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An application of Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) to three national forests in Colorado and Wyoming

Despite widespread recognition that social-value information is needed to inform stakeholders and decision makers regarding trade-offs in environmental management, it too often remains absent from ecosystem service assessments. Although quantitative indicators of social values need to be explicitly accounted for in the decision-making process, they need not be monetary. Ongoing efforts to map such values demonstrate how they can also be made spatially explicit and relatable to underlying ecological information. We originally developed Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) as a tool to assess, map, and quantify nonmarket values perceived by various groups of ecosystem stakeholders. With SolVES 2.0 we have extended the functionality by integrating SolVES with Maxent maximum entropy modeling software to generate more complete social-value maps from available value and preference survey data and to produce more robust models describing the relationship between social values and ecosystems. The current study has two objectives: (1) evaluate how effectively the value index, a quantitative, nonmonetary social-value indicator calculated by SolVES, reproduces results from more common statistical methods of social-survey data analysis and (2) examine how the spatial results produced by SolVES provide additional information that could be used by managers and stakeholders to better understand more complex relationships among stakeholder values, attitudes, and preferences. To achieve these objectives, we applied SolVES to value and preference survey data collected for three national forests, the Pike and San Isabel in Colorado and the Bridger–Teton and the Shoshone in Wyoming. Value index results were generally consistent with results found through more common statistical analyses of the survey data such as frequency, discriminant function, and correlation analyses. In addition, spatial analysis of the social-value maps produced by SolVES provided information that was useful for explaining relationships between stakeholder values and forest uses. Our results suggest that SolVES can effectively reproduce information derived from traditional statistical analyses while adding spatially explicit, social-value information that can contribute to integrated resource assessment, planning, and management of forests and other ecosystems.

Colorado;Wyoming

Global patterns of tree stem growth and stand aboveground wood production in mangrove forests

Mangrove forests provide important ecological and economic services including carbon sequestration and storage. The conservation and restoration of mangroves are expected to play an important role in mitigating climate change, and understanding the factors influencing mangrove stem growth and wood production are important in predicting and improving mangrove carbon sequestration and responses to environmental change. In this study, we collected data of individual diameter at breast height (DBH) growth rate and stand level aboveground wood production in both non-plantation (commonly termed as natural) mangroves and mangrove plantations across the world. Climatic factors, proxies of edaphic factors, as well as biological factors (e.g. mangrove species) were included as explanatory variables in the analyses to determine factors influencing the global patterns of tree growth rate and stand wood production of mangroves. Using hierarchical Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis we found interactions among environmental and biological factors in controlling mangrove tree growth rate and stand wood production. We also found different global patterns of tree growth rate and stand wood production between non-plantation mangroves and plantations. Climatic conditions (precipitation of driest season, precipitation seasonality) were the most important factors influencing the global pattern of tree DBH growth rate in non-plantation mangroves, with edaphic and biological characteristics also playing a role under specific climatic conditions. The global pattern of stand wood production in non-plantation mangroves was primarily determined by stand mean DBH growth rate of individual trees. However, in mangrove plantations management measures, specifically species selection and planting density, were the most important factors influencing the global patterns of tree growth rate and stand wood production. Our study provides parameters for a global estimation of long-term carbon sequestration in both non-plantation mangroves and mangrove plantations. In addition, our results help us better predict the dynamics of tree growth and carbon sequestration of non-plantation mangroves under changing climate.

