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Database of biodiversity, habitat, and aquatic-resource quantification tools used in market-based conservation — 2022 update

Market-based conservation makes use of economic incentives to promote actions that avoid, minimize, or compensate for detrimental effects on natural resources and the environment. Examples of market-based conservation mechanisms include aquatic-resource (such as, streams, wetlands, and estuaries) compensatory mitigation, conservation banking, habitat exchanges, and payments for ecosystem services. A critical component in the operation of these market-based conservation mechanisms is the methods (hereafter referred to as “quantification tools”) used to assess existing (sometimes referred to as “baseline”) or potential site conditions. Quantification tools are used to assign values to the benefits provided by preservation, restoration, or enhancement actions, as well as the negative effects of human activities (for example, infrastructure development, energy extraction, and anthropogenic disasters). In 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published a database describing the attributes of 69 quantification tools developed for United States conservation markets. The database focused on tools used for species-based mitigation, payments for ecosystem services, and ecolabel programs (Chiavacci and Pindilli, 2020). Recently, the USGS, in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised the original database by updating the existing tool information, adding newly developed tools, and broadening the scope to include tools developed for compensatory mitigation under the Clean Water Act Section 404 Regulatory Program.

Fact Sheet

Nickel-cobalt laterites: A deposit model

Nickel-cobalt (Ni-Co) laterite deposits are supergene enrichments of Ni±Co that form from intense chemical and mechanical weathering of ultramafic parent rocks. These regolith deposits typically form within 26 degrees of the equator, although there are a few exceptions. They form in active continental margins and stable cratonic settings. It takes as little as one million years for a laterite profile to develop. Three subtypes of Ni-Co laterite deposits are classified according to the dominant Ni-bearing mineralogy, which include hydrous magnesium (Mg)-silicate, smectite, and oxide. These minerals form in weathering horizons that begin with the unweathered protolith at the base, saprolite next, a smectite transition zone only in profiles where drainage is very poor, followed by limonite, and then capped with ferricrete at the top. The saprolite contains Ni-rich hydrous Mg-silicates, the Ni-rich clays occur in the transition horizon, and Ni-rich goethite occurs in the limonite. Although these subtypes of deposits are the more widely used terms for classification of Ni-Co laterite deposits, most deposits have economic concentrations of Ni in more than one horizon. Because of their complex mineralogy and heterogeneous concentrations, mining of these metallurgically complex deposits can be challenging. Deposits range in size from 2.5 to about 400 million tonnes, with Ni and Co grades of 0.66–2.4 percent (median 1.3) and 0.01–0.15 percent (median 0.08), respectively. Modern techniques of ore delineation and mineralogical identification are being developed to aid in streamlining the Ni-Co laterite mining process, and low-temperature and low-pressure ore processing techniques are being tested that will treat the entire weathered profile. There is evidence that the production of Ni and Co from laterites is more energy intensive than that of sulfide ores, reflecting the environmental impact of producing a Ni-Co laterite deposit. Tailings may include high levels of magnesium, sulfate, and manganese and have the potential to be physically unstable.

Scientific Investigations Report

Agriculture — A river runs through it — The connections between agriculture and water quality

Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and longterm economic, social, and environmental benefits that make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. In 1991, Congress established the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) to address where, when, why, and how the Nation’s water quality has changed, or is likely to change in the future, in response to human activities and natural factors. Since then, NAWQA has been a leading source of scientific data and knowledge used by national, regional, state, and local agencies to develop science-based policies and management strategies to improve and protect water resources used for drinking water, recreation, irrigation, energy development, and ecosystem needs. Plans for the third decade of NAWQA (2013–23) address priority water-quality issues and science needs identified by NAWQA stakeholders, such as the Advisory Committee on Water Information and the National Research Council, and are designed to meet increasing challenges related to population growth, increasing needs for clean water, and changing land-use and weather patterns. This report is one of a series of publications, The Quality of Our Nation’s Waters , which describes major findings of the NAWQA Project on water-quality issues of regional and national concern and provides science-based information for assessing and managing the quality of our groundwater resources. Other reports in this series focus on occurrence and distribution of nutrients, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds in streams and groundwater, the effects of contaminants and stream-flow alteration on the condition of aquatic communities in streams, and on the quality of groundwater from private domestic and public supply wells. Each reports builds toward a more comprehensive understanding of the quality of regional and national water resources. All NAWQA reports are available online ( https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/bib/ ). We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water-resource needs and will foster increased citizen awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Circular

