Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Enviornmental Monitoring and Assessment”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,662 records · Page 16Linked to original sources
USGS1996

Analysis of nutrients in the surface waters of the Georgia–Florida Coastal Plain study unit, 1970–91

During the early phase of the Georgia-Florida National Water Quality Assessment study, existing information on nutrients was compiled and analyzed in order to evaluate the nutrient concentrations within the 61,545 square mile study unit. Evaluation of the nutrient concentrations collected at surface-water sites between October 1, 1970, and September 30, 1991, utilized the environmental characteristics of land resource provinces, land use, and nonpoint and point-source discharges within the study unit. Long-term trends were investigated to determine the temporal distribution of nutrient concentrations. In order to determine a level of concern for nutrient concentrations, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidelines were used: (1) for nitrate concentrations, the maximum contaminant level in public-drinking water supplies (10 mg/L); (2) for ammonia concentrations, the chronic exposure of aquatic organisms to un-ionized ammonia (2.1 mg/L); (3) for total-phosphorus concentrations, the recommended concentration in flowing water to discourage excessive growth of aquatic plants (0.1 mg/L); and (4) for kjeldahl concentrations, however, no guidelines were available. For sites within the 10 major river basins, median nutrient concentrations were enerally below USEPA guidelines, except for total-phosphorus concentrations where 45 percent of the medians exceeded the guideline. The only median ammonia concentration that exceeded the guideline occurred at the Swift Creek site (3.4 mg/L), in the Suwannee River basin, perhaps due to wastewater discharges. For all sites within the Withlacoochee, Aucilla, and St. Marys River basins, median concentrations of nitrate, ammonia, and total phosphorus were below the USEPA guidelines. Nutrient data at each monitoring site within each major basin were aggregated for comparisons of median nutrient concentrations among major basins. The Ochlockonee and Hillsborough River basins had the highest median nutrient concentrations, the Aucilla River basin had the lowest. Median concentrations of nitrate and ammonia among all major basins were below USEPA guidelines. The median total-phosphorus concentrations for the following river basins exceeded the USEPA guideline: Hillsborough, St. Johns, Suwannee, Ochlockonee, Satilla, Altamaha, and Ogeechee. Although nutrient concentrations within the study unit were low, long-term increasing trends were found in all four nutrients. All 18 study-unit wide nitrate trends had increasing slopes ranging from less than 0.01 to 0.07 (mg/L)/yr. The range in slope for the 13 ammonia trends was -0.03 to 0.01 (mg/L)/yr with 6 increasing trends in the northern part of the study unit. Of the 17 total-phosphorus trends found in the study unit, 10 were found at sites where the median concentration exceeded the USEPA guideline. At these 10 sites, 4 sites had increasing trends with slopes ranging from less than 0.01 to 0.07 (mg/L)/yr, 5 sites had decreasing trends with slopes ranging from -0.01 to -0.24 (mg/L)/yr, and one site showed a seasonal concentration trend. Median nutrient concentrations were significantly different among the four land resource provinces: Southern Piedmont, Southern Coastal Plain, Coastal Flatwoods, and Central Florida Ridge. As a result, nutrient concentrations among basins with similar nutrient inputs but located within different land resource provinces are not expected to be the same due to differences in the combination of factors such as soil permeability, runoff rates, and stream channel slopes. This concept is an important consideration in designing a surface-water quality network within the study area. For the most part, the Coastal Flatwoods showed the lowest median nutrient concentrations and the Southern Coastal Plain had the highest median nutrient concentrations. Lower median nitrate concentrations in surface-water basins were associated with the forest/wetland land-use category and higher median concentrations of nitrate and ammonia with the urban category when land-use percentages were classified into four land-use categories (agriculture, forest/wetland, mixed, and urban). These results were reasonable based on expected high nutrient inputs from urban areas and low inputs from forested and wetland areas. However, the lack of association between high nutrient concentrations and the agricultural land-use category was not expected since high nutrient inputs are generally needed for agriculture production.

