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USGS2011

Vegetation communities at Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge, Missouri

New and existing data were used to describe and map vegetation communities at Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge. Existing data had been gathered during the growing seasons of 2002, 2003, and 2004. New data were collected in 2007 to describe previously unsampled communities and communities within which insufficient data had been collected. Plot data and field observations were used to describe 17 natural and semi-natural communities at the Association level of the National Vegetation Classification System (NVCS). Four ruderal communities not included in the NVCS are also described. Data were used to inform delineation of communities using aerial photos from 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2007. During this process, eleven additional land cover classes including cultural features, managed vegetation communities, and water features were identified. These features were mapped, some were described, but no vegetation data were collected. In 2009, nearly all community polygons were field visited and classified to the Association level. When necessary, polygon boundaries were adjusted based on field observations. The final map includes 482 polygons of 27 land cover classes encompassing 3,174 hectares on 5 units of the refuge. Data and information will inform the development of the refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan.

Missouri↗

USGS2016

Herpetological monitoring and assessment on the Trinity River, Trinity County, California—Final report

The primary goal of the Trinity River Restoration Program is to rehabilitate the fisheries on the dam-controlled Trinity River. However, maintaining and enhancing other wildlife populations through the restoration initiative is also a key objective. Foothill yellow-legged frogs ( Rana boylii ) and western pond turtles ( Actinemys marmorata ) have been identified as important herpetological species on which to focus monitoring efforts due to their status as California state-listed species of concern and potential listing on the U.S. Endangered Species List. We developed and implemented a monitoring strategy for these species specific to the Trinity River with the objectives of establishing baseline values for probabilities of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction; identifying site characteristics that correlate with the probability of extinction; and estimating overall trends in abundance. Our 3-year study suggests that foothill yellow-legged frogs declined in the probability of site occupancy. Conversely, our results suggest that western pond turtles increased in both abundance and the probability of site occupancy. The short length of our study period makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions, but these results provide much-needed baseline data. Further monitoring and directed studies are required to assess how habitat changes and management decisions relate to the status and trend of these species over the long term.

California↗

USGS2014

Wetland management and rice farming strategies to decrease methylmercury bioaccumulation and loads from the Cosumnes River Preserve, California

We evaluated mercury (Hg) concentrations in caged fish (deployed for 30 days) and water from agricultural wetland (rice fields), managed wetland, slough, and river habitats in the Cosumnes River Preserve, California. We also implemented experimental hydrological regimes on managed wetlands and post-harvest rice straw management techniques on rice fields in order to evaluate potential Best Management Practices to decrease methylmercury bioaccumulation within wetlands and loads to the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. Total Hg concentrations in caged fish were twice as high in rice fields as in managed wetland, slough, or riverine habitats, including seasonal managed wetlands subjected to identical hydrological regimes. Caged fish Hg concentrations also differed among managed wetland treatments and post-harvest rice straw treatments. Specifically, Hg concentrations in caged fish decreased from inlets to outlets in seasonal managed wetlands with either a single (fall-only) or dual (fall and spring) drawdown and flood-up events, whereas Hg concentrations increased slightly from inlets to outlets in permanent managed wetlands. In rice fields, experimental post-harvest straw management did not decrease Hg concentrations in caged fish. In fact, in fields in which rice straw was chopped and either disked into the soil or baled and removed from the fields, fish Hg concentrations increased from inlets to outlets and were higher than Hg concentrations in fish from rice fields subjected to the more standard post-harvest practice of simply chopping rice straw prior to fall flood-up. Finally, aqueous methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations and export were highly variable, and seasonal trends in particular were often opposite to those of caged fish. Aqueous MeHg concentrations and loads were substantially higher in winter than in summer, whereas caged fish Hg concentrations were relatively low in winter and substantially higher in summer. Together, our results highlight the importance of habitat, seasonal processes, and wetland management practices on Hg cycling and ecological risk in aquatic ecosystems.

California↗

USGS2009

To burn or not to burn Oriental bittersweet: A fire manager’s conundrum

Oriental bittersweet ( Celastrus orbiculatus ) is a highly invasive liana (woody vine) that occurs throughout the Eastern United States. This twining plant can blanket and girdle adjacent vegetation, affecting succession and damaging trees. In areas where prescribed fire is a management tool, the response of Oriental bittersweet to fire needs to be quantified, rather than relying on anecdotal evidence. Currently, in areas already infested with this species, there are no strategies for prioritizing pre- or post-fire treatments on Oriental bittersweet. This largely results from a lack of understanding of the nature of post-fire resprouting by this species. Sprouting of bittersweet can at least double with fire and sprouts appear to respond to fire with an increase in growth rate (Pavlovic and Young pers. obs.). Beyond this basic need to understand the interaction between fire and Oriental bittersweet resprouting, we need to investigate how fire may interact with light, soil moisture, litter and other environmental factors to either increase or decrease abundance of this species. Finally, it is unknown how fire regimes influence the distribution of Oriental bittersweet on the landscape; thus we need to model the distribution of Oriental bittersweet in a fire impacted landscape. If we determine through our research that fire enhances the spread of this species, modification of fire suppression tactics and potential fire exclusion zones may be necessary. Thus we will be able to provide land managers throughout the Eastern US with data-driven decision support tools for more successful management of this species in fire dependent and invaded areas.

