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Proceedings of a USGS Workshop on Facing Tomorrow's Challenges Along the U.S.-Mexico Border - Monitoring, Modeling, and Forecasting Change Within the Arizona-Sonora Transboundary Watersheds
INTRODUCTION TO THE WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS Competition for water resources, habitats, and urban areas in the Borderlands has become an international concern. In the United States, Department of Interior Bureaus, Native American Tribes, and other State and Federal partners rely on the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide unbiased science and leadership in the Borderlands region. Consequently, the USGS hosted a workshop, ?Facing Tomorrow?s Challenges along the U.S.-Mexico Border,? on March 20?22, 2007, in Tucson, Ariz., focused specifically on monitoring, modeling, and forecasting change within the Arizona-Sonora Transboundary Watersheds
The National Map customer requirements: Findings from interviews and surveys
The purpose of this study was to receive customer feedback and to understand data and information requirements for The National Map. This report provides results and findings from interviews and surveys and will guide policy and operations decisions about data and information requirements leading to the development of a 5-year strategic plan for the National Geospatial Program. These findings are based on feedback from approximately 2,200 customers between February and August 2008. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted more than 160 interviews with 200 individuals. The American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS) and the International Map Trade Association (IMTA) surveyed their memberships and received feedback from over 400 members. The Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) received feedback from over 1,600 of its U.S.-based software users through an online survey sent to customers attending the ESRI International User Conference in the summer of 2008. The results of these surveys were shared with the USGS and have been included in this report.
Procedure for calculating estimated ultimate recoveries of Bakken and Three Forks Formations horizontal wells in the Williston Basin
Estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs) are a key component in determining productivity of wells in continuous-type oil and gas reservoirs. EURs form the foundation of a well-performance-based assessment methodology initially developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS; Schmoker, 1999). This methodology was formally reviewed by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Committee on Resource Evaluation (Curtis and others, 2001). The EUR estimation methodology described in this paper was used in the 2013 USGS assessment of continuous oil resources in the Bakken and Three Forks Formations and incorporates uncertainties that would not normally be included in a basic decline-curve calculation. These uncertainties relate to (1) the mean time before failure of the entire well-production system (excluding economics), (2) the uncertainty of when (and if) a stable hyperbolic-decline profile is revealed in the production data, (3) the particular formation involved, (4) relations between initial production rates and a stable hyperbolic-decline profile, and (5) the final behavior of the decline extrapolation as production becomes more dependent on matrix storage.
Abstracts for the October 2012 meeting on volcanism in the American Southwest, Flagstaff, Arizona
Though volcanic eruptions are comparatively rare in the American Southwest, the States of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah host Holocene volcanic eruption deposits and are vulnerable to future volcanic activity. Compared with other parts of the western United States, comparatively little research has been focused on this area, and eruption probabilities are poorly constrained. Monitoring infrastructure consists of a variety of local seismic networks, and ”backbone“ geodetic networks with little integration. Emergency response planning for volcanic unrest has received little attention by either Federal or State agencies. On October 18–20, 2012, 90 people met at the U.S. Geological Survey campus in Flagstaff, Arizona, providing an opportunity for volcanologists, land managers, and emergency responders to meet, converse, and begin to plan protocols for any future activity. Geologists contributed data on recent findings of eruptive ages, eruption probabilities, and hazards extents (plume heights, ash dispersal). Geophysicists discussed evidence for magma intrusions from seismic, geodetic, and other geophysical techniques. Network operators publicized their recent work and the relevance of their equipment to volcanic regions. Land managers and emergency responders shared their experiences with emergency planning for earthquakes. The meeting was organized out of the recognition that little attention had been paid to planning for or mitigation of volcanic hazards in the American Southwest. Moreover, few geological meetings have hosted a session specifically devoted to this topic. This volume represents one official outcome of the meeting—a collection of abstracts related to talks and poster presentations shared during the first two days of the meeting. In addition, this report includes the meeting agenda as a record of the proceedings. One additional intended outcome will be greater discussion and coordination among emergency responders, geologists, geophysicists, and land managers regarding geologic hazards in the Southwest.
The Native American Research Assistantship Program—Building capacity for Indigenous water-resources monitoring
Intertribal networks for collecting and analyzing hydrologic and environmental data are growing. The U.S. Geological Survey can be a key partner with Tribal Nations in the further development of network capacity. A first step is the internship opportunity available through the partnership between the USGS and The Wildlife Society: The Native American Research Assistantship Program.
