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Spatio-temporal modeling for assessing geoenergy resources: A workflow applied to gas in place variation in coal beds

The ability to estimate spatio-temporal changes in hydrocarbon reservoir properties and energy resources within pore volumes is essential for optimizing production, reservoir management, geologic energy storage, and safety in underground mining operations. In coal seams, predicting remaining methane gas-in-place (GIP) is critical for quantifying producible gas and improving mine safety and productivity through effective ventilation planning. Although such changes are commonly evaluated using physics-based numerical simulation models, these approaches often require extensive data, calibration effort, and time. This study presents a spatio-temporal geostatistical modeling approach that bridges the gap between purely spatial models and full numerical simulations. The method is applied to a case study of coal seam degasification in the Mary Lee coal group, Black Warrior Basin, Alabama, USA, to estimate GIP evolution over time within a selected mining district. The analysis uses published data from prior natural gas production history-matching of degasification using vertical wells. Empirical spatial and temporal statistics were calculated for reservoir pressure and water saturation, and spatio-temporal variogram models were fitted to experimental variograms. These models provided the structural basis for spatio-temporal kriging, integrated with spatial estimates of time-invariant parameters (porosity, density, and thickness) to estimate GIP. This approach enabled estimation of GIP changes over time, including periods without data. Boxplots of GIP estimates indicated systematic depletion and decreasing spatial variability, reflecting the impacts of degasification. Comparison with cumulative gas production from empirical well records showed approximately 85% agreement based on a relative similarity metric. Spatio-temporal GIP estimates were also used to estimate methane emissions to longwall ventilation systems and compared with reported emissions from the U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, showing similar distributions (≈80%) given data limitations. Overall, this integrated modeling approach provides time-dependent GIP estimates with broader implications for resource assessment applications.

Alabama

USGS Geochron Database

Introduction Geochronology helps us understand Earth’s history by determining when important events, like volcanic eruptions, the rise of mountains, the formation of mineral resources, and changes in the landscape, happened. Geochronological data directly support geologic mapping and can inform decisions about geologic hazard mitigation, natural resource management, and infrastructure resilience. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Geochron database provides access to more than 300,000 published, publicly available age measurements from more than 40,000 geological samples. This database is the result of a collaborative effort with State geological surveys and geoscientists from across the globe. The USGS Geochron database is the most comprehensive collection of geochronological data available for the United States. Users can view data through an interactive map explorer, download datasets, and integrate data into geospatial software or other analysis tools.

Fact Sheet

The value of electronic tagging and tracking studies for understanding fish–hypoxia interactions

Objective Hypoxia (i.e., low dissolved oxygen availability) is a natural phenomenon but can also be induced by human activities (e.g., nutrient enrichment from runoff). Given that dissolved oxygen is essential for aquatic life, periods of hypoxia tend to have negative consequences (e.g., sublethal disturbances, mortality) for most fishes. Extensive laboratory research has documented hypoxia thresholds and physiological and behavioral outcomes for a variety of freshwater and marine fishes and there is also an extensive body of fieldwork assessing population-level responses (e.g., survival, distribution). Yet, studying how individual fish respond to hypoxia in the wild has proved challenging; electronic tagging and tracking tools (e.g., biotelemetry, biologging) have made it easier to study individual responses to hypoxia and complement other tools like hydroacoustics that tend to focus on population-level responses. Methods We review what has been learned from contemporary studies that employ electronic tagging and tracking tools to understand how fish respond to hypoxia in the wild. Topics explored include identifying and validating hypoxia thresholds, habitat compression, connectivity, mortality, physiological and bioenergetic consequences, and extreme weather conditions. We also consider what we have learned about evaluating various management plans for hypoxia and reflect on how electronic tags have also been used in aquaculture systems and in hybrid studies that combine laboratory and field research. We highlight fishes in Lake Erie as a research narrative to demonstrate how electronic tagging and tracking have markedly improved our understanding of a longstanding hypoxia issue. Results Our synthesis revealed that electronic tagging and tracking have provided critical information on how fish respond to hypoxia in the field, revealing complex trade-offs and compensatory mechanisms as well as cryptic hypoxia-induced mortality. Beyond just illuminating space use and mortality, tags equipped with various sensors are revealing how fish deal with hypoxia in real time in terms of physiology, bioenergetics, and behavior. Conclusions As electronic tagging and tracking methods experience further innovation and are increasingly applied to understand the effects of hypoxia on fish, we expect more unanticipated findings about the effects of hypoxia on fish in all aquatic ecosystems, which will strengthen our ability to manage and mitigate hypoxia. Combining tools and approaches (e.g., lab and field) is perhaps the best way to generate comprehensive understanding.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

