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USGS2020

Identification of management thresholds of urban development in support of aquatic biodiversity conservation

Urbanization degrades stream ecosystems and causes loss of bodiversity. Using benthic macroinvertebrates as a surragate for overall aquatic diversity, we conducted a series of analytical approaches to derive management thresholds of urban development designed to link ecological responses to the primary management goal of protecting aquatic diversity in streams within the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (USA). We were particularly interested in identifying urban thresholds that represent the early phases of biological impact to support cost-effect management and mitigation interventions. We used taxa-specific modeling approaches within a spatially-explicit framework to develop sensitive thresholds that anticipate and demark the onset of taxa loss and provide a foundation for investigating alternative mechanisms driving biological change. We identified an early-warning threshold of 1.5% urban development in the contributing watershed where 15% of the 107 taxa evaluated exhibited significant declines in abundance but prior to any evidence of extirpation, and an extirpation threshold of 6% urban development where nearly 3% of taxa are likely to be lost locally. These thresholds of urban development are substantially lower than response thresholds typically reported based upon traditional modeling approaches that rely on spatially-implicit summaries of land cover and univariate metrics or composite indices. An analysis of ecological and functional trait composition of taxa determined to be sensitive suggests that reduced storage of benthic organic matter caused by flashier hydrographs may be the primary mechanism driving biological changes observed at relatively low levels of urbanization. Although the extent to which stream communities respond to stressor gradients in a non-linear fashion continues to be debated, we show that threshold approaches can be applied in support of aquatic resource management irrespective of whether or not stress-response functions are non-linear.

New Jersey, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2015

Empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning a regional aquatic long-term monitoring program using causal modelling

Conceptual models are an integral facet of long-term monitoring programs. Proposed linkages between drivers, stressors, and ecological indicators are identified within the conceptual model of most mandated programs. We empirically evaluate a conceptual model developed for a regional aquatic and riparian monitoring program using causal models (i.e., Bayesian path analysis). We assess whether data gathered for regional status and trend estimation can also provide insights on why a stream may deviate from reference conditions. We target the hypothesized causal pathways for how anthropogenic drivers of road density, percent grazing, and percent forest within a catchment affect instream biological condition. We found instream temperature and fine sediments in arid sites and only fine sediments in mesic sites accounted for a significant portion of the maximum possible variation explainable in biological condition among managed sites. However, the biological significance of the direct effects of anthropogenic drivers on instream temperature and fine sediments were minimal or not detected. Consequently, there was weak to no biological support for causal pathways related to anthropogenic drivers’ impact on biological condition. With weak biological and statistical effect sizes, ignoring environmental contextual variables and covariates that explain natural heterogeneity would have resulted in no evidence of human impacts on biological integrity in some instances. For programs targeting the effects of anthropogenic activities, it is imperative to identify both land use practices and mechanisms that have led to degraded conditions (i.e., moving beyond simple status and trend estimation). Our empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning the long-term monitoring program provided an opportunity for learning and, consequently, we discuss survey design elements that require modification to achieve question driven monitoring, a necessary step in the practice of adaptive monitoring. We suspect our situation is not unique and many programs may suffer from the same inferential disconnect. Commonly, the survey design is optimized for robust estimates of regional status and trend detection and not necessarily to provide statistical inferences on the causal mechanisms outlined in the conceptual model, even though these relationships are typically used to justify and promote the long-term monitoring of a chosen ecological indicator. Our application demonstrates a process for empirical evaluation of conceptual models and exemplifies the need for such interim assessments in order for programs to evolve and persist.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oreg↗

USGS2005

The no-project alternative analysis: An early product of the Tahoe Decision Support System

