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Shallow groundwater quality and geochemistry in the Fayetteville Shale gas-production area, north-central Arkansas, 2011

The Mississippian Fayetteville Shale serves as an unconventional gas reservoir across north-central Arkansas, ranging in thickness from approximately 50 to 550 feet and varying in depth from approximately 1,500 to 6,500 feet below the ground surface. Primary permeability in the Fayetteville Shale is severely limited, and successful extraction of the gas reservoir is the result of advances in horizontal drilling techniques and hydraulic fracturing to enhance and develop secondary fracture porosity and permeability. Drilling and production of gas wells began in 2004, with a steady increase in production thereafter. As of April 2012, approximately 4,000 producing wells had been completed in the Fayetteville Shale. In Van Buren and Faulkner Counties, 127 domestic water wells were sampled and analyzed for major ions and trace metals, with a subset of the samples analyzed for methane and carbon isotopes to describe general water quality and geochemistry and to investigate the potential effects of gas-production activities on shallow groundwater in the study area. Water-quality analyses from this study were compared to historical (pregas development) shallow groundwater quality collected in the gas-production area. An additional comparison was made using analyses from this study of groundwater quality in similar geologic and topographic areas for well sites less than and greater than 2 miles from active gas-production wells. Chloride concentrations for the 127 groundwater samples collected for this study ranged from approximately 1.0 milligram per liter (mg/L) to 70 mg/L, with a median concentration of 3.7 mg/L, as compared to maximum and median concentrations for the historical data of 378 mg/L and 20 mg/L, respectively. Statistical analysis of the data sets revealed statistically larger chloride concentrations (p-value <0.001) in the historical data compared to data collected for this study. Chloride serves as an important indicator parameter based on its conservative transport characteristics and relatively elevated concentrations in production waters associated with gas extraction activities. Major ions and trace metals additionally had lower concentrations in data gathered for this study than in the historical analyses. Additionally, no statistical difference existed between chloride concentrations from water-quality data collected for this study from 94 wells located less than 2 miles from a gas-production well and 33 wells located 2 miles or more from a gas-production well; a Wilcoxon rank-sum test showed a p-value of 0.71. Major ion chemistry was investigated to understand the effects of geochemical and reduction-oxidation (redox) processes on the shallow groundwater in the study area along a continuum of increased rock-water interaction represented by increases in dissolved solids concentration. Groundwater in sandstone formations is represented by a low dissolved solids concentration (less than 30 mg/L) and slightly acidic water type. Shallow shale aquifers were represented by dissolved solids concentrations ranging upward to 686 mg/L, and water types evolving from a dominantly mixed-bicarbonate and calcium-bicarbonate to a strongly sodium-bicarbonate water type. Methane concentration and carbon isotopic composition were analyzed in 51 of the 127 samples collected for this study. Methane occurred above a detection limit of 0.0002 mg/L in 32 of the 51 samples, with concentrations ranging upward to 28.5 mg/L. Seven samples had methane concentrations greater than or equal to 0.5 mg/L. The carbon isotopic composition of these higher concentration samples, including the highest concentration of 28.5 mg/L, shows the methane was likely biogenic in origin with carbon isotope ratio values ranging from -57.6 to -74.7 per mil. Methane concentrations increased with increases in dissolved solids concentrations, indicating more strongly reducing conditions with increasing rock-water interaction in the aquifer. As such, groundwater-quality data collected for this study indicate that groundwater chemistry in the shallow aquifer system in the study area is a result of natural processes, beginning with recharge of dilute atmospheric precipitation and evolution of observed groundwater chemistry through rock-water interaction and redox processes.

