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Using geologic mapping to understand temporal and spatial relations of closely clustered to concurrent latest Holocene surface ruptures on two intersecting faults, south-central Mojave Desert, California

The Pinto Mountain Fault Zone (PMFZ) marks a major structural boundary between east-oriented sinistral faults of the eastern Transverse Ranges (to the south) and northwest-oriented dextral faults of the south-central Mojave Desert (to the north). These structural fault systems comprise sinistral and dextral deformational domains of the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ) that intersect one another in the Copper Mountain and Twentynine Palms areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting detailed geologic mapping and geochronologic investigations designed to clarify geometric, kinematic, and temporal relations among the two domains, that are focused on the central portion of the left-lateral PMFZ near its intersection with the right-lateral Copper Mountain Fault (CMF) and Mesquite Lake Fault Zone (MLFZ).

California

Relationship of basin structure and bedrock lithology to faulting in the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake region, California, from gravity and aeromagnetic data

We investigate patterns of cumulative offsets on the faults that ruptured in 2019 and along the Garlock Fault in the Ridgecrest region, California using recently published gravity and aeromagnetic data. We also examine the relationship of basin structure and bedrock structure to the 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake ruptures (Fig. 1A), which were primarily along a dextral northwest-striking fault system, and along a sinistral northeast-striking fault, which ruptured hours earlier with a M6.4 event.

California

Final project peport for “Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to present – Phase 2: Focus on tamarisk vegetation”

Riparian ecosystems play a critical role in supporting wildlife habitats, maintaining water quality, and sustaining ecological resilience in arid landscapes. In the Upper Gila River level-4 Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-4; Identification Number – 1504) watershed of Arizona and New Mexico, and across areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe of the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter, Tribe/Tribal – entity; or Reservation - place), riparian ecosystems have been substantially altered by the widespread expansion of tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.), an invasive and non-native riparian species. Tamarisk has high water use and increased flammability, making it a growing concern as droughts intensify across the southwestern United States (U.S.). Recent research indicates that tamarisk is increasingly stressed under prolonged drought conditions, which can elevate wildfire risk and further degrade riparian habitat. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Geographic Science Center, in collaboration with the Tribe, developed remote sensing–based tools to map riparian vegetation composition and monitor vegetation condition over time. These tools enable accurate identification of tamarisk extent, detection of vegetation stress, and comparison with native species such as cottonwood and willow. This information directly supports restoration and management actions, including targeted tamarisk removal, protection of endangered species habitat, and prioritization of areas for native vegetation recovery. The tools also provide insight into how riparian vegetation responds to changing climate and hydrologic conditions, strengthening long-term planning for riparian forest management. Findings from this work demonstrate that riparian vegetation responses vary across river systems, indicating differences in plant composition and hydro-climatic conditions. Tamarisk on both the Gila and San Carlos Rivers generally exhibit greater declines in greenness in response to higher temperature as well as lower precipitation and river flow, while cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly sensitive to changes in discharge along the San Carlos River and respond more directly to both high and low flows, with more moderate responses to precipitation and temperature. By providing actionable, science-based information, this research supports climate adaptation planning, wildfire risk reduction, and improved riparian ecosystem health, with benefits that extend beyond the Reservation to regional water and wildlife conservation efforts.

Arizona, New Mexico

Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation

As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area, the Engineering and Risk Project (ERP) of the Geologic Hazards Science Center conducts civil engineering research to extend natural hazards science to risk assessments. The ERP includes predominantly, but not exclusively, staff funded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. A major focus of the ERP is to deliver actionable information to decisionmakers that helps promote the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The report discusses briefly the ERP’s evolution and scope, its organization structure, describes key products and deliverables, their efforts to engage with external partners, and its strategy and vision in conducting range of engineering and risk research. The research topics outlined in this report, as developed by the ERP, may be used to facilitate project planning activities during the next 10 years and serve as a longer-term planning resource for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and Geologic Hazards Science Center.