Florida, Georgia↗
USGS2024

Improving crop-specific groundwater use estimation in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain: Implications for integrated remote sensing and machine learning approaches in data-scarce regions

Study region The Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) in the United States (US). Study focus Understanding local-scale groundwater use, a critical component of the water budget, is necessary for implementing sustainable water management practices. The MAP is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the US and extracts more than 11 km 3 /year for irrigation activities. Consequently, groundwater-level declines in the MAP region pose a substantial challenge to water sustainability, and hence, we need reliable groundwater pumping monitoring solutions to manage this resource appropriately. New hydrological insights for the region We incorporate remote sensing datasets and machine learning to improve an existing lookup table-based model of groundwater use previously developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Here, we employ Distributed Random Forests, an ensemble machine learning algorithm to predict annual and monthly groundwater use (2014–2020) throughout this region at 1-km resolution, using pumping data from existing flowmeters in the Mississippi Delta. Our model compares favorably with the existing USGS model, with higher R 2 (0.51 compared to 0.42 in the previous model), and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE)— 0.14 m and 0.09 m, respectively in our model, compared to 0.15 m and 0.1 m in the previous model. Therefore, this work advances our ability to predict groundwater use in regions with scarce or limited in-situ groundwater withdrawal data availability.

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies↗
USGS2025

Metal-rich lacustrine sediments from legacy mining perpetuate copper exposure to aquatic-riparian food webs

Historic copper mining left a legacy of metal-rich tailings resulting in ecological impacts along and within Torch Lake, an area of concern in the Keweenaw Peninsula, Michigan, USA. Given the toxicity of copper to invertebrates, this study assessed the influence of this legacy on present day nearshore aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We measured the metal (Co, Cu, Ni, Zn, Cd) and metalloid (As) concentrations in sediment, pore water, surface water, larval and adult insects, and two riparian spider taxa collected from Torch Lake and a nearby reference lake. Overall, elevated metal and metalloid concentrations, particularly Cu, were measured in all sediment samples and some surface and pore water samples collected from Torch Lake. For instance, Cu concentrations in the Torch Lake sediment were ∼200% higher than the reference lake and all measured concentrations exceeded predicted effects concentrations by at least ninefold. Within larval insect tissues, we observed 160% higher Cu concentrations than measured in the reference lake, and Cu was the only measured element above predicted effects concentrations in Torch Lake. Adult insects collected at both lakes had similar metal concentrations irrespective of exposure levels. Yet we found 100% higher copper concentrations in Torch Lake riparian spiders, demonstrating elevated exposure risk to insectivores across the aquatic-terrestrial boundary. Our results highlight that other metals in the mixture may not be as concerning to adjacent riparian ecosystems, but copper remains a contaminant of concern in Torch Lake 60 years after mining ceased.

Michigan↗
USGS2025

Updating and recalibrating the integrated Santa Rosa Plain Hydrologic Model to assess stream depletion and to simulate future climate and management scenarios in Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, California

The Santa Rosa Plain Hydrologic Model (SRPHM) was developed and published in 2014 through a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Sonoma Water to analyze the hydrologic system in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, help meet the increasing demand for fresh water, and prepare for future uncertainties in water resources. The original model simulated hydrological conditions and water use from water years 1975 to 2010. Recently (2023), the USGS, in cooperation with Sonoma Water and the California State Water Resources Control Board, updated the SRPHM model to extend its simulation period to the end of the 2018 calendar year, incorporate new estimates of rural and agricultural water use, and use efficient input format for climate variables. The updated model was recalibrated, and evaluation of the new model calibration is included in this report. This report presents the results of comparing the hydraulic heads, streamflow, and groundwater budget simulated by the updated model with those generated by the original model and observed data. The main difference in the simulated budget between the original and updated SRPHM is the estimates of agricultural pumping, rural domestic pumping, and return flow generated from rural water use that was not simulated in the original model. The revised agricultural pumping is simulated using the agricultural package, which constrains pumping to available groundwater. The use of the agricultural package leads to a more realistic estimation of agricultural water use, with revised agricultural pumping being one-third less than that in the original model. The revised rural pumping is about half of the pumping in the original model because of using detailed parcel data to estimate population density in rural areas instead of coarse census tracts. Overall, average total inflows for water years 2006–10 simulated by the updated model were about 2 percent less than the original model, and the average total updated outflows were nearly 5 percent less than the original model. The updated model was then used to generate stream depletion maps, simulate climate change scenarios during 2019–99, and simulate water rights allocation using the Model for Decision Support in Integrated River Basin Management (MODSIM). The results from simulating eight future climate scenarios indicated either an increase in groundwater storage or no significant change in the next 80 years, along with an increase in recharge, an increase in actual evapotranspiration in six out of eight climate projections, and an increase in surface runoff. The increases in the simulated future groundwater storage, recharge, evapotranspiration, and runoff in most climate projections are mainly driven by the projected increase in precipitation in most of the future climate scenarios. The updated model also was used to test a pilot case study demonstrating water-resource allocation among different users with different water rights using the integrated MODSIM-Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow Model (GSFLOW) platform. The updated SRPHM serves as a valuable tool for analyzing historical and future hydrologic conditions in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed and preparing for future uncertainties.

