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The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario— A story that southern Californians are writing

The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe the changes will be depends on the actions that individuals, schools, businesses, organizations, communities, and governments take to get ready. To help prepare for this event, scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have changed the way that earthquake scenarios are done, uniting a multidisciplinary team that spans an unprecedented number of specialties. The team includes the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and nearly 200 other partners in government, academia, emergency response, and industry, working to understand the long-term impacts of an enormous earthquake on the complicated social and economic interactions that sustain southern California society. This project, the ShakeOut Scenario, has applied the best current scientific understanding to identify what can be done now to avoid an earthquake catastrophe. More information on the science behind this project will be available in The ShakeOut Scenario (USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/). The 'what if?' earthquake modeled in the ShakeOut Scenario is a magnitude 7.8 on the southern San Andreas Fault. Geologists selected the details of this hypothetical earthquake by considering the amount of stored strain on that part of the fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking that would occur in this earthquake. Engineers and other professionals used the shaking to produce a realistic picture of this earthquake's damage to buildings, roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure. From these damages, social scientists projected casualties, emergency response, and the impact of the scenario earthquake on southern California's economy and society. The earthquake, its damages, and resulting losses are one realistic outcome, deliberately not a worst-case scenario, rather one worth preparing for and mitigating against. Decades of improving the life-safety requirements in building codes have greatly reduced the risk of death in earthquakes, yet southern California's economic and social systems are still vulnerable to large-scale disruptions. Because of this, the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake would dramatically alter the nature of the southern California community. Fortunately, steps can be taken now that can change that outcome and repay any costs many times over. The ShakeOut Scenario is the first public product of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, created to show how hazards science can increase a community's resiliency to natural disasters through improved planning, mitigation, and response.

California↗

Get your science used—Six guidelines to improve your products

Introduction Natural scientists, like many other experts, face challenges when communicating to people outside their fields of expertise. This is especially true when they try to communicate to those whose background, knowledge, and experience are far distant from that field of expertise. At a recent workshop, experts in risk communication offered insights into the communication challenges of probabilistic hazard products, suggested tips, and shared their strategies for making products that a targeted audience can understand and use. Although the workshop was held to broaden the understanding and use of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM), the workshop outcomes presented in this report can benefit anyone who develops products based on technical information. On the basis of research and practice into how people think, use tools, make decisions, and understand scientific/technical information, the social and behavioral scientists, marketers, and social-impact designers at the NSHM workshop provided remarkably consistent guidelines to develop successful science products, such as text, maps, and other products. In this report the guidelines are numbered for clarity, but they can be applied repeatedly, piecemeal, or out of order to fit each project and your resources.

Circular↗

Citizen scientists record novel leaf phenology of invasive shrubs in eastern U.S. forests

Invasive shrubs are an emergent concern in deciduous forests of eastern North America. Their extended leaf phenology (ELP) – earlier leaf emergence and later leaf off compared to native shrubs and the overstory canopy – can simultaneously provide photosynthetic benefits to invasive shrubs while negatively affecting native flora and fauna through providing novel understory shade when the overstory canopy is leafless. However, phenology varies geographically, and the degree to which ELP from local-scale studies applies across the range of forests experiencing shrub invasion is unknown. In partnership with the USA National Phenology Network, we developed a citizen science campaign to record broad patterns of species-specific ELP – an otherwise prohibitively large effort. Using 1,500 observations of 14 species spanning 4 years, we found that the difference in leaf phenology between native and invasive shrubs can exceed 77 days within a growing season, a gap that decreases with increasing latitude by 2.9 [1.6, 4.2] days per degree latitude in the spring, and 2.2 [0.6,1.9] in the fall. Geographic trends in ELP provide a context for interpreting local scale phenology research while bridging inconsistent findings between existing studies and can streamline management by targeting detection and removal of invasive shrubs with leaves while natives are dormant. Furthermore, even small changes to seasonal phenology can impact forest communities, especially if there is a differential response to climate cues by nativity. After exploring broad-scale environmental variables associated with leaf phenology, we find a similar correlation with pre-growing season warmth for native and invasive shrubs, but a different relationship with dormant chill days – a variable less frequently considered for modeling spring phenology for forest productivity.

