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Comment on "Donders, T.H. 2014. Middle Holocene humidity increase in Florida: climate or sea-level? Quaternary Science Reviews 103:170-174."

Donders (2014) has recently proposed that the climate of Florida became progressively wetter over the past 5000 years in response to a marked strengthening of the El Niño regime. This reconstruction is largely based on a re-analysis of pollen records from regions north of Lake Okeechobee ( Fig. 1 ) using a new set of pollen transfer functions. Donders concluded that a latitudinal gradient in precipitation prevailed across Florida since the mid Holocene, but the overall trend was toward progressively wetter conditions from 5000 cal BP to the present. Donders (2014) also proposed that this climatic trend extended across South Florida despite contrary paleo-records from the Everglades. In particular he singled out the Northeast Shark River Slough (NESRS) record of Glaser et al. (2013) as an atypical local signal of paleo-environmental change that was biased by a misinterpretation of the ecology of pine and Amaranthaceae (Amaranth family). In response to this direct critique of our paleo-environmental interpretation, we wish to point out that: Our interpretation of the NESRS sedimentary sequence (site 4, Fig. 1 A) was based on multiple lines of evidence that all indicate a shift from wetter to drier (i.e. less wet) conditions that occurred after 2800 cal BP. A similar climatic shift from wetter to less wet conditions was reported for this time interval from other sites in the Everglades ( Willard et al., 2006 and Willard and Bernhardt, 2011 ) and also from the Caribbean region to the east ( Hodell et al., 1991 , Hodell et al., 1995 and Higuera-Gundy et al., 1999 ). The NESRS site is located in an area where runoff collected from a 10,000 km 2 wetland prior to 1900 AD when most of the drainage from the Everglades was channeled to the sea through the narrow Shark River Slough. The sedimentary sequence at the NESRS site should therefore contain an integrated record of hydrological change across the pre-historical Everglades ( Glaser et al., 2012 ). In addition this essentially non-forested wetland is well suited to accumulate a representative sample of the regional pollen rain in its sediments (e.g. Jaccobson and Bradshaw, 1981 and Prentice, 1985 ).

Florida

Estimation of nonlinear water-quality trends in high-frequency monitoring data

Recent advances in high-frequency water-quality sensors have enabled direct measurements of physical and chemical attributes in rivers and streams nearly continuously. Water-quality trends can be used to identify important watershed-scale changes driven by natural and anthropogenic influences. Statistical methods to estimate trends using high-frequency data are lacking. To address this gap, an evaluation of the generalized additive model (GAM) approach to test for trends in high-frequency data was conducted. Our proposed framework includes methods for handling serial correlation, trend estimation and slope-change detection, and trend interpretation at arithmetic scale for log-transformed variables. Water-temperature and turbidity data, representing two analytes with different temporal patterns, collected from the James River at Cartersville, Virginia, USA, were chosen for this analysis. Results indicated that the model, including flow, season, time covariates, and interaction between flow and season performed well for both analytes. The same model structure was applied to specific conductance data, collected from a small highly urbanized watershed, with satisfactory model performance. The water temperature GAM results indicated that the significant decreasing-then-increasing patterns after 2012 were mainly driven by air temperature changes. The turbidity trend was not significant over time. The specific conductance results showed a consistently upward trend over the last decade due to ever-increasing urbanization in the small watershed. This study suggests that the GAM method has great potential as a useful tool for trend analysis on high-frequency data, and for informing watershed managers of hydro-climatic and human influences on water quality by detecting crucial signal variation over time.

Chesapeake Bay watershed

A seascape-scale habitat model to support management of fishing impacts on benthic ecosystems

Minimizing fishing impacts on seafloor ecosystems is a growing focus of ocean management; however, few quantitative tools exist to guide seascape-scale habitat management. To meet these needs, we developed a model to assess benthic ecosystem impacts from fishing gear contact. The habitat impacts model is cast in discrete time and can accommodate overlapping fisheries as well as incorporate gear-specific contact dynamics. We implemented the model in the North Pacific using fishing data from 2003 to 2017, estimating that habitat in 3.1% of the 1.2 million km 2 study area was disturbed at the end of the simulation period. A marked decline in habitat disturbance was evident since 2010, attributable to a single regulatory gear change that lifted trawl gear components off the seafloor. Running scenarios without these gear modifications showed these policies might have contributed to a 24% reduction in habitat disturbance since their implementation. Ultimately, model outputs provide direct estimates of the spatial and temporal trends of habitat effects from fishing — a key component of regulatory policies for many of the world’s fisheries.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Status of forest birds on Tinian Island, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, with an emphasis on the Tinian monarch (Monarcha takatsukasae) (Passeriformes; Monarchidae)