California↗
USGS2026

Potential impacts of groundwater pumping on stream temperature are greatest in streams with substantial cold groundwater inflows

Groundwater pumping-induced reductions in streamflow (known as ‘streamflow depletion’) have been documented worldwide, but potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature are not well understood. Here, we use two types of models to identify potential impacts of pumping on stream temperature across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to determine which aspects of a stream's annual thermograph (thermal signatures) can be used to monitor and manage streamflow depletion impacts on stream temperature. We used long-term streamflow and stream temperature data from 30 streamgages across CONUS and surrogate models of streamflow depletion to analyse potential stream temperature impacts at each site. We compared two different stream temperature modelling approaches: (i) a process-based energy balance model and (ii) statistical regression models based on air temperature and stream discharge. We calculated a suite of thermal signatures under depleted and non-depleted conditions for each stream and found that maximum annual 7-day temperature and annual temperature range are potentially the most sensitive to streamflow depletion, with potential changes of at least 2°C at > 70% of the sites when using the process-based model. We also found that the regression-based models predicted much less sensitivity of stream temperature to streamflow depletion than the process-based model. This work provides an initial evaluation and sensitivity analysis of the potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature. We demonstrate that stream temperature may be most sensitive to pumping in streams with a high proportion of flow sourced from relatively cold groundwater inputs, and that regression-based stream temperature models may underpredict stream temperature changes caused by streamflow depletion.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Concentration-discharge relations and transient metal loads reveal spatiotemporal variability in solute-generation mechanisms in a mine-affected watershed

Concentration-discharge (CQ) relations are commonly used to understand geochemical and hydrologic controls on the generation of solutes in watersheds. Despite the widespread application of CQ relations, this technique has been infrequently applied to acid mine drainage (AMD) sites, but the CQ framework may allow mechanistic understanding of remedial outcomes such as impoundment of water within underground mines. Results of CQ analyses and changes in metal loads in an AMD affected watershed in Colorado, USA indicate that dissolved loads increased at many individual locations following water impoundment within mine workings. Although increased loads were observed at most individual locations, these increases were offset by a large decrease in loading from the largest mine. A loading analysis that included data from an instream monitoring location showed a statistically significant decrease in Fe and Zn after bulkhead emplacement, indicating a net positive effect of bulkheads. Streams generally displayed dilution CQ patterns whereas mines and springs showed either flushing or chemostatic patterns prior to bulkheading, which transitioned to chemostatic patterns following bulkheading, indicating a transition from dynamic to equilibrium geochemical processes. Saturation indices for sulfide and secondary minerals indicated that mines and springs were near equilibrium for phases including schwertmannite, fluorite, and gypsum. Saturation indices vary through time for mines suggesting progressive leaching of sulfide minerals as the mass of available minerals in the mine workings decreases. Together, these diverse analyses provide an integrated understanding of the variability in solute generating processes in this watershed and may inform remediation plans for similarly affected sites by indicating the nature of mineralogic controls on water quality.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Impact of gas/liquid phase change of CO2 during injection for sequestration

CO 2 sequestration in deep saline formations is an effective and important process to control the rapid rise in CO 2 emissions. The process of injecting CO 2 requires reliable predictions of the stress in the formation and the fluid pressure distributions – particularly since monitoring of the CO 2 migration is difficult – to mitigate leakage, prevent induced seismicity, and analyze wellbore stability. A key aspect of CO 2 is the gas–liquid phase transition at the temperatures and pressures of relevance to leakage and sequestration, which has been recognized as being critical for accurate predictions but has been challenging to model without ad hoc empiricisms. This paper presents a robust multiphase thermodynamics-based poromechanics model to capture the complex phase transition behavior of CO 2 and predict the stress and pressure distribution under super- and sub- critical conditions during the injection process. A finite element implementation of the model is applied to analyze the behavior of a multiphase porous system with CO 2 as it displaces the fluid brine phase. We find that if CO 2 undergoes a phase transition in the geologic reservoir, the spatial variation of the density is significantly affected, and the migration mobility of CO 2 decreases in the reservoir. A key feature of our approach is that we do not a priori assume the location of the CO 2 gas/liquid interface – or even if it occurs at all – but rather, this is a prediction of the model, along with the spatial variation of the phase of CO 2 and the change of the saturation profile due to the phase change.