Biological Invasions↗

Using bottom trawls to monitor subsurface water clarity in marine ecosystems

Biophysical processes that affect subsurface water clarity play a key role in ecosystem function. However, subsurface water clarity is poorly monitored in marine ecosystems because doing so requires in-situ sampling that is logistically difficult to conduct and sustain. Novel solutions are thus needed to improve monitoring of subsurface water clarity. To that end, we developed a sampling method and data processing algorithm that enable the use of bottom trawl fishing gear as a platform for conducting subsurface water clarity monitoring using trawl-mounted irradiance sensors without disruption to fishing operations. The algorithm applies quality control checks to irradiance measurements and calculates the downwelling diffuse attenuation coefficient, K d , and optical depth, ζ – apparent optical properties (AOPs) that characterize the rate of decrease in downwelling irradiance and relative irradiance transmission to depth, respectively. We applied our algorithm to irradiance measurements, obtained using bottom-trawl-mounted archival tags equipped with a photodiode collected during NOAA’s Alaska Fisheries Science Center annual summer bottom trawl surveys of the eastern Bering Sea continental shelf from 2004 to 2018. We validated our AOPs by quantitatively comparing surface-weighted K d from tags to the multi-sensor K d (490) product from the Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative project (OC-CCI) and qualitatively evaluating whether tag K d was consistent with patterns of subsurface chlorophyll-a concentrations predicted by a coupled regional physical-biological model (Bering10K-BESTNPZ). We additionally examined patterns and trends in water clarity in the eastern Bering Sea. Key findings are: 1) water clarity decreased significantly from 2004 to 2018; 2) a recurrent, pycnocline-associated, maximum in K d occurred over much of the northwestern shelf, putatively due to a subsurface chlorophyll maximum; and 3) a turbid bottom layer (nepheloid layer) was present over a large portion of the eastern Bering Sea shelf. Our study demonstrates that bottom trawls can provide a useful platform for monitoring water clarity, especially when trawling is conducted as part of a systematic stock assessment survey.

Alaska↗

A rapid procedure for the determination of thorium, uranium, cadmium and molybdenum in small sediment samples by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry: Application in Chesapeake Bay

This paper describes a rapid procedure that allows precise analysis of Mo, Cd, U and Th in sediment samples as small as 10 mg by using a novel approach that utilizes a "pseudo" isotope dilution for Th and conventional isotope dilution for Mo, Cd and U by ICP-MS. Long-term reproducibility of the method is between 2.5 and 5% with an advantage of rapid analysis on a single digestion of sediment sample and the potential of adding other elements of interest if so desired. Application of this method to two piston cores collected near the mouth of the Patuxent River in Chesapeake Bay showed that the accumulation of authigenic Mo and Cd varied in response to the changing bottom water redox conditions, with anoxia showing consistent oscillations throughout both pre-industrial and industrial times. Accumulation of authigenic U shows consistent oscillations as well, without any apparent increase in productivity related to anoxic trends. Degrees of Mo and Cd enrichment also inversely correlate to halophilic microfaunal assemblages already established as paleoclimate proxies within the bay indicating that bottom water anoxia is driven in part by the amount of freshwater discharge that the area receives. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applied Geochemistry↗

Inversion of high frequency surface waves with fundamental and higher modes

The phase velocity of Rayleigh-waves of a layered earth model is a function of frequency and four groups of earth parameters: compressional (P)-wave velocity, shear (S)-wave velocity, density, and thickness of layers. For the fundamental mode of Rayleigh waves, analysis of the Jacobian matrix for high frequencies (2-40 Hz) provides a measure of dispersion curve sensitivity to earth model parameters. S-wave velocities are the dominant influence of the four earth model parameters. This thesis is true for higher modes of high frequency Rayleigh waves as well. Our numerical modeling by analysis of the Jacobian matrix supports at least two quite exciting higher mode properties. First, for fundamental and higher mode Rayleigh wave data with the same wavelength, higher modes can "see" deeper than the fundamental mode. Second, higher mode data can increase the resolution of the inverted S-wave velocities. Real world examples show that the inversion process can be stabilized and resolution of the S-wave velocity model can be improved when simultaneously inverting the fundamental and higher mode data. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Applied Geophysics↗

Comparison of fate and transport of isoxaflutole to atrazine and metolachlor in 10 Iowa rivers

Isoxaflutole (IXF), a newer low application rate herbicide, was introduced for weed control in corn (Zea mays) to use as an alternative to widely applied herbicides such as atrazine. The transport of IXF in streamwater has not been well-studied. The fate and transport of IXF and two of its degradation products was studied in 10 Iowa rivers during 2004. IXF rapidly degrades to the herbicidally active diketonitrile (DKN), which degrades to a biologically inactive benzoic acid (BA) analogue. IXF was detected in only four, DKN in 56, and BA in 43 of 75 samples. The concentrations of DKN and BA were approximately 2 orders of magnitude less than those of the commonly detected triazine and acetamide herbicides and their degradation products. Concentrations of IXF, DKN, and BA were highest during the May through June postplanting period. The concentration ratio of BA/DKN was similar to the deethylatrazine/atrazine ratio with smaller ratios occurring during May and June. The relative temporal variation of DKN and BA was similar to that observed for atrazine and deethylatrazine. This study shows that low application rate herbicides can have similar temporal transport patterns in streamwater as compared to more widely applied herbicides but at lower concentrations.

