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Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

Book↗

Use of behavioral endpoints to determine protective concentrations of the insecticide fonofos for bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus)

This research compared the results of laboratory and mesocosm studies to determine the effectiveness of using behavioral measures of sublethal exposure to define environmental concentration ranges that are protective of free-ranging populations of bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) exposed to the organophophate insecticide fonofos. Thirty-day laboratory chronic studies were conducted to determine the relative sensitivity of standard (e.g. survival and growth) and non-standard behavioral (e.g. swimming capacity, feeding efficiency, and aggression) endpoints in predicting concentrations of fonofos protective of bluegill growth and survival. The lowest observable effect concentration (LOECs) for the standard measures of survival and growth was 5.6 ??g/L. Two behavioral endpoints were of similar sensitivity to the standard measures: swimming capacity, LOEC of 5.6 ??g/L; and prey strike frequency, LOEC of 5.6 ??g/L. However, aggressive interactions were ten-fold more sensitive than swimming or feeding behavior with a LOEC occurring at 0.6 ??g/L. Lab results were compared to an aquatic mesocosm study which exposed adult and juvenile bluegill to a 9.41 ??g/L concentration of fonofos. The dissipation half-life of fonofos was 5 days in 0.1 hectare aquatic mesocosms. Significant mortality among caged bluegill occurred within 4 days of exposure at 9.41 ??g/L. However, the 9.41 ??g/L concentration of fonofos had no statistically significant effects on survival, growth, reproduction, or total biomass of free-ranging populations of bluegill. We conclude from these studies that laboratory data can accurately estimate concentrations that are lethal in the field and that the use of behavioral endpoints can provide ecologically relevant, yet conservative estimates of concentrations that are protective of field populations.

Conference Paper↗

Challenges in Columbia River fisheries conservation: Response to Duda et al.

The salmonid fisheries of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) have enormous socioeconomic, cultural, and ecological importance to numerous diverse stakeholders (e.g., state, federal, tribal, nonprofit), and there are a wide array of opinions and perspectives on how these fisheries should be managed. Although we appreciate Duda et al.’s commentary, it offers only one perspective of many in this context. The objective of our paper (Hand et al. 2018) was to provide justification for “the importance of social–ecological perspectives when communicating conservation values and goals, and the role of independent science in guiding management policy and practice for salmonids in the CRB”. However, we did not intend to strictly advocate for a single course of action, and the available space within our paper’s Panel 1 limited us from engaging in a thorough ecological debate.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?

Conservation organizations must adapt to respond to the ecological impacts of global change. Numerous changes to conservation actions (eg facilitated ecological transitions, managed relocations, or increased corridor development) have been recommended, but some institutional restructuring within organizations may also be needed. Here we discuss the capacity of conservation organizations to adapt to changing environmental conditions, focusing primarily on public agencies and nonprofits active in land protection and management in the US. After first reviewing how these organizations anticipate and detect impacts affecting target species and ecosystems, we then discuss whether they are sufficiently flexible to prepare and respond by reallocating funding, staff, or other resources. We raise new hypotheses about how the configuration of different organizations enables them to protect particular conservation targets and manage for particular biophysical changes that require coordinated management actions over different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we provide a discussion resource to help conservation organizations assess their capacity to adapt.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Rivers are social–ecological systems: Time to integrate human dimensions into riverscape ecology and management

Incorporation of concepts from landscape ecology into understanding and managing riverine ecosystems has become widely known as riverscape ecology. Riverscape ecology emphasizes interactions among processes at different scales and their consequences for valued ecosystem components, such as riverine fishes. Past studies have focused strongly on understanding the ecological processes in riverscapes and how human actions modify those processes. It is increasingly clear, however, that an understanding of the drivers behind actions that lead to human modification also merit consideration, especially regarding how those drivers influence management efficacy. These indirect drivers of riverscape outcomes can be understood in the context of a diverse array of social processes, which we collectively refer to as human dimensions. Like ecological phenomena, social processes also exhibit complex interactions across spatiotemporal scales. Greater emphasis on feedbacks between social and ecological processes will lead scientists and managers to more completely understand riverscapes as complex, dynamic, interacting social–ecological systems. Emerging applications in riverscapes, as well as studies of other ecosystems, provide examples that can lead to stronger integration of social and ecological science. We argue that conservation successes within riverscapes may not come from better ecological science, improved ecosystem service analyses, or even economic incentives if the fundamental drivers of human behaviors are not understood and addressed in conservation planning and implementation.

