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Coastal mapping programs at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wetlands Research Center

Over the past 10 years, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) National Wetlands Research Center (center; formerly the National Coastal Ecosystems Team) has been continuously involved in the production of maps for use by coastal decision makers. The types of maps produced by the center have been national, regional, or local in scope depending on user needs. Map scales have ranged from 1:24,000 to 1:250,000. Themes depicted have included biological resources, including wetlands and seagrasses; upland habitat or land use; water resources such as water quality, bathymetry, and salinity; cultural features such as ownership, archaeological sites, and dredge-spoil disposal areas; and soils and landforms. We present overviews on the various mapping programs of the center. We highlight efforts such as the ecological inventories of the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts; the ecological characterization atlases of the Gulf of Mexico; and the large scale (1:24,000) habitat maps of various coastal regions of the United States. Center methods and techniques are discussed, including the collaborative efforts between the center and FWS's National Wetlands Inventory for updating wetland maps and adding upland and seagrass bed delineations to inventory maps. We also make recommendations for future coastal ecosystem mapping programs that use conventional and automated mapping methodologies, such as geographic information systems and image processing.

Biological Report

Nearshore single-beam bathymetry data collected in 2015, Dauphin Island, Alabama

Dauphin Island, Alabama, is a barrier island located in the northern Gulf of Mexico that supports local residences, tourism, commercial infrastructure, and historic Fort Gaines. During the past decade, Dauphin Island was affected by several major hurricanes—Hurricanes Ivan (2004), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012)—and storms, along with sea-level rise, continue to present a threat to island stability. State and Federal managers are using a scientific approach to identify, formulate, and implement a long-term plan to provide restoration options for Dauphin Island, thereby helping increase its resilience against future storms and sea-level rise. Island morphology, including current bathymetry and shoreline data, is one scientific domain being investigated in an effort to produce a comprehensive restoration plan funded by an interagency grant from the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Gulf Environmental Benefit Fund . In August 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS ) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center ( SPCMSC ), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers at the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Mobile District, and the State of Alabama, conducted bathymetric surveys of the nearshore waters surrounding Dauphin Island. This report provides a detailed methodology for the data acquisition and post-processing of 1,165-line kilometers (km) of single-beam bathymetry data collected under the USGS–SPCMSC Alabama Barrier Island Restoration Study . These data were acquired and processed under USGS field activity number 2015–326–FA . Data are provided in three datums: (1) the International Terrestrial Reference Frame of 2000, ellipsoid height (from –47.04 meters (m) to –29.36 m); (2) the North American Datum of 1983, CORS96 realization (NAD83 (CORS96)) horizontal, and the North American Vertical Datum 1988 GEOID12A vertical (from –0.24 m to –17.33 m); and (3) NAD83 (CORS96) horizontal, and mean lower low water vertical (from –0.12 m to –17.93 m). The x,y,z point datasets, trackline shapefiles, digital and handwritten Field Activity Collection Systems logs, one 50-m digital elevation model, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee metadata are obtainable from the Data Downloads page or the associated USGS data release .

Alabama

Monitoring wildlife habitat: A critique of approaches

Naturalists have long recognized that wildlife cannot exist in a natural state without adequate habitat. Habitat monitoring is an effort to monitor the physical conditions that provide life support for the species, given the underlying assumption that if the habitat is available the species will respond and fill that habitat with viable populations. Techniques for habitat monitoring are varied and depend on the species involved, geographical area, and resources available. At a very gross level, habitat monitoring may be little more than the monitoring of major vegetative associations: time series analysis of aerial photography is an excellent mechanism to monitor the changes in hectares of specified vegetative associations, which are surrogate measures of habitat. One approach uses population monitoring to determine habitat availability. Unfortunately, many researchers fail to recognize that population levels may or may not reflect habitat quality or habitat availability. Another approach is to monitor species richness or species diversity. Finally, the habitat components that compose quality habitat for a species or species group can be used for monitoring. This approach results in the identification of important habitat attributes that can be measured independent of the presence of the species. A thorough understanding of the biological system being monitored is paramount to the development of sound monitoring study design.