Arkansas

Practical guidance for engaging end-users and experts in developing scientific tools

This report provides actionable guidance for scientists developing scientific tools that inform on-the-ground decision making. Scientific tools, in the context of this report, are technology or protocols that help practitioners collect and analyze their own data, and information products and web tools that practitioners could use to inform decisions. Engaging end-users and fellow experts is fundamental to the creation of useful scientific tools. Scientists can use clear and specific direction on action steps and activities to effectively engage with end-users and fellow experts during development. Our study explores lessons learned from six U.S. Geological Survey projects that designed and implemented engagement activities with end-users and experts to coproduce scientific tools for natural resource managers. U.S. Geological Survey teams engaged end-users and experts across the United States from Federal, State, and local governments; universities; Tribes; territories; and nongovernmental organizations in designing and developing scientific tools intended to support end-users in their work. An online survey with 98 participants measured satisfaction across several indicators of successful engagement, including engagement activity frequency, sufficient opportunities to provide feedback, feedback implementation, inclusion of necessary perspectives, and functionality of the tool for end-users. Semistructured interviews were held with project leads, during which the project leads reviewed a summary of the survey results. The project leads reflected on the engagement efforts used in their project, then described lessons learned from the engagement experience and participant feedback. Common themes for ensuring effective engagement identified through thematic analysis included engaging end-users during product conceptualization; establishing clear roles and expectations; considering who end-users are and how end-users may use the tool; recruiting participants through your network, boundary spanners, and leadership; understanding individual use cases; communicating how feedback was integrated into the product; and strategically using virtual meeting tools. This guide shares practical steps and exercises for planning and facilitating effective engagement based on lessons learned from project leads and case study summaries of each project.

Scientific Investigations Report

Recommendations for a barrier island breach management plan for Fire Island National Seashore, including the Otis Pike High Dune Wilderness Area, Long Island, New York

The U.S Army Corps of Engineers, New York District is developing engineering plans, including economic costs and benefits, for storm damage reduction along an 83 mile stretch of the coastal barrier islands and beaches on the south shore of Long Island, NY from Fire Island Inlet east to the Montauk Point headland. The plan, expected to include various alternatives for storm protection and erosion mitigation, is referred to as the Fire Island to Montauk Point Reformulation Plan (FIMP). These plans are expected to follow the Corps of Engineers’ Environmental Operating Principles striving for long term environmental sustainability and balance between environmental protection and protection of human health and property. Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS), a 19,579 acre unit of the National Park System includes a 32 mile long coastal barrier island located within the FIMP project area. A seven-mile section of the park, Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness Area, is also a designated Federal Wilderness Area. The FIIS includes not only the barrier island and sand dunes, but also several islands, sand flats and wetlands landward of the barrier, submerged parts of Great South Bay shoreface, extending approximately 4,000 feet into the bay with the inner shelf region extending approximately 1,000 feet seaward of the Fire Island shoreline. The Fire Island barrier islands, a sand-starved system dominated by highly dynamic processes, are struggling to maintain their integrity in the face of sea-level rise and storms. Adding to the dilemma is that development on the barriers and the mainland has increased greatly during the past 50 years. As such, managers and decision makers in federal agencies, state agencies and local governments are challenged to balance tradeoffs between protection of lives and property, public access and long term conservation of natural habitats and processes and the plants and animals that depend on these habitats. National Park Service (NPS) policy stipulates that natural coastal processes be maintained to the greatest extent possible and not be impeded so as to conserve landforms, habitats and natural ecosystem resources that reply on the landforms and processes for long-term sustainability of the national park. Storms and associated processes such as waves, tides, currents and relative sea-level change are critical elements for the formation and evolution of these barrier islands, sand dunes, back-barrier sand flats and lagoons and vegetated wetlands. Processes such as wave run-up, overwash and barrier beaching, which occur during elevated storm surge are all necessary processes in enabling the efficient transfer of sediments, nutrients and marine water from the Atlantic Ocean across barriers and into Great South Bay. A large body of scientific data and information published over the past 50 years shows that such transfers of sediment and water from the ocean to the bays are essential for the long-term maintenance of the barrier island and back-bay systems and their biologically diverse habitats an d ecosystems. Current relative sea-level rise (~12 in/century) is chronic and pervasive in driving Long Island coastal change and with the likelihood of accelerating sea level rise in the near future, coastal hazards such as erosion, inundation, and storm surge flooding will increase, with corresponding increased risk to life and property on both Fire Island and on the mainland. In addition, the cumulative effects over the past century and more, both direct and indirect, of human impacts on the Long Island coast have altered the barrier beach and dunes and sediment transport processes. These impacts have likely increased the potential for breaching and increased risk to life and property on the coast and the mainland. Examples of direct impacts are: the stone jetties at Moriches, Shinnecock, and Fire Island tidal inlets and groin field structures at Westhampton that alter littoral processes, armoring and erosion-control stabilization of the headlandds such as the Montauk Point headlands, and deepening of navigation channels by dredging through the tidal inlets and in the bays. Indirect impacts that have a bearing on decisions to deal with breaching are: high-risk development of the barrier islands and low-lying areas of the mainland vulnerable to flooding, and the dredging of nearshore sand shoals for beach nourishment. The NPS strives to employ a coastal management framework for decision making that is based on assessment of the physical and ecological properties of the shoreline as well as human welfare and property. In order to protect developed areas of Fire Island and the mainland from loss of life, flooding, and other economic and physical damage, the NPS will likely need to consider allowing artificial closure of some breaches within the FIIS under certain circumstances. The decision by the NPS to allow breaches to evolve naturally and possibly close or to allow artificially closing breaches is based on four criteria: 1. Volumes of sediment transported landward and exchange of water and nutrients; 2. Elevated water levels and flooding risk to mainland life and property; 3. Engineering processes of artificial closure; and 4. Economic costs and benefits of artificial closure. This report for breach management presents protocols which specify when breach closures within the FIIS might be desirable and necessary, as well as provides recommendations for structural breach closure engineering operations which are indented to minimize negative impacts to the natural wilderness values and cultural resources within the FIIS, particularly the Otis Pike Wilderness Area. The goal of the plan is to strike a balance between protecting natural resources and allowing natural processes to operate and avoiding loss of life and excessive property damage.

