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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources

USGS2005

How much is enough? The recurrent problem of setting measurable objectives in conservation

International agreements, environmental laws, resource management agencies, and environmental nongovernmental organizations all establish objectives that define what they hope to accomplish. Unfortunately, quantitative objectives in conservation are typically set without consistency and scientific rigor. As a result, conservationists are failing to provide credible answers to the question “How much is enough?” This is a serious problem because objectives profoundly shape where and how limited conservation resources are spent, and help to create a shared vision for the future. In this article we develop guidelines to help steer conservation biologists and practitioners through the process of objective setting. We provide three case studies to highlight the practical challenges of objective setting in different social, political, and legal contexts. We also identify crucial gaps in our science, including limited knowledge of species distributions and of large-scale, long-term ecosystem dynamics, that must be filled if we hope to do better than setting conservation objectives through intuition and best guesses.

BioScience↗

USGS2000

Use of lice to identify cowbird hosts

The host specificity of avian lice ( Phthiraptera ) may be utilized by biologists to investigate the brood parasitism patterns of Brown-headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ). As nestlings, brood parasites have a unique opportunity to encounter lice that are typically host specific. Lice are permanent hemimetabolic ectoparasites, a group found strictly on the body of the host, and they are transferred almost exclusively by bodily contact between hosts during care of young and at copulation. We investigated whether cowbird nestlings become infested with avian lice from their host parents and carry these lice away when they fledge, in effect bearing ectoparasite indicators of the species that raised them. The technique of examining the lice on cowbird fledglings to identify their foster parents would be much less costly than hiring a team of experts to determine parasitism patterns in the conventional way by finding hundreds of songbird nests. We examined 244 cowbird fledglings and found that they carried a rich fauna of lice representing 11 species and six genera, almost the entire spectrum of louse genera known to occur on passerines. We also examined 320 songbirds from 30 species, all known hosts of the Brown-headed Cowbird. As a group the host birds bore a diversity of louse species comparable to that on the fledgling cowbirds: 13 species of lice from seven genera. In contrast, most individual passerine host species yielded only 1 or 2 louse species, significantly fewer than the cowbird fledglings (p < 0.0001). Of 44 fledgling cowbirds carrying lice, 11 were linked to their probable avian foster parents via louse indicators, and these are the Wood Thrush and Red-winged Blackbird. Eighteen additional fledglings were linked to one of two possible foster parents. We concluded that cowbird fledglings do carry away host lice and this survey technique provides a partial assessment of local community parasitism patterns. The incomplete state of passerine louse taxonomy requires anyone using this technique to de-louse both cowbird fledglings and local host species in order to have a reference collection of lice. Lice from cowbird fledglings can be identified by a skilled taxonomist and linked to particular host species, and the principal difficulty is the scarcity of skilled avian louse taxonomists. We also found an unusually rich louse fauna on 219 adult cowbirds, which supports the interpretation that lack of opportunity due to physical isolation has been the fundamental factor in the host specificity of lice observed in certain avian orders.

The Auk↗

USGS2016

Walter Rowe Courtenay, Jr. (1933–2014)

WALTER R. COURTENAY, JR., ichthyologist and retired professor, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, died in Gainesville, Florida, on 30 January 2014 at age 80. Walt was born in Neenah, Wisconsin, on 6 November 1933, son of Walter and Emily Courtenay. Walt's interest in fish began at a young age as evidenced by a childhood diary in which at 13 years of age he wrote about his first catch—a two-and-a-half pound “pike” from Lake Winnebago. When Walt turned ten, the family moved from Wisconsin to Nashville, Tennessee, the move precipitated by his father accepting a position as pastor of the First Presbyterian Church. During those early days in Nashville, Walt's father would take summers off and travel to Michigan to teach at Camp Miniwanca along the shore of Lake Michigan where father and son honed their angling skills. It was also at that time Walt's father had definite views on what his son should be doing in adult life—in Walt's case it was to become a medical doctor. However, his Woods Hole internship in marine biology and oceanography toward the end of his undergraduate years was a transformative experience for him so much so that he abandoned all ideas of becoming a medical doctor and instead specialized in ichthyology and oceanography. Apart from the inherent interest and opportunities Woods Hole opened to him, being back at the shore of a large body of water, in this case the Atlantic Ocean, was far more interesting than sitting in lectures on organic chemistry. With that, Walt completed his B.A. degree at Vanderbilt University in 1956. In 1960 while in graduate school in Miami, Walt met and married Francine Saporito, and over the next several years had two children, Walter III and Catherine. He went on to receive his M.S. in 1961 from The Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami on the systematics of the genus Haemulon (grunts) and his Ph.D. degree in 1965 working under his advisor C. Richard “Dick” Robins, also at Miami, with his dissertation entitled “Atlantic Fishes of the Genus Rypticus (Grammistidae): Systematics and Osteology.” Dick and wife Catherine Robins, also a fellow biologist, thought of him as a great friend to have. They fondly recalled that those of us who knew Walt in his early grad student days valued his sense of humor and unmistakable laugh, much of which was directed at bureaucratic foolishness and pomposity. However, he also had a very serious side when it came to justice and responsibility.

