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USGS2007

Incorporating availability for detection in estimates of bird abundance

Several bird-survey methods have been proposed that provide an estimated detection probability so that bird-count statistics can be used to estimate bird abundance. However, some of these estimators adjust counts of birds observed by the probability that a bird is detected and assume that all birds are available to be detected at the time of the survey. We marked male Henslow's Sparrows ( Ammodramus henslowii ) and Grasshopper Sparrows ( A. savannarum ) and monitored their behavior during May-July 2002 and 2003 to estimate the proportion of time they were available for detection. We found that the availability of Henslow's Sparrows declined in late June to <10% for 5- or 10-min point counts when a male had to sing and be visible to the observer; but during 20 May-19 June, males were available for detection 39.1% (SD = 27.3) of the time for 5-min point counts and 43.9% (SD = 28.9) of the time for 10-min point counts ( n = 54). We detected no temporal changes in availability for Grasshopper Sparrows, but estimated availability to be much lower for 5-min point counts (10.3%, SD = 12.2) than for 10-min point counts (19.2%, SD = 22.3) when males had to be visible and sing during the sampling period ( n = 80). For distance sampling, we estimated the availability of Henslow's Sparrows to be 44.2% (SD = 29.0) and the availability of Grasshopper Sparrows to be 20.6% (SD = 23.5). We show how our estimates of availability can be incorporated in the abundance and variance estimators for distance sampling and modify the abundance and variance estimators for the double-observer method. Methods that directly estimate availability from bird counts but also incorporate detection probabilities need further development and will be important for obtaining unbiased estimates of abundance for these species.

The Auk↗

USGS2004

Diets of insectivorous birds along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona

We examined diets of six insectivorous bird species ( n = 202 individuals) from two vegetation zones along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, 1994. All bird species consumed similar quantities of caterpillars and beetles, but use of other prey taxa varied. Non-native leafhoppers ( Opsius stactagolus ) specific to non-native tamarisk ( Tamarix chinensis ) substantially augmented Lucy's Warbler ( Vermivora luciae ) diets (49%), while ants comprised 82% of Yellow-breasted Chat ( Icteria virens ) diets. Yellow Warbler ( Dendroica petechia ) diets were composed of 45% aquatic midges. All bird species consumed the non-native leafhopper specific to tamarisk. Comparison of bird diets with availability of arthropod prey from aquatic and terrestrial origins showed terrestrial insects comprised 91% of all avian diets compared to 9% of prey from aquatic origin. Seasonal shifts in arthropod prey occurred in diets of three bird species, although no seasonal shifts were detected in arthropods sampled in vegetation indicating that at least three bird species were not selecting prey in proportion to its abundance. All bird species had higher prey overlap with arthropods collected in the native, mesquite-acacia vegetation zone which contained higher arthropod diversity and better prey items (i.e., Lepidoptera). Lucy's Warbler and Yellow Warbler consumed high proportions of prey items found in greatest abundance in the tamarisk-dominated vegetation zone that has been established since the construction of Glen Canyon Dam. These species appeared to exhibit ecological plasticity in response to an anthropogenic increase in prey resources.

Arizona↗

USGS2014

A multiscale assessment of tree avoidance by prairie birds

In North America, grassland bird abundances have declined, likely as a result of loss and degradation of prairie habitat. Given the expense and limited opportunity to procure new grasslands, managers are increasingly focusing on ways to improve existing habitat for grassland birds, using techniques such as tree removal. To examine the potential for tree removal to benefit grassland birds, we conducted 446 point counts on 35 grassland habitat patches in the highly fragmented landscape of west-central Minnesota during 2009–2011. We modeled density of four grassland bird species in relation to habitat composition at multiple scales, focusing on covariates that described grass, woody vegetation (trees and large shrubs), or combinations of grass and woody vegetation. The best-supported models for all four grassland bird species incorporated variables measured at multiple scales, including local features such as grass height, litter depth, and local tree abundance, as well as landscape-level measures of grass and tree cover. Savannah Sparrows ( Passerculus sandwichensis ), Sedge Wrens ( Cistothorus platensis ), and Bobolinks ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus ) responded consistently and negatively to woody vegetation, but response to litter depth, grass height, and grassland extent were mixed among species. Our results suggest that reducing shrub and tree cover is more likely to increase the density of grassland birds than are attempts to improve grass quality or quantity. In particular, tree removal is more likely to increase density of Savannah Sparrows and Sedge Wrens than any reasonable changes in grass quality or quantity. Yet tree removal may not result in increased abundance of grassland birds if habitat composition is not considered at multiple scales. Managers will need to either manage at large scales (80–300 ha) or focus their efforts on removing trees in landscapes that contain some grasslands but few nearby wooded areas.