Circular

Wildfire, extreme precipitation and debris flows, oh my! Channel response to compounding disturbances in a mountain stream in the Upper Colorado Basin, USA

Compounding changes in climate and human activities stand to increase sediment input to rivers in many landscapes, including via discrete perturbations such as post-fire debris flows. Because sediment supply is a dominant control on river morphology, understanding mountain river responses to sediment regime perturbations is critical to predicting and addressing downstream effects to infrastructure, water security and aquatic habitat. A growing body of literature explores the causes, likelihood, size and composition of post-fire debris flows, but the channel response to these disturbances remains poorly studied. This study used repeat field surveys, time-lapse photographs and pre- and post-disturbance remote sensing datasets to document and analyse space- and time-varying channel response to post-fire debris flows along a steep mountain stream in the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA. Specifically, we evaluated channel morphology and bed composition changes, correlations between channel changes and valley and channel attributes, and the relative importance of spring snowmelt versus summer monsoon events. Several cross-sectional channel change types were observed from lidar a month after post-fire debris-flow events, including channelized and braided incision into deposits, incision into the pre-fire channel bed, bank erosion and no change. Channel changes were most correlated with pre-fire channel width, valley width and unit stream power, and these relationships could be tested in other burned locations to evaluate their transferability. Repeat channel surveys before and after snowmelt indicate rapid recovery and channel narrowing following major sediment disturbances, although sediment deposits remained in the channel margins. Together, these results highlight the importance of field and remote sensing-based channel surveys to improve understanding of, and potential to predict, mountain channel response to compounding climate disturbances.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

StreamStats—A quarter century of delivering web-based geospatial and hydrologic information to the public, and lessons learned

StreamStats is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) web application that provides streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability peak flow, the mean flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, to the public through a map-based user interface. These statistics are used in many ways, such as in the design of roads, bridges, and other structures; in delineation of floodplains for land-use zoning and setting of insurance rates; for regulatory purposes, such as the permitting of wastewater discharges; and for hydrologic and climate change studies. StreamStats was first developed for Massachusetts and released in 2001. The application provided users with the ability to obtain streamflow statistics computed from data collected at USGS streamgages and to obtain estimates of streamflow statistics for user-selected ungaged sites. Massachusetts StreamStats used geographic information system software and digital mapping to compute drainage-basin characteristics, which were then used in statistical models to estimate streamflow statistics for the user-selected sites. The statistical models were in the form of equations that were developed through a process known as regression analysis. StreamStats was the first known web application with the ability to do interactive geoprocessing. The utility of Massachusetts StreamStats was instantly apparent, leading the USGS to develop a version of StreamStats that could be implemented nationally. USGS State offices normally were required to develop custom regression equations and prepare local digital mapping data needed for implementing StreamStats for their States. Funding needed to complete this work usually was provided through cooperative agreements between the USGS and State agencies. In 2004, Idaho became the first to be released in the national version of StreamStats. By 2023, 44 States were fully implemented and six were undergoing implementation. StreamStats has undergone many modifications over the years to keep up with changes to the underlying software and to add functionality. Customized functionality and separate linked StreamStats applications were developed for several States. Meeting the high demand for additions and improvements to StreamStats while also adhering to budgetary constraints has, at times, been challenging. The StreamStats development team has identified numerous additional improvements that could be made to provide better performance and more functionality. The lessons learned from the experience of building and operating StreamStats for nearly 25 years could be relevant to others interested in pursuing efforts of a similar scale.

Circular

Using a time-of-travel sampling approach to quantify per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) stream loading and source inputs in a mixed-source, urban catchment

Understanding per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) mass distribution in surface and groundwater systems can support source prioritization, load reduction, and water management. Thirteen sites within an urban catchment were sampled utilizing a time-of-travel sampling approach to minimize the influence of subdaily fluctuations in mass from PFAS point sources and to quantify PFAS and ancillary chemical loads from various PFAS sources. A larger increase in perfluoroalkyl sulfonate (PFSA) loads (8 to 11 μg/s, up to 618%) than in perfluoroalkyl carboxylate (PFCA) loads (no change to 3.4 μg/s, up to 122%) was observed at sites below tributaries influenced by military bases with known groundwater discharge. Point discharges from two sewage treatment plants (STPs) resulted in increases in PFCA and PFSA loads that were similar (6 and 10 μg/s respectively) below the first STP and greater for PFCA compared to PFSA loads (23 and 13 μg/s respectively) below the second STP. Overall, percent increases in total PFAS load ranged from 20 to 277% for military base inputs and 44 to 77% for STP inputs. A focus catchment that represents only 14% (76.9 km 2 ) of the drainage area at the most downstream site (544 km 2 ) accounted for about 70% of PFSA and 40% of PFCA loads observed at the most downstream site. Results show that by using a time-of-travel sampling approach in mixed, urban settings with several PFAS sources, it is possible to quantify stream loads from individual PFAS sources, thereby improving source attribution and providing actionable data for water-resource managers.

