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Artificial intelligence and avian influenza: Using machine learning to enhance active surveillance for avian influenza viruses

Influenza A viruses are one of the most significant viral groups globally with substantial impacts on human, domestic animal and wildlife health. Wild birds are the natural reservoirs for these viruses, and active surveillance within wild bird populations provides critical information about viral evolution forming the basis of risk assessments and countermeasure development. Unfortunately, active surveillance programs are often resource‐intensive, and thus, enhancing programs for increased efficiency is paramount. Machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence applications, provides statistical learning procedures that can be used to gain novel insights into disease surveillance systems. We use a form of machine learning, gradient boosted trees, to estimate the probability of isolating avian influenza viruses (AIV) from wild bird samples collected during surveillance for AIVs from 2006 to 2011 in the United States. We examined several predictive features including age, sex, bird type, geographic location and matrix gene rRT‐PCR results. Our final model had high predictive power and only included geographic location and rRT‐PCR results as important predictors. The highest predicted viral isolation probability was for samples collected from the north‐central states and the south‐eastern region of Alaska. Lower rRT‐PCR Ct‐values are associated with increased likelihood of AIV isolation, and the model estimated 16% probability of isolating AIV from samples declared negative (i.e., ≥35 Ct‐value) using the rRT‐PCR screening test and standard protocols. Our model can be used to prioritize previously collected samples for isolation and rapidly evaluate AIV surveillance designs to maximize the probability of viral isolation given limited resources and laboratory capacity.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

Surgical and immediate postrelease mortality of harlequin ducks ( Histrionicus histrionicus ) implanted with abdominal radio transmitters with percutaneous antennae

Radiotelemetry is an essential tool in the study of free-ranging bird populations, and a variety of transmitter-attachment methods have been developed. A promising new method is abdominal implantation of a transmitter with a percutaneous antenna. Researchers using this technique should be concerned about and aware of mortality during surgery and during the immediate postrelease period (the 14-day period following surgery). Of 307 radio-implant surgeries performed between 1995 and 1997 in harlequin ducks ( Histrionicus histrionicus ), 7 (2.3%) deaths were documented during surgery or anesthetic recovery. Of 295 birds released with implanted radios, 10 (3.4%) died during the immediate postrelease period. Modifications to anesthetic procedures used in the 204 surgeries performed in 1996 and 1997 reduced mortality to 1.5% during surgery and 1.5% during the immediate postrelease period. Anesthetic modifications included intubation of all birds, placement of birds on an elevated platform that allowed the head to rest at a level lower than the body during surgery, placement of a heated water blanket under the birds during surgery, monitoring of body temperature, and use of electrocardiogram and Doppler ultrasound to monitor heart rates and arrhythmias. Low levels of mortality associated with abdominal implantation of radio transmitters may be unavoidable, but mortality can be minimized with adjustments to anesthetic technique.

Journal of Zoo and Wildlife Medicine

Patterns in diurnal airspace use by migratory landbirds along an ecological barrier

Migratory bird populations and survival are affected by conditions experienced during migration. While many studies and conservation and management efforts focus on terrestrial stoppage and staging areas, the aerial environment through which migrants move also is subjected to anthropogenic impacts with potential consequences to migratory movement and survival. During autumn migration, the northern coastline of Lake Superior acts as an ecological barrier for many landbirds migrating out of the boreal forests of North America. From 24 observation points, we assessed the diurnal movements of birds throughout autumn migration, 2008-2010, within a 210 km by 10 km coastal region along the northern coast of Lake Superior. Several raptor species showed patterns in airspace associated with topographic features such as proximity to the coastline and presence of ridgelines. Funneling movement, commonly used to describe the concentration of raptors along a migratory diversion line that either prevents or enhances migration progress, occurred only for Bald and Golden Eagles. This suggests a "leaky" migration funnel for most migratory raptors (e.g., migrating birds exiting the purported migration corridor). Passerines migrating during the late season showed more spatial and temporal structure in airspace distribution than raptors, including funneling and an association with airspace near the coast. We conclude that a) the diurnal use of airspace by many migratory landbirds is patterned in space and time, b) autumn count sites situated along ecological barriers substantially underestimate the number of raptors due to 'leakage' out of these concentration areas, and c) the magnitude and structure of diurnal passerine movements in airspace have been overlooked. The heavy and structured use of airspace by migratory landbirds, especially the airspace associated with anthropogenic development (e.g., buildings, towers, turbines) necessitates a shift in focus to airspace management and conservation attention for these animals.

