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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources
USGS2000

Managers' summary - Ecological studies of the Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range, 1992-1997

Ecological Studies of the Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range, 1992-1997 provides a synthesis of key findings of landscape-scale, interdisciplinary studies of the effects of wild horses and native ungulates on a rugged, mountain ecosystem. This is perhaps the most comprehensive study of a wild horse herd conducted. This was a complex study and one involving a truly interagency approach. Six agencies either provided input to research priority setting, funding, or both. The agencies included the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, U.S. Geological Survey, Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Wyoming Game and Fish Department, and U.S. Forest Service. The major research direction and effort came from the U.S. Geological Survey and Natural Resources Ecology Lab, Colorado State University with Montana State University and the University of Kentucky also participating. Ungulate monitoring was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division, Bureau of Land Management, Billings Field Office and the Montana Fish and Wildlife Parks, with funding by Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area. Many other individuals and groups were involved and deserve credit. The report printing was made possible with funds from the Bureau of Land Management, Wild Horse and Burro Program, Washington Office. This report was prepared by the Information Management Project, Midcontinent Ecological Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2022

Riparian buffers provide refugia during secondary forest succession

Aim Secondary forests regenerating from human disturbance are increasingly becoming a predominant forest type in many regions, and they play a significant role in forest community dynamics. Understanding the factors that underlie the variation in species responses during secondary succession is important for understanding community assembly and biodiversity monitoring and management. Because species vary in ecology and behaviour, responses to ecosystem change should vary among species. Here, we show that habitat type (riparian, upland), phylogeny, and species traits mediate anuran and lizard probability of occurrence and species richness in pasture and secondary forest. Location Sarapiquí and Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. Methods We used phylogenetic occupancy models to estimate assemblage-level and species-specific responses to forest succession in 30 chronosequence sites that include pasture, secondary forest regenerating from pasture, and mature forest sites. Results For the majority of species, we found increasing probability of occurrence in upland habitats as forest regenerated from pasture to secondary forest and similar probability of occurrence in riparian habitats across pasture, secondary forest, and mature forest sites. Species' responses to forest stage were phylogenetically correlated, and the trend was especially strong for anuran response to pasture sites. Anurans with lentic larval habitat had a positive occupancy response to pasture upland habitat, and anurans with lotic larval habitat had a variable response to different forest stages compared to mature forest. Main Conclusions Our study, which focuses on sites that are minimally isolated from mature forest reference sites, indicated that anuran and lizard occupancy rapidly recovered to a level similar to mature forest in a relatively short time span (approximately 20 years). Riparian habitats are key ecosystem features in our system and provide refugia for organisms in early successional stages. Maintenance of vegetation along streams shows that we can mitigate forest conversion by maintaining riparian buffers.

Osa Peninsula, Sarapiquí↗
USGS2002

Narrowing historical uncertainty: probabilistic classification of ambiguously identified tree species in historical forest survey data

Historical data have increasingly become appreciated for insight into the past conditions of ecosystems. Uses of such data include assessing the extent of ecosystem change; deriving ecological baselines for management, restoration, and modeling; and assessing the importance of past conditions on the composition and function of current systems. One historical data set of this type is the Public Land Survey (PLS) of the United States General Land Office, which contains data on multiple tree species, sizes, and distances recorded at each survey point, located at half-mile (0.8 km) intervals on a 1-mi (1.6 km) grid. This survey method was begun in the 1790s on US federal lands extending westward from Ohio. Thus, the data have the potential of providing a view of much of the US landscape from the mid-1800s, and they have been used extensively for this purpose. However, historical data sources, such as those describing the species composition of forests, can often be limited in the detail recorded and the reliability of the data, since the information was often not originally recorded for ecological purposes. Forest trees are sometimes recorded ambiguously, using generic or obscure common names. For the PLS data of northern Wisconsin, USA, we developed a method to classify ambiguously identified tree species using logistic regression analysis, using data on trees that were clearly identified to species and a set of independent predictor variables to build the models. The models were first created on partial data sets for each species and then tested for fit against the remaining data. Validations were conducted using repeated, random subsets of the data. Model prediction accuracy ranged from 81% to 96% in differentiating congeneric species among oak, pine, ash, maple, birch, and elm. Major predictor variables were tree size, associated species, landscape classes indicative of soil type, and spatial location within the study region. Results help to clarify ambiguities formerly present in maps of historic ecosystems for the region and can be applied to PLS datasets elsewhere, as well as other sources of ambiguous historical data. Mapping the newly classified data with ecological land units provides additional information on the distribution, abundance, and associations of tree species, as well as their relationships to environmental gradients before the industrial period, and clarifies the identities of species formerly mapped only to genus. We offer some caveats on the appropriate use of data derived in this way, as well as describing their potential.