We report on the development of a No-project alternative analysis (NPAA) or “business as usual” scenario with respect to a 20-year projection of 21 indicators of environmental and socioeconomic conditions in the Lake Tahoe Basin for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA). Our effort was inspired by earlier work that investigated the tradeoffs between an environmental and an economic objective. The NPAA study has implications for a longer term goal of building a Tahoe Decision Support System (TDSS) to assist the TRPA and other Basin agencies in assessing the outcomes of management strategies. The NPAA assumes no major deviations from current management practices or from recent environmental or societal trends and planned Environmental Improvement Program (EIP) projects. Quantitative “scenario generation” tools were constructed to simulate site-specific land uses, various population categories, and associated vehicle miles traveled. Projections of each indicator’s attainment status were made by building visual conceptual models of the relevant natural and social processes, extrapolating trends, and using available models, research, and expert opinion. We present results of the NPAA, projected indicator status, key factors affecting the indicators, indicator functionality, and knowledge gaps. One important result is that current management practices may slow the loss or degradation of environmental qualities but not halt or reverse it. Our analysis also predicts an increase in recreation and commuting into and within the basin, primarily in private vehicles. Private vehicles, which are a critical mechanism by which the Basin population affects the surrounding environment, are a key determinant of air-quality indicators, a source of particulate matter affecting Secchi depth, a source of noise, and a factor in recreational and scenic quality, largely owing to congestion. Key uncertainties in the NPAA include climate change, EIP project effectiveness, and external population, economic activity, and air pollution.

Lake Tahoe Basin↗

USGS2022

Can we avert an Amazon tipping point? The economic and environmental costs

The Amazon biome is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer be possible. This degradation is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts and trade-offs of scenarios representing movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM + ESM). Our approach provides the first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of a tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. For the five Amazon focal countries, namely, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Bolivia and Ecuador, we find that a tipping point would create economic losses of US$256.6 billion in cumulative gross domestic product by 2050. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in intensifying agriculture in cleared lands, climate-adapted agriculture and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth and a return on investment of US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can support the design of regional development strategies for the Amazon biome, build the business case for action and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable policy implementation.

Amazon↗

USGS2019

Preface—Evaluating the response of critical zone processes to human impacts with sediment source fingerprinting

1) Background: Critical Zone Processes in the Anthropocene The Earth’s Critical Zone encompasses a suite of interconnected processes in the near-surface lithosphere, pedosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere (Brantley et al., 2007; Lin, 2010) (Fig. 1). Processes and interactions both within and between these various Critical Zone components supports life-sustaining ecosystem services and resources that establish the foundation for humanity (NRC, 2001). This includes the formation production of fertile soils, flourishing vegetation, productive rivers, lakes and oceans, and our life-sustaining atmosphere (Gaillardet, 2014; Guo and Lin, 2016). Rapid population growth, land use intensification, and global environmental change are disturbing many of these fundamental Critical Zone processes. More than half of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is now impacted by anthropogenic activities (e.g., clearing, grazing, plowing, mining, and logging) (Hooke et al., 2012; Richter and Mobley, 2009). These changes are so widespread and pervasive that the great acceleration of socioeconomic development that occurred around 1950 (Fig. 2) has been recommended to delineate the dawn of the Anthropocene (Waters et al., 2016). Although the utility of adopting and delineating the Anthropocene as the current epoch is subject to debate (Crutzen, 2002; Ruddiman et al., 2015; Smith and Zeder, 2013), the concept effectively highlights both the nature and the extent of our global impact on Earth’s Critical Zone. Soil forming processes and ecosystem services provided by the pedosphere are central to the Critical Zone (Banwart et al., 2011; Lin, 2010). Many of these processes have been disturbed by the agricultural intensification that coincided with the great acceleration resulting in unsustainable land use practices now outpacing soil formation processes (Brantley et al., 2007). As agricultural landscapes now cover an area equivalent to what was scoured during the last glacial maximum (Amundson et al., 2007), the broad-scale intensification of anthropogenic activities has resulted in significant on- and off-site impacts. On-site, soil loss has resulted in decreases in soil fertility and agricultural yields (Ladha et al., 2009) threatening the ability to feed the world’s growing population (Brantley et al., 2007). Off-site, the excess delivery of particulate matter downstream is degrading riverine, lacustrine, and estuarine ecosystems (Bilotta and Brazier, 2008; Clark, 1985; Owens et al., 2005). The challenge, as noted by Brantley et al., (2007), is that despite our society having over 10,000 years of experience working with soils, our conceptual and quantitative models remain inadequate at predicting Critical Zone dynamics under current conditions. Notwithstanding growing pressure for improved environmental management, we still have a limited capacity to predict changes in the Critical Zone in response to anthropogenic activities owing to the multiple spatial and temporal scales at which these complex processes and feedbacks are manifest. As river basin systems are impacted by many of these processes, a deep understanding of soil-sediment continuum dynamics may provide a valuable framework for evaluating the disturbance response of Critical Zone processes. Understanding these processes may also provide land and resource managers with the information necessary to manage both the on-site and off-site effects of accelerated soil erosion.