New York

Doublethink and scale mismatch polarize policies for an invasive tree

Mismatches between invasive species management policies and ecological knowledge can lead to profound societal consequences. For this reason, natural resource agencies have adopted the scientifically-based density-impact invasive species curve to guide invasive species management. We use the density-impact model to evaluate how well management policies for a native invader ( Juniperus virginiana ) match scientific guidelines. Juniperus virginiana invasion is causing a sub-continental regime shift from grasslands to woodlands in central North America, and its impacts span collapses in endemic diversity, heightened wildfire risk, and crashes in grazing land profitability. We (1) use land cover data to identify the stage of Juniperus virginiana invasion for three ecoregions within Nebraska, USA, (2) determine the range of invasion stages at individual land parcel extents within each ecoregion based on the density-impact model, and (3) determine policy alignment and mismatches relative to the density-impact model in order to assess their potential to meet sustainability targets and avoid societal impacts as Juniperus virginiana abundance increases. We found that nearly all policies evidenced doublethink and policy-ecology mismatches, for instance, promoting spread of Juniperus virginiana regardless of invasion stage while simultaneously managing it as a native invader in the same ecoregion. Like other invasive species, theory and literature for this native invader indicate that the consequences of invasion are unlikely to be prevented if policies fail to prioritize management at incipient invasion stages. Theory suggests a more realistic approach would be to align policy with the stage of invasion at local and ecoregion management scales. There is a need for scientists, policy makers, and ecosystem managers to move past ideologies governing native versus non-native invader classification and toward a framework that accounts for the uniqueness of native species invasions, their anthropogenic drivers, and their impacts on ecosystem services.

Nebraska

The insignificance of statistical significance testing

Despite their use in scientific journals such as The Journal of Wildlife Management , statistical hypothesis tests add very little value to the products of research. Indeed, they frequently confuse the interpretation of data. This paper describes how statistical hypothesis tests are often viewed, and then contrasts that interpretation with the correct one. I discuss the arbitrariness of P-values, conclusions that the null hypothesis is true, power analysis, and distinctions between statistical and biological significance. Statistical hypothesis testing, in which the null hypothesis about the properties of a population is almost always known a priori to be false, is contrasted with scientific hypothesis testing, which examines a credible null hypothesis about phenomena in nature. More meaningful alternatives are briefly outlined, including estimation and confidence intervals for determining the importance of factors, decision theory for guiding actions in the face of uncertainty, and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and other statistical practices.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Olympic Fisher Reintroduction Project: Progress report 2008-2011