Indiana↗

USGS2007

Southern California Bight 2003 Regional Monitoring Program: V. water quality

More than $30 million is expended annually on environmental monitoring in the Southern California Bight (SCB), yet only 5% of the Bight is monitored on an ongoing basis. Therefore, environmental managers in the SCB decided to expand their monitoring program and, starting in 1994, decided to conduct periodic regional assessments of ecosystem condition and assess the overall health of the SCB. Sixty-five different organizations collaborated in 2003 to create the third SCB Regional Monitoring Program (Bight '03). Bight '03 was designed to be integrated regional monitoring program that encompasses regulatory, academic, and non-governmental agencies. Bight '03 had three components: Coastal Ecology, Shoreline Microbiology, and Water Quality. This report addresses the purpose, approach, findings, and recommendations from the Water Quality component, which focused on contamination-laden stormwater runoff, in particularly its variability in time and space as well as its short-term ecological impacts. Specifically, the Bight '03 Water Quality component had three primary goals, the first of which was to described the temporal evolution of stormwater plumes produced by the major southern California rivers. Specifically, the study was intended to determine how far offshore the plumes extended, how rapidly they advected, how long before the plumes dispersed and how these properties differed among storms and river systems. The second goal was to describe how the physical properties (e.g., turbidity, temperature, salinity) of the plume related to biogeochemical and ecological properties that are of more direct concern to the water quality management community. Accomplished primarily through ship-based sampling of water quality parameters, this second goal was to describe how far offshore, and for how ;long after the storm, elevated bacterial concentrations, toxicity, and nutrients could be detected. Similar to the fist goal, the study also addressed how these answers differed among storms and river systems. The final goal was to determine whether relationships between environmental indicators derived from coincident satellite remote sensing and in situ data sets are sufficiently robust for remote sensing to become a routine water quality monitoring programs. Remote sensing data potentially provide coastal managers with synoptic near-real time regional information about prevailing ocean conditions and hazards that would complement existing field-based sampling protocols, but only if there is a thorough understanding of how to interpret and utilize the proxy measures, such as ocean color. The understanding of these priorities through Bight '03 sampling is intended to provide the basis for developing more efficient, widespread and coast-effective coastal ocean monitoring techniques. Water quality data were collected across eight major river systems within four geographic regions of southern California. Field measurements included the primary contaminants of interest, i.e., bacterial concentrations, water toxicity, and nutrients, as well as related parameters such as temperatures, salinity, total suspended solids, transmissivity, chlorophyll, and colored dissolved organic material (CDOM) concentrations. For each of the four major regions, i.e., Santa Clara/Ventura Rivers, Ballona Creek/Santa Monica Bay, San Pedro Shelf, and the San Diego, Tijuana Rivers, two stormwater events were sampled for up to three days by ship resulting in 574 water column CTD+ profiles and 705 discrete water samples during 36 ship-days. These data were analyzed in combination with MODIS ocean color satellite remote sensing, buoy meteorological observations, drifters, and HF radar current measurements to evaluate the dispersal patterns, dynamics, and impacts of the freshwater runoff plumes. Based on these data and resulting analyses, the principal conclusions were as follow: - Stormwater runoff turbidity plumes were found to be spatially extensive, covering up to 2500 km 2 within the Southern California Bight nearshore zone, and persisting over the entire duration of the post-storm sampling period (at least 3 days). - The spatial and temporal extent of the portion of the plume with contaminants was far less than that of the turbidity plume, typically representing <10% of its area (30-70% off Tijuana); however, with contaminant impacts generally greatly reduced or absent by the third or fourth day of sampling - Pseudo-nitzschia , a harmful algae that produces domoic acid, was found to be more abundant than previously reported. - Accurately describing stormwater runoff plumes requires a combination of in situ and remote sensing assessment tools, with satellite data providing valuable synoptic information. From these conclusions, the following recommendations are provided: - Future studies designed to describe stormwater plumes should include a combination of ship - and remote sensing-based methods. - CDOM is a good proxy of the freshwater runoff plume and should be added as a standard measurement parameter on water quality instrument packages. - Investigations are needed that assess on a local basis the spatial extent of ecological effects of stormwater plumes early in the storm, ideally accompanied by airborne imagery to provide improved temporal & spatial resolution, to fill in knowledge gaps. The next Bight regional monitoring program should focus on quantifying nutrient loadings and dynamics in association with stormwater runoff and other sources, and characterize their attendant ecosystem impacts such as phytoplankton blooms.