Calibration of a conodont apatite-based Ordovician 87 Sr/ 86 Sr curve to biostratigraphy and geochronology: Implications for stratigraphic resolution
The Ordovician 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isotope seawater curve is well established and shows a decreasing trend until the mid-Katian. However, uncertainties in calibration of this curve to biostratigraphy and geochronology have made it difficult to determine how the rates of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr decrease may have varied, which has implications for both the stratigraphic resolution possible using Sr isotope stratigraphy and efforts to model the effects of Ordovician geologic events. We measured 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in conodont apatite in North American Ordovician sections that are well studied for conodont biostratigraphy, primarily in Nevada, Oklahoma, the Appalachian region, and Ohio Valley. Our results indicate that conodont apatite may provide an accurate medium for Sr isotope stratigraphy and strengthen previous reports that point toward a significant increase in the rate of fall in seawater 87 Sr/ 86 Sr during the Middle Ordovician Darriwilian Stage. Our 87 Sr/ 86 Sr results suggest that Sr isotope stratigraphy will be most useful as a high-resolution tool for global correlation in the mid-Darriwilian to mid-Sandbian, when the maximum rate of fall in 87 Sr/ 86 Sr is estimated at ∼5.0–10.0 × 10 –5 per m.y. Variable preservation of conodont elements limits the precision for individual stratigraphic horizons. Replicate conodont analyses from the same sample differ by an average of ∼4.0 × 10 –5 (the 2σ standard deviation is 6.2 × 10 –5 ), which in the best case scenario allows for subdivision of Ordovician time intervals characterized by the highest rates of fall in 87 Sr/ 86 Sr at a maximum resolution of ∼0.5–1.0 m.y. Links between the increased rate of fall in 87 Sr/ 86 Sr beginning in the mid-late Darriwilian ( Phragmodus polonicus to Pygodus serra conodont zones) and geologic events continue to be investigated, but the coincidence with a long-term rise in sea level (Sauk-Tippecanoe megasequence boundary) and tectonic events (Taconic orogeny) in North America provides a plausible explanation for the changing magnitude and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the riverine Sr flux to the oceans.
Magnetic data on the structure of the central Arctic Region
A study of 23,000 miles of total intensity aeromagnetic profiles in the central Arctic has been made by the U. S. Geological Survey and the U. S. Coast and Geodetic Survey. The profiles were flown at 20,000 feet above sea level and cover approximately 1,350,000 square miles of the Arctic Ocean between the North Pole and the North American continent. When the profiles are smoothed to remove crustal anomalies, the resulting contoured values differ from the U. S. Hydrographic Office Chart 1703 N for 1955 corrected to 1951 by as much as 2000 gammas in the northern part of the Arctic Archipelago. A nondipole regional focus east of Greenland has decreased in amplitude but has changed very little in position since 1907.5. There is a profound difference in the magnetic characteristics of the rocks on either side of the underwater Lomonosov Ridge across the Arctic Ocean. In the Eurasian Basin the high-altitude profiles are relatively smooth or show only minor anomalies, but on the North American side of the ridge there is a large area of closely spaced, high-amplitude anomalies which has been designated the Central Magnetic Zone. Although the anomaly trends parallel the Alpha Rise, this zone is far more extensive, including nearly half of the Canadian Basin on one side and probably all the Central Arctic Basin on the other side of the rise. The Lomonosov Ridge is marked by a persistent anomaly of moderate size that indicates the presence of magnetic material in the ridge. Probable block-fault structures along the flanks of the Alpha Rise are associated with blocklike magnetic anomalies of comparable widths. A characteristic magnetic pattern occurs over an area of jagged bottom topography in the Eurasian Basin. A similar magnetic pattern over part of the Lena Trough may indicate another area of jagged topography. The belt of epicenters associated with the Mid-Atlantic Ridge continues through this rugged part of the Eurasian Basin, but the absence of the typical high magnetic anomaly makes it doubtful that the mid-oceanic ridge extends through this part of the Arctic . Magnetic data indicate that the thick sections of sedimentary rocks in the Paleozoic geosynclinal belts of northern Ellesmere Island and northern Greenland continue out under the adjacent continental shelves north of Greenland, west of the Arctic Archipelago, north of the part of Alaska east of Barrow, and under part of the Chukchi Shelf, and that they make up the bulk of the Nansen Swell off Spitsbergen. Thick sedimentary fill is indicated in the magnetically flat areas of the Eurasian Basin next to the Lomonosov Ridge and in the southern part of the Canadian Basin. The magnetic profiles on the Eurasian side of the Lomonosov Ridge closely resemble typical magnetic profiles over both Atlantic and Pacific oceans, where as the profiles of the Central Magnetic Zone on the North American side of the Lomonosov Ridge are completely unlike the oceanic data and show a striking similarity to typical profiles over the Precambrian rocks of the Canadian Shield and its buried equivalent under the Central Stable Region of the United States. Therefore, it is concluded that the Arctic region consists of a probable oceanic area on the Eurasian side and a basin formed by downdropped continental rocks, presumably a Precambrian complex similar to that of the Canadian Shield, on the North American side of the ridge.