This progress report summarizes the final year of activities of Phase I of the Olympic fisher restoration project. The intent of the Olympic fisher reintroduction project is to reestablish a self-sustaining population of fishers on the Olympic Peninsula. To achieve this goal, the Olympic fisher reintroduction project released 90 fishers within Olympic National Park from 2008 to 2010. The reintroduction of fishers to the Olympic Peninsula was designed as an adaptive management project, including the monitoring of released fishers as a means to (1) evaluate reintroduction success, (2) investigate key biological and ecological traits of fishers, and (3) inform future reintroduction, monitoring, and research efforts. This report summarizes reintroduction activities and preliminary research and monitoring results completed through December 2011. The report is non-interpretational in nature. Although we report the status of movement, survival, and home range components of the research, we have not completed final analyses and interpretation of research results. Much of the data collected during the monitoring and research project will be analyzed and interpreted in the doctoral dissertation being developed by Jeff Lewis; the completion of this dissertation is anticipated prior to April 2013. We anticipate that this work, and analyses of other data collected during the project, will result in several peer-reviewed scientific publications in ecological and conservation journals, which collectively will comprise the final reporting of work summarized here. These publications will include papers addressing post-release movements, survival, resource selection, food habits, and age determination of fishers.

Report

Compilation and assessment of resource values and hazards to inform transportation planning and associated land-use planning

Land-use planning has an important role in local, regional, State, and Federal land management, and planning efforts can benefit from consistent, spatially explicit information that can help guide priorities and decisions. The credibility and relevance of information used to inform planning activities depends on the availability of consistent information about the resources and values of interest or concern within the planning area. To support long-range transportation planning and other regional land-use planning efforts, the U.S. Geological Survey gathered, processed, interpreted, and compiled spatial datasets representing a wide range of information on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem condition and importance, cultural (historical) features and places, and natural hazards. This report describes the spatial data compiled to represent natural landscape conditions (including social, cultural, and natural attributes) to estimate the potential importance of lands for wildlife, wild habitats, recreation, and conservation based on abundance of species, habitats, land and water conditions, and conservation designations. Abundance of resources, including the potential number of species, presence of important habitats and protected areas, and proximity to particular features or habitats, indicates the potential sensitivity of the natural landscape to land use, especially transportation networks. The source data, derived indices, and the methods for processing these data are described in this final report. The datasets referenced in the report are available from the U.S. Geological Survey ( https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/ and https://doi.org/10.5066/F7MW2F8W ) or the Central Federal Lands Highway Division of the Office of Federal Lands Highway ( https://flh.fhwa.dot.gov ).

Scientific Investigations Report

Geologic map and structure sections along the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and adjacent areas from Cache Creek to Lake Berryessa, northern Coast Ranges, California

Introduction Located in the Coast Ranges of northern California, the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone is the easternmost fault in the San Andreas Fault system in northern California. The fault is a right-lateral, strike-slip structure considered capable of producing an earthquake of moment magnitude 7. The purpose of this mapping is to better characterize the geology and earthquake hazards associated with the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and to help identify any evidence of active uplift on the faults bounding the Coast Ranges. Although the area immediately surrounding the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone is sparsely populated, its southern segment presents a potential seismic hazard to northern California communities as far away as the San Francisco Bay region and Sacramento. There are also nearby water resources, mineral resources, and public lands used for public recreation. The Coast Ranges of northern California are a series of northwest-southeast-oriented mountain ranges and valleys located north of the San Francisco Bay region, between the Pacific Ocean to the west and the Sacramento Valley to the east. The region has rugged terrain, high mountain peaks that reach more than 2,400 meters above sea level, isolated and narrow valley bottoms on which most human settlements are located, and large drainage systems that tend to follow the northwest-southeast-oriented topographic grain. The physiographic character of the region is shaped by its bedrock geology, deformational history, and active faulting. The basement rocks of the northern Coast Ranges consist of the Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex, the latter of which consists of two informal units, the Coast Range ophiolite and the Great Valley sequence. The Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex are in structural contact along the Coast Range Fault, a regional-scale structure and fundamental crustal boundary. The Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex are superposed by active, northwest-southeast-striking strike-slip faults that are associated with seismicity swarms. These active strike-slip faults can produce moderate to large earthquakes that have moment magnitudes of 7–8. In places, these active structures bound large ranges and valleys, suggesting that much of the modern topographic expression is the result of active deformation processes. This report contains new 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping along the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone between Clear Lake and Lake Berryessa. The map area spans 738 square kilometers in northern Napa County, southern Lake County, and parts of Yolo and Colusa Counties. The south and east borders of the map are 90 kilometers north of San Francisco and 70 kilometers west of Sacramento, respectively. The map area is within the Knoxville mining district, which has a history of mercury and gold mining dating back to the mid-19th century. The two main towns in the region, Lower Lake and Clearlake, California, are west-northwest of the map area. Approximately 71,000 people live in the cities and rural communities located within a 40-kilometer radius of the center of the map area. The bedrock geology, cross sections, and structural data presented herein are critical for evaluating the long-term evolution of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone. This work will supplement studies on local seismic hazards, liquefaction potential, landslide hazards, earthquake geology, natural resources, groundwater resources, engineering geology, and tectonic history by providing the background information for site-specific investigations on these subjects.

