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McVCO handbook 1999

McVCO is a microcontroller-based frequency generator that replaces the voltage controlled oscillator (VCO) used in the analog telemetry of seismic data. It accepts low-level signals from a seismometer and produces a frequency modulated subcarrier suitable for radio or telephone links to a data collection site. McVCO was designed for the purpose of improving the analog telemetry of signals within the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network (PNSN). Its development received support from the University of Washington Geophysics Program, and both the Volcano Hazards and Earthquake Hazards programs of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). This handbook covers operation of McVCO, provides a technical reference for those who require a closer look at how McVCO works, and covers a collection of topics that need explicit treatment or that spring from deployment of the instrument.

Open-File Report↗

Mount St. Helens Volcano

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

Some aspects of the early history of seismology

From the earliest times, people have been terrified yet fascinated by the workings of the Earth. Indeed records of earthquakes have been kept in China for over 3000 years and for 1500 years in Japan. because of the interior of the Earth is inaccessible, nothing about it could be known with any certainty. For thousands of years, thinkers and writers could base their conclusions on a limited number of observations, some of which were as follows; the Earth was not stable and sometimes shook violently; the earthquakes produced were more frequent in some localities than in others; they were sometimes accompanied by heavy rumblings, fissures in the ground, changes in the level of the land, and tidal waves. Oftentimes earthquakes were associated with volcanoes or "burning mountains."

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises. The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking. The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations. The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than when using a regional network of seismometers. Given the current network, a single-station approach provides more warning for damaging earthquakes that occur close to the station, but it would have limited benefit compared to a fully implemented ShakeAlert system. For Honolulu, for example, the single-station approach provides an advantage over ShakeAlert only for earthquakes that occur in a narrow zone extending northeast and southwest of O‘ahu. Instrumentation and alarms associated with the single-station approach are typically maintained and assessed within the target facility, and thus no outside connectivity is required. A single-station approach, then, is unlikely to help broader populations beyond the individuals at the target facility, but they have the benefit of being commercially available for relatively little cost. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) is the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional seismic network responsible for locating and characterizing earthquakes across the State of Hawaii. During 2014 and 2015, HVO tested a network-based EEW algorithm within the current seismic network in order to assess the suitability for building a full EEW system. Using the current seismic instrumentation and processing setup at HVO, it is possible for a network approach to release an alarm a little more than 3 seconds after the earthquake is recorded on the fourth seismometer. Presently, earthquakes having M≥3 detected with the ElarmS algorithm have an average location error of approximately 4.5 km and an average magnitude error of -0.3 compared to the reviewed catalog locations from the HVO. Additional stations and upgrades to existing seismic stations would serve to improve solution precision and warning times and additional staffing would be required to provide support for a robust, network-based EEW system. For a critical facility on the Island of Hawaiʻi, such as the telescopes atop Mauna Kea, one phased approach to mitigate losses could be to immediately install a single station system to establish some level of warning. Subsequently, supporting the implementation of a full network-based EEW system on the Island of Hawaiʻi would provide additional benefit in the form of improved warning times once the system is fully installed and operational, which may take several years. Distributed populations across the Hawaiian Islands, including those outside the major cities and far from the likely earthquake source areas, would likely only benefit from a network approach such as ShakeAlert to provide warnings of strong shaking.

Hawaii↗

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory seismic data, January to March 2009