ACS ES&T Water

Groundwater tracing used to delineate recharge areas and map karst groundwater pathways for subterranean streams at Oregon Caves National Monument and Preserve

Oregon Caves National Monument and Preserve in southwestern Oregon is a 4,554-​acre area managed by the National Park Service that is home to several cave systems, including Oregon Caves, which is the longest cave in Oregon, with 3.03 miles of mapped passages. Because of the interconnected nature of karst hydrologic systems, it is critical to understand the areas that can influence water quality and quantity in karst environments. Toward this goal, dye tracing was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2021 to 2024 to better understand the pathways that karst groundwater follows at Oregon Caves National Monument and Preserve and to delineate recharge areas for two caves, Oregon Caves and Cave Next Door. During the project, eight dye injections were conducted, delineating a 0.51-​square-​mile recharge area for Oregon Caves and a 0.69-​square-​mile recharge area for Cave Next Door. Additionally, the study helped to identify three resurgences associated with Oregon Caves that were previously unknown and showed that the recharge areas for the two caves were distinct from one another. The dye traces also illuminated some unique recharge characteristics of the karst at Oregon Caves, including a high variance in karst groundwater velocities, retention within the karst aquifers, and a significant diffuse-​flow component.

Oregon

Geochemistry and thermometry of magnetite veins and replacements in iron ore deposits from the Iron Springs district, SW Utah, USA: Relation to magmatic and hydrothermal processes

Ore-genesis, texture, chemical compositions, and thermometry of magnetite were used to better evaluate the origins of iron ore deposits across the Iron Spring district, Utah. Trace element compositions, determined by LA-ICP-MS, were used to calculate temperatures based on X Mg numbers and characterize the trace element signatures of magmatic and hydrothermal magnetite. Magnetite occurs as coarser crystalline grains within veins, breccias, and cavities along with finer crystalline replacements. Magnetite is most commonly intergrown with apatite, phlogopite, and carbonate in veins, breccias, and cavities where apatite occurs separately from the other gangue minerals. The results using empirical trace element discrimination diagrams generally suggest that the magnetite is overall of hydrothermal origin regardless of textural variations or field relationships. The X Mg numbers of the magnetite in the magnetite-apatite ores, however, are suggestive of high temperature magmatic conditions; whereas those of vein, breccia, and replacement occurrences containing other gangue minerals are suggestive of lower temperature hydrothermal processes.

Utah

Aeromagnetic and magnetotelluric imaging of west-central Idaho and the Stibnite-Yellow Pine mining district: A regional to district perspective

Aeromagnetic and magnetotelluric (MT) data are used to better understand the geology and mineral resources near the Stibnite-Yellow Pine mining district in central Idaho. The reduced-to-pole (RTP) transformation of regional-scale aeromagnetic data shows that allochthonous island-arc rocks west of the Salmon River suture are significantly more magnetic than the Laurentian continental rocks east of the suture and that the granitoids of the Idaho batholith have moderate to low magnetization in both early, metaluminous, and late, peraluminous phases. Application of tilt derivative to aeromagnetic data highlights major crustal-scale structures. The 5-km upward continued magnetic data indicate island-arc rocks have deep magnetic sources. The 110-km-long MT profile images resistivity structure to depths around 30 km. At shallow depths, resistivity corresponds to mapped geologic units, with moderate resistivities underlying volcanic and roof-pendant metasedimentary rocks and moderate to high resistivities occurring beneath the Idaho batholith. Crustal-scale moderate resistivities beneath the suture image the results of tectonomagmatic processes that accompanied suturing and translating allochthonous terranes. Low resistivity values beneath and fringing the batholith are derived from metasedimentary rocks that may have served as a melt source and reductant during melt generation and provided metals during later ore formation. In the Stibnite-Yellow Pine mining district, a high-resolution aeromagnetic compilation is shown to correlate with mapped lithologies and mineral deposit-related structures. The RTP transform distinguishes magnetic and nonmagnetic granitoid phases of the Idaho batholith. The tilt derivative highlights metasedimentary rocks, some of which are favorable ore hosts. The Meadow Creek fault hosts the Stibnite and Hangar Flats deposits and is imaged as a magnetic low due to hydrothermal alteration. Reconstructions of magnetic anomaly offsets and orebodies indicate around 3 km of post-95 Ma dextral separation, with some or all of the offset inferred to postdate the main Au mineralization episode (61–66 Ma).