Statistical Journal of the United Nations ECE

Application of Wind Fetch and Wave Models for Habitat Rehabilitation and Enhancement Projects

Models based upon coastal engineering equations have been developed to quantify wind fetch length and several physical wave characteristics including significant height, length, peak period, maximum orbital velocity, and shear stress. These models, developed using Environmental Systems Research Institute's ArcGIS 9.2 Geographic Information System platform, were used to quantify differences in proposed island construction designs for three Habitat Rehabilitation and Enhancement Projects (HREPs) in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers St. Paul District (Capoli Slough and Harpers Slough) and St. Louis District (Swan Lake). Weighted wind fetch was calculated using land cover data supplied by the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) for each island design scenario for all three HREPs. Figures and graphs were created to depict the results of this analysis. The difference in weighted wind fetch from existing conditions to each potential future island design was calculated for Capoli and Harpers Slough HREPs. A simplistic method for calculating sediment suspension probability was also applied to the HREPs in the St. Paul District. This analysis involved determining the percentage of days that maximum orbital wave velocity calculated over the growing seasons of 2002-2007 exceeded a threshold value taken from the literature where fine unconsolidated sediments may become suspended. This analysis also evaluated the difference in sediment suspension probability from existing conditions to the potential island designs. Bathymetric data used in the analysis were collected from the LTRMP and wind direction and magnitude data were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center.

Open-File Report

Development of an aerial population survey method for elk (Cervus elaphus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Executive Summary Since the early 1990s, substantial effort and funding have been expended to conduct research to guide development of a 20-year Elk and Vegetation Management Plan for Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) in Colorado. One goal of the plan is to maintain the elk ( Cervus elaphus ) population size at the lower end of the natural range of variation. To implement management actions called for in the plan, accurate and reliable population estimates are needed, as well as a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of elk. The previous aerial survey protocol and population estimation model used by the park had not been updated since the model’s initial calibration more than 15 years ago and the model was developed with an insufficient number (n=44) of observations. Thus we initiated research to reevaluate, update, and improve elk population estimation protocols for RMNP. We considered several alternative survey and analysis methods, and concluded that a hybrid population-estimation model using a simultaneous double-observer technique with sighting covariates was the most appropriate and effective aerial survey methodology for this population and the environmental conditions in RMNP. Instructional protocols for conducting these surveys in the future, along with datasheets, are provided in this report’s appendixes. To develop an improved method for aerial elk surveys, we used elk radio-collar location data from our study and other studies, and applied geographic information system analyses to define the survey area and develop effective, repeatable survey transect lines. We used telemetry data from radio-collared elk to inform our understanding of the temporal and spatial scale of elk movements across the park boundary, elk use of tree cover during potential survey hours, and elk use of different elevations within their range. Determining where elk were during surveys helped to fine-tune a survey design that improved spatial cover-age and decreased costs where possible, while standardizing the method to make it repeatable from year to year. We conducted aerial helicopter surveys to test our methodology in an adaptive, iterative process during three winters: 2007–2008, 2008–2009, and 2009–2010. We gained new information on each survey and used results to refine subsequent surveys. Our results confirm that elk movements were highly dynamic with respect to park boundary crossings; an average of six round trips from the park to Estes Park, Colorado, and back per month were taken by global positioning system-collared bull elk. We observed a strong diurnal temporal pattern of bull elk use of trees; elk were found in dense tree cover from 15:00−22:00 but not as often during morning and early afternoon hours when surveys were conducted. We used information on elk use of different altitudes to refine and establish a more efficient survey area. During the time of our study, a concurrent study in the park deployed 120 very high frequency radio collars on elk cows. We used those collar locations during our flights to increase sample size and to evaluate the level of precision we would gain by using “known fates analysis” (in which elk were known to be in the survey area, out of the survey area, or deceased based on radio-collar locations collected simultaneously during aerial surveys). Using radio-collar locations reduced bias by 1.1–8.8 percent and increased precision (that is, reduced the width of confidence intervals). This report provides final population estimates analyzed with and without radio-collar data to demonstrate what is gained by using marked individuals.