Minnesota↗

USGS2017

The first 50 years of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The vision of Chandler (Chan) S. Robbins for a continental-scale omnibus survey of breeding birds led to the development of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Chan was uniquely suited to develop the BBS. His position as a government scientist had given him experience with designing and implementing continental-scale surveys, his research background made him an effective advocate of the need for a survey to monitor pesticide effects on birds, and his prominence in the birding community gave him connections to infrastructure—a network of qualified volunteer birders who could conduct roadside surveys with standardized point counts. Having started in the eastern United States and the Atlantic provinces of Canada in 1966, the BBS now provides population change information for ∼546 species in the continental United States and Canada, and recently initiated routes in Mexico promise to greatly expand the areas and species covered by the survey. Although survey protocols have remained unchanged for 50 years, the BBS remains relevant in a changing world. Several papers that follow in this Special Section of The Condor: Ornithological Advances review how the BBS has been applied to conservation assessments, especially in combination with other large-scale survey data. A critical feature of the BBS program is an active research program into field and analytical methods to enhance the quality of the count data and to control for factors that influence detectability. Papers in the Special Section also present advances in BBS analyses that improve the utility of this expanding and sometimes controversial survey. In this Perspective, we introduce the Special Section by reviewing the history of the BBS, describing current analyses, and providing summary trend results for all species, highlighting 3 groups of conservation concern: grassland-breeding birds, aridland-breeding birds, and aerial insectivorous birds.

The Condor↗

USGS2000

Bird mortality associated with wind turbines at the Buffalo Ridge wind resource area, Minnesota

Recent technological advances have made wind power a viable source of alternative energy production and the number of windplant facilities has increased in the United States. Construction was completed on a 73 turbine, 25 megawatt windplant on Buffalo Ridge near Lake Benton, Minnesota in Spring 1994. The number of birds killed at existing windplants in California caused concern about the potential impacts of the Buffalo Ridge facility on the avian community. From April 1994 through Dec. 1995 we searched the Buffalo Ridge windplant site for dead birds. Additionally, we evaluated search efficiency, predator scavenging rates and rate of carcass decomposition. During 20 mo of monitoring we found 12 dead birds. Collisions with wind turbines were suspected for 8 of the 12 birds. During observer efficiency trials searchers found 78.8% of carcasses. Scavengers removed 39.5% of carcasses during scavenging trials. All carcasses remained recognizable during 7 d decomposition trials. After correction for biases we estimated that approximately 36 ?? 12 birds (<1 dead bird per turbine) were killed at the Buffalo Ridge windplant in 1 y. Although windplants do not appear to be more detrimental to birds than other man-made structures, proper facility sitting is an important first consideration in order to avoid unnecessary fatalities.

Minnesota↗

USGS2001

Associations of grassland birds with landscape factors in southern Wisconsin

We investigated the association of grassland birds with field- and landscape-level habitat variables in south-central Wisconsin during 1985–1987. Landscape-level variables were measured and digitized at 200, 400 and 800 m from the perimeter of 38 200 m × 100 m strip transects. A mixture of field and landscape variables was associated with the density of savannah sparrow ( Passerculus sandwichensis ) and grasshopper sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ). Only landscape variables were associated with the density of bobolink ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus ), eastern meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ) and all birds that were grassland species of management concern. Field size was not an important predictor of bird density. Cover-type diversity of the surrounding area was commonly selected in the models for three species and all birds that were grassland species of management concern. Higher bird densities in the transects were associated with landscapes where the cover types were less diverse. Landscapes with low cover type diversity were dominated by grassland, pasture and hay. Field habitat, mean patch size of cover types and distance to woody vegetation were the next most common predictors of avian density. The density of some grassland birds increased as nonlinear woody features such as woodlots and shrub carrs decreased in patch size, decreased in total amount in the landscape and increased in distance from a transect. However, density of other species was positively associated with linear woody features such as the total amount and nearness of hedgerows. The composition of the surrounding landscape, at least out to 800 m, is important in grassland bird management.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