The National Coal Resource Assessment Overview

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has completed the National Coal Resource Assessment (NCRA), a multiyear project by the USGS Energy Resources Program, in partnership with State geological surveys in the coal producing regions of the United States. The NCRA is the first digital national coal-resource assessment. Coal beds and zones were assessed in five regions that account for more than 90 percent of the Nation's coal production - (1) the Appalachian Basin, (2) the Illinois Basin, (3) the Gulf Coastal Plain, (4) the Colorado Plateau, and (5) the Northern Rocky Mountains and Great Plains. The purpose of this Professional Paper, USGS Professional Paper 1625-F, is to present a tabulation and overview of the assessment results, insight into the methods used in the NCRA, and supplemental information on coal quality, economics, and other factors that affect coal production in the United States.

Professional Paper

Understanding the influence of nutrients on stream ecosystems in agricultural landscapes

Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. In 1991, Congress established the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) to address where, when, why, and how the Nation’s water quality has changed, or is likely to change in the future, in response to human activities and natural factors. Since then, NAWQA has been a leading source of scientific data and knowledge used by national, regional, State, and local agencies to develop science-based policies and management strategies to improve and protect water resources used for drinking water, recreation, irrigation, energy development, and ecosystem needs ( https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/applications/ ). Plans for the third decade of NAWQA (2013–23) address priority water-quality issues and science needs identified by NAWQA stakeholders, such as the Advisory Committee on Water Information and the National Research Council, and are designed to meet increasing challenges related to population growth, increasing needs for clean water, and changing land-use and weather patterns. Excess nutrients are a pervasive problem of streams, lakes, and coastal waters. The current report, “The Quality of Our Nation’s Waters—Understanding the Effects of Nutrients on Stream Ecosystems in Agricultural Landscapes,” presents a summary of results from USGS investigations conducted from 2003 to 2011 on processes that influence nutrients and how nutrient enrichment can alter biological components of agricultural streams. This study included collecting data from 232 sites distributed among eight study areas. This report summarizes findings on processes that influence nutrients and how nutrient enrichment can alter biological communities in agricultural streams. These findings are relevant to local, State, regional, and national decision-makers involved in efforts to (1) better understand the influence of nutrients on agricultural streams, (2) develop nutrient criteria for streams and rivers, (3) reduce nutrients to streams and downstream receiving waters, and (4) develop tools for tracking nutrient and biological conditions following nutrient reduction strategies. All NAWQA reports are available online at https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/bib/ . We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water-resource needs and will foster increased citizen awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Central Columbia-Yakima River Basins, Great River

A feasibility study of geological CO2 sequestration in the Ordos Basin, China

The Shaanxi Province/Wyoming CCS Partnership (supported by DOE NETL) aims to store commercial quantities of CO2 safely and permanently in the Ordovician Majiagou Formation in the northern Ordos Basin, Shaanxi Province, China. This objective is imperative because at present, six coal-to-liquid facilities in Shaanxi Province are capturing and venting significant quantities of CO2. The Wyoming State Geological Survey and the Shaanxi Provincial Institute of Energy Resource and Chemical Engineering conducted a feasibility study to determine the potential for geological CO2 sequestration in the northern Ordos Basin near Yulin. The Shaanbei Slope of the Ordos Basin is a huge monoclinal structure with a high-priority sequestration reservoir (Majiagou Formation) that lies beneath a 2,000+ meter-thick sequence of Mesozoic rocks containing a multitude of lowpermeability lithologies. The targeted Ordovician Majiagou Formation in the location of interest is more than 700 meters thick. The carbonate reservoir is located at depths where pressures and temperatures are well above the supercritical point of CO2. The targeted reservoir contains high-salinity brines (20,000-50,000 ppm) that have little or no economic value. The targeted reservoir is continuous as inferred from well logs, and cores show that porosity ranges from 1 to 15% with average measured porosity of 8%, and that permeability ranges from 1-35 md. This paper focuses on calculations that will help evaluate the capacity estimates through the use of high-resolution multiphase numerical simulation models, as well as a more simple volumetric approach. The preliminary simulation results show that the Ordovician Majiagou Formation in the Ordos Basin has excellent potential for geological CO2 sequestration and could store the CO2 currently emitted by coal-to-liquid facilities in Shaanxi Province for hundreds of years (i.e., 9 Mt/year CO2; 450 Mt over a 50-year period at one injection site). ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Conference Paper

