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Assessment of coal geology, resources, and reserves in the Montana Powder River Basin

The purpose of this report is to summarize geology, coal resources, and coal reserves in the Montana Powder River Basin assessment area in southeastern Montana. This report represents the fourth assessment area within the Powder River Basin to be evaluated in the continuing U.S. Geological Survey regional coal assessment program. There are four active coal mines in the Montana Powder River Basin assessment area: the Spring Creek and Decker Mines, both near Decker; the Rosebud Mine, near Colstrip; and the Absaloka Mine, west of Colstrip. During 2011, coal production from these four mines totaled approximately 36 million short tons. A fifth mine, the Big Sky, had significant production from 1969-2003; however, it is no longer in production and has since been reclaimed. Total coal production from all five mines in the Montana Powder River Basin assessment area from 1968 to 2011 was approximately 1.4 billion short tons. The Rosebud/Knobloch coal bed near Colstrip and the Anderson, Dietz 2, and Dietz 3 coal beds near Decker contain the largest deposits of surface minable, low-sulfur, subbituminous coal currently being mined in the assessment area. A total of 26 coal beds were identified during this assessment, 18 of which were modeled and evaluated to determine in-place coal resources. The total original coal resource in the Montana Powder River Basin assessment area for the 18 coal beds assessed was calculated to be 215 billion short tons. Available coal resources, which are part of the original coal resource remaining after subtracting restrictions and areas of burned coal, are about 162 billion short tons. Restrictions included railroads, Federal interstate highways, urban areas, alluvial valley floors, state parks, national forests, and mined-out areas. It was determined that 10 of the 18 coal beds had sufficient areal extent and thickness to be evaluated for recoverable surface resources ([Roland (Baker), Smith, Anderson, Dietz 2, Dietz 3, Canyon, Werner/Cook, Pawnee, Rosebud/Knobloch, and Flowers-Goodale]). These 10 coal beds total about 151 billion short tons of the 162 billion short tons of available resource; however, after applying a strip ratio of 10:1 or less, only 39 billion short tons remains of the 151 billion short tons. After mining and processing losses are subtracted from the 39 billion short tons, 35 billion short tons of coal were considered as a recoverable resource. Coal reserves (economically recoverable coal) are the portion of the recoverable coal resource that can be mined, processed, and marketed at a profit at the time of the economic evaluation. The surface coal reserve estimate for the 10 coal beds evaluated for the Montana Powder River assessment area is 13 billion short tons. It was also determined that about 42 billion short tons of underground coal resource exists in the Montana Powder River Basin assessment area; about 34 billion short tons (80 percent) are within 500-1,000 feet of the land surface and another 8 billion short tons are 1,000-2,000 feet beneath the land surface.

Montana;Wyoming↗

Comments on classification of uranium resources

National resource assessments are intended to give some insight into future possibilities for the recovery of a desired resource. The resource numbers themselves only useful when related to economically controlled factors, such as industry capability as reflected in rated of production, rates of discovery, and technology development. To that end, it is useful to divide the resource base into component parts to which appropriate econometrics can be applied. A system of resource reporting adhering to these principles has been agreed to by the two major resource agencies in Government, the U>S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines (USGS Bulletin 1450-A). Conceptually, then, a plan for resource reporting has been devised, and all resource reporting by these two agencies follows the agreed-upon pattern. Though conceptual agreement has been reached, each commodity has its own peculiar data problems; hence an operational definition to fit the conceptual pattern must be evolved for each mineral. Coal is the only commodity to date for which an operational agreement has been reached (USGS Bulletin 1450-B), but the basic essentials of an operational classification within the guideline of Bulletin 1450-A have been reported for oil and gas in USGS circular 725. The basic classification system is now well established and received general endorsement by Resources for the Future in a study of mineral resource classification systems prepared for the the Electric Power Research Institute (Schanz, 1976), and with respect to coal by the International Energy Agency.