WIREs Water↗

Fine-scale farming features drive resource selection of a small carnivore of conservation concern

Anthropogenic factors are accelerating species extinction, with small mammalian carnivores among the most affected. These species play vital ecological roles, yet their conservation needs are often overlooked. Our study focused on the plains spotted skunk ( Spilogale interrupta (Rafinesque, 1820)), a small carnivore that has experienced population declines. We hypothesized that their resource selection was influenced by factors expected to influence prey availability, protection from predators, and human activity. We tracked 14 plains spotted skunks in east-central South Dakota, USA, over 2 years during spring and summer. Using mixed-effects logistic regression, we identified seasonal habitat associations. In spring, plains spotted skunks selected areas near farming structures and human development, avoiding high wetland density and crop cover. In summer, they continued to select areas near farming structures and low human development, but also high wetland density and pasture, while avoiding hay bales and crop cover. Our first analysis of the species’ resource use in the Great Plains indicates that plains spotted skunks select habitats with permanent small-scale agricultural features and varying levels of human development across seasons. Our findings suggest that species’ persistence in the region may depend on conservation strategies that account for seasonal planning, habitat heterogeneity, and key agricultural structures.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗

Shade-grown coffee in Puerto Rico: Opportunities to preserve biodiversity while reinvigorating a struggling agricultural commodity

Shade-grown coffee contributes to biodiversity conservation and has many ecological benefits. We reviewed historical trends in coffee production and interviewed 100 coffee growers in 1999 to determine current management practices and attitudes toward the cultivation of sun and shade coffee in Puerto Rico. We discuss the outlook for the coffee industry in the 21st century and implications for biodiversity conservation, hoping lessons from Puerto Rico will apply to the international coffee industry. Throughout the 20th century, government intervention, including subsidies and technical assistance, supported coffee farming in Puerto Rico. In an effort to modernize coffee production and increase yields, the conversion from shade to sun coffee plantations was encouraged. Despite government support, the amount of land devoted to this once dominant agricultural commodity declined markedly between 1982 and 2007 (84%), due to labor shortages, low income, and catastrophic hurricanes. We found that a return to shaded plantations would be embraced by most farmers. Growers of shaded coffee were generally happier with their cultivation practices (89.3% satisfied) than growers of sun coffee (60.9% satisfied), valued biodiversity, and were willing to cultivate coffee under shade if given similar incentives to those received for farming sun coffee. The future of the coffee industry in Puerto Rico may depend on government programs that capitalize upon emerging markets for sustainably produced, shade-grown coffee. We conclude that where governments have close ties to the coffee industry, they should strive to wed economic development with the conservation of biodiversity and associated ecological services by providing support and incentives for the production of shade coffee.

Puerto Rico↗

Control of a dominant predator influences the occurrence of a mesocarnivore of conservation concern

Context Interspecific interactions shape ecological communities, influence community dynamics, and drive co-evolution. Despite their ecological significance, predation and competition remain understudied in plains spotted skunks ( Spilogale interrupta ), a species of conservation concern. Clarifying how predator management influences their occurrence is crucial for effective conservation. Aims We investigated how coyote ( Canis latrans ) management affects the occupancy of plains spotted skunks and whether interspecific interactions with domestic cats ( Felis catus ) and striped skunks ( Mephitis mephitis ) influence plains spotted skunk occurrence. Methods We analysed live-trap data from east-central South Dakota collected in spring of 2021 and 2022. The study area encompassed portions of counties that implemented disparate predator management regimes, including one with systematic annual coyote removal and another without. We used single-species occupancy models to estimate detection and occupancy probabilities for plains spotted skunks, domestic cats, and striped skunks, incorporating environmental factors, including the site-specific predator control regime. We then applied conditional two-species occupancy models to test whether cats and striped skunks influenced plains spotted skunk occurrence. Key results Plains spotted skunks had the lowest occupancy, followed by domestic cats, and striped skunks. Our findings showed significant associations between coyote removal and occupancy probabilities for each mesocarnivore species. Plains spotted skunks had higher occupancy in areas where coyotes were annually removed. Spotted skunk occurrence was not conditional on either domestic cat or striped skunk occurrence. Conclusions In our study system, cats appear to pose less predation risk to spotted skunks than do other predators, reducing the likelihood that cats significantly influence spotted skunk occupancy. Defensive behaviours and use of spatial refugia by plains spotted skunks may further mitigate predation risk. In addition, co-evolutionary pressures may have led to trait adaptations that facilitate the independent co-occurrence of plains spotted skunks and striped skunks. Implications Our findings highlighted the ecological consequences of predator management and the importance of considering predator–prey dynamics in conservation and management planning. Strategies aimed at conserving plains spotted skunks should integrate predator control measures while considering broader mesocarnivore community interactions.

