Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Climate Dynamics”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Multiple coping strategies maintain stability of a small mammal population in a resource-restricted environment

In semi-arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom-up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource-restricted environments. Using a 21-year biannual capture–recapture dataset (1993 to 2014), we examined the impacts of climatic factors on the population dynamics of the brush mouse ( Peromyscus boylii ) in semi-arid oak woodland of coastal-central California. We applied Pradel's temporal symmetry model to estimate capture probability ( p ), apparent survival ( φ ), recruitment ( f ), and realized population growth rate ( λ ) of the brush mouse and examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño on these demographic parameters. The population was stable during the study period with a monthly realized population growth rate of 0.993 ± SE 0.032, but growth varied over time from 0.680 ± 0.054 to 1.450 ± 0.083. Monthly survival estimates averaged 0.789 ± 0.005 and monthly recruitment estimates averaged 0.175 ± 0.038. Survival probability and realized population growth rate were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, recruitment was negatively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature. Brush mice maintained their population through multiple coping strategies, with high recruitment during warmer and drier periods and higher survival during cooler and wetter conditions. Although climatic change in coastal-central California will likely favor recruitment over survival, varying strategies may serve as a mechanism by which brush mice maintain resilience in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that rainfall and temperature are both important drivers of brush mouse population dynamics and will play a significant role in predicting the future viability of brush mice under a changing climate.

California↗
USGS2020

Climate sensitivity of water use by riparian woodlands at landscape scales

Semi‐arid riparian woodlands face threats from increasing extractive water demand and climate change in dryland landscapes worldwide. Improved landscape‐scale understanding of riparian woodland water use (evapotranspiration, ET) and its sensitivity to climate variables is needed to strategically manage water resources, as well as to create successful ecosystem conservation and restoration plans for potential climate futures. In this work, we assess the spatial and temporal variability of Cottonwood ( Populus fremontii )‐Willow ( Salix gooddingii ) riparian gallery woodland ET and its relationships to vegetation structure and climate variables for 80 km of the San Pedro River corridor in southeastern Arizona, USA, between 2014 and 2019. We use a novel combination of publicly available remote sensing, climate and hydrological datasets: cloud‐based Landsat thermal remote sensing data products for ET (Google Earth Engine EEFlux), Landsat multispectral imagery and field data‐based calibrations to vegetation structure (leaf‐area index, LAI), and open‐source climate and hydrological data. We show that at landscape scales, daily ET rates (6–10 mm day −1 ) and growing season ET totals (400–1,400 mm) matched rates of published field data, and modelled reach‐scale average LAI (0.80–1.70) matched lower ranges of published field data. Over 6 years, the spatial variability of total growing season ET (CV = 0.18) exceeded that of temporal variability (CV = 0.10), indicating the importance of reach‐scale vegetation and hydrological conditions for controlling ET dynamics. Responses of ET to climate differed between perennial and intermittent‐flow stream reaches. At perennial‐flow reaches, ET correlated significantly with temperature, whilst at intermittent‐flow sites ET correlated significantly with rainfall and stream discharge. Amongst reaches studied in detail, we found positive but differing logarithmic relationships between LAI and ET. By documenting patterns of high spatial variability of ET at basin scales, these results underscore the importance of accurately accounting for differences in woodland vegetation structure and hydrological conditions for assessing water‐use requirements. Results also suggest that the climate sensitivity of ET may be used as a remote indicator of subsurface water resources relative to vegetation demand, and an indicator for informing conservation management priorities.

