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1,661 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Subduction zone geometry modulates the megathrust earthquake cycle: Magnitude, recurrence, and variability

Megathrust geometric properties exhibit some of the strongest correlations with maximum earthquake magnitude in global surveys of large subduction zone earthquakes, but the mechanisms through which fault geometry influences subduction earthquake cycle dynamics remain unresolved. Here, we develop 39 models of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) on variably-dipping planar and variably-curved nonplanar megathrusts using the volumetric, high-order accurate code tandem to account for fault curvature. We vary the dip, downdip curvature and width of the seismogenic zone to examine how slab geometry mechanically influences megathrust seismic cycles, including the size, variability, and interevent timing of earthquakes. Dip and curvature control characteristic slip styles primarily through their influence on seismogenic zone width: wider seismogenic zones allow shallowly-dipping megathrusts to host larger earthquakes than steeply-dipping ones. Under elevated pore pressure and less strongly velocity-weakening friction, all modeled fault geometries host uniform periodic ruptures. In contrast, shallowly-dipping and sharply-curved megathrusts host multi-period supercycles of slow-to-fast, small-to-large slip events under higher effective stresses and more strongly velocity-weakening friction. We discuss how subduction zones' maximum earthquake magnitudes may be primarily controlled by the dip and dimensions of the seismogenic zone, while second-order effects from structurally-derived mechanical heterogeneity modulate the recurrence frequency and timing of these events. Our results suggest that enhanced co- and interseismic strength and stress variability along the megathrust, such as induced near areas of high or heterogeneous fault curvature, limits how frequently large ruptures occur and may explain curved faults' tendency to host more frequent, smaller earthquakes than flat faults.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2025

Dynamic feedbacks between river meandering and landsliding in northwestern Washington glacial terraces

Landsliding in river valleys poses unique risks for cascading hazards and can damage infrastructure and cause fatalities. In postglacial valleys, many landslides are posited to occur in relation to lateral river erosion, but the dynamics of fluvial-hillslope interactions are not well understood. Here, we investigate a section of the Nooksack River in western Washington State where the channel is flanked by landslide-prone glacial terraces similar to those that failed in the 2014 State Route 530 “Oso” landslide. We map 216 landslides through time across 17 aerial imagery data sets (1933–2022) and analyze them in relation to river meandering and curvature. We observe dynamic feedbacks between lateral river meandering and valley-adjacent landsliding. Terrace lateral retreat rates of up to 25 m/year owing to combined fluvial erosion and slope failure occur on pinned, outer meander bends immediately downstream from peaks in river curvature (>0.0075 1/m); these locations are predisposed to both shallow and deep-seated landslides. Deep-seated landslides extending 17%–32% of the active valley width into the floodplain can displace the river away from the floodplain margin and change the channel planform. River-displacing landslides relocate meanders up- or downstream, thereby conditioning the location of subsequent landslides. This conceptual model of coupled landslide-driven meander displacement and valley-adjacent landsliding is exemplified across western Washington river systems. The distance between up- and downstream valley-adjacent landsliding scales with valley width, meander wavelength, and terrace height. Our results can advance our understanding of the river-hillslope interface in landscape evolution and can be used to inform hazard management in river corridors.

Washington↗
USGS2023

A comprehensive fault system inversion approach: Methods and application to NSHM23

We present updated inversion‐based fault‐system solutions for the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23), standardizing earthquake rate model calculations on crustal faults across the western United States. We build upon the inversion methodology used in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) to solve for time‐independent rates of earthquakes in an interconnected fault system. The updated model explicitly maps out a wide range of fault recurrence and segmentation behavior (epistemic uncertainty), more completely exploring the solution space of viable models beyond those of UCERF3. We also improve the simulated annealing implementation, greatly increasing computational efficiency (and thus inversion convergence), and introduce an adaptive constraint weight calculation algorithm that helps to mediate between competing constraints. Hazard calculations show that ingredient changes (especially fault and deformation models) are the primary driver of hazard changes between NSHM23 and UCERF3. Updates to the inversion methodology are also consequential near faults in which the slip rate in UCERF3 was poorly fit or was satisfied primarily using large multifault ruptures that are now restricted by explicit b ‐value and segmentation constraints.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2026