South Dakota↗

Trophic ecology of northern pike and their effect on conservation of westslope cutthroat trout.

Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi in Coeur d’Alene Lake, Idaho, have declined in recent years; predation by Northern Pike Esox lucius , a nonnative sport fish, is thought to be a causative mechanism. The goal of this study was to describe the seasonal food habits of Northern Pike and determine their influence on Westslope Cutthroat Trout in Coeur d’Alene Lake by using a bioenergetics modeling approach. Fish were sampled monthly from March 2012 to May 2013 using pulsed-DC electrofishing and experimental gillnetting in four bays. Northern Pike catch rates from electrofishing were generally low but increased slightly each season and were highest in the southern portion of the lake; catch rates from gillnetting were approximately 50% higher during the two spring sampling periods compared with the summer and fall. Seasonal growth and food habits of 695 Northern Pike (TL = 16.2–108.0 cm; weight = 24–9,628 g) were analyzed. Diets primarily consisted of kokanee O. nerka , Westslope Cutthroat Trout, and Yellow Perch Perca flavescens . Results of a bioenergetics model estimated that Westslope Cutthroat Trout represented approximately 2–30% of the biomass consumed by age-1–4 Northern Pike. Total Westslope Cutthroat Trout biomass consumed by Northern Pike (2008–2011 year-classes) across all seasons sampled was estimated to be 1,231 kg (95% CI = 723–2,396 kg), and the total number consumed was 5,641 (95% CI = 3,311–10,979). The highest occurrence of Westslope Cutthroat Trout in Northern Pike diets was observed during spring. Thus, reducing Northern Pike predation on Westslope Cutthroat Trout would be one tool worth considering for conserving Westslope Cutthroat Trout populations in Coeur d’Alene Lake.

Idaho↗

Can private land conservation reduce wildfire risk to homes? A case study in San Diego County, California, USA

The purchase of private land for conservation purposes is a common way to prevent the exploitation of sensitive ecological areas. However, private land conservation can also provide other benefits, one of these being natural hazard reduction. Here, we investigated the impacts of private land conservation on fire risk to homes in San Diego County, California. We coupled an econometric land use change model with a model that estimates the probability of house loss due to fire in order to compare fire risk at the county and municipality scale under alternative private land purchasing schemes and over a 20 year time horizon. We found that conservation purchases could reduce fire risk on this landscape, and the amount of risk reduction was related to the targeting approach used to choose which parcels were conserved. Conservation land purchases that targeted parcels designated as high fire hazard resulted in lower fire risk to homes than purchases that targeted low costs or high likelihood to subdivide. This result was driven by (1) preventing home placement in fire prone areas and (2) taking land off the market, and hence increasing development densities in other areas. These results raise the possibility that resource conservation and fire hazard reduction may benefit from combining efforts. With adequate planning, future conservation purchases could have synergistic effects beyond just protecting ecologically sensitive areas.

California↗

A decision-support tool to prioritize candidate landscapes for lesser prairie-chicken conservation

Context Development of systematic methods for conservation planning has improved effectiveness and efficiency of implementing such plans. The lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) is a grouse species of conservation concern native to the southwestern Great Plains of the United States. Recent lesser prairie-chicken conservation planning has involved identifying ecologically important areas but has not incorporated economic data into prioritization of areas to target for conservation management. Objectives We used the program Marxan to develop a decision-support tool for managers in Kansas to prioritize tracts for improving lesser prairie-chicken habitat quality and increasing habitat availability. We developed three different conservation scenarios and evaluated the tradeoffs among multiple planning objectives in these scenarios. Methods We incorporated population targets from an existing conservation plan and agricultural economic data to help select land with maximum ecological value and minimum economic productivity to prioritize for lesser prairie-chicken conservation. We compared potential conservation plans and incorporated a post hoc connectivity model to test potential for individuals to travel among habitat patches in these plans during dispersal events. Results We found that different conservation scenarios led to different solutions, though differences varied by ecoregion. Potential solutions for all scenarios contained habitat patches not currently included in existing conservation plans and had high connectivity potential. Conclusions These results provide context for spatial prioritization of lesser prairie-chicken habitat management in Kansas. Application of this approach to species of conservation interest could help managers incorporate socioeconomic factors into planning methods and identify important tracts for conservation currently overlooked by existing planning methods.