Open-File Report↗

Water resources scientific information center

The Water Resources Scientific Information Center (WRSIC) acquires, abstracts and indexes the major water resources related literature of the world, and makes information available to the water resources community and the public. A component of the Water Resources Division of the US Geological Survey, the Center maintains a searchable computerized bibliographic data base, and publishers a monthly journal of abstracts. Through its services, the Center is able to provide reliable scientific and technical information about the most recent water resources developments, as well as long-term trends and changes. WRSIC was established in 1966 by the Secretary of the Interior to further the objectives of the Water Resources Research Act of 1964--legislation that encouraged research in water resources and the prevention of needless duplication of research efforts. It was determined the WRSIC should be the national center for information on water resources, covering research reports, scientific journals, and other water resources literature of the world. WRSIC would evaluate all water resources literature, catalog selected articles, and make the information available in publications or by computer access. In this way WRSIC would increase the availability and awareness of water related scientific and technical information. (Lantz-PTT)

Open-File Report↗

Geology and assessment of coal resources for the Cherokee coal bed in the Fort Union Formation, south-central Wyoming

The Cherokee coal bed is a locally thick and laterally continuous coal bed in the Overland Member of the Paleocene Fort Union Formation in south-central Wyoming. It represents a significant resource that is easily accessible and may be extractable through both surface and underground mining methods. A database of more than 600 data points, comprising coalbed methane wells, coal exploration drill holes, and measured sections, was compiled from a previously released geologic database and reinterpreted to provide a more detailed geologic model for the Cherokee coal bed. The thickest part of the Cherokee coal bed lies along the crest of the Wamsutter arch, an east-west trending anticlinal feature that separates the Great Divide subbasin to north from the Washakie subbasin to the south. The Cherokee coal bed consists of several laterally persistent benches separated by partings that range in thickness from one inch to greater than 100 feet. A series of detailed geologic cross sections through the study area show both the structural geology and the distribution and areal extent of the individual coal benches of the Cherokee coal bed. Data generated from the geologic model were used in stochastic geostatistical analyses to estimate the remaining or in-place coal resources. Certain parameters, as described later in the text, were applied to calculate available coal resources for surface and underground mining. This study is part of an ongoing process by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to transition from a distance-based approach to a probabilistic approach for determining uncertainty in coal resource assessment. This probabilistic approach uses quantitative statistical methods to determine the potential range of uncertainty in coal resource estimates, whereas the distance-based approach does not provide any mathematical method to determine the range of uncertainty. Using stochastic geostatistical methods, utilizing 100 realizations or gridding iterations of the data, in-place resources were calculated, with a 90 percent probability, to be 15.261 ± 0.464 billion short tons (bst). Available coal resources tonnages were calculated using separate sets of criteria for surface and underground mining methods, based on probable mining parameters. Tonnage values were calculated based on estimated coal densities determined from available coal quality data. Available coal resources that meet the parameters for surface mining methods were calculated, with a 90 percent probability, to be 0.813 ± 0.038 bst. Available coal resources that meet the parameters for underground mining methods were calculated, with a 90 percent probability, to be 2.393 ± 0.055 bst. The calculations were based on estimates of the resources that meet the parameters for the optimum mining of the thickest coal benches of the Cherokee coal bed. This is depicted in a series of cross sections through the study area that show projected underground mining horizons in the Cherokee coal bed, based on the thickest combinations of individual coal benches.

Wyoming↗

Regional characterization of coal resources in the Gulf Coast Coal Region—In support of coal as a potential source for critical minerals and rare earth elements

There is increasing interest in extracting critical minerals (CM), including rare earth elements (REE), from coals in the United States to address the overreliance on imported REE. The Gulf Coast and the Fort Union regions are the two major lignite-bearing regions within the United States. Recent REE and CM studies of the lignite in these regions have indicated that the coals may be a viable source material for REE and CM extraction. To evaluate in-place coal as a potential source of REE and CM, the coal resources need to be quantified. This study presents the results of a regional analysis of Gulf Coast Coal Region lignite and bituminous coal resources that might be available as potential sources of REE and CM. The resource analysis used kriging methods to develop isopleth maps of cumulative coal thickness throughout the region using data from drill holes and measured mine and outcrop sections for a total of 31,181 data points. The estimated total remaining coal resource in the Gulf Coast Coal Region is about 83 billion metric tons in the upper 90 meters (approximately 300 feet) of the subsurface. The current estimate of remaining coal resources includes approximately 1.88 billion metric tons of coal that have been extracted in the region since 1983. Texas accounted for 39 percent (32 billion metric tons) of the remaining total resource, followed by Mississippi (24 percent, 20 billion metric tons ), Louisiana (14 percent, 12 billion metric tons), Tennessee (10 percent, 8.5 billion metric tons), and Arkansas (6 percent, 5.1 billion metric tons). Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, and Missouri each accounted for less than 5 percent of the total resource; Georgia had the smallest resource estimated at 7 million metric tons. Here we report the first known statewide lignite resource estimates for Georgia, Kentucky (820 million metric tons), and Missouri (1,800 million metric tons). A comparison of the results of this study with those of previous Gulf Coast Coal Region and Fort Union Coal Region resource studies is difficult because each study used different data sources, assessment methodologies, overburden depths, and qualifying coal thicknesses.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Lou↗