California↗

USGS2000

An overview of mining-related environmental and human health issues, Marinduque Island, Philippines: observations from a joint U.S. Geological Survey - Armed Forces Institute of Pathology reconnaissance field evaluation, May 12-19, 2000

This report summarizes results of a visit by the report authors to Marinduque Island, Philippines, in May 2000. The purpose of the visit was to conduct a preliminary examination of environmental problems created by a 1996 tailings spill from the Marcopper open-pit copper mine. The mine was operated from 1969-1996 by Macropper Mining Corperation, under 39.9% ownership, and design and management control of Placer Dome, Inc. Our trip expenses to and from the Philippines were funded by the USGS. In-country expenses were paid by the offices of Congressman Reyes and the Governor of Marinduque, Carmencita O. Reyes. This report includes observations we made based on our relatively short visit to the island, and observations based upon a preliminary review of the literature available on the islanda??s mining-environmental issues. In addition, we have included preliminary interpretations and analytical results of some water, sediment, and mine waste samples collected during our trip. We also highlight the environmental and human health issues we fell are in need of further study and consideration for mitigation or remediation. This report is preliminary and is not intended to be a comprehensive or final review of the islanda??s mining-environmental issues; many areas of further study are clearly neededa?|

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Point Reyes, California

This publication about the Offshore of Point Reyes map area includes ten map sheets that contain explanatory text, in addition to this descriptive pamphlet and a data catalog of geographic information system (GIS) files. Sheets 1, 2, and 3 combine data from four different sonar surveys to generate comprehensive high-resolution bathymetry and acoustic-backscatter coverage of the map area. These data reveal a range of physiographic features (highlighted in the perspective views on sheet 4) such as the flat, sediment-covered seafloor in Drakes Bay, as well as abundant “scour depressions” on the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf (see sheet 9) and local, tectonically controlled bedrock uplifts. To validate geological and biological interpretations of the sonar data shown in sheets 1, 2, and 3, the U.S. Geological Survey towed a camera sled over specific offshore locations, collecting both video and photographic imagery; these “ground-truth” surveying data are summarized on sheet 6. Sheet 5 is a “seafloor character” map, which classifies the seafloor on the basis of depth, slope, rugosity (ruggedness), and backscatter intensity and which is further informed by the ground-truth-survey imagery. Sheet 7 is a map of “potential habitats,” which are delineated on the basis of substrate type, geomorphology, seafloor process, or other attributes that may provide a habitat for a specific species or assemblage of organisms. Sheet 8 compiles representative seismic-reflection profiles from the map area, providing information on the subsurface stratigraphy and structure of the map area. Sheet 9 shows the distribution and thickness of young sediment (deposited over the last about 21,000 years, during the most recent sea-level rise) in both the map area and the larger Salt Point to Drakes Bay region, interpreted on the basis of the seismic-reflection data, and it identifies the Offshore of Point Reyes map area as lying within the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf, Point Reyes bar, and Bolinas shelf domains. Sheet 10 is a geologic map that merges onshore geologic mapping (compiled from existing maps by the California Geological Survey) and new offshore geologic mapping that is based on integration of high-resolution bathymetry and backscatter imagery (sheets 1, 2, 3), seafloor-sediment and rock samples (Reid and others, 2006), digital camera and video imagery (sheet 6), and high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles (sheet 8), as well as aerial-photographic interpretation of nearshore areas. The information provided by the map sheets, pamphlet, and data catalog have a broad range of applications. High-resolution bathymetry, acoustic backscatter, ground-truth-surveying imagery, and habitat mapping all contribute to habitat characterization and ecosystem-based management by providing essential data for delineation of marine protected areas and ecosystem restoration. Many of the maps provide high-resolution baselines that will be critical for monitoring environmental change associated with climate change, coastal development, or other forcings. High-resolution bathymetry is a critical component for modeling coastal flooding caused by storms and tsunamis, as well as inundation associated with longer term sea-level rise. Seismic-reflection and bathymetric data help characterize earthquake and tsunami sources, critical for natural-hazard assessments of coastal zones. Information on sediment distribution and thickness is essential to the understanding of local and regional sediment transport, as well as the development of regional sediment-management plans. In addition, siting of any new offshore infrastructure (for example, pipelines, cables, or renewable-energy facilities) will depend on high-resolution mapping. Finally, this mapping will both stimulate and enable new scientific research and also raise public awareness of, and education about, coastal environments and issues.