California

Water-quality data from 2002 to 2003 and analysis of data gaps for development of total maximum daily loads in the Lower Klamath River Basin, California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected water-quality data during 2002 and 2003 in the Lower Klamath River Basin, in northern California, to support studies of river conditions as they pertain to the viability of Chinook and Coho salmon and endangered suckers. To address the data needs of the North Coast Regional Water Quality Control Board for the development of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs), water temperature, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and pH were continuously monitored at sites on the Klamath, Trinity, Shasta, and Lost Rivers. Water-quality samples were collected and analyzed for selected nutrients, organic carbon, chlorophyll-a, pheophytin-a, and trace elements. Sediment oxygen demand was measured on the Shasta River. Results of analysis of the data collected were used to identify locations in the Lower Klamath River Basin and periods of time during 2002 and 2003 when river conditions were more likely to be detrimental to salmonid or sucker health because of occasional high water temperatures, low dissolved oxygen, and conditions that supported abundant populations of algae and aquatic plants. The results were also used to assess gaps in data by furthering the development of the conceptual model of water flow and quality in the Lower Klamath River Basin using available data and the current understanding of processes that affect water quality and by assessing needs for the develoment of mathematical models of the system. The most notable gap in information for the study area is in sufficient knowledge about the occurrence and productivity of algal communities. Other gaps in data include vertical water-quality profiles for the reservoirs in the study area, and in an adequate understanding of the chemical oxygen demands and the sediment oxygen demands in the rivers and of the influence of riparian shading on the rivers. Several mathematical models are discussed in this report for use in characterizing the river systems in the study area; also discussed are the specific data needed for the models, and the spatial and temporal data available as boundary conditions. The models will be useful for the future development of TMDLs for temperature, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen and for assessing the role of natural and anthropogenic sources of heat, oxygen-producing and -consuming substances, and nutrients in the Klamath, Shasta, and Lost Rivers.

Scientific Investigations Report

Natural gases in ground water near Tioga Junction, Tioga County, north-central Pennsylvania: Occurrence and use of isotopes to determine origins, 2005