Channel morphology and large wood control postfire debris-flow erosion and deposition

Runoff-generated debris flows are a known response to wildfire, and accurately predicting the volume of these debris flows is important for estimating the magnitude of downstream hazards. Prior data collection efforts have focused on debris-flow volume measurements at catchment outlets, but few studies have considered how erosion and deposition modulate the volume of sediment arriving at catchment outlets. This study takes advantage of a high-resolution dataset to document the factors that control the total debris-flow volume reaching the catchment outlet during a fatal postfire debris flow. Using pre- and post-event airborne lidar, satellite imagery and field mapping, we found that a postfire debris flow in the Black Hollow catchment in northern Colorado eroded 136,000 ± 30,000 m 3 and redeposited 27,000 ± 7,500 m 3 in the main channel. Most of the in-channel deposition (52% by volume) occurred where a confined channel reach transitioned to an unconfined channel reach downstream, allowing the flow to widen and deposit material. Wood jams played multiple roles in the debris-flow dynamics, both nucleating deposition (25% of the deposit volume was stored behind wood jams) and exacerbating erosion (50% of the total erosion occurred downstream from a wood dam break). The remaining deposition occurred due to spatial changes in channel slope as well as deposition observed at newly formed channel bars. Using these data in this study, we identified topographic and vegetation metrics that can be used (pre-event) to anticipate where deposition may occur in channels prior to a debris flow.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Assessing nonpoint-source uranium pollution in an irrigated stream-aquifer system

Uranium (U) in rocks and soils of arid and semi-arid environments can be mobilized by irrigation and fertilization, posing environmental and health risks. Elevated U, along with selenium (Se) and nitrate (NO 3 ) co-constituents, necessitates careful monitoring and management. We developed a distributed-parameter numerical model to assess U pollution in an irrigated stream-aquifer system, applying it to a 552 km 2 region in Colorado's Lower Arkansas River Valley (LARV) over 14 years. A MODFLOW model, describing groundwater and stream flow, was coupled with an RT3D-OTIS model to portray reactive U transport. Calibration using the PESTPP-iES iterative ensemble smoother (iES) software indicated good agreement with observed U concentrations. The model revealed substantial and variable U levels across the LARV, highlighting potential hotspots and possible contributing factors, such as geological composition of the bedrock and near-surface shale and aquifer sediments derived from them, irrigation practices, and riparian landscape. U levels exceed the chronic standard (85th percentile = 30 μg/L, set by the US Environmental Protection Agency), which is the permissible regulatory threshold, in groundwater across 44 % of the region and along the river by an average factor of 2.9. Simulated average U concentrations in the non-riparian aquifer and river are 124 μg/L and 60 μg/L, respectively, compared with 112 μg/L and 62 μg/L for measured values. The average 85th percentile U concentration is 222 μg/L in the aquifer and 82 μg/L in the river. Average simulated U mass loading to the river is 0.17 kg/day per km, compared to an estimated 0.23 kg/day per km. Findings provide a baseline for comparing future simulated outcomes of alternative best management practices (BMPs) for U pollution mitigation and offer a methodology applicable to other irrigated regions.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

Interplay between tectonics and submarine mass transport deposits in Cortes Basin: New high-resolution geophysics in the Outer California Borderland