California↗

USGS2021

Grassland live fractional cover map creation and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis for rangeland management supporting Kenya Northern Rangelands Trust Conservancies

The handbooks and synchronized MP4 recordings provide hands-on instruction for creating and analyzing vegetation live fractional cover (LFC) maps. The methods and protocols used in the instruction materials follow those developed and recorded in Rangoonwala and Ramsey (2019). The LFC mapping and geographic information system (GIS) analyses highlight the consortium of rangeland conservancies covering the semiarid central region of Kenya (approximately 44,000 square kilometers). The instruction materials are separated into two parts: processing and map-product creation based on remote-sensing images and GIS analyses of the created maps for rangeland management. The image processing is conducted using the advanced and professional software package SeNtinels Application Platform (SNAP) that is supported and maintained by the European Space Agency. SNAP is a free image analyses software package available for download. It is largely icon driven but offers simple to advanced program inserts and batch processing. The GIS analyses are conducted using the software package Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS), another free and downloadable software. QGIS is compatible with numerous software, including the Esri suite of ArcGIS software and database structure. The image data includes both high-spatial-resolution Sentinel-2 optical data and Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Both datasets are freely available via a public portal that is maintained by the European Space Agency. The image-processing instruction handbook covers all aspects of acquiring and processing satellite-image data and importing vector-data sources into SNAP. The GIS analysis handbook covers final creation of map products from the maps created in SNAP and creation of GIS procedures in QGIS that are needed to manage the rangeland resources for wildlife and pastoral grazing. Although focused on the Kenyan conservancies and their semiarid environment, the processing methods and procedures are applicable for similar environments and management, and to a large part, even for integrated mapping and GIS functionality of any managed landscape resource. The instruction handbooks are synchronized to MP4 training videos created with U.S. Geological Survey-licensed Camtasia 9 software. The workbook and MP4 video combinations are suitable for a single user or a workshop setting.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2005

Inventory of the mosses, liverworts, and lichens of Olympic National Park, Washington- Species list

The identification of non-vascular cryptogam species (lichens, mosses, liverworts, and hornworts) is especially challenging because of their small size, their often microscopic or chemical distinguishing features, and their enormous diversity. Consequently, they are a poorly known component of Olympic National Park, despite their ecological and aesthetic importance. This project is the first attempt at a systematic, comprehensive survey of non-vascular cryptogams in the Park and presents the current species list with descriptions of the substrate and vascular vegetation type where they were observed. The authors strove to collect from as many park environments as feasible, and distributed collections along important environmental gradients in different regions of the park using vascular vegetation as an environmental indicator. They also collected opportunistically when interesting habitats or microhabitats were encountered. Finally, the authors updated the nomenclature in the Park’s previous collection of nonvascular plants. This study identified approximately 13,200 bryophyte and lichen species, adding approximately 425 new species to the Olympic National Park Herbarium. These data, combined with select literature reports and personal data from Martin and Karen Hutten, added more than 350 species to the previously documented Olympic Peninsula lichen and bryophyte list. The authors discuss the list in a local, regional, and global context of rarity, as well as cryptogam conservation and further work needed in Olympic National Park. The improved inventory of Olympic National Park cryptogams represented by this project enables Olympic National Park to protect populations of rare and sensitive species, assess the damage caused by illegal harvest, and contribute information to the Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service Sensitive Species Programs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou ( Rangifer tarandus granti ) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

Alaska↗

USGS2004

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2003

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2003 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. The study team continues to work on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year (COY). These counts are used to establish a minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 1993). A computer program that defines the rule set used by Knight et al. (1995) to differentiate unique family groups is currently under development. Once complete, we intend to use it to verify the accuracy of the rules using known bears and their telemetry locations in test runs. We hope to have this work complete by summer 2004. The grizzly bear recovery plan (USFWS 1993) established mortality quotas at 4% of the minimum population estimate derived from female with COY data and no more than 30% of the 4% (1.2%) could be female bears. Simulation modeling (Harris 1984) established sustainable mortality at around 6% of the population. We used the latest information on reproduction and survival to estimate population trajectory in the same simulation model originally used by Harris. A Wildlife Monograph has been drafted and submitted for consideration as a publication. We anticipate final word sometime during winter 2005. Our project addressing the potential application of stable isotopes and trace elements to quantify consumption rates of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki ) by grizzly bears was completed. Our manuscript on consumption rates of whitebark pine has been published (Canadian Journal of Zoology 81:763-770). A copy can be found on the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) website http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/igbst-home.htm. The manuscript on fish consumption is in final review and should be published in 2004. We began a new study in Grand Teton National Park evaluating habitat use both temporally and spatially between grizzly and black ( Ursus americanus ) bears. We will employ a new form of Global Positioning System (GPS) technology that incorporates a spread spectrum communication system. Spread spectrum allows for transfer of stored GPS locations from the collar to a remote receiving station. We tested 2 collars during the fall of 2003 and provide a summary of the results. We will attempt to deploy several of these collars during the 2004 field season. The annual reports of the IGBST summarize annual data collection. Because additional information can be obtained after publication, data summaries are subject to change. For that reason, data analyses and summaries presented in this report supersede all previously published data. The study area and sampling techniques are reported by Blanchard (1985), Mattson et al. (1991a), and Haroldson et al. (1998).