New York and Landsat

From the iconic skyline of New York City to the forested landscapes of the Adirondack Mountains and the countryside of the Allegheny Plateau, the State of New York is overflowing with diversity and life. Bordered by the Atlantic Ocean on the east and two of the Great Lakes to the north and west, New York has more than 7,600 lakes, ponds, and reservoirs and more than 70,000 miles of rivers and streams. New York’s stewardship of its freshwater resources is fundamental to the health and well-being of all who work at, reside in, and visit the State’s landmarks and places. Harmful algal blooms in the State’s waterbodies are a growing concern and threaten the health of the region and its inhabitants. Images and data from Landsat satellites continue to provide critical information to scientists, public health officials, and resource managers who are studying the effects and risks of the problem.

New York

Annual NLCD (National Land Cover Database)—The next generation of land cover mapping

Introduction The widely used National Land Cover Database (NLCD) has long been the foundational land cover source for scientists, resource managers, and decision makers across the United States. In 2024, a reinvention as Annual NLCD added the key improvement of annual time steps to show decades of change at a higher frequency than the intervals of 2–3 years used in the legacy NLCD. Annual NLCD was derived primarily from the long Landsat satellite data record, and it includes data from other sources. The first release in 2024 of Annual NLCD provides Collection 1.0 of products encompassing land cover and land change from 1985 through 2023 for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Annual NLCD Collection 1.0 consists of six operational products that map the unique characteristics of land cover. A map created from Annual NLCD shows 16 land cover classes for the CONUS in 2023.

conterminous United States

Benthic habitat map of Olowalu Reef, Maui, Hawaii—Geomorphological structure, biological cover, and geologic zonation determined with spectral, lidar, and acoustic data

The fringing coral reef off Olowalu, Maui, Hawaii, has been identified as a local conservation priority site. In 2007, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) produced a benthic habitat map of the Hawaiian Islands that was used as a foundation for this study. To support place-based management of the reef in the future, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mapped the geologic zone, major and dominant geomorphological structure, biological cover type, and percent of biological cover for 11 square kilometers (km 2 ) of Olowalu Reef at a minimum mapping unit (MMU) of 100 square meters (m 2 ) to create a benthic habitat map. Heads-up digitization was employed on 0.50-meter (m) natural color satellite orthoimagery with ancillary 1-m acoustic backscatter imagery from single-scan sonar (sound navigation and ranging). A 1-m, 4-m, and 8-m digital bathymetric model (DBM) was interpolated from bathymetric lidar (light detection and ranging), and various geomorphometric layers derived from the DBMs were used for habitat interpretation. Still-frame imagery of the seafloor extracted from vessel-towed underwater video transects on Olowalu Reef served as ground validation points ( n =870) during active mapping and accuracy assessment points ( n =216) for thematic accuracy assessment. Thematic accuracy was cross-validated by the Hawai‘i Department of Land and Natural Resources Division of Aquatic Resources. Final thematic accuracy was 88.8 percent for major structure, 85.6 percent for dominant structure, 86.0 percent for major biological cover, and 78.6 percent for type and percent of major biological cover. Reef and hardbottom constituted 52 percent of the total mapped habitat, comprising mostly aggregate reef (31 percent) and pavement (11 percent), with large swaths of spur-and-groove (9 percent). Of this hardbottom, 17 percent was covered with moderate (10 to <50 percent) coral and 27 percent with high coral cover (50 to <90 percent). High (50 to <90 percent) macroalgae cover dominated the continuous sand sheets in offshore bank/shelf zones. The map created in this study supplements the NOAA 2007 map and expands on the observations made by USGS sampling of the reef. The NOAA 2007 map and our map differed in total areal extent by a negligible 6 m 2 and were in general thematic agreement. Our map is intended to serve as a baseline for public access, general research, local-level management, and reef change for future studies.

Hawaii

Peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. This work is part of that reexamination. The stationarity assumption is a concern because flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This report summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Scientific Investigations Report