Copeia↗

USGS2021

Effects of season, location, species, and sex on hematologic and plasma biochemical values and body mass in free-ranging Grebes (Aechmophorus species)

The effects of season, location, species, and sex on body weight and a comprehensive array of blood chemistry and hematology analytes were compared for free-ranging western ( Aechmophorus occidentalis ) and Clark's ( Aechmophorus clarkii ) grebes. Birds (n = 56) were collected from Puget Sound, WA, and Monterey Bay and San Francisco Bay, CA, from February 2007 to March 2011. The data supported generalization of observed ranges for most analytes across Aechmophoru s grebe metapopulations wintering on the Pacific coast. Notable seasonal and location effects were observed for packed cell volume (winter 6% greater than fall; winter California [CA] 5% greater than Washington [WA]), total white blood cell count (CA 3.57 × 10 3 cells/µL greater than WA), heterophils (WA 10% greater than CA), lymphocytes (winter 19% greater than fall), heterophil to lymphocyte ratio (fall 5.7 greater than winter), basophils (CA greater than WA), plasma protein (WA about 10 g/L [1.0 g/dL] greater than CA), plasma protein to fibrinogen ratio (winter about 15 greater than fall), potassium (CA 2 mmol/L greater than WA), and liver enzymes (alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase: WA greater than CA). Within California, season had a greater effect on body mass than sex (mean winter weights about 200 g greater than fall), whereas within a season, males weighed only about 80 g more than females, on average. These data give biologists and veterinarians quantitative reference values to better assess health at the individual and metapopulation level.

Washington, California↗

USGS2003

Morphological traits of Pacific Flyway Canada Geese as an aid to subspecies identification and management

Subspecies of Canada Geese ( Branta canadensis ) exhibit wide variation in body size across their range. To monitor harvest levels in the Pacific Flyway, biologists commonly use culmen length and plumage color to differentiate among subspecies on sympatric wintering grounds. Among the four large-bodied Pacific subspecies ( B. c. parvipes , B. c. occidentalis , B. c. fulva , and B. c. moffitti ), overlap in culmen length and subjectivity of visually assessing color results in misclassification and inaccurate harvest estimates. We examined the morphology of Pacific large-bodied Canada Geese to characterize body size variation among subspecies and provide more discriminatory measures for harvest assessments. We found that culmen length, one of the most commonly used field measures, overlapped widely among subspecies, and it had little support for inclusion in discriminatory models. Morphological measures with greater explanatory power included bill width at nail, bill width at base, head length, and mid wing. If culmen length and plumage color continue to be used to assess winter harvest, we recommend the addition of at least one sex-specific measurement to reduce levels of misclassification among subspecies. If an additional morphological measure is included, further evaluation on the wintering grounds should be conducted as this measure's effectiveness may vary depending upon observer bias, temporal and spatial variation in subspecies abundance, and the proportion of birds accurately sexed by cloacal examination.