Montana↗

USGS2002

Effects of herring gulls and great black-backed gulls on breeding piping plovers, South Monomoy Island, Massachusetts. Final Report

The large population of breeding herring gulls and great black-backed gulls on South Monomoy Island, Cape Cod, Massachusetts has been thought to negatively affect the breeding success of the threatened piping plover. Following the Piping Plover Recovery Plan's call for gull colonies to be removed from piping plover breeding sites, in 1996, the USFWS conducted gull removal on part of South Monomoy Island. We determined relative gull abundance on South Monomoy Island from 1998-2000 by counting gulls within 100-m radius plots located on the shoreline. We quantified piping plover behavior and habitat use by conducting instantaneous and 5-minute behavioral observations. We quantified characteristics of piping plover nesting habitat by measuring characteristics along random transects. We measured gull abundance, beach width, and prey abundance, and then used logistic regression to determine what habitat characteristics influenced piping plover nesting area selection. We monitored piping plover reproductive success and population fluctuations on South Monomoy Island. Gull abundance in the gull-removal area was lower than gull abundance in the reference area throughout the piping plover breeding season. The difference in gull abundance between the areas did not affect piping plover behavior, nest success, chick survival, or productivity. We found that gull removal did not result in an increased piping plover population on the island. In both management areas, prenesting plovers preferred to forage in moist substrate habitats. Wide backshore and open vegetation habitats characterized nesting areas. Broods spent most of their time foraging and preferred moist substrate habitats when available. Plovers were not prevented from occupying more suitable habitat by large gulls. Fewer large gulls were observed near prenesting plovers, plover nests, and plover broods than near random plots. Fewer large gulls were observed in plover nesting areas than in unused areas when the nesting areas were defined by all area within 100-m or 500-m of a plover nest. We argue that this apparent spatial separation between piping plovers and large gulls is due to different habitat preferences among the species. We found that gull removal on South Monomoy Island did not result in increased piping plover reproductive success, and large gulls did not affect breeding piping plovers on South Monomoy Island from 1998-2000.

Book↗

USGS2013

The SAFRR tsunami scenario-physical damage in California: Chapter E in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

his chapter attempts to depict a single realistic outcome of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario in terms of physical damage to and recovery of various aspects of the built environment in California. As described elsewhere in this report, the tsunami is generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake seaward of the Alaska Peninsula on the Semidi Sector of the Alaska–Aleutian Subduction Zone, 495 miles southwest of Anchorage, at 11:50 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) on Thursday March 27, 2014, and arriving at the California coast between 4:00 and 5:40 p.m. (depending on location) the same day. Although other tsunamis could have locally greater impact, this source represents a substantial threat to the state as a whole. One purpose of this chapter is to help operators and users of coastal assets throughout California to develop emergency plans to respond to a real tsunami. Another is to identify ways that operators or owners of these assets can think through options for reducing damage before a future tsunami. A third is to inform the economic analyses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario. And a fourth is to identify research needs to better understand the possible consequences of a tsunami on these assets. The asset classes considered here include the following: Piers, cargo, buildings, and other assets at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Large vessels in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Marinas and small craft Coastal buildings Roads and roadway bridges Rail, railway bridges, and rolling stock Agriculture Fire following tsunami Each asset class is examined in a subsection of this chapter. In each subsection, we generally attempt to offer a historical review of damage. We characterize and quantify the assets exposed to loss and describe the modes of damage that have been observed in past tsunamis or are otherwise deemed likely to occur in the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Where practical, we offer a mathematical model of the damageability of assets exposed to loss. Then, applying the damageability model and the velocity, wave amplitude, and inundation models discussed in other SAFRR chapters we offer a single realistic depiction of damage. Other outcomes are of course possible for this hypothetical event. Where practical we estimate repair costs and estimate the duration required to restore the assets to their pre-tsunami condition. We identify opportunities to enhance the resiliency of the assets, either through making them less vulnerable to damage or able to recover more quickly in spite of the damage. Finally, we identify uncertainties in the modeling where research would improve our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of damage and loss or otherwise improve our ability to estimate the future impacts of tsunamis and inform risk-management decisions for tsunamis. However, it is certain that the kinds of damages discussed here have occurred in past tsunamis, even in developed nations, and in a sufficiently large event, will occur in California. Our uncertainties can operate in either direction, either leading to an overestimate of damage or an underestimate. Therefore, losses in an actual future tsunami could be greater than depicted here. Furthermore this evaluation is not intended to be an exhaustive depiction of what could happen in this or similar tsunamis. Other impacts could occur that are not presented here.