Colorado

Hydrogeology and water quality of the Leetown area, West Virginia

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Leetown Science Center and the co-located U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Center for Cool and Cold Water Aquaculture both depend on large volumes of cold clean ground water to support research operations at their facilities. Currently, ground-water demands are provided by three springs and two standby production wells used to augment supplies during periods of low spring flow. Future expansion of research operations at the Leetown Science Center is dependent on assessing the availability and quality of water to the facilities and in locating prospective sites for additional wells to augment existing water supplies. The hydrogeology of the Leetown area, West Virginia, is a structurally complex karst aquifer. Although the aquifer is a karst system, it is not typical of most highly cavernous karst systems, but is dominated by broad areas of fractured rock drained by a relatively small number of solution conduits. Characterization of the aquifer by use of fluorometric tracer tests, a common approach in most karst terranes, therefore only partly defines the hydrogeologic setting of the area. In order to fully assess the hydrogeology and water quality in the vicinity of Leetown, a multi-disciplinary approach that included both fractured rock and karst research components was needed. The U.S. Geological Survey developed this multi-disciplinary research effort to include geologic, hydrologic, geophysical, geographic, water-quality, and microbiological investigations in order to fully characterize the hydrogeology and water quality of the Leetown area, West Virginia. Detailed geologic and karst mapping provided the framework on which hydrologic investigations were based. Fracture trace and lineament analysis helped locate potential water-bearing fractures and guided installation of monitoring wells. Monitoring wells were drilled for borehole geophysical surveys, water-quality sampling, water-level measurements, and aquifer tests to characterize the quality of water and the hydraulic properties of the aquifer. Surface geophysical surveys provided a 3-dimensional view of bedrock resistivity in order to assess geologic and lithologic controls on ground-water flow. Borehole geophysical surveys were conducted in monitoring wells to assess the storage and movement of water in subsurface fractures. Numerous single-well, multi-well, and straddle packer aquifer tests and step-drawdown tests were conducted to define the hydraulic properties of the aquifer and to assess the role of bedrock fractures and solution conduits in the flow of ground water. Water samples collected from wells and springs were analyzed to assess the current quality of ground water and provide a baseline for future assessment. Microbiological sampling of wells for indicator bacteria and human and animal DNA provided an analysis of agricultural and suburban development impacts on ground-water quality. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data were analyzed to develop digital elevation models (DEMs) for assessing sinkhole distribution, to provide elevation data for development of a ground-water flow model, and to assess the distribution of major fractures and faults in the Leetown area. The flow of ground water in the study area is controlled by lithology and geologic structure. Bedrock, especially low permeability units such as the shale Martinsburg Formation and the Conococheague Limestone, act as barriers to water flowing down gradient and across bedding. This retardation of cross-strike flow is especially pronounced in the Leetown area, where bedding typically dips at steep angles. Highly permeable fault and fracture zones that disrupt the rocks in cross-strike directions provide avenues through which ground water can flow laterally across or through strata of low primary permeability. Significant strike parallel thrust faults and cross-strike faults typically coincide with larger solution conduits and act as drains for the more pervasive network of interconnected diffuse fractures. Results of borehole geophysical surveys indicate that although numerous fractures may intersect a borehole, only one or two of the fractures typically transmit most of the water to a well. The diffuse-flow dominated network of fractures that provides the majority of storage occupies only a small proportion of the total aquifer volume but constitutes the majority of porosity within the aquifer. Solution conduits, while occupying a relatively small volume of the overall aquifer, are especially important because they serve as primary drains for the ground-water flow system. Surface resistivity maps and cross-sectionsshow anomalous areas of low resistivities coincident with the prevailing geologic strike at N. 20º E., with major cross-strike faults, and with major springs in the region. Transmissivity derived from straddle packer tests was highly variable, and ranged over three orders of magnitude (1.8 x 10 -6 to 5.9 x 10 -3 ft 2 /d) in diffuse-flow fractures. A similar large variability in transmissivity was documented by single- and multi-well aquifer tests conducted in conduit-flow dominated portions of the aquifer (2.0 x 10 3 to 1.4 x 10 4 ft 2 /d) in lowland areas immediately adjacent to the Leetown Science Center. A stream-gaging station installed on Hopewell Run near the point where the stream exits the Leetown watershed indicates average daily streamflow for the Hopewell Run of approximately 11.2 ft 3 /s, and ranged from a minimum of 1.80 ft 3 /s on September 28, 2005, to a maximum of 73.0 ft 3 /s on December 11, 2003. Base-flow (ground-water) discharge surveys identified numerous small seeps adjacent to streams in the area. Hydrographs of the stage of Balch Spring show rapid response to individual storms. Strong correlation of the flow of Hopewell Run and Balch Spring indicates the nearby losing stream reach is partly responsible for higher fluctuations in the stage of Balch Spring. A water budget for the study period (2003-2005), based on measured precipitation and hydrograph analyses, is expressed as Precipitation (38.60 in/yr) = Surface Runoff (1.36 in/yr) + Ground-Water Discharge (17.73 in/yr) + Evapotranspiration (24.23 in/yr) – Change in storage (4.72 in/yr). Flow of ground water through the epikarst, a shallow zone of intensely weathered rock and regolith, can be rapid (on the order of days or weeks) as flow is concentrated in solution conduits. Flow within the intermediate and deeper zones is typically much slower. Eight dye-tracer tests conducted in the Leetown area found ground-water flow patterns to be divergent, with velocities ranging from about 12.5 to 610 ft/day and a median velocity of 50 ft/day. Estimates of ground-water age in carbonate rocks in the region are on the order of 15 years in the shallower portions of the aquifer to 50 years or older for deeper portions of the aquifer. Shallow springs can have a significant component of fairly young water (< 5 years in age). Ground-water samples collected from 16 sites (12 wells and 4 springs) in the Leetown area were analyzed for more than 340 constituents. Only turbidity, indicator bacteria, and radon were typically present in concentrations exceeding U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) drinking-water or aquatic life standards.