Arizona↗
USGS2021

Dynamic landscapes in northwestern North America structured populations of wolverines (Gulo gulo)

Cyclic climatic and glacial fluctuations of the Late Quaternary produced a dynamic biogeographic history for high latitudes. To refine our understanding of this history in northwestern North America, we explored geographic structure in a wide-ranging carnivore, the wolverine ( Gulo gulo ). We examined genetic variation in populations across mainland Alaska, coastal Southeast Alaska, and mainland western Canada using nuclear microsatellite genotypes and sequence data from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and Cytochrome b ( Cytb ) gene. Data from maternally inherited mtDNA reflect stable populations in Northwest Alaska, suggesting the region harbored wolverine populations since at least the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 Kya), consistent with their persistence in the fossil record of Beringia. Populations in Southeast Alaska are characterized by minimal divergence, with no genetic signature of long-term refugial persistence (consistent with the lack of pre-Holocene fossil records there). The Kenai Peninsula population exhibits mixed signatures depending on marker type: mtDNA data indicate stability (i.e., historical persistence) and include a private haplotype, whereas biparentally inherited microsatellites exhibit relatively low variation and a lack of private alleles consistent with a more recent Holocene colonization of the peninsula. Our genetic work is largely consistent with the early 20 th century taxonomic hypothesis that wolverines on the Kenai Peninsula belong to a distinct subspecies. Our finding of significant genetic differentiation of wolverines inhabiting the Kenai Peninsula, coupled with the peninsula’s burgeoning human population and the wolverine’s known sensitivity to anthropogenic impacts, provides valuable foundational data that can be used to inform conservation and management prescriptions for wolverines inhabiting these landscapes.

Alaska, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, N↗
USGS2013

An integrated model of environmental effects on growth, carbohydrate balance, and mortality of Pinus ponderosa forests in the southern Rocky Mountains

Climate-induced tree mortality is an increasing concern for forest managers around the world. We used a coupled hydrologic and ecosystem carbon cycling model to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on productivity and survival of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ). Model predictions were evaluated using observations of productivity and survival for three ponderosa pine stands located across an 800 m elevation gradient in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, during a 10-year period that ended in a severe drought and extensive tree mortality at the lowest elevation site. We demonstrate the utility of a relatively simple representation of declines in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) as an approach for estimating patterns of ponderosa pine vulnerability to drought and the likelihood of survival along an elevation gradient. We assess the sensitivity of simulated net primary production, NSC storage dynamics, and mortality to site climate and soil characteristics as well as uncertainty in the allocation of carbon to the NSC pool. For a fairly wide set of assumptions, the model estimates captured elevational gradients and temporal patterns in growth and biomass. Model results that best predict mortality risk also yield productivity, leaf area, and biomass estimates that are qualitatively consistent with observations across the sites. Using this constrained set of parameters, we found that productivity and likelihood of survival were equally dependent on elevation-driven variation in temperature and precipitation. Our results demonstrate the potential for a coupled hydrology-ecosystem carbon cycling model that includes a simple model of NSC dynamics to predict drought-related mortality. Given that increases in temperature and in the frequency and severity of drought are predicted for a broad range of ponderosa pine and other western North America conifer forest habitats, the model potentially has broad utility for assessing ecosystem vulnerabilities.

Jemez Mountains, Rocky Mountains↗
USGS2022

The influence of soil development on the depth distribution and structure of soil microbial communities.

Although it has been shown that the interaction of climate and time shape the dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM) storage and preservation in soil, the role of soil microbial communities in this dynamic remains unclear. Microbial communities are present throughout soil profiles and likely play critical roles in SOM and nutrient cycling, however the influence of other factors such as soil development (i.e., age) and the composition SOM on microbial community variation with depth has yet to be quantified. Improving our understanding of the relationship between soil development, soil depth, and microbial communities may provide insight to the critical role they play in cycling and preservation of SOM, as well as more mechanistic predictions of the response of soil communities to change, such as landscape-scale changes in available moisture or temperature regimes. Here we compare soils spanning a soil age by climate gradient (i.e., climo-chronosequence) to better understand the mechanisms which influence soil microbial community structure and the molecular composition of SOM. While we observed little depth-dependence in metrics of microbial community structure (i.e., composition, diversity, dissimilarity) across the range of soil development under a wetter climate, we found significant depth-dependent changes in community metrics under a drier climate, which became more pronounced as soils became older. This shift in bacterial and archaeal community structure and diversity is most apparent below a clay-rich argillic horizon formed in the older, drier soils. The molecular composition of SOM as measured by high resolution mass spectrometry (i.e., FTICR MS) also exhibited similar shifts in composition with soil depth and age. Our results highlight how soil moisture shapes the interaction of soil development, SOM, and microbial community composition. Differences in the moisture regime between our two study sites drives differences in biogeochemical depth gradients and subsequent variation in soil microbes and SOM. This suggests that knowledge of not just the pedogenic trajectory of soil development, but also the spatial position relative to distinct pedogenic features, are important for explaining variations in the depth-dependencies of microbial communities and associated SOM.