Concordant paleolatitudes for Neoproterozoic ophiolitic rocks of the Trinity Complex, Klamath Mountains, California
New paleomagnetic results from the eastern Klamath Mountains of northern California show that Neoproterozoic rocks of the Trinity ophiolitic complex and overlying Middle Devonian volcanic rocks are latitudinally concordant with cratonal North America. Combining paleomagnetic data with regional geologic and faunal evidence suggests that the Trinity Complex and related terranes of the eastern Klamath plate were linked in some fashion to the North American craton throughout that time, but that distance between them may have varied considerably. A possible model that is consistent with our paleomagnetic results and the geologic evidence is that the Trinity Complex formed and migrated parallel to paleolatitude in the basin between Laurasia and Australia–East Antarctica as the Rodinian supercontinent began to break up. It then continued to move parallel to paleolatitude at least through Middle Devonian time. Although the eastern Klamath plate served as a nucleus against which more western components of the Klamath Mountains province amalgamated, the Klamath superterrane was not accreted to North America until Early Cretaceous time.
Anatidae brood records in Maine during studies of Anas rubripes (American black duck), 1977–94
This report describes a compilation of brood observations for Anatidae species breeding in Maine during an 18-year period (1977–94) that were made by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Patuxent Wildlife Research Center while it was operated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. During four focused studies, variables affecting the declining Anas rubripes (Brewster, 1902) (American black duck, hereafter black duck) population were assessed. Broods were observed on seven geographical study sites within four study areas located in three of Maine’s five biophysical regions. For combined studies, 168 wetlands were monitored for broods. The 1,907 recorded broods were distributed among study areas: 185 in Dixmont, 241 in Cherryfield and Beddington, 411 in Moosehorn, Baring Unit and Edmunds Unit, and 849 in Aroostook County, Agricultural and Forested sites. Additionally, 221 broods were recorded in the 117-hectare Downing Bog wetland at the Cherryfield site during annual evening visits made between 1985 and 1991. Twelve Anatidae species, mostly black duck (676), Aix sponsa (Linnaeus, 1758) (wood duck; 265), Aythya collaris (Donovan, 1809) (ring-necked duck; 246), and Lophodytes cucullatus (Linnaeus, 1758) (hooded merganser; 163) were observed. Only 139 broods of Anas platyrhynchos (Linnaeus, 1758) (mallard) were found; all but 9 broods were at the Aroostook County, Agricultural site. Branta canadensis (Linnaeus, 1758) (Canada goose) broods were found at the Aroostook County, Agricultural site (58) and Moosehorn, Baring Unit (97). For the combined studies, 468 of 676 (69.2 percent) of black duck broods reached fledging age (Class IIc-III), whereas 93 of 139 (66.9 percent) of mallard broods reached fledging age. Black ducks used predominantly palustrine, emergent wetland; palustrine, forested wetland; and palustrine, scrub-shrub wetland. Of the 134 mallard broods observed at the Agricultural and Forested sites in Aroostook County, 130 (97.0 percent) were observed at the Agricultural site and 93 (71.5 percent) of them were recorded on two palustrine and two lacustrine, unconsolidated bottom class wetlands. Mean size of black duck, wood duck, and ring-necked duck broods in this report were similar to those reported from historic Maine data.
Nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations, loads, and yields in upper Macoupin Creek, Illinois, 2017–21
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Macoupin County Soil and Water Conservation District and the American Farmland Trust, undertook a monitoring effort from 2017 to 2021 in the upper Macoupin Creek watershed. The monitoring effort was to determine and characterize nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentrations, loads, and yields for a 566.7 square kilometer area of the Macoupin Creek watershed at two locations on upper Macoupin Creek bracketing a segment of the watershed where increased implementation of conservation land-use practices was planned. Two monitoring stations were established, consisting of an upstream site (Macoupin Creek at Highway 108 near Carlinville, Illinois; U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 05586647) and a downstream site (Macoupin Creek at Highway 111 near Summerville, Ill.; U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 05586745). Data collected at these stations included continuous stream discharge and periodic samples for nutrients and suspended sediment. A Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season–Kalman model was implemented to estimate daily concentrations for nitrate plus nitrite, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment for both monitoring stations. These daily concentrations were used in conjunction with the continuous stream discharge data to derive estimates of constituent flux, loads, and yields. During the study period, the study area subbasin of the upper Macoupin Creek watershed reduced downstream nitrate and total phosphorus cummulative yields by approximately 54 and 21 percent, respectively; however, the cummulative yield of suspended sediment increased by approximately 10 percent from inputs within the study area. These data indicate that nitrate and phosphorus transport is greater from the upstream subbasin and being diluted in the combined subbasin by lower transport from the study area, whereas suspended sediment is being contributed from the study area reach, presumably through surface runoff and streambank and streambed erosion.
Geographic distribution and dispersal of normapolles genera in North America
Normapolles pollen have been found in North America in Cretaceous and Lower Tertiary rocks from the eastern Atlantic Seaboard, the Mississippi embayment region and from the states and provinces from western North America as far north as the District of Mackenzie, Northwest Territories. Previous postulates relating to the Normapolles floral province (western Europe-eastern North America) were re-examined in the light of new finds of Normapolles genera in rocks from west of the Cretaceous epeiric seaway which separated the Normapolles province from the western North American Aquilapollenites province. A study of published occurrences of Normapolles genera and U.S. Geological Survey Denver Laboratory Normapolles records revealed that of the approximately 60 Normapolles genera recognized from western Europe, only 26 of these have been recognized from eastern North America. These data suggest that Normapolles-producing plants originated in western Europe and migrated to eastern North America prior to the opening of the north Atlantic seaway. Ten of these 26 genera also have been found in rocks from west of the Cretaceous epeiric seaway, suggesting that these genera were the only ones able to cross this barrier. At least six genera having Normapolles characteristics occur in eastern North America but have not yet been recorded from Europe. Two additional genera with Normapolles characteristics have been reported only from the Aquilapollenites province of western North America. Several discrepancies in the record need resolution, such as the latitudinal restriction of Thomsonipollis and Nudopollis to areas south 40??N latitude, the absence of records of Thomsonipollis east and north of central Georgia, and the absence of records of Kyandopollenites and Choanopollenites west of eastern Texas. These data show that the known boundaries of the Normapolles province are somewhat hazy and that firm conclusions regarding the geographic distribution and history of dispersal of Normapolles genera are premature. ?? 1981.
The contributions and influence of two Americans, Henry S. Washington and Frank A. Perret, to the study of Italian volcanism with emphasis on volcanoes in the Naples area
A century ago, two Americans, Henry Stephens Washington and Frank Alvord Perret, made significant contributions to the geology, petrology, and volcanology of Italy, in particular to those volcanoes in the Naples area, Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei (Phlegraean Fields), and the Island of Ischia. Both were from the eastern United States, both were born in 1867, and both studied physics as undergraduates. However, each man followed a different scientific path and approach in his volcanological studies. Washington was classically trained and more interested in rock chemistry, mineralogy, and petrogenesis. Perret was a gifted inventor, worked in Edison's laboratory, established his own company, and was a keen observer of volcanic phenomena and processes; today he would be called a “physical volcanologist” Each man published classic works on Italian volcanoes, The Roman Comagmatic Region (Washington, 1906) and The Vesuvius Eruption of 1906 (Perret, 1924); both were published by the Carnegie Institution of Washington. However, both men had cosmopolitan tastes for other volcanoes, and they traveled widely and made significant contributions to the knowledge of other volcanic areas. The following two sections present, albeit briefly, their work, significance, and influence to Italian volcanism with emphasis on those volcanoes in the Naples area.
Water resources activities of the U.S. Geological Survey
No abstract available.