West Virginia

Proceedings of Conference XIII, evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk

The participants in the conference concluded that a great deal of useful research has been performed in the national Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers and that the state-of-knowledge concerning the evaluation of seismic hazards and risk has been advanced substantially. Many of the technical issues raised during the conference are less controversial now because of new information and insights gained during the first three years of the expanded research program conducted under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act. Utilization of research results by many groups of users has also improved during this period and further improvement in utilization appears likely. Additional research is still required to resolve more completely the many complex technical issues summarized above and described in the papers contained in the proceedings. Improved certainty of research results on the evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk is required before full utilization can be made by state and local governments who deal. with people frequently having a different perception of the hazard and its risk to them than that perceived by scientists or engineers. Each of the papers contained in the proceedings contain throughtful recommendations for improving the state-of-knowledge. Two papers, in particular, focussed on this particular theme. The first was presented by Lynn Sykes in the Geologic Keynote Address. He identified geographic areas throughout the world which may be considered as counterparts or analogues of seismic zones in the United States. He concluded that much can be learned about prediction, tectonic settings, earthquake hazards, and earthquake risk for sites in the United States by studying their tectonic analogues in other countries. The second paper was presented by John Blume in the Engineering Keynote Address. He suggested 20 specific research topics that, in his opinion, will significantly advance the state-of-the-art in earthquakeresistant design. The papers by Sykes and Blume are presented in the front of the proceedings.

Open-File Report

Computer Program for Point Location And Calculation of ERror (PLACER)

A program designed for point location and calculation of error (PLACER) was developed as part of the Quality Assurance Program of the Federal Highway Administration/U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Data and Methodology Synthesis (NDAMS) review process. The program provides a standard method to derive study-site locations from site maps in highwayrunoff, urban-runoff, and other research reports. This report provides a guide for using PLACER, documents methods used to estimate study-site locations, documents the NDAMS Study-Site Locator Form, and documents the FORTRAN code used to implement the method. PLACER is a simple program that calculates the latitude and longitude coordinates of one or more study sites plotted on a published map and estimates the uncertainty of these calculated coordinates. PLACER calculates the latitude and longitude of each study site by interpolating between the coordinates of known features and the locations of study sites using any consistent, linear, user-defined coordinate system. This program will read data entered from the computer keyboard and(or) from a formatted text file, and will write the results to the computer screen and to a text file. PLACER is readily transferable to different computers and operating systems with few (if any) modifications because it is written in standard FORTRAN. PLACER can be used to calculate study site locations in latitude and longitude, using known map coordinates or features that are identifiable in geographic information data bases such as USGS Geographic Names Information System, which is available on the World Wide Web.

Open-File Report

StreamStats: A water resources web application

Streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent flood, the mean flow, and the 7-day 10-year low flow, are used by engineers, land managers, biologists, and many others to help guide decisions in their everyday work. For example, estimates of the 1-percent flood (the flow that is exceeded, on average, once in 100 years and has a 1-percent chance of being exceeded in any year, sometimes referred to as the 100-year flood) are used to create flood-plain maps that form the basis for setting insurance rates and land-use zoning. This and other streamflow statistics also are used for dam, bridge, and culvert design; water-supply planning and management; water-use appropriations and permitting; wastewater and industrial discharge permitting; hydropower facility design and regulation; and the setting of minimum required streamflows to protect freshwater ecosystems. In addition, researchers, planners, regulators, and others often need to know the physical and climatic characteristics of the drainage basins (basin characteristics) and the influence of human activities, such as dams and water withdrawals, on streamflow upstream from locations of interest to understand the mechanisms that control water availability and quality at those locations. Knowledge of the streamflow network and downstream human activities also is necessary to adequately determine whether an upstream activity, such as a water withdrawal, can be allowed without adversely affecting downstream activities. Streamflow statistics could be needed at any location along a stream. Most often, streamflow statistics are needed at ungaged sites, where no streamflow data are available to compute the statistics. At U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data-collection stations, which include streamgaging stations, partial-record stations, and miscellaneous-measurement stations, streamflow statistics can be computed from available data for the stations. Streamflow data are collected continuously at streamgaging stations. Streamflow measurements are collected systematically over a period of years at partial-record stations to estimate peak-flow or low-flow statistics. Streamflow measurements usually are collected at miscellaneous-measurement stations for specific hydrologic studies with various objectives. StreamStats is a Web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) application (fig. 1) that was created by the USGS, in cooperation with Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI) 1 , to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management. StreamStats functionality is based on ESRI's ArcHydro Data Model and Tools, described on the Web at http://support.esri.com/index.cfm?fa=downloads.dataModels.filteredGateway&dmid=15 . StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and descriptive information for USGS data-collection stations and user-selected ungaged sites. It also allows users to identify stream reaches that are upstream and downstream from user-selected sites, and to identify and obtain information for locations along the streams where activities that may affect streamflow conditions are occurring. This functionality can be accessed through a map-based user interface that appears in the user’s Web browser (fig. 1), or individual functions can be requested remotely as Web services by other Web or desktop computer applications. StreamStats can perform these analyses much faster than historically used manual techniques. StreamStats was designed so that each state would be implemented as a separate application, with a reliance on local partnerships to fund the individual applications, and a goal of eventual full national implementation. Idaho became the first state to implement StreamStats in 2003. By mid-2008, 14 states had applications available to the public, and 18 other states were in various stages of implementation.