The Outer California Borderland (OCB) is an active transform plate boundary offshore Southern California, where the relationship between faulting and submarine mass transport deposits (MTDs) remains poorly understood. Onshore paleoseismic data provide high-resolution earthquake records, whereas marine geophysical data capture longer-term histories. Offshore fault systems pose hazards to infrastructure and dense coastal populations, particularly when linked to submarine landslides. We present new high-resolution geophysical data set (cruise SR2303), including bathymetric and CHIRP sub-bottom data integrated with legacy seismic reflection data and chronostratigraphic constraints from ODP Site 1012 to examine Quaternary MTD recurrence and tectonic controls in the Cortes Basin, OCB. Bathymetry shows deformational features, including slide scarps and previously unmapped fault segments with evidence of Holocene activity. CHIRP profiles reveal 10 stacked MTDs in the East Cortes Basin and 8 in the West Cortes Basin, spanning ∼752 ka with an average recurrence of ∼83.6 ± 1 ka. Acoustic imaging shows 7 MTD intervals coinciding with fault offset increments and fault growth suggesting earthquake-triggered mass wasting. A strong association between MTD occurrences and sea-level extremes also supports glacio-eustatic contribution to slope failure. Stratigraphic correlations suggest quasi-synchronous MTDs across the eastern and western areas, likely triggered by larger eathquakes in the Quaternary. Although the identified MTDs occur relatively far from the Southern California coast, they still pose a potential tsunamigenic hazard requiring further assessment. Moreover, if linked to earthquakes along major strike-slip faults, for example, the Ferrelo fault, the MTDs may provide valuable proxies to constrain rupture scenarios and fault connectivity within the understudied OCB.

California↗
USGS2025

Rainfall thresholds for postfire debris-flow initiation vary with short-duration rainfall climatology

The size, frequency, and geographic scope of severe wildfires are expanding across the globe, including in the Western United States. Recently burned steeplands have an increased likelihood of debris flows, which pose hazards to downstream communities. The conditions for postfire debris-flow initiation are commonly expressed as rainfall intensity-duration thresholds, which can be estimated given sufficient observational history. However, the spread of wildfire across diverse climates poses a challenge for accurate threshold prediction in areas with limited observations. Studies of mass-movement processes in unburned areas indicate that thresholds vary with local climate, such that higher rainfall rates are required for initiation in climates characterized by frequent intense rainfall. Here, we use three independent methods to test whether initiation of postfire runoff-generated debris flows across the Western United States varies similarly with climate. Through the compilation of observed thresholds at various fires, analysis of the spatial density of observed debris flows, and quantification of feature importance at different spatial scales, we show that postfire debris-flow initiation thresholds vary systematically with short-duration rainfall-intensity climatology. The predictive power of climatological data sets that are readily available before a fire occurs offers a much-needed tool for hazard management in regions that are facing increased wildfire activity, have sparse observational history, and/or have limited resources for field-based hazard assessment. Furthermore, if the observed variation in thresholds reflects long-term adjustment of the landscape to local climate, rapid shifts in rainfall intensity related to climate change will likely induce spatially variable shifts in postfire debris-flow likelihood.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2024

Produced water geochemistry from hydraulically stimulated Niobrara Formation petroleum wells: Origin of salinity and temporal perspectives on treatment and reuse

Produced water (i.e., a mixture of returned injection fluids and geologic formation brines) represents the largest volumetric waste stream associated with petroleum production in the United States. As such, produced water has been the focus of intense study with emphasis on understanding the geologic origin of the fluids, environmental impacts of unintended or intentional release, disposal concerns, and their commodity (e.g., lithium) potential. However, produced water geochemistry from many active petroleum plays remain poorly constrained leading to knowledge gaps associated with the origin of brine salinity and parameters (e.g., radium levels) that can impact treatment, disposal, and possible reuse. Here we evaluate the major ion geochemistry, radium concentrations, and stable water isotope composition of ~120 produced water samples collected from 17 producing unconventional petroleum wells in Weld County, Colorado from the Late Cretaceous Niobrara Formation. This sample set encompasses eight produced water time series from four new wells across production days 0 to ~365 and from four established wells across production days ~1000 to ~1700. Additionally, produced water from nine other established Niobrara Formation wells were sampled at discrete time points ranging from day 458 to day 2256, as well as hydraulic fracturing input fluids. These results expand the available Niobrara Formation produced water geochemical data, previously limited to few wells sampled within the first year of production, allowing for the heterogeneity of major ions and radium to be evaluated. Furthermore, we explore the geochemical relationships between major ion ratios and stable water isotope composition to understand the origin of salinity in Niobrara Formation brines from the Denver-Julesburg Basin. These findings are discussed with perspective toward potential treatment and reuse of Niobrara produced water prior to disposal.

Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming↗
USGS2024

Intense alteration on early Mars revealed by high-aluminum rocks at Jezero Crater

The NASA Perseverance rover discovered light-toned float rocks scattered across the surface of Jezero crater that are particularly rich in alumina ( ~ 35 wt% Al 2 O 3 ) and depleted in other major elements (except silica). These unique float rocks have heterogeneous mineralogy ranging from kaolinite/halloysite-bearing in hydrated samples, to spinel-bearing in dehydrated samples also containing a dehydrated Al-rich phase. Here we describe SuperCam and Mastcam-Z observations of the float rocks, including the first in situ identification of kaolinite or halloysite on another planet, and dehydrated phases including spinel and apparent partially dehydroxylated kaolinite. The presence of spinel in these samples is likely detrital in origin, surviving kaolinitization, pointing to an ultramafic origin. However, the association of low hydration with increased Al 2 O 3 abundances suggests heating-induced dehydration which could have occurred during the lithification or impact excavation of these rocks. Given the orbital context of kaolinite-bearing megabreccia in the Jezero crater rim, we propose an origin for these rocks involving intense aqueous alteration of the parent material, followed by dehydration/lithification potentially through impact processes, and dispersion into Jezero crater through flood or impact-related processes.

Communications Earth & Environment↗
USGS2025

To heal or not to heal?: 2. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes in the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma aftershock sequence is consistent with laboratory healing rates

The timing and failure conditions of an earthquake are governed by the interplay between fault reloading and restrengthening. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes can give observational estimates of fault healing rates; however, it is difficult to link these observed healing rates to laboratory studies of frictional healing in part because of uncertainty in lithology. Here, we study the 2011 Prague earthquake sequence, which includes repeating earthquakes in the Arbuckle group and the granitic basement, and compare them to laboratory experiments on samples of the Arbuckle and Troy granite (representative of the basement rock) (Okamoto et al., 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030573 ). We find three spatially distinct groups of repeating earthquakes with different moment-recurrence behavior: (a) constant moment-recurrence time in the Arbuckle group, (b) scattered moment-recurrence time at the intersection of the foreshock-mainshock fault in the granitic basement, and (c) moment-predictable behavior outside of the foreshock-mainshock fault intersection also in the granitic basement. Our observation of stagnant healing for repeating sequences in the Arbuckle group is consistent with laboratory observations of low healing rates for moderately high pore fluid pressures in Arbuckle samples. For the moment-predictable group, the source radius that is required in order to match healing rates is consistent with source radius estimations when taking into account reasonable attenuation of the P- pulse width. Overall, we observe diverse healing behaviors in the seismic families that are consistent with laboratory healing rates, providing seismic evidence that contact-scale frictional mechanisms are relevant to large-scale earthquake dynamics.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2024

Potentially toxic elements in wild Agassiz’s desert tortoises: Tissue concentrations and association with disease

