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USGS2010

The influence of maximum magnitude on seismic-hazard estimates in the Central and Eastern United States

I analyze the sensitivity of seismic-hazard estimates in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) to maximum magnitude (m max ) by exercising the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) probabilistic hazard model with several m max alternatives. Seismicity-based sources control the hazard in most of the CEUS, but data seldom provide an objective basis for estimating m max . The USGS uses preferred m max values of moment magnitude 7.0 and 7.5 for the CEUS craton and extended margin, respectively, derived from data in stable continental regions worldwide. Other approaches, for example analysis of local seismicity or judgment about a source's seismogenic potential, often lead to much smaller m max . Alternative models span the m max ranges from the 1980s Electric Power Research Institute/Seismicity Owners Group (EPRI/SOG) analysis. Results are presented as haz-ard ratios relative to the USGS national seismic hazard maps. One alternative model specifies m max equal to moment magnitude 5.0 and 5.5 for the craton and margin, respectively, similar to EPRI/SOG for some sources. For 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (about 0.0004 annual probability), the strong m max truncation produces hazard ratios equal to 0.35-0.60 for 0.2-sec spectral acceleration, and 0.15-0.35 for 1.0-sec spectral acceleration. Hazard-controlling earthquakes interact with m max in complex ways. There is a relatively weak dependence on probability level: hazardratios increase 0-15% for 0.002 annual exceedance probability and decrease 5-25% for 0.00001 annual exceedance probability. Although differences at some sites are tempered when faults are added, m max clearly accounts for some of the discrepancies that are seen in comparisons between USGS-based and EPRI/SOG-based hazard results.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Evidence for a twelfth large earthquake on the southern hayward fault in the past 1900 years

We present age and stratigraphic evidence for an additional paleoearthquake at the Tyson Lagoon site. The acquisition of 19 additional radiocarbon dates and the inclusion of this additional event has resolved a large age discrepancy in our earlier earthquake chronology. The age of event E10 was previously poorly constrained, thus increasing the uncertainty in the mean recurrence interval (RI), a critical factor in seismic hazard evaluation. Reinspection of many trench logs revealed substantial evidence suggesting that an additional earthquake occurred between E10 and E9 within unit u45. Strata in older u45 are faulted in the main fault zone and overlain by scarp colluviums in two locations.We conclude that an additional surfacerupturing event (E9.5) occurred between E9 and E10. Since 91 A.D. (??40 yr, 1??), 11 paleoearthquakes preceded the M 6:8 earthquake in 1868, yielding a mean RI of 161 ?? 65 yr (1??, standard deviation of recurrence intervals). However, the standard error of the mean (SEM) is well determined at ??10 yr. Since ~1300 A.D., the mean rate has increased slightly, but is indistinguishable from the overall rate within the uncertainties. Recurrence for the 12-event sequence seems fairly regular: the coefficient of variation is 0.40, and it yields a 30-yr earthquake probability of 29%. The apparent regularity in timing implied by this earthquake chronology lends support for the use of time-dependent renewal models rather than assuming a random process to forecast earthquakes, at least for the southern Hayward fault.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Rupture directivity of moderate earthquakes in northern California

We invert peak ground velocity and acceleration (PGV and PGA) to estimate rupture direction and rupture velocity for 47 moderate earthquakes (3.5≥M≥5.4) in northern California. We correct sets of PGAs and PGVs recorded at stations less than 55–125 km, depending on source depth, for site amplification and source–receiver distance, then fit the residual peak motions to the unilateral directivity function of Ben-Menahem (1961). We independently invert PGA and PGV. The rupture direction can be determined using as few as seven peak motions if the station distribution is sufficient. The rupture velocity is unstable, however, if there are no takeoff angles within 30° of the rupture direction. Rupture velocities are generally subsonic (0.5β–0.9β); for stability, we limit the rupture velocity at v=0.92β, the Rayleigh wave speed. For 73 of 94 inversions, the rupture direction clearly identifies one of the nodal planes as the fault plane. The 35 strike-slip earthquakes have rupture directions that range from nearly horizontal (6 events) to directly updip (5 events); the other 24 rupture partly along strike and partly updip. Two strike-slip earthquakes rupture updip in one inversion and downdip in the other. All but 1 of the 11 thrust earthquakes rupture predominantly updip. We compare the rupture directions for 10 M≥4.0 earthquakes to the relative location of the mainshock and the first two weeks of aftershocks. Spatial distributions of 8 of 10 aftershock sequences agree well with the rupture directivity calculated for the mainshock.