Pacific Flyway↗

USGS2006

Demography, genetics, and the value of mixed messages

Iverson et al. (2004) used estimates of the homing rate for molting adult Harlequin Ducks ( Histrionicus histrionicus ) in Alaska to draw inferences about population structure. Homing rates, defined as one minus the ratio of birds recaptured elsewhere to those recaptured at the original banding site, were high (0.95–1.00) for males and females. Iverson et al. (2004) concluded that these high rates of homing are indicative of demographic independence among molting groups separated by small distances (tens to hundreds of kilometers) and that conservation efforts should recognize this fine-scale population structure. We re-examined their use of the homing rate, because their assumption of equal detection probability across a wide sampling area could have led to an upward bias in their estimates of site fidelity. As a result, we are hesitant to agree with their conclusion of high adult homing to molting areas and that molt-site fidelity is evidence for demographic independence. Our hesitancy stems from the fact that little is known about juvenile and adult movements within and among years, breeding area origins, and the variation of demographic parameters (e.g., survival and productivity) among molting groups. Furthermore, population genetic data of these molting groups suggest gene flow at both nuclear and mitochondrial loci. Such mixed messages between demographic (i.e., banding) and genetic data are increasingly common in ornithological studies and offer unique opportunities to reassess predictions and make more robust inferences about population structure across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, we stress that it is this broader scale perspective, which combines both demography and genetics, that biologists should seek to quantify and conservation efforts should seek to recognize.

Condor↗

USGS2019

Where has turtle ecology been, and where is it going?

Over 9000 articles have been published on turtles and tortoises (excluding sea turtles) since 1950 according to the Web of Science, including over 8000 contained in a personal bibliography that we analyze in this paper. Research had a slow start from 1900 to 1950, with mostly anecdotal additions to our knowledge until the contributions of F. Cagle and A. Carr took turtle research to new levels as the cofathers of turtle ecology in the middle of the last century. Books written in 1939, 1952, and 1972 that compiled existing literature on turtles in the United States and Canada set the stage for growing interest in turtles. The first global compilation of turtle species did not become available until 1961. Publication frequency increased in the 1960s and especially the 1970s as interest in turtles grew, and a wave of turtle biologists emerged from doctoral degree programs. We briefly review the contributions of scientists who published extensively on turtle ecology in those and later decades up to the present. We also review advances in our knowledge of various topics, including the global distribution of turtle research efforts; changes in our perceptions of turtle species diversity over time; turtle community ecology; sex ratios, sex-determination, and climate change; overwintering behavior; sexual size dimorphism and sexual dichromatism; analyses of population genetics; turtles and vocalization; and the emergence of turtle conservation biology efforts. We conclude with a discussion of future opportunities and challenges for working with turtles.

Herpetologica↗

USGS2025

Common Terns (Sterna hirundo) use of a staging site in the Chesapeake Bay

In 2021, we initiated fieldwork to assess the relative importance of a staging area for Sterna hirundo (Common Tern) at a pier at the confluence of the Patuxent River and Chesapeake Bay, MD. During the post-breeding periods of 2021 through 2023, we resighted 378 banded Common Terns at this staging area, with individuals originating from 6 breeding colonies. Most banded individuals were from Poplar Island, a major nesting site 50 km north of the pier, with up to 37% of that island's annual hatch-year population observed at this staging area. Additionally, biologists have previously observed staging terns at this site, suggesting these observations do not reflect a change in the species' behavior within the region. Cumulatively, our data suggest that this habitat acts as an important staging area for the Chesapeake Bay's Common Tern population, particularly for those nesting on Poplar Island.

Maryland↗

USGS2005

A Fall fur-hunt from Maine to New Brunswick, Canada: The 1858 journal of Manly Hardy

Ecologists, conservationists, and others increasingly ask questions that require a reliable understanding of natural conditions in the past. For example, when the US Fish and Wildlife Service proposed to list the Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) under the Federal Endangered Species Act, there was a need to know the historical status of this species in the northeastern US. The natural history writings of Manly Hardy, a successful, nineteenth-century businessman and respected amateur naturalist from Brewer, ME, proved useful in assessing the lynx's historical status. Because of the wide array of potential uses of Hardy's writings, the objective of this paper is to make biologists and other scholars aware of Hardy, especially his 15 surviving journals, 1852-1899. Hardy left the most extensive published record of any of the naturalists who wrote about wildlife in Maine from the late 1800s through the early 1900s. His articles and essays covered a wide range of subjects about a variety of bird and mammal species. A recently published biographical sketch of Hardy contains an annotated bibliography of his publications along with the republication of 14 of his mammalian works. In contrast, this article contains an example of his unpublished journal writing with significant wildlife observations.