Classification systems for natural resource management

Resource managers employ various types of resource classification systems in their management activities such as inventory, mapping, and data analysis. Classification is the ordering or arranging of objects into groups or sets on the basis of their relationships, and as such, provide the resource managers with a structure for organizing their needed information. In addition of conforming to certain logical principles, resource classifications should be flexible, widely applicable to a variety of environmental conditions, and useable with minimal training. The process of classification may be approached from the bottom up (aggregation) or the top down (subdivision) or a combination of both, depending on the purpose of the classification. Most resource classification systems in use today focus on a single resource and are used for a single, limited purpose. However, resource managers now must employ the concept of multiple use in their management activities. What they need is an integrated, ecologically based approach to resource classification which would fulfill multiple-use mandates. In an effort to achieve resource-data compatibility and data sharing among Federal agencies, and interagency agreement has been signed by five Federal agencies to coordinate and cooperate in the area of resource classification and inventory.

Pecora VII Symposium↗

Quantifying the undiscovered geothermal resources of the United States

In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released summary results of an assessment of the electric power production potential from the moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resources of the United States (Williams et al., 2008a; USGS Fact Sheet 2008-3082; http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3082). In the assessment, the estimated mean power production potential from undiscovered geothermal resources is 30,033 Megawatts-electric (MWe), more than three times the estimated mean potential from identified geothermal systems: 9057 MWe. The presence of significant undiscovered geothermal resources has major implications for future exploration and development activities by both the government and private industry. Previous reports summarize the results of techniques applied by the USGS and others to map the spatial distribution of undiscovered resources. This paper describes the approach applied in developing estimates of the magnitude of the undiscovered geothermal resource, as well as the manner in which that resource is likely to be distributed among geothermal systems of varying volume and temperature. A number of key issues constrain the overall estimate. One is the degree to which characteristics of the undiscovered resources correspond to those observed among identified geothermal systems. Another is the evaluation of exploration history, including both the spatial distribution of geothermal exploration activities relative to the postulated spatial distribution of undiscovered resources and the probability of successful discoveries from the application of standard geothermal exploration techniques. Also significant are the physical, chemical, and geological constraints on the formation and longevity of geothermal systems. Important observations from this study include the following. (1) Some of the largest identified geothermal systems, such as The Geysers vapor-dominated system in northern California and the diverse geothermal manifestations found in Yellowstone National Park, are unique in North America and highly unlikely to have counterparts with equivalent characteristics among the systems comprising the undiscovered resources. (2) Historical geothermal exploration has been limited in both the effectiveness of techniques employed and spatial coverage, since most exploration has targeted areas associated with surface thermal manifestations in the most easily accessible lands. (3) As noted by other investigators, in general, the hottest and largest geothermal systems are those with heat sources arising from recent magmatic activity. Consequently, a larger fraction of the undiscovered resource is associated with those areas favorable to the formation of this type of geothermal system, including some relatively remote areas, such as the Aleutian volcanic arc in Alaska.

Conference Paper↗

New high resolution airborne geophysical surveys in Nevada And California for geothermal and mineral resource studies