California↗
USGS2010

Localized surface disruptions observed by InSAR during strong earthquakes in Java and Hawai'i

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data spanning strong earthquakes on the islands of Java and Hawai‘i in 2006 reveal patches of subsidence and incoherence indicative of localized ground failure. Interferograms spanning the 26 May 2006 Java earthquake suggest an area of about 7.5 km 2 of subsidence (~2 cm) and incoherence south of the city of Yogyakarta that correlates with significant damage to housing, high modeled peak ground accelerations, and poorly consolidated geologic deposits. The subsidence and incoherence is inferred to be a result of intense shaking and/or damage. At least five subsidence patches on the west side of the Island of Hawai‘i, ranging 0.3–2.2 km 2 in area and 3–8 cm in magnitude, occurred as a result of a pair of strong earthquakes on 15 October 2006. Although no felt reports or seismic data are available from the areas in Hawai‘i, the Java example suggests that the subsidence patches indicate areas of amplified earthquake shaking. Surprisingly, all subsidence areas in Hawai‘i were limited to recent, and supposedly stable, lava flows and may reflect geological conditions not detectable at the surface. In addition, two ‘a‘ā lava flows in Hawai‘i were partially incoherent in interferograms spanning the earthquakes, indicating surface disruption as a result of the earthquake shaking. Coearthquake incoherence of rubbly deposits, like ‘a‘ā flows, should be explored as a potential indicator of earthquake intensity and past strong seismic activity.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2012

Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

Estimates of the probability that an M L 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the M L 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

LiDAR-Assisted identification of an active fault near Truckee, California

We use high-resolution (1.5-2.4 points/m2) bare-earth airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) imagery to identify, map, constrain, and visualize fault-related geomorphology in densely vegetated terrain surrounding Martis Creek Dam near Truckee, California. Bare-earth LiDAR imagery reveals a previously unrecognized and apparently youthful right-lateral strike-slip fault that exhibits laterally continuous tectonic geomorphic features over a 35-km-long zone. If these interpretations are correct, the fault, herein named the Polaris fault, may represent a significant seismic hazard to the greater Truckee-Lake Tahoe and Reno-Carson City regions. Three-dimensional modeling of an offset late Quaternary terrace riser indicates a minimum tectonic slip rate of 0.4 ?? 0.1 mm/yr.Mapped fault patterns are fairly typical of regional patterns elsewhere in the northern Walker Lane and are in strong coherence with moderate magnitude historical seismicity of the immediate area, as well as the current regional stress regime. Based on a range of surface-rupture lengths and depths to the base of the seismogenic zone, we estimate a maximum earthquake magnitude (M) for the Polaris fault to be between 6.4 and 6.9.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Short baseline variations in site response and wave-propagation effects and their structural causes: Four examples in and around the santa clara valley, California

Ground motion records of local and regional events from a portable array are used to investigate the structural causes of variations in ground motion over distances of a few hundred meters to a few kilometers in the sedimentary basin environment of the Santa Clara Valley, California, and its margins. Arrays of portable seismic stations are used to target four study areas with different ground motion patterns: (1) an edge of the alluvial basin extending up onto a marginal ridge (Blossom Hill), (2) a Cenozoic basin with a nearly flat bottom (Cupertino Basin), (3) a long, narrow Cenozoic basin with a steep V profile (Evergreen Basin), and (4) a line perpendicular to the trace of the Hayward fault. Average peak velocities on Blossom Hill from local earthquakes are a factor of 2.5 times higher than nearby valley sites. Three-dimensional (3D) modeling is used to conclude that the majority of the amplification is due to lower shear-wave velocities along a local fault zone (Shannon–Berrocal). Site amplification over the Cupertino Basin in the frequency band 0.5–4 Hz is generally low (less than 2.0 relative to a Mesozoic rock site) and spatially uniform. This response is attributed to the shallow, flat-bottomed shape of the basin and the uniform, flat-laying sedimentary fill. In contrast, site amplification in the Evergreen Basin generally exceeds 3.0 and is attributed to the deep, V-shaped geometry of the basin and younger sedimentary fill. 3D waveform modeling shows the elongated shape of the Evergreen Basin causes more efficient trapping of long-period waves for sources along the long axis of the basin. A low-velocity zone is postulated along the Hayward fault with a width between 100 and 200 m, based on elevated site response along the fault trace and 4.5-Hz fault zone guided waves on the horizontal components of stations near the fault.