Forest Ecology and Management

Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Massachusetts

Social-value maps for Arapaho, Roosevelt, Medicine Bow, Routt, and White River National Forests, Colorado and Wyoming

Executive Summary The continued pressures of population growth on the life-sustaining, economic, and cultural ecosystem services provided by our national forests, particularly those located near rapidly growing urban areas, present ongoing challenges to forest managers. Achieving an effective assessment of these ecosystem services includes a proper accounting of the ecological, economic, and social values attributable to them. However, assessments of ecosystem goods and services notably lack information describing the spatial distribution and relative intensity of social values—the perceived, nonmarket values derived particularly from cultural ecosystem services. A geographic information system (GIS) tool developed to fill this need, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES; http://solves.cr.usgs.gov ), now provides the capability to generate social-value maps at a range of spatial scales. This report presents some of the methods behind SolVES, procedures needed to apply the tool, the first formal map products resulting from its application at a regional scale, and a discussion of the management implications associated with this type of information. In this study, we use SolVES to identify the location and relative intensity of social values as derived from survey responses gathered from residents living in counties adjacent to Arapaho, Roosevelt, Medicine Bow, Routt, and White River National Forests. The results, presented as a series of social-value maps, represent the first publicly available spatial data on social-value intensity for the southern Rocky Mountain region. Our analysis identified high-value areas for social values including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life sustaining within wilderness areas. Other values, like recreation, show high-value areas both within wilderness and throughout the general forest areas, which can be attributed to people using the forests for a diverse set of recreational activities. The economic social-value type was lower within wilderness areas, which was an expected outcome because of the restrictions inside wilderness areas that preclude resource extraction, development, and motorized or mechanized recreation. Providing spatially explicit social-value information collected from residents in counties adjacent to these national forests can assist in facilitating the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service’s Multiple-Use Sustained-Yield Act of 1960 (16 U.S.C. 528) note and the 2012 Forest Service Planning Rule (36 CFR Part 219), which encourage public participation in planning and management. By making these maps available to the public, we hope to encourage exploration of potential uses of these data for resource management and planning.

Colorado, Wyoming

Effects of climate change on midwestern ecosystems: Appalachian – Interior – Northeast Mesic Forest

The Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest ecosystem, historically buffered by cool, moist conditions, may experience significant stress under future climate change, particularly due to intensifying droughts and milder winters in the midwestern United States. Droughts are expected to intensify in frequency and severity, depleting soil moisture, increasing tree mortality, and reshaping species composition. Increasing aridity and disrupted hydrologic cycles will likely accelerate soil erosion, deplete nutrients, and heighten wildfire risk. Meanwhile, milder winters may reduce snowpack insulation, increase freeze-thaw cycles, and alter growing seasons, potentially amplifying cold stress, disrupting phenology, and contributing to shifts in habitat structure and community composition. While easing winter severity may temporarily boost plant productivity and facilitate species migration into and throughout the Midwest, it can also increase the risk of frost damage for early-leafing trees and disrupt ecological relationships, such as plant-pollinator interactions. Together, these stressors may drive fundamental shifts in habitat structure and community composition, favoring drought-, fire-, and cold-tolerant species, while historically dominant, moisture-dependent species decline. Species with limited drought resistance, such as those with shallow roots or low water-use efficiency, may be especially vulnerable, while drought-adapted taxa could gain a competitive advantage. This shift could trigger a departure from over a century of mesophication in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, which has favored shade-loving, moisture-dependent species in fire-suppressed landscapes. As a result, these forests may be particularly ill-equipped to withstand the novel environmental conditions imposed by intensifying droughts and milder winters. The Appalachian-Northeast Mesic Forest habitat group, dominated by eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) and eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ), is likely particularly vulnerable, as both dominant species are projected to decline due to increasing drought stress and shifting competitive dynamics. In the North-Central Beech - Maple - Basswood Forest, the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa may be more vulnerable than more eastern portions of the habitat due to its already drier conditions, with climate change expected to push these communities beyond favorable conditions. Species interactions, including invasive species, pests, and herbivory, are also likely to be reshaped by climate change, compounding stress on habitat groups throughout the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest. Warmer winters and increased disturbance may facilitate the expansion of invasive species, which outcompete native vegetation and alter ecosystem dynamics. At the same time, pests and pathogens are likely to become more destructive, as milder winters enhance their survival and spread and drought weakens tree defenses. Additionally, rising white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) populations, supported by warmer winters, may shift forest regeneration patterns by selectively browsing on sensitive seedlings and saplings, limiting the recruitment of historically dominant tree species while favoring browse-resistant plants. Collectively, these pressures can drive significant and ongoing ecological transformation in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, highlighting the need for adaptive management strategies to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss

A framework for quantifying resilience to forest disturbance

(Bradford) The concept of ecological resilience is an invaluable tool to assess the risk of state transitions and predict the impact of management on an ecosystem’s response to future disturbances. However, resilience is difficult to quantify and the factors contributing to resilience are often unknown in systems subject to multiple disturbances. We present a framework to assess the possibility of ponderosa pine and dry mixed conifer forests to be resilient to future disturbance by combining indicators of resistance to fire, insect, and drought disturbances using data from the Rio Tusas-Lower San Antonio landscape in northern New Mexico. On average, the dry mixed conifer forests received a higher score for potential resilience than the ponderosa pine (5.24 and 4.07, respectively, out of nine possible points). Canopy bulk density was the most important driver of the overall score in the dry mixed conifer type. In the ponderosa pine type, overall basal area and canopy bulk density were the strongest drivers of the overall score. These indicators have the greatest impact on the resilience score and provide the most effective targets for management to increase the possibility of resilience in these forest types. We validated the model in both forest types by comparing individual stands to an ‘ideal’ score for a stand that is within the historic range of variation (HRV) and confirmed that stands outside of HRV had a low possibility of resilience and stands that had received restoration-based treatments were more likely to be resilient. Our results provide evidence that the changes to forest structure and species composition that have occurred since the onset of fire exclusion have degraded the potential of these forest types to be resilient to future fire, insect, and drought-related disturbances. By modifying disturbances and resilience indicator thresholds this model can be applied to assess resilience across various regions and ecosystem types.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change

Identifying the ecological and management implications of mangrove migration in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influences whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the ecological and societal benefits that salt marshes and mangroves provide, coastal environmental managers are challenged to anticipate effects of mangrove expansion on critical wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation. This project produced information that is relevant to scientists and coastal resource managers working within the transition zone between mangrove forests and salt marshes. The two primary products are: (1) an investigation that leverages data and information from a community-curated data network called the Mangrove Migration Network to refine temperature thresholds for mangrove range expansion in a warming climate; and (2) a review article that examines current understanding of the effects of mangrove range expansion and displacement of salt marshes on wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas

Initial responses of songbird communities to forest reclamation on legacy surface mines

Surface coal mining and subsequent reclamation efforts in the Appalachian Mountains, USA, transform the ecological characteristics of natural landscapes. The Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA) is a mine reclamation method that emphasizes best management practices in forestry. FRA practices have demonstrated success in establishing native forests and accelerating natural succession on coal mines; however, no studies have empirically examined the effects of the FRA on bird communities. Our study aimed to assess the avian community composition within young forests reclaimed using the FRA after one decade of forest growth. Whereas traditional reclamation practices often support grassland avian guilds, we expected that the FRA would provide habitat for shrubland and young forest avian guilds. Moreover, we sought to determine whether FRA forests would contain known avian indicator species of the native forest land cover. In June 2022, we conducted point count surveys in high-elevation, red spruce-northern hardwood (RS-NH) forests in the Appalachian Mountains of eastern West Virginia, USA. Using Bayesian multispecies occupancy models, we assessed avian guild occupancy and species richness within two FRA forest age classes (2–5 years and 8–11 years). We also examined avian community composition within two older RS-NH reference age classes to predict the future avian composition within FRA forests if reclamation succeeds. We found that the FRA breeding bird community included all of the avian indicator species expected to inhabit a young RS-NH forest. These results suggest that after approximately one decade, legacy mines reclaimed using the FRA are progressing toward a native RS-NH forest that supports associated forest bird communities.