Minnesota

Grassland bird use of Conservation Reserve Program Fields in the Great Plains

The area enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program in the Great Plains is enormous: nearly 18 million acres, or more than 7 million hectares, in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. This change in land use has had a huge influence on grassland bird populations. Many, but certainly not all, grassland species flourish in CRP habitats. Responses to the program vary not only by species, but by region, year, vegetation composition in a field, and whether or not a field was hayed or grazed. Further, the large scale of CRP has allowed researchers to begin to address other important conservation questions, such as the effect of the size of habitat patch and the influences of landscape features. Although the CRP provisions of farm bills have been beneficial to grassland birds, it is critical that gains in grassland habitat induced by the program not be offset by losses due to sodbusting.

Technical Report

California State Waters map series — Offshore of Aptos, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar bathymetric data (the undersea equivalent of satellite remote-sensing data in terrestrial mapping), acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Aptos map area is located on the Pacific Coast, on the north side of Monterey Bay, about 105 km southeast of San Francisco. The largest incorporated city in the map area, Capitola, and numerous unincorporated towns including Aptos, lie on uplifted marine terraces between the shoreline, and the northwest-trending Santa Cruz Mountains, part of California’s Coast Ranges. The map area includes the northernmost part of Santa Cruz Harbor, and Moss Landing Harbor is located about 10 km south of the map area. The offshore part of the map area is entirely within California’s State Waters and is also part of the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary. In the southern part of the map area, the Soquel Canyon State Marine Conservation Area extends eastward from the limit of California’s State Waters across Soquel Canyon. The Offshore of Aptos map area is on the western margin of North American Plate—the only continental margin in the world delineated largely by transform faults. The San Andreas Fault Zone cuts through the Santa Cruz Mountains just 3.5 km northeast of the map area. The San Gregorio Fault Zone, another major plate-boundary structure, cuts through Monterey Canyon about 13 km southwest of the map area. Ongoing deformation associated with and between these major fault zones has uplifted the Santa Cruz Mountains and formed well-developed sets of marine terraces that characterize almost the entire coastal zone of the map area. The offshore part of the map area consists of relatively flat and shallow continental shelf which is underlain by variable amounts (0 to 30 m) of upper Quaternary shelf, estuarine, and fluvial sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. Along the southern edge of the map area, the shelf is incised by the head of Soquel Canyon, a northeast-trending tributary to the west-trending Monterey Canyon. During the last sea-level lowstand (the Last Glacial Maximum [LGM], about 21,000 years ago) Soquel Creek flowed through a paleochannel across the emergent shelf into the head of Soquel Canyon. This canyon was disconnected from its onshore watershed during the post-LGM sea-level rise of about 125 m; the abandoned paleochannel was subsequently filled with marine sediment. Coastal sediment in the Offshore of Aptos map area is supplied by coastal watersheds and bluff erosion. Sediment transport in this part of the Santa Cruz littoral cell is primarily from the northwest to the southeast and terminates in the submarine Monterey Canyon. Longshore drift is impeded by jetties at Santa Cruz Harbor, resulting in high beach erosion rates east of the harbor. Sediment dredged from the harbor mouth (estimated 300,000 yds 3 /yr) is currently being used to nourish beaches directly to the east. Farther downcoast, the rapidly eroding beach at Capitola was stabilized by construction of an about 75-m-long groin. This part of central California is exposed to large North Pacific swells from the northwest throughout the year. North Pacific swell heights range from 2 to 10 meters, with larger swells occurring from October to May. During El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, winter storms track farther south than they do in normal (non-ENSO) years, thereby impacting the map area more frequently and with waves of larger heights. Bedrock exposed in coastal cliffs is relatively erosion-resistant, and significant erosional events primarily are restricted to storm-wave activity that also erodes the overlying unconsolidated marine-terrace sediments. The Offshore of Aptos map area lies within the cold-temperate biogeographic zone that is called either the “Oregonian” province or the “northern California ecoregion.” This biogeographic province is maintained by the long-term stability of the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific subtropical gyre that flows from southern British Columbia to Baja California. At its midpoint off central California, the California Current transports subarctic surface (0–500 m deep) waters southward, about 150 to 1,300 km from shore. Seasonal northwesterly winds that are, in part, responsible for the California Current, generate coastal upwelling. The south end of the Oregonian province is at Point Conception (about 310 km southeast of the map area), although its associated phylogeographic group of marine fauna may extend beyond to the area offshore of Los Angeles in southern California. The ocean off of central California has experienced a warming over the last 50 years that is driving an ecosystem shift away from the productive subarctic regime towards a depopulated subtropical environment. Seafloor habitats in the Offshore of Aptos map area lie within the “Shelf” Megahabitat class and include patchy rocky habitats, gravel-rich scour depressions, minor bedrock habitat, and predominantly sandy inner shelf. Sandy shelf habitats grade offshore to mud-dominated habitats on the midshelf in deeper water. Biological productivity resulting from coastal upwelling supports populations of Sooty Shearwater, Western Gull, Common Murre, Cassin’s Auklet, and many other less populous bird species. In addition, an observable recovery of Humpback and Blue Whales has occurred in the area; both species are dependent on coastal upwelling to provide nutrients. California sea lions and Pacific harbor seals are abundant in the map area. Common bottlenose dolphins are often observed very close to shore and in the surf zone. The large extent of exposed inner shelf bedrock supports large forests of “bull kelp,” which is well adapted for high-wave-energy environments. The kelp beds are the northernmost known habitat for the population of southern sea otters. Common fish species found in the kelp beds and rocky reefs include blue rockfish, black rockfish, olive rockfish, kelp rockfish, gopher rockfish, black-and-yellow rockfish, painted greenling, kelp greenling, and lingcod.