Background: Desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) populations have continued to decline due to infectious and other diseases, predation, and habitat alteration. The potential contribution of minerals and heavy metals to tortoise health and susceptibility to disease remains uncertain. Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the results of elemental analysis of trace minerals and macrominerals in scute keratin, kidney, and liver tissue from ill and dying desert tortoises salvaged for necropsy between 1993 and 2000. Methods: Salvaged tortoises were categorized by age (adult, juvenile), geographic location, and primary disease based on necropsy findings. A subset of tortoises that were injured or killed by vehicular trauma or predation but with no notable pathologic abnormalities were used as controls. A panel of 21 trace minerals and 6 macrominerals was analyzed in scute keratin, kidney, and liver tissue samples by inductively-coupled plasma spectrometry and atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Results: Necropsies were done on 46 tortoises, including 9 juveniles salvaged from 5 regions in the Colorado and Mojave deserts of California. Primary diseases were cutaneous dyskeratosis (n=9), infection/ inflammation (n=8), malnutrition (n=7), mycoplasmosis (n=5), and urolithiasis (n=3); 14 tortoises were classified as controls. Concentrations of elements differed significantly by tissue, age, desert region, and disease (P < 0.05). Tortoises with cutaneous dyskeratosis had significantly higher Se concentrations, primarily in keratin and liver, than tortoises with other diseases (P < 0.001). Juveniles were more likely than adults to have high Pb, Sn, and Zn levels (P < 0.05). All tortoises had detectable levels of more than one potentially toxic heavy metal, including As, Cd, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sn and V. Conclusions: Potentially toxic elements are frequently found in tissue from tortoises in desert regions of California, with significantly higher concentrations in diseased tortoises. Metal exposure from soils, mining, historic and ongoing military activities, and other human activities could increase susceptibility to disease in desert tortoises.

California↗
USGS2025

New paleomagnetic constraints on the eruption timing, stratigraphy, and post-emplacement deformation of the Picture Gorge Basalt within the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Picture Gorge Basalt (PGB) is part of the Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The PGB, which outcrops in eastern Oregon, is considered coincident in time with the voluminous Grande Ronde Basalt. New radiometric ages have expanded the age‐range of the PGB, suggesting it began erupting prior to the Steens Basalt to its south and continued until after cessation of the Grande Ronde Basalt eruptions, an interval of 1.5 Ma. However, the existing paleomagnetism of the PGB implies this eruption timeline is an overestimate. To reconcile the radiometric and paleomagnetic timescales for the PGB, we conducted a paleomagnetic study on sections of the PGB to construct a detailed, high‐quality magnetostratigraphy. Our data indicate the stratigraphically lowest lava flows in the PGB are of reversed polarity, revealing a new paleomagnetic transition with the PGB and a reversed (R)–normal (N)–reversed (R) sequence. This suggests one of two timeline possibilities for PGB volcanism: (a) eruptions began and during through CRBG polarity chrons R0–N0–R1, penecontemporaneous with Steens Basalt, or (b) eruptions began and persisted during CRBG polarity chrons R1–N1–R2. Our work supports a longer interval of PGB volcanism than was suggested by previous paleomagnetic data but is at odds with the suggestion that PGB eruptions lasted through the entire main CRBG. We favor a scenario wherein PGB eruptions begin with R0 and continue into the R1 paleomagnetic interval. The paleomagnetic results also record a ∼18° vertical‐axis rotation of east‐central Oregon after ∼16 Ma with respect to stable North America.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

Importance of fish in the diet of Adélie penguins across multiple life stages

Over recent decades, the Adélie penguin ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) population has grown across most of its range, the exception being the northern coast of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). In the Ross Sea, the very large Cape Crozier colony grew to reach ~9% of the global population. Demographic factors driving the Cape Crozier trend have yet to be identified. However, low chick fledging mass - a negative influence in the northern WAP where the diet is mostly less-energy-dense krill - is not showing an effect in the Cape Crozier colony. Previously, we hypothesized that Cape Crozier fledglings, and post-breeding adults, must be finding sufficient higher-quality prey once free of the prey-depleted colony foraging area, with subsequent higher survival. Here we explore penguin diet within and outside the colony foraging area using stable isotope analysis (SIA) of feathers: those grown by post-breeding adults outside the foraging area, prior to moult, compared to those of near-fledged chicks raised on meals obtained within the foraging area. Second, we explore whether a major difference occurs between breeding and post-breeding diet of adults from a small, nearby colony (Cape Royds) that exploits a smaller, little-depleted preyscape. Finally, we compare the results to SIA analyses published by others to explore whether the pre-moult diet of Ross Island adults, mostly foraging within the north-eastern Ross Sea, compares with that of adults nesting in the southern WAP (Bellingshausen Sea coast). At the latter, populations are not decreasing, with diet containing an appreciable contribution of fish. The results confirmed that fish contributed greatly to chick diets at both Ross Island colonies (δ 15 N 10.6–11.4). Once adults were released from central-place foraging, SIA levels (δ 15 N 9.7–12.9) were similar to those of the southern WAP. Foraging on energy-dense fish in coastal Antarctic waters could be one reason Adélie penguins are among the most abundant and therefore most ecologically successful penguin species.