Landbird populations on Tinian Island have been periodically surveyed since 1982 to evaluate the status of non-native and native landbirds. We report the results of surveys in 2013 and the observed changes during 31 years in species population trends based on surveys since 1982. A total of 11 native and 3 non-native species were detected during the 2013 survey. Population sizes were estimated using point-transect distance sampling methods, and population trends were assessed using repeated measures analysis of variance for nine forest bird species. In all years, the Rufous Fantail ( Rhipidura rufifrons ) and Bridled White-eye ( Zosterops conspicillatus ) were the most abundant species, whereas the White-throated Ground Dove ( Pampusana xanthonura ) was the least abundant species in 1982, 1996, and 2008, and the Mariana Kingfisher ( Todiramphus albicilla ) was the least abundant in 2013. The less common species numbered in the low thousands included the Mariana Fruit Dove ( Ptilinopus roseicapilla ), White-throated Ground Dove, introduced Philippine Collared Dove ( Streptopelia dusumieri ), Mariana Kingfisher ( Todiramphus albicilla ), and Micronesian Myzomela ( Myzomela rubratra ). The Micronesian Starling ( Aplonis opaca ) and Tinian Monarch ( Monarcha takatsukasae ) were estimated to number in the tens of thousands. The most abundant species were the Rufous Fantail, numbering more than 100,000, and the Bridled White-eye, numbering more than 400,000. The overall trends in abundance between 1982 and 2013 showed an increase in the Mariana Kingfisher, Micronesian Starling, Rufous Fantail, White-throated Ground Dove, and Philippine Collared Dove, while populations were stable for the Bridled White-eye and Tinian Monarch. Declines were seen for the Mariana Fruit Dove and Micronesian Myzomela. These trends matched previous analyses with the exception that Tinian Monarch abundance showed an increase in the 2013 survey.

Tinian Island

Water Use in Wisconsin, 2005

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wisconsin Water Science Center is responsible for presenting data collected or estimated for water withdrawals and diversions every 5 years to the National Water-Use Information Program (NWUIP). This program serves many purposes such as quantifying how much, where, and for what purpose water is used; tracking and documenting water-use trends and changes; and providing these data to other agencies to support hydrologic projects. In 2005, data at both the county and subbasin levels were compiled into the USGS national water-use database system; these data are published in a statewide summary report and a national circular. This publication, Water Use in Wisconsin, 2005, presents the water-use estimates for 2005; this publication also describes how these water-use data were determined (including assumptions used), limitations of using these data, and trends in water-use data presented to the NWUIP. Estimates of water use in Wisconsin indicate that about 8,608 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) were withdrawn during 2005. Of this amount, about 7,622 Mgal/d (89 percent) were from surface-water sources and about 986 Mgal/d (11 percent) were from ground-water sources. Surface water used for cooling at thermoelectric-power plants constituted the largest portion of daily use at 6,898 Mgal/d. Water provided by public-supply water utilities is the second largest use of water and totaled 552 Mgal/d. Public supply served approximately 71 percent of the estimated 2005 Wisconsin population of 5.54 million people; two counties - Milwaukee and Dane - accounted for more than one-third of the public-supply withdrawal. Industrial and irrigation were the next major water uses at 471 and 402 Mgal/d, respectively. Non-irrigational agricultural (livestock and aquaculture) accounted for approximately 155 Mgal/d and is similar to the combined withdrawal for the remaining water-use categories of domestic, commercial, and mining (131 Mgal/d). Data on water use in Wisconsin by source of water and category of use have been compiled at 5-year intervals since 1950. During the past 55 years (1950-2005), water withdrawn to meet demands for public supply and self-supplied irrigation, industrial, commercial, domestic, and livestock increased 333 percent (1,117 Mgal/d). The greatest increases were for public supply, industrial, and irrigation, and are reflected in the increasing total per-capita water-use values. In recent (2000 and 2005) water-use estimation years, both public-supply and self-supplied domestic per-capita-use values have been declining. This can be attributed, at least in part, to a reduction in industrial-water deliveries, increased water-efficiency standards, and the implementation of leak-detection programs and water-conservation practices. However, when making comparisons to evaluate trends among other Wisconsin water-use estimation years, it is important to be aware of changes that may have occurred in estimation methods or objectives that create differences. Some changes that have occurred are the availability of data and information about water use, changes in data sources and estimation methods, and the inclusion and exclusion of certain water-use categories. These differences may have an effect on apparent trends and make comparing trends difficult.