West Virginia

Aquatic biodiversity in forests: A weak link in ecosystem services resilience

The diversity of aquatic ecosystems is being quickly reduced on many continents, warranting a closer examination of the consequences for ecological integrity and ecosystem services. Here we describe intermediate and final ecosystem services derived from aquatic biodiversity in forests. We include a summary of the factors framing the assembly of aquatic biodiversity in forests in natural systems and how they change with a variety of natural disturbances and human-derived stressors. We consider forested aquatic ecosystems as a multi-state portfolio, with diverse assemblages and life-history strategies occurring at local scales as a consequence of a mosaic of habitat conditions and past disturbances and stressors. Maintaining this multi-state portfolio of assemblages requires a broad perspective of ecosystem structure, various functions, services, and management implications relative to contemporary stressors. Because aquatic biodiversity provides multiple ecosystem services to forests, activities that compromise aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity could be an issue for maintaining forest ecosystem integrity. We illustrate these concepts with examples of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in forests of northwestern North America, also known as Northeast Pacific Rim. Encouraging management planning at broad as well as local spatial scales to recognize multi-state ecosystem management goals has promise for maintaining valuable ecosystem services. Ultimately, integration of information from socio-ecological ecosystems will be needed to maintain ecosystem services derived directly and indirectly from forest aquatic biota.

California, Oregon, Washington

Ecological thresholds as a basis for defining management triggers for National Park Service vital signs: case studies for dryland ecosystems

Threshold concepts are used in research and management of ecological systems to describe and interpret abrupt and persistent reorganization of ecosystem properties (Walker and Meyers, 2004; Groffman and others, 2006). Abrupt change, referred to as a threshold crossing, and the progression of reorganization can be triggered by one or more interactive disturbances such as land-use activities and climatic events (Paine and others, 1998). Threshold crossings occur when feedback mechanisms that typically absorb forces of change are replaced with those that promote development of alternative equilibria or states (Suding and others, 2004; Walker and Meyers, 2004; Briske and others, 2008). The alternative states that emerge from a threshold crossing vary and often exhibit reduced ecological integrity and value in terms of management goals relative to the original or reference system. Alternative stable states with some limited residual properties of the original system may develop along the progression after a crossing; an eventual outcome may be the complete loss of pre-threshold properties of the original ecosystem. Reverting to the more desirable reference state through ecological restoration becomes increasingly difficult and expensive along the progression gradient and may eventually become impossible. Ecological threshold concepts have been applied as a heuristic framework and to aid in the management of rangelands (Bestelmeyer, 2006; Briske and others, 2006, 2008), aquatic (Scheffer and others, 1993; Rapport and Whitford 1999), riparian (Stringham and others, 2001; Scott and others, 2005), and forested ecosystems (Allen and others, 2002; Digiovinazzo and others, 2010). These concepts are also topical in ecological restoration (Hobbs and Norton 1996; Whisenant 1999; Suding and others, 2004; King and Hobbs, 2006) and ecosystem sustainability (Herrick, 2000; Chapin and others, 1996; Davenport and others, 1998). Achieving conservation management goals requires the protection of resources within the range of desired conditions (Cook and others, 2010). The goal of conservation management for natural resources in the U.S. National Park System is to maintain native species and habitat unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations. Achieving this goal requires, in part, early detection of system change and timely implementation of remediation. The recent National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring program (NPS I&M) was established to provide early warning of declining ecosystem conditions relative to a desired native or reference system (Fancy and others, 2009). To be an effective tool for resource protection, monitoring must be designed to alert managers of impending thresholds so that preventive actions can be taken. This requires an understanding of the ecosystem attributes and processes associated with threshold-type behavior; how these attributes and processes become degraded; and how risks of degradation vary among ecosystems and in relation to environmental factors such as soil properties, climatic conditions, and exposure to stressors. In general, the utility of the threshold concept for long-term monitoring depends on the ability of scientists and managers to detect, predict, and prevent the occurrence of threshold crossings associated with persistent, undesirable shifts among ecosystem states (Briske and others, 2006). Because of the scientific challenges associated with understanding these factors, the application of threshold concepts to monitoring designs has been very limited to date (Groffman and others, 2006). As a case in point, the monitoring efforts across the 32 NPS I&M networks were largely designed with the knowledge that they would not be used to their full potential until the development of a systematic method for understanding threshold dynamics and methods for estimating key attributes of threshold crossings. This report describes and demonstrates a generalized approach that we implemented to formalize understanding and estimating of threshold dynamics for terrestrial dryland ecosystems in national parks of the Colorado Plateau. We provide a structured approach to identify and describe degradation processes associated with threshold behavior and to estimate indicator levels that characterize the point at which a threshold crossing has occurred or is imminent (tipping points) or points where investigative or preventive management action should be triggered (assessment points). We illustrate this method for several case studies in national parks included in the Northern and Southern Colorado Plateau NPS I&M networks, where historical livestock grazing, climatic change, and invasive species are key agents of change. The approaches developed in these case studies are intended to enhance the design, effectiveness, and management-relevance of monitoring efforts in support of conservation management in dryland systems. They specifically enhance National Park Service (NPS) capacity for protecting park resources on the Colorado Plateau but have applicability to monitoring and conservation management of dryland ecosystems worldwide.