Digital aeromagnetic datasets for the conterminous United States and Hawaii: A companion to the North American magnetic anomaly map
No abstract available.
A Crosswalk of Mineral Commodity End Uses and North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes
This crosswalk is based on the premise that there is a connection between the way mineral commodities are used and how this use is reflected in the economy. Raw mineral commodities are the basic materials from which goods, finished products, or intermediate materials are manufactured or made. Mineral commodities are vital to the development of the U.S. economy and they impact nearly every industrial segment of the economy, representing 12.2 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010 (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2014). In an effort to better understand the distribution of mineral commodities in the economy, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) attempts to link the end uses of mineral commodities to the corresponding North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The links between the end uses of mineral commodities and the NAICS codes provide an instrument for analyzing the use of mineral commodities in the economy. The crosswalk is also a guide, highlighting those industrial sectors in the economy that rely heavily on mineral commodities. The distribution of mineral commodities across the economy is dynamic and does differ from year to year. This report reflects a snapshot of the state of the economy and mineral commodities in 2010.
Pilot studies for the North American Soil Geochemical Landscapes Project - Site selection, sampling protocols, analytical methods, and quality control protocols
In 2004, the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the Geological Survey of Canada sampled and chemically analyzed soils along two transects across Canada and the USA in preparation for a planned soil geochemical survey of North America. This effort was a pilot study to test and refine sampling protocols, analytical methods, quality control protocols, and field logistics for the continental survey. A total of 220 sample sites were selected at approximately 40-km intervals along the two transects. The ideal sampling protocol at each site called for a sample from a depth of 0-5 cm and a composite of each of the O, A, and C horizons. The <2-mm fraction of each sample was analyzed for Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na, S, Ti, Ag, As, Ba, Be, Bi, Cd, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Ga, In, La, Li, Mn, Mo, Nb, Ni, P, Pb, Rb, Sb, Sc, Sn, Sr, Te, Th, Tl, U, V, W, Y, and Zn by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry and inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry following a near-total digestion in a mixture of HCl, HNO 3 , HClO 4 , and HF. Separate methods were used for Hg, Se, total C, and carbonate-C on this same size fraction. Only Ag, In, and Te had a large percentage of concentrations below the detection limit. Quality control (QC) of the analyses was monitored at three levels: the laboratory performing the analysis, the USGS QC officer, and the principal investigator for the study. This level of review resulted in an average of one QC sample for every 20 field samples, which proved to be minimally adequate for such a large-scale survey. Additional QC samples should be added to monitor within-batch quality to the extent that no more than 10 samples are analyzed between a QC sample. Only Cr (77%), Y (82%), and Sb (80%) fell outside the acceptable limits of accuracy (% recovery between 85 and 115%) because of likely residence in mineral phases resistant to the acid digestion. A separate sample of 0-5-cm material was collected at each site for determination of organic compounds. A subset of 73 of these samples was analyzed for a suite of 19 organochlorine pesticides by gas chromatography. Only three of these samples had detectable pesticide concentrations. A separate sample of A-horizon soil was collected for microbial characterization by phospholipid fatty acid analysis (PLFA), soil enzyme assays, and determination of selected human and agricultural pathogens. Collection, preservation and analysis of samples for both organic compounds and microbial characterization add a great degree of complication to the sampling and preservation protocols and a significant increase to the cost for a continental-scale survey. Both these issues must be considered carefully prior to adopting these parameters as part of the soil geochemical survey of North America.