Ecosystems↗
USGS1995

Pinyon-juniper woodlands

Pinyon-juniper woodlands are one of the largest ecosystems in the Southwest and in the Middle Rio Grande Basin (Fig. 1). The woodlands have been important to the region's inhabitants since prehistoric times for a variety of natural resources and amenities. The ecosystems have not been static; their distributions, stand characteristics, and site conditions have been altered by changes in climatic patterns and human use and, often, abuse. Management of these lands since European settlement has varied from light exploitation and benign neglect, to attempts to remove the trees in favor of forage for livestock, and then to a realization that these lands contain useful resources and should be managed accordingly. Land management agencies are committed to ecosystem management. While there are several definitions of ecosystem management, the goal is to use ecological approaches to create and maintain diverse, productive, and healthy ecosystems (Kaufmann et al. 1994). Ecosystem management recognizes that people are an integral part of the system and that their needs must be considered. Ecological approaches are central to the concept, but our understanding of basic woodland ecology is incomplete, and there are different opinions and interpretations of existing information (Gottfried and Severson 1993). There are many questions concerning proper ecosystem management of the pinyon-juniper woodlands and how managers can achieve these goals (Gottfried and Severson 1993). While the broad concept of ecosystem management generally is accepted, the USDA Forest Service, other public land management agencies, American Indian tribes, and private landowners may have differing definitions of what constitutes desired conditions. Key questions about the pinyon-juniper ecosystems remain unanswered. Some concern the basic dynamics of biological and physical components of the pinyon-juniper ecosystems. Others concern the distribution of woodlands prior to European settlement and changes since the introduction of livestock and fire control. This relates to whether tree densities have been increasing or whether trees are invading grasslands and, to a lesser extent, drier ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. In areas where woodlands were heavily used by American Indians for fuelwood prior to European contact, the advance of pinyon and juniper could represent the slow recovery from intensive use (Samuels and Betancourt 1982). There are numerous questions regarding declines in watershed condition related to changes in pinyon-juniper tree stand densities and to the density and composition of understory vegetation. There are different opinions about proper management of woodland ecosystems. Should these lands be managed for a single resource, such as forage for livestock production, or managed for sustained production of multiple resource products and amenities? Depending on site and stand conditions, the woodlands can produce variable quantities of fuelwood, pinyon nuts, wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, and cover for watershed protection. Management must also consider increasing recreational demands, threatened and endangered species, and protection of archeological sites. Many pinyon-juniper woodland watersheds in New Mexico have unsatisfactory soil and watershed conditions (USDA Forest Service 1993); managers must develop restoration procedures that recognize the value of woodland ecosystems. The concerns, questions, and conflicts surrounding management of pinyon-juniper lands, as well as the ecological foundations of ecosystem management, require that all interested parties reevaluate attitudes toward the woodlands. Ecosystem management goals and concepts recognize diversity. Pinyonjuniper woodlands are diverse, and stand characteristics and site productivities vary. Management objectives and prescriptions must evaluate the potential of each site, and decisions must be based on sound scientific information. This information is often unavailable. Therefore, this paper describes what we do know about the characteristics, distribution, and ecology of pinyon-juniper woodlands, including the effects of natural and human factors, within the southwestern United States and particularly the Middle Rio Grande Basin. It also reviews some past and present management options in this widespread and important vegetation type. The review draws on research and management information from the Rio Grande Basin and from similar areas in the Southwest and adjacent regions. It does not attempt to review all of the relevant literature; additional sources can be found within the articles cited in the References.