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to acquire high-resolution airborne magnetic and radiometric data to support geologic and geophysical mapping and modeling that will assist geothermal and critical mineral studies. Coordinated with these efforts are programs supporting geologic mapping and airborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging) surveys that yield detailed surface topographic models of the terrain over the same regions spanned by the geophysical surveys. The collaboration leverages resources from the USGS and DOE to acquire large regional datasets that will provide fundamental data necessary to map surface and subsurface geology and structure to benefit mineral and resource program objectives of both agencies. Such regionally uniform datasets are important for geothermal research to assist in identifying geologically favorable settings and as invaluable inputs in predictive models targeting undiscovered resources that use knowledge-driven (e.g., play fairway analysis) or data-driven approaches (e.g., machine-learning methods) to reduce risk associated with resource exploration. These data will also serve a wide range of other related activities from hazard (earthquake, volcano, landslide, environmental) and resource (water, mineral, energy) studies, to mapping and land management. Surveys were conducted in two areas that were selected because they host substantial geothermal and mineral potential in California and Nevada. The data will aid several ongoing USGS and DOE projects aimed at characterizing geothermal and mineral systems, understanding the factors controlling their occurrence, and improving future national resource assessments. The first of these surveys (referred to as GeoDAWN) was collected over northern and western Nevada and eastern California and spans areas of major resource potential associated with the Walker Lane and western Great Basin. This includes Clayton Valley, which hosts substantial lithium brine and clay resources, and the Humboldt Mafic Complex, which constitutes a potentially important resource of critical minerals (including cobalt, rare earth elements, platinum group elements, iron, chromium, nickel, and copper). The second survey area (referred to as GeoFlight) is focused over the Salton Trough in southern California that contains some of the largest and hottest known hydrothermal systems in the world, as well as a substantial lithium brine resource that could potentially meet the nation’s lithium demand for electric vehicles. Data from both surveys will be made publicly available through USGS publications and online data repositories. Future efforts under this collaboration are presently being evaluated and may involve acquisition of other data sets such as airborne gravity, electromagnetic or hyperspectral data to address research targets.

Conference Paper↗

Evaluating the potential of co-located non-petroleum energy resources in the Gulf Coast using play fairwayaAnalysis

Geological resources critical to the energy transition, such as sedimentary geothermal, carbon storage potential, and lithium in brines, commonly struggle for economic feasibility as stand-alone developments but can have greater viability when the potential for more than one of these resources exist within the same reservoir or stacked in different stratigraphic intervals. There may also be instances where development of one resource inhibits development of others and decisions need to be made on how to best prioritize the use of those resources in the subsurface. Subsurface data sets were analyzed and integrated to evaluate the distribution of non-petroleum energy and related resources in the onshore and nearshore U.S. Gulf Coast. Temperature, pressure, brine composition (lithium content), and reservoir quality data for thirty-four depositional units have been compiled and visualized to high-grade areas where multiple resource opportunities likely coexist. For sedimentary geothermal, possible resource areas are defined as low potential (<90°C), moderate potential (90–150°C), and high potential (>150°C). For CO 2 storage, high potential areas exhibit supercritical CO 2 conditions less than 80% of the fracture gradient. Areas with pore pressure between 80% and 100% of the fracture gradient are considered to exhibit moderate potential and areas where the fracture gradient is equal to or greater than 100% are assigned low potential. Lithium resources in brines were defined by lithium concentrations as low potential (<100ppm), moderate potential (100-200ppm), or high potential (>200ppm). Reservoir quality affects the viability of all three of these resources and is evaluated using depositional environment maps of each unit. The resulting play fairway maps can be used for regional scale screening evaluations of these resources and to identify areas of interest where more detailed, prospect-scale studies can be undertaken.

Gulf Coast↗

Unconventional energy resources: 2007-2008 review

This paper summarizes five 2007–2008 resource commodity committee reports prepared by the Energy Minerals Division (EMD) of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Current United States and global research and development activities related to gas hydrates, gas shales, geothermal resources, oil sands, and uranium resources are included in this review. These commodity reports were written to advise EMD leadership and membership of the current status of research and development of unconventional energy resources. Unconventional energy resources are defined as those resources other than conventional oil and natural gas that typically occur in sandstone and carbonate rocks. Gas hydrate resources are potentially enormous; however, production technologies are still under development. Gas shale, geothermal, oil sand, and uranium resources are now increasing targets of exploration and development, and are rapidly becoming important energy resources that will continue to be developed in the future.

Natural Resources Research↗

Climate change scenario planning for resource stewardship at Wind Cave National Park

This report explains scenario planning as a climate change adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to Wind Cave National Park as the second part of a pilot project to dovetail climate change scenario planning with National Park Service (NPS) Resource Stewardship Strategy development. In the orientation phase, Park and regional NPS staff, other subject-matter experts, natural and cultural resource planners, and the climate change core team who led the scenario planning project identified priority resource management topics and associated climate sensitivities. Next, the climate change core team used this information to create a set of four divergent climate futures—summaries of relevant climate data from individual climate projections—to encompass the range of ways climate could change in coming decades in the park. Participants in the scenario planning workshop then developed climate futures into robust climate-resource scenarios that considered expert-elicited resource impacts and identified potential management responses. Finally, the scenario-based resource responses identified by park staff and subject matter experts were used to integrate climate-informed adaptations into resource stewardship goals and activities for the park's Resource Stewardship Strategy. This process of engaging resource managers in climate change scenario planning ensures that their management and planning decisions are informed by assessments of critical future climate uncertainties.