California↗

USGS2013

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: cooperator report

This document describes progress to date on the development of a harvest‐management strategy for maintaining pink‐footed goose abundance near their target level by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Many goose populations in western Europe have increased dramatically in recent decades. The Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) is a good example, increasing from about 10 thousand individuals in the early 1960’s to roughly 80 thousand today. Although these geese are a highly valued resource, the growing numbers of geese are causing agricultural conflicts in wintering and staging areas. The African‐Eurasian Waterbird Agreement (AEWA; http://www.unep‐aewa.org/) calls for means to manage populations which cause conflicts with certain human economic activities. We compiled relevant demographic and weather data and specified an annual‐cycle model for pink-footed geese that reconciles the different dates of monitoring activities and the timing of harvest-management decisions. We then developed dynamic models for survival and reproductive processes and parameterized them using available data. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, we developed a suite of nine models that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which spring temperatures are important. These nine models varied significantly in their predictions of the harvest required to stabilize current population size, ranging from a low of about 500 to a high of about 17 thousand. For comparison, the harvest in Norway and Denmark was about 11 thousand in 2011 and the population increased from 70 to 80 thousand. We relied on the passive form of adaptive management in formulating a harvest strategy. In passive adaptive management, alternative population models and their associated weights of evidence are explicitly considered in the development of an optimal harvest strategy. Unlike active adaptive management, however, there is no explicit consideration of how harvest management actions could reduce uncertainty as to the most appropriate model of population dynamics. In optimizing a harvest strategy, we assumed equal probabilities for all nine models and assumed relatively course control over harvest. We used a management objective that seeks to maximize sustainable harvest, but avoids harvest decisions that are expected to result in a subsequent population size different than the population goal of 60 thousand. Optimal harvest strategies were calculated using stochastic dynamic programming, and Monte Carlo simulations were used to investigate expected strategy performance. The optimal passive adaptive‐management strategy is expected to maintain mean population size near 60 thousand, regardless of the most appropriate model. However, mean harvest rates and harvests varied substantially depending on the most appropriate model of population dynamics. With an average number of days above freezing in May in Svalbard, optimal harvest rates (i.e., the proportion of the population to be harvested in autumn) increase rapidly once there are more than about 50 thousand birds in the population. Generally, optimal harvests were on the order of 10 – 20 thousand for population sizes > 60 thousand, and 0 – 5 thousand for population sizes < 60 thousand. For the observations of young of 15.4 thousand and adults of 54.6 thousand in autumn 2010, and 10 days above freezing in May 2011 (a relatively warm spring compared to the average of about 7), the optimal harvest rate in autumn of 2011 would have been 0.16, or a harvest of about 14 thousand. Based on the optimal strategy, hunting‐season closures would be required as the number of adults in the autumn population falls below about 52 thousand, regardless of the number of young in the population. As the number of adults and young decrease, the number of warm days in May required to keep the hunting season open increases. We also investigated the ability of the optimal strategy to stabilize the population at around 60 thousand birds, assuming varying values of the maximum harvest rate that could be implemented. Harvest strategies that contained a maximum harvest rate of 0.16 (equivalent to a harvest of about 17 thousand) were effective at stabilizing the population at 60 thousand within 4‐5 years, regardless of climate scenario. Harvest strategies with a maximum harvest rate of 0.12 (harvest ≈ 13 thousand) were also able to stabilize the population near 60 thousand, although it took more time. Harvest strategies with a maximum harvest rate of 0.08 (harvest ≈ 8 thousand) were unsuccessful at stabilizing the population at 60 thousand. Continued monitoring of the pink‐footed goose population on an annual basis is critical to an informed harvest management strategy. At a minimum, the ground census in November should be continued to determine population size and proportion of young. Continued estimates of harvest from Norway and Denmark are also necessary to help judge the credibility of the alternative population models. However, an adaptive management process that relies on periodic updating of model weights will depend on acquiring either estimates of the realized harvest rate of adults or the age composition of the harvest. We also recommend that a census conducted during spring migration be operationalized, and that estimates of survival based on mark‐recapture data be updated. Finally, the International Working Group has expressed a desire to adopt a three‐year cycle of decision making related to the regulation of pink‐footed goose harvests. The idea is that once a target harvest level is adopted, it would remain in place for three years, after which time population status would be assessed and a potentially new management action chosen. We have developed a preliminary framework to implement a three‐year cycle using stochastic dynamic programming, and we hope to have it fully operational later this year . We note, however, that application of this 3‐year framework will still require annual resource monitoring and assessments to facilitate learning, and to allow managers the opportunity to respond to any unforeseen change in resource conditions.