General Technical Report↗
USGS2011

Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park

Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, processes, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to counteract the negative effects of climate change. We began a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest (ONF) in partnership with Olympic National Park (ONP) to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to climate change. The case study began in the summer of 2008 and continued for 1½ years. The case study process involved science-based sensitivity assessments, review of management activities and constraints, and adaptation workshops in each of four focus areas (hydrology and roads, fish, vegetation, and wildlife). The process produced adaptation options for ONF and ONP, and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessment and science-management workshops in adapting to climate change. The case study process provides an example for other national forests, national parks, and natural resource agencies of how federal land management units can collaborate in the initial stages of climate change adaptation. Many of the ideas generated through this process can potentially be applied in other locations and in other agencies

Washington↗
USGS2026

New methods provide a 300–year perspective on modern area burned in two wilderness areas of the southwest United States

Climate change, expanding human ignitions, and increased fuels from fire exclusion are driving increases in area burned and fire severity in dry conifer forests of the western United States. Increasing area burned is occurring against the backdrop of a large fire deficit caused by over a century of fire exclusion. A key land management question is whether historically frequent fire regimes can be restored. Accurate estimates of historical annual area burned (prior to circa 1900) are necessary to evaluate modern area burned (after circa 1900), but are difficult to derive, and have rarely been calibrated or validated against modern fires, leaving their accuracy uncertain. We developed new methods to use tree-ring fire scars to reconstruct historical annual area burned and compare it to modern annual area burned. We focused on two southwestern US wilderness areas—Saguaro National Park (SAGU) and the Gila Wilderness (GILA)—that have a long history of using prescribed and managed fires. The abundant modern low- and moderate-severity fires allowed us to (1) calibrate and validate the fire-scar models against mapped fires to derive the first uncertainty estimates of reconstructed annual area burned and (2) test whether active fire management can help restore annual area burned to historical levels. A multi-model ensemble consisting of 10 individual member models accurately estimated area burned of mapped modern fires with no consistent biases. Each member model had distinct strengths and assumptions that made them suitable for specific applications (e.g., the synchrony model is easily applied, and Thiessen polygons provide spatially explicit area burned estimates). The accurate reconstruction of modern area burned from relatively sparse fire-scar data at GILA suggests that dense grids may not be necessary for accurate reconstructions. Our findings reveal that despite the near absence of fire in the early 20th century, both annual and 20-year sums of area burned in recent decades are back within historical levels at GILA, and trending toward historical levels at SAGU. These results demonstrate that fire management can help restore the historically prevalent, ecologically important process of widespread, frequent, low-to-moderate-severity fire in dry conifer forests.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2007

Design and implementation of estimation-based monitoring programs for flora and fauna: A case study on the Cherokee National Forest

Science-based monitoring of biological resources is important for a greater understanding of ecological systems and for assessment of the target population using theoretic-based management approaches. When selecting variables to monitor, managers first need to carefully consider their objectives, the geographic and temporal scale at which they will operate, and the effort needed to implement the program. Generally, monitoring can be divided into two categories: index and inferential. Although index monitoring is usually easier to implement, analysis of index data requires strong assumptions about consistency in detection rates over time and space, and parameters are often biasednot accounting for detectability and spatial variation. In most cases, individuals are not always available for detection during sampling periods, and the entire area of interest cannot be sampled. Conversely, inferential monitoring is more rigorous because it is based on nearly unbiased estimators of spatial distribution. Thus, we recommend that detectability and spatial variation be considered for all monitoring programs that intend to make inferences about the target population or the area of interest. Application of these techniques is especially important for the monitoring of Threatened and Endangered (T&E) species because it is critical to determine if population size is increasing or decreasing with some level of certainty. Use of estimation-based methods and probability sampling will reduce many of the biases inherently associated with index data and provide meaningful information with respect to changes that occur in target populations. We incorporated inferential monitoring into protocols for T&E species spanning a wide range of taxa on the Cherokee National Forest in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. We review the various approaches employed for different taxa and discuss design issues, sampling strategies, data analysis, and the details of estimating detectability using site occupancy. These techniques provide a science-based approach for monitoring and can be of value to all resource managers responsible for management of T&E species.

Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Southe↗
USGS2002

Evaluation of spatial models to predict vulnerability of forest birds to brood parasitism by cowbirds

We constructed alternative spatial models at two scales to predict Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ) parasitism rates from land cover maps. The local-scale models tested competing hypotheses about the relationship between cowbird parasitism and distance of host nests from a forest edge (forest-nonforest boundary). The landscape models tested competing hypotheses about how landscape features (e.g., forests, agricultural fields) interact to determine rates of cowbird parasitism. The models incorporate spatial neighborhoods with a radius of 2.5 km in their formulation, reflecting the scale of the majority of cowbird commuting activity. Field data on parasitism by cowbirds (parasitism rate and number of cowbird eggs per nest) were collected at 28 sites in the Driftless Area Ecoregion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa and were compared to the predictions of the alternative models. At the local scale, there was a significant positive relationship between cowbird parasitism and mean distance of nest sites from the forest edge. At the landscape scale, the best fitting models were the forest-dependent and forest-fragmentation-dependent models, in which more heavily forested and less fragmented landscapes had higher parasitism rates. However, much of the explanatory power of these models results from the inclusion of the local-scale relationship in these models. We found lower rates of cowbird parasitism than did most Midwestern studies, and we identified landscape patterns of cowbird parasitism that are opposite to those reported in several other studies of Midwestern songbirds. We caution that cowbird parasitism patterns can be unpredictable, depending upon ecoregional location and the spatial extent, and that our models should be tested in other ecoregions before they are applied there. Our study confirms that cowbird biology has a strong spatial component, and that improved spatial models applied at multiple spatial scales will be required to predict the effects of landscape and forest management on cowbird parasitism of forest birds.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

The potential of remote sensing for improved infectious disease ecology research and practice

Outbreaks of Covid-19 in humans, Dutch elm disease in forests, and highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds and poultry highlight the disruptive impacts of emerging infectious diseases on public health, ecosystems, and economies. Infectious disease dynamics often depend on environmental conditions that drive occurrence, transmission, and outbreaks. Remote sensing can contribute to infectious disease research and management by providing standardized environmental data across broad spatial and temporal extents, often at no cost to the user. Here, we 1) conduct a systematic review of primary literature to quantify current uses of remote sensing in disease ecology and 2) synthesize qualitative information to identify opportunities for further integration of remote sensing into disease ecology. We identify that modern advances in airborne remote sensing are promoting early detection of forest pathogens and that satellite data is contributing to the study of geographically widespread human diseases. We discuss opportunities for increased use of data products that characterize vegetation, surface water, and soil; provide data at high spatio-temporal and spectral resolutions; and quantify uncertainty in measurements. Additionally, combining remote sensing with animal movement telemetry can provide novel insights into wildlife disease. Integrating these opportunities will advance research and management of infectious diseases.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗
USGS2009

LANDFIRE: A nationally consistent vegetation, wildland fire, and fuel assessment

LANDFIRE is a 5-year, multipartner project producing consistent and comprehensive maps and data describing vegetation, wildland fuel, fire regimes and ecological departure from historical conditions across the United States. It is a shared project between the wildland fire management and research and development programs of the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service and US Department of the Interior. LANDFIRE meets agency and partner needs for comprehensive, integrated data to support landscape-level fire management planning and prioritization, community and firefighter protection, effective resource allocation, and collaboration between agencies and the public. The LANDFIRE data production framework is interdisciplinary, science-based and fully repeatable, and integrates many geospatial technologies including biophysical gradient analyses, remote sensing, vegetation modelling, ecological simulation, and landscape disturbance and successional modelling. LANDFIRE data products are created as 30-m raster grids and are available over the internet at www.landfire.gov , accessed 22 April 2009. The data products are produced at scales that may be useful for prioritizing and planning individual hazardous fuel reduction and ecosystem restoration projects; however, the applicability of data products varies by location and specific use, and products may need to be adjusted by local users.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗
USGS2001