Wintering bird response to fall mowing of herbaceous buffers

Herbaceous buffers are strips of herbaceous vegetation planted between working agricultural land and streams or wetlands. Mowing is a common maintenance practice to control woody plants and noxious weeds in herbaceous buffers. Buffers enrolled in Maryland's Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP) cannot be mowed during the primary bird nesting season between 15 April and 15 August. Most mowing of buffers in Maryland occurs in late summer or fall, leaving the vegetation short until the following spring. We studied the response of wintering birds to fall mowing of buffers. We mowed one section to 10–15 cm in 13 buffers and kept another section unmowed. Ninety-two percent of birds detected in buffers were grassland or scrub-shrub species, and 98% of all birds detected were in unmowed buffers. Total bird abundance, species richness, and total avian conservation value were significantly greater in unmowed buffers, and Savannah Sparrows ( Passerculus sandwichensis ), Song Sparrows ( Melospiza melodia ), and White-throated Sparrows ( Zonotrichia albicollis ) were significantly more abundant in unmowed buffers. Wintering bird use of mowed buffers was less than in unmowed buffers. Leaving herbaceous buffers unmowed through winter will likely provide better habitat for wintering birds.

Maryland↗

USGS2014

Bird mortality during nocturnal migration over Lake Michigan: A case study

Millions of birds die each year during migration. Most of this mortality goes unobserved and conditions surrounding the actual events are often not thoroughly documented. We present a case study of substantial migrant casualties along the shores of southwestern Lake Michigan during May 1996 when we found 2,981 dead birds of 114 species, mostly migrant passerines. An unusual sequence of events allowed us to document the circumstances surrounding this migratory bird kill. Bird carcasses appeared on the southwestern shores of Lake Michigan in the days following storm systems that produced high rain and in one case, hail. Encounters between birds and precipitation over open water were recorded by weather radar, and were followed by winds that drifted dead birds toward highly populated shorelines where the kill was observed and documented. Climatologically, May 1996 was exceptional for producing weather conditions that both killed birds en masse and allowed the mortality to be documented. As a result, this is one of the more thoroughly documented instances of a weather-related mass mortality event during migration.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2010

Conserving migratory land birds in the New World: Do we know enough?

Migratory bird needs must be met during four phases of the year: breeding season, fall migration, wintering, and spring migration; thus, management may be needed during all four phases. The bulk of research and management has focused on the breeding season, although several issues remain unsettled, including the spatial extent of habitat influences on fitness and the importance of habitat on the breeding grounds used after breeding. Although detailed investigations have shed light on the ecology and population dynamics of a few avian species, knowledge is sketchy for most species. Replication of comprehensive studies is needed for multiple species across a range of areas. Information deficiencies are even greater during the wintering season, when birds require sites that provide security and food resources needed for survival and developing nutrient reserves for spring migration and, possibly, reproduction. Research is needed on many species simply to identify geographic distributions, wintering sites, habitat use, and basic ecology. Studies are complicated, however, by the mobility of birds and by sexual segregation during winter. Stable-isotope methodology has offered an opportunity to identify linkages between breeding and wintering sites, which facilitates understanding the complete annual cycle of birds. The twice-annual migrations are the poorest-understood events in a bird's life. Migration has always been a risky undertaking, with such anthropogenic features as tall buildings, towers, and wind generators adding to the risk, Species such as woodland specialists migrating through eastern North America have numerous options for pausing during migration to replenish nutrients, but some species depend on limited stopover locations. Research needs for migration include identifying pathways and timetables of migration, quality and distribution of habitats, threats posed by towers and other tall structures, and any bottlenecks for migration. Issues such as human population growth, acid deposition, climate change, and exotic diseases are global concerns with uncertain consequences to migratory birds and even lesscertain remedies. Despite enormous gaps in our understanding of these birds, research, much of it occurring in the past 30 years, has provided sufficient information to make intelligent conservation efforts but needs to expand to handle future challenges. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS1999