California↗
USGS2010

Seismotectonics and fault structure of the California Central Coast

I present and interpret new earthquake relocations and focal mechanisms for the California Central Coast. The relocations improve upon catalog locations by using 3D seismic velocity models to account for lateral variations in structure and by using relative arrival times from waveform cross-correlation and double-difference methods to image seismicity features more sharply. Focal mechanisms are computed using ray tracing in the 3D velocity models. Seismicity alignments on the Hosgri fault confirm that it is vertical down to at least 12 km depth, and the focal mechanisms are consistent with right-lateral strike-slip motion on a vertical fault. A prominent, newly observed feature is an ~25 km long linear trend of seismicity running just offshore and parallel to the coastline in the region of Point Buchon, informally named the Shoreline fault. This seismicity trend is accompanied by a linear magnetic anomaly, and both the seismicity and the magnetic anomaly end where they obliquely meet the Hosgri fault. Focal mechanisms indicate that the Shoreline fault is a vertical strike-slip fault. Several seismicity lineations with vertical strike-slip mechanisms are observed in Estero Bay. Events greater than about 10 km depth in Estero Bay, however, exhibit reverse-faulting mechanisms, perhaps reflecting slip at the top of the remnant subducted slab. Strike-slip mechanisms are observed offshore along the Hosgri–San Simeon fault system and onshore along the West Huasna and Rinconada faults, while reverse mechanisms are generally confined to the region between these two systems. This suggests a model in which the reverse faulting is primarily due to restraining left-transfer of right-lateral slip.

California↗
USGS2010

Reply to “Comment on ‘Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting?’ by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist” by Jens-Uwe Klügel

The focus of Parsons and Geist (2009) was to test whether the key observational data used in earthquake forecasting necessitate a characteristic earthquake rupture model. The point of our article was not to suggest that a specific form of the Gutenberg–Richter earthquake distribution is a perfect representation of reality. The uncertainties surrounding event slip estimates, paleoseismic event rates, and observed a and b values in catalog magnitude–frequency distributions are broad. So broad, in fact, that giving full weight to just one model of earthquake rupture behavior in formal forecasting is unjustified. Further, the characteristic earthquake model requires definition of rupture segments, which introduces a series of unquantifiable uncertainties that are seldom addressed in forecasts (e.g., Field et al., 2009).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Reply to “Comment on ‘Near-surface location, geometry, and velocities of the Santa Monica fault zone, Los Angeles, California’ by R. D. Catchings, G. Gandhok, M. R. Goldman, D. Okaya, M. J. Rymer, and G. W. Bawden” by T. L. Pratt and J. F. Dolan

In a comment on our 2008 paper (Catchings, Gandhok, et al. , 2008) on the Santa Monica fault in Los Angeles, California, Pratt and Dolan (2010) (herein referred to as P&D) cite numerous objections to our work, inferring that our study is flawed. However, as shown in our reply, their objections contradict their own published works, published works of others, and proven seismic methodologies. Rather than responding to each repeated invalid objection, we address their objections by topic in the subsequent sections. In Catchings, Gandhok, et al. (2008), we presented high-resolution seismic-reflection images that showed two near-surface faults in the upper 50 m beneath the grounds of the Wadsworth Veterans Administration Hospital (WVAH). Although P&D suggest we effectively duplicated their seismic acquisition, our survey was not a duplication of their efforts. Rather, we conducted a seismic-imaging survey over a similar profile as Pratt et al. (1998) but used a different data acquisition system and different data processing methods to evaluate methods of seismically imaging blind faults in the wake of the 17 January 1994 M 6.7 Northridge earthquake. We used an acquisition method that provides both tomographic seismic velocities and reflection images. Our combined-data approach allowed for shallower imaging (∼2.5 m minimum) than the ∼20-m minimum of Pratt et al. (1998), clearer images of the fault zone, and more accurate depth determinations (rather than time images). In processing the reflection images, we used prestack depth migration, which is generally accepted as the only proper imaging method for imaging subsurface structures with strong lateral velocity variations (Versteeg, 1993), a condition shown to exist at the WVAH site. We correlated our reflection images with refraction tomography images, borehole lithology, and velocity data, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar images, and changes in groundwater depths. Except for some minor differences, our seismic-reflection images coincide with previously published seismic-reflection images by Dolan and Pratt (1997) and Pratt et al. (1998), and a paleoseismic study by Dolan et al. (2000). Principal differences among our interpretations and those of Pratt et al. (1998) relate to the upper 20 m and the south side of the fault, which Pratt et al. (1998) did not clearly image. In contrast, our seismic images included structures on both sides of the fault zone from about 2.5 m depth to about 100 m depth at WVAH, allowing us to interpret more details.