Journal of Soils and Sediments↗

USGS2009

Groundwater-Quality Assessment, Pike County, Pennsylvania, 2007

Pike County, a 545 square-mile area in northeastern Pennsylvania, has experienced the largest relative population growth of any county in the state from 1990 to 2000 and its population is projected to grow substantially through 2025. This growing population may result in added dependence and stresses on water resources, including the potential to reduce the quantity and degrade the quality of groundwater and associated stream base flow with changing land use. Groundwater is the main source of drinking water in the county and is derived primarily from fractured-rock aquifers (shales, siltstones, and sandstones) and some unconsolidated glacial deposits that are recharged locally from precipitation. The principal land uses in the county as of 2005 were public, residential, agricultural, hunt club/private recreational, roads, and commercial. The public lands cover a third of the county and include national park, state park, and other state lands, much of which are forested. Individual on-site wells and wastewater disposal are common in many residential areas. In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pike County Conservation District, began a study to provide current information on groundwater quality throughout the county that will be helpful for water-resource planning. The countywide reconnaissance assessment of groundwater quality documents current conditions with existing land uses and may serve as a baseline of groundwater quality for future comparison. Twenty wells were sampled in 2007 throughout Pike County to represent groundwater quality in the principal land uses (commercial, high-density and moderate-density residential with on-site wastewater disposal, residential in a sewered area, pre-development, and undeveloped) and geologic units (five fractured-rock aquifers and one glacial unconsolidated aquifer). Analyses selected for the groundwater samples were intended to identify naturally occurring constituents from the aquifer or constituents introduced by human activities that pose a health risk or otherwise were of concern in groundwater in the county. The analyses included major ions, nutrients, selected trace metals, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), selected organic wastewater compounds, gross alpha-particle and gross beta-particle activity, uranium, and radon-222. Analyses of the 20 samples were primarily for dissolved constituents, but six samples were analyzed for both dissolved and total metals. Results of the 2007 sampling indicated few water-quality problems, although concentrations of some constituents indicated influence of human activities on groundwater. No constituent analyzed exceeded any primary drinking-water standard or maximum contaminant level (MCL) established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Radon-222 levels were greater than, or equal to, the proposed MCL of 300 picocuries per liter (pCi/L) in water from 15 (75 percent) of the 20 wells. Radon-222 levels did not exceed the alternative MCL of 4,000 pCi/L in any groundwater sample. Radon-222 is naturally occurring, and the greatest concentrations (up to 2,650 pCi/L) were in water samples from wells in members of the Catskill Formation, a fractured-rock aquifer. The dissolved arsenic concentration of 3.9 micrograms per liter (ug/L) in one sample was greater than the health-advisory (HA) level of 2 ug/L but less than the MCL of 10 ug/L. Recommended or secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCLs) were exceeded for pH, dissolved iron, and dissolved manganese. In six samples analyzed for dissolved and total concentrations of selected metals, total concentrations commonly were much greater than dissolved concentrations of iron, and to a lesser degree, for arsenic, lead, copper, and manganese. Concentrations of iron above the SMCL of 300 ug/L may be more widespread in the county for particulate iron than for dissolved iron. The total arsenic concentration in one of the six samples was greater than the HA level of

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Mangrove forest distributions and dynamics in Madagascar (1975-2005)