Iowa↗

Time-lapse motion picture technique applied to the study of geological processes

Light-weight, battery-operated timers were built and coupled to 16-mm motion-picture cameras having apertures controlled by photoelectric cells. The cameras were placed adjacent to Emmons Glacier on Mount Rainier. The film obtained confirms the view that exterior time-lapse photography can be applied to the study of slow-acting geologic processes.

Washington↗

Seismic‐hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model ( Petersen et al. , 2016 ) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short‐term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014–2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground‐motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M 4 and M 4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b =1.0 rather than the full catalog with b =1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground‐shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high‐hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6 g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north‐central Texas near Dallas–Fort Worth. The chance of having levels of ground motions corresponding to modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) VI or greater earthquake shaking is 2%–12% per year in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas and New Madrid similar to the chance of damage at sites in high‐hazard portions of California caused by natural earthquakes. Hazard is also significant in the Raton basin of Colorado/New Mexico; north‐central Arkansas; Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas; and in a few other areas. Hazard probabilities are much lower (by about half or more) for exceeding MMI VII or VIII. Hazard is 3‐ to 10‐fold higher near some areas of active‐induced earthquakes than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), which did not consider induced earthquakes. This study in conjunction with the LandScan TM Database (2013) indicates that about 8 million people live in areas of active injection wells that have a greater than 1% chance of experiencing damaging ground shaking (MMI≥VI) in 2016. The final model has high uncertainty, and engineers, regulators, and industry should use these assessments cautiously to make informed decisions on mitigating the potential effects of induced and natural earthquakes.

Seismological Research Letters↗

The United States Geological Survey: A vision for the 21st century

Leadership in Earth science for sustained global health, welfare, and prosperity. We envision a U.S. Geological Survey that is a global leader in relevant, innovative, and interdisciplinary Earth science. We shall conduct collaborative, impartial, multi-scale scientific investigations into the Earth's systems and conditions through a spectrum of basic to applied research on the environment, hazards, resources, and information management, all in support of present and future societal needs. We envision an organization that serves the public by sharing Earthscience data and information and by promoting its dissemination, understanding, and application. We shall be a flexible organization that values its employees and works in concert with them for attainment of both institutional and individual goals.

Report↗

Geospatial Information Response Team

Extreme emergency events of national significance that include manmade and natural disasters seem to have become more frequent during the past two decades. The Nation is becoming more resilient to these emergencies through better preparedness, reduced duplication, and establishing better communications so every response and recovery effort saves lives and mitigates the long-term social and economic impacts on the Nation. The National Response Framework (NRF) (http://www.fema.gov/NRF) was developed to provide the guiding principles that enable all response partners to prepare for and provide a unified national response to disasters and emergencies. The NRF provides five key principles for better preparation, coordination, and response: 1) engaged partnerships, 2) a tiered response, 3) scalable, flexible, and adaptable operations, 4) unity of effort, and 5) readiness to act. The NRF also describes how communities, tribes, States, Federal Government, privatesector, and non-governmental partners apply these principles for a coordinated, effective national response. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has adopted the NRF doctrine by establishing several earth-sciences, discipline-level teams to ensure that USGS science, data, and individual expertise are readily available during emergencies. The Geospatial Information Response Team (GIRT) is one of these teams. The USGS established the GIRT to facilitate the effective collection, storage, and dissemination of geospatial data information and products during an emergency. The GIRT ensures that timely geospatial data are available for use by emergency responders, land and resource managers, and for scientific analysis. In an emergency and response capacity, the GIRT is responsible for establishing procedures for geospatial data acquisition, processing, and archiving; discovery, access, and delivery of data; anticipating geospatial needs; and providing coordinated products and services utilizing the USGS' exceptional pool of geospatial experts and equipment.

Fact Sheet↗

Advancing the science of microbial symbiosis to support invasive species management: a case study on Phragmites in the Great Lakes

A growing body of literature supports microbial symbiosis as a foundational principle for the competitive success of invasive plant species. Further exploration of the relationships between invasive species and their associated microbiomes, as well as the interactions with the microbiomes of native species, can lead to key new insights into invasive success and potentially new and effective control approaches. In this manuscript, we review microbial relationships with plants, outline steps necessary to develop invasive species control strategies that are based on those relationships, and use the invasive plant species Phragmites australis (common reed) as an example of how development of microbial-based control strategies can be enhanced using a collective impact approach. The proposed science agenda, developed by the Collaborative for Microbial Symbiosis and Phragmites Management, contains a foundation of sequential steps and mutually-reinforcing tasks to guide the development of microbial-based control strategies for Phragmites and other invasive species. Just as the science of plant-microbial symbiosis can be transferred for use in other invasive species, so too can the model of collective impact be applied to other avenues of research and management.