California↗
USGS2021

Warming induces divergent stomatal dynamics in co-occurring boreal trees

Climate warming will alter photosynthesis and respiration not only via direct temperature effects on leaf biochemistry but also by increasing atmospheric dryness, thereby reducing stomatal conductance and suppressing photosynthesis. Our knowledge on how climate warming affects these processes is mainly derived from seedlings grown under highly controlled conditions. However, little is known regarding temperature responses of trees growing under field settings. We exposed mature tamarack and black spruce trees growing in a peatland ecosystem to whole-ecosystem warming of up to +9°C above ambient air temperatures in an ongoing long-term experiment (SPRUCE: Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments). Here, we report the responses of leaf gas exchange after the first two years of warming. We show that the two species exhibit divergent stomatal responses to warming and vapor pressure deficit. Warming of up to 9°C increased leaf N in both spruce and tamarack. However, higher leaf N in the warmer plots translate into higher photosynthesis in tamarack but not in spruce, with photosynthesis being more constrained by stomatal limitations in spruce than in tamarack under warm conditions. Surprisingly, dark respiration did not acclimate to warming in spruce, and thermal acclimation of respiration was only seen in tamarack once changes in leaf N were considered. Our results highlight how warming can lead to differing stomatal responses to warming in co-occurring species, with consequent effects on both vegetation carbon and water dynamics.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2014

Technical Note: Linking climate change and downed woody debris decomposition across forests of the eastern United States

Forest ecosystems play a critical role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Forest carbon (C) is stored through photosynthesis and released via decomposition and combustion. Relative to C fixation in biomass, much less is known about C depletion through decomposition of woody debris, particularly under a changing climate. It is assumed that the increased temperatures and longer growing seasons associated with projected climate change will increase the decomposition rates (i.e., more rapid C cycling) of downed woody debris (DWD); however, the magnitude of this increase has not been previously addressed. Using DWD measurements collected from a national forest inventory of the eastern United States, we show that the residence time of DWD may decrease (i.e., more rapid decomposition) by as much as 13% over the next 200 years, depending on various future climate change scenarios and forest types. Although existing dynamic global vegetation models account for the decomposition process, they typically do not include the effect of a changing climate on DWD decomposition rates. We expect that an increased understanding of decomposition rates, as presented in this current work, will be needed to adequately quantify the fate of woody detritus in future forests. Furthermore, we hope these results will lead to improved models that incorporate climate change scenarios for depicting future dead wood dynamics in addition to a traditional emphasis on live-tree demographics.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2009

Simulated dynamics of carbon stocks driven by changes in land use, management and climate in a tropical moist ecosystem of Ghana

Sub-Saharan Africa is large and diverse with regions of food insecurity and high vulnerability to climate change. This project quantifies carbon stocks and fluxes in the humid forest zone of Ghana, as a part of an assessment in West Africa. The General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was used to simulate the responses of natural and managed systems to projected scenarios of changes in climate, land use and cover, and nitrogen fertilization in the Assin district of Ghana. Model inputs included historical land use and cover data, historical climate records and projected climate changes, and national management inventories. Our results show that deforestation for crop production led to a loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) by 33% from 1900 to 2000. The results also show that the trend of carbon emissions from cropland in the 20th century will continue through the 21st century and will be increased under the projected warming and drying scenarios. Nitrogen (N) fertilization in agricultural systems could offset SOC loss by 6% with 30 kg N ha −1 year −1 and by 11% with 60 kg N ha −1 year −1 . To increase N fertilizer input would be one of the vital adaptive measures to ensure food security and maintain agricultural sustainability through the 21st century.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗
USGS2006

GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics

The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Tw o versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2?? latitude ?? 2.5?? longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1?? in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30?? becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3?? at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The co ntrol simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic. Both models have be en used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/). ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2017

Satellite-based water use dynamics using historical Landsat data (1984–2014) in the southwestern United States

Remote sensing-based field-scale evapotranspiration (ET) maps are useful for characterizing water use patterns and assessing crop performance. The relative impact of climate variability and water management decisions are better studied and quantified using historical data that are derived using a set of consistent datasets and methodology. Historical (1984–2014) Landsat-based ET maps were generated for major irrigation districts in California, i.e., Palo Verde and eight other sub-basins in parts of the middle and lower Central Valley. A total of 3396 Landsat images were processed using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model that integrates weather and remotely sensed images to estimate monthly and annual ET within the study sites over the 31 years. Model output evaluation and validation using gridded-flux data and water balance ET approaches indicated relatively good correspondence (R 2 up to 0.88, root mean square error as low as 14 mm/month) between SSEBop ET and validation datasets. In a pairwise comparison, annual variability of agro-hydrologic parameters of actual evapotranspiration ( ET a ), land surface temperature ( T s ), and runoff ( Q ) were found to be more variable than their corresponding climatic counterparts of atmospheric water demand ( ET o ), air temperature ( T a ), and precipitation ( P ), revealing process differences between regional climatic drivers and localized agro-hydrologic responses. However, only T a showed a consistent increase (up to 1.2 K) over study sites during the 31 years, whereas other climate variables such as ET o and P showed a generally neutral trend. This study demonstrates a useful application of “Big Data” science where large volumes of historical Landsat and weather datasets were used to quantify and understand the relative importance of water management and climate variability in crop water use dynamics in regards to the linkages among water management decisions, hydrologic processes and economic transactions. Irrigation district-wide ET a estimates were used to compute historical crop water use volumes and monetary equivalents of water savings for the Palo Verde Irrigation District (PVID). During the peak crop fallowing year in PVID, the water saved reached a maximum of ~ 107,200 acre-feet in 2011 with an estimated monetary payout value of $20.5 million. A significant decreasing trend in actual ET despite an increasing atmospheric demand in PVID highlights the role of management decisions in affecting local hydrologic processes. This study has importance for planning water resource allocation, managing water rights, sustaining agricultural production, and quantifying impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on water resources. With increased computational efficiency, similar studies can be conducted in other parts of the world to help policy and decision makers understand and quantify various aspects of water resources management.

Arizona, California↗
USGS2018

Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage. From these findings, we can expect that shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have uneven effects on surface water quantity. Accurate predictions regarding the effect of climate change on surface water quantity will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics including wetland storage and arrangement.

Prairie Pothole Regino↗
USGS2017

Mitigating future avian malaria threats to Hawaiian forest birds from climate change

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21 st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi ( Drepanis coccinea ) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2009

Climate alters response of an endemic island plant to removal of invasive herbivores

Islands experience higher rates of species extinction than mainland ecosystems, with biological invasions among the leading causes; they also serve as important model systems for testing ideas in basic and applied ecology. Invasive removal programs on islands are conservation efforts that can also be viewed as powerful manipulative experiments, but few data are available to evaluate their effects. We collected demographic and herbivore damage data for Castilleja mollis Pennell, an endangered plant endemic to Santa Rosa Island, California, over a 12-year period before, during, and after the implementation of control for introduced cattle, deer, and elk. We used these long-term data to explore mechanisms underlying herbivore effects, assess the results of herbivore reduction at the scales of both individual plants and populations, and determine how temporal variability in herbivory and plant demography influenced responses to herbivore removals. For individual plants, herbivore effects mediated by disturbance were greater than those of grazing. Deer and elk scraping of the ground substantially increased plant mortality and dormancy and reduced flowering and growth. Stem damage from browsing did not affect survivorship but significantly reduced plant growth and flower production. Herbivore control successfully lowered damage rates, which declined steeply between 1997 and 2000 and have remained relatively low. Castilleja mollis abundances rose sharply after 1997, suggesting a positive effect of herbivore control, but then began to decline steadily again after 2003. The recent decline appears to be driven by higher mean growing season temperatures; interestingly, not only reductions in scraping damage but a period of cooler conditions were significant in explaining increases in C. mollis populations between 1997 and 2002. Our results demonstrate strong effects of introduced herbivores on both plant demography and population dynamics and show that climate-driven variation may counteract and mask positive responses to herbivore removal. Regional mean temperatures already have risen significantly over the last 50 years, suggesting that climate change could increasingly swamp the effects of management targeted at other environmental problems. Similar interactions between climate and invasive species will play an even greater role in future management, with long-term data sets like this critical to quantifying such effects. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2026

