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Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota

Habitat suitability index models: Cutthroat trout

Cutthroat trout, Salmo clarki, are a polytypic species consisting of several geographically distinct forms with a broad distribution and a great amount of genetic diversity (Hickman 1978; Behnke 1979). Behnke (1979) recognized 13 extant subspecies: Coastal cutthroat (S. c. clarki) in coastal streams from Prince William Sound, Alaska to the Eel Rlver in California; mountain cutthroat (~. ~. alpestris) in upper Columbia and F~Dser River drainages of British Columbia; west slope cutthroat (S. c. lewisi) in the upper Columbia, Salmon, Clearwater, South Saskatchewan and upper Missouri drainages of Montana and Idaho; an undescribed subspecies in the Alvord basin, Oregon; Lahonton cutthroat (S. c ..henshawi), Pauite cutthroat (S. c. seleniris), and an undescribed- subspecies in the Humboldt River drafnage of the Lahontan basin of Nevada and California; Yellowstone cutthroat (S. c. bouvieri) in the Yellowstone drainage of Wyoming and Montana and the Snake River drainage of Wyoming, Idaho, and Nevada; an undescribed subspecies (fine spotted) in the upper Snake River, Wyoming; Bonneville cutthroat (S. c. utah) in the Bonneville basin in Utah, Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming; Colorado River cutthroat (~. ~. pleuriticus) in the Colorado River drainage in Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, and Colorado; greenback cutthroat (S. c. stomias) in the South Platte and Arkansas River systems; and Rio Grande cutthroat (~. ~. virginalis) in the Rio Grande River drainage of Colorado and New Mexico. Many of these 13 subspecies are included on Federal or State endangered or threatened species lists. Temperature and chemical preferences, migration, and other ecological and life history attributes vary among cutthroat subspecies (Behnke 1979). Differences in growth rate (Carlander 1969; Scott and Crossman 1973; Behnke 1979) and food preferences have also been reported (Trojnar and Behnke 1974) between some subspecies.

FWS/OBS

Identification and distribution of the Olympic Shrew (Eulipotyphla: Soricidae), Sorex rohweri Rausch et al., 2007 in Oregon and Washington, based on USNM specimens

Review of specimens of long-tailed shrews (Mammalia, Soricidae, Sorex ) from the northwestern United States in the National Museum of Natural History (USNM), Washington, DC, has revealed the presence of the Olympic Shrew, Sorex rohweri Rausch et al., 2007, in the Coastal Range west of the Willamette Valley in Oregon. This determination nearly doubles the documented distribution for this species and increases the species diversity of soricids in Oregon to eleven. Sorex rohweri is relatively uncommon, but it occurs in a variety of forest successional stages and even clear cuts, as long as there is nearby forest and trees are allowed to regenerate. All USNM specimens from Washington formerly identified as S. cinereus streatori Merriam, 1895 are instead referable to the Olympic Shrew. The distribution of S. c. streatori is thereby restricted to the Pacific coasts of British Columbia north of the lower Frasier River and south central Alaska. Our study highlights the importance of taking and preserving high-quality voucher specimens in a collection where they are readily available for re-study.

Oregon

Genetic diversity in Arctic-nesting geese: Implications for management and conservation

The North Pacific Rim harbors breeding populations of many unique wildlife resources, of which waterfowl are among the most abundant and taxonomically diverse. Arctic nesting geese in particular are wide-spread in distribution (Figure 1), and though only seasons residents, they have evolved many unique adaptations for breeding in northern latitudes. This diversity has been recognized and managed at many taxonomic and geographic levels (Figure 2). Populations are spatially structured on macro- and micro-geographic scales reflecting taxon-specific migratory tendencies, and breeding and winter site fidelity.

Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Na

A decade of insights into grassland ecosystem responses to global environmental change

Earth’s biodiversity and carbon uptake by plants, or primary productivity, are intricately interlinked, underlie many essential ecosystem processes, and depend on the interplay among environmental factors, many of which are being changed by human activities. While ecological theory generalizes across taxa and environments, most empirical tests of factors controlling diversity and productivity have been observational, single-site experiments, or meta-analyses, limiting our understanding of variation among site-level responses and tests of general mechanisms. A synthesis of results from ten years of a globally distributed, coordinated experiment, the Nutrient Network (NutNet), demonstrates that species diversity promotes ecosystem productivity and stability, and that nutrient supply and herbivory control diversity via changes in composition, including invasions of non-native species and extinction of native species. Distributed experimental networks are a powerful tool for tests and integration of multiple theories and for generating multivariate predictions about the effects of global changes on future ecosystems.

Nature Ecology & Evolution

Hydroclimatic regimes: a distributed water-balance framework for hydrologic assessment, classification, and management

Runoff-based indicators of terrestrial water availability are appropriate for humid regions, but have tended to limit our basic hydrologic understanding of drylands – the dry-subhumid, semiarid, and arid regions which presently cover nearly half of the global land surface. In response, we introduce an indicator framework that gives equal weight to humid and dryland regions, accounting fully for both vertical (precipitation + evapotranspiration) and horizontal (groundwater + surface-water) components of the hydrologic cycle in any given location – as well as fluxes into and out of landscape storage. We apply the framework to a diverse hydroclimatic region (the conterminous USA) using a distributed water-balance model consisting of 53 400 networked landscape hydrologic units. Our model simulations indicate that about 21% of the conterminous USA either generated no runoff or consumed runoff from upgradient sources on a mean-annual basis during the 20th century. Vertical fluxes exceeded horizontal fluxes across 76% of the conterminous area. Long-term-average total water availability (TWA) during the 20th century, defined here as the total influx to a landscape hydrologic unit from precipitation, groundwater, and surface water, varied spatially by about 400 000-fold, a range of variation ~100 times larger than that for mean-annual runoff across the same area. The framework includes but is not limited to classical, runoff-based approaches to water-resource assessment. It also incorporates and reinterprets the green- and blue-water perspective now gaining international acceptance. Implications of the new framework for several areas of contemporary hydrology are explored, and the data requirements of the approach are discussed in relation to the increasing availability of gridded global climate, land-surface, and hydrologic data sets.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Differential influences of local subpopulations on regional diversity and differentiation for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus )

The distribution of spatial genetic variation across a region can shape evolutionary dynamics and impact population persistence. Local population dynamics and among-population dispersal rates are strong drivers of this spatial genetic variation, yet for many species we lack a clear understanding of how these population processes interact in space to shape within-species genetic variation. Here, we used extensive genetic and demographic data from 10 subpopulations of greater sage-grouse to parameterize a simulated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) model and (i) test for regional differences in population density and dispersal rates for greater sage-grouse subpopulations in Wyoming, and (ii) quantify how these differences impact subpopulation regional influence on genetic variation. We found a close match between observed and simulated data under our parameterized model and strong variation in density and dispersal rates across Wyoming. Sensitivity analyses suggested that changes in dispersal (via landscape resistance) had a greater influence on regional differentiation, whereas changes in density had a greater influence on mean diversity across all subpopulations. Local subpopulations, however, varied in their regional influence on genetic variation. Decreases in the size and dispersal rates of central populations with low overall and net immigration (i.e. population sources) had the greatest negative impact on genetic variation. Overall, our results provide insight into the interactions among demography, dispersal and genetic variation and highlight the potential of ABC to disentangle the complexity of regional population dynamics and project the genetic impact of changing conditions.