This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) summary presents seismic data gathered during January–March 2009. The seismic summary offers earthquake hypocenters without interpretation as a source of preliminary data and is complete in that most data for events of M≥1.5 are included. All latitude and longitude references in this report are stated in Old Hawaiian Datum. The HVO summaries have been published in various forms since 1956. Summaries prior to 1974 were issued quarterly, but cost, convenience of preparation and distribution, and the large quantities of data necessitated an annual publication, beginning with Summary 74 for the year 1974. Since 2004, summaries have been identified simply by year, rather than by summary number. Summaries originally issued as administrative reports were republished in 2007 as Open-File Reports. All the summaries since 1956 are available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1316-1345/ (last accessed 02/24/2010). In January 1986, HVO adopted CUSP ( C alifornia Institute of Technology U SGS S eismic P rocessing). Summary 86, available at http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/usgspubs/ofr/ofr92301 (last accessed 02/24/2010), includes a description of the seismic instrumentation, calibration, and processing used in recent years. The present summary includes background information about the seismic network to provide the end user with an understanding of the processing parameters and how the data were gathered. Earthworm software, documentation available at http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/ew-doc/ (last accessed 02/24/2010), was first installed at HVO in 1999 as part of an upgrade to tsunami warning capabilities in the Pacific region. This improved and expanded data exchange with the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa Beach, Oahu, that included not only seismic waveforms, but also parametric earthquake data. Although Earthworm does included modules for earthquake triggering and earthquake location, this software was never used to generate catalog hypocenter locations at HVO. During 2009, HVO migrated from CUSP to seismic processing software developed by the C alifornia I ntegrated S eismic N etwork or CISN. This software is now referred to as AQMS, for A dvanced National Seismic System Q uake M anagement S ystem. Summary data for this year will be presented in two reports; the first report includes earthquakes processed on the CUSP platform for January–March; earthquakes for the last three quarters, processed on the AQMS platform, will be published in a separate summary with a description of AQMS production parameters. A report by Klein and Koyanagi (USGS Open-File Report 80-302, 1980) tabulates instrumentation, calibration, and recording history of each seismic station in the network. It is designed as a reference for users of seismograms and phase data and includes and augments the information in the station table in this summary. Figures 11–14 are maps showing computer-located hypocenters. The maps were generated using the G eneric M apping T ools (GMT), found at http://gmt.soest.hawaii.edu/ (last accessed 01/22/2010), in place of traditional QPLOT maps.