Idaho

Review and synthesis of the applications of machine learning to coalbed methane recovery

Over the last 30 years, a substantial literature has evolved on the use of machine learning (ML) to assess, predict, and improve the efficiency of coalbed methane (CBM) recovery. In the United States, the production of CBM declined as shale gas production matured, but CBM continues to be an important energy resource in other parts of the world. ML applications that have the potential to improve CBM reservoir management and production forecasts, and to increase exploration and operational efficiency, are still of significant interest. The integration of geostatistical techniques into the CBM ML applications has been largely absent but represents an opportunity for improvement. The literature demonstrates the widespread interest in, and applicability of, ML algorithms applied to CBM problems, and that they continue to result in improvements in predictive performance. However, (1) much of the research is more academic than operational, (2) many results are based on simulations, or small or proprietary datasets, (3) ML performance information can be inconsistent and sometimes entirely omitted, (4) most methodologies are unique to the specific CBM situation and likely not generalizable, (5) no standard data repositories are available to directly compare the performance of competing algorithms, and (6) the spatial component is often omitted. Finally, relatively new ML protocols involving causality analysis and reinforced learning, as well as hybrid workflows combining both supervised and unsupervised learning, are anticipated to dominate the future investigations. Integration of geostatistical and geospatial analysis with ML should enhance performance.

Book chapter

Modeling seawater intrusion along the Alabama coastline using physical and machine learning models to evaluate the effects of multiscale natural and anthropogenic stresses

Seawater intrusion threatens groundwater resources in coastal regions, including southern Baldwin County, Alabama, where the freshwater-saltwater interface dynamics remain poorly understood. To address this gap, this study uses combined physics-based and machine-learning models to quantify seawater intrusion caused by natural (storm surges) and anthropogenic (human activities) perturbations. The long short-term memory network and wavelet analysis were used to assess vertical aquifer vulnerabilities, revealing that the shallow part of the Coastal lowlands aquifer system (CL1) in the southern Baldwin County region is more susceptible to sea level rise and groundwater extraction than deeper aquifers. Based on these findings, a cross-sectional numerical model (physics approach) for the CL1 aquifer was developed to evaluate tidal and storm surge effects, using Tropical Storm Claudette (June 2021) as a case study. Results showed that tidal fluctuations had a minimal impact on the saltwater-freshwater interface location, whereas storm surges caused substantial inland movement, with effects lasting for nine months. The steady-state version of the three-dimensional (3D) physical model predicted seawater intrusion across the entire area, and convolutional neural network-based modeling further validated the model results. The 3D physical model was also applied to a smaller area to assess human impact on the saltwater interface due to two groundwater pumping scenarios (± 50% of the baseline pumping rate). Results revealed that a 50% increase in groundwater withdrawals caused seawater to advance ~ 320 m inland, whereas a 50% reduction led to a ~ 270-meter retreat. This study highlights the vulnerability of Alabama’s shallow coastal aquifers to seawater intrusion due to storm surges and human activities, and demonstrates that combining physics-based models with machine learning approaches can improve groundwater predictions, though its accuracy depends on the availability of site-specific data.

Alabama

Updating and recalibrating the integrated Santa Rosa Plain Hydrologic Model to assess stream depletion and to simulate future climate and management scenarios in Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, California

The Santa Rosa Plain Hydrologic Model (SRPHM) was developed and published in 2014 through a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Sonoma Water to analyze the hydrologic system in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, help meet the increasing demand for fresh water, and prepare for future uncertainties in water resources. The original model simulated hydrological conditions and water use from water years 1975 to 2010. Recently (2023), the USGS, in cooperation with Sonoma Water and the California State Water Resources Control Board, updated the SRPHM model to extend its simulation period to the end of the 2018 calendar year, incorporate new estimates of rural and agricultural water use, and use efficient input format for climate variables. The updated model was recalibrated, and evaluation of the new model calibration is included in this report. This report presents the results of comparing the hydraulic heads, streamflow, and groundwater budget simulated by the updated model with those generated by the original model and observed data. The main difference in the simulated budget between the original and updated SRPHM is the estimates of agricultural pumping, rural domestic pumping, and return flow generated from rural water use that was not simulated in the original model. The revised agricultural pumping is simulated using the agricultural package, which constrains pumping to available groundwater. The use of the agricultural package leads to a more realistic estimation of agricultural water use, with revised agricultural pumping being one-third less than that in the original model. The revised rural pumping is about half of the pumping in the original model because of using detailed parcel data to estimate population density in rural areas instead of coarse census tracts. Overall, average total inflows for water years 2006–10 simulated by the updated model were about 2 percent less than the original model, and the average total updated outflows were nearly 5 percent less than the original model. The updated model was then used to generate stream depletion maps, simulate climate change scenarios during 2019–99, and simulate water rights allocation using the Model for Decision Support in Integrated River Basin Management (MODSIM). The results from simulating eight future climate scenarios indicated either an increase in groundwater storage or no significant change in the next 80 years, along with an increase in recharge, an increase in actual evapotranspiration in six out of eight climate projections, and an increase in surface runoff. The increases in the simulated future groundwater storage, recharge, evapotranspiration, and runoff in most climate projections are mainly driven by the projected increase in precipitation in most of the future climate scenarios. The updated model also was used to test a pilot case study demonstrating water-resource allocation among different users with different water rights using the integrated MODSIM-Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow Model (GSFLOW) platform. The updated SRPHM serves as a valuable tool for analyzing historical and future hydrologic conditions in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed and preparing for future uncertainties.

