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Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California

Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques (e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999). In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit wide ranges of distribution parameters to short paleoseismic series. From repeated Monte Carlo draws, it becomes possible to quantitatively estimate most likely recurrence PDF parameters, and a ranked distribution of parameters is returned that can be used to assess uncertainties in hazard calculations. In tests on short synthetic earthquake series, the method gives results that cluster around the mean of the input distribution, whereas maximum likelihood methods return the sample means (e.g., NIST/SEMATECH, 2006). For short series (fewer than 10 intervals), sample means tend to reflect the median of an asymmetric recurrence distribution, possibly leading to an overestimate of the hazard should they be used in probability calculations. Therefore a Monte Carlo approach may be useful for assessing recurrence from limited paleoearthquake records. Further, the degree of functional dependence among parameters like mean recurrence interval and coefficient of variation can be established. The method is described for use with time-independent and time-dependent PDFs, and results from 19 paleoseismic sequences on strike-slip faults throughout the state of California are given.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Finding concealed active faults: Extending the southern Whidbey Island fault across the Puget Lowland, Washington

The southern Whidbey Island fault zone (SWIF), as previously mapped using borehole data, potential field anomalies, and marine seismic reflection surveys, consists of three subparallel, northwest trending strands extending ∼100 km from near Vancouver Island to the northern Puget Lowland. East of Puget Sound, the SWIF makes landfall between the cities of Seattle and Everett but is concealed beneath a thick mantle of young glacial deposits and vegetation. A ∼20‐km‐wide, northwest trending swath of subparallel, low‐amplitude aeromagnetic anomalies crosses this region of the Puget Lowland and is on strike with the SWIF. The most prominent aeromagnetic anomaly, the Cottage Lake lineament, extends at least 18 km and lies approximately on strike with the SWIF on Whidbey Island. Subtle scarps and topographic lineaments on Pleistocene surfaces, visible on high‐resolution lidar topography at a number of locations along the SWIF, lie on or near these magnetic anomalies. In the field, scarps exhibit northeast‐side‐up and vertical relief of 1 to 5 m. Excavations across several lidar scarps lying on or near magnetic anomalies show evidence for multiple folding and faulting events since deglaciation, most likely above buried reverse/oblique faults. Excavations in areas away from magnetic anomalies do not show evidence of tectonic deformation. In total, paleoseismological evidence suggests that the SWIF produced at least four earthquakes since deglaciation about 16,400 years ago, the most recent less than 2700 years ago.

Washington

Variability of passive gas emissions, seismicity, and deformation during crater lake growth at White Island Volcano, New Zealand, 2002-2006

We report on 4 years of airborne measurements of CO2, SO2, and H2S emission rates during a quiescent period at White Island volcano, New Zealand, beginning in 2003. During this time a significant crater lake emerged, allowing scrubbig processes to be investigated. CO2 emissions varied from a baseline of 250 to >2000 t d-1 and demonstrated clear annual cycling that was consistent with numbers of earthquake detections and annual changes in sea level. The annual variability was found to be most likely related to increases in the strain on the volcano during sea level highs, temporarily causing fractures to reduce in size in the upper conduit. SO2 emissions varied from 0 to >400 t d-1 and were clearly affected by scrubbing processes within the first year of take development. Scrubbing caused increases of SO42- and Cl- in lake waters, and the ratio of carbon to total sulphur suggested that elemental sulphur deposition was also significant in the lake during the first year. Careful measurements of the lake level and chemistry allowed estimates of the rate of H2O(g) and HCl(g) input into the lake and suggested that the molar abundances of major gas species (H2O, CO2, SO2, and HCl) during this quiescent phase were similar to fumarolic ratios observed between earlier eruptive periods. The volume of magma estimated from CO2 emissions (0.0 15-0.04 km3) was validated by Cl- increases in the lake, suggesting that the gas and magma are transported from deep to shallow depths as a closed system and likely become open in the upper conduit region. The absence of surface deformation further leads to a necessity of magma convection to supply and remove magma from the degassing depths. Two models of convection configurations are discussed. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Dislocation models of interseismic deformation in the western United States