California↗
USGS2010

Normal-faulting slip maxima and stress-drop variability: A geological perspective

We present an empirical estimate of maximum slip in continental normal-faulting earthquakes and present evidence that stress drop in intraplate extensional environments is dependent on fault maturity. A survey of reported slip in historical earthquakes globally and in latest Quaternary paleoearthquakes in the Western Cordillera of the United States indicates maximum vertical displacements as large as 6–6.5 m. A difference in the ratio of maximum-to-mean displacements between data sets of prehistoric and historical earthquakes, together with constraints on bias in estimates of mean paleodisplacement, suggest that applying a correction factor of 1.4±0.3 to the largest observed displacement along a paleorupture may provide a reasonable estimate of the maximum displacement. Adjusting the largest paleodisplacements in our regional data set (∼6 m) by a factor of 1.4 yields a possible upper-bound vertical displacement for the Western Cordillera of about 8.4 m, although a smaller correction factor may be more appropriate for the longest ruptures. Because maximum slip is highly localized along strike, if such large displacements occur, they are extremely rare. Static stress drop in surface-rupturing earthquakes in the Western Cordillera, as represented by maximum reported displacement as a fraction of modeled rupture length, appears to be larger on normal faults with low cumulative geologic displacement (<2 km) and larger in regions such as the Rocky Mountains, where immature, low-throw faults are concentrated. This conclusion is consistent with a growing recognition that structural development influences stress drop and indicates that this influence is significant enough to be evident among faults within a single intraplate environment.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Variable-period surface-wave magnitudes: A rapid and robust estimator of seismic moments

We demonstrate that surface-wave magnitudes (Ms), measured at local, regional, and teleseismic distances, can be used as a rapid and robust estimator of seismic moment magnitude (Mw). We used the Russell (2006) variable-period surface-wave magnitude formula, henceforth called Ms(VMAX), to estimate the Ms for 165 North American events with 3.2 <Mw < 6.5 at distances ranging from 48 to 5268 km. Of the 7370 event-station pairs, more than half (4051) of the measurements were at distances less than 1000 km. Mw estimated from broadband waveform modeling (Herrmann et al., 2008) were regressed against Ms(VMAX). Mw can be estimated from Ms (VMAX) using the relationship: Mw = 1.91 + 0.66Msx (VMAX) for 2 <Ms < 6. The observed scatter of the Mw[Ms(VMAX)] with respect to Mw[Waveform Modeling] was approximately ??0.2 magnitude units (m.u). The residuals between Mw [Ms(VMAX)] and Mw [Waveform Modeling] show a significant focal mechanism effect, especially when strike-slip events are compared with other mechanisms. Validation testing of this method suggests that Ms(VMAX)-predicted Mw's can be estimated within minutes after the origin of an event and are typically within ??0.2 m.u. of the final Mw[Waveform Modeling]. While Mw estimated from Ms(VMAX) has a slightly higher variance than waveform modeling results, it can be measured on the first short-period surface-wave observed at a local or near-regional distance seismic station after a preliminary epicentral location has been formed. Therefore, it may be used to make rapid measurements of Mw, which are needed by government agencies for early warning systems.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Orientation-independent, nongeometric-mean measures of seismic intensity from two horizontal components of motion

New measures of spectral intensity based on the horizontal components of ground shaking are introduced. These new measures are independent of the in situ orientation of the recordings and encompass the full range of spectral amplitudes over all possible rotation angles. Unlike previously introduced measures that are also orientation independent, no geometric means are used in the computation of the new measures. The new measures based on fiftieth percentile values of the response spectra show small but systematic increases (to a factor of about 1.07 at a 10 sec period) compared to the comparable geometric-mean measure.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Precise estimation of repeating earthquake moment: Example from parkfield, california