Water table rise sustains carbon release from soils in wetland-dominated landscapes: An intact soil core study

Wetland-dominated landscapes influence carbon cycling through their potential to act as both carbon sinks and sources. Wetlands in low-relief landscapes have dynamic terrestrial-aquatic interfaces that change seasonally with variable surface water and groundwater levels. However, few studies have directly quantified dissolved organic matter (DOM) release and greenhouse gas (CO 2 , CH 4 ) fluxes from wetland soils along terrestrial-aquatic interfaces as they are seasonally re-saturated by groundwater. To estimate groundwater-mediated soil DOM and gas fluxes, we performed laboratory simulations of vertical groundwater rise on intact soil cores collected from four Delmarva bay wetlands located in the Mid-Atlantic United States. At each wetland, one core was collected from within the wetland basin and the other from the transitional zone at the basin edge. Cores were re-saturated with groundwater over 15 days and then kept fully saturated for an additional 25 days. Source groundwater, soil porewater, and exfiltrated surface water samples were collected and analyzed for pH, ORP, DOM concentration, and DOM optical indices. In both the wetland and transition zone cores, porewater DOM concentrations increased over the wet up and were sustained during prolonged saturation. Optical indices shifted from recently produced, microbial-like signatures towards aromatic, terrestrial-like signatures. Fluxes of CO 2 decreased as the duration of soil saturation increased and soil cores switched from CH 4 sinks to sources upon full soil core saturation. Results indicate that groundwater rise sustains carbon mobilization from soils in wetland-dominated landscapes, emphasizing the need to understand how climate-driven changes to groundwater dynamics may affect carbon fluxes along terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.

Delaware, Maryland↗
USGS2024

Climate-influenced phenology of larval fish transport in a large lake

Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were robust to assumed pelagic larval duration and precise location and timing of hatching. Larvae retained nearshore generally encountered more favorable temperatures and zooplankton densities compared to larvae transported offshore. Larval exploitation of nearshore resources under climate change may depend on a concomitant shift to earlier spawning and hatch times in advance of earlier offshore transport.

Lake Michigan↗
USGS2015

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2005

Albedo of the south pole on Mars determined by topographic forcing of atmosphere dynamics

The nature of the martian south polar cap has remained enigmatic since the first spacecraft observations . In particular, the presence of a perennial carbon dioxide ice cap, the formation of a vast area of black ‘slab ice’ known as the Cryptic region and the asymmetric springtime retreat of the cap have eluded explanation. Here we present observations and climate modelling that indicate the south pole of Mars is characterized by two distinct regional climates that are the result of dynamical forcing by the largest southern impact basins, Argyre and Hellas. The style of surface frost deposition is controlled by these regional climates. In the cold and stormy conditions that exist poleward of 60° S and extend 180° in longitude west from the Mountains of Mitchel ( ∼ 30° W), surface frost accumulation is dominated by precipitation. In the opposite hemisphere, the polar atmosphere is relatively warm and clear and frost accumulation is dominated by direct vapour deposition. It is the differences in these deposition styles that determine the cap albedo.

Nature↗
USGS2024

Body size and early marine conditions drive changes in Chinook salmon productivity across northern latitude ecosystems

Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate-driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species' range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the well-being of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon–environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps, we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns-per-spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock-recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity, with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in main stem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well-documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.

Global Change Biology↗