Journal of the Mechanics and Physics of Solids↗
USGS2025

Preface to the focus section on earthquake-induced ground deformation

Ground failure due to earthquake-induced liquefaction, surface fault rupture, and landsliding has caused substantial damage in the past and continues to pose risks to critical infrastructure in the future. The consideration of ground failure is central to engineering analysis and design, ranging from site-specific engineering assessments of ground failure potential to broader regional-scale ground failure assessments of near-real-time earthquake impacts or longer-term portfolio risk. Uncertainties in all aspects of the problem complicate the prediction of earthquake-induced ground failure, including the identification of hazard-susceptible geomaterials, characterizing their spatial extent and physical properties, spatio-temporal variability in groundwater conditions, characterization of earthquake ground motions, assessing ground failure severity, and linking ground failure severity to infrastructure damage and loss.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2025

A generalized deep learning model to detect and classify volcano seismicity

Volcano seismicity is often detected and classified based on its spectral properties. However, the wide variety of volcano seismic signals and increasing amounts of data make accurate, consistent, and efficient detection and classification challenging. Machine learning (ML) has proven very effective at detecting and classifying tectonic seismicity, particularly using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and leveraging labeled datasets from regional seismic networks. Progress has been made applying ML to volcano seismicity, but efforts have typically been focused on a single volcano and are often hampered by the limited availability of training data. We build on the method of Tan et al. [2024] ( 10.1029/2024JB029194 ) to generalize a spectrogram-based CNN termed the VOlcano Infrasound and Seismic Spectrogram Neural Network ( VOISS-Net ) to detect and classify volcano seismicity at any volcano. We use a diverse training dataset of over 270,000 spectrograms from multiple volcanoes: Pavlof, Semisopochnoi, Tanaga, Takawangha, and Redoubt volcanoes\replaced (Alaska, USA); Mt. Etna (Italy); and Kīlauea, Hawai`i (USA). These volcanoes present a wide range of volcano seismic signals, source-receiver distances, and eruption styles. Our generalized VOISS-Net model achieves an accuracy of 87 % on the test set. We apply this model to continuous data from several volcanoes and eruptions included within and outside our training set, and find that multiple types of tremor, explosions, earthquakes, long-period events, and noise are successfully detected and classified. The model occasionally confuses transient signals such as earthquakes and explosions and misclassifies seismicity not included in the training dataset (e.g. teleseismic earthquakes). We envision the generalized VOISS-Net model to be applicable in both research and operational volcano monitoring settings.

Volcanica↗
USGS2025

Gas emissions from the Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine hydrothermal system, Clear Lake volcanic field, California

The Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine (SBMM) hydrothermal system offers insights into active degassing processes in the Clear Lake volcanic field (CLVF), a high-threat region based on its record of Holocene eruptions and proximity to populated areas. Here we present chemical and isotopic analyses of gas samples collected between 2015 and 2023, along with the first comprehensive CO 2 flux survey of the SBMM area conducted in 2023. Sampled gases are CO 2 - and CH 4 -rich (≥84 and 6 mol% in dry gas, respectively) with high mantle-derived helium contributions ( 3 He/ 4 He = 6.54–7.86 R C /R A ). Carbon isotopic compositions of CO 2 (δ 13 C = −10.0 to −9.5 ‰) and CH 4 (δ 13 C = −35.8 ‰) indicate mixed sources, with significant contributions from metamorphism of organic-rich Franciscan Complex rocks hosting the hydrothermal system. Modeling of gas compositions shows that scrubbing by interaction with air-saturated groundwater strongly influences observed compositional variability. From our CO₂ flux measurements, we estimate the deeply derived CO 2 emission rate from the SBMM hydrothermal area (0.2 km 2 ) at 240 t d −1 , comparable to many quiescently degassing volcanoes worldwide. We also provide a first-order estimate of CH 4 emissions at approximately 0.5 t d −1 . Our findings establish crucial baseline data for future volcanic monitoring efforts, enhancing detection capabilities for potential changes in this active hydrothermal system. This work contributes to the broader understanding of volatile contributions from volcanic and metamorphic sources to the global carbon budget, while highlighting the strong influence of bedrock geology on gas compositions in the CLVF.