California

Fluid spatial dynamics of West Nile virus in the USA: Rapid spread in a permissive host environment

The introduction of West Nile virus (WNV) into North America in 1999 is a classical example of viral emergence in a new environment, with its subsequent dispersion across the continent having a major impact on local bird populations. Despite the importance of this epizootic, the pattern, dynamics and determinants of WNV spread in its natural hosts remain uncertain. In particular, it is unclear whether the virus encountered major barriers to transmission, or spread in an unconstrained manner, and if specific viral lineages were favored over others indicative of intrinsic differences in fitness. To address these key questions in WNV evolution and ecology we sequenced the complete genomes of approximately 300 avian isolates sampled across the USA between 2001-2012. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a relatively ‘star-like' tree structure, indicative of explosive viral spread in US, although with some replacement of viral genotypes through time. These data are striking in that viral sequences exhibit relatively limited clustering according to geographic region, particularly for those viruses sampled from birds, and no strong phylogenetic association with well sampled avian species. The genome sequence data analysed here also contain relatively little evidence for adaptive evolution, particularly on structural proteins, suggesting that most viral lineages are of similar fitness, and that WNV is well adapted to the ecology of mosquito vectors and diverse avian hosts in the USA. In sum, the molecular evolution of WNV in North America depicts a largely unfettered expansion within a permissive host and geographic population with little evidence of major adaptive barriers.

Journal of Virology

Management to conserve forest ecosystems

Historically, management of forests for wildlife has emphasized creation of openings and provision for a maximum of edge habitats. Wildlife managers have believed, quite logically, that increased sunlight enhances productivity among plants and insects, resulting in greater use by game animals and other wildlife. Recent studies comparing breeding bird populations of extensive forests with those of isolated woodlots have shown that the smaller woodlots, especially those under 35 ha (about 85 acres), lack many species that are typical of the larger tracts. The missing species can be predicted, and basically are the neotropical migrants. These long-distance migrants share several characteristics that make them especially vulnerable to reproductive failure in situations where predation and cowbird parasitism are high: they are primarily single-brooded, open nesters that lay small clutches on or near the ground. Edge habitats and forest openings attract cowbirds and predators. The edge species of birds, which are mostly permanent residents or short-distance migrants, are well adapted to survive and reproduce in small isolated woodlands without the benefit of special habitat management. The obligate forest interior species, on the other hand, are decreasing in those parts of North America where extensive forests are being replaced by isolated woodlands. If we are to preserve ecosystems intact for the benefit of future generations, and maintain a viable gene pool for the scarcer species, we must think in terms of retaining large, unbroken tracts of forest and of limiting disturbance in the more remote portions of these tracts.