Northeastern Naturalist↗

USGS2017

Life history attributes of Arizona Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum ammolegus) and comparisons with other North American subspecies

Ammodramus savannarum ammolegus —commonly referred to as the Arizona Grasshopper Sparrow—occurs in the desert and plains grasslands of southeastern Arizona, southwestern New Mexico, and northern Sonora, Mexico. Although a subspecies of conservation concern, this is the first intensive study of its life history and breeding ecology, providing baseline data and facilitating comparisons with other North American Grasshopper Sparrow subspecies. Specifically, I found A. s. ammolegus males generally weighed less than other subspecies (16.0 ± 0.8 g) but with intermediate exposed culmen length (11.6 ± 0.5 mm) and wing chord length similar to the other two migratory subspecies (62.7 ± 1.5 mm). Territory size for A. s. ammolegus was 0.72 ± 0.37 ha, with some variation between sites and among years, possibly indicating variation in habitat quality across spatial and temporal scales. The return rate for A. s. ammolegus males was 39.2%. Nest initiation for A. s. ammolegus was early to mid-July after the monsoons had begun. Domed nests were constructed on the ground, primarily under native bunch grasses, and frequently with a tunnel extending beyond the nest rim, with nest openings oriented north. Clutch size was 3.97 ± 0.68, with no evidence of Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ) nest parasitism. Extreme climate factors in the arid Southwest may have affected the life history and morphology of A. s. ammolegus as compared to other subspecies, influencing body size and mass, culmen length, breeding phenology, and nest orientation. Other geographic variation occurred in return rates, clutch size, and nest parasitism rates. The baseline data for A. s. ammolegus obtained in this study will inform future taxonomic and ecological studies as well as conservation planning. Comparisons of A. s. ammolegus morphometrics with those of other subspecies will assist field biologists in distinguishing among subspecies where they overlap, especially on wintering grounds.

Arizona↗

USGS2019

First examination of diet items consumed by wild-caught black carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus) in the U.S.

Black carp ( Mylopharyngodon piceus ) were imported to the U.S. in the 1970s to control snails in aquaculture ponds and have since escaped from captivity. The increase in captures of wild fish has raised concerns of risk to native and imperiled unionid mussels given previous literature classified this species a molluscivore. We acquired black carp from commercial fishers and biologists, and examined digestive contents of 109 fish captured over 8 y from lentic and lotic habitats in the central and southern U.S.A. Digestive tract contents were preserved, and diet items inventoried. We identified 59 aquatic animal taxa (21 mollusks, 27 insects, and 11 other invertebrates) and various plant material including nuts and seeds; no fish were found. Approximately 45% of stomachs examined were empty or only contained flukes (Trematoda) that had infected mollusks before they were ingested. Nonempty stomachs contained snails (16.5%), bivalve mussels (22.8%), and insect larvae (net-spinning caddisflies, 15.6%; burrowing mayflies, 6.4%; and midges, 13.7%). Fish also consumed freshwater sponges (Porifera), moss animals (Bryozoa), crustaceans (Ostracoda and Decapoda), water mites (Acarina), and three worm phyla (Nematoda, Nemertea, Annelida). Seven taxa of unionid mussels were identified from shell fragments among the fish we examined, all of which are found in habitats with soft mud or sand/silt substrates. Diet of fish captured in lentic environments contained significantly higher richness than those captured in lotic environments. Individual black carp often contained large numbers of only one or two diet items that were assumed locally abundant and did not always crush the shells of mollusks. Most fish we examined consumed benthic prey, which supports the classification of black carp as a benthic foraging species. However, the presence of other aquatic taxa associated with pelagic or subsurface zones suggests black carp are opportunistic in their consumption of diet items and flexible in their feeding modes.