Fact Sheet

Genetic characterization of brown bears of the Kodiak Archipelago

Here we examine genetic characteristics of brown bears of Kodiak and Afognak islands, using 14 variable nuclear microsatellite loci and nucleotide sequence information including the hypervariable domain I of the mtDNA control region (Wakely 1993). Because these markers, or a subset of them, have been used to characterize brown bears of the Kenai Peninsula (Jackson et al. 2005), Katmai National Park, Seward Peninsula, and nine other populations in Alaska (Talbot, unpublished data), we compared levels of genetic diversity and relationships among populations when possible. In addition, we obtained preliminary comparative information from class II DQA and DQB genes of the brown bear MHC, to examine levels of variation at this important immunology-mediating supergene. These data were used to answer the following questions: 1) are earlier findings of extremely low levels of variability at nuclear (biparentallyinherited) microsatellite loci from a small geographic area (Paetkau et al. 1998b) representative of Kodiak Archipelago populations as a whole? 2) Is the level and type of variation at the maternally-inherited mtDNA lower, or similar to, levels found in other populations in Alaska? 3) Is there concordance between low levels of genetic variation observed at neutral markers with levels of variation observed at functional genes? 4) Is there population substructuring within Kodiak and Afognak islands? 5) What is the connectivity between populations on Afognak Island and Kodiak Island? 6) What are the phylogeographic relationships between bears of the Kodiak Archipelago with brown bears on mainland Alaskan and other western Beringian populations? We also test whether these markers will provide an appropriate baseline for designing genetic tagging studies for use in future research and management activities, such as mark-recapture efforts, on the Refuge.

Alaska

Agency approach to allocation of human capital and program composition for human-marine mammal interaction management in the United States

Introduction: Marine mammals have served important and diverse roles throughout human history. Once exploited to near extinction, many species in the United States (U.S.) have recovered dramatically under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). The U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has jurisdiction to administer the MMPA for cetaceans and most pinnipeds. While most take is now prohibited, NMFS still dedicates significant time and resources to protecting and conserving marine mammals. As human populations continue to grow and exploit marine environments, opportunities for human-marine mammal interactions (HMMI) have increased. Resources may fail to keep up with growing needs for conservation investments, so that many agencies struggle to adequately meet social and legal requirements. Methods: This study evaluated NMFS’ approach to addressing HMMI through a mixed-methods (semi-structured interviews, quantitative questionnaire, and facilitated workshops) expert elicitation analysis of resource allocation (i.e., staff time) and priorities of NMFS Science Center (SC) and Regional Office (RO) staff across five geographic regions to understand how employee time is allocated, the degree to which employee time allocation is aligned with self-reported job descriptions, and employee perceptions of actions or investments which would improve their ability to mitigate HMMI. Results and Discussion: SC staff reported spending more time on Biological and Administrative tasks , while RO staff allocated more time to Policy, Social science , and Outreach tasks . SC employees spent less time on Biological tasks than specified by their perceived job descriptions, suggesting resource constraints. Participants identified Biological research and monitoring as top priorities, followed by Policy tasks . Identified actions included increasing research capacity, enhancing enforcement, expanding social science expertise, and improving outreach programs. The study reveals mismatches between mandated activities and available resources, suggesting strategic reallocation or increased funding may benefit the agency in effectively addressing growing HMMI challenges.