Report↗

USGS2006

Drought of 1998-2002: impacts on Florida's hydrology and landscape

Lower than normal precipitation caused a severe statewide drought in Florida from 1998 to 2002. Based on precipitation and streamflow records dating to the early 1900s, the drought was one of the worst ever to affect the State. In terms of severity, this drought was comparable to the drought of 1949-1957 in duration and had record-setting low flows in several basins. The drought was particularly severe over the 5-year period in the northwest, northeast, and southwest regions of Florida, where rainfall deficits ranged from 9-10 in. below normal (southwest Florida) to 38-40 in. below normal (northwest Florida). Within these regions, the drought caused record-low streamflows in several river basins, increased freshwater withdrawals, and created hazardous conditions ripe for wildfires, sinkhole development, and even the draining of lakes. South Florida was affected primarily in 2001, when the region experienced below-average streamflow conditions; however, cumulative rainfall in south Florida never fell below the 30-year normal. The four regions of Florida, as referred to throughout this report, are defined based upon U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data collection regions in Florida. Record-low flows were reported at several streamflow-gaging stations throughout the State, including the Withlacoochee River at Trilby, which reached zero flow on June 10-11, 2000, for the first time during the period of record (1928-2004). Streamflow conditions varied across the State from 31 percent of average flow in 2000 in southwest Florida, to 100 percent of average in 1999 in south Florida. Low-flow recurrence intervals during the drought ranged from less than 2 years at three locations to greater than 50 years at many locations. During the 1998-2002 drought, ground-water levels at many wells across the State declined to elevations not seen in many years. At some wells, ground-water levels reached record lows for their period of record. Florida Water Management Districts responded by issuing water-shortage mandates to curb water use during the spring months of 2000. Generally, freshwater withdrawals increased 13 percent between 1995 and 2000 as a result of the dry conditions. Hundreds of new sinkholes developed across the State. Lake Jackson, in northwest Florida near Tallahassee, experienced its eighth and ninth drawdowns of the past 100 years, and became nearly dry. Numerous other lakes in northern and central Florida experienced similar events. Water restrictions were put into effect in urban areas of the northeast, southwest, and south Florida regions. Wildfires periodically raged over parts of Florida throughout the period, when tinder-dry undergrowth caught fire from lightning strikes or manmade causes. Smoke from these fires caused traffic delays as sections of major highways and interstate lanes forced traffic to slow to a crawl or were closed. Wildfire statistics (Florida Division of Forestry) show that 25,137 fires burned 1.5 million acres between 1998 and 2002. Finally, rainfall that occurred in late 2002, in 2003, and from a tropical storm and four hurricanes in 2004 ended this drought.

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USGS1985

Environmental systems and management activities on the Kennedy Space Center, Merritt Island, Florida: results of a modeling workshop

In the early 1960's, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began purchasing 140,000 acres on Merritt Island, Florida, in order to develop a center for space exploration. Most of this land was acquired to provide a safety and security buffer around NASA facilities. NASA, as the managing agency for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), is responsible for preventing or controlling environmental pollution from the Federal facilities and activities at the Space Center and is committed to use all practicable means to protect and enhance the quality of the surrounding environment. The Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge was established in 1963 when management authority for undeveloped lands at KSC was transferred to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In addition to manage for 11 Federally-listed threatened and endangered species and other resident and migratory fish and wildlife populations, the Refuge has comanagement responsibility for 19,000 acres of mosquito control impoundments and 2,500 acres of citrus groves. The Canaveral National Seashore was developed in 1975 when management of a portion of the coastal lands was transferred from NASA to the National Park Service. This multiagency jurisdiction on Merritt Island has resulted in a complex management environment. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted May 21-25, 1984, at the Kennedy Space Center to: (1) enhance communication among the agencies with management responsibilities on Merritt Island; (2) integrate available information concerning the development, management, and ecology of Merritt Island; and (3) identify key research and monitoring needs associated with the management and use of the island's resources. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a model that would simulate primary management and use activities on Merritt Island and their effects on upland, impoundment, and estuarine vegetation and associated wildlife. The simulation model is composed of four connected submodels. The Uplands submodel calculates changes in acres and structural components of vegetation communities resulting from succession, fire, facilities development, and shuttle launch depositions, as well as the quantity and quality of surface runoff and aquifer input to an impoundment and an estuary. The Impoundment submodel next determines water quality and quantity and changes in vegetation resulting from water level manipulation and prescribed burning. The Estuary submodel than determines water quality parameters and acres of seagrass beds. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates habitat suitability indices for key species of interest, based on vegetation conditions in the uplands and impoundments and on several hydrologic parameters. The model represents a hypothetical management unit with 2,500 acres of uplands, a 600-acre impoundment, and a 1,500-acre section of estuary. Two management scenarios were run to analyze model behavior. The scenarios differ in the frequency of shuttle launches and prescribed burning, the extent of facilities development, the amount of land disposed waste material applied, and the nature and timing of impoundment water level control. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. Open communication occurs among the Federal, State, and local agencies involved with activities on Merritt Island and the agencies have a cooperative working relationship. The workshop provided an opportunity for all of these agencies to meet at one time and have focused discussions on the key environmental and multiagency resource management issues. The workshop framework helped to integrate information and assumptions from a number of disciplines and agencies. This integration occurred in the computer simulation model and among workshop participants as submodel linkages were developed and scenario results discussed. A number of research needs were identified at the workshop during the model building and testing exercises and associated discussions. These needs were based on the informed judgement of researchers and managers familiar with Merritt Island or similar areas, rather than on a comprehensive literature review of sensitivity analysis of the preliminary model developed at the workshop. Some of the needs can be addressed by interpreting the results of completed studies from similar geographic areas as they relate to Merritt Island, while other will require additional research studies on Merritt Island. Major research needs associated with the Upland submodel include behavior of the near-surface aquifer, factors limiting slash pine regeneration, frequency and effects of natural fire on various cover types, cumulative effects of shuttle launches, and fate in upland soils of nitrogen and phosphorous from land applied waste material. Key Impoundment submodel needs include documentation of vegetation changes in response to altered water depth, salinity, and nutrient concentrations and better specification of the functional characteristics of impoundments as chemical filters. Important information gaps identified in the Estuary submodel include a more complete analysis of factors contributing to phytoplankton abundance, evaluation of sources of turbidity other than phytoplankton, and identification and quantification of factors limiting seagrass distribution. Primary research needs associated with the Wildlife submodel include a survey of breeding habitat, production data, and harvest data for mottled ducks; data on the emigration and immigration of juvenile mullet (and other transient fish) in the impoundment; the contribution of various seagrasses to habitat requirements of sea trout; and the effects of dissolved oxygen on survival of juvenile sea trout. Ideally, the modeling workshop process is iterative in nature. Periods between workshops are used for research, data collection, and model refinement. Each workshop integrates information collected since the last workshop and produces a more credible model that is more useful in evaluating management alternatives. Participants felt that continued application of this process would help provide ongoing integration and communication among agencies and would allow each agency's planning and management activities to be viewed within the context of an overall assessment.