Kansas↗

Site fidelity as a maladaptive behavior in the Anthropocene

Site fidelity, or the behavior of returning to previously visited locations, has been observed across taxa and ecosystems. By developing familiarity with a particular location, site fidelity provides a range of benefits and is advantageous in stable or predictable environments. However, the Anthropocene is characterized by rates of environmental change that outpace the evolutionary history of extant taxa, which can result in site fidelity becoming maladaptive. Here we outline the theoretical underpinnings for maladaptive site fidelity and synthesize empirical research supporting its occurrence, and examine it in the context of a related concept, ecological traps, whereby organisms exhibit maladaptive behavior in habitat selection. We then discuss adaptive mechanisms that may enable species with site fidelity to continue to persist in the Anthropocene. With ongoing environmental change, researchers and practitioners should expect fidelity-induced ecological traps to become more common, and initiate projects to identify and understand their origins. Such knowledge will help conserve the widespread and ecologically important behavior of site fidelity.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Climate change and coastal wetland salinization: Physiological and ecological consequences for Arctic waterfowl

Coastal wetland salinization related to warming climate has the potential to impact ecological systems globally. In Alaska, the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) supports large concentrations of breeding water birds and is an ecologically important area for conservation of migratory bird biodiversity. On the YKD, the majority of waterfowl nest in low elevation coastal tundra where storm surges drive saline water into terrestrial wetland habitats. Because newly hatched water birds lack functional salt glands to process saline water, salinization may negatively impact their growth and survival. We investigated potential demographic impacts of wetland salinization by conducting controlled physiological experiments to determine consequences of saline water exposure to spectacled Somateria fischeri and Steller's eider Polysticta stelleri ducklings, and analysed habitat suitability based on experimentally defined tolerance thresholds and sampled wetland salinity levels. We found physiological and behavioural pathologies in <1 week old ducklings at exposure levels of 6 parts per thousand (ppt), and found some evidence of reduced growth in ducklings first exposed after 1 week of age. We conclude that the acute toxicity threshold for ducklings <1 week of age is ≤6 ppt. We found that the area of coastal tundra where wetland salinity exceeded 6 ppt varied considerably among years, suggesting that some portion of the breeding range is unsuitable for rearing ducklings in some years. However, we also found that most eiders in most years nested in areas with salinity at or exceeding the tolerance threshold for ducklings, suggesting that nesting eiders do not appear to avoid saline habitats. We suggest that localized fresh water refugia currently may allow resilience to salinization during the critical period. Understanding how species and habitats respond to climate driven changes is essential for predicting future patterns of distribution and abundance, and is necessary for making informed decisions about conservation priorities. Our study provides insights into the extent of wetland salinization in Alaska, mechanism of impact and current ecological consequences on avian communities depending on these habitats. With ongoing climate change, the probability of species crossing physiological tolerance thresholds of wetland salinity may change in the future.

Functional Ecology↗

Identifying mismatches between conservation area networks and vulnerable populations using spatial randomization

Grassland birds are among the most globally threatened bird groups due to substantial degradation of native grassland habitats. However, the current network of grassland conservation areas may not be adequate for halting population declines and biodiversity loss. Here, we evaluate a network of grassland conservation areas within Wisconsin, U.S.A., that includes both large Focal Landscapes and smaller targeted conservation areas (e.g., Grassland Bird Conservation Areas, GBCAs) established within them. To date, this conservation network has lacked baseline information to assess whether the current placement of these conservation areas aligns with population hot spots of grassland-dependent taxa. To do so, we fitted data from thousands of avian point-count surveys collected by citizen scientists as part of Wisconsin's Breeding Bird Atlas II with multinomial N -mixture models to estimate habitat–abundance relationships, develop spatially explicit predictions of abundance, and establish ecological baselines within priority conservation areas for a suite of obligate grassland songbirds. Next, we developed spatial randomization tests to evaluate the placement of this conservation network relative to randomly placed conservation networks. Overall, less than 20% of species statewide populations were found within the current grassland conservation network. Spatial tests demonstrated a high representation of this bird assemblage within the entire conservation network, but with a bias toward birds associated with moderately tallgrasses relative to those associated with shortgrasses or tallgrasses. We also found that GBCAs had higher representation at Focal Landscape rather than statewide scales. Here, we demonstrated how combining citizen science data with hierarchical modeling is a powerful tool for estimating ecological baselines and conducting large-scale evaluations of an existing conservation network for multiple grassland birds. Our flexible spatial randomization approach offers the potential to be applied to other protected area networks and serves as a complementary tool for conservation planning efforts globally.

Wisconsin↗

A decision support tool for adaptive management of native prairie ecosystems

The Native Prairie Adaptive Management initiative is a decision support framework that provides cooperators with management-action recommendations to help them conserve native species and suppress invasive species on prairie lands. We developed a Web-based decision support tool (DST) for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey initiative. The DST facilitates cross-organizational data sharing, performs analyses to improve conservation delivery, and requires no technical expertise to operate. Each year since 2012, the DST has used monitoring data to update ecological knowledge that it translates into situation-specific management-action recommendations (e.g., controlled burn or prescribed graze). The DST provides annual recommendations for more than 10,000 acres on 20 refuge complexes in four U.S. states. We describe how the DST promotes the long-term implementation of the program for which it was designed and may facilitate decision support and improve ecological outcomes of other conservation efforts.

Interfaces↗

Moving from decision to action in conservation science

Biodiversity loss is a major threat to the integrity of ecosystems and is projected to worsen, yet the path to successful conservation remains elusive. Decision support frameworks (DSFs) are increasingly applied by resource managers to navigate the complexity, uncertainty, and differing socio-ecological objectives inherent to conservation problems. Most published conservation research that uses DSFs focuses on analytical stages (e.g., identifying an optimal decision), making it difficult to assess and learn from previous examples in a conservation practice context. Here, we (1) evaluate the relationship between the application of decision science and the resulting conservation outcomes, and (2) identify and address existing barriers to the application of DSFs to conservation practice. To do this, we develop a framework for evaluating conservation initiatives using decision science that emphasizes setting attainable goals, building momentum, and obtaining partner buy-in. We apply this framework to a systematic review of amphibian conservation decision support projects, including a follow-up survey of the pertinent conservation practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists. We found that all projects identified optimal solutions to reach stated objectives, but positive conservation outcomes were limited when implementation challenges arose. Further, we identified multiple barriers (e.g., dynamic and hierarchical leadership, scale complexity, limited resource availability) that can inhibit the progression from decision identification to action implementation (i.e., ‘decision-implementation gap’), and to successful conservation outcomes. Based on these results, we provide potential actionable steps and avenues for future development of DSFs to facilitate the transition from decision to action and the realization of conservation successes.

Biological Conservation↗

Effects of urbanization, and habitat composition on site occupancy of two snake species using regional monitoring data from southern California

Detection data from a regional, reptile-monitoring program conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey were analyzed to understand the effects of urbanization and habitat composition on site occupancy of the coachwhip ( Masticophis flagellum ) and striped racer ( M. lateralis ) in coastal southern California. Likelihood-based occupancy models indicated striped racers responded to habitat composition, favoring scrub-dominated sites. Coachwhips also responded to habitat composition, favoring open habitats. However, unlike racers, coachwhip spatial population dynamics were strongly associated with the fragmentation and isolation of natural areas caused by urbanization. The odds of coachwhips occupying a site were 64 times greater in large connected areas than the most urbanized and fragmented sites. For coachwhips within urbanized and fragmented sites, the odds of extinction were 10 times greater and odds of colonization were five times lower than in large connected sites. Observed differences between both species in habitat use and specificity are supported by telemetry studies and corroborate existing knowledge of historical patterns of occurrence within the region. Movement data on the coachwhip and striped racer indicate the coachwhip is a wider-ranging species with a greater propensity to encounter roads and other edge environments. Collectively, the results suggest there is widespread loss of the coachwhip from the region, and that long-term persistence of remaining populations is dependent on metapopulation dynamics. The substantially different response of the two species to land-use change serves as a caution against the casual use of closely related species as surrogates in the development of species-specific conservation plans.

California↗