Hawai'i↗

Evaluation of some software measuring displacements using GPS in real-time

For the past decade, the USGS has been monitoring deformation at various locations in the western United States using continuous GPS. The main focus of these measurements are estimates of displacement averaged over one day. Essentially, these consist of recording at 30 seconds intervals the carrier-frequency phase-data (equivalent to travel-time) between a GPS receiver and the GPS satellite network. In turn, these observations, which are converted to pseudo—ranges, are processed using one of the “research grade” programs (GIPSY, Zumberge et al., or GAMIT, wwwgpsg.mit.edu/~simon/gtgk) to estimate the position of the GPS receiver averaged over 24 hours. However, it is possible and desirable to estimate the position of the receiver (actually the antenna) more frequently and to do this within a few seconds of the time actual measurement (known as real-time). A recent example, the 2004 Magnitude 6, Parkfield, California earthquake, demonstrated that having GPS estimates of position more frequently than simply a daily average is required if one requires discrimination between co-seismic and post-seismic deformation (Langbein et al., 2006). The high-rate estimates of position obtained at Parkfield show that post-seismic deformation started less than one-hour after the mainshock and that this deformation was roughly the same magnitude as the co-seismic deformation. The high-rate solutions for Parkfield were done by others including Yehuda Bock at UCSD and Kristine Larson at U. of Colorado, but not the USGS. The Parkfield experience points out the need for an in-house capability by the USGS to be able to accurately measure co-seismic displacements and other rapid, deformation signals using GPS. This applies to both the Earthquake and Volcano Hazard programs. Although at many locations where we monitor deformation, we have strainmeters and tiltmeters in addition to GPS which, in principle, are far more sensitive to rapid deformation over periods of less than a day (Langbein and Bock, 2004). But, not all locales include strain and tiltmeters. Thus, having the capability to extract signals with periods of less than a day is desirable since the distribution of GPS is more extensive than strain and tilt. At both Parkfield and Long Valley, the USGS has been using other software packages to process the GPS data at sub-daily intervals and in real-time. The underlying goal of these types of measurements is to detect any deformation event as it evolves; the 24 hour processing might not provide timely results if such a deformation event is precursory to a geologic hazard (an earthquake for Parkfield and either a volcanic event or an earthquake for Long Valley). In Long Valley, We use the software package called 3DTracker (http://www.3dtracker.com, http://www.condorearth.com) to estimate the changes of in position of a remote site relative to a “fixed” site. The 3DTracker software uses double difference GPS code measurements and receiversatellite-time triple differences from one epoch to the next of the GPS phase data (a proxy for travel-time measurements) and employs a Kalman filter to obtain stability in the estimate of position. That is, the estimate of the current position depends upon the estimate of the prior position. Hence, a time series of position looks fairly smooth depending upon the coefficient selected for the Kalman filter. With triple differences, the sometimes troublesome initial integer cycle ambiguity terms cancel (number of wavelengths between the receiver and each satellite), but only the incremental change in position is calculated. This triple difference Kalman filter solution is slow to converge and less accurate than a double difference (e.g., RTD, Track) solution, but it is robust and computationally efficient (Remondi and Brown, 2000). 3D-Tracker allows use of various single-frequency and dual-frequency GPS phase and code observables including the ionospheric-free combinations (known as LC or L3 and P(L3)) formed from an linear combination of the L1 and L2 carrier phase and code data. The lowest noise observable is the L1 carrier, but it is biased by ionospheric refraction that has amplitudes of about 1 to 10 ppm. This results in a systematic scale error in the relative positions. The L3 phase noise is about 3 times greater than the L1 phase noise, but it is generally used to solve for all but the shortest baselines (< 5 km). In addition, the software does output the position changes is a standard format that can be used for other analysis. At Parkfield, we use the software package called RTD (http://www.geodetics.com). The RTD software has been described in the literature (Bock et al., 2000) but basically, it estimates the position without the constraint of a Kalman filter. It uses double differences (in our studies the LC or ionospheric free observable is used) and the integer ambiguities are resolved independently for each 1-second measurement; Most GPS software that use double-differences require several epochs of measurements to resolve the integer ambiguities. The data files use a proprietary format and can not be read by me or others; rather, Yehuda Bock at UCSD (and author of RTD) translates these files into a standard format that can be read by me. Recently, Tom Herring of MIT has modified the GAMIT software to process kinematically GPS data (www-gpsg.mit.edu/~simon/gtgk/tutorial/Lecture_13.pdf). At this time, the software, known as TRACK, does not process the observations in real-time. Consequently, the latency between the time of the observation and the time when a position estimate is available depends upon the frequency that the data are downloaded and the speed of actually processing the observations; there could be a delay of an hour or two before the a position estimates are available. Unlike RTD and 3DTracker, TRACK comes with GAMIT (which is distributed freely) and is currently operating in a test mode at the USGS office in Pasadena. The LC or ionosphere free observable is used in our TRACK solutions. JPL has a version of their GIPSY software called “Real-time GIPSY (RTG)” (gipsy.jpl.nasa.gov/orms/rtg), which, like TRACK, can process the pseudo-range data “off—line”. However, this software is not freely distributed. Instead, at least one company, NAVCOM, has teamed with JPL to integrate RTG with GPS receivers and telemetry that yields positions in realtime. Kristine Larson of University of Colorado has modified the original GIPSY to estimate positions kinematically. Again, like TRACK, the positions are estimated off—line. Much of her research is described in Larson et al. (2003), and Choi et al. (2004). For Long Valley, out of the 17 GPS sites, we monitor 5 baselines within the caldera at 5 second intervals relative to the Bald Mountain site at the edge of the caldera using 3DTracker. The baseline measurement using 3DTracker consists of determination of the 3 dimensional positions of the 5 remote points (GPS receivers) relative to a GPS site at Bald. A second, independent system collects and downloads once a day the 30-second data used for the 24-hour solutions for the 12 sites not monitored with 3DTracker. For the sites monitored with 3DTracker, the pseudo—range data are decimated to 30 seconds and converted to a form used for the 24-hour solutions. Both sets of telemetry employ 900 MHz spread spectrum radios which require line of site between all of the links. The telemetry for the 3DTracker sites require a dedicated radios at each end and intermediate repeaters as needed, while the telemetry required for the other sites use a single master radio, repeaters as needed, and a radio at each remote site. (The 5 sites being monitored with 3DTracker require 13 radios.) At Parkfield, RTD is used to measure the position changes all 12 baselines at 1 second intervals relative to a site, Pomm, adjacent to the San Andreas Fault. The complete RTD package (hardware and software) collects all of the data and determines the position of each site relative to Pomm. In addition, the system stores both the 1-second and 30-second pseudo-range data for later downloading which are ultimately used in the 24-hour solutions. To do this, each site has a 2.4 GHz radio and a telemetry buffer. The telemetry buffer holds 24-hours of data (in the event that the telemetry link is broken) and converts the RS232 data stream from the GPS receiver into a form compatible with an IP (Internet protocol) network connection. In contrast with the Long Valley system, the telemetry link for GPS at Parkfield consists of a single radio at each remote sites and a single radio at the central site. Although position estimates are produced within 1-second of the observations, these results are not immediately available because there is no high speed Internet connection to Parkfield. Instead, the data are stored on a removable disk and sent to UCSD once per month. Below, I describe the results of a simple experiment to examine the response of some of these systems to simulated deformation that could be an analogue of a tectonic or volcanic event. In many engineering applications, the system response is tested by inputting a step to the system and measuring the output of the system. Essentially, this is what I've done. The experiment described below moves the GPS antenna from its original position to a new position within 1 second; the software tracks the translation. These measurements were conducted in August 2004 with the RTD software at Parkfield, and twice in Long Valley. The first Long Valley test was conducted in September 2004 using 3DTracker on a single baseline. The test was repeated in September 2005 using 3DTracker on two baselines and, importantly, saving the RINEX files of the data so that the data could be replayed through 3DTracker using other options in the program and, using other software packages including TRACK. In addition, we observed a short-term event at the Three Sisters volcano in Oregon. This event was snow melt at a remote GPS site which gave an apparent 15 cm displacement in vertical in less than one-day. 3DTracker is used to monitor this site, and the event was captured with this software. In addition, with the assistance of others, I got additional estimates of position using other software packages; those results are presented. Finally, the precision of both 3DTracker and RTD are compared using a power spectrum. Those results would suggest that 3DTracker using appropriate Kalman filter coefficients would have better precision than RTD; instead, the lower noise level from 3DTracker is a result of smoothing from the Kalman filter. Given the results described in this report, high-rate GPS is certainly capable of accurately measuring displacements of 1 centimeter with a high degree of statistical confidence. Plotting these results show that the time of the displacement can be visually determined to that of the sampling interval of the data. However, especially with small amplitude signals, any of the software packages can yield erroneous deformation “signals” that are either due excess travel-time of the GPS carrier frequency from multipath or a limitation in the software. Thus, the time series of displacements must be viewed with caution and knowledge of external circumstances that might cause a change in position. The casual reader should continue with the next section describing the methods then jump to the last two sections for the discussion and conclusions. I have made some recommendations there.