The GPS-derived crustal velocity field of the western United States is used to construct dislocation models in a viscoelastic medium of interseismic crustal deformation. The interseismic velocity field is constrained by 1052 GPS velocity vectors spanning the ???2500-km-long plate boundary zone adjacent to the San Andreas fault and Cascadia subduction zone and extending ???1000 km into the plate interior. The GPS data set is compiled from U.S. Geological Survey campaign data, Plate Boundary Observatory data, and the Western U.S. Cordillera velocity field of Bennett et al. (1999). In the context of viscoelastic cycle models of postearthquake deformation, the interseismic velocity field is modeled with a combination of earthquake sources on ???100 known faults plus broadly distributed sources. Models that best explain the observed interseismic velocity field include the contributions of viscoelastic relaxation from faulting near the major plate margins, viscoelastic relaxation from distributed faulting in the plate interior, as well as lateral variations in depth-averaged rigidity in the elastic lithosphere. Resulting rigidity variations are consistent with reduced effective elastic plate thickness in a zone a few tens of kilometers wide surrounding the San Andreas fault (SAF) system. Primary deformation characteristics are captured along the entire SAF system, Eastern California Shear Zone, Walker Lane, the Mendocino triple junction, the Cascadia margin, and the plate interior up to ???1000 km from the major plate boundaries.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

In situ Raman spectroscopic investigation of the structure of subduction-zone fluids

In situ Raman spectra of synthetic subduction-zone fluids (KAlSi3O8-H2O system) were measured to 900?? and 2.3 GPa using a hydrothermal diamond-anvil cell. The structures of aqueous fluid and hydrous melt become closer when conditions approach the second critical endpoint. Almost no three-dimensional network was observed in the supercritical fluid above 2 GPa although a large amount of silicate component is dissolved, suggesting that the physical and chemical properties of these phases change drastically at around the second critical endpoint. Our experimental results indicate that the fluids released from a subducting slab change from aqueous fluid to supercritical fluid with increasing depth under the volcanic arcs. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Eruption dynamics at Mount St. Helens imaged from broadband seismic waveforms: Interaction of the shallow magmatic and hydrothermal systems

The current eruption at Mount St. Helens is characterized by dome building and shallow, repetitive, long-period (LP) earthquakes. Waveform cross-correlation reveals remarkable similarity for a majority of the earthquakes over periods of several weeks. Stacked spectra of these events display multiple peaks between 0.5 and 2 Hz that are common to most stations. Lower-amplitude very-long-period (VLP) events commonly accompany the LP events. We model the source mechanisms of LP and VLP events in the 0.5-4 s and 8-40 s bands, respectively, using data recorded in July 2005 with a 19-station temporary broadband network. The source mechanism of the LP events includes: 1) a volumetric component modeled as resonance of a gently NNW-dipping, steam-filled crack located directly beneath the actively extruding part of the new dome and within 100 m of the crater floor and 2) a vertical single force attributed to movement of the overlying dome. The VLP source, which also includes volumetric and single-force components, is 250 m deeper and NNW of the LP source, at the SW edge of the 1980s lava dome. The volumetric component points to the compression and expansion of a shallow, magma-filled sill, which is subparallel to the hydrothermal crack imaged at the LP source, coupled with a smaller component of expansion and compression of a dike. The single-force components are due to mass advection in the magma conduit. The location, geometry and timing of the sources suggest the VLP and LP events are caused by perturbations of a common crack system.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Physical property changes in hydrate-bearing sediment due to depressurization and subsequent repressurization

Physical property measurements of sediment cores containing natural gas hydrate are typically performed on material exposed, at least briefly, to non-in situ conditions during recovery. To examine the effects of a brief excursion from the gas-hydrate stability field, as can occur when pressure cores are transferred to pressurized storage vessels, we measured physical properties on laboratory-formed sand packs containing methane hydrate and methane pore gas. After depressurizing samples to atmospheric pressure, we repressurized them into the methane-hydrate stability field and remeasured their physical properties. Thermal conductivity, shear strength, acoustic compressional and shear wave amplitudes, and speeds of the original and depressurized/repressurized samples are compared. X– ray computed tomography images track how the gas-hydrate distribution changes in the hydrate-cemented sands owing to the depressurizaton/repressurization process. Because depressurization-induced property changes can be substantial and are not easily predicted, particularly in water-saturated, hydrate-bearing sediment, maintaining pressure and temperature conditions throughout the core recovery and measurement process is critical for using laboratory measurements to estimate in situ properties.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Observations and interpretation of fundamental mode Rayleigh wavefields recorded by the Transportable Array (USArray)

Broadband recordings of the dense Transportable Array (TA) in the western United States provide unparalleled detailed images of long-period seismic surface wavefields. With 400 stations spanning most of the western United States, wavefronts of fundamental mode Rayleigh waves may be visualized coherently across the array at periods ???40 s. In order to constrain the Rayleigh wave phase velocity structure in the western United States, I assemble a data set of vertical component seismograms from 53 teleseismic events recorded by the TA from April 2006 to October 2007. Complex amplitude spectra from these recordings at peni ods 27-100 s are interpreted using the multiplane wave tomographic method of Friederich and Wielandt (1995) and Pollitz (1999). This analysis yields detailed surface wave phase velocity and three-dimensional shear wave velocity patterns across the North American plate boundary zone, elucidating the active processes in the highly heterogeneous western U.S. upper mantle.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Premonitory acoustic emissions and stick-slip in natural and smooth-faulted Westerly granite