Colorado Plateau

Low stand density moderates growth declines during hot droughts in semi-arid forests

Increasing heat and aridity in coming decades is expected to negatively impact tree growth and threaten forest sustainability in dry areas. Maintaining low stand density has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of increasingly severe droughts by minimizing competitive intensity. However, the direct impact of stand density on the growing environment (i.e. soil moisture), and the specific drought metrics that best quantify that environment, are not well explored for any forest ecosystem. We examined the relationship of varying stand density (i.e. basal area) on soil moisture and stand‐level growth in a long‐term (multi‐decadal), ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa , forest management experiment. We accounted for the influence of stand‐level density on moisture availability by measuring and modelling soil moisture using an ecosystem water balance model. To quantify the growing environment, we developed metrics of ecological drought that integrate the influence of moisture availability in the soil with moisture demand by the atmosphere. We paired these results with stand‐level dendrochronological data, avoiding the potential bias introduced from individual tree‐based assessments, and used critical climate period analysis to identify the timing and duration of these drought metrics that most relate to forest growth. We found that stand‐level growth is highly responsive to the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture. Growth in all stands was negatively related to temperature and positively related to moisture availability, although the sensitivity of growth to those conditions varied among stand density treatments. Growth enhancement during cool years is greatest in low density stands. In addition, low density stands displayed substantially higher long‐term average growth than higher density stands and maintained higher growth even when temperatures were high. Growth in low density stands also increased more than higher density stands in response to greater long‐term moisture availability. Synthesis and applications . We quantified the influence of stand‐level density on the environmental conditions that determine tree growth and related forest growth to patterns of moisture supply and demand. Our drought metrics, and analytical approach for quantifying drought impacts on forest growth, are a novel approach for assessing forest vulnerability to drought under climate change. These results provide new perspective on the potential for density management to mitigate drought stress and maintain forest stand growth during and after drought events in water‐limited forests.

Arizona

Estimating aboveground forest biomass carbon and fire consumption in the U.S. Utah High Plateaus using data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program, Landsat, and LANDFIRE