Decision analysis to advance environmental sustainability

Decision analysis provides a robust framework for complex decisions related to environmental sustainability and conservation, including for energy and water, fisheries and wildlife management, agriculture, and climate change response. The complexities of these problems stem from their large scope and scale, which leads to multiple decision makers, stakeholders, rightsholders, and other entities with potentially competing objectives. These problems often are time limited (e.g., urgent action is required to prevent species’ extinction), involve management interventions over long time scales and delayed responses to management (deep uncertainty), and are impeded by limited resources (funding, capacity, etc.). In this Special Issue on “Decision Analysis to Advance Environmental Sustainability,” we present five case studies of applications of decision analysis to complex problems in environmental sustainability and conservation. These case studies incorporate multiple objectives related to ecological and environmental sustainability, economic and social concerns, and logistics of implementation. They showcase a wide range of tools and applications to these problems. We also provide suggestions for new avenues of research and application of decision analysis to problems of environmental sustainability and conservation, including how to incorporate other decision-making tools into decision analysis processes, how to broaden the reach of decision analysis to other sustainability problems, how to incorporate more stakeholders and rightsholders into the decision process, the potential to incorporate new technology into these processes, identifying more creative alternatives, how to secure more funding, ways to move from decision to action, and how to move beyond status quo to make big transitions necessary to achieve sustainability.

Decision Analysis

Susitna Hydroelectric Project: terrestrial environmental workshop and preliminary simulation model

The technical feasibility, economic viability, and environmental impacts of a hydroelectric development project in the Susitna River Basin are being studied by Acres American, Inc. on behalf of the Alaska Power Authority. As part of these studies, Acres American recently contracted LGL Alaska Research Associates, Inc. to coordinate the terrestrial environmental studies being performed by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and, as subcontractors to LGL, several University of Alaska research groups. LGL is responsible for further quantifying the potential impacts of the project on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for developing a plan to mitigate adverse impacts on the terrestrial environment. The impact assessment and mitigation plan will be included as part of a license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) scheduled for the first quarter of 1983. The quantification of impacts, mitigation planning, and design of future research is being organized using a computer simulation modelling approach. Through a series of workshops attended by researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers, a computer model is being developed and refined for use in the quantification of impacts on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for evaluating different mitigation measures such as habitat enhancement and the designation of replacement lands to be managed by wildlife habitat. This report describes the preliminary model developed at the first workshop held August 23 -27, 1982 in Anchorage.

Report

Engineering and Economics of the USGS Circum-Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal (CARA) Project

This Open-File report contains illustrative materials, in the form of PowerPoint slides, used for an oral presentation given at the Fourth U.S. Geological Survey Workshop on Reserve Growth of petroleum resources held on March 10-11, 2008. The presentation focused on engineering and economic aspects of the Circum-Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal (CARA) project, with a special emphasis on the costs related to the development of hypothetical oil and gas fields of different sizes and reservoir characteristics in the North Danmarkshavn Basin off the northeast coast of Greenland. The individual PowerPoint slides highlight the topics being addressed in an abbreviated format; they are discussed below, and are amplified with additional text as appropriate. Also included in this report are the summary results of a typical ?run? to generate the necessary capital and operating costs for the development of an offshore oil field off the northeast coast of Greenland; the data are displayed in MS Excel format generated using Questor software (IHS Energy, Inc.). U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) acknowledges that this report includes data supplied by IHS Energy, Inc.; Copyright (2008) all rights reserved. IHS Energy has granted USGS the permission to publish this report.

Open-File Report

Fisheries sustainability: Perceptions from the ninth World Fisheries Congress

The World Fisheries Congress (WFC) is one of the largest global gatherings of fisheries professionals and scientists. It is held every 4 years with the purpose of sharing ideas and perspectives about new research, emerging issues, scientific breakthroughs, and governance related to fisheries science, industry, conservation, and management. The ninth WFC, held in Seattle (USA) in 2024, focused on fish and fisheries at the food–water–energy nexus and understanding fisheries sustainability from diverse perspectives. Fisheries sustainability is a goal shared globally that faces challenges across spatial scales from the implementation of good governance and accelerating anthropogenic pressures. Leveraging the unique opportunity to gain insights from WFC delegates, this study assesses perceptions of fisheries sustainability from diverse representation across career stage, geo­graphic region, and professional and cultural backgrounds. Survey results show that respondents (i.e., WFC delegates who chose to take the survey) perceived limited progress towards fisheries sustainability, often with a variable and unclear definition of what sustainability entails. Fish were primarily valued from a provisioning resource perspective, with environmental aspects of fisheries management and conservation seen as the area with the most progress and the greatest needs, rather than economic or social dimensions of fisheries.