A stick-slip event was induced in a cylindrical sample of Westerly granite containing a preexisting natural fault by loading at constant confining pressure of 150 MPa. Continuously recorded acoustic emission (AE) data and computer tomography (CT)-generated images of the fault plane were combined to provide a detailed examination of microscale processes operating on the fault. The dynamic stick-slip event, considered to be a laboratory analog of an earthquake, generated an ultrasonic signal that was recorded as a large-amplitude AE event. First arrivals of this event were inverted to determine the nucleation site of slip, which is associated with a geometric asperity on the fault surface. CT images and AE locations suggest that a variety of asperities existed in the sample because of the intersection of branch or splay faults with the main fault. This experiment is compared with a stick-slip experiment on a sample prepared with a smooth, artificial saw-cut fault surface. Nearly a thousand times more AE were observed for the natural fault, which has a higher friction coefficient (0.78 compared to 0.53) and larger shear stress drop (140 compared to 68 MPa). However at the measured resolution, the ultrasonic signal emitted during slip initiation does not vary significantly between the two experiments, suggesting a similar dynamic rupture process. We propose that the natural faulted sample under triaxial compression provides a good laboratory analogue for a field-scale fault system in terms of the presence of asperities, fault surface heterogeneity, and interaction of branching faults. ?? 2009.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Inducing in situ, nonlinear soil response applying an active source

[1] It is well known that soil sites have a profound effect on ground motion during large earthquakes. The complex structure of soil deposits and the highly nonlinear constitutive behavior of soils largely control nonlinear site response at soil sites. Measurements of nonlinear soil response under natural conditions are critical to advancing our understanding of soil behavior during earthquakes. Many factors limit the use of earthquake observations to estimate nonlinear site response such that quantitative characterization of nonlinear behavior relies almost exclusively on laboratory experiments and modeling of wave propagation. Here we introduce a new method for in situ characterization of the nonlinear behavior of a natural soil formation using measurements obtained immediately adjacent to a large vibrator source. To our knowledge, we are the first group to propose and test such an approach. Employing a large, surface vibrator as a source, we measure the nonlinear behavior of the soil by incrementally increasing the source amplitude over a range of frequencies and monitoring changes in the output spectra. We apply a homodyne algorithm for measuring spectral amplitudes, which provides robust signal-to-noise ratios at the frequencies of interest. Spectral ratios are computed between the receivers and the source as well as receiver pairs located in an array adjacent to the source, providing the means to separate source and near-source nonlinearity from pervasive nonlinearity in the soil column. We find clear evidence of nonlinearity in significant decreases in the frequency of peak spectral ratios, corresponding to material softening with amplitude, observed across the array as the source amplitude is increased. The observed peak shifts are consistent with laboratory measurements of soil nonlinearity. Our results provide constraints for future numerical modeling studies of strong ground motion during earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Tracking magma volume recovery at Okmok Volcano using GPS and an unscented kalman filter

Changes beneath a volcano can be observed through position changes in a GPS network, but distinguishing the source of site motion is not always straightforward. The records of continuous GPS sites provide a favorable data set for tracking magma migration. Dense campaign observations usually provide a better spatial picture of the overall deformation field, at the expense of an episodic temporal record. Combining these observations provides the best of both worlds. A Kalman filter provides a means for integrating discrete and continuous measurements and for interpreting subtle signals. The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is a nonlinear method for time‐dependent observations. We demonstrate the application of this technique to deformation data by applying it to GPS data collected at Okmok volcano. Seven years of GPS observations at Okmok are analyzed using a Mogi source model and the UKF. The deformation source at Okmok is relatively stable at 2.5 km depth below sea level, located beneath the center of the caldera, which means the surface deformation is caused by changes in the strength of the source. During the 7 years of GPS observations more than 0.5 m of uplift has occurred, a majority of that during the time period January 2003 to July 2004. The total volume recovery at Okmok since the last eruption in 1997 is ∼60–80%. The UKF allows us to solve simultaneously for the time‐dependence of the source strength and for the location without a priori information about the source. 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Alaska

Seismic wave triggering of nonvolcanic tremor, episodic tremor and slip, and earthquakes on Vancouver Island