Molecular Ecology

Postfire chaparral regeneration under mediterranean and non-mediterranean climates

This study compares postfire regeneration and diversity patterns in fire-prone chaparral shrublands from mediterranean (California) and non-mediterranean-type climates (Arizona). Vegetation sampling was conducted in tenth hectare plots with nested subplots for the first two years after fire. Floras in the two regions were compared with Jaccard's Index and importance of families and genera compared with dominance-diversity curves. Although there were 44 families in common between the two regions, the dominant families differed; Poaceae and Fabaceae in Arizona and Hydrophyllaceae and Rosaceae in California. Dominance diversity curves indicated in the first year a more equable distribution of families in Arizona than in California. Woody plants were much more dominant in the mediterranean climate and herbaceous plants more dominant in the bimodal rainfall climate. Species diversity was comparable in both regions at the lowest spatial scales but not at the tenth hectare scale. Due to the double growing season in the non-mediterranean region, the diversity for the first year comprised two different herbaceous floras in the fall and spring growing seasons. The Mediterranean climate in California, in contrast, had only a spring growing season and thus the total diversity for the first year was significantly greater in Arizona than in California for both annuals and herbaceous perennials. Chaparral in these two climate regimes share many dominant shrub species but the postfire communities are very different. Arizona chaparral has both a spring and fall growing season and these produce two very different postfire floras. When combined, the total annual diversity was substantially greater in Arizona chaparral.

Arizona, California

Hydrological information products for the Off-Project Water Program of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement

The Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) was developed by a diverse group of stakeholders, Federal and State resource management agencies, Tribal representatives, and interest groups to provide a comprehensive solution to ecological and water-supply issues in the Klamath Basin. The Off-Project Water Program (OPWP), one component of the KBRA, has as one of its purposes to permanently provide an additional 30,000 acre-feet of water per year on an average annual basis to Upper Klamath Lake through "voluntary retirement of water rights or water uses or other means as agreed to by the Klamath Tribes, to improve fisheries habitat and also provide for stability of irrigation water deliveries." The geographic area where the water rights could be retired encompasses approximately 1,900 square miles. The OPWP area is defined as including the Sprague River drainage, the Sycan River drainage downstream of Sycan Marsh, the Wood River drainage, and the Williamson River drainage from Kirk Reef at the southern end of Klamath Marsh downstream to the confluence with the Sprague River. Extensive, broad, flat, poorly drained uplands, valleys, and wetlands characterize much of the study area. Irrigation is almost entirely used for pasture. To assist parties involved with decisionmaking and implementation of the OPWP, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Klamath Tribes and other stakeholders, created five hydrological information products. These products include GIS digital maps and datasets containing spatial information on evapotranspiration, subirrigation indicators, water rights, subbasin streamflow statistics, and return-flow indicators. The evapotranspiration (ET) datasets were created under contract for this study by Evapotranspiration, Plus, LLC, of Twin Falls, Idaho. A high-resolution remote sensing technique known as Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution and Internalized Calibration (METRIC) was used to create estimates of the spatial distribution of ET. The METRIC technique uses thermal infrared Landsat imagery to quantify actual evapotranspiration at a 30-meter resolution that can be related to individual irrigated fields. Because evaporation uses heat energy, ground surfaces with large ET rates are left cooler as a result of ET than ground surfaces that have less ET. As a consequence, irrigated fields appear in the Landsat images as cooler than nonirrigated fields. Products produced from this study include total seasonal and total monthly (April-October) actual evapotranspiration maps for 2004 (a dry year) and 2006 (a wet year). Maps showing indicators of natural subirrigation were also provided by this study. "Subirrigation" as used here is the evapotranspiration of shallow groundwater by plants with roots that penetrate to or near the water table. Subirrigation often occurs at locations where the water table is at or above the plant rooting depth. Natural consumptive use by plants diminishes the benefit of retiring water rights in subirrigated areas. Some agricultural production may be possible, however, on subirrigated lands for which water rights are retired. Because of the difficulty in precisely mapping and quantifying subirrigation, this study presents several sources of spatially mapped data that can be used as indicators of higher subirrigation probability. These include the floodplain boundaries defined by stream geomorphology, water-table depth defined in Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) soil surveys, and soil rooting depth defined in NRCS soil surveys. The two water-rights mapping products created in the study were "points of diversion" (POD) and "place of use" (POU) for surface-water irrigation rights. To create these maps, all surface-water rights data, decrees, certificates, permits, and unadjudicated claims within the entire 1,900 square mile study area were aggregated into a common GIS geodatabase. Surface-water irrigation rights within a 5-mile buffer of the study area were then selected and identified. The POU area was then totaled by water right for primary and supplemental water rights. The maximum annual volume (acre-feet) allowed under each water right also was calculated using the POU area and duty (allowable annual irrigation application in feet). In cases where a water right has more than one designated POD, the total volume for the water right was equally distributed to each POD listed for the water right. Because of this, mapped distribution of diversion rates for some rights may differ from actual practice. Water-right information in the map products was from digital datasets obtained from the Oregon Water Resources Department and was, at the time acquired, the best available compilation of water-right information available. Because the completeness and accuracy of the water-right data could not be verified, users are encouraged to check directly with the Oregon Water Resources Department where specific information on individual rights or locations is essential. A dataset containing streamflow statistics for 72 subbasins in the study area was created for the study area. The statistics include annual flow durations (5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 95-percent exceedances) and 7-day, 10-year (7Q10) and 7-day, 2-year (7Q2) low flows, and were computed using regional regression equations based on measured streamflow records in the region. Daily streamflow records used were adjusted as needed for crop consumptive use; therefore the statistics represent streamflow under more natural conditions as though irrigation diversions did not exist. Statistics are provided for flow rates resulting from streamflow originating from within the entire drainage area upstream of the subbasin pour point (referring to the outlet of the contributing drainage basin). The statistics were computed for the purpose of providing decision makers with the ability to estimate streamflow that would be expected after water conservation techniques have been implemented or a water right has been retired. A final product from the study are datasets of indicators of the potential for subsurface return flow of irrigation water from agricultural areas to nearby streams. The datasets contain information on factors such as proximity to surface-water features, geomorphic floodplain characteristics, and depth to water. The digital data, metadata, and example illustrations for the datasets described in this report are available on-line from the USGS Water Resources National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) Node Website http://water.usgs.gov/lookup/getgislist or from the U.S. Government website DATA.gov at http://www.data.gov with links provided in a Microsoft® Excel® workbook in appendix A.