Open-File Report↗

The U.S. Geological Survey Land Remote Sensing Program

In 2002, the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) launched a program to enhance the acquisition, preservation, and use of remotely sensed data for USGS science programs, as well as for those of cooperators and customers. Remotely sensed data are fundamental tools for studying the Earth's land surface, including coastal and near-shore environments. For many decades, the USGS has been a leader in providing remotely sensed data to the national and international communities. Acting on its historical topographic mapping mission, the USGS has archived and distributed aerial photographs of the United States for more than half a century. Since 1972, the USGS has acquired, processed, archived, and distributed Landsat and other satellite and airborne remotely sensed data products to users worldwide. Today, the USGS operates and manages the Landsats 5 and 7 missions and cooperates with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to define and implement future satellite missions that will continue and expand the collection of moderate-resolution remotely sensed data. In addition to being a provider of remotely sensed data, the USGS is a user of these data and related remote sensing technology. These data are used in natural resource evaluations for energy and minerals, coastal environmental surveys, assessments of natural hazards (earthquakes, volcanoes, and landslides), biological surveys and investigations, water resources status and trends analyses and studies, and geographic and cartographic applications, such as wildfire detection and tracking and as a source of information for The National Map. The program furthers these distinct but related roles by leading the USGS activities in providing remotely sensed data while advancing applications of such data for USGS programs and a wider user community.