South Dakota↗

Using multilevel models to quantify heterogeneity in resource selection

Models of resource selection are being used increasingly to predict or model the effects of management actions rather than simply quantifying habitat selection. Multilevel, or hierarchical, models are an increasingly popular method to analyze animal resource selection because they impose a relatively weak stochastic constraint to model heterogeneity in habitat use and also account for unequal sample sizes among individuals. However, few studies have used multilevel models to model coefficients as a function of predictors that may influence habitat use at different scales or quantify differences in resource selection among groups. We used an example with white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) to illustrate how to model resource use as a function of distance to road that varies among deer by road density at the home range scale. We found that deer avoidance of roads decreased as road density increased. Also, we used multilevel models with sika deer ( Cervus nippon ) and white-tailed deer to examine whether resource selection differed between species. We failed to detect differences in resource use between these two species and showed how information-theoretic and graphical measures can be used to assess how resource use may have differed. Multilevel models can improve our understanding of how resource selection varies among individuals and provides an objective, quantifiable approach to assess differences or changes in resource selection.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Harvesting and replenishment policies for renewable natural resources

The current paper links the optimal intertemporal use of renewable natural resources to the harvesting activities of various economic agents. Previous contributions cite market forces as a causative factor inducing the extirpation of renewable natural resources. The analysis given here discusses investment in the stock of renewable resources and cites important examples of this activity. By introducing joint harvesting and replenishment strategies into a model of renewable resource use, the analysis adds descriptive reality and relevance to positive and normative discussions of renewable natural resource use. A high price for the yield or a high discount rate tend to diminish the size of the optimum stationary stock of the resource with a non-replenishment harvesting strategy. Optimal non-replenishment harvesting strategies for renewable natural resources will exhaustion or extirpation of the resource if the price of the yield or the discount rate are sufficiently large. However, the availability of a replenishment technology and the use of replenishment activities tends to buffer the resource against exhaustion or extirpation.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Global dynamics of a mutualism–competition model with one resource and multiple consumers

Recent simulation modeling has shown that species can coevolve toward clusters of coexisting consumers exploiting the same limiting resource or resources, with nearly identical ratios of coefficients related to growth and mortality. This paper provides a mathematical basis for such as situation; a full analysis of the global dynamics of a new model for such a class of n -dimensional consumer–resource system, in which a set of consumers with identical growth to mortality ratios compete for the same resource and in which each consumer is mutualistic with the resource. First, we study the system of one resource and two consumers. By theoretical analysis, we demonstrate the expected result that competitive exclusion of one of the consumers can occur when the growth to mortality ratios differ. However, when these ratios are identical, the outcomes are complex. Either equilibrium coexistence or mutual extinction can occur, depending on initial conditions. When there is coexistence, interaction outcomes between the consumers can transition between effective mutualism, parasitism, competition, amensalism and neutralism. We generalize to the global dynamics of a system of one resource and multiple consumers. Changes in one factor, either a parameter or initial density, can determine whether all of the consumers either coexist or go to extinction together. New results are presented showing that multiple competing consumers can coexist on a single resource when they have coevolved toward identical growth to mortality ratios. This coexistence can occur because of feedbacks created by all of the consumers providing a mutualistic service to the resource. This is biologically relevant to the persistence of pollination–mutualisms.

Journal of Mathematical Biology↗

Guiding principles of USGS methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources

During the last 30 years, the methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources used by the Geological Survey has undergone considerable change. This evolution has been based on five major principles. First, the U.S. Geological Survey has responsibility for a wide range of U.S. and world assessments and requires a robust methodology suitable for immaturely explored as well as maturely explored areas. Second, the assessments should be based on as comprehensive a set of geological and exploration history data as possible. Third, the perils of methods that solely use statistical methods without geological analysis are recognized. Fourth, the methodology and course of the assessment should be documented as transparently as possible, within the limits imposed by the inevitable use of subjective judgement. Fifth, the multiple uses of the assessments require a continuing effort to provide the documentation in such ways as to increase utility to the many types of users. Undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources are those recoverable volumes in undiscovered, discrete, conventional structural or stratigraphic traps. The USGS 2000 methodology for these resources is based on a framework of assessing numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations and the associated risks. The input is standardized on a form termed the Seventh Approximation Data Form for Conventional Assessment Units. Volumes of resource are then calculated using a Monte Carlo program named Emc2, but an alternative analytic (non-Monte Carlo) program named ASSESS also can be used. The resource assessment methodology continues to change. Accumulation-size distributions are being examined to determine how sensitive the results are to size-distribution assumptions. The resource assessment output is changing to provide better applicability for economic analysis. The separate methodology for assessing continuous (unconventional) resources also has been evolving. Further studies of the relationship between geologic models of conventional and continuous resources will likely impact the respective resource assessment methodologies. ?? 2005 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Conference Paper↗

Methods for regional assessment of geothermal resources

A consistent, agreed-upon terminology is prerequisite for geothermal resource assessment. Accordingly, we propose a logical, sequential subdivision of the "geothermal resource base", accepting its definition as all the thermal energy in the earth's crust under a given area, measured from mean annual temperature. That part of the resource base which is shallow enough to be tapped by production drilling is termed the "accessible resource base", and it in turn is divided into "useful" and "residual" components. The useful component (i.e. the thermal energy that could reasonably be extracted at costs competitive with other forms of energy at some specified future time) is termed the "geothermal resource". This in turn is divided into "economic" and "subeconomic" components, based on conditions existing at the time of assessment. In the format of a McKelvey diagram, this logic defines the vertical axis (degree of economic feasibility). The horizontal axis (degree of geologic assurance) contains "identified" and "undiscovered" components. "Reserve" is then designated as the identified economic resource. All categories should be expressed in units of thermal energy, with resource and reserve figures calculated at wellhead, prior to the inevitable large losses inherent in any practical thermal use or in conversion to electricity. Methods for assessing geothermal resources can be grouped into 4 classes: (a) surface thermal flux, (b) volume, (c) planar fracture and (d) magmatic heat budget. The volume method appears to be most useful because (1) it is applicable to virtually any geologic environment, (2) the required parameters can in Sprinciple be measured or estimated, (3) the inevitable errors are in part compensated and (4) the major uncertainties (recoverability and resupply) are amenable to resolution in the foreseeable future. The major weakness in all the methods rests in the estimation of how much of the accessible resource base can be extracted at some time in the future. In a manner similar to mineral and fuel assessment, this recoverability is expressed as a "recovery factor". For an ideally permeable hot-water system, the recovery factor may be as much as 50% and seems to be independent of temperature. It must decrease as effective porosity (??e) decreases, but the relation between the two is little more than a guess. On the other hand, for favorable systems like Larderello that produce steam by a mechanism of intergranular vaporization, the recovery factor is probably around 15-20%, decreasing to zero at an effective porosity of zero. According to the anlysis of Bodvarsson (1974), it increases with decreasing reservoir temperature, and as pointed out by Nathenson (1975a) is limited at low temperatures by the need to have sufficient reservoir pressure for extraction and use. The extent to which a geothermal reservoir can be resupplied with heat during "industrial" times of 10-100 yr can be evaluated using simple analytical models. The results, combined with gravity and levelling data of Hunt (1977) for Wairakei and Isherwood (1977) for The Geysers, confirm earlier conclusions by Ramey (1970) and Nathenson (1975a) that resupply to reservoirs producing only steam can be neglected, and the conclusion of Nathenson (1975a) that it may be significant for hot-water systems of high natural discharge. Major subjects that demand continuing investigation include: 1. 1. Determination of recovery factors as functions of temperature and effective porosity, particularly for hot-water systems. 2. 2. Evaluation of fluid recharge and heat resupply by repetitive gravity, levelling and underground temperature surveys in producing geothermal fields. 3. 3. Analysis of the extent to which a recovery factor can be enhanced by stimulation and by use of confined circulation loops. ?? 1979.