Breeding bird responses to three silvicultural treatments in the Oregon Coast Range

Silvicultural alternatives to clear-cutting have been suggested to promote development, retention, or creation of late-successional features such as large trees, multilayered canopies, snags, and logs. We assessed bird response to three silvicultural alternatives to clear-cutting that retained structural features found in old Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii ) forests and that imitated natural disturbance regimes more closely than did traditional clear-cutting: (1) small-patch group selection treatment representing a low-intensity disturbance; (2) two-story treatment, representing a moderate to high-intensity disturbance; and (3) modified clear-cut treatment, representing a high-intensity disturbance. We counted diurnal breeding birds 1 yr prior to and 2 yr after harvest to estimate effects of the silvicultural treatments on bird communities compared with uncut controls. The small-patch group selection treatment was most similar in species composition to control stands. The two-story treatment was more similar to the modified clear-cut treatment. Ten bird species remained abundant following the small-patch group selection treatment. They declined in abundance in modified clearcuts and two-story stands. These species included four neotropical migratory species and five species with restricted geographic ranges and habitat associations. Nine species increased in response to moderate and/or high-intensity disturbances. This group included a larger proportion of species that were habitat generalists. Silvicultural treatments imitating low-intensity disturbances were most effective in retaining bird communities associated with mature forest; high-intensity disturbances such as the two-story and modified clear-cut treatments greatly altered bird community composition. Bird responses to the silvicultural treatments that we studied indicate that a variety of stand types is needed to meet needs of all species.

Oregon↗

USGS2010

Effects of wildlife forestry on abundance of breeding birds in bottomland hardwood forests of Louisiana

Effects of silvicultural activities on birds are of increasing interest because of documented national declines in breeding bird populations for some species and the potential that these declines are in part due to changes in forest habitat. Silviculturally induced disturbances have been advocated as a means to achieve suitable forest conditions for priority wildlife species in bottomland hardwood forests. We evaluated how silvicultural activities on conservation lands in bottomland hardwood forests of Louisiana, USA, influenced species-specific densities of breeding birds. Our data were from independent studies, which used standardized point-count surveys for breeding birds in 124 bottomland hardwood forest stands on 12 management areas. We used Program DISTANCE 5.0, Release 2.0 ( Thomas et al. 2006 ) to estimate density for 43 species with >50 detections. For 36 of those species we compared density estimates among harvest regimes (individual selection, group selection, extensive harvest, and no harvest). We observed 10 species with similar densities in those harvest regimes compared with densities in stands not harvested. However, we observed 10 species that were negatively impacted by harvest with greater densities in stands not harvested, 9 species with greater densities in individual selection stands, 4 species with greater densities in group selection stands, and 4 species with greater densities in stands receiving an extensive harvest (e.g., >40% canopy removal). Differences in intensity of harvest influenced densities of breeding birds. Moreover, community-wide avian conservation values of stands subjected to individual and group selection, and stands not harvested, were similar to each other and greater than that of stands subjected to extensive harvest that removed >40% canopy cover. These results have implications for managers estimating breeding bird populations, in addition to predicting changes in bird communities as a result of prescribed and future forest management practices.

Louisiana↗

USGS1965

Bird mortality following DDT spray for Dutch elm disease

Avian populations in Hanover, N. H., a town that has sprayed its elms with DDT for many years in an attempt to control Dutch elm disease, were compared with those in Norwich, Vt., a town 1 mile (1.6 km) west of Hanover that has never sprayed. Hanover applied 109 lb DDT/acre (2.1 kg/hectare) in April 1963, then used Methoxychlor in April 1964. Population surveys were taken regularly during spring and early summer of these years, dead birds were collected in both towns, and 106 birds were analyzed for DDT, DDE, and DDD. Severe mortality of both resident and migrant birds occurred in Hanover during spring 1963, and the evidence implicates DDT as its cause. Robin loss was estimated at 70% of the resident population, or 350 to 400 individuals, but mortality among other species of widely varied feeding habits was also substantial. Feeding habits suggest that some birds acquired the toxicant by eating living insects carrying DDT, presenting the paradox of survival of the intended DDT victims, and death, instead, of insectivorous birds. Organ and whole bird analyses are presented and criteria for establishing cause of death are discussed. Most of the DDT had been converted to DDE and DDD, and residues were found in all organs analyzed. Robin mortality was reduced, but not eliminated following Methoxychlor application in 1964; these losses were believed caused by residual DDT in the soil. There was no evidence DDT poisoning among other species in 1964, though the dead birds collected were not analyzed.