Fact Sheet↗

Local, regional, and distal recordings of seismic unrest at Tau Island volcano, American Samoa

A seismic swarm near Taʻū Island, a volcanic island in eastern American Samoa, occurred from July to October 2022. The earliest unrest was noted as felt shaking reports in late July, and instrumentation varied in the beginning of the sequence as the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaiian Volcano Observatory responded by installing temporary and then permanent seismometers to monitor the activity. This network variability made it difficult to characterize the earliest seismicity and contextualize the entire sequence to discriminate between an underlying tectonic or volcanic source. Here, we present results analyzing hydroacoustic detections from an International Monitoring System hydrophone array near Wake Island, 4500 km northwest of Taʻū Island volcano. Using least-squares beamforming analysis, we create a catalog of T-wave detections from the direction of Taʻū Island to track the earthquakes, some of which were located by the USGS National EarthquakeInformation Center. Both the rate and hydroacoustic pressures, which we interpret as a proxy for earthquake size, gradually increased from late July to August, peaking on August 19 (rate) and August 24 (size), before decreasing to background in late September. Minutes-long bursts of tremor were also contemporaneously recorded as local network data became avail-able on August 20. Tremor activity continued throughout the rest of August, peaking on August 25, before ending in earlySeptember. These tremor bursts were band-limited to ~ 1–5 Hz and recorded as S waves at a regional station on the island of Upolu in Samoa, 250 km to the west of Taʻū Island. Our results do not constrain the tremor locations, but comparisons of earthquake and tremor reduced displacements recorded locally and regionally suggest a deeper tremor source. We interpret the increase in earthquake size and rate, together with the occurrence, characteristics, and relative depth of the tremor to be the result of magmatic activity beneath Taʻū Island volcano.

American Samoa, Taʻū Island↗

Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

Founded in 1912 at the edge of the caldera of Kīlauea Volcano, HVO was the vision of Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., a geologist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, whose studies of natural disasters around the world had convinced him that systematic, continuous observations of seismic and volcanic activity were needed to better understand—and potentially predict—earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Jaggar summarized the aim of HVO by stating that “the work should be humanitarian” and have the goals of developing “prediction and methods of protecting life and property on the basis of sound scientific achievement.” These goals align well with those of the USGS, whose mission is to serve the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage natural resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life. “Characteristics of Hawaiian Volcanoes” establishes a benchmark for the current understanding of volcanism in Hawai‘i, and the articles herein build upon the elegant and pioneering work of Jaggar and many other USGS and academic scientists. Each chapter synthesizes the lessons learned about a specific aspect of volcanism in Hawai‘i, based largely on continuous observation of eruptive activity (like that occurring now at Kīlauea Volcano) and on systematic research into volcanic and earthquake processes during HVO’s first 100 years. Researchers and students interested in basaltic volcanism should find the volume to be a valuable starting point for future investigations of Hawaiian volcanoes and an important reference for decades to come, as well as an informative and entertaining read.

Hawaii↗

Using a process-based model of pre-eruptive seismic patterns to forecast evolving eruptive styles at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia

Most volcanoes worldwide are not monitored in real-time; for those that are, patterns of pre-eruptive earthquakes coupled with conceptual models of magma ascent enable short-term forecasting of eruption onset. Basic event locations, characterization of background seismicity, and recognition of changes in earthquake types and energy release are most important to successful eruption forecasting. During renewed activity at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia, this approach was used by the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazards Mitigation (CVGHM) and the USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program to forecast eruption onset, identify changes in eruptive styles and raise or lower alert levels and extend or contract evacuation zones. After > 400 years of quiescence, Sinabung began erupting in August 2010. The volcano was unmonitored at the onset of these eruptions, which were phreatic, but soon after a monitoring network was installed by CVGHM. Increasing swarms of high-frequency volcano tectonic (VT) earthquakes were used to forecast continuing phreatic eruptions. Volcanic activity decreased in mid-September 2010, while additional intrusions at depth (inferred from continued distal VT swarms) continued through September 2013, when explosive phreatic eruptions recurred. Explosive eruptions were forecast based on increases in real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) and VT seismicity. Seismicity changed markedly in late November and early December 2013 with the occurrence of deep earthquakes and an overall transition from low-frequency (LF) dominated and irregular (in time and magnitude) earthquakes to more regular LF and hybrid seismicity – a transition that accompanied the continued rise, eventual emergence and growth of a lava dome in the summit crater. This lava dome was first observed on 18 December. In late December 2013 to early January 2014, the eruptive style changed again as additional ascending magma deformed the summit and the dome grew beyond the capacity of the summit crater, resulting in the en masse collapse of the lava dome (2 Mm3) on 11 January and the largest pyroclastic flow to date. The collapse was forecast on the basis of a several order of magnitude increase in RSAM, continued strong distal VT seismicity, an increase in proximal seismicity, and large-scale observed deformation of the summit area. Similarly, a later collapse of a second summit lava dome on 1 February 2014 was forecast on the basis of increased distal seismicity. Here, we demonstrate how a process-based volcano seismicity model was used in combination with real-time data to forecast the time and magnitude of eruptions, as well as changes in eruption style.