Mangrove forests of Madagascar are declining, albeit at a much slower rate than the global average. The forests are declining due to conversion to other land uses and forest degradation. However, accurate and reliable information on their present distribution and their rates, causes, and consequences of change have not been available. Earlier studies used remotely sensed data to map and, in some cases, to monitor mangrove forests at a local scale. Nonetheless, a comprehensive national assessment and synthesis was lacking. We interpreted time-series satellite data of 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2005 using a hybrid supervised and unsupervised classification approach. Landsat data were geometrically corrected to an accuracy of ?? one-half pixel, an accuracy necessary for change analysis. We used a postclassification change detection approach. Our results showed that Madagascar lost 7% of mangrove forests from 1975 to 2005, to a present extent of ???2,797 km2. Deforestation rates and causes varied both spatially and temporally. The forests increased by 5.6% (212 km2) from 1975 to 1990, decreased by 14.3% (455 km 2) from 1990 to 2000, and decreased by 2.6% (73 km2) from 2000 to 2005. Similarly, major changes occurred in Bombekota Bay, Mahajamba Bay, the coast of Ambanja, the Tsiribihina River, and Cap St Vincent. The main factors responsible for mangrove deforestation include conversion to agriculture (35%), logging (16%), conversion to aquaculture (3%), and urban development (1%). ?? 2008 by MDPI.

Sensors↗

USGS2020

Biological soil crusts in ecological restoration: Emerging research and perspectives

Drylands encompass over 40% of terrestrial ecosystems and face significant anthropogenic degradation causing a loss of ecosystem integrity, services, and deterioration of social‐ecological systems. To combat this degradation, some dryland restoration efforts have focused on the use of biological soil crusts (biocrusts): complex communities of cyanobacteria, algae, lichens, bryophytes, and other organisms living in association with the top millimeters of soil. Biocrusts are common in many ecosystems and especially drylands. They perform a suite of ecosystem functions: stabilizing soil surfaces to prevent erosion, contributing carbon through photosynthesis, fixing nitrogen, and mediating the hydrological cycle in drylands. Biocrusts have emerged as a potential tool in restoration; developing methods to implement effective biocrust restoration has the potential to return many ecosystem functions and services. Although culture‐based approaches have allowed researchers to learn about the biology, physiology, and cultivation of biocrusts, transferring this knowledge to field implementation has been more challenging. A large amount of research has amassed to improve our understanding of biocrust restoration, leaving us at an opportune time to learn from one another and to join approaches for maximum efficacy. The articles in this special issue improve the state of our current knowledge in biocrust restoration, highlighting efforts to effectively restore biocrusts through a variety of different ecosystems, across scales and utilizing a variety of lab and field methods. This collective work provides a useful resource for the scientific community as well as land managers.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2013

A regional classification of the effectiveness of depressional wetlands at mitigating nitrogen transport to surface waters in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain

Nitrogen from nonpoint sources contributes to eutrophication, hypoxia, and related ecological degradation in Atlantic Coastal Plain streams and adjacent coastal estuaries such as Chesapeake Bay and Pamlico Sound. Although denitrification in depressional (non-riparian) wetlands common to the Coastal Plain can be a significant landscape sink for nitrogen, the effectiveness of individual wetlands at removing nitrogen varies substantially due to varying hydrogeologic, geochemical, and other landscape conditions, which are often poorly or inconsistently mapped over large areas. A geographic model describing the spatial variability in the likely effectiveness of depressional wetlands in watershed uplands at mitigating nitrogen transport from nonpoint sources to surface waters was constructed for the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP), from North Carolina through New Jersey. Geographic and statistical techniques were used to develop the model. Available medium-resolution (1:100,000-scale) stream hydrography was used to define 33,799 individual watershed catchments in the study area. Sixteen landscape metrics relevant to the occurrence of depressional wetlands and their effectiveness as nitrogen sinks were defined for each catchment, based primarily on available topographic and soils data. Cluster analysis was used to aggregate the 33,799 catchments into eight wetland landscape regions (WLRs) based on the value of three principal components computed for the 16 original landscape metrics. Significant differences in topography, soil, and land cover among the eight WLRs demonstrate the effectiveness of the clustering technique. Results were used to interpret the relative likelihood of depressional wetlands in each WLR and their likely effectiveness at mitigating nitrogen transport from upland source areas to surface waters. The potential effectiveness of depressional wetlands at mitigating nitrogen transport varies substantially over different parts of the NACP. Depressional wetlands are common in three WLRs covering 32 percent of the area, and have a relatively high potential to mitigate nitrogen transport from nonpoint sources. Conversely, 37 percent of the study area includes rolling hills with relatively high slope and relief, and little likelihood of depressional wetlands. The remainder of the Coastal Plain includes relatively flat watersheds with moderate to low relative likelihood of nitrogen mitigation. The delineation of WLRs in this model should be useful for targeting wetland conservation or restoration efforts, and for estimating the effects of depressional wetlands on the regional nitrogen budget, but should be considered in light of limitations and assumptions inherent in the model.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3]. Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals [Box 6.1, 6.4]. Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as saltmarshes and mangroves, are especially threatened where they are sediment starved or constrained on their landward margin [6.4.1]. Degradation of coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has serious implications for the well-being of societies dependent on the coastal ecosystems for goods and services [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. ncreased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries and other resources could impact hundreds of millions of people, and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures (very high confidence). Utilisation of the coast increased dramatically during the 20th century and this trend is virtually certain to continue through the 21st century. Under the SRES scenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions about migration [6.3.1]. Increasing numbers of people and assets at risk at the coast are subject to additional stresses due to land-use and hydrological changes in catchments, including dams that reduce sediment supply to the coast [6.3.2]. Populated deltas (especially Asian megadeltas), low-lying coastal urban areas and atolls are key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability, occurring where the stresses on natural systems coincide with low human adaptive capacity and high exposure [6.4.3]. Regionally, South, South- East and East Asia, Africa and small islands are most vulnerable [6.4.2]. Climate change therefore reinforces the desirability of managing coasts in an integrated manner [6.6.1.3]. Adaptation for the coasts of developing countries will be more challenging than for coasts of developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity (high confidence). While physical exposure can significantly influence vulnerability for both human populations and natural systems, a lack of adaptive capacity is often the most important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Adaptive capacity is largely dependent upon development status. Developing nations may have the political or societal will to protect or relocate people who live in low-lying coastal zones, but without the necessary financial and other resources/capacities, their vulnerability is much greater than that of a developed nation in an identical coastal setting. Vulnerability will also vary between developing countries, while developed countries are not insulated from the adverse consequences of extreme events [6.4.3, 6.5.2]. Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction (high confidence). Adaptation costs for climate change are much lower than damage costs without adaptation for most developed coasts, even considering only property losses and human deaths [6.6.2, 6.6.3]. As post-event impacts on coastal businesses, people, housing, public and private social institutions, natural resources, and the environment generally go unrecognised in disaster cost accounting, the full benefits of adaptation are even larger [6.5.2, 6.6.2]. Without adaptation, the high-end sea-level rise scenarios, combined with other climate changes (e.g., increased storm intensity), are as likely as not to render some islands and lowlying areas unviable by 2100, so effective adaptation is urgently required [6.6.3]. The unavoidability of sea-level rise, even in the longer-term, frequently conflicts with present-day human development patterns and trends (high confidence). Sea-level rise has substantial inertia and will continue beyond 2100 for many centuries. Irreversible breakdown of the West Antarctica and/or Greenland ice sheets, if triggered by rising temperatures, would make this long-term rise significantly larger, ultimately questioning the viability of many coastal settlements across the globe. The issue is reinforced by the increasing human use of the coastal zone. Settlement patterns also have substantial inertia, and this issue presents a challenge for long-term coastal spatial planning. Stabilisation of climate could reduce the risks of ice sheet breakdown, and reduce but Chapter 6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 317 not stop sea-level rise due to thermal expansion [Box 6.6]. Hence, it is now more apparent than it was in the TAR that the most appropriate response to sea-level rise for coastal areas is a combination of adaptation to deal with the inevitable rise, and mitigation to limit the long-term rise to a manageable level [6.6.5, 6.7].

Book chapter↗

USGS2005

Summary of significant results from studies of triazine herbicides and their degradation products in surface water, ground water, and precipitation in the midwestern United States during the 1990s