Open-File Report

Reproductive biology of the green turtle (Chelonia mydas) at Tern Island, French Frigate Shoals, Hawai`i

We monitored nesting of the green turtle (Chelonia mydas Linnaeus) on Tern Island, French Frigate Shoals, in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands from 1986 through 1991. Egg oviposition occurred between 26 April and 20 October. Nesting peaked between mid-June and early August. Hatchlings emerged between mid-August and early October. Mean incubation period was 66.0 (range 53-97) days. Mean clutch size was 92.4 (range 33-150) eggs. Mean hatching success was 78.6% when averaged over success of individual nests and 81.1% when calculated as percentage of total number of eggs. Natural hatchling emergence was 71.1%, based on percentage of total number of eggs. Live and dead hatchlings were found when nests were excavated and accounted for 10.0% of the eggs. Incubation periods tended to be longer in early and later portions of the season than in midseason, and incubation periods tended to decrease the farther inland the nest was situated from the high tide line. Maximum hatching success occurred at an incubation length of 66.7 days. Other trends indicated that nesting peaked near 5 July when conditions produced a near optimal incubation period for yielding maximum hatching success.

Pacific Science

Climate science and famine early warning

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:

Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC) Coral Reef Research

Coral reefs provide important ecosystem services such as shoreline protection and the support of lucrative industries including fisheries and tourism. Such ecosystem services are being compromised as reefs decline due to coral disease, climate change, overfishing, and pollution. There is a need for focused, integrated science to understand the complex ecological interactions and effects of these many stressors and to provide information that will effectively guide policies and best management practices to preserve and restore these important resources. The U.S. Geological Survey Florida Integrated Science Center (USGS-FISC) is conducting a coordinated Coral Reef Research Project beginning in 2009. Specific research topics are aimed at addressing priorities identified in the 'Strategic Science for Coral Ecosystems 2007-2011' document (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Planned research will include a blend of historical, monitoring, and process studies aimed at improving our understanding of the development, current status and function, and likely future changes in coral ecosystems. Topics such as habitat characterization and distribution, coral disease, and trends in biogenic calcification are major themes of understanding reef structure, ecological integrity, and responses to global change.

Fact Sheet

Computer-assisted cartography: an overview.

An assessment of the current status of computer-assisted cartography, in part, is biased by one's view of the cartographic process as a whole. From a traditional viewpoint we are concerned about automating the mapping process; from a progressive viewpoint we are concerned about using the tools of computer science to convey spatial information. On the surface these viewpoints appear to be in opposition. However, it is postulated that in the final analysis, they face the same goal. This overview uses the perspectives from two viewpoints to depict the current state of computer-assisted cartography and speculate on future goals, trends, and challenges.-Authors

South African Journal of Photogrammetry, Remote Se

Holocene variations in mineral and grain-size composition along the East Greenland glaciated margin (ca 67°–70°N): local versus long-distance sediment transport

Quantitative X-Ray Diffraction (qXRD) analysis of the <2 mm sediment fraction from surface (sea floor) samples, and marine sediment cores that span the last 10-12 cal ka BP, are used to describe spatial and temporal variations in non-clay mineral compositions for an area between Kangerlussuaq Trough and Scoresby Sund (???67??-70??N), East Greenland. Bedrock consists primarily of an early Tertiary alkaline complex with high weight% of pyroxene and plagioclase. Farther inland and to the north, the bedrock is dominantly felsic with a high fraction of quartz and potassium feldspars. Principal Component (PC) analysis of the non-clay sediment compositions indicates the importance of quartz and pyroxene as compositional end members, with an abrupt shift from quartz and k-feldspar dominated sediments north of Scoresby Sund to sediments rich in pyroxene and plagioclase feldspars offshore from the early Tertiary basaltic outcrop. Coarse (<2 mm or <1 mm) ice-rafted sediments are largely absent from the trough sediments between ???8 and 5 cal ka BP, but then increase in the last 4 cal ka BP. Compositional unmixing of the sediments in Grivel Basin and Kangerlussuaq Trough indicate the dominance of local over long distance sediment sources, with pulses of sediment from tidewater glaciers in Kangerlussuaq and Nansen fjords reaching the inner shelf during the Neoglaciation. The change in IRD is more dramatic in the sediment grain-size proxies than in the quartz wt%. Forty to seventy percent of the variance in the quartz records from either side of Denmark Strait is explained by low frequency trends, but the data from the Grivel Basin, East Greenland, are distinctly different, with an approximate 2500 yr periodicity. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Quaternary Science Reviews

Trends in nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment concentrations and loads in streams draining to Lake Tahoe, California, Nevada, USA