Sinabung Volcano↗

Digital data for volcano hazards at Newberry Volcano, Oregon

Newberry volcano is a broad shield volcano located in central Oregon, the product of thousands of eruptions, beginning about 600,000 years ago. At least 25 vents on the flanks and summit have been active during the past 10,000 years. The most recent eruption 1,300 years ago produced the Big Obsidian Flow. Thus, the volcano's long history and recent activity indicate that Newberry will erupt in the future. Newberry Crater, a volcanic depression or caldera has been the focus of Newberry's volcanic activity for at least the past 10,000 years. Newberry National Volcanic Monument, which is managed by the U.S. Forest Service, includes the caldera and extends to the Deschutes River. Newberry volcano is quiet. Local earthquake activity (seismicity) has been trifling throughout historic time. Subterranean heat is still present, as indicated by hot springs in the caldera and high temperatures encountered during exploratory drilling for geothermal energy. The report USGS Open-File Report 97-513 (Sherrod and others, 1997) describes the kinds of hazardous geologic events that might occur in the future at Newberry volcano. A hazard-zonation map is included to show the areas that will most likely be affected by renewed eruptions. When Newberry volcano becomes restless, the eruptive scenarios described herein can inform planners, emergency response personnel, and citizens about the kinds and sizes of events to expect. The geographic information system (GIS) volcano hazard data layers used to produce the Newberry volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 97-513 are included in this data set. Scientists at the USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory created a GIS data layer to depict zones subject to the effects of an explosive pyroclastic eruption (tephra fallout, pyroclastic flows, and ballistics), lava flows, volcanic gasses, and lahars/floods in Paulina Creek. A separate GIS data layer depicts drill holes on the flanks of Newberry Volcano that were used to estimate the probability of coverage by future lava flows.

Open-File Report↗

Volcanic investigations in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, April to May 1994