California;Oregon

Availability and distribution of base flow in lower Honokohau Stream, Island of Maui

Honokohau Stream is one of the few perennial streams in the Lahaina District of West Maui. Current Honokohau water-use practices often lead to conflicts among water users, which are most evident during periods of base flow. To better manage the resource, data are needed that describe the availability and distribution of base flow in lower Honokohau Stream and how base flow is affected by streamflow diversion and return-flow practices. Flow-duration discharges for percentiles ranging from 50 to 95 percent were estimated at 13 locations on lower Honokohau Stream using data from a variety of sources. These sources included (1) available U.S. Geological Survey discharge data, (2) published summaries of Maui Land & Pineapple Company, Inc. diversion and water development-tunnel data, (3) seepage run and low-flow partial-record discharge measurements made for this study, and (4) current (2003) water diversion and return-flow practices. These flow-duration estimates provide a detailed characterization of the distribution and availability of base flow in lower Honokohau Stream. Estimates of base-flow statistics indicate the significant effect of Honokohau Ditch diversions on flow in the stream. Eighty-six percent of the total flow upstream from the ditch is diverted from the stream. Immediately downstream from the diversion dam there is no flow in the stream 91.2 percent of the time, except for minor leakage through the dam. Flow releases at the Taro Gate, from Honokohau Ditch back into the stream, are inconsistent and were found to be less than the target release of 1.55 cubic feet per second on 9 of the 10 days on which measurements were made. Previous estimates of base-flow availability downstream from the Taro Gate release range from 2.32 to 4.6 cubic feet per second (1.5 to 3.0 million gallons per day). At the two principal sites where water is currently being diverted for agricultural use in the valley (MacDonald's and Chun's Dams), base flows of 2.32 cubic feet per second (1.5 million gallons per day) are available more than 95 percent of the time at MacDonald's Dam and 80 percent of the time at Chun's Dam. Base flows of 4.6 cubic feet per second (3.0 million gallons per day) are available 65 and 56 percent of the time, respectively. A base-flow water-accounting model was developed to estimate how flow-duration discharges for 13 sites on Honokohau Stream would change in response to a variety of flow release and diversion practices. A sample application of the model indicates that there is a 1 to 1 relation between changes in flow release rates at the Taro Gate and base flow upstream from MacDonald's Dam. At Chun's Dam the relation between Taro Gate releases and base flow varies with flow-duration percentiles. At the 95th and 60th percentiles, differences in base flow at Chun's Dam would equal about 50 and 90 percent of the change at the Taro Gate.

Hawaii

Threats, conservation strategies, and prognosis for suckers (Catostomidae) in North America: insights from regional case studies of a diverse family of non-game fishes

Catostomid fishes are a diverse family of 76+ freshwater species that are distributed across North America in many different habitats. This group of fish is facing a variety of impacts and conservation issues that are somewhat unique relative to more economically valuable and heavily managed fish species. Here, we present a brief series of case studies to highlight the threats such as migration barriers, flow regulation, environmental contamination, habitat degradation, exploitation and impacts from introduced (non-native) species that are facing catostomids in different regions. Collectively, the case studies reveal that individual species usually are not threatened by a single, isolated factor. Instead, species in general face numerous stressors that threaten multiple stages of their life history. Several factors have retarded sucker conservation including widespread inabilities of field workers to distinguish some species, lack of basic natural history and ecological knowledge of life history, and the misconception that suckers are tolerant of degraded conditions and are of little social or ecological value. Without a specific constituent group lobbying for conservation of non-game fishes, all such species, including members of the catostomid family, will continue to face serious risks because of neglect, ignorance, and misunderstanding. We suggest that conservation strategies should incorporate research and education/outreach components. Other conservation strategies that would be effective for protecting suckers include freshwater protected areas for critical habitat, restoration of degraded habitat, and design of catostomid-friendly fish bypass facilities. We believe that the plight of the catostomids is representative of the threats facing many other non-game freshwater fishes with diverse life-history strategies globally.

Biological Conservation

Nonlinear response of trout abundance to summer stream temperatures across a thermally diverse montane landscape

Stream temperature is a fundamental physical factor that affects the distribution and abundance of salmonids, but empirical inconsistencies exist regarding the nature of this relationship in wild populations. We sampled trout populations composed primarily of cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki but also including brown trout Salmo trutta and brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis at 102 reaches on 24 first- to fourth-order streams across a thermally diverse montane landscape. Curves fit to scatterplots of density and biomass versus mean July-August stream temperatures suggested nonlinear, dome-shaped responses. Peaks occurred near mean stream temperatures of 12??C; x-intercepts were near 3??C and 21??C. We conclude that inconsistencies in previously reported temperature-abundance relationships for wild trout populations may have resulted from sampling only a subset of the thermal environments occupied by a species. Researchers analyzing this relationship should be cognizant of the range of temperatures studied and the expected form of the relationship over that range.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

Beyond the mangroves: A global synthesis of tidal forested wetland types, drivers and future information opportunities

There is increasing awareness of the global diversity of tidal forested wetlands (TFWs) and their significance in the provision of ecosystem services. These ecosystems, including mangrove forests, tidal freshwater forested wetlands, supratidal forests and transitional forests together span multiple climatic zones, geomorphic settings, and inundation and salinity regimes. We utilise case studies across five continents to demonstrate the state of knowledge among TFWs. Intertidal mangroves are the best-defined of the TFWs thanks to decades of research on their geomorphology, hydrology and ecology across their broad distribution. Non-mangrove forest settings, however, demonstrate more diverse hydrological, biochemical and vegetation conditions. In many cases, non-mangrove forests are situated at upper intertidal or supratidal elevations, where surface waters and groundwater are subject to interactions between tides freshwater inputs. Salinity datasets show variations ranging from tidal freshwater forested wetlands and ‘low-salinity mangroves’ to mesohaline or marine salinities, often with high temporal variability. While the floristic composition of non-mangrove forests vary among biogeographic regions, locally dominant TFW species are commonly distributed beyond the tidal niche into non-tidal wetland and upland forests. This presents challenges for traditional remote sensing approaches to ecosystem mapping, which are mostly lacking for non-mangrove forests. Geomorphic approaches and developments in machine learning offer opportunities to address this.

Preprint

Museum genomics provide evidence for persistent genetic differentiation in a threatened seabird species in the Western Atlantic

Connectivity among wildlife populations facilitates exchange of genetic material between groups. Changes to historical connectivity patterns resulting from anthropogenic activities can therefore have negative consequences for genetic diversity, particularly for small or isolated populations. DNA obtained from museum specimens can enable direct comparison of temporal changes in connectivity among populations, which can aid in conservation planning and contribute to understanding of population declines. However, museum DNA can be degraded and only available in low quantities, rendering it challenging for use in population genomic analyses. Applications of genomic methodologies such as targeted sequencing address this issue by enabling capture of shared variable sites, increasing quantity and quality of recovered genomic information. We used targeted sequencing of Ultra-conserved Elements (UCEs) to evaluate potential changes in connectivity and genetic diversity of roseate terns ( Sterna dougallii ) with a breeding distribution in the Northwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean. Both populations experienced range contractions and population declines due to anthropogenic activity in the 20 th century, which has the potential to alter historical connectivity regimes. Instead, we found that the two populations were differentiated historically as well as contemporaneously, with little evidence of migration between them for either time period. We also found no evidence for temporal changes in genetic diversity, although these interpretations may have been limited due to sequencing artifacts caused by the degraded nature of the museum samples. Population structuring in migratory seabirds is typically reflective of low rates of divergence and high connectivity among geographically segregated subpopulations. Our contrasting results suggest the potential presence of ecological mechanisms driving population differentiation, and highlight the value of targeted sequencing on DNA derived from museum specimens to uncover long-term patterns of genetic differentiation in wildlife populations.

Integrative and Comparative Biology

Geographic distribution of feather δ34S in Europe

Geographic distribution models of environmentally stable isotopes (the so-called “isoscapes”) are widely employed in animal ecology, and wildlife forensics and conservation. However, the application of isoscapes is limited to elements and regions for which the spatial patterns have been estimated. Here, we focused on the ubiquitous yet less commonly used stable sulfur isotopes (δ 34 S). To predict the European δ 34 S isoscape, we used 242 feather samples from Eurasian Reed Warbler ( Acrocephalus scirpaceus ) formed at 69 European wetland sites. We quantified the relationships between sample δ 34 S and environmental covariates using a random forest regression model and applied the model to predict the geographic distribution of δ 34 S. We also quantified within-site variation in δ 34 S and complementarity with other isotopes on both individual and isoscape levels. The predicted feather δ 34 S isoscape shows only slight differences between the central and southern parts of Europe while the coastal regions were most enriched in 34 S. The most important covariates of δ 34 S were distance to coastline, surface elevation, and atmospheric concentrations of SO 2 gases. The absence of a systematic spatial pattern impedes the application of the δ 34 S isoscape, but high complementarity with other isoscapes advocates the combination of multiple isoscapes to increase the precision of animal tracing. Feather δ 34 S compositions showed considerable within-site variation with highest values in inland parts of Europe, likely attributed to wetland anaerobic conditions and redox sensitivity of sulfur. The complex European geography and topography as well as using δ 34 S samples from wetlands may contribute to the absence of a systematic spatial gradient of δ 34 S values in Europe. We thus encourage future studies to focus on the geographic distribution of δ 34 S using tissues from diverse taxa collected in various habitats over large land masses in the world (i.e., Africa, South America, or East Asia).

Ecosphere

Macroinvertebrate community responses to disturbance in a fragmented river with contrasting legacies of alteration

Flow is a critical factor determining the riverine ecosystem structure and function. Widespread hydrologic alteration, however, has impacted the ecological integrity of rivers in ways that are not well understood, including responses of biological communities to increasingly frequent and severe climatic disturbances. Our study compared the responses of invertebrate communities on woody debris to large flooding and extreme drought in two highly contrasting segments of an impaired low-gradient river. The upstream segment, which according to previous research has higher α -diversity and production of large-bodied and sensitive invertebrates, maintained higher flows and longitudinal connectivity throughout the 4-year study. Communities in this upper segment resembled one another among sites (lower spatial turnover) but experienced greater temporal shifts in composition associated with hydrological disturbances. Conversely, invertebrate communities in the highly altered downstream segment, which is impaired by reduced flow, sedimentation, and hypoxia, were composed of smaller-bodied and pollution-tolerant taxa with lower α -diversity. Unlike the upper segment, communities were patchily distributed among sites (higher spatial turnover), which made it more difficult to detect system-wide temporal variation in composition throughout the study. Our study underscores the benefit of including measures of connectivity and spatial heterogeneity when assessing the ecological integrity of lotic systems. Understanding the system-wide response to disturbances across longer time frames can help better predict and mitigate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem integrity in degraded rivers.

River Research and Applications

A proposal to conserve black-footed ferrets and the prairie dog ecosystem

Prairie dogs ( Cynomys spp.) have been poisoned throughout this century because of grazing competition with livestock. Recent evidence showed these early claims were exaggerated, but animal control was already entrenched in government policy. As a result, ongoing government subsidized poisoning has reduced prairie dogs to about 2% of their former distribution. The reduction of prairie dogs diminished species diversity in the arid grasslands of North America, including the potential extinction of the black-footed ferret ( Mustela nigripes ). Cost-benefit analysis revealed that poisoning costs more than any grazing benefits accrued. This analysis did not consider the long-term costs of reversing ecosystem degradation, the intangible value of biological diversity as a public benefit, or the depletion of biotic resources as a loss of actual or potential wealth. The government presently finances the poisoning policy and the preservation of endangered species like the black-footed ferret, two apparently conflicting programs. We, therefore, propose an integrated management plan that considers both interests. We propose that federal monies allocated to the poisoning program be converted into a rebate for ranchers who manage livestock while preserving the prairie dog community. This would redirect funds and personnel already allocated to prairie dog eradication to an incentive for ranchers who manage for livestock and wildlife. Livestock interests and grassland biotic diversity would both benefit.

Environmental Management

Identification of seasonal streamflow regimes and streamflow drivers for daily and peak flows in Alaska

Alaska is among northern high‐latitude regions where accelerated climate change is expected to impact streamflow properties, including seasonality and primary flow drivers. Evaluating changes to streamflow, including flood characteristics, across this large and diverse environment can be improved by identifying the distribution and influence of flow drivers. Using metrics of mean monthly streamflow data from 253 streamgages, seasonal flow regimes were clustered to guide identification of seasonal‐flow drivers and form hydrologic groups for identification of peak‐flow populations. Nine seasonally distinct subclasses described variability within three classes dominated by (mostly fall) rainfall, (spring) snowmelt, and (summer) high‐elevation melt. The most glacierized basins exclusively grouped into high‐elevation melt subclasses, and less glacierized basins sometimes exhibited seasonal patterns aligned with rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐dominated regimes. Peak‐flow populations varied by subclass from dominant rainfall or dominant snowmelt to mixed rainfall‐snowmelt or mixed rainfall, snowmelt, and high‐elevation melt. Within subclasses, rainfall generated higher mean peak flows (relative to mean annual flow) than snowmelt or high‐elevation melt. Seasonal flow regimes showed clear but complex associations with basin characteristics, primarily elevation and winter temperature, and with geographic location. These dependencies provided elevation‐based analogies for changes associated with warming and insights for seasonal flow regime prediction and hydrologic region delineation. These results provide a spatially comprehensive perspective on seasonal streamflow drivers across Alaska from historical data and serve as an important historical basis for analysis.

Alaska