Location and description of transects for ecological studies in floodplain forests of the lower Suwannee River, Florida

Twelve transects were established in floodplain forests along the lower Suwannee River, Florida, as the principal data collection sites for a comprehensive study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Suwannee River Water Management District from 1996 to 2001. Data collected along the 12 transects included hydrologic conditions, land-surface elevations, soils, and vegetation of floodplain forests in relation to river flow. Transect locations are marked in the field with permanent markers at approximately 30 meter intervals. Detailed descriptions of the 12 transects and their locations are provided so that they can be used for future ecological studies. Descriptions of the transects include contact information necessary for access to the property on which the transects are located, maps showing transect locations and routes from the nearest city or major road, small scale maps of each transect showing marker locations, latitude and longitude of each marker, compass bearings of each transect line and graphs showing land-surface elevations of the transect with marker locations.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Palila Restoration Research, 1996−2012. Summary and management implications

The Palila Restoration Project was initiated in 1996 by the U.S. Geological Survey to assist government agencies mitigate the effects of realigning Saddle Road (Highway 200) through Palila Critical Habitat (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1998, Federal Highway Administration 1999). Ecological research on the palila (Loxioides bailleui), an endangered Hawaiian forest bird, carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (formerly organized as the Research Division of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) since 1987 and research conducted by the Palila Restoration Project provided the scientific bases for developing a recovery strategy (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2006) and its adaptive implementation. The main objectives of the Palila Restoration Project were to develop techniques for reintroducing the palila to a portion of its former range, investigate the biological threats to the palila and its habitat, and synthesize the existing body of ecological knowledge concerning the palila. Five broad study themes formed the research framework: 1. Population reintroduction and restoration 2. Demography and breeding ecology 3. Habitat use and food ecology 4. Vegetation ecology 5. Predator ecology and management An element that was not included in the research program of the project was the ecology and management of introduced ungulates, which has historically constituted the single greatest threat to Palila Critical Habitat (Banko et al. 2009). The absence of ungulate studies should not be interpreted to mean that we believe ungulates no longer damage palila habitat. Other research has already established that removing alien browsers and grazers from Mauna Kea is essential for the recovery of the subalpine forest on which palila now depend (Scowcroft and Giffin 1983; Scowcroft and Sakai 1983; Scowcroft and Conrad 1988, 1992; Hess et al. 1999). Moreover, the Federal District Court of Hawai‘i has ordered the State of Hawai‘i to remove browsing ungulates from Palila Critical Habitat (Banko et al. 2009, Hess and Banko 2011). This final report summarizes results of Palila Restoration Project research from December 1996 to December 2012. Even though some results contained in this report have been published in scientific journals and other technical reports (Appendix I), they are included here to provide a comprehensive chronicle of all project activities.

Hawaii↗
USGS2015

LANDFIRE

LANDFIRE, also known as the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Program, is a vegetation, fire, and fuel characteristic mapping program managed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and the U.S. Department of the Interior. LANDFIRE represents the first, and only, complete, nationally consistent collection of spatial resource datasets with an ecological foundation that can be used across multiple disciplines. LANDFIRE data products are primarily designed and developed to be used at the landscape level to facilitate national and regional strategic planning and reporting of wild land fire and other natural resource management activities. However, LANDFIRE’s spatially comprehensive dataset can also be adapted to support a variety of local management applications that need current and comprehensive geospatial data.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2025

Invasive wild pig movement and space use in a mixed-use forest landscape, South Carolina

Invasive wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) pose considerable ecological and economic challenges across their introduced range, and understanding their spatial ecology is critical for management. This research and accompanying dataset represents adult wild pig movement in South Carolina, United States based on 16 individuals collared in 2023-2024. Using hourly GPS collar data for 6 males and 5 females, we calculated autocorrelated kernel density estimates (AKDEs) and monthly kernel density estimates (KDEs) to characterize space use. Individual pigs had an average hourly step length of 83 m and average net displacement of 930 m. On average, pigs used 2.32 km 2 monthly, while they used 2.95 km 2 over their entire tracked period (mean = 111 days). This work aims to support management actions and future research on invasive wild pigs.