Nonpoint-source contamination of water resources from triazine herbicides has been a major water-quality issue during the 1990s in the United States. To address this issue, studies of surface water, ground water, and precipitation have been carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Midwestern United States. Reconnaissance studies of 147 streams were conducted to determine the geographic and seasonal distribution of atrazine, cyanazine, propazine, and simazine. These studies showed that high concentrations of herbicides were flushed from cropland and transported through the stream system as pulses in response to spring and summer rainfall. The studies also revealed the persistence of herbicides and their degradation products in streams. An investigation of 76 reservoirs showed that the occurrence and temporal distribution of herbicides and their degradation products in reservoir outflow could be related to reservoir and drainage-basin characteristics, water and land use, herbicide use, and climate. Significant findings showed that concentrations of atrazine and its degradation products remained elevated all summer and into the fall and that recently applied atrazine mixed with atrazine applied the previous year as water moved through a reservoir. Reconnaissance studies of 303 ground-water wells were completed to determine hydrogeological and seasonal occurrence, concentration, and distribution of herbicides and their degradation products. Samples collected from across the Midwestern United States consistently revealed that triazine herbicide degradation products commonly were found more frequently than their parent herbicide and that ground-water age could be an important factor in explaining variations in herbicide contamination. A final study investigated precipitation in the Midwestern United States, northeast to the Atlantic Ocean, and northward to the Canadian border. It found that the highest herbicide concentrations in precipitation occurred following herbicide application to cropland. Atrazine was detected most often, followed by deethylatrazine, cyanazine, and deisoproplyatrazine. Mass deposition of herbicides by precipitation was greatest in areas where herbicide use was intense and decreased with distance from the Midwest. Findings of the 1990s studies include an improved understanding of the occurrence, persistence, chemistry, and transport of triazine herbicides and their degradation products in the hydrologic environment. A significant increase in knowledge of triazine herbicides and development and improvement of analytical methods were accomplished in the past decade. The results produced are not only significant for the present (2005) but provide an important data set for future use.

Midwest region↗

USGS1997

Nitrate and selected pesticides in ground water of the Mid-Atlantic region

Data from more than 850 sites were compiled and analyzed to document the occurrence of nitrate and pesticides in ground water of the Mid-Atlantic region as part of the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment program of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Only those data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of regional networks between October 1985 and September 1996 (inclusive) were used in the analyses, and the data were examined to ensure analytical results are not biased toward sites at the same location or sites sampled multiple times during this period. Regional data are available for most of the Mid-Atlantic region but large spatial gaps in available data do exist. Nitrate was detected in nearly three-quarters of the samples for which it was analyzed, commonly at levels that suggest anthropogenic sources. Ten percent of samples contained nitrate at concentrations exceeding the Federal Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10 milligrams per liter as nitrogen. Pesticide compounds (including atrazine, metolachlor, prometon, simazine, and desethylatrazine, an atrazine degradate) were detected in about half of the samples for which they were analyzed, but rarely at concentrations exceeding established MCL?s. The most commonly detected pesticide compounds were desethylatrazine and atrazine. The occurrence of nitrate and pesticides in ground water of the Mid-Atlantic region is related to land cover and rock type. Likely sources of nitrate and pesticides to ground water include agricultural and urban land-use practices; rock type affects the movement of these compounds into and through the ground-water system. Nitrate concentrations in the compiled data set are significantly higher in ground water in agricultural areas than in urban or forested areas, but concentrations in areas of row crops are statistically indistinguishable from those in areas of pastures. Detection frequencies of atrazine, desethylatrazine, and simazine are indistinguishable among urban areas, row crops, and pastures. Prometon was most commonly detected in ground water in urban areas. Ground-water samples from forested areas typically contained the lowest concentrations of nitrate and detection frequencies of pesticides. Concentrations of nitrate and detection frequencies of pesticides were significantly higher in samples from carbonate rocks than in those from any other rock type. Most areas of the Mid-Atlantic region that are underlain by carbonate rocks have been developed for agricultural or urban use and the solution channels that are typical of carbonate rocks allow for relatively rapid transport of surficial contaminants throughout the ground-water system. Nitrate concentrations in unconsolidated aquifers were among the lowest for all rock types, possibly because of denitrification in organic-rich subsoils and shallow sediments.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Summary of Hydrologic Data for the Tuscarawas River Basin, Ohio, with an Annotated Bibliography