Reservoir evolution, downstream sediment transport, downstream channel change, and synthesis of geomorphic responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to water years 2012–18 streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Chapter A. Introduction Fall Creek Dam impounds Fall Creek Lake, a 10-kilometer-long reservoir in western Oregon and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) primarily for flood-risk management (or flood control) in late autumn through early spring months, as well as for water quality, irrigation, recreation, and habitat in late spring through early autumn. Since 2011 (water year [WY] 2012), Fall Creek Lake has been temporarily drawn down each year to facilitate downstream passage of juvenile spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) through the 55-meter (m) high dam. This annual dam operation is temporary, typically lasting about 1–2 weeks from WY 2012 through 2020 (drawdown operations in WY 2022–24 have increased to more than 6 weeks). Drawdown of the reservoir results in lake levels being lowered to the elevation near the historical, pre-dam streambed. The annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18 have improved fish passage and led the USACE to formally adopt streambed drawdowns as part of annual operations at Fall Creek Dam. However, temporarily lowering the lake to streambed creates free-flowing conditions in the reservoir that result in the erosion and episodic export of predominantly sand and finer-grained sediments (less than 2 millimeters [mm]) to the lower gravel-bed reaches of Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The introduction of large volumes of sand and finer-grain sediment into the dam-regulated reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam prompted questions about the geomorphic responses to annual streambed drawdowns within Fall Creek Lake and downstream reaches along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with USACE initiated a comprehensive geomorphic and sediment transport investigation to assess the coupled processes of reservoir erosion, sediment evacuation from Fall Creek Lake, and patterns of sediment transport and deposition in reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam that have resulted from annual streambed drawdowns. The purpose of this report is to systematically describe the processes of sediment erosion, transport, and deposition at Fall Creek Lake and geomorphic interactions between reaches upstream and downstream from Fall Creek Dam that relate to dam operations. Specifically, this report focuses on evaluating geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 through 2018 and placing drawdown-induced geomorphic responses within the broader context of physiographic and historical conditions and dam operations of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers. Key objectives for this study were to characterize changes in reservoir morphology and substrate at Fall Creek Lake, describe the character and temporal pattern of sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam, characterize geomorphic changes in channel reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam, and relate these data to the annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18. This study uses multiple independent monitoring and measurement approaches to assess site, reach, and river-scale geomorphic responses to drawdowns to inform dam and reservoir management. Patterns and processes of reservoir evolution were assessed with geomorphic mapping and volumetric analyses of topography through comparison of multiple digital surface models (DSMs). Just downstream from Fall Creek Dam, analyses of sediment export from the reservoir focused on suspended sediment but also incorporated bedload analyses to assess sediment sizes. Geomorphic assessments downstream from the dam used reach-scale and site-scale approaches to document changes in channel morphology and substrate, including site measurements of sand and finer-grained sediment deposition and in-channel bed-material, volumetric change analyses from comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs), and repeat geomorphic mapping. Findings from this study inform river management and dam operations by providing an understanding of (1) coupled upstream-downstream geomorphic responses to the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns, (2) geomorphic responses of Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns in comparison to drawdowns at other large dams, (3) controls on reservoir erosion and downstream geomorphic responses, and (4) implications for future hydrogeomorphic changes that may result from continued drawdowns and monitoring activities to assess those changes. Chapter B. Reservoir Morphology and Evolution Related to Dam Operations at Fall Creek Lake To understand the volume and distribution of sediment accumulation in Fall Creek Lake since dam closure in 1965, decadal-scale sedimentation patterns (spanning approximately 1965–2016) are evaluated using a combination of storage curve analyses and geomorphic mapping. Short-term (drawdown event-scale) patterns of erosion, sedimentation, and sediment export downstream are evaluated using a combination of geomorphic mapping and change detection analyses that quantify the distribution and total volume of sediment erosion and deposition within Fall Creek Lake. Geomorphic mapping of reservoir topography and analyses of historical datasets reveals four categories of landforms and sediment processes within Fall Creek Lake related to lake level operations: lacustrine sedimentation expressed in the reservoir floor, fluvial erosion and deposition within historical stream channels during streambed drawdowns, channel-like features created by erosion within the reservoir floor during streambed drawdowns, and erosion on reservoir hillslopes. Where the reservoir floor is mapped for this study as pelagic (deep water), deposition up to 3 meters (m) thick by lacustrine processes and burial of pre-dam topography with deposits thinning toward the edges of the valley floor and upstream areas of reservoir are observed. Despite over 50 years of sediment accumulation since dam construction, the main stream channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks (or reservoir thalwegs) through the reservoir are well defined, though their distinct morphology is likely influenced by a long history of recurring historical drawdowns to or near streambed since dam construction. Unregulated streamflow and sediment transport through the reservoir primarily are confined to these channels during the streambed drawdown periods. Erosional channel-like features created by drawdowns are carved through underlying, unconsolidated reservoir floor sediments and are most prominent in the lower reservoir below minimum conservation pool (the low pool elevation during winter flood season); sediment generated from the formation of these drawdown channels is more likely to be transported through and out of the reservoir than sediment deposits along the reservoir hillslopes at the valley margins that are separated from main channels by areas of low-gradient reservoir floor. Morphologic changes in the lower reservoir topography between January 2012 and November 2016 indicate overall net erosion of about 129,500 cubic meters (m 3 ). The most prominent geomorphic changes occurred along the main channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks near the Fall Creek Dam where incision, lateral migration, and slumping banks resulted in vertical and lateral adjustments to channel position, whereas most changes fell below the detectable limit on higher-elevation reservoir floor surfaces except where erosion occurred along features mapped as drawdown channels. Chapter C. Sediment Delivery from Fall Creek Lake and Transport through Downstream Reaches USGS implemented a sediment monitoring program in WY 2013–18 to evaluate the quantity and