South Carolina↗
USGS2016

Montane Forests

This long-anticipated reference and sourcebook for California’s remarkable ecological abundance provides an integrated assessment of each major ecosystem type—its distribution, structure, function, and management. A comprehensive synthesis of our knowledge about this biologically diverse state, Ecosystems of California covers the state from oceans to mountaintops using multiple lenses: past and present, flora and fauna, aquatic and terrestrial, natural and managed. Each chapter evaluates natural processes for a specific ecosystem, describes drivers of change, and discusses how that ecosystem may be altered in the future. This book also explores the drivers of California’s ecological patterns and the history of the state’s various ecosystems, outlining how the challenges of climate change and invasive species and opportunities for regulation and stewardship could potentially affect the state’s ecosystems. The text explicitly incorporates both human impacts and conservation and restoration efforts and shows how ecosystems support human well-being. Edited by two esteemed ecosystem ecologists and with overviews by leading experts on each ecosystem, this definitive work will be indispensable for natural resource management and conservation professionals as well as for undergraduate or graduate students of California’s environment and curious naturalists.

Book chapter↗
USGS2008

Dispersal of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) in a Hawaiian rain forest

Introduced mosquito-borne pathogens avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum Grassi and Feletti) and avian pox virus (Avipoxvirus) have been implicated in the past extinctions and declines of Hawaiian avifauna and remain significant obstacles to the recovery and restoration of endemic Hawaiian birds. Effective management of avian disease will require extensive mosquito control efforts that are guided by the local ecology of the vector Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae). During October and November 1997 and September through November 1998 five mark-release-recapture experiments with laboratory-reared Cx. quinquefasciatus were conducted in a native rain forest on Hawaii Island. Of the overall 66,047 fluorescent dye-marked and released females, 1,192 (1.8%) were recaptured in 43-52 CO2-baited traps operated for 10-12-d trapping periods. Recaptured mosquitoes were trapped in all directions and at distances up to 3 km from the release site. The cumulative mean distance traveled (MDTs) over the trapping period ranged from a high of 1.89 km after 11 d (September 1998) to a low of 0.81 km after 11 d (November 1998). Released mosquitoes moved predominately in a downwind direction and they seemed to use forestry roads as dispersal corridors. Applying an estimated MDT of 1.6 km to a geographical information system-generated map of the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge clearly demonstrated that the effective refuge area could be reduced 60% by mosquitoes infiltrating into managed refuge lands. These findings should have significant implications for the design of future refuges and development of effective mosquito-borne avian disease control strategies.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗
USGS2014