We offer a new method for estimating the relative size of repeating earthquakes using the singular value decomposition (SVD). This method takes advantage of the highly coherent waveforms of repeating earthquakes and arrives at far more precise and accurate descriptions of earthquake size than standard catalog techniques allow. We demonstrate that uncertainty in relative moment estimates is reduced from ??75% for standard coda-duration techniques employed by the network to an uncertainty of ??6.6% when the SVD method is used. This implies that a single-station estimate of moment using the SVD method has far less uncertainty than the whole-network estimates of moment based on coda duration. The SVD method offers a significant improvement in our ability to describe the size of repeating earthquakes and thus an opportunity to better understand how they accommodate slip as a function of time.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

The 2007 Nazko, British Columbia, earthquake sequence: Injection of magma deep in the crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt

On 9 October 2007, an unusual sequence of earthquakes began in central British Columbia about 20 km west of the Nazko cone, the most recent (circa 7200 yr) volcanic center in the Anahim volcanic belt. Within 25 hr, eight earthquakes of magnitude 2.3-2.9 occurred in a region where no earthquakes had previously been recorded. During the next three weeks, more than 800 microearthquakes were located (and many more detected), most at a depth of 25-31 km and within a radius of about 5 km. After about two months, almost all activity ceased. The clear P- and S-wave arrivals indicated that these were high-frequency (volcanic-tectonic) earthquakes and the b value of 1.9 that we calculated is anomalous for crustal earthquakes but consistent with volcanic-related events. Analysis of receiver functions at a station immediately above the seismicity indicated a Moho near 30 km depth. Precise relocation of the seismicity using a double-difference method suggested a horizontal migration at the rate of about 0:5 km=d, with almost all events within the lowermost crust. Neither harmonic tremor nor long-period events were observed; however, some spasmodic bursts were recorded and determined to be colocated with the earthquake hypocenters. These observations are all very similar to a deep earthquake sequence recorded beneath Lake Tahoe, California, in 2003-2004. Based on these remarkable similarities, we interpret the Nazko sequence as an indication of an injection of magma into the lower crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt. This magma injection fractures rock, producing high-frequency, volcanic-tectonic earthquakes and spasmodic bursts.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

Fault displacement hazard for strike-slip faults

In this paper we present a methodology, data, and regression equations for calculating the fault rupture hazard at sites near steeply dipping, strike-slip faults. We collected and digitized on-fault and off-fault displacement data for 9 global strikeslip earthquakes ranging from moment magnitude M 6.5 to M 7.6 and supplemented these with displacements from 13 global earthquakes compiled byWesnousky (2008), who considers events up to M 7.9. Displacements on the primary fault fall off at the rupture ends and are often measured in meters, while displacements on secondary (offfault) or distributed faults may measure a few centimeters up to more than a meter and decay with distance from the rupture. Probability of earthquake rupture is less than 15% for cells 200 m??200 m and is less than 2% for 25 m??25 m cells at distances greater than 200mfrom the primary-fault rupture. Therefore, the hazard for off-fault ruptures is much lower than the hazard near the fault. Our data indicate that rupture displacements up to 35cm can be triggered on adjacent faults at distances out to 10kmor more from the primary-fault rupture. An example calculation shows that, for an active fault which has repeated large earthquakes every few hundred years, fault rupture hazard analysis should be an important consideration in the design of structures or lifelines that are located near the principal fault, within about 150 m of well-mapped active faults with a simple trace and within 300 m of faults with poorly defined or complex traces.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

San Andreas fault earthquake chronology and Lake Cahuilla history at Coachella, California

The southernmost ~100 km of the San Andreas fault has not ruptured historically. It is imperative to determine its rupture history to better predict its future behavior. This paleoseismic investigation in Coachella, California, establishes a chronology of at least five and up to seven major earthquakes during the past ~1100 yr. This chronology yields a range of average recurrence intervals between 116 and 221 yr, depending on assumptions, with a best-estimate average recurrence interval of 180 yr. The most recent earthquake occurred c.1690, more than 300 yr ago, suggesting that this stretch of the fault has accumulated a large amount of tectonic stress and is likely to rupture in the near future, assuming the fault follows a stress renewal model. This study also establishes the timing of the past 5-6 highstands of ancient Lake Cahuilla since A.D. 800.We found that earthquakes do not tend to occur at any particular stage in the lake cycle.

California↗