character of reservoir sediment exported from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns. Turbidity and suspended sediments were monitored annually autumn through spring to span the WY 2013–18 streambed drawdowns; however, unequal monitoring timeframes each year reduced the ability to compare results and factors affecting sediment export from the reservoir difficult between years. These data were originally measured to develop regressions and compute suspended-sediment loads (SSL). Bedload sediment monitoring from a cableway at the Fall Creek streamgage was completed in the autumn-winter of WY 2013 and 2017. The limited number of samples and presumed variability in sediment supply from the reservoir precluded construction of streamflow and bedload discharge relations to compute more than instantaneous bedload. Sand and finer-grained silts and clays were transported from the reservoir in suspension, though some coarser grains (up to 32 mm) were also mobilized and transported downstream from the dam as bedload. Observations of increased sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam coincided with lake levels approaching about 3 m (10 feet [ft] or elevation 690 ft) above the streambed regulating outlets. Suspended-sediment loads computed for the full monitoring periods WY 2013–18 at the Fall Creek streamgage, located 1.4 kilometers (km) downstream from Fall Creek Dam, range from 54,700 metric tons (t) in WY 2013 to 13,900 t in WY 2018. Although the total annual SSL varied from year to year, the overall seasonal patterns of suspended sediment transport throughout each year were similar during monitoring in WY 2013-18. Suspended-sediment loads were low prior to the drawdown, then increased rapidly as lake levels lowered and approached the streambed. In the weeks following the drawdown period, as pool levels were increased, SSL remained slightly elevated above pre-drawdown levels but generally declined through the following winter and spring except during streamflow-driven pulses of suspended-sediment transport. WY 2013 had the greatest total computed SSL for each streambed drawdown and partial-year monitoring period. SSL computed for the partial-year period have generally decreased since WY 2013 and have varied by about 6,800 t with the exception of WY 2014. WY 2014 SSL reflects anomalously low sediment export due to low streamflows and freezing conditions that stabilized reservoir floor deposits. Bedload measurements in the short 1.4-km reach between Fall Creek Dam and the Fall Creek streamgage showed an inverse correlation between bedload transport rates and discharge, which probably reflects diminishing supply of coarse-sized sediment. Sand was more abundant (60–100 percent) than gravel in bedload samples confirming sand and finer-grained sediment dominated sediment evacuated from the reservoir during streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Chapter D. Geomorphic Responses to Fall Creek Lake Streambed Drawdowns Downstream from Fall Creek Dam In the days, weeks, and months following streambed drawdown operations at Fall Creek Dam through WY 2018, sites downstream from the dam displayed a variety of geomorphic responses to reservoir sediment delivery within the main channel and overbank areas. Evaluation of streambed elevations at two streamgages located 1.4 km downstream from the dam on Fall Creek and 16.3 km downstream from the dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River indicated the effects of drawdown sediment on bed elevations were modest and transient. Repeat particle size measurements (October 2015 and September 2016) at five sites along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River showed similar grain-sized distributions that do not reveal substantial deposition of fine-grained sediment related to the WY 2016 streambed drawdown. Altogether, these findings indicate that transport capacity in the main, low-flow channels of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River during WY 2012–18 was sufficient to mobilize and evacuate reservoir sediments from streambed drawdowns or other bank material and tributary sources. However, other monitoring for this study indicate low-velocity zones in off-channel areas are prime locations for sand and finer-grain sediment deposition. Patterns of overbank sediment accumulation indicate that the magnitude and timing of overbank deposition on bars and low-elevation floodplain varies with proximity to the dam, geomorphic setting, streamflows, and other factors. Sand and finer-grained reservoir sediments carried as suspended-sediment load in the reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam were deposited in overbank areas as observed with clay-horizon markers during WY 2016–17. Overbank deposition quantified with Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) software evaluated landform-scale patterns of erosion and deposition using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys at two sites in the Upper Fall Creek reach and one site in the Jasper reach for 3 years (2012–15) and one site in the Clearwater reach for 6 years (2009–15). Deposition thickness and spatial patterns from the GCD analysis were variable; some sites had dispersed but measurable deposition while at others, deposition was highly localized and exceeded 1 m in depth. Patterns of overbank deposition illustrate interactions among bar morphology, local hydraulics, and suspended-sediment transport dynamics that can create patches of highly localized deposition. The measured deposition at the two Fall Creek GCD sites likely resulted from reservoir sediments released from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns in WY 2016 and 2017 because the limited sediment inputs from bank material (geomorphically laterally stable reach) or tributaries (no significant tributaries) provided few other sediment sources. On the Middle Fork Willamette River, observed patterns of overbank deposition could reflect sediment sourced from upstream tributaries, bank erosion, or Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdown operations. Despite the introduction of several thousand tons of reservoir sediment delivered from the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns to below-dam river corridors, reach-scale mapping of channel features downstream from Fall Creek Dam shows minimal evidence of changes in channel planform or landforms that can be attributed to a drawdowns in WY 2012–16. On Upper Fall Creek reach, widespread increases in gravel bars or other in-channel sediment did not result from the five streambed drawdowns. The main changes attributable to sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake were localized increases in vegetated bar area, particularly on channel margin areas where sand and finer-grain sediment was deposited and rapidly colonized by vegetation. The area of mapped secondary water features decreased between 2005 and 2016, but that may be due to lower discharges depicted in the 2016 aerial photographs and less mapped area of inundation. Primary changes along the Lower Fall Creek reach include a 6.4 percent decrease in area of secondary water features between 2011 and 2016, and a nearly twofold increase in the area of unvegetated bars. Immediately downstream from the Fall Creek confluence, there were negligible changes in the location and areas of vegetated bars and the main wetted channel between 2005 and 2016, and local increases in bar area cannot be attributed solely to deposition of reservoir sediments from Fall Creek Lake because (1) areas along the Middle Fork Willamette River just upstream from the Fall Creek confluence display similar type and magnitude of changes and (2) some of the increases at the confluence area pre-date the drawdowns. The cumulative effect of sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 to 2016 on downstream channel planform and landforms are modest compared to the river-scale transformations and planform changes that