In January 2001, State oil and gas inspectors noted bubbles of natural gas in well water during a complaint investigation near Tioga Junction, Tioga County, north-central Pa. By 2004, the gas occurrence in ground water and accumulation in homes was a safety concern; inspectors were taking action to plug abandoned gas wells and collect gas samples. The origins of the natural-gas problems in ground water were investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, in wells throughout an area of about 50 mi2, using compositional and isotopic characteristics of methane and ethane in gas and water wells. This report presents the results for gas-well and water-well samples collected from October 2004 to September 2005. Ground water for rural-domestic supply and other uses near Tioga Junction is from two aquifer systems in and adjacent to the Tioga River valley. An unconsolidated aquifer of outwash sand and gravel of Quaternary age underlies the main river valley and extends into the valleys of tributaries. Fine-grained lacustrine sediments separate shallow and deep water-bearing zones of the outwash. Outwash-aquifer wells are seldom deeper than 100 ft. The river-valley sediments and uplands adjacent to the valley are underlain by a fractured-bedrock aquifer in siliciclastic rocks of Paleozoic age. Most bedrock-aquifer wells produce water from the Lock Haven Formation at depths of 250 ft or less. A review of previous geologic investigations was used to establish the structural framework and identify four plausible origins for natural gas. The Sabinsville Anticline, trending southwest to northeast, is the major structural feature in the Devonian bedrock. The anticline, a structural trap for a reservoir of deep native gas in the Oriskany Sandstone (Devonian) (origin 1) at depths of about 3,900 ft, was explored and tapped by numerous wells from 1930-60. The gas reservoir in the vicinity of Tioga Junction, depleted of native gas, was converted to the Tioga gas-storage field for injection and withdrawal of non-native gases (origin 2). Devonian shale gas (shallow native gas) also has been reported in the area (origin 3). Gas might also originate from microbial degradation of buried organic material in the outwash deposits (origin 4). An inventory of combustible-gas concentrations in headspaces of water samples from 91 wells showed 49 wells had water containing combustible gases at volume fractions of 0.1 percent or more. Well depth was a factor in the observed occurrence of combustible gas for the 62 bedrock wells inventoried. As well-depth range increased from less than 50 ft to 51-150 ft to greater than 151 ft, the percentage of bedrock-aquifer wells with combustible gas increased. Wells with high concentrations of combustible gas occurred in clusters; the largest cluster was near the eastern boundary of the gas-storage field. A subsequent detailed gas-sampling effort focused on 39 water wells with the highest concentrations of combustible gas (12 representing the outwash aquifer and 27 from the bedrock aquifer) and 8 selected gas wells. Three wells producing native gas from the Oriskany Sandstone and five wells (two observation wells and three injection/withdrawal wells) with non-native gas from the gas-storage field were sampled twice. Chemical composition, stable carbon and hydrogen isotopes of methane (13CCH4 and DCH4), and stable carbon isotopes of ethane (13CC2H6) were analyzed. No samples could be collected to document the composition of microbial gas originating in the outwash deposits (outwash or 'drift' gas) or of native natural gas originating solely in Devonian shale at depths shallower than the Oriskany Sandstone, although two of the storage-field observation wells sampled reportedly yielded some Devonian shale gas. Literature values for outwash or 'drift' gas and Devonian shale gases were used to supplement the data collection. Non-native gases fr

Pennsylvania

Groundwater resources of the Devils Postpile National Monument—Current conditions and future vulnerabilities

This study presents an extensive database on groundwater conditions in and around Devils Postpile National Monument. The database contains chemical analyses of springs and the monument water-supply well, including major-ion chemistry, trace element chemistry, and the first information on a list of organic compounds known as emerging contaminants. Diurnal, seasonal, and annual variations in groundwater discharge and chemistry are evaluated from data collected at five main monitoring sites, where streams carry the aggregate flow from entire groups of springs. These springs drain the Mammoth Mountain area and, during the fall months, contribute a significant fraction of the San Joaquin River flow within the monument. The period of this study, from fall 2012 to fall 2015, includes some of the driest years on record, though the seasonal variability observed in 2013 might have been near normal. The spring-fed streams generally flowed at rates well below those observed during a sequence of wet years in the late 1990s. However, persistence of flow and reasonably stable water chemistry through the recent dry years are indicative of a sizeable groundwater system that should provide a reliable resource during similar droughts in the future. Only a few emerging contaminants were detected at trace levels below 1 microgram per liter (μg/L), suggesting that local human visitation is not degrading groundwater quality. No indication of salt from the ski area on the north side of Mammoth Mountain could be found in any of the groundwaters. Chemical data instead show that natural mineral water, such as that discharged from local soda springs, is the main source of anomalous chloride in the monument supply well and in the San Joaquin River. The results of the study are used to develop a set of recommendations for future monitoring to enable detection of deleterious impacts to groundwater quality and quantity

California

Measuring currents in submarine canyons: technological and scientific progress in the past 30 years