California↗
USGS2026

Global performance of remote sensing-based and reanalysis-driven models to estimate open water evaporation

Evaporation plays an essential role in the water cycle, influencing local and regional climates while directly impacting water availability in lakes. However, directly measuring evaporation over water bodies remains challenging due to the high costs of installing and maintaining the required in situ instrumentation. Although several remote sensing algorithms have been providing evaporation estimates, the lack of a global validation hinders our understanding of their relative uncertainties and performances across different regions. Here, we analyze the performance of a suite of models that leverage satellite data and meteorological reanalysis to estimate evaporation over lakes worldwide. We compare 3 remote sensing-based models, 1 reanalysis-driven model and 1 ensemble approach, using in situ observations from 27 lakes representing a diverse range of geographic and climatic regions. Our results demonstrate that, overall, the ensemble outperformed any individual model in terms of accuracy, with a RMSE and a bias of 1.3 and 0.3 mm day −1 , respectively. These findings highlight the benefits of using an ensemble approach to estimate open water evaporation with satellite-based models at the global scale, leveraging the unique strengths of each model. For the individual models, differences in the representation of heat storage changes and advection effects led to lower values of RMSE and bias, depending on the location and depth of the lakes. This study sets the path for future improvement of open water evaporation algorithms globally, while remote sensing techniques are proven satisfactory to monitoring of water loss in lakes globally, an essential step toward effective large-scale water resources management.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS1998

Assessment of the hydraulic connection between ground water and the Peace River, west-central Florida

The hydraulic connection between the Peace River and the underlying aquifers along the length of the Peace River from Bartow to Arcadia was assessed to evaluate flow exchanges between these hydrologic systems. Methods included an evaluation of hydrologic and geologic records and seismic-reflection profiles, seepage investigations, and thermal infrared imagery interpretation. Along the upper Peace River, a progressive long-term decline in streamflow has occurred since 1931 due to a lowering of the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer by as much as 60 feet because of intensive ground-water withdrawals for phosphate mining and agriculture. Another effect from lowering the potentiometric surface has been the cessation of flow at several springs located near and within the Peace River channel, including Kissengen Spring, that once averaged a flow of about 19 million gallons a day. The lowering of ground-water head resulted in flow reversals at locations where streamflow enters sinkholes along the streambed and floodplain. Hydrogeologic conditions along the Peace River vary from Bartow to Arcadia. Three distinctive hydrogeologic areas along the Peace River were delineated: (1) the upper Peace River near Bartow, where ground-water recharge occurs; (2) the middle Peace River near Bowling Green, where reversals of hydraulic gradients occur; and (3) the lower Peace River near Arcadia, where ground-water discharge occurs. Seismic-reflection data were used to identify geologic features that could serve as potential conduits for surface-water and ground-water exchange. Depending on the hydrologic regime, this exchange could be recharge of surface water into the aquifer system or discharge of ground water into the stream channel. Geologic features that would provide pathways for water movement were identified in the seismic record; they varied from buried irregular surfaces to large-scale subsidence flexures and vertical fractures or enlarged solution conduits. Generally, the upper Peace River is characterized by a shallow, buried irregular top of rock, numerous observed sinkholes, and subsidence depressions. The downward head gradient provides potential for the Peace River to lose water to the ground-water system. Along the middle Peace River area, head gradients alternate between downward and upward, creating both recharging and discharging ground-water conditions. Seismic records show that buried, laterally continuous reflectors in the lower Peace River pinch out in the middle Peace River streambed. Small springs have been observed along the streambed where these units pinch out. This area corresponds to the region where highest ground-water seepage volumes were measured during this study. Further south, along the lower Peace River, upward head gradients provide conditions for ground-water discharge into the Peace River. Generally, confinement between the surficial aquifer and the confined ground-water systems in this area is better than to the north. However, localized avenues for surface-water and ground-water interactions may exist along discontinuities observed in seismic reflectors associated with large-scale flexures or subsidence features. Ground-water seepage gains or losses along the Peace River were quantified by making three seepage runs during periods of: (1) low base flow, (2) high base flow, and (3) high flow. Low and high base-flow seepage runs were performed along a 74-mile length of the Peace River, between Bartow and Nocatee. Maximum losses of 17.3 cubic feet per second (11.2 million gallons per day) were measured along a 3.2-mile reach of the upper Peace River. The high-flow seepage run was conducted to quantify losses in the Peace River channel and floodplain between Bartow and Fort Meade. Seepage losses calculated during high-flow along a 7.2-mile reach of the Peace River, from the Clear Springs Mine bridge to the Mobil Mine bridge, were approximately 10 percent of the river flow, or 118 cubic feet per second. Calculated seepages along the Peace River in Hardee and De Soto Counties were inconclusive, because most seepages were within the range of discharge measurement error. Two continuous aerial thermal infrared imagery surveys were conducted to locate sites of ground-water discharge along the Peace River. Although temperature and hydrologic conditions were ideal to observe spring flow using thermal infrared imaging techniques, no sources of ground-water discharge were identified using this method. Diffuse ground-water seepage may, however, provide significant ground-water discharge.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Estimating the probability of export restrictions to inform mineral criticality