occurred in the decades following dam construction. Chapter E. Discussion of Geomorphic Responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to Streambed Drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake Multiple aspects of Fall Creek Dam infrastructure and operations exert first-order controls on the magnitudes of reservoir erosion that occur during the streambed drawdowns and ultimately determine the sediment delivery to downstream reaches. Key aspects of the dam and its operations that are most relevant to assessing geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns include the (1) dam infrastructure, including configuration and size of regulating outlets and their proximity to the streambed which dictates the capacity and competence of the river to deliver sediment to downstream reaches and mode of sediment transport as suspended-sediment load or bedload; (2) frequency of historical drawdowns and long-term, year-round dam operations and lake level management, which partly dictate reservoir morphology and locations and magnitudes of readily erodible materials; (3) dam operations and hydroclimatic conditions during the streambed drawdown (including length of the drawdown and streamflows entering the reservoir), which directly control the timing, duration and magnitude of reservoir erosion and sediment evacuation; and (4) dam operations following the streambed drawdown operation that regulate streamflows (and thereby sediment transport conditions) downstream of Fall Creek Dam which primarily reflect interactions between hydroclimatic conditions and flood control operations. Patterns of sediment erosion and evacuation observed in this study at Fall Creek Lake from WY 2012–18 suggest that reservoir erosion during annual streambed drawdowns may remain similar or decrease in future years assuming (1) annual streambed drawdown operations are implemented in similar manner as the WY 2012–18 drawdowns (in terms of duration, late autumn or early winter implementation, rate of pool-level lowering to reach streambed, and other factors), (2) streambed drawdowns coincide with similar conditions as were observed WY 2012–18 (similar sediment yield into reservoir, low reservoir inflows, limited precipitation, moderate air temperature), and (3) no major geomorphic changes in the main reservoir channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks occur (for example, channel avulsion). Under such conditions, it is hypothesized that the stream channel within the reservoir would achieve a quasi-equilibrium state with respect to annual influx and export of sediment and aided by the substantial amount of in-channel bedrock, will remain laterally stable without erosion across reservoir deposits. Patterns of sediment transport measured at the Fall Creek streamgage downstream from Fall Creek Dam provide insight into the potential effects of future streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Analyses of suspended sediment measured in WY 2013–18 show a major reduction in suspended-sediment loads between WY 2013 and later years, indicating streamflows transporting sediment through the reservoir to downstream reaches during streambed drawdowns have become supply limited. The 6-year suspended-sediment monitoring and sampling program is insufficient to make predictions about future sediment transport conditions because of uneven monitoring periods and varying controls on reservoir sediment erosion. It is likely that future suspended-sediment loads will be variable but similar to those observed in WY 2015–18 if operational, climatic, and geomorphological factors remain similar to those monitored WY 2015–18. Suspended-sediment loads downstream from Fall Creek Lake will likely remain highest when regulating outlets are fully open and Fall Creek is free flowing with the reservoir fully drained with little to no residual pool. Over time, it is possible that the suspended-sediment loads would reflect mobilization of reservoir sediment deposited in the previous year rather than erosion of sediment deposited years or decades earlier. Bedload is likely to remain a small fraction of the total sediment load evacuated from the reservoir and is relatively modest compared with pre-dam bedload transport rates because most coarse sediment remains trapped by the dam. If sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake and ensuing streamflow conditions follow a similar pattern in the future as was assessed in this study spanning WY 2012–18, near-term geomorphic adjustments downstream of the dam are expected to be modest. Barring major operational, climatic, and geomorphological changes, local site-scale deposition on bars, overbank areas, or off-channel features that persists several months after the streambed drawdown will likely continue to be highly variable, ranging from negligible to several centimeters of deposition. At the landform-scale, low velocity areas nearest to Fall Creek Dam will likely continue to undergo rapid deposition immediately during and after a streambed drawdown event, similar to patterns observed for WY 2012–18. Some of the sediment entering these off-channel features and margin areas may be temporarily stored, then later remobilized and dispersed farther downstream. But if newly deposited sediment persists through the following spring, there is a greater likelihood that local vegetation will establish, reinforce deposited material, and trap sediment during later drawdowns. The reach-scale geomorphic changes may become more apparent if (1) streambed drawdowns continued for several decades, and geomorphic changes were measured at decadal scales or (2) the amount of sediment introduced to downstream reaches substantially increased and (or) sediment transport capacity decreased. The continued streamflow regulation of Fall Creek Dam after sediment releases provides an opportunity to strategically manage streamflows during and after the streambed drawdowns to minimize downstream sediment impacts and ensure other operational thresholds are satisfied. This study provides a comprehensive foundation of datasets and geomorphic analyses to inform dam operations at Fall Creek Lake, monitor sediment transport downstream, and consider operational schemes for future drawdowns. The datasets from this study also provide baselines of sediment transport and geomorphic conditions to assess future changes in reservoir and downstream environments. Future monitoring could be tailored to address specific questions regarding the long-term geomorphic effects of streambed drawdowns on fluvial habitats, flood hazards, cultural resources, or downstream water quality. Future monitoring activities could focus on the relevant geomorphic processes and spatial domains within the three categories used for this study: (1) reservoir erosion and net sediment evacuation, (2) sediment delivery to downstream reaches, including magnitude and temporal pattern of sediment transport, and (3) geomorphic responses of downstream reaches to sediment delivery. Specifically, high priority future monitoring activities could include: Repeat topographic or photographic surveys in the reservoir to characterize changes occurring within individual drawdowns, to quantify sediment export, to determine temporal changes in reservoir storage, and to identify locations of erosion and deposition. Continuous, year-round turbidity monitoring supplemented with suspended-sediment measurements at a streamflow-gaging station immediately downstream from the dam to quantify sediment export. Repeat geomorphic monitoring, mapping, or modeling in downstream reaches to track changes in channel and over bank features using a combination of site- and reach-scale monitoring approaches. This could support assessments of sediment deposition and ensuing vegetation encroachment on flood hazards and habitats and examine how sediment transport and depositional processes may be affected by different sediment supply, streamflow, or dam management scenarios.