Application of the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) model to assess fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production in the American River, California
Executive Summary Anadromous fish returning to the lower American River are restricted to 36 kilometers of free-flowing river between Nimbus Dam and American River’s confluence with the Sacramento River, California. Salmon in the American River provide an important freshwater recreational fishery. However, annual salmon production in the American River in recent years has been low relative to the mid-1990s (Surface Water Resources, Inc., 2001). To investigate the low production of fall-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), the Bureau of Reclamation requested that the U.S. Geological Survey apply the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) model to the population of fall-run Chinook salmon on the American River. The American River was chosen among seven candidate Sacramento Basin rivers for S3 application. The American River was selected because of its management and public interest, recently low anadromous fish production, and rich time series of key demographic data needed for S3 application. Data that were not available, however, were empirical estimates on juvenile salmon habitat suitability in the American River. Therefore, a large component of applying S3 to the American River was devoted to the estimation of juvenile salmon habitat suitability and capacity. This entailed snorkeling the lower American River for 3 weeks in March 2021 during the early out-migration period for juvenile Chinook salmon. These efforts were fruitful and showed that the typically small fish (<55 millimeters) in the American River preferred much shallower depths than predicted by habitat suitability criteria derived from the literature for this population. Having empirical estimates on juvenile salmon in the American River provided a solid foundation from which to simulate the population using the S3 model. The S3 model is a spatially explicit population model that runs on a daily time step to simulate redd superimposition, egg maturation, fry emergence and the subsequent growth, survival, and emigration of juvenile Chinook salmon from the river. The key features of this model relevant to this report include (1) a temperature-dependent bioenergetics model driving daily growth rates; (2) density-dependent dynamics that are influenced by the effect of flow on suitable habitat area; and (3) within-year habitat, river flow, and water temperature effects specific to spawning, egg incubation, and fry, parr, and smolt life stages. We used estimates of spawning escapement and geo-referenced redd locations to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of female spawners for brood years 2014–19. These estimates of female spawners initiate the simulation of each year’s juvenile salmon emergence and emigration over a spatial domain extending from Nimbus Dam to the river’s confluence with the Sacramento River. Using weekly estimates of juvenile salmon abundance and size (fork length) that passed the Watt Avenue fish trap (river kilometer 14.7), we calibrated the S3 model by estimating three key demographic parameters for each year, y : (1) S y , the average daily survival probability, (2) M 0y , the intercept for density-dependence in movement, representing the average daily probability of remaining in a habitat at zero abundance, and (3) C y , the average daily proportion of maximum consumption. These parameters were obtained by minimizing the Mallow’s distance (Lupu and others, 2017) between distributions of weekly abundances and sizes of fish at the traps and weekly simulated abundances and sizes (by S3). Investigation of model fit showed excellent agreement between simulated annual abundances and the abundance of fish passing the fish trap. However, when we compared weekly abundances at the fish trap, S3 under-predicted peaks and over-predicted troughs in the time series of weekly abundances at the fish trap. Thus, some unknown within-year effects have yet to be identified and incorporated in the S3 model. Identifying these important effects and incorporating them in the S3 model would help explain the lack of fit between estimated and simulated weekly abundances. We estimated parameters for 6 years that included a wide range of female spawner abundances (3,057–10,753) and water year types (Critical–Wet). We contrast our estimated parameters to the corresponding number of female spawners and the water year type for the Sacramento Valley. By happenstance, years having higher annual spawner abundances concurred with Critical to Dry water year types. Estimates of survival trended lower with higher spawner abundances and Critical to Dry conditions. In contrast, the extremely wet water year of 2017 had the lowest M 0y , suggesting less density-dependence in fish movement, and the lowest C y , suggesting lower average consumption in this year. When this high-flow year was excluded, a trend towards higher probabilities of fish remaining in a habitat at low abundance and lower proportions of maximum consumption was apparent from Critical to Wet conditions, but only 5 years of data were included. Except for 2017, daily proportions of maximum consumption were relatively high ( C y > 0.83), suggesting that fish were feeding at reasonably high proportions relative to the expected maximum consumption as defined by the “Wisconsin” bioenergetics model (Stewart and Ibarra, 1991). Survival estimates from fry emergence to outmigration at the Sacramento River confluence were generally low when integrated over time. The highest daily survival probability was S y = 0.93 in 2019, or 50 percent total mortality after 10 days. In contrast, our lowest daily survival probability was S y = 0.74 in 2015, or 95 percent total mortality after 10 days. Consequently, even our highest estimated daily survival probability might be considered low. This is especially true given that S y was estimated over a relatively short distance (<14.7 kilometers) from emergence to the Watt Avenue fish trap. Several factors, including our assumed and relatively high daily egg survival rate of 0.9975, could influence juvenile survival estimates. For example, an egg survival rate of 0.9975 results in 3-percent total mortality after 10 days. Egg mortality estimates used in S3 calibration were approximated from egg survivorship studies in the Yakima River, Washington (Johnson and others, 2012), and remains one of the greater uncertainties in S3 when estimating survival across life stages. By including bona fide estimates of egg survival in S3 simulations, the validity of the S3’s current daily egg survival rate could be assessed specifically for the American River. Tagging studies also could provide S3 with direct estimates of juvenile survival and movement; survival during egg incubation then could be estimated indirectly via model fitting.