A team of U.S. Geological Survey geologists, a seismologist, and technicians gathered new geologic, seismic, and deformation data in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Nine volcanic islands on the active East Mariana Ridge north of Saipan were examined between April 20 and May 3, 1994. In addition, a new radio-telemetry seismic station was installed on the island of Agrihan (also spelled Agrigan). This report describes our continuing efforts, that began in May 1981, to establish volcano monitors and to assess hazards in the CNMI. Our previous visits, from September 1990 to May 1992, are documented in Moore and others (1991, 1993). Regional seismicity of the Mariana Island region, as recorded by the USGS National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), included at least 324 events between January 1, 1991, and February 4, 1994. The largest event was a M 8.1 Guam earthquake on August 8, 1993, which caused extensive damage to that island and was felt on Saipan. Intermittent seismic activity continues to occur in the Anatahan-Sarigan, Guguan-Alamagan-Pagan, and PaganAgrihan-Asuncion areas. Mount Pagan volcano was actively erupting ash during our 11 days on the island of Pagan. We were able to document seismicity and ground deformation associated with this volcanic activity. None of the other subaerial volcanoes in the chain showed signs of eruptive activity during our visit, but an overflight in a fixed-wing aircraft by geologist Richard Moore and CNMI Lieutenant Governor Jesus Borja detected an apparent submarine eruption between Farallon de Pajaros (also known as Uracas or Uracus) and Maug. The only surveillance of the three uninhabited islands of Farallon de Pajaros, Maug, and Sarigan was by aerial reconnaissance. Geologists studied the other six islands in greater detail by field mapping and aerial surveillance. Electronic distance measurement (EDM) permanent-glass monitor lines were measured on Agrihan, Pagan, and Anatahan. The majority of line-length changes on Agrihan were insignificant (<16 mm). Mount Pagan's south EDM monitor was reestablished, and 1994 results, compared with 1983 measurements, show large changes associated with renewed volcanic activity. Contractions of 59 mm (stations INS to REF) and 157 mm (stations INS to MID) were measured on the south monitor. The southwest Pagan EDM monitor showed a 56 mm contraction for the same period (stations PAGAN 1 to RIDGE 2). Line-length change of this sense and magnitude usually indicates that inflation has occurred in the volcano. Measurements during the 1994 visit to Pagan Island showed no significant changes (for all measurements made during April-May 1994). Anatahan also showed changes as large as -50 mm, accumulated over a time span of approximately two years. Temperatures and pH values of hot spring waters on Agrihan, Pagan, and Anatahan and fumaroles on Agrihan and Anatahan were measured. The temperature data indicated no significant change in the state of these volcanoes since 1992. We collected warm spring water from Lagoonam Sanhalom (Inland Lake) near Mount Pagan. In addition, we started geologic mapping on Asuncion and Guguan, collected charcoal to date three eruptions of Mount Pagan, and collected rocks on Asuncion, Guguan, Pagan, and Alamagan for petrographic and chemical studies. We conclude that the low and infrequent shallow seismicity, lack of significant deformation, and low fumarole temperatures suggest that no eruption is likely soon on Agrihan and Alamagan. Anatahan's deformation pattern continues to behave in an erratic manner. Because f the lack of seismicity, it seems unlikely that an eruption of Anatahan will occur soon. The persistent volcanic tremor and significant EDM changes on Mount Pagan mean that small explosive eruptions will continue to occur.

Mariana Islands↗

New high resolution airborne geophysical surveys in Nevada And California for geothermal and mineral resource studies

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to acquire high-resolution airborne magnetic and radiometric data to support geologic and geophysical mapping and modeling that will assist geothermal and critical mineral studies. Coordinated with these efforts are programs supporting geologic mapping and airborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging) surveys that yield detailed surface topographic models of the terrain over the same regions spanned by the geophysical surveys. The collaboration leverages resources from the USGS and DOE to acquire large regional datasets that will provide fundamental data necessary to map surface and subsurface geology and structure to benefit mineral and resource program objectives of both agencies. Such regionally uniform datasets are important for geothermal research to assist in identifying geologically favorable settings and as invaluable inputs in predictive models targeting undiscovered resources that use knowledge-driven (e.g., play fairway analysis) or data-driven approaches (e.g., machine-learning methods) to reduce risk associated with resource exploration. These data will also serve a wide range of other related activities from hazard (earthquake, volcano, landslide, environmental) and resource (water, mineral, energy) studies, to mapping and land management. Surveys were conducted in two areas that were selected because they host substantial geothermal and mineral potential in California and Nevada. The data will aid several ongoing USGS and DOE projects aimed at characterizing geothermal and mineral systems, understanding the factors controlling their occurrence, and improving future national resource assessments. The first of these surveys (referred to as GeoDAWN) was collected over northern and western Nevada and eastern California and spans areas of major resource potential associated with the Walker Lane and western Great Basin. This includes Clayton Valley, which hosts substantial lithium brine and clay resources, and the Humboldt Mafic Complex, which constitutes a potentially important resource of critical minerals (including cobalt, rare earth elements, platinum group elements, iron, chromium, nickel, and copper). The second survey area (referred to as GeoFlight) is focused over the Salton Trough in southern California that contains some of the largest and hottest known hydrothermal systems in the world, as well as a substantial lithium brine resource that could potentially meet the nation’s lithium demand for electric vehicles. Data from both surveys will be made publicly available through USGS publications and online data repositories. Future efforts under this collaboration are presently being evaluated and may involve acquisition of other data sets such as airborne gravity, electromagnetic or hyperspectral data to address research targets.

Conference Paper↗