Book chapter

Land cover, elevation, and precipitation predict distribution and hotspots of three bird species of concern in boreal Alaska

The boreal forest biome is an important breeding area for migratory birds and is undergoing rapid changes, including drying of wetlands, changes to vegetation composition, and human development. Many boreal bird populations are declining, but information is often lacking on how these species associate with habitat characteristics and thus how they may respond to changing conditions. We used a large point-count dataset to describe habitat associations and hotspots for three boreal species of concern in Alaska, USA: Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs), Contopus cooperi (Olive-sided Flycatcher), and Euphagus carolinus (Rusty Blackbird). We used an N-mixture model to evaluate covariates of abundance and two components of detection (availability and perceptibility). We then used the estimated relationships with covariates to predict density of each species across the Northwestern Interior Forest (Bird Conservation Region 4) in Alaska, including identifying hotspots where density was predicted to be in the top 10% of all locations. T. flavipes and E. carolinus were associated with wetlands and mean values of June precipitation; T. flavipes were also associated with low elevation and recent fire; and C. cooperi was associated with needleleaf forest and moderate elevation. Hotspots for T. flavipes and E. carolinus usually overlapped, while hotspots for C. cooperi almost never overlapped with those of the other two species. Following ground-truthing, these predicted distributions could be used to indicate areas of high importance for species of conservation concern and thus inform management decisions and mitigation measures. Our results could also help identify areas that are likely to be important for these species in the future, given the rapid changes now occurring across the boreal biome in response to climate warming and drying.

Alaska

Detection of Splendidofilaria sp. (Onchocercidae:Splendidofilariinae) Microfilaria within Alaskan ground-dwelling birds in the grouse subfamily tetraoninae using taqman probe-based real-time PCR

Grouse and ptarmigan (Galliformes) harbor fairly diverse helminth faunas that can impact the host's health, including filarial nematodes in the genus Splendidofilaria . As host and parasite distributions are predicted to shift in response to recent climate change, novel parasites may be introduced into a region and impose additional stressors on bird populations. Limited information is available on the prevalence of filariasis in Alaska galliforms. To date, no molecular surveys have been completed. Past studies relied on examining blood smears or total body necropsies, which are time-consuming and may not detect filarial parasites with low prevalence in hosts. Therefore, we developed a TaqMan probe-based real-time PCR assay targeting the cytochrome c oxidase 1 gene ( COI ) of Splendidofilaria to decrease processing times and increase sensitivity as well as provide baseline data on the diversity of filariid infections in galliform species in Alaska. We screened a combined total of 708 galliform samples (678 unique individual birds) from different tissues (blood, muscle, and lung) for the presence of filarial DNA across the state of Alaska. Real-time PCR screening revealed an overall prevalence of filarial infection of 9.5% across species: Bonasa umbellus (0%, n = 23), Dendragapus fuliginosus (0%, n = 8), Falcipennis canadensis (26.8%, n = 198), Lagopus lagopus (2.6%, n = 274), Lagopus leucura (0%, n = 23), Lagopus muta (3%, n = 166), and Tympanuchus phasianellus (12.5%, n = 16). We observed microfilarial infections throughout most of Alaska except in Arctic regions and the Aleutian Islands where viable vectors may not be present.

Journal of Parasitology

Problems in estimating age-specific survival rates from recovery data of birds ringed as young

(1) The life table model is frequently employed in the analysis of ringer samples of young in bird populations. The basic model is biologically unrealistic and of little use in making inferences concerning age-specific survival probabilities. (2) This model rests on a number of restrictive assumptions, the failure of which causes serious biases. Several important assumptions are not met with real data and the estimators of age-specific survival are not robust enough to these failures. (3) Five major problems in the use of the life table method are reviewed. Examples are provided to illustrate several of the problems involved in using this method in making inferences about survival rates and its age-specific nature. (4) We conclude that this is an invalid procedure and it should not be used. Furthermore, ringing studies involving only young birds are pointless as regards survival estimation because no valid method exists for estimating age-specific or time-specific survival rates from such data. (5) In our view, inferences about age-specific survival rates are possible only if both young and adult (or young, subadult and adult) age classes are ringed each year for k years ( k ≥ 2).