[1] We explore the physical conditions that enable triggering of nonvolcanic tremor and earthquakes by considering local seismic activity on Vancouver Island, British Columbia during and immediately after the arrival of large-amplitude seismic waves from 30 teleseismic and 17 regional or local earthquakes. We identify tremor triggered by four of the teleseismic earthquakes. The close temporal and spatial proximity of triggered tremor to ambient tremor and aseismic slip indicates that when a fault is close to or undergoing failure, it is particularly susceptible to triggering of further events. The amplitude of the triggering waves also influences the likelihood of triggering both tremor and earthquakes such that large amplitude waves triggered tremor in the absence of detectable aseismic slip or ambient tremor. Tremor and energy radiated from regional/local earthquakes share the same frequency passband so that tremor cannot be identified during these smaller, more frequent events. We confidently identify triggered local earthquakes following only one teleseism, that with the largest amplitude, and four regional or local events that generated vigorous aftershock sequences in their immediate vicinity. Earthquakes tend to be triggered in regions different from tremor and with high ambient seismicity rates. We also note an interesting possible correlation between large teleseismic events and episodic tremor and slip (ETS) episodes, whereby ETS events that are “late” and have built up more stress than normal are susceptible to triggering by the slight nudge of the shaking from a large, distant event, while ETS events that are “early” or “on time” are not.

Vancouver Island

Volcano-tectonic implications of 3-D velocity structures derived from joint active and passive source tomography of the island of Hawaii

We present a velocity model of the onshore and offshore regions around the southern part of the island of Hawaii, including southern Mauna Kea, southeastern Hualalai, and the active volcanoes of Mauna Loa, and Kilauea, and Loihi seamount. The velocity model was inverted from about 200,000 first-arrival traveltime picks of earthquakes and air gun shots recorded at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). Reconstructed volcanic structures of the island provide us with an improved understanding of the volcano-tectonic evolution of Hawaiian volcanoes and their interactions. The summits and upper rift zones of the active volcanoes are characterized by high-velocity materials, correlated with intrusive magma cumulates. These high-velocity materials often do not extend the full lengths of the rift zones, suggesting that rift zone intrusions may be spatially limited. Seismicity tends to be localized seaward of the most active intrusive bodies. Low-velocity materials beneath parts of the active rift zones of Kilauea and Mauna Loa suggest discontinuous rift zone intrusives, possibly due to the presence of a preexisting volcanic edifice, e.g., along Mauna Loa beneath Kilauea's southwest rift zone, or alternatively, removal of high-velocity materials by large-scale landsliding, e.g., along Mauna Loa's western flank. Both locations also show increased seismicity that may result from edifice interactions or reactivation of buried faults. New high-velocity regions are recognized and suggest the presence of buried, and in some cases, previously unknown rift zones, within the northwest flank of Mauna Loa, and the south flanks of Mauna Loa, Hualalai, and Mauna Kea. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Hawaii

Seismicity and deformation induced by magma accumulation at three basaltic volcanoes

We analyzed the evolution of volcano‐tectonic (VT) seismicity and deformation at three basaltic volcanoes (Kilauea, Mauna Loa, Piton de la Fournaise) during phases of magma accumulation. We observed that the VT earthquake activity displays an accelerating evolution at the three studied volcanoes during the time of magma accumulation. At the same times, deformation rates recorded at the summit of Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes were not accelerating but rather tend to decay. To interpret these observations, we propose a physical model describing the evolution of pressure produced by the accumulation of magma into a reservoir. This variation of pressure is then used to force a simple model of damage, where damage episodes are equivalent to earthquakes. This model leads to an exponential increase of the VT activity and to an exponential decay of the deformation rate during accumulation phases. Seismicity and deformation data are well fitted by such an exponential model. The time constant, deduced from the exponential increase of the seismicity, is in agreement with the time constant predicted by the model of magma accumulation. This VT activity can thus be a direct indication of the accumulation of magma at depth, and therefore can be seen as a long‐term precursory phenomenon, at least for the three studied basaltic volcanoes. Unfortunately, it does not allow the prediction of the onset of future eruptions, as no diverging point (i.e., critical time) is present in the model.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

A search in strainmeter data for slow slip associated with triggered and ambient tremor near Parkfield, California