Ecology↗

USGS2001

Nest survival of forest birds in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

In the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, flood control has led to a drastic reduction in the area of forest habitat and altered the patchwork of forest cover types. Silvicultural management of the remaining fragmented forests has changed to reflect the altered hydrology of the forests, current economic conditions of the area, and demand for forest products. Because forest type and silvicultural management impact forest birds, differences in avian productivity within these forests directly impact bird conservation. To assist in conservation planning, we evaluated daily nest survival, nest predation rates, and brood parasitism rates of forest birds in relation to different forest cover types and silvicultural management strategies within this floodplain. Within bottomland hardwood forests, nest success of blue-gray gnatcatcher ( Polioptila caerulea , 13%), eastern towhee ( Pipilo erythrophthalmus , 28%), indigo bunting ( Passerina cyanea , 18%), northern cardinal ( Cardinalis cardinalis , 22%), and yellow-billed cuckoo ( Coccyzus americanus , 18%) did not differ from that within intensively managed cottonwood plantations. However, average daily survival of 542 open-cup nests of 19 bird species in bottomland hardwoods (0.9516 ± 0.0028, ∼27% nest success) was greater than that of 543 nests of 18 species in cottonwood plantations (0.9298 ± 0.0035, ∼15% nest success). Differences in daily nest survival rates likely resulted from a combination of differences in the predator community -- particularly fire ants ( Solenopsis invicta ) -- and a marked difference in species composition of birds breeding within these 2 forest types. At least 39% of nests in bottomland hardwood forests and 65% of nests in cottonwood plantations were depredated. Rates of parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) were greater in managed cottonwoods (24%) than in bottomland hardwoods (9%). Nest success in planted cottonwood plantations for 18 species combined (∼14%), and for yellow-breasted chat ( Icteria virens , 7%), eastern towhee (14%), indigo bunting (14%), and northern cardinal (17%) did not differ from nest success in cottonwood plantations that were coppiced from root sprouts following pulpwood harvest. Within bottomland hardwood forests, uneven-aged group-selection timber harvest reduced the combined daily nest survival of all species from 0.958 to 0.938, which reduced nest success by about 14%. Specifically, timber harvest reduced nest success of species that nest in the forest midstory and canopy, such as Acadian flycatcher ( Empidonax virescens ), from 32% before harvest to 14% after harvest. Conversely, those species that nest primarily in the shrubby understory-such as northern cardinal-were not affected by timber harvest and maintained an overall nest success of about 33%. Thus, birds nesting in the understory of bottomland hardwood forests are not adversely impacted by selective timber harvest, but there is a short-term reduction in nest success for birds that nest in the canopy and midstory.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗

USGS2001

Grassland birds associated with agricultural riparian practices in southwestern Wisconsin

Rotational grazing has been proposed as a Best Management Practice (BMP) for minimizing runoff in Wisconsin agricultural riparian areas. The influence of this land management practice on grassland birds has not been evaluated in relation to more traditional agricultural land management systems in Midwestern riparian areas. This study compared the grassland bird community in riparian areas in Wisconsin that were rotationally grazed to 2 common land use practices along streams in Wisconsin: continuously grazed pastures and rowcrop fields with 10-m-wide ungrazed buffer strips located along the stream. We calculated total number of birds, the Berger-Parker Index of Dominance, and number of birds ha-1 for each site. Vegetation variables used were height-density, litter depth, and percent bare ground. Bird species richness, species dominance, and density did not differ among land use types. In contrast, grassland bird species of management concern [Savannah Sparrow ( Passerculus sandwichensis Gmelin), Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna L.), and Bobolink ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus L.)] were found on continuous and rotational pastures but very rarely or never occurred on buffer strips. Contrary to previous research, however, rotationally grazed pastures did not support more of these species than continuously grazed pastures. Bird density was related to vegetation structure, with higher densities found on sites with deeper litter. Within the pasture land use types, there were no consistent differences between species richness and density near the stream (<10 m) and away (>10 m).