To assess risks associated with advanced technologies’ supply chain disruptions, governmental agencies and others have developed mineral “criticality” assessments, with criticality described using the economic impact and probability of supply chain disruptions. Previous work developed subjective supply risk indicators to approximate this probability, typically combining several factors such as supply diversity and trading partners’ political stability, where indicator weightings can substantially impact results. This work explicitly quantifies export barrier probability using an ensemble of machine learning classifiers, with probability estimates informed by exogenous variables, including prior barrier implementation and global export dominance. Major differences in high-probability countries and commodities are observed across models, but the ensemble method highlights Indonesia, China, Tanzania, and the United States as particularly high risk. The Supplementary Data File provides export barrier probability estimates for each analyzed country-commodity pair, enabling a direct, quantitative, objective contribution to assessing mineral criticality, enhancing risk identification and prioritization for policymakers.

Resources, Conservation, and Recycling↗
USGS2025

Estimating the probability of export restrictions to inform mineral criticality

As demand for advanced technologies rises, mineral commodities will increase in geopolitical importance. To assess risks associated with mineral commodity supply chain disruptions, governmental agencies and others have developed "criticality" assessments, with criticality described using the economic impact and probability of supply chain disruptions. In previous work, subjective supply risk indicators were developed to approximate this probability, typically combining several factors such as supply diversity and political stability of trading partners, where indicator weightings can substantially impact results. This work explicitly quantifies trade barrier probability using an ensemble of several machine learning classifiers, with probability estimates informed by exogenous variables such as prior trade barrier implementation and global export dominance. Major differences in the high-probability countries and commodities are observed across models, but the ensemble method highlights Indonesia, China, Tanzania, and the United States as particularly high risk. This approach enables a direct, quantitative, objective approach to assessing trade barrier probability, enhancing risk identification and prioritization for policymakers.

SSRN↗
USGS2025

Estimating earthquake source depth using teleseismic broadband waveform modeling at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center

The U.S. Geologic Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) monitors global seismicity, producing a catalog of earthquake source parameters in near-real-time to provide information that can help mitigate the societal impact of earthquakes. The NEIC commonly relies on teleseismic observations to constrain earthquake source parameters (e.g., location, depth, magnitude, and mechanism) due to a lack of local and regional observations. For these ‘teleseismic’ events, depth phase (i.e., pP , sP ) arrival time observations provide the best estimate on source depth. However, depth phases are often difficult to accurately identify and/or pick. Therefore, NEIC relies on waveform modeling, such as those determined from W-phase ( M ww ), body wave ( M wb ), and regional ( M wr ) moment tensor estimations, to provide constraints on source depth. While depth estimates from these approaches are informative, higher frequency observations provide more precise estimates because depth phases are more prominently observed at higher frequencies. Here, we present NEIC’s relatively high-frequency (~0.04 to 1 Hz) teleseismic waveform modeling approach, termed Synthetic Depth Phase Modeling (SynDepth), for determining source depth. SynDepth was developed to provide NEIC with a tool that enables rapid, accurate, and quantifiable estimates of earthquake source depth in cases where locator depths are not reliable. This relatively simple and fast procedure searches over 1 km-incremented source depths and an expanding triangular source-time function to find the best-fitting solution. We compare automatic SynDepth solutions for a dataset of 1,216 earthquakes (M5.5-M7.6) between 2017 and 2021 to NEIC-derived depth estimates from other methods. Our approach provides a robust depth estimate for earthquakes lacking local arrival time data, and it minimizes the need for analyst review of depth-phase picks ( pP , sP ) or using predefined ‘fixed’ depths.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2025