Fisheries

Water-power resources in upper Carson River basin, California - Nevada

West Fork Carson River offers the best opportunity for power development in the Carson River basin. The Hope Valley reservoir site could be developed to provide adequate storage regulation and concentration of fall would permit utilization of 1,400 feet of head in 51h miles below the clam site, or 1,900 feet of head in about 972 miles below the dam site; however, the average annual runoff susceptible of development is only about 70,000 acre-feet which limits the power that could be developed continuously in an average year with regulation to about 8,700 kilowatts utilizing 1,400 feet of head, or 12,000 kilowatts utilizing 1,900 feet of head. The method and degree of development will be determined to large extent by the method devised to supplement regulated flows from the Hope Valley reservoir to supply the water already appropriated for irrigation. If the Hope Valley site and the Watasheamu site on East Fork Carson River were developed coordinately water could be transferred to the West Fork for distribution through canals leading from that stream thus satisfying the deficiency due to regulation at Hope Valley and release of stored water on a power schedule. This would permit utilization of the entire 1,900 feet of fall. Independent development of the West Fork for optimum power production would require re-regulation of releases from Hope Valley reservoir and storage of a considerable part of the fall and winter flow for use during the irrigation season. Adequate storage capacity is apparently not available on the West Fork below Hope Valley; but offstream storage may be available in Diamond Valley which could be utilized by diversion from the West Fork near Woodfords. This would limit the utilization of the stream for power purposes to the development of the 1,400 feet of head between the Hope Valley dam site and Wood fords. In a year of average discharge East Fork Carson River and three of its principal tributaries could be developed to produce about 13,500 kilowatts of firm power upstream of the Watasheamu site, which has been proposed as the location of a storage reservoir, the principal use of which would be for irrigation and flood control purposes. Substantial storage regulation would be required because of the seasonal variation in flow; and while sufficient storage capacity is available for such regulation, its value for power development is limited because of the lack of concentration of fall below the storage sites where head could be economically developed. The Watasheamu reservoir with a powerplant near the Horseshoe: Bend site could be operated to develop about 5,400 kilowatts of continuous power in a year of average discharge; however, priority to use of water for irrigation purposes would undoubtedly require operation of the Watasheamu reservoir on a schedule unfavorable to the production of firm power. It is estimated that 47 million kilowatt-hours represents the maximum generation capability of a plant at the Horseshoe Bend site in year of average discharge and a large proportion of this amount would be generated during the period of peak irrigation demand and would be seasonal in nature. Installation of about 7,000 kilowatts of capacity in a plant at the Horseshoe Bend site appears feasible. Annual energy generation would probably be less than the maximum represented by streamflow, depending on the magnitude of releases from the Watasheamu reservoir for irrigation and the demand for seasonal power. It is judged, from a general consideration of the probable cost of the required Structures in relation to the benefits which would accrue from the power that could be produced, that development of East and West Forks Carson River for power purposes only would not be feasible.