Oregon

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of Virginia’s Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis conducted on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore shows that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system due to local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have fundamentally altered groundwater flow from pre-development conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers supplying groundwater is a relatively small portion of the total groundwater water budget for the aquifer system. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model show that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal water bodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer currently is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from areas outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2025, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum have resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or in adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. Downward groundwater flow continues under current conditions, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, those rates are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Estimated groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, though that was not measured directly in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, show that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up over 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. Currently, estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The current withdrawal rate from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and small rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

EarthArXiv

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon

Ground magnetic and VLF studies at Midnite uranium mine, Stevens County, Washington

Ground magnetic and E-mode VLF measurements were made at more than 200 stations at the Midnite uranium Mine, Stevens County, Washington. The equipment was found to be light and foolproof, and each set of data was collected in one day, exclusive of surveying and marking the station points. The maps of contoured magnetic and VLF data resembled geologic maps of the area, showing many common features, as well as a few unique features on each map. Each showed some evidence of a small normal fault cutting the region; taken together, the evidence for this fault was judged to be much stronger, so that further structural details were inferred. Because of soil cover and inadequate outcrops, the presence of this fault had hitherto been unsuspected. A target area for further uranium mineralization north of the fault was indicated by this quick, inexpensive geophysical survey. The drilling program which Midnite Mine management had underway at that time had already outlined a mineralized zone in the indicated area.