Antarctic Science↗
USGS2025

Waning greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. Federal lease coal production by the mid-21st century

This study presents estimates of future years (2024–2051) United States Federal lease coal production and the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the combustion, transport, and mining of that fuel. Results from the coal production estimate indicate a decline in production from Federal leases; with known production of 240 million short tons (mtn) in 2023 and a projected decline to 34.0 mtn by 2051, which represents a reduction to 14.2% of the 2023 value. In parallel with this projection, total GHG emissions are estimated to decrease from 402.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO 2 eq.) in 2024 to 55.0 MMT CO 2 eq. in 2051, a decline to 13.7% of 2024 emissions estimates. The reductions in coal production and emissions are mainly the result of planned coal combustion power plant closures, with major projected closures in 2037 and 2048. However, GHG emissions estimates for future years can be uncertain as they rely heavily on coal production estimates from operators' public business plans and other publicly available resources. Forward looking plans of this type are subject to significant changes if economic and political factors deviate from current information. Results suggest that average GHG emissions over the time series breakout to 95% end point combustion, 3.7% transportation combustion emissions, and 1.3% fugitive emissions, although there is uncertainty associated with these figures. Uncertainty stemming from production projections, sector distributions, and emissions factors on the future emissions estimates increases with time, ranging from −28% to +48% within the 2024–2051 timeframe.

Alabama, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, Wy↗
USGS2026

High-resolution landscape-scale maps of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in Suisun Bay and the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California, during 2018—Results from high-resolution underway surveys

We examined the abundance and distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun, Grizzly, and Honker Bays in California by completing three spatial surveys that used continuous underway high frequency (1 hertz) measurements and sampling onboard a high-speed boat. Surveys were conducted in May, July, and October 2018. Water was sampled continuously during surveys to simultaneously collect information about the concentration and spatial distribution of all major nutrient forms together with information about the major classes of phytoplankton and associated standard field measurements of water quality, such as dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic matter, pH, salinity, specific conductance, turbidity, and water temperature. The results show a greater than 50-fold variation in nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations across space and time, providing evidence of the dynamic environmental processes that shape the ways nutrients interact with and affect Delta aquatic habitats.

Data Report↗
USGS2025

Groundwater flowpath characteristics drive variability in per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) loading across a stream-wetland system