Lake Tahoe, a large freshwater lake of the eastern Sierra Nevada in California and Nevada, has 63 tributaries that are sources of nutrients and sediment to the lake. The Tahoe watershed is relatively small, and the surface area of the lake occupies about 38% of the watershed area (1313 km 2 ). Only about 6% of the watershed is urbanized or residential land, and as part of a plan to maintain water clarity, wastewater is exported out of the basin. The lake's clarity has been diminishing due to algae and fine sediment, prompting development of management plans. Much of the annual discharge and nutrient load to the lake results from snowmelt in the spring and summer months. To understand the relative importance of land use, climate, forest management, and other factors affecting trends in nutrient stream concentrations and loads, a Weighted Regression on Time Discharge and Season (WRTDS) model simulated these trends over a time frame of >25 years (mid-1970s to 2017). All studied locations generally show nitrate concentration and load trending down. Ammonium concentration and load initially trended down then increased continuously after 2005. Some locations show initially decreasing orthophosphate trends, followed by small significant increases in concentration and loads starting around 2000 to 2005. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus and suspended sediment mostly trended downward. Overall, the trends in various forms of nitrogen were observed at most sites irrespective of the degree of development and indicate a change in ecological conditions is affecting the nitrogen cycle throughout the watershed, most likely attributable to forest aggradation and fire suppression. Ratios of bioavailable nitrogen in the form of nitrate and ammonium to orthophosphate have also trended downward during the period of record suggesting a shift of these streams from phosphorus limited to nitrogen limited.

California, Nevada

Tracking and forecasting the Nation’s water quality - Priorities and strategies for 2013-2023

Water-quality issues facing the Nation are growing in number and complexity, and solutions are becoming more challenging and costly. Key factors that affect the quality of our drinking water supplies and ecosystem health include contaminants of human and natural origin in streams and groundwater; excess nutrients and sediment; alteration of natural streamflow; eutrophication of lakes, reservoirs, and coastal estuaries; and changes in surface and groundwater quality associated with changes in climate, land and water use, and management practices. Tracking and forecasting the Nation's water quality in the face of these and other pressing water-quality issues are important goals for 2013-2023, the third decade of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. In consultation with stakeholders and the National Research Council, a new strategic Science Plan has been developed that describes a strategy for building upon and enhancing assessment of the Nation's freshwater quality and aquatic ecosystems. The plan continues strategies that have been central to the NAWQA program's long-term success, but it also makes adjustments to the monitoring and modeling approaches NAWQA will use to address critical data and science information needs identified by stakeholders. This fact sheet describes surface-water and groundwater monitoring and modeling activities that will start in fiscal year 2013. It also provides examples of the types of data and information products planned for the next decade, including (1) restored monitoring for reliable and timely status and trend assessments, (2) maps and models that show the distribution of selected contaminants (such as atrazine, nitrate, and arsenic) in streams and aquifers, and (3) Web-based modeling tools that allow managers to evaluate how water quality may change in response to different scenarios of population growth, climate change, or land-use management.

Fact Sheet

Long-term trends in abundance and potential drivers for eight species of coastal birds in the U.S. South Atlantic

The U.S. South Atlantic coastal region is used by many marine birds for foraging, reproduction, and migration. We developed standardized indices of relative abundance from long–term (1980–2016), semi-structured monitoring data (eBird) for eight species: Brown Pelican ( Pelecanus occidentalis ), Double-Crested Cormorant ( Nannopterum auritum ), White Ibis ( Eudocimus albus ), Wood Stork ( Mycteria americana ), Piping Plover ( Charadrius melodus ), American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ), Clapper Rail ( Rallus crepitans ), and Northern Gannet ( Morus bassanus ). Following a period of stable or declining abundance from the 1980s through the 1990s, most species have shown stable or slightly upward trends through the late 2000s; Brown Pelican and Piping Plover have shown some evidence of recent declines. Species–specific correlations between abundance indices developed from presence/absence data and those developed from count data were positive for all species and ranged from 0.53 to 0.86. Dynamic factor analysis identified common trends in abundance among several species, in particular, Brown Pelican, Double–Crested Cormorant, and White Ibis. Model performance was improved with inclusion of an indicator of sea level rise, but not forage fish abundance or temperature, indicating habitat availability mediated by changing water levels may explain some of the underlying abundance trends. Our results provide baseline information on long–term trends for several important coastal birds that can help inform research, monitoring and conservation efforts in the U.S. South Atlantic region.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina

Multiple-bench architecture and interpretations of original mire phases - Examples from the Middle Pennyslvanian of the Central Appalachian Basin, USA