Wisconsin↗

USGS1990

Immediate impact of the 'Exxon Valdez' oil spill on marine birds

On 24 March 1989, the oil tanker 'Exxon Valdez' spilled 260,000 barrels of crude oil in Prince William Sound, Alaska. Oil eventually drifted over $30,000\ {\rm km}^{2}$ of coastal and offshore waters occupied by approximately one million marine birds. More than 30,000 dead birds of 90 species were retrieved from polluted areas by 1 August 1989. Of those identified, murres (74%), other alcids (7.0%), and sea ducks (5.3%) suffered the highest mortality from oil, and most (88%) birds were killed outside of Prince William Sound. A colony of 129,000 murres at the Barren Islands was probably devastated. Another 7,000 birds were retrieved between 1 August and 13 October , but most of those birds appeared to have died from natural causes. This later die-off was composed largely of shearwaters and other procellariids (51%), gulls (22%), and puffins (14%). Based on aerial and ship-based surveys for populations at risk, and extrapolating from the number of dead birds recovered, we estimate that the total kill from oil pollution was from 100,000 to 300,000 birds.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Bird populations on the Island of Tinian: persistence despite wholesale loss of native forests

Bird habitat on the island of Tinian, Mariana Islands, has been substantially altered, and only around 5% of the island has native forest today. The modern bird fauna is likely to be a subset of the original avifauna where only species tolerant to native forest loss and human disturbance have survived. Avian surveys were conducted on the island in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to provide current densities and abundances of the remaining species, and assess population trends using data collected from previous surveys. During the three surveys (1982, 1996, and 2008), 18 species were detected, and abundances and trends were assessed for 11 species. Five of the nine native species and one alien bird have increased since 1982. Three native birds—Mariana Fruit-Dove ( Ptilinopus roseicapilla ), Micronesian Honeyeater ( Myzomela rubratra ), and Tinian Monarch ( Monarcha takatsukasae )—have decreased since 1982. Trends for the remaining two birds (one native and one alien) were considered relatively stable. Only five birds, including the Tinian Monarch, showed significant differences among regions of Tinian by year. Increased development on Tinian may result in increases in habitat clearing and expansion of human-dominated habitats, and declines in some bird populations would likely continue or be exacerbated with these actions. Expanded development activities on Tinian would also mean increased cargo movement between Guam and Tinian, elevating the probability of transporting the Brown Tree Snake ( Boiga irregularis ) to Tinian, which would lead to precipitous decreases and extinctions.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2007

Strategic Plan for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: 2006-2010