The American Midland Naturalist↗

USGS2016

Distributions of small nongame fishes in the lower Yellowstone River

The Yellowstone River is the longest unimpounded river in the conterminous United States. It has a relatively natural flow regime, which helps maintain diverse habitats and fish assemblages uncommon in large rivers elsewhere. The lower Yellowstone River was thought to support a diverse nongame fish assemblage including several species of special concern. However, comprehensive data on the small nongame fish assemblage of the lower Yellowstone River is lacking. Therefore, we sampled the Yellowstone River downstream of its confluence with the Clark’s Fork using fyke nets and otter trawls to assess distributions and abundances of small nongame fishes. We captured 42 species (24 native and 18 nonnative) in the lower Yellowstone River with fyke nets. Native species constituted over 99% of the catch. Emerald shiners Notropis atherinoides , western silvery minnows Hybognathus argyritis , flathead chubs Platygobio gracilis , sand shiners Notropis stramineus , and longnose dace Rhinichthys cataractae composed nearly 94% of fyke net catch and were caught in every segment of the study area. We captured 24 species by otter trawling downstream of the Tongue River. Sturgeon chubs Macrhybopsis gelida , channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus , flathead chubs, stonecats Noturus flavus , and sicklefin chubs Macrhybopsis meeki composed 89% of the otter trawl catch. The upstream distributional limit of sturgeon chubs in the Yellowstone River was the Tongue River; few sicklefin chubs were captured above Intake Diversion Dam. This study not only provides biologists with baseline data for future monitoring efforts on the Yellowstone River but serves as a benchmark for management and conservation efforts in large rivers elsewhere as the Yellowstone River represents one of the best references for a naturally functioning Great Plains river.

Montana↗

USGS2017

Small high-definition video cameras as a tool to resight uniquely marked Interior Least Terns (Sternula antillarum athalassos)

Many bird species of conservation concern have behavioral or morphological traits that make it difficult for researchers to determine if the birds have been uniquely marked. Those traits can also increase the difficulty for researchers to decipher those markers. As a result, it is a priority for field biologists to develop time- and cost-efficient methods to resight uniquely marked individuals, especially when efforts are spread across multiple States and study areas. The Interior Least Tern ( Sternula antillarum athalassos ) is one such difficult-to-resight species; its tendency to mob perceived threats, such as observing researchers, makes resighting marked individuals difficult without physical recapture. During 2015, uniquely marked adult Interior Least Terns were resighted and identified by small, inexpensive, high-definition portable video cameras deployed for 29-min periods adjacent to nests. Interior Least Tern individuals were uniquely identified 84% (n = 277) of the time. This method also provided the ability to link individually marked adults to a specific nest, which can aid in generational studies and understanding heritability for difficult-to-resight species. Mark-recapture studies on such species may be prone to sparse encounter data that can result in imprecise or biased demographic estimates and ultimately flawed inferences. High-definition video cameras may prove to be a robust method for generating reliable demographic estimates.

Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2023

eDNA Metabarcoding Analyses of Diet in Yellow-Billed Loons of Northern Alaska

Environmental DNA is a burgeoning tool used to address wide-ranging scientific questions, including determining diets of difficult-to-sample predators. Loons are large piscivorous diving birds that capture and consume prey underwater, making it nearly impossible to visually determine their diet via observation alone. Identifying species' diets is important for understanding basic life history traits, and revealing key prey species can clarify species' roles in complex trophic webs, aid in understanding population and community dynamics, and help identify critical habitat for protection. Current information about loon diet is largely anecdotal, and traditional non-observational methods for quantifying loon diet have limitations. Analysis of eDNA from loon feces may provide biologists with a non-invasive technique for determining diet without negative sampling effects, and with increased resolution as compared to other techniques. We surveyed lakes in two areas of northern Alaska for Yellow-billed Loons ( Gavia adamsii ). Loon fecal samples were collected opportunistically from latrine sites without disturbing any animals and analyzed using novel marker sets to determine loon species and diet. Fish species were detected in all fecal samples, the most common being Alaska blackfish ( Dallia pectoralis ), and ninespine stickleback ( Pungitius pungitius ). This research demonstrates that eDNA metabarcoding analyses of loon fecal samples can determine the specific loon species that deposited the feces and characterize the piscine portion of their diet with limited disturbance to the animals.