Washington

Analysis of factors affecting plume remediation in a sole-source aquifer system, southeastern Nassau County, New York

Several plumes of dissolved, chlorinated solvents, including trichloroethylene, have been identified in a sole-source aquifer near the former Northrop Grumman Bethpage Facility and Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant sites in southeastern Nassau County, New York. Past investigations have documented that the groundwater contamination originated from this industrial area and now extends to the south, in the direction of groundwater flow. The intermixed plumes are commonly referred to as the “Navy Grumman groundwater plume.” Detailed groundwater-flow modeling was needed for the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to evaluate design options necessary for the construction, operation, optimization, maintenance, and monitoring of a groundwater extraction and treatment cleanup plan selected in a December 2019 Amended Record of Decision by the NYSDEC to comprehensively address these plumes. Consequently, the NYSDEC began a cooperative study with the U.S. Geological Survey in 2020 to better understand the local hydrogeologic framework using two independent approaches to characterize aquifer heterogeneity and update an existing regional groundwater-flow model to provide transient boundary conditions for new inset groundwater-flow models of the plume area. We developed these detailed inset models for the two independent aquifer characterizations using history-matching techniques coupled with a novel approach to risk-based management optimization of the remedial design. We also used the updated regional model to assess this optimized groundwater extraction and treatment design for potential saltwater intrusion. The ensembles of parameters resulting from history matching provided a platform with which to evaluate capture by water-supply and remedial wells using particle-tracking techniques. Using the ensemble to select a risk stance, we performed multiobjective optimization to identify various configurations of remedial pumping that are consistent with external constraints and that favor potentially competing objectives. Multiple solutions provide tradeoffs that NYSDEC can consider. In general, pumping redistribution may help to prevent further contamination migration downgradient. These and other study results are intended to support decisions for the remedial design focused on the local area encompassing the full extent of the Navy Grumman groundwater plume.

New York

Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) Research Programme—A transdisciplinary approach to address the challenge of distributed volcanism in an urban environment

The Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) Research Programme was launched in 2008 to address the challenges associated with monogenetic volcanism in an urban setting and to enhance volcanic risk management in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland in Aotearoa New Zealand. It is a multi-agency, increasingly transdisciplinary (defined here as research that transcends traditional disciplinary boundaries by integrating diverse types of knowledge, perspectives, and methods from academic and non-academic participants to create novel solutions to complex problems), and collaborative research program jointly led by Waipapa Taumata Rau University of Auckland and Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ; formerly GNS Science), with core funding from Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake (NHC; formerly the Earthquake Commission, EQC) and Te Kaunihera o Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland Council (AC). The primary research focus of DEVORA is to investigate the geologic history, volcanic hazards, and risk posed by the basaltic intraplate Auckland Volcanic Field. Disruption from ash fall and gas from other Aotearoa New Zealand volcanoes is also considered. DEVORA’s work to explore exposure and vulnerability in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland is also useful for assessing risks from other non-volcanic natural hazards, such as seismic and tsunami hazards. The greater Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland region has an ethnically and socio-economically diverse population of approximately 1.7 million, representing about one-third of the Aotearoa New Zealand population, and hosts critical infrastructure of national significance. The size and nature of the populace, consequential economic base, and important infrastructure within Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland mean that the effects of a volcanic eruption would be felt nationally, including through the disruption of air travel to Aotearoa New Zealand. The hazards from such an eruption could potentially affect hundreds of thousands of people, businesses, and lifelines (critical infrastructure). A considerable challenge for emergency and risk managers is the monogenetic nature of the volcanic field. It is not known where or when the next eruption will occur, how much warning we may get before an eruption, nor how an eruption and its effects might unfold. In this contribution, we highlight the concept and collaborative intent of the DEVORA Programme and show how it has evolved over the 16 years since its inception. We describe how DEVORA has unified more than 100 researchers (including more than 50 graduate students) and numerous stakeholders to address key issues facing Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland and describe how research findings are being implemented into policy and communicated to stakeholder agencies and the public. We also illustrate the broader influence of the DEVORA Programme and provide some learnings that might benefit others embarking on similar integrated projects, especially those focused on distributed volcanism in and near populated areas.

Auckland

Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model

We present earthquake scenarios developed to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Scenarios can serve a range of local and regional needs, from developing proactive-targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk to aiding emergency management planning. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to communicate seismic hazard and risk to audiences who are not well versed in methods, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Specifically, we discuss the scenarios developed, challenges, and lessons learned in the development process, and how this work aided the development of the 2023 NSHM itself. In total, 28 scenarios were developed for Hawaii, Utah, Alaska, and Virginia considering the 2023 NSHM science, past scenario efforts, and input from local experts and stakeholders. Finally, we investigate how NSHM modeling decisions can change estimated impacts to Utah and Hawaii in more detail showing, for example, that a shallower dip of the Wasatch fault under Salt Lake City can increase predicted ground-motion intensities and therefore estimated losses and deaths.