California, Nevada

Origin of precambrian iron formations

A statistical study of the chemical composition of the Precambrian iron formations of the Canadian Shield affords a new approach to the origin of these unusual formations . The average total iron content of 2,200 samples from the literature and from unpublished mining company analyses is 26.7 percent Fe. The average Fe content for 16 iron formations in the United States and Canada ranges from 24.5 to 34.1 percent. Low contents of A1203, Ti02, P2O5, and CaO characterize the Precambrian iron formations compared to the relatively large amounts of these constituents in the post- Precambrian iron -bearing sediments. The chemical data emphasize that whereas iron , manganese, and silica were transported and deposited together in the cherty iron formations of the Precambrian , these same elements were chemically differentiated in younger geological time in large but separate deposits of iron and silica. Isotopic age determinations indicate that cherty iron formations were deposited during a long interval of geologic time from approximately 1,700 to 3,000 million years ago. A model is proposed to explain the origin of the iron formations of the Lake Superior type based on the absence or marked deficiency of free oxygen in the atmosphere prior to the Late Precambrian . Lateritic weathering under these conditions permitted the transport of iron and manganese together with silica. The weathered mantle effectively retained aluminum, titanium, phosphorus, and colloidal clay. Graphitic material of biogenic origin is closely associated with the Precambrian iron formations . Although it is uncertain whether iron was precipitated directly through biologic processes, the removal of C02 and the liberation of oxygen to the sea water through photosynthesis of primitive plants undoubtedly influenced the energy relationships among the iron minerals. As a result of the variable conditions the iron formations commonly are characterized by nonequilibrium mineral assemblages. In Late Precambrian time a critical level of free oxygen in the atmosphere was attained permitting a marked acceleration in plant growth and in accretion of oxygen. This stage in the development of an oxygenated atmosphere was reached at least 1,200 million years ago and effectively curtailed the development of cherty iron formations of the Lake Superior type.

Economic Geology

Shift in Global Tantalum Mine Production, 2000–2014

Introduction Tantalum has a unique set of properties that make it useful in a number of diverse applications. The ability of the metal to store and release electrical energy makes it ideally suited for use in certain types of capacitors that are widely used in modern electronics. Approximately 60 percent of global tantalum consumption is in the electronics industry. The ductility and corrosion resistance of the metal lends itself to application in the chemical processing industry, and its high melting point and high strength retention at elevated temperatures make it an important component of super alloys used in aircraft engines. As a major industrialized nation, the United States is a leading consumer of tantalum and tantalum-containing products. Domestic deposits typically are of low grade, and no tantalum has been recovered from mining activities in the United States since 1959. Consequently, the United States is nearly completely reliant on imports to meet its domestic consumption of tantalum for economic and national security needs. The recovery of tantalum from mine production is economically viable in only a few countries. Although developed countries dominated tantalum mine production in the early 2000s, production today is dominated by countries in the Great Lakes Region of Africa. There is concern that the sales of minerals, including columbite-tantalite or “coltan,” a mineral from which tantalum is derived, have helped finance rebel groups accused of violating human rights as part of the continuing armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring countries. These accusations have prompted the passage of legislation in the United States to curb the procurement of these mineral commodities, referred to as “conflict minerals,” from the DRC. Specifically, section 1502 of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Public Law 111–203, 124 Stat. 2213–2218) requires companies that source tantalum, tin, tungsten, and gold (3TG) to perform due diligence on their supply chains to determine if the materials they use originate from the DRC or adjoining countries (defined as sharing a border with the DRC). The DRC, Rwanda, and surrounding countries are not globally significant sources of tin, tungsten, or gold, accounting for only about 2 percent of the mined world supply for each of these elements. The region has, however, evolved to become the world’s largest producer of mined tantalum. A further complication of the production of tantalum stems from the opacity of the tantalum market. Unlike most base and precious metals, tantalum concentrates are not publicly traded through commodities exchanges but are bought and sold through networks of dealers and on contract between producers and consumers, some of whom may not provide accurate statistical data concerning the amounts, origins, and destination of the concentrates. Some price data can be found in trade journals or in other publications; however, there are no recognized official set exchange prices for either concentrate or tantalum metal. Because price is determined by negotiation between buyer and seller, published prices for concentrate are probably not representative of global prices paid for concentrate. The development of a mine-to-market supply-chain analysis is complicated and difficult because many of the industry participants that produce, trade, and consume tantalum do not publish statistical information, contracts are long term between miners and buyers, and much of the industry is vertically integrated. As a result of these and other considerations, tantalum is considered by many to be a “critical” commodity. This fact sheet identifies and addresses the major geographic shifts in the source of mine production of tantalum which have occurred over the past 15 years, some of the factors that drove this shift, and some of the related consequences. One of the activities of the U.S. Geological Survey National Minerals Information Center (USGS-NMIC) is to analyze global supply chains and characterize major components of mineral and material flows from ore extraction through processing to first tier products. These analyses support the core mission of the USGS-NMIC as the Federal entity responsible for the collection, analysis, and dissemination of objective, unbiased, factual information on minerals essential to the U.S. economy and national security.