Alaska↗

USGS1999

Exotic plant species invade hot spots of native plant diversity

Some theories and experimental studies suggest that areas of low plant species richness may be invaded more easily than areas of high plant species richness. We gathered nested-scale vegetation data on plant species richness, foliar cover, and frequency from 200 1-m 2 subplots (20 1000-m 2 modified-Whittaker plots) in the Colorado Rockies (USA), and 160 1-m 2 subplots (16 1000-m 2 plots) in the Central Grasslands in Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Minnesota (USA) to test the generality of this paradigm. At the 1-m 2 scale, the paradigm was supported in four prairie types in the Central Grasslands, where exotic species richness declined with increasing plant species richness and cover. At the 1-m 2 scale, five forest and meadow vegetation types in the Colorado Rockies contradicted the paradigm; exotic species richness increased with native-plant species richness and foliar cover. At the 1000-m 2 plot scale (among vegetation types), 83% of the variance in exotic species richness in the Central Grasslands was explained by the total percentage of nitrogen in the soil and the cover of native plant species. In the Colorado Rockies, 69% of the variance in exotic species richness in 1000-m 2 plots was explained by the number of native plant species and the total percentage of soil carbon. At landscape and biome scales, exotic species primarily invaded areas of high species richness in the four Central Grasslands sites and in the five Colorado Rockies vegetation types. For the nine vegetation types in both biomes, exotic species cover was positively correlated with mean foliar cover, mean soil percentage N, and the total number of exotic species. These patterns of invasibility depend on spatial scale, biome and vegetation type, spatial autocorrelation effects, availability of resources, and species-specific responses to grazing and other disturbances. We conclude that: (1) sites high in herbaceous foliar cover and soil fertility, and hot spots of plant diversity (and biodiversity), are invasible in many landscapes; and (2) this pattern may be more closely related to the degree resources are available in native plant communities, independent of species richness. Exotic plant invasions in rare habitats and distinctive plant communities pose a significant challenge to land managers and conservation biologists.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2003

Normality of raw data in general linear models: The most widespread myth in statistics

In years of statistical consulting for ecologists and wildlife biologists, by far the most common misconception we have come across has been the one about normality in general linear models. These comprise a very large part of the statistical models used in ecology and include t tests, simple and multiple linear regression, polynomial regression, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) and covariance (ANCOVA). There is a widely held belief that the normality assumption pertains to the raw data rather than to the model residuals. We suspect that this error may also occur in countless published studies, whenever the normality assumption is tested prior to analysis. This may lead to the use of nonparametric alternatives (if there are any), when parametric tests would indeed be appropriate, or to use of transformations of raw data, which may introduce hidden assumptions such as multiplicative effects on the natural scale in the case of log-transformed data. Our aim here is to dispel this myth. We very briefly describe relevant theory for two cases of general linear models to show that the residuals need to be normally distributed if tests requiring normality are to be used, such as t and F tests. We then give two examples demonstrating that the distribution of the response variable may be nonnormal, and yet the residuals are well behaved. We do not go into the issue of how to test normality; instead we display the distributions of response variables and residuals graphically.

Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America↗

USGS2009

Dynamic models for problems of species occurrence with multiple states

Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture–recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics.

Ecology↗

USGS2015

Assessing local population vulnerability to wind energy development with branching process models: an application to wind energy development

Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic development on local populations is important for conservation biology and wildlife management. However, these local populations are often subject to demographic stochasticity because of their small population size. Traditional modeling efforts such as population projection matrices do not consider this source of variation whereas individual-based models, which include demographic stochasticity, are computationally intense and lack analytical tractability. One compromise between approaches is branching process models because they accommodate demographic stochasticity and are easily calculated. These models are known within some sub-fields of probability and mathematical ecology but are not often applied in conservation biology and applied ecology. We applied branching process models to quantitatively compare and prioritize species locally vulnerable to the development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, we examined species vulnerability using branching process models for four representative species: A cave bat (a long-lived, low fecundity species), a tree bat (short-lived, moderate fecundity species), a grassland songbird (a short-lived, high fecundity species), and an eagle (a long-lived, slow maturation species). Wind turbine-induced mortality has been observed for all of these species types, raising conservation concerns. We simulated different mortality rates from wind farms while calculating local extinction probabilities. The longer-lived species types (e.g., cave bats and eagles) had much more pronounced transitions from low extinction risk to high extinction risk than short-lived species types (e.g., tree bats and grassland songbirds). High-offspring-producing species types had a much greater variability in baseline risk of extinction than the lower-offspring-producing species types. Long-lived species types may appear stable until a critical level of incidental mortality occurs. After this threshold, the risk of extirpation for a local population may rapidly increase with only minimal increases in wind mortality. Conservation biologists and wildlife managers may need to consider this mortality pattern when issuing take permits and developing monitoring protocols for wind facilities. We also describe how our branching process models may be generalized across a wider range of species for a larger assessment project and then describe how our methods may be applied to other stressors in addition to wind.

Ecosphere↗