California

A conceptual framework to assess post-wildfire water quality: State of the science and knowledge gaps

Wildfire substantially alters aquatic ecosystems by inducing moderate to catastrophic physical and chemical changes. However, the relations of environmental and watershed variables that drive those effects are complex. We present a Driver-Factor-Stressor-Effect (DFSE) conceptual framework to assess the current state of the science related to post-wildfire water-quality. We reviewed 64 peer-reviewed papers using the DFSE framework to identify drivers, factors, stressors, and effects associated with each study. A total of five drivers were identified and ranked according to their frequency of occurrence in the literature: atmospheric processes > fire characteristics > ecologic processes and characteristics > land surface characteristics > soil characteristics. Commonly reported stressors include increased nutrients, runoff, and sediment transport. Furthermore, although several different factors have been used at least once to explain water-quality effects, relatively few factors outside of precipitation and fire characteristics are frequently studied. We identified several gaps indicating the need for long-term monitoring, multi-factor studies, consideration of organic contaminants, consideration of groundwater, and inclusion of soil characteristics. This assessment expands on other reviews and meta-analyses by exploring causal linkages between influential variables and overall effects in post-wildfire watersheds. Information gathered from our assessment and the framework itself can be used to inform future monitoring plans and as a guide for modeling efforts focused on better understanding specific processes or to mitigate potential risks of post-wildfire water quality.

Water Resources Research

The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought

Quantitative understanding is lacking on how the depth of active groundwater circulation in bedrock affects mountain streamflow response to a multi‐year drought. We use an integrated hydrological model to explore the sensitivity of a variety of streamflow metrics to bedrock circulation depth and porosity under a plausible extreme drought scenario lasting up to 5 years. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. With drought, a deeper circulation system with higher drainable porosity more effectively buffers minimum flow and significantly limits perennial stream loss in comparison to a shallow circulation system. Streamflow buffering is accomplished through extensive groundwater storage loss. However, deeper circulation systems experience prolonged recovery from drought in comparison to storage‐limited shallow systems. Research highlights the importance of characterizing the deeper bedrock hydrogeology in mountainous watersheds to better understand and predict drought impacts on stream ecosystem health and water resource sustainability.

Colorado

Remote sensing evapotranspiration in ensemble-based framework to enhance cascade routing and re-infiltration concept in integrated hydrological model applied to support decision making

Integrated hydrological models (IHMs) help characterize the complexity of surface–groundwater interactions. The cascade routing and re-infiltration (CRR) concept, recently applied to a MODFLOW 6 IHM, improved conceptualization and simulation of overland flow processes. The CRR controls the transfer of rejected infiltration and groundwater exfiltration from upslope areas to adjacent downslope areas where that water can be evaporated, re-infiltrated back to subsurface, or discharged to streams as direct runoff. The partitioning between these three components is controlled by uncertain parameters that must be estimated. Thus, by quantifying and reducing those uncertainties, next to uncertainties of the other model parameters (e.g. hydraulic and storage parameters), the reliability of the CRR is improved and the IHM is better suited for decision support modelling, the two key objectives of this work. To this end, the remotely sensed MODIS-ET product was incorporated into the calibration process for complementing traditional hydraulic head and streamflow observations. A total of approximately 150,000 observations guided the calibration of a 13-year MODFLOW 6 IHM simulation of the Sardon catchment (Spain) with daily stress periods. The model input uncertainty was represented by grid-cell-scale parameterization, yielding approximately 500,000 unknown input parameters to be conditioned. The calibration was carried out through an iterative ensemble smoother. Incorporating the MODIS-ET data improved the CRR implementation, and reduced uncertainties associated with other model parameters. Additionally, it significantly reduced the uncertainty associated with net recharge, a critical flux for water management that cannot be directly measured and rather is commonly estimated by IHM simulations.

Sardon catchment