Journal of Animal Ecology

Chesapeake Bay Watershed - Protecting the Chesapeake Bay and its rivers through science, restoration, and partnership

The Chesapeake Bay, the Nation's largest estuary, has been degraded due to the impact of human-population increase, which has doubled since 1950, resulting in degraded water quality, loss of habitat, and declines in populations of biological communities. Since the mid-1980s, the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP), a multi-agency partnership which includes the Department of Interior (DOI), has worked to restore the Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the critical role of providing unbiased scientific information that is utilized to document and understand ecosystem change to help assess the effectiveness of restoration strategies in the Bay and its watershed. The USGS revised its Chesapeake Bay science plan for 2006-2011 to address the collective needs of the CBP, DOI, and USGS with a mission to provide integrated science for improved understanding and management of the Bay ecosystem. The USGS science themes for this mission are: Causes and consequences of land-use change; Impact of climate change and associated hazards; Factors affecting water quality and quantity; Ability of habitat to support fish and bird populations; and Synthesis and forecasting to improve ecosystem assessment, conservation, and restoration.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin

Land use and climate affect Black Tern, Northern Harrier, and Marsh Wren abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States

Bird populations are influenced by many environmental factors at both large and small scales. Our study evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on the Northern Harrier (Circus cyaneus), Black Tern (Childonias niger), and Marsh Wren (Cistothorus palustris) in the prairie potholes of the upper Midwest of the United States. These species were chosen because their diverse habitat preference represent the spectrum of habitat conditions present in the Prairie Potholes, ranging from open prairies to dense cattail marshes. We evaluated land-use covariates at three logarithmic spatial scales (1,000 ha, 10,000 ha, and 100,000 ha) and constructed models a priori using information from published habitat associations and climatic influences. The strongest influences on the abundance of each of the three species were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales and precipitation in the year preceding that when bird surveys were conducted. Even among scales ranging over three orders of magnitude the influence of spatial scale was small, as models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset. Examination of the effects of large-scale environmental variables on wetland birds elucidated relationships overlooked in many smaller-scale studies, such as the influences of climate and habitat variables at landscape scales. Given the spatial variation in the abundance of our focal species within the prairie potholes, our model predictions are especially useful for targeting locations, such as northeastern South Dakota and central North Dakota, where management and conservation efforts would be optimally beneficial. This modeling approach can also be applied to other species and geographic areas to focus landscape conservation efforts and subsequent small-scale studies, especially in constrained economic climates.

Iowa;Minnesota;Montana;Nebraska;North Dakota;South

Improved estimates of relative occurrence and abundance using opportunistic surveys and presence-only observations: A zero-inflated integrated species distribution model

Modeling tools for estimating and forecasting shifts in species distributions are becoming increasingly valuable for conservation planning and response. This is especially true for wild bird populations, which have been declining across habitats and regions. Species distribution models (SDM) represent a diverse set of tools with options for addressing various sources of bias. Complex spatial processes associated with rare or clustered species can be accounted for using zero-inflated SDMs, whereas biased survey data can be integrated with additional data sources to improve estimates. Each option addresses an important and common source of bias, but the two SDM frameworks have not been implemented together previously. We present a novel zero-inflated extension of an integrated SDM framework for a Poisson regression (ZI-iSDM), allowing for the estimation of independent occurrence and abundance processes by integrating opportunistic survey and presence-only data. We validated performance of this ZI-iSDM using simulated datasets under different degrees of species rarity and density on the landscape as well as sampling bias in opportunistic datasets. We additionally applied this model to real survey data for multiple wild bird species using publicly available observation data combined with open-access environmental information to describe habitat associations. We found that integrating presence-only data, such as banding or harvest events, can compensate for potential deficiencies in opportunistic surveys by expanding sampling to be more representative of available and used habitat. Additionally, models that first differentiated occurrence and abundance using a ZI term were better suited for approximating distributions of spatially clustered species.

Ecological Modeling

Community-based conservation and recovery of native species on Monuriki Island, Fiji