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USGS2013

Salton Sea ecosystem monitoring and assessment plan

The Salton Sea, California’s largest lake, provides essential habitat for several fish and wildlife species and is an important cultural and recreational resource. It has no outlet, and dissolved salts contained in the inflows concentrate in the Salton Sea through evaporation. The salinity of the Salton Sea, which is currently nearly one and a half times the salinity of ocean water, has been increasing as a result of evaporative processes and low freshwater inputs. Further reductions in inflows from water conservation, recycling, and transfers will lower the level of the Salton Sea and accelerate the rate of salinity increases, reduce the suitability of fish and wildlife habitat, and affect air quality by exposing lakebed playa that could generate dust. Legislation enacted in 2003 to implement the Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) stated the Legislature’s intent for the State of California to undertake the restoration of the Salton Sea ecosystem. As required by the legislation, the California Resources Agency (now California Natural Resources Agency) produced the Salton Sea Ecosystem Restoration Study and final Programmatic Environmental Impact Report (PEIR; California Resources Agency, 2007) with the stated purpose to “develop a preferred alternative by exploring alternative ways to restore important ecological functions of the Salton Sea that have existed for about 100 years.” A decision regarding a preferred alternative currently resides with the California State Legislature (Legislature), which has yet to take action. As part of efforts to identify an ecosystem restoration program for the Salton Sea, and in anticipation of direction from the Legislature, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established a team to develop a monitoring and assessment plan (MAP). This plan is the product of that effort. The goal of the MAP is to provide a guide for data collection, analysis, management, and reporting to inform management actions for the Salton Sea ecosystem. Monitoring activities are directed at species and habitats that could be affected by or drive future restoration activities. The MAP is not intended to be a prescriptive document. Rather, it is envisioned to be a flexible, program-level guide that articulates high-level goals and objectives, and establishes broad sideboards within which future project-level investigations and studies will be evaluated and authorized. As such, the MAP, by design, does not, for example, include detailed protocols describing how investigations will be implemented. It is anticipated that detailed study proposals will be prepared as part of an implementation plan that will include such things as specific sampling objectives, sampling schemes, and statistical and spatial limits.

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USGS2014

Streamflow statistics for development of water rights claims for the Jarbidge Wild and Scenic River, Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness, Idaho, 2013-14: a supplement to Scientific Investigations Report 2013-5212

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), estimated streamflow statistics for stream segments designated “Wild,” “Scenic,” or “Recreational” under the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System in the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness in southwestern Idaho. The streamflow statistics were used by the BLM to develop and file a draft, federal reserved water right claim to protect federally designated “outstanding remarkable values” in the Jarbidge River. The BLM determined that the daily mean streamflow equaled or exceeded 20, 50, and 80 percent of the time during bimonthly periods (two periods per month) and the bankfull (66.7-percent annual exceedance probability) streamflow are important thresholds for maintaining outstanding remarkable values. Although streamflow statistics for the Jarbidge River below Jarbidge, Nevada (USGS 13162225) were published previously in 2013 and used for the draft water right claim, the BLM and USGS have since recognized the need to refine streamflow statistics given the approximate 40 river mile distance and intervening tributaries between the original point of estimation (USGS 13162225) and at the mouth of the Jarbidge River, which is the downstream end of the Wild and Scenic River segment. A drainage-area-ratio method was used in 2013 to estimate bimonthly exceedance probability streamflow statistics at the mouth of the Jarbidge River based on available streamgage data on the Jarbidge and East Fork Jarbidge Rivers. The resulting bimonthly streamflow statistics were further adjusted using a scaling factor calculated from a water balance on streamflow statistics calculated for the Bruneau and East Fork Bruneau Rivers and Sheep Creek. The final, adjusted bimonthly exceedance probability and bankfull streamflow statistics compared well with available verification datasets (including discrete streamflow measurements made at the mouth of the Jarbidge River) and are considered the best available estimates for streamflow statistics in the Jarbidge Wild and Scenic River segment.

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