Frontiers in Marine Science

POLARIS properties: 30-meter probabilistic maps of soil properties over the contiguous United States

Soils play a critical role in the cycling of water, energy, and carbon in the Earth system. Until recently, due primarily to a lack of soil property maps of a sufficiently high‐quality and spatial detail, a minor emphasis has been placed on providing high‐resolution measured soil parameter estimates for land surface models and hydrologic models. This study introduces Probabilistic Remapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) soil properties—a database of 30‐m probabilistic soil property maps over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The mapped variables over CONUS include soil texture, organic matter, pH, saturated hydraulic conductivity, Brooks‐Corey and Van Genuchten water retention curve parameters, bulk density, and saturated water content. POLARIS soil properties was assembled by (1) depth harmonizing and aggregating the pedons in the National Cooperative Soil Survey Soil Characterization Database and the components in Soil Survey Geographic Database into a database of 21,481 different soil series, each soil series having its own vertical profiles of different soil properties, (2) pruning the original POLARIS soil series maps using conventional soil maps to improve soil series prediction accuracy, and (3) merging the assembled soil series databases with the pruned POLARIS soil series maps to construct the soil property maps over CONUS. POLARIS soil properties includes 100‐bin histograms for each layer and variable per grid cell and a series of summary statistics at 30‐, 300‐, and 3,000‐m spatial resolution. Evaluation of POLARIS soil properties using in situ measurements shows an average R2 of 0.41, normalized root‐mean‐square error of 12%, and a normalized mean absolute error of 8.8%.

Water Resources Research

Developing a temporal database of urban development for the Baltimore/Washington region

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC), and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are working together as a multiagency, multidisciplinary team in developing a temporal database that documents the growth of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan region. This database consists of urban development, principal transportation, shoreline, and population density change. The urban development theme, considered a primary data layer in the study of urban land transformation resulting from human impact on the land, is the focus of this paper. The Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics and Human Impacts Study builds on earlier research efforts that mapped urban land use change for the San Francisco Bay area (Acevedo and Bell, 1994; Bell and others, 1995; Kirtland and others, 1994). In developing a temporal database (Acevedo and others, in press), the team participants hope to provide data that can be used to study patterns of urban growth; assess ecological, environmental, and climatic impacts of urban change; and model and predict future urbanization patterns and impacts (Clarke and others, 1996). Both the San Francisco and Baltimore-Washington regions were selected because of the rapid urban growth and resulting impacts on their ecosystems. The Chesapeake Bay region in particular has undergone extensive environmental agitation due to the hydrologic problems that have arisen from the increase in impermeable surfaces and structures, that is buildings and pavement that physically cover the soil. Because of the inability of water to percolate into the ground, little purification occurs by filtration. Water runs over paved surfaces and quickly washes high levels of toxins directly into the water system. Toxins like gasoline, oil, and fertilizer have dramatically affected the local streams, rivers, and the bay. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. This paper describes the techniques used to map the extent of urban areas for Phase I and does not discuss Phase II in detail because the work is still in progress. In this study, urban development is defined as areas of intensive use, with much of the land covered by structures. The built-up areas are characterized by the existence of a systematic street pattern, and the relative concentration of buildings and associated intensive use areas, such as parking lots. Using this definition, urban development does not refer to political boundaries and may include incorporated or unincorporated areas as well as military reservations. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. To build the urban component of the temporal database, a multidisciplinary team was assembled and a phased approach initiated. Expanding on procedures developed for the San Francisco Regional Study (Bell and others, 1995), the team developed data definitions, a classification scheme, compilation criteria, mapping specifications, guidelines for source materials, and metadata specifications to support development of a logically consistent dataset. Extensive documentation procedures were established to ensure consistency in data collection, and for subsequent application to other regions. Phase II was the implementation of the regional mapping effort. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. The study area for Phase I consisted of an approximate area of 15- by 15-minute segment centered around the city of Baltimore (fig. 1). Phase I was used as a prototype for the technique development and integration that the multiagency collaborative effort would require. The regional study, Phase II, encompassed a 2-degree square centered on Washington, D.C. With more than 7 million people spread across 39 counties, the Baltimore-Washington region is one the Nation's fastest growing metropolitan areas. The two cities are rapidly merging into one.