Gulf Coast Basin CORE-CM initiative final report

The Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin (UT-BEG) is leading the Gulf Coast Carbon Ore, Rare Earth, and Critical Minerals (CORE-CM) Initiative to assess the potential to produce critical minerals (CMs), including rare earth elements (REEs) from coal, coal ash, and produced water related to oil and gas production, and related materials (alumina processing waste [red mud], heavy mineral sands, graphite, and zeolite) within the Gulf Coast Basin. This project represents the first phase in a long-term program and provides reconnaissance data that will be foundational for future work by assessing resources and suggesting plans to be conducted in future work and expanding stakeholder engagement. The project includes several tasks designed to identify, characterize, and assess several necessary aspects for development of CMs and REEs in the Gulf Coast Basin.

Gulf Coast basin↗
USGS2012

Development of vegetation based soil quality indices for mineralized terrane in arid and semi-arid regions

Soil quality indices (SQIs) are often management driven and attempt to describe key relationships between above- and below-ground parameters. In terrestrial systems, indices that were initially developed and modified for agroecosystems have been applied to non-agricultural systems in increasing number. We develop an SQI in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of the Western US impacted by different types of geologic mineralization using the relationship between vegetation community parameters and soil abiotic and biotic properties. We analyze these relations in soils associated with three different mineralization types: podiform chromite, Cu/Mo porphyry, and acid-sulfate gold vein systems at four different sites in California and Nevada. Soil samples were collected from undisturbed soils in both mineralized and nearby unmineralized substrates as well as from waste rock and tailings. Aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), canopy cover and shrub density were measured for the vegetative communities. Minimum data sets were developed based on correlations between the soil and vegetation parameters, refined using principal components analysis, scored using non-linear functions, and combined into an overall SQI. The indices are comprised of one or two microbial parameters and three to six abiotic parameters, the latter consisting of nutrients and metals. Given the preliminary development of this approach, the parameters and combinations to arrive at an SQI for a given site cannot at this time be correlated or compared with that of another site. This SQI approach provides a means of quantifying disturbed ecosystem recovery resulting from mining, and could be applied to other disturbances in a way that readily distills the information for potential use by land managers. However, severely disturbed areas with little to no aboveground biomass, such as unreclaimed tailings, have likely crossed an ecological threshold that precludes the use of this type of monitoring tool.

California↗
USGS2025

A newly identified creeping strand of the Concord fault, San Francisco Bay Area

The Concord fault constitutes a major branch of the Pacific–North America transform plate boundary in Northern California, bridging the strike‐slip Bartlett Springs ‐ Green Valley Fault system to the north with the Greenville and Calaveras Faults to the south. Like many faults in the San Francisco Bay Area its long‐term slip is partially accommodated by aseismic slip (creep). Although creep has been recognized and monitored on the northern half of the fault for decades, the precise location of the southern half of the fault and its slip rate—whether accommodated seismically or aseismically—has remained enigmatic. How slip transfers between the Concord and Greenville or Calaveras faults to the south remains an outstanding question. New field observations presented here indicate that the active trace of the fault south of downtown Concord is not where previously interpreted and is indeed actively creeping. We report observations of shallow creep continuing >7 km farther south along the Concord fault than previously reported, along a fault strand not previously recognized for most of its length. This is evident as right‐laterally deflected concrete curbs and sidewalk slabs on both sides of every street that crosses the fault at a high angle in southeast Concord and northeast Walnut Creek. We document the magnitude and location of these deflections to estimate accumulated right‐lateral aseismic slip expressed in engineered structures. Offsets of these piercing lines range from 8 to 18 cm, over widths varying from narrow breaks along centimeter‐scale concrete joints to 10‐m‐wide zones of deflection. Significantly, this active trace is ∼400 m west of where the Quaternary active trace has previously been inferred, placing it within—rather than bounding—the built area of suburban Concord. Slip along the fault has already caused infrastructure damage. These results revise our understanding of the southern Concord fault and help constrain its seismic potential.

California↗