The Tuscarawas River Basin drains approximately 2,600 square miles in eastern Ohio and is home to 600,000 residents that rely on the water resources of the basin. This report summarizes the hydrologic conditions in the basin, describes over 400 publications related to the many factors that affect the groundwater and surface-water resources, and presents new water-quality information and a new water-level map designed to provide decisionmakers with information to assist in future data-collection efforts and land-use decisions. The Tuscarawas River is 130 miles long, and the drainage basin includes four major tributary basins and seven man-made reservoirs designed primarily for flood control. The basin lies within two physiographic provinces-the Glaciated Appalachian Plateaus to the north and the unglaciated Allegheny Plateaus to the south. Topography, soil types, surficial geology, and the overall hydrology of the basin were strongly affected by glaciation, which covered the northern one-third of the basin over 10,000 years ago. Within the glaciated region, unconsolidated glacial deposits, which are predominantly clay-rich till, overlie gently sloping Pennsylvanian-age sandstone, limestone, coal, and shale bedrock. Stream valleys throughout the basin are filled with sands and gravels derived from glacial outwash and alluvial processes. The southern two-thirds of the basin is characterized by similar bedrock units; however, till is absent and topographic relief is greater. The primary aquifers are sand- and gravel-filled valleys and sandstone bedrock. These sands and gravels are part of a complex system of aquifers that may exceed 400 feet in thickness and fill glacially incised valleys. Sand and gravel aquifers in this basin are capable of supporting sustained well yields exceeding 1,000 gallons per minute. Underlying sandstones within 300 feet of the surface also provide substantial quantities of water, with typical well yields of up to 100 gallons per minute. Although hydraulic connection between the sandstone bedrock and the sands and gravels in valleys is likely, it has not been assessed in the Tuscarawas River Basin. In 2001, the major land uses in the basin were approximately 40 percent forested, 39 percent agricultural, and 17 percent urban/residential. Between 1992 and 2001, forested land use decreased by 2 percent with correspondingly small increases in agricultural and urban land uses, but from 1980 to 2005, the 13-county area that encompasses the basin experienced a 7.1-percent increase in population. Higher population density and percentages of urban land use were typical of the northern, headwaters parts of the basin in and around the cities of Akron, Canton, and New Philadelphia; the southern area was rural. The basin receives approximately 38 inches of precipitation per year that exits the basin through evapotranspiration, streamflow, and groundwater withdrawals. Recharge to groundwater is estimated to range from 6 to 10 inches per year across the basin. In 2000, approximately 89 percent of the 116 million gallons per day of water used in the basin came from groundwater sources, whereas 11 percent came from surface-water sources. To examine directions of groundwater flow in the basin, a new dataset of water-level contours was developed by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. The contours were compiled on a map that shows that groundwater flows from the uplands towards the valleys and that the water-level surface mimics surface topography; however, there are areas where data were too sparse to adequately map the water-level surface. Additionally, little is known about deep groundwater that may be flowing into the basin from outside the basin and groundwater interactions with surface-water bodies. Many previous reports as well as new data collected as part of this study show that water quality in the streams and aquifers in the Tuscarawas River Basin has been degraded by urban, suburban, and rural

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

Use of chemical and isotopic tracers to characterize the interactions between ground water and surface water in mantled karst

In the mantled karst terrane of northern Florida, the water quality of the Upper Floridan aquifer is influenced by the degree of connectivity between the aquifer and the surface. Chemical and isotopic analyses [ 18 O/ 16 O (δ 18 O), 2 H/ 1 H (δD), 13 C/ 12 C (δ 13 C), tritium ( 3 H), and strontium‐87/strontium‐86 ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr)] along with geochemical mass‐balance modeling were used to identify the dominant hydrochemical processes that control the composition of ground water as it evolves downgradient in two systems. In one system, surface water enters the Upper Floridan aquifer through a sinkhole located in the Northern Highlands physiographic unit. In the other system, surface water enters the aquifer through a sinkhole lake (Lake Bradford) in the Woodville Karst Plain. Differences in the composition of water isotopes (δ 18 O and <δD) in rainfall, ground water, and surface water were used to develop mixing models of surface water (leakage of water to the Upper Floridan aquifer from a sinkhole lake and a sinkhole) and ground water. Using mass‐balance calculations, based on differences in δ 18 O and δD, the proportion of lake water that mixed with meteoric water ranged from 7 to 86% in water from wells located in close proximity to Lake Bradford. In deeper parts of the Upper Floridan aquifer, water enriched in 18 O and D from five of 12 sampled municipal wells indicated that recharge from a sinkhole (1 to 24%) and surface water with an evaporated isotopic signature (2 to 32%) was mixing with ground water. The solute isotopes, δ 13 C and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, were used to test the sensitivity of binary and ternary mixing models, and to estimate the amount of mass transfer of carbon and other dissolved species in geochemical reactions. In ground water downgradient from Lake Bradford, the dominant processes controlling carbon cycling in ground water were dissolution of carbonate minerals, aerobic degradation of organic matter, and hydrolysis of silicate minerals. In the deeper parts of the Upper Floridan aquifer, the major processes controlling the concentrations of major dissolved species included dissolution of calcite and dolomite, and degradation of organic matter under oxic conditions. The Upper Floridan aquifer is highly susceptible to contamination from activities at the land surface in the Tallahassee area. The presence of post‐ 1950s concentrations of 3 H in ground water from depths greater than 100 m below land surface indicates that water throughout much of the Upper Floridan aquifer has been recharged during the last 40 years. Even though mixing is likely between ground water and surface water in many parts of the study area, the Upper Floridan aquifer produces good quality water, which due to dilution effects shows little if any impact from trace elements or nutrients that are present in surface waters.