Maryland

Annualized earthquake loss estimates for California and their sensitivity to site amplification

Input datasets for annualized earthquake loss (AEL) estimation for California were updated recently by the scientific community, and include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), site‐response model, and estimates of shear‐wave velocity. Additionally, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s loss estimation tool, Hazus, was updated to include the most recent census and economic exposure data. These enhancements necessitated a revisit to our previous AEL estimates and a study of the sensitivity of AEL estimates subjected to alternate inputs for site amplification. The NSHM ground motions for a uniform site condition are modified to account for the effect of local near‐surface geology. The site conditions are approximated in three ways: (1) by VS30 (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m) value obtained from a geology‐ and topography‐based map consisting of 15 VS30 groups, (2) by site classes categorized according to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification, and (3) by a uniform NEHRP site class D. In case 1, ground motions are amplified using the Seyhan and Stewart (2014) semiempirical nonlinear amplification model. In cases 2 and 3, ground motions are amplified using the 2014 version of the NEHRP site amplification factors, which are also based on the Seyhan and Stewart model but are approximated to facilitate their use for building code applications. Estimated AELs are presented at multiple resolutions, starting with the state level assessment and followed by detailed assessments for counties, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and cities. AEL estimate at the state level is ∼$3.7 billion, 70% of which is contributed from Los Angeles–Long Beach–Santa Ana, San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, and Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario MSAs. The statewide AEL estimate is insensitive to alternate assumptions of site amplification. However, we note significant differences in AEL estimates among the three sensitivity cases for smaller geographic units.

California

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 14: plants of conservation concern

Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks are located in the California Floristic Province, which has been named one of world‘s hotspots of endemic biodiversity (Myers et al. 2000). The California Floristic Province is the largest and most important geographic floristic unit in California and extends from the Klamath Mountains of southwestern Oregon to the northwestern portion of Baja California (Hickman 1993). The Sierra Nevada, one of six regions that make up the California Floristic Province, covers nearly 20% of the land in California yet contains over 50% of its flora. Within the Sierra Nevada, the southern Sierra supports more Sierran endemic and rare plant taxa than the central and northern portions of the region (Shevock 1996). Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) encompass roughly 20% of the southern Sierra Nevada region. The parks overlap three floristic subregions (central Sierra Nevada High, southern Sierra Nevada High, and southern Sierra Nevada Foothills), and border the Great Basin Floristic Province. The parks support a rich and diverse vascular flora composed of over 1,560 taxa. Of these, 150 taxa are identified as having special status. The term special status is applied here to include taxa that are state or federally listed, rare in California, or at risk because they have a limited distribution. Only one species from these parks is listed under the state or federal Endangered Species Acts ( Carex tompkinsii , Tompkins‘ sedge, is listed as a rare species under the California Endangered Species Act), and one species is under review for federal endangered listing ( Pinus albicaulis , whitebark pine). However, an absence of threatened and endangered species recognized by Endangered Species Acts is not equivalent to an absence of species at risk. There are 83 plant taxa documented as occurring in SEKI that are considered imperiled or vulnerable in the state by the California Department of Fish and Game‘s California Natural Diversity Database (CNDDB 2010a). There are an additional 66 taxa not formally listed by CNDDB that are recognized as having special status because their distribution is restricted to the Sierra Nevada. Special status plants are distributed throughout the two parks and inhabit a wide range of environments along the length of the elevation gradient that characterizes these parks. Ideally, we would assess the condition (status and trends) of each of the taxa on the SEKI special status plant list, documenting current population sizes, demographic rates and demographic trends. We would also hope to quantify the effects of individual stressors on each species based on existing monitoring and research. However, no data are available for most of the species on the special status plant list. For those few species (12 herbaceous species and two tree species) for which we possess some change over time information, the data are not adequate to make a competent assessment. Note that we have not explored the tree demographic information in any detail, as is covered in the NRCA Intact Forest/Five Needle Pines and Sequoia chapters. In general, we are unable to present an ‗integrity‘ metric for special status species in the parks, since the data to quantify the condition of each species in such a manner is not available. In contrast, the park does possess substantial data describing biodiversity in the parks. Therefore, our analysis focuses on describing the distribution and rarity of special status plants within the parks, with a particular focus on assessing the spatial distribution of species richness. We hope that such information will prove useful to park managers in determining which areas in the parks merit the most attention (for example in developing monitoring protocols). We also assess potential vulnerability of special status species to the stressors chosen by the NRCA working group, using both park data and available literature. As a first step, we spent considerable effort updating and refining the criteria for the special status plant list, as this list defines which taxa are considered in our assessment. Observation data of these species was then compiled from all known sources in order to provide a comprehensive view of where special status plants have been documented and, ultimately, to enable the most informed determinations of areas in the parks that potentially support the highest number of rare and endemic taxa. These ‗hot spot‘ analyses are presented by geographic region, vegetation type and elevation. For these and other analyses presented in this report, we place more focus on summarizing findings for the herbaceous and shrub special status taxa than on special status trees. The trees which qualify as special status are the focus of other NRCA chapters, including Giant Sequoia and Intact Forests/Five-needle Pines. We do, however, present their mapped distributions and provide overviews of research related to the special status tree taxa in the Stressors section of this report.