The concentrations of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been increasing and greatly affecting global climate and socio-economic systems. Actively growing forests are generally considered to be a major carbon sink, but forest wildfires lead to large releases of biomass carbon into the atmosphere. Aboveground forest biomass carbon (AFBC), an important ecological indicator, and fire-induced carbon emissions at regional scales are highly relevant to forest sustainable management and climate change. It is challenging to accurately estimate the spatial distribution of AFBC across large areas because of the spatial heterogeneity of forest cover types and canopy structure. In this study, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, Landsat, and Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project (LANDFIRE) data were integrated in a regression tree model for estimating AFBC at a 30-m resolution in the Utah High Plateaus. AFBC were calculated from 225 FIA field plots and used as the dependent variable in the model. Of these plots, 10% were held out for model evaluation with stratified random sampling, and the other 90% were used as training data to develop the regression tree model. Independent variable layers included Landsat imagery and the derived spectral indicators, digital elevation model (DEM) data and derivatives, biophysical gradient data, existing vegetation cover type and vegetation structure. The cross-validation correlation coefficient ( r value) was 0.81 for the training model. Independent validation using withheld plot data was similar with r value of 0.82. This validated regression tree model was applied to map AFBC in the Utah High Plateaus and then combined with burn severity information to estimate loss of AFBC in the Longston fire of Zion National Park in 2001. The final dataset represented 24 forest cover types for a 4 million ha forested area. We estimated a total of 353 Tg AFBC with an average of 87 MgC/ha in the Utah High Plateaus. We also estimated that 8054 Mg AFBC were released from 2.24 km 2 burned forest area in the Longston fire. These results demonstrate that an AFBC spatial map and estimated biomass carbon consumption can readily be generated using existing database. The methodology provides a consistent, practical, and inexpensive way for estimating AFBC at 30-m resolution over large areas throughout the United States.

Ecological Indicators

Herbicides and herbivory interact to drive plant community and crop‐tree establishment

Land management practices often directly alter vegetation structure and composition, but the degree to which ecological processes such as herbivory interact with management to influence biodiversity is less well understood. We hypothesized that large herbivores compound the effects of intensive forest management on early seral plant communities and plantation establishment (i.e., tree survival and growth), and the degree of such effects is dependent on the intensity of management practices. We established 225 m 2 wild‐ungulate (deer and elk) exclosures, nested within a manipulated gradient of management intensity (no‐herbicide Control, Light herbicide, Moderate herbicide and Intensive herbicide treatments), replicated at the scale of whole harvest units (10‐19 ha). Vegetation structure, composition and crop‐tree responses to herbivory varied across the gradient of herbicide application during the first two years of stand establishment, with herbivory effects most evident at intermediate herbicide treatments. In the Moderate herbicide treatment – which approximates treatments applied to > 2.5 million hectares in Pacific Northwest U.S.A. – foraging by deer and elk resulted in simplified, low‐cover plant communities more closely resembling the Intensive herbicide treatment. Herbivory further suppressed the growth of competing vegetation in the Light herbicide treatment, improving crop‐tree survival, and providing early evidence of an ecosystem service. By changing community composition and vegetation structure, intensive forest management alters foraging selectivity and subsequent plant‐herbivore interactions; initial shifts in early seral communities are likely to influence understory plant communities and tree growth in later stages of forest development.

Oregon

Kelp forest monitoring at Naval Base Ventura County, San Nicolas Island, California: Fall 2018 and Spring 2019, fifth annual report