The development and application of acoustic and optical technologies and of accurate positioning systems in the past 30 years have opened new frontiers in the submarine canyon research communities. This paper reviews several key advancements in both technology and science in the field of currents in submarine canyons since the1979 publication of Currents in Submarine Canyons and Other Sea Valleys by Francis Shepard and colleagues. Precise placements of high-resolution, high-frequency instruments have not only allowed researchers to collect new data that are essential for advancing and generalizing theories governing the canyon currents, but have also revealed new natural phenomena that challenge the understandings of the theorists and experimenters in their predictions of submarine canyon flow fields. Baroclinic motions at tidal frequencies, found to be intensified both up canyon and toward the canyon floor, dominate the flow field and control the sediment transport processes in submarine canyons. Turbidity currents are found to frequently occur in active submarine canyons such as Monterey Canyon. These turbidity currents have maximum speeds of nearly 200 cm/s, much smaller than the speeds of turbidity currents in geological time, but still very destructive. In addition to traditional Eulerian measurements, Lagrangian flow data are essential in quantifying water and sediment transport in submarine canyons. A concerted experiment with multiple monitoring stations along the canyon axis and on nearby shelves is required to characterize the storm-trigger mechanism for turbidity currents.

Geosphere

Evaluating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to bats in the context of wildlife research, rehabilitation, and control

Preventing wildlife disease outbreaks is a priority for natural resource agencies, and management decisions can be urgent, especially in epidemic circumstances. With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, wildlife agencies were concerned whether the activities they authorize might increase the risk of viral transmission from humans to North American bats, but had a limited amount of time in which to make decisions. We describe how decision analysis provides a powerful framework to analyze and reanalyze complex natural resource management problems as knowledge evolves. Coupled with expert judgment and avenues for the rapid release of information, risk assessment can provide timely scientific information for evolving decisions. In April 2020, the first rapid risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to North American bats. Based on the best available information and relying heavily on expert judgment, the risk assessment found a small possibility of transmission during summer work activities. Following that assessment, additional knowledge and data emerged, such as bat viral challenge studies, that further elucidated the risks of human-to-bat transmission and culminated in a second risk assessment in the fall of 2020. We updated the first SARS-CoV-2 risk assessment with new management alternatives and new estimates of little brown bat ( Myotis lucifugus ) susceptibility, using findings from the fall 2020 assessment and other empirical studies. We found that new knowledge led to an 88% decrease in the median number of bats estimated to be infected per 1,000 encountered when compared to earlier results. The use of facemasks during, or a negative COVID-19 test or vaccination prior to, bat encounters further reduced those risks. Using a combination of decision analysis, expert judgment, rapid risk assessment, and efficient modes of information distribution, we provided timely science-based support to decision makers for summer bat work in North America.

Wildlife Society Bulletin

Human and ecosystem health in coastal systems

U.S. coastal economies and communities are facing an unprecedented and growing number of impacts to coastal ecosystems including beach and fishery closures, harmful algal blooms, loss of critical habitat, as well as shoreline damage. This paper synthesizes our present understanding of the dynamics of human and ecosystem health in coastal systems with a focus on the need to better understand nearshore physical process interactions with coastal pollutants and ecosystems (e.g. fate and transport, circulation, depositional environment, climate change). It is organized around two major topical areas and six subtopic areas: 1) Identifying and mitigating coastal pollutants, including fecal pollution, nutrients and harmful algal blooms, and microplastics; and 2) Resilient coastal ecosystems, which focuses on coastal fisheries, shellfish and natural and nature-based features (NNBF). Societal needs and the tools and technologies needed to address them are discussed for each subtopic. Recommendations for scientific research, observations, community engagement, and policies aim to help prioritize future research and investments. A better understanding of coastal physical processes and interactions with coastal pollutants and resilient ecosystems (e.g. fate and transport, circulation, depositional environment, climate change) is a critical need. Other research recommendations include the need to quantify potential threats to human and ecosystem health through accurate risk assessments and to quantify the resulting hazard risk reduction of natural and nature-based features; improve pollutant and ecosystem impacts forecasting by integrating frequent and new data points into existing and novel models; collect environmental data to calibrate and validate models to predict future impacts on coastal ecosystems and their evolution due to anthropogenic stressors (land-based pollution, overfishing, coastal development), climate change, and sea level rise; and develop lower cost and rapid response tools to help coastal managers better respond to pollutant and ecosystem threats.