Frontiers in Microbiology↗

Temporal species richness-biomass relationships along successional gradients

Diversity-biomass relationships are frequently reported to be hump-shaped over space at a given time. However, it is not yet clear how diversity and biomass change simultaneously and how they are related to each other over time (e.g. in succession) at one locality. This study develops a temporal model based on the projected changes of various community variables in a generalized terrestrial environment after fire and uses post-fire succession data on Santa Monica Mountains of southern California and other published succession data to examine the temporal diversity-biomass relationships. The results indicate that in the early stages of succession, both diversity and biomass increase and a positive relationship appears, while in the late stages of succession, biomass continued to increase but diversity usually declines; thus a negative relationship may be observed. When the scales of measurement become sufficiently large so that the measured diversity and biomass cross various stages of succession, a 'hump-shaped' relationship can emerge. The diversity-biomass relationship appears to be concordant in space and time when appropriate scales are used. Formerly proposed explanations for spatial patterns may well apply to the temporal patterns (particularly colonization, facilitation and competitive exclusion).

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

Temporal species richness-biomass relationships along successional gradients

Diversity-biomass relationships are frequently reported to be hump-shaped over space at a given time. However, it is not yet clear how diversity and biomass change simultaneously and how they are related to each other overtime (e.g. in succession) at one locality. This study develops a temporal model based on the projected changes of various community variables in a generalized terrestrial environment after fire and uses post-fire succession data on Santa Monica Mountains of southern California and other published succession data to examine the temporal diversity-biomass relationships. The results indicate that in the early stages of succession, both diversity and biomass increase and a positive relationship appears, while in the late stages of succession, biomass continued to increase but diversity usually declines; thus a negative relationship may be observed. When the scales of measurement become sufficiently large so that the measured diversity and biomass cross various stages of succession, a 'hump-shaped' relationship can emerge. The diversity-biomass relationship appears to be concordant in space and time when appropriate scales are used. Formerly proposed explanations for spatial patterns may well apply to the temporal patterns (particularly colonization, facilitation and competitive exclusion).

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

Science in support of the Deepwater Horizon response

This introduction to the Special Feature presents the context for science during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response, summarizes how scientific knowledge was integrated across disciplines and statutory responsibilities, identifies areas where scientific information was accurate and where it was not, and considers lessons learned and recommendations for future research and response. Scientific information was integrated within and across federal and state agencies, with input from nongovernmental scientists, across a diverse portfolio of needs—stopping the flow of oil, estimating the amount of oil, capturing and recovering the oil, tracking and forecasting surface oil, protecting coastal and oceanic wildlife and habitat, managing fisheries, and protecting the safety of seafood. Disciplines involved included atmospheric, oceanographic, biogeochemical, ecological, health, biological, and chemical sciences, physics, geology, and mechanical and chemical engineering. Platforms ranged from satellites and planes to ships, buoys, gliders, and remotely operated vehicles to laboratories and computer simulations. The unprecedented response effort depended directly on intense and extensive scientific and engineering data, information, and advice. Many valuable lessons were learned that should be applied to future events.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

Foundations of translational ecology

Ecologists who specialize in translational ecology (TE) seek to link ecological knowledge to decision making by integrating ecological science with the full complement of social dimensions that underlie today's complex environmental issues. TE is motivated by a search for outcomes that directly serve the needs of natural resource managers and decision makers. This objective distinguishes it from both basic and applied ecological research and, as a practice, it deliberately extends research beyond theory or opportunistic applications. TE is uniquely positioned to address complex issues through interdisciplinary team approaches and integrated scientist–practitioner partnerships. The creativity and context‐specific knowledge of resource managers, practitioners, and decision makers inform and enrich the scientific process and help shape use‐driven, actionable science. Moreover, addressing research questions that arise from on‐the‐ground management issues – as opposed to the top‐down or expert‐oriented perspectives of traditional science – can foster the high levels of trust and commitment that are critical for long‐term, sustained engagement between partners.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Worldwide standardized seismograph network

A global network of seismographs is as indispensable to seismologists as telescopes are to astronomers. The network is used to catalog the thousands of earthquakes that occur each year and to provide the data needed for detailed studies of earthquake mechanisms, deep Earth structure, and tectonic processes. Like astronomy, seismology is an observational science, and most of the scientific advances have been preceded by improvements in instrument technology. To be useful for seismic studies, new technology must be applied on a global scale. During the past two decades, there has been notable success in meeting this objective. The network that exists today (fig. 1) is a vital scientific resource. Continued innovations and improvements are needed to insure that its keeps pace with the data needs of the seismological community.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