Introduction Kelp forests and rocky reefs are among the most recognized marine ecosystems and provide the primary habitat for several species of fishes, invertebrates, and algal assemblages (Stephens and others, 2006). In addition, kelp forests have been shown to be important carbon dioxide sinks (Wilmers and others, 2012) and are an important source of nearshore marine primary production (Duggins and others, 1989). These highly dynamic ecosystems are extremely variable, and both top-down and bottom-up ecological controls drive this rich trophic environment. Giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) forests and the species that inhabit these ecosystems are influenced by several environmental conditions, such as wave exposure, water temperature, water clarity, bottom depth and composition, species composition, and the density of kelp and other algal assemblages (Schiel and Foster, 2015). However, in addition to “normal” variability, kelp forests can undergo extreme regime shifts from kelp canopy forested areas to barrens characterized by high densities of urchins and encrusting coralline algae (Harrold and Reed, 1985). San Nicolas Island (SNI), outermost of the California Channel Islands, is home to a diverse group of terrestrial and marine organisms and includes kelp bed and rocky reef habitats ( fig. 1 ). The SNI kelp forests not only provide food and shelter for fishes and invertebrates within the habitat, but also they support higher trophic level consumers such as marine birds and several marine mammal species including the southern sea otter ( Enhydra lutris nereis) , a major predator on sea urchins and other marine invertebrates. Owing to concern about the vulnerability of the California population, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) translocated 140 southern sea otters from the central California coast to SNI between 1987 and 1990. Although only approximately 14 translocated otters are thought to have remained at SNI (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2012), their population at the island has increased and is currently greater than 120 individuals (Hatfield and others, 2019). Sea otters are a natural part of the kelp forest ecosystem, but their presence has implications for community dynamics as they repopulate a region from which they were extirpated in the 19th century. At SNI, sea otters have been concentrated mostly around the west end of the island, with some use of the south side and very little, but expanding, use of the northeast side. An ecosystem shift from urchin dominated to kelp dominated, that occurred at a site at the west end of the island in the early 2000s, though initiated by sea urchin disease, was likely facilitated to some degree by sea otter foraging (Kenner and Tinker, 2018). These ecosystems also are the target of many fisheries, including urchin and lobster. Urchin fisheries, which target the larger red sea urchin, may release the smaller but more mobile purple sea urchin from competitive control (Dayton and others, 1998). Lobster fisheries may release purple sea urchins from predatory control (Lafferty, 2004). Owing to the distance from the mainland, however, SNI kelp forests and reefs have been somewhat protected from the degree of harvest and other anthropogenic impacts experienced by the southern California mainland. Invasive species are another issue, and there are a few invasive subtidal macroalgae of concern in southern California waters. Although the brown alga Sargassum muticum has been established at the island for decades, S. horneri has only recently been seen at SNI and, so far, the invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida and the green alga Caulerpa taxifolia have not been observed there. Sargassum horneri , in particular, has demonstrated a capability to outcompete native kelps at some of the other Channel Islands but it is unclear what indirect effects it may have on community structure (Marks and others, 2015). Because the surrounding kelp forests fall within the management boundary of the SNI Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan (INRMP; U.S. Navy, 2015), USGS works with the Navy to provide surveys of this ecologically important ecosystem that inform natural resource managers of trends in the population abundance of particular species. In addition, long-term surveys allow for an understanding of potential changes in species diversity and community composition as a result of trophic or other interactions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) implemented a kelp forest monitoring program for the U.S. Navy at San Nicolas Island in 2014, building on sites and methods established by USFWS scientists in 1980 ( appendix 1 ). This report focuses on data collected during sampling expeditions to these sites in fall 2018 (October 2–5) and spring 2019 (April 3–6). Together they will be herein referred to as year 5 because, although the trips were made in different calendar years, they were approximately 6 months apart and were conducted under the fifth year of this contract. The previous sampling year (fall 2017 and spring 2018) is referred to as year 4. The year 5 data are compared with data collected during eight trips from fall 2014 through spring 2018. Differences in counts between these expeditions can result from seasonal factors, stochastic variation, or sampling error, but temporal comparison can reveal population trends. Where appropriate, long-term data collected during the 33 years prior to the implementation of these slightly revised protocols will be presented in order to lend some context to the observations reported here. Genus and species names used in this report are those currently recognized as valid in the Integrated Taxonomic Information System (ITIS.gov). Upon first use, the name recognized as valid by the World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS; marinespecies.org) is shown in brackets if different. The exception is Sargassum horneri which does not show up in any discernable form in ITIS.gov.

California

Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) home range, movement and forays revealed by GPS-tracking