An ecological response model for the Cache la Poudre River through Fort Collins

The Poudre River Ecological Response Model (ERM) is a collaborative effort initiated by the City of Fort Collins and a team of nine river scientists to provide the City with a tool to improve its understanding of the past, present, and likely future conditions of the Cache la Poudre River ecosystem. The overall ecosystem condition is described through the measurement of key ecological indicators such as shape and character of the stream channel and banks, streamside plant communities and floodplain wetlands, aquatic vegetation and insects, and fishes, both coolwater trout and warmwater native species. The 13- mile-long study area of the Poudre River flows through Fort Collins, Colorado, and is located in an ecological transition zone between the upstream, cold-water, steep-gradient system in the Front Range of the Southern Rocky Mountains and the downstream, warm-water, low-gradient reach in the Colorado high plains. The City wanted to better understand the ecological response of the Poudre River ecosystem to potential changes in stream flow and other physical parameters through the conceptual framework of a multivariable integrated model. This goal was met through the use of a probabilistic model based on Bayesian concepts. This construct allowed the integration of a wide range of data and expert opinion (as informed by local data) to predict potential changes to ecosystem conditions under various flow scenarios. Nine flow scenarios representing past, present, and possible future hydrology were developed as the primary model input. Both reach-scale drivers such as stream channel conditions and pollutant loads, as well as ecological conditions, including species composition, interactions, and habitat requirements influenced model-predicted ecosystem outcomes. Model output consisted of probability distributions for eight ecological indicators collectively representing the physical setting, aquatic life, and riparian habitats of the river ecosystem. We are confident in model predictions related to probable trends, relative magnitude of changes and potential ecosystem responses to changing flow conditions, though data availability and the process of converting diverse data types into a common unit (probabilities) limit precision of individual results. Key findings suggest that: The present ecological function of the Poudre River is altered as a result of more than 150 years of human influences that include highly managed flows, urbanization, gravel mining, channelization and urban and industrial encroachment in the floodplain, underscoring the vulnerable and complex character of the Poudre River; A continuation of today’s flow management will lead to ongoing changes in ecosystem condition, and additional water depletions will compromise ecological conditions; High flows play an essential role in maintaining and improving the aquatic and riparian condition of the river; Adequate flows in base-flow periods are critical to desirable water quality, and thriving fish and insect populations; Improvement of native aquatic life is possible if issues related to channel modifications, siltation, invasive species, and base and high flow conditions are managed properly; The present confined river channel and modified flows has reduced the potential for a keystone and iconic species, plains cottonwood, to be self-sustaining in the study area; The streamside corridor retains the potential to support a functioning riparian forest that provides important ecological services if periodic floodplain inundation occurs. Environmental flows that combine stable and adequate flows in base-flow periods with occasional rejuvenating high flows that meet target levels defined in this study are likely improve all biological indicators across the system. ERM test scenarios that include both stable base flows and rejuvenating high flows indicate that substantial improvements in the river ecosystem can be achieved with improved management of flow volumes similar to those observed in the river during the last half century of intensive water development. These results underscore the possibility of improving the river ecosystem through active management while still maintaining the Poudre’s diverse economic benefits and role as a working river. The ERM was designed to represent the multi-dimensional ecological character of the contemporary urban Poudre River. It provides a scientific foundation that can serve as a decision support tool and foster a more informed community discussion about the future of the river as it provides a better understanding of the likely response of the Poudre River ecosystem to environmental flow management and other stewardship activities. In particular, model results can assist managers in developing specific management actions to achieve desirable goals for key indicators of river health.

Colorado↗
USGS2019

Evaluating community-level response to management actions across a diverse Hawaiian forest bird community

Although species‐specific approaches are necessary to understand the dynamics of individual species composing a community, they do not offer a framework for making optimal management decisions at the community level. Here, we present a simple framework for comparing the response of entire communities to multiple management scenarios. Our approach uses a weighted average of standardized species‐specific responses to produce a single integrative measure of the community response and employs mixed‐effect linear models to quantify the increase in the community response due to each management action, or combination of actions. We demonstrate our approach with a simulation study assessing the potential benefits of multiple management actions on the avian community of Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawaiʻi, which is composed of eight native species with conservation status varying from endangered to least concern. Management actions considered included a reduction of avian malaria transmission risk, reducing rat predation, and increasing forest habitat. We used three different prioritization (weighting) schemes to assess whether the response to management actions differed along a conservation gradient (from endangered to least concern). We also investigated whether future changes in disease distribution as a result of climate change will alter the relationship between management practices and community response. Our community‐level analysis produced three important insights, highlighting the need to consider the response from multiple species to changing threats and management actions. First, increasing the amount of habitat always had the greatest positive impact on the avian community, regardless of the weighting scheme. Second, the community response to management was different under current vs. future conditions, with increased benefit in the future when disease risks were higher. Third, the response to management varied along the conservation gradient. Reducing malaria transmission risk in 2100 had the greatest benefit to endangered species, while increasing forest habitat had the greatest benefit to “least concern” species. However, reducing rat predation appeared to benefit a subset of species based on ecological factors unrelated to rarity, such as nest accessibility. Our approach is widely applicable using experimental, observational, or simulation‐based data, allowing managers to consider the response of all species while weighting their priority levels.

Hawaii↗