Earthquake Spectra

Bayesian belief network model to predict human-wildlife conflict in protected areas

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) poses a pervasive global challenge, affecting livelihoods and threatening biodiversity. To better anticipate and mitigate HWC risk, we developed a large-scale predictive model using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). We surveyed 1,011 park rangers across 135 terrestrial protected areas in three Andean countries, documenting recent HWC incidents involving wildlife persecution or killing, livestock depredation, crop damage, or threats to human safety and property. We identified key drivers of HWC risk, including governance, wildlife acceptance, participation, and habitat quality. A sensitivity analysis revealed that enhancing governance and improving wildlife acceptance could reduce HWC risk by > 85%. The BBN model demonstrated scalability, effectively identifying strategies to reduce HWC risk at multiple scales, from individual protected areas to national networks. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening governance, increasing wildlife acceptance, and enhancing community participation in conservation efforts. BBNs provide a flexible, cost-effective, and data-driven tool to guide protected areas and wildlife managers in monitoring, anticipating, and making informed decisions to mitigate conflict and promote coexistence.

Scientific Reports

Stories in stone: The geoheritage significance of U.S. National Park Service stratotypes

The U.S. National Park Service stratotype inventory has systematically documented hundreds of published stratotypes across the country that represent a quintessential component of America’s geoheritage and possess significant scientific, educational, cultural, historic, and aesthetic values. As valuable geologic reference standards, stratotypes record intervals of Earth history relating to our nation’s unique geologic evolution, biological progression, cultural traditions, historical narratives, and stunning landforms. However, the general lack of awareness and knowledge regarding the scope, significance, distribution, and scale of stratotypes can result in these resources being overlooked. Consequently, stratotypes may inadvertently experience accidental alteration, damage, or destruction through both natural and anthropogenic processes. As with many American geoheritage sites, stratotypes lack specific recognition through legislation, policies, or other management strategies to ensure their preservation and protection. Through education and outreach, we hope to inform, increase awareness, and engage the public about these internationally and nationally significant geologic reference sites, unite various geoheritage communities, and promote their preservation for future generations.

Geoheritage

Deep-ocean macrofaunal assemblages on ferromanganese and phosphorite-rich substrates in the Southern California Borderland

Mineral-rich hardgrounds, such as ferromanganese (FeMn) crusts and phosphorites, occur on seamounts and continental margins, gaining attention for their resource potential due to their enrichment in valuable metals in some regions. This study focuses on the Southern California Borderland (SCB), an area characterized by uneven and heterogeneous topography featuring FeMn crusts, phosphorites, basalt, and sedimentary rocks that occur at varying depths and are exposed to a range of oxygen concentrations. Due to its heterogeneity, this region serves as an optimal setting for investigating the relationship between mineral-rich hardgrounds and benthic fauna. This study characterizes the density, diversity, and community composition of macrofauna (>300 μm) on hardgrounds as a function of substrate type and environment (depth and oxygen ranges). Rocks and their macrofauna were sampled quantitatively using remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) during expeditions in 2020 and 2021 at depths above, within, and below the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). A total of 3,555 macrofauna individuals were counted and 416 different morphospecies (excluding encrusting bryozoans and hydrozoans) were identified from 82 rocks at depths between 231 and 2,688 m. Average density for SCB macrofauna was 11.08 ± 0.87 ind. 200 cm −2 and mean Shannon-Wiener diversity per rock (H′ [loge] ) was 2.22 ± 0.07. A relationship was found between substrate type and macrofaunal communities. Phosphorite rocks had the highest H′ of the four substrates compared on a per-rock basis. However, when samples were pooled by substrate, FeMn crusts had the highest H′ and rarefaction diversity. Of all the environmental variables examined, water depth explained the largest variance in macrofaunal community composition. Macrofaunal density and diversity values were similar at sites within and outside the OMZ. This study is the first to analyze the macrofaunal communities of mineral-rich hardgrounds in the SCB, which support deep-ocean biodiversity by acting as specialized substrates for macrofaunal communities. Understanding the intricate relationships between macrofaunal assemblages and mineral-rich substrates may inform effects from environmental disruptions associated with deep-seabed mining or climate change. The findings contribute baseline information useful for effective conservation and management of the SCB and will support scientists in monitoring changes in these communities due to environmental disturbance or human impact in the future.

California

Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming