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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources

USGS2020

An efficient Bayesian framework for updating PAGER loss estimates

We introduce a Bayesian framework for incorporating time-varying noisy reported data on damage and loss information to update near real-time loss estimates/alerts for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. Initial loss estimation by PAGER immediately following an earthquake includes several uncertainties. Historically, the PAGER’s alerting on fatality and economic losses has not incorporated location-specific reported data on physical damage or casualties for a given earthquake. The proposed framework provides the ability to include early reports on fatalities at any given time and improve the overall impact forecast for the earthquake. The reported data on fatalities or damage are generally incomplete and noisy, especially in the early hours of the disaster. To address these challenges, we develop a recursive Bayesian updating framework that takes into account the loss projection model and the measurement and model uncertainties. The framework is applied to loss data for three example earthquakes, and the results show that the proposed updating improves the loss estimates and alert level to the correct level within the first day of the earthquake.

Earthquake Spectra Journal↗

USGS2025

Lessons in business recovery following the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence, Türkiye informed by women entrepreneurs

On 6 February 2023, Southern Türkiye was hit by devastating earthquakes, directly affecting over 14 million people in 11 cities, causing more than 50,000 deaths and the destruction of more than 800,000 buildings. This article goes beyond the physical damage imposed by the catastrophe to discuss the effects of the earthquakes on the operations of women-owned businesses. The mixed-method study with entrepreneurs belonging to a women’s business association operating in a moderately disrupted part of the region explores their struggles and recovery expectations. Thirty-five questionnaires were analyzed to identify the reasons for business closure, challenges, and needs faced in the post-disaster period and their recovery strategies. In addition, 23 entrepreneurs participated in roundtable discussions to provide a broader context to their responses to survey topics as well as lessons learned. Across both the survey and roundtables, while many respondents reported minor physical damage to their building, they also experienced financial and personal challenges from disruption to equipment, infrastructure, services, supply chains, institutional decisions, employee well-being, and customer base. Many used their business resources and personal savings to assist employees and others in the community. The women entrepreneurs often felt their recovery needs were ignored by government and private relief organizations and encountered barriers to receiving assistance from public and private institutions. Organizing together as women in business, even informally, provided mutual support during the crisis and recovery periods and catalyzed their role in support of their communities. The results illuminate functional community recovery as a balance of recovery of built infrastructure functionality and recovery of the broader social and economic fabric of the community.

southern Turkey↗

USGS2018

Towards coordinated regional multi-satellite InSAR volcano observations: Results from the Latin America pilot project

Within Latin America, about 319 volcanoes have been active in the Holocene, but 202 of these volcanoes have no seismic, deformation or gas monitoring. Following the 2012 Santorini Report on satellite Earth Observation and Geohazards, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) developed a 4-year pilot project (2013-2017) to demonstrate how satellite observations can be used to monitor large numbers of volcanoes cost-effectively, particularly in areas with scarce instrumentation and/or difficult access. The pilot aims to improve disaster risk management (DRM) by working directly with the volcano observatories that are governmentally responsible for volcano monitoring as well as with the international space agencies (ESA, CSA, ASI, DLR, JAXA, NASA, CNES). The goal is to make sure that the most useful data are collected at each volcano following the guidelines of the Santorini report that observation frequency is related to volcano activity, and to communicate the results to the local institutions in a timely fashion. Here we highlight how coordinated multi-satellite observations have been used by volcano observatories to monitor volcanoes and respond to crises. Our primary tool is measurements of ground deformation made by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), which have been used in conjunction with other observations to determine the alert level at these volcanoes, served as an independent check on ground sensors, guided the deployment of ground instruments, and aided situational awareness. During this time period, we find 26 volcanoes deforming, including 18 of the 28 volcanoes that erupted - those eruptions without deformation were less than 2 on the VEI scale. Another 7 volcanoes were restless and the volcano observatories requested satellite observations, but no deformation was detected. We describe the lessons learned about the data products and information that are most needed by the volcano observatories in the different countries using information collected by questionnaires. We propose a practical strategy for regional to global satellite volcano monitoring for use by volcano observatories in Latin America and elsewhere to realize the vision of the Santorini report.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗

USGS2025

Mitigation of human cognitive bias in volcanic eruption forecasting

Modern operational eruption forecasting methods rely heavily on human judgment in the face of uncertainty and are thus susceptible to myriad cognitive biases and errors by the scientist-forecasters. Recent developments in the behavioral sciences have elucidated cognitive biases across a wide spectrum of human behaviors and found ways to mitigate them. These insights have led to significant gains in human forecast accuracy across a range of disciplines. However, such gains have yet to widely penetrate volcanic eruption forecasting efforts. In this study, we review recent progress in these fields as relevant to improving current eruption forecasting methods as practiced by volcano observatories worldwide. We group cognitive biases into 1) information and selection biases, 2) group effects and social-emotional biases, and 3) framing and decision biases and highlight the numerous places in which these biases may permeate eruption forecasts. We present a framework for improving group discussion and forecasting processes at volcano observatories, considering recent gains from behavioral sciences along with a mitigation checklist to effectively reduce bias in operational eruption forecasts. Finally, we present an updated forecasting methodology for use in our own group, the US Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, based on previous “multiple datasets” methods, that includes clear and deliberate efforts to minimize cognitive biases and thus improve eruption forecasting accuracy.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗

USGS2016

Special issue “The phreatic eruption of Mt. Ontake volcano in 2014”

Mt. Ontake volcano erupted at 11:52 on September 27, 2014, claiming the lives of at least 58 hikers. This eruption was the worst volcanic disaster in Japan since the 1926 phreatic eruption of Mt. Tokachidake claimed 144 lives (Table 1 ). The timing of the eruption contributed greatly to the heavy death toll: near midday, when many hikers were near the summit, and during a weekend of clear weather conditions following several rainy weekends. The importance of this timing is reflected by the fact that a somewhat larger eruption of Mt. Ontake in 1979 resulted in injuries but no deaths. In 2014, immediate precursors were detected with seismometers and tiltmeters about 10 min before the eruption, but the eruption started before a warning was issued.

Earth, Planets and Space↗

USGS2025

Special issue "Effects of surface geology on seismic motion (ESG): General state-of-research"

To understand and predict the behaviors of strong ground motions incurred during devastating earthquakes, studies focused on the “effects of surface geology (ESG) on seismic motions” (following tradition, herein contracted as: “ESG”) have progressed steadily in the last three decades. These ESG studies typically involve in situ measurements of the wavefield and commonly apply both analytical and computational approaches. Concurrently, improvements in ESG related research can be readily attributed to the proliferation of openly accessible strong motion data, as well as advances in computational power. Nevertheless, there remain significant shortfalls in our understanding of the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties associated with the ESG as demonstrated by phenomena from recent deadly earthquake-related site effects. Thus, investigations toward addressing these deficiencies should be underscored in future earthquake related disaster mitigation efforts. This special issue of Earth, Planets, and Space (EPS) is dedicated to the ongoing efforts by the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (IASPEI) and the International Association of Earthquake Engineering (IAEE) that champion activities promoting studies related to the ESG.

Earth, Planets and Space↗

USGS2025

Near real-time indicators of burn severity in the western U.S. from active fire tracking

Background Timely information on wildfire burn severity is critical to assess and mitigate potential post-fire impacts on soils, vegetation, and hillslope stability. Tracking individual fire spread and intensity using satellite active fire data provides a pathway to near real-time (NRT) information. Here, we generated a large database ( n = 2177) of wildfire events in the western United States (U.S.) between 2012 and 2021 using active fire detections from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite and the Fire Events Data Suite (FEDS) algorithm to track large fire growth every 12 h. We integrated fire tracking data with final fire perimeters and burn severity data from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) program to evaluate the relationship between burn severity and fire behavior metrics derived from the fire tracking approach, including the rate of fire spread and average fire radiative power (FRP) of fire detections for each 12-h growth increment. Results When stratified by vegetation type, FRP and rate of spread metrics were positively correlated with classified burn severity for each 12-h growth increment, highlighting the potential to rapidly identify areas of high and low severity burning. In forests, integrated measures of FRP over the fire lifetime captured persistent flaming and smoldering that compensated for initial differences between AM (01:30) and PM (13:30) fire detections. Predictive modeling of these relationships based on multiple fire behavior indicators and vegetation type from the LANDFIRE program yielded an accuracy of 78% for the separation of unburned/low and moderate/high burn severity classes. Conclusions These results demonstrate the ability to capture within-fire differences in burn severity using NRT indicators from fire tracking to assist with emergency management and disaster preparedness for post-fire hazards, such as landslides, debris flows, or changes in stream flow and water quality. As VIIRS data are available within minutes of each satellite overpass in the U.S., rapid estimates of burn severity based on fire tracking can be made days or weeks before a large wildfire is fully contained.

western United States↗

USGS2005

Loss estimates for a Puente Hills blind-thrust earthquake in Los Angeles, California

Based on OpenSHA and HAZUS-MH, we present loss estimates for an earthquake rupture on the recently identified Puente Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles. Given a range of possible magnitudes and ground motion models, and presuming a full fault rupture, we estimate the total economic loss to be between $82 and $252 billion. This range is not only considerably higher than a previous estimate of $69 billion, but also implies the event would be the costliest disaster in U.S. history. The analysis has also provided the following predictions: 3,000-18,000 fatalities, 142,000-735,000 displaced households, 42,000-211,000 in need of short-term public shelter, and 30,000-99,000 tons of debris generated. Finally, we show that the choice of ground motion model can be more influential than the earthquake magnitude, and that reducing this epistemic uncertainty (e.g., via model improvement and/or rejection) could reduce the uncertainty of the loss estimates by up to a factor of two. We note that a full Puente Hills fault rupture is a rare event (once every ???3,000 years), and that other seismic sources pose significant risk as well. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2013

Estimating economic losses from earthquakes using an empirical approach

We extended the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) empirical fatality estimation methodology proposed by Jaiswal et al. (2009) to rapidly estimate economic losses after significant earthquakes worldwide. The requisite model inputs are shaking intensity estimates made by the ShakeMap system, the spatial distribution of population available from the LandScan database, modern and historic country or sub-country population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, and economic loss data from Munich Re's historical earthquakes catalog. We developed a strategy to approximately scale GDP-based economic exposure for historical and recent earthquakes in order to estimate economic losses. The process consists of using a country-specific multiplicative factor to accommodate the disparity between economic exposure and the annual per capita GDP, and it has proven successful in hindcast-ing past losses. Although loss, population, shaking estimates, and economic data used in the calibration process are uncertain, approximate ranges of losses can be estimated for the primary purpose of gauging the overall scope of the disaster and coordinating response. The proposed methodology is both indirect and approximate and is thus best suited as a rapid loss estimation model for applications like the PAGER system.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2009

Animal species endangerment: The role of environmental pollution

Multiple factors contribute to the decline of species. Habitat destruction is the primary factor that threatens species. affecting 73 % of endangered species. The second major factor causing species decline is the introduction of nonnative species. affecting 68% of endangered species. Pollution and overharvesting were identified as impacting, respectively, 38 and 15% of endangered species. Other factors affecting species decline include hybridization, competition, disease, and other interspecific interactions. Once a species is reduced to a remnant of its former population size and distribution, its vulnerability to catastrophic pollution events increases, frequently exceeding or replacing the factors responsible for the initial decline. Small, isolated populations are particularly vulnerable to catastrophic loss by an acute event. such as a chemical spill or pesticide application. However, when it comes to surviving a single disaster, widespread subpopulations of a species are far more resilient and ensure genetic survival. Hypothesizing theoretical concerns of potential factors that could affect an endangered species could predispose the scientific and political communities to jeopardizing threats. The user of recovery plans as a data source must be aware of the bias within the data set. These data should be used with the caveat that the source of information in recovery plans is not always based on scientific research and rigorous data collection. Over 58% of the information identifying species threats is based on estimates or personal communication. while only 42% is based on peer reviewed literature, academic research. or government reports. Many recovery plans were written when a species was initially listed in the 1970s or 1980s. Politics, human disturbance, and habitat demand issues evolve over a 20- to 30-year period. leaving much of the threats facing endangered species outdated and inadequate. These data are most valuable when used to facilitate reviews of Section 7 consultations and environmental impact statements, review permit applications, conduct environmental risk assessments, prioritize research needs. and identify limiting factors affecting species health. These data are also useful in identifying potential threats to species' health. Without properly identifying threats to endangered species based on sound. scientific research. there is little hope to successfully recover an endangered species.

Book chapter↗

USGS2013

Linking geology and health sciences to assess childhood lead poisoning from artisanal gold mining in Nigeria

Background: In 2010, Médecins Sans Frontières discovered a lead poisoning outbreak linked to artisanal gold processing in northwestern Nigeria. The outbreak has killed approximately 400 young children and affected thousands more. Objectives: Our aim was to undertake an interdisciplinary geological- and health-science assessment to clarify lead sources and exposure pathways, identify additional toxicants of concern and populations at risk, and examine potential for similar lead poisoning globally. Methods: We applied diverse analytical methods to ore samples, soil and sweep samples from villages and family compounds, and plant foodstuff samples. Results: Natural weathering of lead-rich gold ores before mining formed abundant, highly gastric-bioaccessible lead carbonates. The same fingerprint of lead minerals found in all sample types confirms that ore processing caused extreme contamination, with up to 185,000 ppm lead in soils/sweep samples and up to 145 ppm lead in plant foodstuffs. Incidental ingestion of soils via hand-to-mouth transmission and of dusts cleared from the respiratory tract is the dominant exposure pathway. Consumption of water and foodstuffs contaminated by the processing is likely lesser, but these are still significant exposure pathways. Although young children suffered the most immediate and severe consequences, results indicate that older children, adult workers, pregnant women, and breastfed infants are also at risk for lead poisoning. Mercury, arsenic, manganese, antimony, and crystalline silica exposures pose additional health threats. Conclusions: Results inform ongoing efforts in Nigeria to assess lead contamination and poisoning, treat victims, mitigate exposures, and remediate contamination. Ore deposit geology, pre-mining weathering, and burgeoning artisanal mining may combine to cause similar lead poisoning disasters elsewhere globally.

Environmental Health Perspectives↗

USGS2019

Linking management planning for coastal wetlands to potential future wave attenuation under a range of relative sea-level rise scenarios

Understanding changes in wave attenuation by emergent vegetation as wetlands degrade or accrete over time is crucial for incorporation of wetlands into holistic coastal risk management. Linked SLAMM and XBeach models were used to investigate potential future changes in wave attenuation over a 50-year period in a degrading, subtropical wetland and a prograding, temperate wetland. These contrasting systems also have differing management contexts and were contrasted to demonstrate how the linked models can provide management-relevant insights. Morphological development of wetlands for different scenarios of sea-level rise and accretion was simulated with SLAMM and then coupled with different vegetation characteristics to predict the influence on future wave attenuation using XBeach. The geomorphological context, subsidence, and accretion resulted in large predicted reductions in the extent of vegetated land (e.g., wetland) and changes in wave height reduction potential across the wetland. These were exacerbated by increases in sea-level from +0.217 m to +0.386 m over a 50-year period, especially at the lowest accretion rates in the degrading wetland. Mangrove vegetation increased wave attenuation within the degrading, subtropical, saline wetland, while grazing reduced wave attenuation in the temperate, prograding wetland. Coastal management decisions and actions, related to coastal vegetation type and structure, have the potential to change future wave attenuation at a spatial scale relevant to coastal protection planning. Therefore, a coastal management approach that includes disaster risk reduction, biodiversity, and climate change, can be informed by coastal modeling tools, such as those demonstrated here for two contrasting case studies.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2003

The U.S. Geological Survey land remote sensing program

The U.S. Geological Survey has been a provider of remotely sensed information for decades. As the availability and use of satellite data has grown, USGS has placed increasing emphasis on expanding the knowledge about the science of remote sensing and on making remotely sensed data more accessible. USGS encourages widespread availability and distribution of these data and through its programs, encourages and enables a variety of research activities and the development of useful applications of the data. The science of remote sensing has great potential for assisting in the monitoring and assessment of the impacts of natural disasters, management and analysis of environmental, biological, energy, and mineral investigations, and supporting informed public policy decisions. By establishing the Land Remote Sensing Program (LRS) as a major unit of the USGS Geography Program, USGS has taken the next step to further increase support for the accessibility, understanding, and use of remotely sensed data. This article describes the LRS Program, its mission and objectives, and how the program has been structured to accomplish its goals.

Cartography and Geographic Information Science↗

USGS2004

The Global Invasive Species Information Network: What's in it for you?

A well-known article in BioScience — probably the most widely cited scientific study on invasive species in recent years—calculated the annual cost of invasive species in the United States alone at $138 billion per year (Pimentel et al. 2000). The total annual cost of invasive species to human societies worldwide can therefore be estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars, including the costs of control, detrimental effects on human health, and losses in agricultural production and ecosystem services. This enormous sum far exceeds the combined annual cost of all natural disasters (Munich Re Group 2004), making the problem of invasive species in both agricultural and natural ecosystems a high-priority issue. But there is hope for counteracting the invasive species challenge, and much of that hope stems from new strategies being developed for managing information about invasive species and their effects.

BioScience↗

USGS2002

What are parasitologists doing in the United States Geological Survey?

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) was formed in 1879 as the nation's primary natural science and information agency. The mission of the agency is to provide scientific information to a??describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life.a?? Prior to 1996, the USGS comprised 3 divisions or disciplines: geology, mapping, and water. Historically, the agency was most noted for cartographic products that were used widely by both government and private sector. With the inclusion of the National Biological Service into the USGS in 1996 as the Biological Resource Discipline (BRD), a living resources dimension was added to the earth sciences character of the USGS. With the addition of BRD, the bureau is able now to contribute both the physical and biological sciences to address the nation's resource management problems.

Comparative Parasitology↗

USGS2009

Differential energy radiation from two earthquakes in Japan with identical M w : The Kyushu 1996 and Tottori 2000 earthquakes

We examine two closely located earthquakes in Japan that had identical moment magnitudes M w but significantly different energy magnitudes M e . We use teleseismic data from the Global Seismograph Network and strong-motion data from the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention's K-Net to analyze the 19 October 1996 Kyushu earthquake (M w 6.7, M e 6.6) and the 6 October 2000 Tottori earthquake (M w 6.7, M e 7.4). To obtain regional estimates of radiated energy E S we apply a spectral technique to regional (<200 km) waveforms that are dominated by S and Lg waves. For the thrust-fault Kyushu earthquake, we estimate an average regional attenuation Q(f) 230f 0:65 . For the strike-slip Tottori earthquake, the average regional attenuation is Q(f) 180f 0:6 . These attenuation functions are similar to those derived from studies of both California and Japan earthquakes. The regional estimate of E S for the Kyushu earthquake, 3:8 ?? 10 14 J, is significantly smaller than that for the Tottori earthquake, E S 1:3 ?? 10 15 J. These estimates correspond well with the teleseismic estimates of 3:9 ?? 10 14 J and 1:8 ?? 10 15 J, respectively. The apparent stress (T a = ??E s /M 0 with ?? equal to rigidity) for the Kyushu earthquake is 4 times smaller than the apparent stress for the Tottori earthquake. In terms of the fault maturity model, the significantly greater release of energy by the strike-slip Tottori earthquake can be related to strong deformation in an immature intraplate setting. The relatively lower energy release of the thrust-fault Kyushu earthquake can be related to rupture on mature faults at a subduction environment. The consistence between teleseismic and regional estimates of E S is particularly significant as teleseismic data for computing E S are routinely available for all large earthquakes whereas often there are no near-field data.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Rapid characterization of the 2015 M w 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence and its seismotectonic context

Earthquake response and related information products are important for placing recent seismic events into context and particularly for understanding the impact earthquakes can have on the regional community and its infrastructure. These tools are even more useful if they are available quickly, ahead of detailed information from the areas affected by such earthquakes. Here we provide an overview of the response activities and related information products generated and provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center in association with the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. This group monitors global earthquakes 24  hrs/day and 7  days/week to provide rapid information on the location and size of recent events and to characterize the source properties, tectonic setting, and potential fatalities and economic losses associated with significant earthquakes. We present the timeline over which these products became available, discuss what they tell us about the seismotectonics of the Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks, and examine how their information is used today, and might be used in the future, to help mitigate the impact of such natural disasters.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2020

Capturing, preserving and digitizing legacy seismic data from the Montserrat Volcano Observatory analog seismic network, July 1995 – December 2004

An eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV) on the eastern Caribbean island of Montserrat began on 18 July 1995 and continued until February 2010. Within nine days of the eruption onset, an existing four‐station analog seismic network (ASN) was expanded to 10 sites. Telemetered data from this network were recorded, processed, and archived locally using a system developed by scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP). In October 1996, a digital seismic network (DSN) was deployed with the ability to capture larger amplitude signals across a broader frequency range. These two networks operated in parallel until December 2004, with separate telemetry and acquisition systems (analysis systems were merged in March 2001). Although the DSN provided better quality data for research, the ASN featured superior real‐time monitoring tools and captured valuable data including the only seismic data from the first 15 months of the eruption. These successes of the ASN have been rather overlooked. This article documents the evolution of the ASN, the VDAP system, the original data captured, and the recovery and conversion of more than 230,000 seismic events from legacy SUDS, Hypo71, and Seislog formats into Seisan database with waveform data in miniSEED format. No digital catalog existed for these events, but students at the University of South Florida have classified two-thirds of the 40,000 events that were captured between July 1995 and October 1996. Locations and magnitudes were recovered for ~10,000 of these events. Real-time seismic amplitude measurement, seismic spectral amplitude measurement, and tiltmeter data were also captured. The result is that the ASN seismic dataset is now more discoverable, accessible, and reusable, in accordance with FAIR data principles. These efforts could catalyze new research on the 1995–2010 SHV eruption. Furthermore, many observatories have data in these same legacy data formats and might benefit from procedures and codes documented here.

Soufrière Hills Volcano↗