The Northern Goshawk ( Accipiter gentilis ) is an apex predator occurring across North America and Eurasia. The species has received considerable conservation focus in late-seral conifer forests of western North America, where its habitat has been substantially reduced and altered by timber harvest and is increasingly at risk from high severity fire, drought, and forest pathogens. In the Sierra Nevada range of California, management and conservation of goshawks are hampered by a lack of knowledge of their basic space use and movement ecology. We used global positioning system (GPS) loggers to investigate space use of 20 resident, adult Northern Goshawks over 3 yr (2015–2018) in the Plumas National Forest, California. Median home range sizes of male goshawks were more than twice as large as those of females, and nonbreeding-season home ranges were three times larger than breeding-season home ranges. High resolution GPS data (location interval 1–6 min) allowed quantification of daily transit distances up to 60 km for individual goshawks and revealed long-distance forays into adjacent territories and surrounding areas. Four goshawks (three males, one female) undertook forays >8 km from their nest locations, with forays lasting up to 6 d; these forays occurred during both breeding and nonbreeding seasons for both sexes. Comparing our results to current conservation approaches, we determined that USDA Forest Service goshawk Protected Activity Centers protected <25% of both the roost locations and the area used during the daytime. Conservation efforts for Northern Goshawks in the Sierra Nevada would benefit from consideration of year-round habitat needs at larger scales than previously thought.

California

Characterizing vegetation and return periods in avalanche paths using lidar and aerial imagery

Snow avalanches are a hazard and ecological disturbance across mountain landscapes worldwide. Understanding how avalanche frequency affects forests and vegetation improves infrastructure planning, risk management, and avalanche forecasting. We implemented a novel approach using lidar, aerial imagery, and a random forest model to classify imagery-observed vegetation within avalanche paths in southern Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. We calculated spatially explicit avalanche return periods using a physically based spatial interpolation method and characterized the vegetation within those return period zones. The automated vegetation classification model differed slightly between avalanche paths, but the combination of lidar and spectral signature metrics provided the best accuracy (88–92 percent) for predicting vegetation classes within complex avalanche terrain rather than lidar or spectral signature metrics alone. The highest frequency avalanche return periods were broadly characterized by grassland and shrubland, but the influence of topography greatly influences the vegetation classes as well as the return periods. Furthermore, statistically significant differences in lidar-derived vegetation canopy height exist between categorical return periods. The ability to characterize vegetation within various avalanche return periods using remote sensing data provides land use planners and avalanche forecasters a tool for assessing the spatial extent of large-magnitude avalanches in individual avalanche paths.

Montana

Effects of fire on small mammal communities in frequent-fire forests in California

Fire is a natural, dynamic process that is integral to maintaining ecosystem function. The reintroduction of fire (e.g., prescribed fire, managed wildfire) is a critical management tool for protecting many frequent-fire forests against stand-replacing fires while restoring an essential ecological process. Understanding the effects of fire on forests and wildlife communities is important in natural resource planning efforts. Small mammals are key components of forest food webs and essential to ecosystem function. To investigate the relationship of fire to small mammal assemblages, we live trapped small mammals in 10 burned and 10 unburned forests over 2 years in the central Sierra Nevada, California. Small mammal abundance was higher in unburned forests, largely reflecting the greater proportion of closed-canopy species such as Glaucomys sabrinus in unburned forests. The most abundant species across the entire study area was the highly adaptable generalist species, Peromyscus maniculatus . Species diversity was similar between burned and unburned forests, but burned forests were characterized by greater habitat heterogeneity and higher small mammal species evenness. The use and reintroduction of fire to maintain a matrix of burn severities, including large patches of unburned refugia, creates a heterogeneous and resilient landscape that allows for fire-sensitive species to proliferate and, as such, may help maintain key ecological functions and diverse small mammal assemblages.

California

Wildland fire science at the U.S. Geological Survey—Supporting wildland fire and land management across the United States postcard

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Wildland Fire Science Program produces information to identify the causes of wildfires, understand the impacts and benefits of both wildfires and prescribed fires, and help prevent and manage larger, catastrophic events. USGS fire scientists provide information and develop tools that are widely used by stakeholders to make decisions before, during, and after wildfires in desert, grassland, tundra, wetland, and forest ecosystems across the United States. Active areas of research include— Wildland fire behavior and risk management Fire ecology, fire effects, and post-fire restoration of ecosystems Risk assessments for human health, public safety, and the Nation’s infrastructure Remote sensing and geospatial tools and data.

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