Shore and Beach

Citizen science can improve conservation science, natural resource management, and environmental protection

Citizen science has advanced science for hundreds of years, contributed to many peer-reviewed articles, and informed land management decisions and policies across the United States. Over the last 10 years, citizen science has grown immensely in the United States and many other countries. Here, we show how citizen science is a powerful tool for tackling many of the challenges faced in the field of conservation biology. We describe the two interwoven paths by which citizen science can improve conservation efforts, natural resource management, and environmental protection. The first path includes building scientific knowledge, while the other path involves informing policy and encouraging public action. We explore how citizen science is currently used and describe the investments needed to create a citizen science program. We find that: Citizen science already contributes substantially to many domains of science, including conservation, natural resource, and environmental science. Citizen science informs natural resource management, environmental protection, and policymaking and fosters public input and engagement. Many types of projects can benefit from citizen science, but one must be careful to match the needs for science and public involvement with the right type of citizen science project and the right method of public participation. Citizen science is a rigorous process of scientific discovery, indistinguishable from conventional science apart from the participation of volunteers. When properly designed, carried out, and evaluated, citizen science can provide sound science, efficiently generate high-quality data, and help solve problems.

Biological Conservation

Measuring and mapping the topography of the Florida Everglades for ecosystem restoration

One of the major issues facing ecosystem restoration and management of the Greater Everglades is the availability and distribution of clean, fresh water. The South Florida ecosystem encompasses an area of approximately 28,000 square kilometers and supports a human population that exceeds 5 million and is continuing to grow. The natural systems of the Kissimmee-Okeechobee-Everglades watershed compete for water resources primarily with the region's human population and urbanization, and with the agricultural and tourism industries. Surface water flow modeling and ecological modeling studies are important means of providing scientific information needed for ecosystem restoration planning and modeling. Hydrologic and ecological models provide much-needed predictive capabilities for evaluating management options for parks, refuges, and land acquisition and for understanding the impacts of land management practices in surrounding areas. These models require various input data, including elevation data that very accurately define the topography of the Florida Everglades.

Florida

Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface

The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.

contiguous United States

Subsurface gas hydrates in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The northernGulf of Mexico (GoM) has long been a focus area for the study of gashydrates. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, work focused on massive gashydrates deposits that were found to form at and near the seafloor in association with hydrocarbon seeps. However, as global scientific and industrial interest in assessment of the drilling hazards and resource implications of gashydrate accelerated, focus shifted to understanding the nature and abundance of "buried" gashydrates. Through 2005, despite the drilling of more than 1200 oil and gas industry wells through the gashydrate stability zone, published evidence of significant sub-seafloor gashydrate in the GoM was lacking. A 2005 drilling program by the GoM GasHydrate Joint Industry Project (the JIP) provided an initial confirmation of the occurrence of gashydrates below the GoM seafloor. In 2006, release of data from a 2003 industry well in Alaminos Canyon 818 provided initial documentation of gashydrate occurrence at high concentrations in sand reservoirs in the GoM. From 2006 to 2008, the JIP facilitated the integration of geophysical and geological data to identify sites prospective for gashydrate-bearing sands, culminating in the recommendation of numerous drilling targets within four sites spanning a range of typical deepwater settings. Concurrent with, but independent of, the JIP prospecting effort, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) conducted a preliminary assessment of the GoM gashydratepetroleum system, resulting in an estimate of 607 trillion cubic meters (21,444 trillion cubic feet) gas-in-place of which roughly one-third occurs at expected high concentrations in sand reservoirs. In 2009, the JIP drilled seven wells at three sites, discovering gashydrate at high saturation in sand reservoirs in four wells and suspected gashydrate at low to moderate saturations in two other wells. These results provide an initial confirmation of the complex nature and occurrence of gashydrate-bearing sands in the GoM, the efficacy of the integrated geological/geophysical prospecting approach used to identify the JIP drilling sites, and the relevance of the 2008 BOEM assessment.

Gulf Of Mexico