater Yellowstone

Expanding human pressure has reduced natural habitats globally and motivated strategies to conserve remaining natural habitats. Decisions about conservation on private lands, however, are typically made by local stakeholders who are motivated by the elements of nature they most highly value. Thus, national prioritization for conservation should be complemented by local analysis of species or habitats that most influence local landowner decisions. We demonstrate within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem how quantitative mapping of wildlife species that are highly valued by local residents can be integrated with indices of ecosystem integrity to prioritize private lands for conservation. We found that natural vegetation cover (NVC) comprised 81% of the private lands. Some watersheds have lost 6% of NVC since 2001 and developed lands now cover >40% of their areas. Locations high in ecological value, elk habitat, and grizzly habitat occurred in different biophysical settings. Consequently, only 2% of the NVC supports high levels of all three biodiversity measures and 26% of this area was within conservation easements. The remaining areas of high biodiversity value that are unprotected are priorities for conservation. We suggest that national-scale conservation planning will be most effective on private lands if additional within-ecoregion analyses are done on the elements of biodiversity that are most valued by local people.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2026

The riverine legacy of reservoirs

Reservoirs exposed to similar environmental drivers frequently exhibit markedly different ecological responses. Existing reservoir concepts describe many aspects of impounded rivers, but none directly explains why environmental drivers produce contrasting ecological responses among reservoirs. I propose riverine legacy , defined as the enduring ecological characteristics that reservoirs inherit from the rivers they impound. Riverine legacy arises because impoundment transforms river systems without completely erasing their spatial, environmental, ecological, and trophic organization. Riverine legacy consists of five interconnected dimensions through which inherited characteristics interact with contemporary environmental drivers to generate ecological responses at population, community, and ecosystem levels. I provide three examples to illustrate how riverine legacy may explain contrasting responses to biological invasions, longitudinal variation in community organization, and differences in ecological transformation among impounded rivers. The concept yields six testable predictions concerning ecological organization, ecosystem responsiveness, fisheries, recovery trajectories, and conservation opportunities across reservoir networks. Riverine legacy is not proposed as a metric but as a concept that generates testable hypotheses about how inherited riverine characteristics influence contemporary ecological responses. Recognizing that reservoirs retain enduring ecological characteristics inherited from their riverine origins provides a foundation for improving ecological interpretation, conservation planning, monitoring, management, and restoration across impounded river systems.

Frontiers in Freshwater Science↗

USGS2022

Observed and forecasted changes in land use by polar bears in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, 1985–2040

Monitoring changes in the distribution of large carnivores is important for managing human safety and supporting conservation. Throughout much of their range, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are increasingly using terrestrial habitats in response to Arctic sea ice decline. Their increased presence in coastal areas has implications for bear-human conflict, inter-species interactions, and polar bear health and survival. We examined observed trends in land use over three decades by polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) where bears have traditionally spent most of the year on the sea ice. Using data from 408 adult females fitted with satellite radio-collars, we examined trends in the annual proportion of bears coming onshore (hereafter referred to as “percent of bears”) during the summer for ≥21 days, arrival and departure dates, duration spent onshore and relationships with sea ice metrics. We then estimated future land use through 2040 by extrapolating trends and by combining observed relationships between land use and sea ice with projections of future sea ice from an ensemble of earth system models. The observed percent of bears summering onshore and their duration onshore was correlated with the percent of open water that occurred within their population’s range between July and October. As sea ice declined, the percent of bears summering onshore increased from ~5 to 30% in the SB and ~10 to 50% in the CS and duration onshore increased by >30 days to 60–70 days in both populations. Using a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and adjustments for faster than forecasted sea ice loss we estimated that 50-62% of SB and 79-88% of CS bears will spend 90–108 and 110–126 days onshore during summer in the SB and CS, respectively, by 2040. Sea ice projections varied little between greenhouse gas emission scenarios prior to 2040 but diverged thereafter. Observed and forecasted increases in polar bear land occupancy puts more bears in proximity to human activities and settlements for longer durations while extending the lack of access to their primary prey. Because human conflict is one of the primary factors affecting the conservation of large carnivores worldwide, mitigation of bear-human interactions on land will be an increasingly important component of polar bear conservation.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Asynchronous movement patterns between breeding and stopover locations in a long-distance migratory songbird

The species-specific migratory patterns and strategies of many songbirds remain unknown or understudied, as research in animal ecology is biased toward the breeding period, with the fewest studies on the migratory period across taxa. Identifying large-scale spatiotemporal migratory patterns is challenging, as individuals within a species may vary in their migratory behavior and strategies. The Yellow Warbler ( Setophaga petechia ) is a Nearctic-Neotropical migrant that is relatively well studied during the breeding season, but its species-wide migratory patterns remain understudied. Our aim in studying Yellow Warbler movement ecology was to characterize temporal migration patterns during fall migration. We sought to determine the temporal migration pattern among breeding locations, as determined by the hydrogen stable isotope values in feather samples collected at disjunct (~2000 km) stopover sites in the Gulf of Maine (n = 50) and the Gulf of Mexico (n = 150). We used a similarity matrix to group individuals into a geographic cluster by breeding location, which was then used as the response variable in a modeling analysis. Our results provide evidence that Yellow Warblers exhibit an asynchronous, type 1 temporal migration pattern with southern breeding populations initiating migration prior to northern populations. Using hydrogen isotopes, we identified the temporal migration patterns between geographic clusters, representing an individual’s breeding location, and stopover sites along the Gulf of Maine and Gulf of Mexico, which fills a gap in understanding Yellow Warbler migration ecology.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