Groundwater-dependent ecosystems in areas with industrial land use are at risk of exposure to a PFAS chemicals. We investigated one such system with several known PFAS source areas, where high and low permeability sediments (glacial) coupled with groundwater-lake and groundwater/surface-water interactions created complex ‘source to seep’ dynamics. Using heat-tracing and chemical methods, numerous preferential groundwater discharge zones were identified and sampled across the upper Quashnet River stream-wetland system in Mashpee, MA, USA, downgradient of Joint Base Cape Cod (JBCC). Surface-water and groundwater samples were analyzed for 40 PFAS compounds between March and October 2022. Samples were collected from groundwater seeps identified as preferential discharge points (PDPs), wells upgradient of the stream-wetland system, contributing flow-through kettle lakes, and along Quashnet River surface-waters. PFAS from sampled waters contained perfluorinated carboxylates (PFPea, PFHxA, PFNA), perfluorinated sulfonates (PFBS, PFPeS, PFHxS, PFOS), fluorotelomer sulfonates (6:2, 8:2 FtS), and perfluoroalkyl sulfonamides (PFOSA). Samples from PDPs and wells had measured PFAS concentrations ranging from non-detect to 4677 ng/L ng/L (mean = 418 ng/L, std. = 709 ng/L), and a range of deuterium excess values (3.2 to 15.9 per mil) indicative of varying degrees of groundwater-lake interaction prior to groundwater flowpath emergence at PDPs. Correlations ( p < 0.01) between deuterium excess, %PFAS precursors, and terminal PFAS compounds highlighted potential precursor transformations associated with lake-groundwater exchange along flowpaths sourcing PDPs. However, some seepages had higher total PFAS concentrations (>1000 ng/L) than upgradient kettle lakes despite showing lake (evaporative) isotopic signatures, indicating the potential for groundwater flowpath convergence at wetland discharge zones and the influence of lakebed PFAS precursor reactions. Results from these synoptic surveys address gaps in the existing PFAS literature by demonstrating the importance of subsurface fate and transport on PFAS compound concentrations and mass loading in preferential groundwater discharge zones.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2026

Structural evolution and slip rate variations through time of the Puente-Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles: Implications for seismic hazard and folding kinematics

Using seismic reflection profiles, historical well logging data, and luminescence and radiocarbon ages, we determine a Pleistocene-Holocene slip history for the central, Santa Fe Springs segment of the Puente Hills blind-thrust fault (PHT), a major seismogenic fault situated beneath the urbanized Los Angeles metropolitan region. We analyze the geometry of correlative stratigraphic units in the forelimb and backlimb of the overlying growth-fold, the Santa Fe Springs anticline, and determine the uplift of seven age-correlative markers. Uplift measurements are converted to thrust displacements on the underlying PHT using a structural method laid out by Don et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220048 ) that accounts for the geometry of the fault. These data indicate that deep thrust displacement on the PHT is partially consumed updip in the creation of a hanging-wall fault-bend fold, with forelimb growth strata recording <80% of the slip documented within the backlimb. Chronological data from growth strata yield age constraints for folding and faulting on the underlying PHT, providing a detailed incremental slip history derived from both the forelimb and backlimb folding for seven discrete growth horizons, spanning the past 1.4 million years. The resulting six incremental slip rates demonstrate that fault slip has varied through time from the middle Pleistocene to the Holocene. Moreover, these results reveal synchronous acceleration of both the central, Santa Fe Springs and western, Los Angeles segments of the fault system since late Pleistocene time (after 200 ka) and slip rates of greater than 2 mm/yr on the downdip, backlimb, fault-ramp below the anticline.

California↗
USGS2026

The use of fluorite geochemistry and machine learning to identify critical mineral systems

Fluorite (CaF 2 ) is a potential pathfinder to critical mineral and rare earth element (REE) deposits but its application has been limited to a narrow range of mineralization types. I show that fluorite is a robust recorder of mineralization fertility by applying statistical and machine-learning methods to a new global fluorite geochemical database. Distinct median rare earth and trace element patterns are observed among deposit types and genetic environments. Fluorite associated with carbonatites and REE deposits are relatively enriched in Sr and have minimal Eu anomalies. These characteristics define new bivariate discrimination diagrams that correctly identify 78% of carbonatite-related fluorite and 88% of fluorite from REE deposits. Random forest classifiers were developed for a wide range of mineralization types and genetic settings. Trained solely on rare earth element patterns, these models achieve accuracies of 77–79%. Higher classification accuracies (up to 88–96%) are obtained when including elements such as Sr, highlighting the significance of trace elements for optimal fluorite classification. The recognition of diagnostic fluorite compositional fingerprints, particularly in REE-fertile systems, underscores its potential as a pathfinder and indicator for critical mineral exploration in F-bearing environments.

Mineralium Deposita↗