Executive Summary The mission of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is to provide scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales to inform biologically sound conservation and management actions. Determining population trends, relative abundance, and distributions of North American avifauna is critical for identifying conservation priorities, determining appropriate conservation actions, and evaluating those actions. The BBS program, jointly coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada’s Canadian Wildlife Service, provides the U.S. and Canadian Federal governments, state and provincial agencies, other conservation practitioners, and the general public with science-based avian population trend estimates and other information for regional and national species’ population assessments. Despite the demonstrated value of the BBS for furthering avian conservation across North America, its importance is often underappreciated, and it is underfunded compared with many other government-supported programs that report on status of the environment. Today, BBS resources, adjusted for inflation, are below the amount allocated in the 1970s and are still only sufficient to support two biologists. Yet the number of routes, participants, data, and data requests has quadrupled. Data and information management and delivery requirements and security concerns, non-existent in 1966, impose further demands on BBS resources. In addition, the Mexican expansion of the BBS offers new hope for a truly continental approach to avian conservation, but also brings additional challenges. Meeting the goals of this plan will take cooperation among myriad stakeholders; yet, even with collaboration, most objectives of this plan will be unattainable if BBS program support is not increased. The BBS developed this strategic plan to help set priorities and identify resources required for the program to continue to meet the evolving needs of the conservation community for information on bird population change. By setting clear goals, strategies, and measures of success, this plan provides a cohesive framework and vision for maintenance and development of the BBS. The plan identifies two major goals for the BBS, with a number of strategies and objectives to achieve these goals. Over the next 5 years, progress made in addressing each long-term goal and its associated 5-year strategies and objectives will gage the plan’s success. Specific actions, projected outcomes, and measures of success related to accomplishing these are outlined in Table 1, with a timeline in Table 2. The two main goals for the program, with a summary of the strategies to achieve them, are: Goal 1: Collect scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales. The North American Breeding Bird Survey will continue to support North American natural resource conservation through the collection of scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of continental bird populations. While doing this, the BBS will work to improve the science behind the program to better meet its mission and the changing needs of the avian conservation community. In partnership with collaborators, the BBS will address detection probability bias and habitat bias, improve analytical methods, and more fully assess and account for observer quality. Moreover, the BBS will improve the quality and breadth of avian population data through strategic increases in route density and the establishment of a Mexican BBS program. Goal 2: Ensure BBS data and analytical results are widely available and easily accessible for use by the avian conservation and management communities. At the heart of the BBS lies a four-million-record database containing more than 40 years of data on more than 600 bird species. These data are of no value if not well maintained, appropriately analyzed, and widely and easily accessible. The USGS has greatly improved data management and accessibility in recent years. Trend estimates were first made available via the Internet in the mid-1990s, followed closely by the raw data with baseline metadata and standard operating procedures. Nevertheless, numerous enhancements to data management and the usability of BBS results will greatly improve the ability of the BBS to serve avian conservation goals. The BBS needs to ensure that BBS data and results presented on the web site use the best data-management practices and statistical methods, with adequate documentation for users to understand them and any differences between different trend estimates. Moreover, the BBS needs to increase communication with BBS partners and stakeholders to ensure that it continues to meet the avian population status and trends needs of the conservation community and to encourage the development of new products. Working with collaborators, the BBS will develop tools for integrating environmental parameters like habitat change into the analyses, and for integrating BBS data with other avian survey results. In addition, the BBS will continue to improve data and database management through the incorporation of additional data and data fields, such as georeferenced stop locations and more complete metadata for the raw data and results, thus enhancing the uses that can be made of the data.

Circular↗

USGS2020

Research priorities for migratory birds under climate change—A qualitative value of information assessment

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center is to provide actionable, management-relevant research on climate change effects on ecosystems and wildlife to U.S. Department of the Interior bureaus. Providing this kind of useful scientific information requires understanding how natural-resource managers make decisions and identifying research priorities that support those decision-making processes. Migratory bird management and conservation of migratory bird habitat are central components of the U.S. Department of the Interior’s mission. In particular, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has an intensive, complex decision-making process for identifying high-priority parcels of land that will contribute to migratory bird conservation through permanent acquisition or easement. Climate change introduces several uncertainties into this decision-making process, and additional climate change research should help to support more informed decision making regarding habitat acquisition. Not all climate change related uncertainties, however, will have a meaningful effect on acquisition decisions; therefore, understanding which uncertainties have the most potential to alter decision making is crucial. This document summarizes a multiyear effort to clarify the major sources of climate change uncertainty that affect migratory bird management and to articulate related research priorities. We worked with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service staff to assess the primary ways in which climate change is likely to affect migratory birds and their habitats; to clarify uncertainties surrounding these effects; and to assess how uncertainties may affect habitat acquisition decisions. Using a modified structured decision-making approach, we assessed a set of hypotheses about how climate change will affect migratory birds and their habitats. Then, we used a qualitative value of information assessment to rank the most important topics for future research. The ranking process was built on an assessment of three primary characteristics: the magnitude of uncertainty, the topic’s relevance to habitat acquisition decision making, and the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty. Based on the results of this process, high-priority topics for future research include the following: The effects of rising temperatures on spatial distributions of migratory birds during the breeding and nonbreeding seasons; Climate-driven changes to avian community composition through homogenization and loss of specialists; The effects of decreased precipitation on abundance in the breeding season; and The effects of rising temperatures on abundance in the nonbreeding season. In addition to describing high-priority research needs, this document provides a summary of the methodology used to identify, assess, and rank uncertainties. This method was developed for a climate change related topic where a full quantitative value of information approach may not be feasible. The results and methodology described here may be useful for U.S. Geological Survey and other science-funding agencies interested in improving the applicability of their research to natural-resource management decision making.

Circular↗