Coal seams often exhibit lateral and vertical variability in composition. When sampled as a whole seam this variability is masked. But if a seam is subdivided into correlateable components, this variability can be tested and better understood. Herein, an architectural approach is used to divide seams into intra-seam components. Clastic splits and mineral partings, as well as persistent fusain and durain layers, can be used as intra-seam bounding units to subdivide a seam into subdivisions called benches. Regional examination of Lower and Middle Pennsylvanian-age coal seams shows that many contain laterally persistent bounding surfaces that can be used to define multiple benches of coal within each seam. Inter-bench analyses from some of the most extensively mined seams in the central Appalachian Basin show that individual benches often have different spatial and quality trends. Hence, some component of whole-seam variability is a function of changes in the relative contribution of these different benches to the seam as a whole. Many coal benches also exhibit intra-bench variation in coal parameters. Intra-bench variation can be analyzed in terms of parameters such as sulfur content and ash yield in order to address changes in coal quality for regional resource evaluation. Intra-bench variation can also be analyzed in terms of a combination of palynologic, petrographic, and geochemical parameters, termed compositional groups, in order to better understand the development of the original mire systems. Compositional groups are defined by ranges of multiple criteria, which are inferred to owe their origin to the mire type in which they formed. Vertical changes in compositional groups within coal benches can be used to infer paleo-edaphic conditions during peat accumulation. If seam thickness is a product of bench configuration, and trends in compositional groups occur in benches, then trends in quality can be marginally predicted based upon seam thickness and inferred bench architecture. Additionally, changes in inter-bench and intra-bench thickness and compositional profiles can be used to infer original depositional controls, such as paleotopography, syndepositional structural movement, and syndepositional clastic influx for more accurate reserve estimates. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Fort Collins Science Center: Species and Habitats of Federal Interest

Ecosystem changes directly affect a wide variety of plant and animal species, floral and faunal communities, and groups of species such as amphibians and grassland birds. Appropriate management of public lands plays a crucial role in the conservation and recovery of endangered species and can be a key element in preventing a species from being listed under the Endangered Species Act. The Species and Habitats of Federal Interest Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) conducts research on the ecology, habitat requirements, distribution and abundance, population dynamics, and genetics and systematics of many species facing threatened or endangered status or of special concern to resource management agencies. FORT scientists develop reintroduction and restoration techniques, technologies for monitoring populations, and novel methods to analyze data on population trends and habitat requirements. FORT expertise encompasses both traditional and specialized natural resource disciplines within wildlife biology, including population dynamics, animal behavior, plant and community ecology, inventory and monitoring, statistics and computer applications, conservation genetics, stable isotope analysis, and curatorial expertise.

Fact Sheet

Clutch sizes and nests of tailed frogs from the Olympic Peninsula, Washington

In the summers 1995-1998, we sampled 168 streams (1,714 in of randomly selected 1-m bands) to determine distribution and abundance of stream amphibians in Olympic National Park, Washington. We found six nests (two in one stream) of the tailed frog, compared to only two nests with clutch sizes reported earlier for coastal regions. This represents only one nest per 286 in searched and one nest per 34 streams sampled. Tailed frogs occurred only in 94 (60%) of the streams and, for these waters, we found one nest per 171 in searched or one nest per 20 streams sampled. The numbers of eggs for four masses ((x) over bar = 48.3, range 40-55) were low but one single strand in a fifth nest had 96 eggs. One nest with 185 eggs likely represented communal egg deposition. Current evidence indicates a geographic trend with yearly clutches of relatively few eggs in coastal tailed frogs compared to biennial nesting with larger clutches for inland populations in the Rocky Mountains.

Northwest Science

Pesticides in U.S. streams and rivers: occurrence and trends during 1992-2011

During the 20 years from 1992 to 2011, pesticides were found at concentrations that exceeded aquatic-life benchmarks in many rivers and streams that drain agricultural, urban, and mixed-land use watersheds. Overall, the proportions of assessed streams with one or more pesticides that exceeded an aquatic-life benchmark were very similar between the two decades for agricultural (69% during 1992−2001 compared to 61% during 2002−2011) and mixed-land-use streams (45% compared to 46%). Urban streams, in contrast, increased from 53% during 1992−2011 to 90% during 2002−2011, largely because of fipronil and dichlorvos. The potential for adverse effects on aquatic life is likely greater than these results indicate because potentially important pesticide compounds were not included in the assessment. Human-health benchmarks were much less frequently exceeded, and during 2002−2011, only one agricultural stream and no urban or mixed-land-use streams exceeded human-health benchmarks for any of the measured pesticides. Widespread trends in pesticide concentrations, some downward and some upward, occurred in response to shifts in use patterns primarily driven by regulatory changes and introductions of new pesticides.

Environmental Science & Technology