The small uninhabited island of Monuriki (40.4 ha) in western Fiji is of national and international conservation concern for its several protected species. Exotic invasive species and a Category 5 cyclone have exacerbated conservation challenges. The cooperation of local, national, and international stakeholders continues to be crucial in restoration of the island’s native flora and fauna. This summary presents a timeline of restoration efforts and current status of the recovery programme for Monuriki. The critically endangered dry forest habitat of Fiji is only found in a few isolated patches on disparate islands. The Fijian crested iguana (Brachylophus cf. vitiensis) is a critically endangered species restricted to a few small islands in this dry forest zone of western Fiji. The population of crested iguanas on Monuriki Island is the third largest remaining population. Even before iguanas were first documented on the island in the early 1980s, individuals had been removed by local resorts for display purposes, a practice that was previously unregulated. In the late 1990s, the first efforts to conserve and restore Monuriki Island were discussed, but conservation initiatives were not implemented until the development of the Crested Iguana Recovery Plan in 2008. In 2011, domestic goats (Capra hircus) and non-native rats (Rattus exulans) were removed from the island, and 10 pairs of iguanas were brought into captive breeding facilities within Fiji. In 2015, the first 32 captive-bred crested iguanas were released back on Monuriki Island. More than half of these iguanas (N=26) were radio-tracked for 56 days post-release in order to assess survivorship and help provide insights into their short-term movement patterns. Of the 26 iguanas that were tracked, nearly 70% (N=18) were found after 56 days indicating excellent short-term survival. In February 2016, Tropical Cyclone Winston, a Category 5 storm passed through Fiji and devastated some of the tropical dry forest habitat on Monuriki. With sustained winds of up to 230 km/ hr nearly all of the canopy leaves from trees on Monuriki Island were removed and large amounts of debris covered the forest floor. Following the cyclone, a brief wildlife survey revealed Monuriki’s iguana and bird populations were still present. In 2017, the crested iguana captive breeding programme was brought to an end when 16 of the original 20 iguana founders, and an additional 32 captive bred off spring, were reintroduced onto Monuriki. This was accomplished, in part, due to successful breeding and reestablishment of the remaining wild iguanas on the island. Despite a major storm event, reestablishment likely resulted from reduced egg and hatchling predation by the rats, and excellent habitat recovery after goat removal. Overall these invasive species eradications have proven highly successful for the recovery of the iguanas, wedge-tailed shearwaters (Puffi nus pacifi cus), and several other non-target species including the banded rail (Gallirallus philippensis) and endangered Fijian peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus). Furthermore, eradication of non-native species has also helped the recovery of the highly threatened tropical dry forest ecosystem in which these species exist.

Monuriki island

Population trends of birds wintering in the Central Valley of California

Since the 1970s, the Central Valley of California has seen a large investment in preservation and restoration of wetlands and riparian areas. At the same time, grasslands have been lost to vineyards, orchards, and residential development at an accelerating rate. We analyzed data from 17 Christmas Bird Count circles that were surveyed regularly between winter 1978–79 and winter 2013–14 to document population trends for birds wintering in this region. We selected 112 taxa (species or species groups) that were relatively abundant and widespread in the Central Valley during winter and used a hierarchical model to estimate annual rates of population change from the count data while accounting for varying survey effort. A much larger proportion of taxa showed positive (46%) than negative (18%) trends; about a third (36%) showed no detectable change. Central Valley habitats that showed the highest proportion of taxa with increasing vs. decreasing trends were riparian (59% vs. 9%; n = 32), wetlands (49% vs. 11%; n = 47), and open water (44% vs. 0%; n = 9), likely reflecting the conservation efforts in these habitats in recent decades. In contrast, a greater proportion of the taxa associated with grasslands and other open habitats (n = 25) showed decreases (48%) than increases (28%). As expected, species that adapt well to areas of human habitation showed stable or increasing trends. Examples of such species with strong positive trends include Anna's Hummingbird ( Calypte anna ), Black Phoebe ( Sayornis nigricans ) and recent Central Valley arrivals, Eurasian Collared-Dove ( Streptopelia decaocto ) and Great-tailed Grackle ( Quiscalus mexicanus ). Scavenging, opportunistic species such as Turkey Vulture ( Cathartes aura ) and Common Raven ( Corvus corax ) also showed strong positive trends. Trends in wintering populations were largely concordant with estimated trends available from breeding areas in California and western North America. Overall, these abundance data suggest that recent efforts to preserve and restore wetland and riparian habitats may be benefiting birds. However, a similar focus on conservation of the Central Valley's remaining grasslands may be needed to maintain populations of grassland-associated birds.