Fact Sheet

Utica/Point Pleasant brine isotopic compositions (δ7Li, δ11B, δ138Ba) elucidate mechanisms of lithium enrichment in the Appalachian Basin

Global Li production will require a ~500 % increase to meet 2050 projected energy storage demands. One potential source is oil and gas wastewater (i.e., produced water or brine), which naturally has high total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations, that can also be enriched in Li (>100 mg/L). Understanding the sources and mechanisms responsible for high naturally-occurring Li concentrations can aid in efficient targeting of these brines. The isotopic composition (δ 7 Li, δ 11 B, δ 138 Ba) of produced water and core samples from the Utica Shale and Point Pleasant Formation (UPP) in the Appalachian Basin, USA indicates that depth-dependent thermal maturity and water-rock interaction, including diagenetic clay mineral transformations, likely control Li concentrations. A survey of Li content in produced waters throughout the USA indicates that Appalachian Basin brines from the Marcellus Shale to the UPP have the potential for economic resource recovery.

Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia

Global tellurium supply potential from electrolytic copper refining

The transition towards renewable energy requires increasing quantities of nonfuel mineral commodities, including tellurium used in certain photovoltaics. While demand for tellurium may increase markedly, the potential to increase tellurium supply is not well-understood. In this analysis, we estimate the quantity of tellurium contained in anode slimes generated by electrolytic copper refining by country between 1986 and 2018, including uncertainties. For 2018, the results indicate that 1930 (1500-2700, 95% confidence interval) metric tons of tellurium were contained in anode slimes globally. This is nearly quadruple the reported tellurium production for that year. China has the greatest potential to increase tellurium supplies. However, most of the tellurium potentially recoverable by Chinese refineries appears to come from copper mined elsewhere. Further research into the business decisions associated with tellurium recovery may help translate the physical availability of tellurium into economic availability. The methodology presented here can be applied to other byproduct elements.

Resources, Conservation & Recycling

Materials flow of indium in the United States in 2008 and 2009

Indium is a material that has many applications. It is used by anyone who watches television or views a computer screen. It is found in solar energy arrays and in soldering applications that are required to be lead free. In 2009, about 550 metric tons (t) of indium metal was produced from primary sources world-wide; it was estimated that the United States consumed about 110 t of indium metal (20 percent of world primary production). However, when imports of consumer products that contain indium are considered, the United States consumed about 200 t of indium (36 percent of world primary production). When one considers the recovery from the low-efficiency sputtering process that coats indium-tin oxide onto glass and other surfaces, the recycling rate (within the manufacturing process that uses indium-tin oxide in flat panel displays approaches 36 percent. However, indium recovery from old scrap generated from end-of-life consumer products is not sufficiently economic to add significantly to secondary production. Between 1988 and 2010, indium prices averaged $381 per kilogram (in constant 2000 dollars). However, prices have been quite volatile (deviating from the average of $381 per kilogram by ±$199 per kilogram, a 52 percent difference from the average), reflecting short-term disequilibrium of supply and demand but also responsiveness of supply to demand. The dynamics of zinc smelting govern the primary supply of indium because indium is a byproduct of zinc smelting. Secondary indium supply, which accounts for about one-half of total indium supply, is governed by indium prices and technological advances in recovery. Indium demand is expected to grow because the number and volume of cutting edge technology applications that depend on indium are expected to grow.

Circular

Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower

Numerous hydropower facilities are under construction or planned in tropical and subtropical rivers worldwide. While dams are typically designed considering historic river discharge regimes, climate change may induce large-scale alterations in river hydrology. Here we analyze how future climate change will affect river hydrology, electricity generation, and economic viability of > 350 potential hydropower dams across the Amazon, Earth’s largest river basin and a global hotspot for future hydropower development. Midcentury projections for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios show basin-wide reductions of river discharge (means, 13 and 16%, respectively) and hydropower generation (19 and 27%). Declines are sharper for dams in Brazil, which harbors 60% of the proposed projects. Climate change will cause more frequent low-discharge interruption of hydropower generation and less frequent full-capacity operation. Consequently, the minimum electricity sale price for projects to break even more than doubles at many proposed dams, rendering much of future Amazon hydropower less competitive than increasingly lower cost renewable sources such as wind and solar. Climate-smart power systems will be fundamental to support environmentally and financially sustainable energy development in hydropower-dependent regions.

Global Environmental Change

A framework for quantitative assessment of impacts related to energy and mineral resource development

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and piñon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. The framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.

Natural Resources Research