USGS2019

Effects of climate change on habitat and connectivity for populations of a vulnerable, endemic salamander in Iran

Habitat loss and fragmentation are among the biggest threats to amphibian populations and anthropogenic climate change may exacerbate these. The response of Iran's amphibians to climate change is uncertain and yet making an accurate prediction of how the species will respond is critical for conservation. We assessed how expected future climate scenarios before the years 2050 and 2070 might influence the geographic distribution and habitat connectivity of the Lorestan Mountain Newt (Neurergus kaiseri). We examined presence data (2010–2018) of the species according to environmental and anthropogenic factors, and created an ensemble model of habitat suitability based on eight species distribution models (SDMs). Then, we used the concept of circuit theory to estimate potential linkages between the habitat patches. We applied the ensemble calibrated models and quantified spatial connectivity to assess the influence of climate change on the species range for the years 2050 and 2070 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of three general circulation models (GCMs). Models using current climate predicted that 6.8% of the 267,609 km2 study area has suitable conditions for the species, but only about 7% of these climatically suitable landscapes are covered by conservation areas. Temperature and precipitation-related climatic variables made the largest contribution to the distribution model. Under projected climate conditions, we found a decline of 56–98% of the suitable habitat and predicted a potential for distributional shifts towards higher elevations by 2050 and 2070. Although there is relatively good connectivity between many habitat patches today, models predict that suitable areas available to the newt will become increasingly fragmented under projected climate change scenarios. Our findings support the hypothesis that projected climatic shifts will negatively influence suitable habitats of amphibians and likely cause upward shifts in elevation in range of some species. Identifying potentially suitable habitats and important linkages between habitat patches under different climate scenarios are crucial steps in conservation planning for the Lorestan Mountain Newt.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2026

Carcass size and ground substrate drive detection rates of avian carcasses by human surveyors and a dog team

Accurate avian mortality estimates are essential for understanding anthropogenic impacts to bird populations and informing conservation strategies. Carcass surveys are commonly conducted by human surveyors or by detection dogs, but the factors influencing surveyor detection abilities have not been fully explored. In this study, we conducted two years of detection trials in the semi-arid high desert of southern New Mexico, USA, testing 27 human surveyors and one conservation detection dog across 1096 trials with 238 carcasses representing 50 avian species. We directly compared detection abilities between surveyor types (human and dog) and identified key factors influencing detection probabilities. The conservation detection dog exhibited a significantly higher detection probability (mean = 0.87) than human surveyors (mean = 0.49, individuals ranged 0.25–0.71), consistent with previous studies. Detection probabilities for both surveyor types were influenced by carcass size and ground substrate; detection probability was higher for larger carcasses and areas with lower vegetative complexity. We discuss our results in the context of common tradeoffs faced by managers in designing carcass surveys and how guidance may vary under different scenarios. Broadly, our study provides valuable insight that can enhance wildlife mortality monitoring, ensuring more accurate mortality estimates to inform management and conservation efforts.

New Mexico↗

USGS2019

Factors promoting the recolonization of Oahu, Hawaii, by Bristle-thighed Curlews

Suitable habitat for Arctic-breeding migratory shorebirds is decreasing at their traditional wintering islands and atolls in the Central Pacific Flyway (i.e., Oceania) due to habitat degradation, reclamation, and sea-level rise. To maintain the size and resiliency of their populations, migratory shorebirds will need to expand their winter ranges by either colonizing new sites or recolonizing old sites from which they were extirpated. Bristle-thighed Curlews (Numenius tahitiensis) are long-distance migratory shorebirds that breed only in Alaska and winter across a vast region of the Central Pacific, typically on remote, unpopulated islands and atolls. Historically, Bristle-thighed Curlews were considered uncommon transients on the main Hawaiian Islands, but in the mid-1990s, curlews became regular visitors to Oahu and subsequently began wintering at the James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge on Oahu Island in Hawaii. Curlew numbers at this site grew steadily from <5 birds in the mid-1990s to an estimated 126 winter residents (95%CI 108–147) in 2013–2014. Timing of the recolonization event coincided with the establishment of a fenced pond complex that was managed for endangered waterbirds by maintaining areas of shallow water and low vegetation. High rates of apparent annual survival exhibited by adults and subadults (0.86–0.95) confirmed the suitability of the Refuge to curlews. Our results suggest that curlews in Oceania can naturally recolonize wintering islands, a trait that may be key to the survival of this species of conservation concern in an era of rising sea levels.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Water balance as an indicator of natural resource condition: Case studies from Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve

Managing climate impacts to natural resources in protected areas can be hampered by lack of monitoring data, poor understanding of natural resource responses to climate, or lack of timely condition assessments that can inform management actions. Here we demonstrate the utility of water balance as a tool for understanding natural resource responses to climate by developing case studies focused on stream flow, vegetation production, and wildfire ignition at Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GSDNP), U.S.A. The efficacy of water balance to predict these responses stems from the explicit integration of climate with site conditions that modify the effects of climate. This in turn results in estimates of water availability, water use, and water need that are proximal drivers of aquatic and terrestrial natural resource conditions. The water balance model successfully forecasted stream flow (r 2 = 0.69, P < 0.001); determined the critical water needs for maintaining annual vegetation production in different vegetation types spanning a large environmental gradient (r 2 = 0.18–0.71); and predicted proportion of historic wildfire ignitions in forest (r 2 = 0.96–0.99) and non-forest (r 2 = 0.96–0.97) vegetation types. Collectively, these case studies demonstrate practical approaches to translate climate data into assessments of natural resource condition that inform long-term planning and near-term strategic actions needed for conservation of protected areas.

Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve↗