Book chapter

Increased nesting success of Hawaii Elepaio in response to the removal of invasive black rats

In Hawaii and other oceanic islands with few native land mammals, black rats (Rattus rattus) are among the most damaging invasive vertebrate species to native forest bird populations and habitats, due to their arboreal behavior and generalist foraging habits and habitat use. We evaluated the nesting response of Hawaii Elepaio (Chasiempis sandwichensis; Monarchidae), a generalist insectivore, to the removal of black rats using rodenticide in a before-after-control-impact study in high- and low-elevation mesic montane habitat recovering from long-term damage from introduced ungulates and weeds. We monitored nesting success and rat abundance during 2015–2016 before applying rodenticide bait in 2017 to remove rats from two 700 × 700 m treatment plots that were paired with 2 nontreatment plots of the same size. Rat abundance was reduced by 90% during treatment, with combined variables treatment and elevation best explaining the change using GLM methods and AIC model selection. The daily survival rate (DSR) of nests (n = 191) was greater on treated plots after rodenticide application (mean ± SE = 0.980 ± 0.004 treatment; 0.964 ± 0.004 nontreatment), modeled nest success increased from 29% to 50%, and apparent nest success (number of successful nests per total nests) increased from 37% to 52%. The most informative model for predicting DSR included the effect of treatment. Predation by rats was documented at 3 of 16 nests using video surveillance, and we observed additional evidence of rat predation during in-person nest monitoring. Rats targeted adults on the nest and sometimes removed intact eggs, leaving little trace of their activity. Our results demonstrate that reducing rat predation can immediately improve the nesting success of even a common bird species in habitat with a long history of forest restoration. Sustained predator control may be critical to accelerating the recovery of native forest bird communities.

Hawaii

Nest success of grassland sparrows on reclaimed surface mines

Grasslands resulting from surface mine reclamation support grassland songbird populations in several midwestern and eastern states in the United States, especially where reclaimed mines are large (>1,000ha). However, most reclaimed surface mines in Pennsylvania are small (<200ha), and nest success is unknown. We evaluated nest success of grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum), Henslow's (A. henslowii), and Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) on 4 reclaimed surface mines (50-180ha) in western Pennsylvania, USA from 2006 to 2007. Overall nest success based on mean covariate values was 0.435 (95% CI = 0.376-0.504) for grasshopper sparrows, 0.396 (95% CI = 0.295-0.533) for Henslow's sparrows, and 0.158 (95% CI = 0.063-0.392) for Savannah sparrows. These estimates of nest success are comparable to those on larger reclaimed mines and other habitats. Grasshopper and Henslow's sparrow nests that were well concealed were less likely to fail than highly visible nests (??visible = -0.028, CI = -0.051 to -0.005 for grasshopper sparrows; ??visible = -0.063, CI = -0.112 to -0.014 for Henslow's sparrows), and nests in areas with surrounding deep litter were more likely to fail than nests in areas with shallow litter (??litterD = -0.145, CI = -0.335 to 0.045 for grasshopper sparrows; ??litterD = -0.676, CI = -1.187 to -0.116 for Henslow's sparrows). Savannah sparrow nests in areas with high visual obstruction by vegetation were less likely to fail than nests in areas with sparse and short vegetation (??VisOb = 0.048, CI = 0.006-0.091). Daily probability of survival for grasshopper sparrow nests was greatest early and late in the breeding season, and Savannah sparrow nest survival followed a decreasing linear trend. Nest survival of Henslow's sparrows was greater on warm days (??temp = 0.197, CI = 0.014-0.379), whereas for Savannah sparrows nest survival decreased on warm days and on days with rain, but for Savannah sparrows confidence intervals of weather effects included zero (??temp = -0.098, CI = -0.246 to 0.050; ??rain = 3.13, CI = -14.19 to 20.45). We suggest that small reclaimed surface mine grasslands can provide valuable nesting habitat and could be important to the conservation of grassland bird populations. Because nest success can increase in the latter part of the nesting season, agricultural disturbances or management activities in mid- to late summer could adversely affect reproductive success. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Latent population responses of summer birds to a catastrophic, climatological event

Catastrophic events can create ecological crunches for avian populations. Ornithologists generally assume that such events elicit immediate, dramatic declines in populations followed by rapid recolonization of a site with habitat recovery. Despite total inundation of habitats within the South Platte floodplain of eastern Colorado during the 1983 breeding season, populations of Brown Thrashers (Toxostoma rufum) and Rufoussided Towhees (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) did not decline significantly from 1982 densities. However, populations of both species declined significantly in 1984 and towhee populations remained low in 1985. These observations support speculations from recent studies of shrubsteppe bird populations that site tenacity may play a stronger role in determining annual densities of breeding birds than previously realized.

The Condor