Geothermics↗

Tungsten skarn potential of the Yukon-Tanana Upland, eastern Alaska, USA—A mineral resource assessment

Tungsten (W) is used in a variety of industrial and technological applications and has been identified as a critical mineral for the United States, India, the European Union, and other countries. These countries rely on W imports mostly from China, which leaves them vulnerable to supply disruption. Consequently, the U.S. government has a current initiative to understand domestic resource potential. The eastern Alaska portion of the Yukon-Tanana Upland (YTU), is prospective for W skarn deposits, the major source of global W supply. The regional geology consists of juxtaposed Paleozoic lithotectonic packages that were reaccreted to North America in the Mesozoic . Multiple subsequent episodes of arc-related magmatism intruded the lithotectonic packages, accompanied by W skarn formation mostly associated with 100–90 Ma intrusions; major W skarn deposits in Canada are part of the same metallogenic event (e.g., Mactung, Cantung). In this paper, we present an assessment for undiscovered W skarn resources for parts of the lesser-explored western (Alaskan) portion of the YTU. We used GIS proximity analysis to map the intersection of pluton and carbonate-bearing rocks to define three permissive tracts for W skarn deposits. The permissive tracts were qualitatively assessed by mineral potential mapping using region-wide sediment geochemistry and mineral concentrate datasets. This analysis showed that much of the western YTU has high potential for undiscovered W skarn deposits, whereas the eastern and southern YTU had only isolated areas of medium to high potential. Historical production and the quality of the geochemistry data of the western YTU tract (ca. 9200 km 2 ) permitted a quantitative assessment of undiscovered W resources. Probabilistic estimates by a panel of 20 experts predicted a 70% chance of one to three undiscovered W skarn deposits in the western YTU tract. The rationale for favorability employed by the expert panel included favorable lithology, previous production, clustering of previously mined deposits, W placers in the area, lack of recent exploration, pan concentrates containing W minerals, and W geochemical anomalies. Estimates were combined with a global grade and tonnage model for W skarns in a Monte Carlo simulation and provided a median estimate of undiscovered resources of 94 kt WO 3 . If the undiscovered W skarn deposits are located close to infrastructure (e.g., near Fairbanks, or close to roads and/or power grid), application of an economic filter indicates that the median total economically recoverable WO 3 is 63 kt with a net present value (NPV) of $330 million USD (2008 dollars). Whereas if deposits are far from infrastructure, median recoverable WO 3 is only 30 kt and the NPV is $44 million. Our models for contained WO 3 resources and NPV estimates for the western YTU tract are considerably lower than the known resources in skarns in adjacent areas in Canada. Estimates for the western YTU are also lower than preliminary estimates for undiscovered W skarn deposits in areas of the western conterminous United States. We speculate that lower permeability and continuity of favorable carbonate rock horizons in the relatively higher-grade metamorphic country rocks in the Alaska portion of the YTU may explain some of the differences in prospectivity. More detailed geologic mapping, modern geochemistry, and geophysical surveys are needed to refine the resource potential of the whole YTU. Regardless, quantitative mineral resource assessment provides a useful tool for making first-order regional estimates of undiscovered resources, identifying target areas for new data acquisition, and guiding research on the fundamental controls of district-scale metallogenic endowments.

Alaska↗

Tungsten skarn mineral resource assessment of the Great Basin region of western Nevada and eastern California

A new quantitative mineral resource assessment for tungsten, a critical mineral commodity with highly concentrated production and a moderate risk of global supply disruption, was conducted for the Great Basin region of western Nevada and eastern California. This assessment was part of a larger effort focusing on three regions in the United States and represents the first study of domestic tungsten resources and mineral potential in over twenty years. By integrating geology, bedrock and stream sediment geochemistry, geophysics, and remote sensing data with recently developed software tools and analyses, estimates of undiscovered tungsten skarn deposits in permissive tracts are combined with grade and tonnage distributions of known deposits to generate probabilistic estimates of undiscovered resources. Identified resources in the Great Basin region total 168 thousand metric tons (kt) of tungsten trioxide (WO 3 ), including 116 kt of past production and 52 kt remaining in place. Consistent with the historic significance of the Great Basin region as a past producer containing a large portion of U.S. identified resources, undiscovered resources are likely to occur adjacent to known deposits and prospects and at unexplored depths. Undiscovered deposits are estimated to contain median resources of 940 kt of WO 3 with a 90% probability of at least 420 kt and a 10% probability of at least 1.7 million metric tons (Mt), of which 240 kt to 1.1 Mt may be economic to extract. Based on a 20-year average price, median recoverable undiscovered resources are estimated at 570 kt WO 3 equivalent with a net present value of $3 billion U.S. dollars. The methods, data, results, and economic significance of the assessment contribute to a scientific understanding of a critical mineral resource with direct implications for policy and land management decisions.

California, Nevada↗