California

Monitoring survival rates of landbirds at varying spatial scales: An application of the MAPS Program

Survivorship is a primary demographic parameter affecting population dynamics, and thus trends in species abundance. The Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program is a cooperative effort designed to monitor landbird demographic parameters. A principle goal of MAPS is to estimate annual survivorship and identify spatial patterns and temporal trends in these rates. We evaluated hypotheses of spatial patterns in survival rates among a collection of neighboring sampling sites, such as within national forests, among biogeographic provinces, and between breeding populations that winter in either Central or South America, and compared these geographic-specific models to a model of a common survival rate among all sampling sites. We used data collected during 1992-1995 from Swainson's Thrush (Cathorus ustulatus) populations in the western region of the United States. We evaluated the ability to detect spatial and temporal patterns of survivorship with simulated data. We found weak evidence of spatial differences in survival rates at the local scale of 'location,' which typically contained 3 mist-netting stations. There was little evidence of differences in survival rates among biogeographic provinces or between populations that winter in either Central or South America. When data were pooled for a regional estimate of survivorship, the percent relative bias due to pooling 'locations' was <1%. With the pooled data, we estimated a 44% annual regional survival rate; this low estimated survival rate was likely due to the presence of transients in the population (Rosenberg and others 1999). Using simulated data, we found that power to detect spatial differences increased considerably with number of years and spatial scale, the latter reflecting larger sample size. Detection of trends at smaller spatial scales required > 12 years of monitoring. Detection of spatial patterns and temporal trends in survival rates from local to regional scales will provide important information for management and future research directed toward conservation of landbirds.

Book chapter

Using smooth sheets to describe groundfish habitat in Alaskan waters, with specific application to two flatfishes

In this analysis we demonstrate how preferred fish habitat can be predicted and mapped for juveniles of two Alaskan groundfish species – Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis ) and flathead sole ( Hippoglossoides elassodon ) – at five sites (Kiliuda Bay, Izhut Bay, Port Dick, Aialik Bay, and the Barren Islands) in the central Gulf of Alaska. The method involves using geographic information system (GIS) software to extract appropriate information from National Ocean Service (NOS) smooth sheets that are available from NGDC (the National Geophysical Data Center). These smooth sheets are highly detailed charts that include more soundings, substrates, shoreline and feature information than the more commonly-known navigational charts. By bringing the information from smooth sheets into a GIS, a variety of surfaces, such as depth, slope, rugosity and mean grain size were interpolated into raster surfaces. Other measurements such as site openness, shoreline length, proportion of bay that is near shore, areas of rocky reefs and kelp beds, water volumes, surface areas and vertical cross-sections were also made in order to quantify differences between the study sites. Proper GIS processing also allows linking the smooth sheets to other data sets, such as orthographic satellite photographs, topographic maps and precipitation estimates from which watersheds and runoff can be derived. This same methodology can be applied to larger areas, taking advantage of these free data sets to describe predicted groundfish essential fish habitat (EFH) in Alaskan waters.

Alaska

Pika ( Ochotona princeps ) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region

Although biotic responses to contemporary climate change are spatially pervasive and often reflect synergies between climate and other ecological disturbances, the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat extent for species persistence remains poorly understood. To address this shortcoming, we performed surveys for American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) at > 910 locations in 3 geographic regions of western North America during 2014 and 2015, complementing earlier modern (1994–2013) and historical (1898–1990) surveys. We sought to compare extirpation rates and the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat area for pikas in a mainland-versus-islands framework. In each region, we found widespread evidence of distributional loss—local extirpations, upslope retractions, and encounter of only old sign. Locally comprehensive surveys suggest extirpation of O. princeps from 5 of 9 new sites from the hydrographic Great Basin and from 11 of 29 sites in northeastern California. Although American pikas were recorded as recently as 2011 in Zion National Park and in 2012 from Cedar Breaks National Monument in Utah, O. princeps now appears extirpated from all reported localities in both park units. Multiple logistic regressions for each region suggested that both temperature-related and water-balance-related variables estimated from DAYMET strongly explained pika persistence at sites in the Great Basin and in Utah but not in the Sierra-Cascade “mainland” portion of northeastern California. Conversely, talus-habitat area did not predict American pika persistence in the Great Basin or Utah but strongly predicted persistence in the Sierra-Cascade mainland. These results not only add new areas to our understanding of long-term trend of the American pika’s distribution, but also can inform decisions regarding allocation of conservation effort and management actions. Burgeoning research on species such as O. princeps has collectively demonstrated the heterogeneity and nuance with which climate can act on the distribution of mountain-dwelling mammals.

Journal of Mammalogy