We test the hypothesis that, as in subduction zones, slow slip facilitates triggered and ambient tremor in the transform boundary setting of California. Our study builds on the study of Peng et al. (2009) of triggered and ambient tremor near Parkfield, California during time intervals surrounding 31, potentially triggering, M ≥ 7.5 teleseismic earthquakes; waves from 10 of these triggered tremor and 29 occurred in periods of ambient tremor activity. We look for transient slow slip during 3-month windows that include 11 of these triggering and nontriggering teleseisms, using continuous strain data recorded on two borehole Gladwin tensor strainmeters (GTSM) located within the distribution of tremor epicenters. We model the GTSM data assuming only tidal and “drift” signals are present and find no detectable slow slip, either ongoing when the teleseismic waves passed or triggered by them. We infer a conservative detection threshold of about 5 nanostrain for abrupt changes and about twice this for slowly evolving signals. This could be lowered slightly by adding analyses of other data types, modeled slow slip signals, and GTSM data calibration. Detection of slow slip also depends on the slipping fault's location and size, which we describe in terms of equivalent earthquake moment magnitude, M. In the best case of the GTSM above a very shallow slipping fault, detectable slip events must exceed M~2, and if the slow slip is beneath the seismogenic zone (below ~15 km depth), even M~5 events are likely to remain hidden.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Kilauea slow slip events: Identification, source inversions, and relation to seismicity

Several slow slip events beneath the south flank of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, have been inferred from transient displacements in daily GPS positions. To search for smaller events that may be close to the noise level in the GPS time series, we compare displacement fields on Kilauea's south flank with displacement patterns in previously identified slow slip events. Matching displacement patterns are found for several new candidate events, although displacements are much smaller than previously identified events. One of the candidates, 29 May 2000, is coincident with a microearthquake swarm, as are all of the previously identified slow slip events. The microearthquakes follow the onset of slow slip, implying that they are triggered by stress changes during slip. The new slow slip event brings the total number of events on Kilauea, between 1997 and 2007, to eight, the smallest having M W = 5.3, and the largest having M W = 6.0. While the recurrence time between the four largest events is 2.11 ± 0.01 years, the repeat time for all eight events is 0.9 ± 0.6 years. We invert for the fault geometry and distribution of slip during the slow slip events. The optimal source depths of 5 km, assuming uniform slip dislocations in an elastic half‐space, are considerably shallower than the accompanying swarm earthquakes (6.5–8.5 km), which would place the earthquakes in a zone of decreased Coulomb stress. Inversions including the effects of topography and layered elastic structure in the forward models favor depths comparable to microearthquake depths, such that the earthquakes are located in a region of increased Coulomb stress. We also invert for time‐dependent fault slip directly from the 30 s GPS phase observations, constraining the source to the optimal uniform slip geometry. On the basis of these inversions, the larger events last between 1.5–2.2 days. The data are unable to resolve migration of slip along the fault. The temporal pattern of accompanying microearthquakes is consistent with the fault slip history assuming a seismicity rate theory based on rate and state‐friction, making the swarm earthquakes coshocks and aftershocks of the slow slip events.

Hawaii

The source of infrasound associated with long-period events at mount St. Helens

During the early stages of the 2004-2008 Mount St. Helens eruption, the source process that produced a sustained sequence of repetitive long-period (LP) seismic events also produced impulsive broadband infrasonic signals in the atmosphere. To assess whether the signals could be generated simply by seismic-acoustic coupling from the shallow LP events, we perform finite difference simulation of the seismo-acoustic wavefield using a single numerical scheme for the elastic ground and atmosphere. The effects of topography, velocity structure, wind, and source configuration are considered. The simulations show that a shallow source buried in a homogeneous elastic solid produces a complex wave train in the atmosphere consisting of P/SV and Rayleigh wave energy converted locally along the propagation path, and acoustic energy originating from , the source epicenter. Although the horizontal acoustic velocity of the latter is consistent with our data, the modeled amplitude ratios of pressure to vertical seismic velocity are too low in comparison with observations, and the characteristic differences in seismic and acoustic waveforms and spectra cannot be reproduced from a common point source. The observations therefore require a more complex source process in which the infrasonic signals are a record of only the broadband pressure excitation mechanism of the seismic LP events. The observations and numerical results can be explained by a model involving the repeated rapid pressure loss from a hydrothermal crack by venting into a shallow layer of loosely consolidated, highly permeable material. Heating by magmatic activity causes pressure to rise, periodically reaching the pressure threshold for rupture of the "valve" sealing the crack. Sudden opening of the valve generates the broadband infrasonic signal and simultaneously triggers the collapse of the crack, initiating resonance of the remaining fluid. Subtle waveform and amplitude variability of the infrasonic signals as recorded at an array 13.4 km to the NW of the volcano are attributed primarily to atmospheric boundary layer propagation effects, superimposed upon amplitude changes at the source.

Washington