Ground Water↗

USGS2000

Water-quality conditions and relation to drainage-basin characteristics in the Scituate Reservoir Basin, Rhode Island, 1982-95

The Scituate Reservoir Basin covers about 94 square miles in north central Rhode Island and supplies more than 60 percent of the State of Rhode Island's drinking water. The basin includes the Scituate Reservoir Basin and six smaller tributary reservoirs with a combined capacity of about 40 billion gallons. Most of the basin is forested and undeveloped. However, because of its proximity to the Providence, Rhode Island, metropolitan area, the basin is subject to increasing development pressure and there is concern that this may lead to the degradation of the water supply. Selected water-quality constituent concentrations, loads, and trends in the Scituate Reservoir Basin, Rhode Island, were investigated locate parts of the basin likely responsible for exporting disproportionately large amounts of water-quality constituents to streams, rivers, and tributary reservoirs, and to determine whether water quality in the basin has been changing with time. Water-quality data collected between 1982 and 1995 by the Providence Water Supply Board PWSB) in 34 subbasins of the Scituate Reservoir Basin were analyzed. Subbasin loads and yields of total coliform bacteria, chloride, nitrate, iron, and manganese, estimated from constituent concentrations and estimated mean daily discharge records for the 1995 water year, were used to determine which subbasins contributed disproportionately large amounts of these constituents. Measurements of pH, color, turbidity, and concentrations of total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese made between 1982 and 1995 by the PWSB were evaluated for trends. To determine the potential effects of human-induced changes in drainage- basin characteristics on water quality in the basin, relations between drainage-basin characteristics and concentrations of selected water-quality constituents also were investigated. Median values for pH, turbidity, total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, and iron were largest in subbasins with predominately residential land use. Median instantaneous loads reflected drainage-basin size. However, loads normalized by drainage area (median instantaneous yields) also were largest in residential areas where point and non-point sources are likely, and in areas of poorly drained soils. Significant trends in water-quality constituents from 1982 to 1995 in the Scituate Reservoir Basin indicate that the quality of the water resources in the basin may be slowly changing. Scituate Reservoir subbasins with large amounts of residential land use showed increasing trends in alkalinity and chloride. In contrast, subbasins distributed throughout the drainage basin showed increasing trends in pH, color, nitrate, and iron concentrations, indicating that these characteristics and constituents may be affected more by atmospheric deposition. Although changing, water-quality constituent concentrations in the Scituate Reservoir Basin only occasionally exceeded Rhode Island and USEPA water-quality guidelines and standards. Result of correlation analysis between pH, color, turbidity, and concentrations total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese and land use, geology, wetlands, slope, soil drainability, and roads indicated that the percentage of wetlands, roads, and slope appear have the greatest effect on water-quality in the Scituate Reservoir Basin. The percentage of urban, residential, and commercial land use also are important, but to a lesser degree than wetlands, roads, and slope. Finally, geology appears to have the least effect on water quality compared to other drainage-basin characteristics investigated.

Rhode Island↗

USGS2019

Landscape connectivity planning for adaptation to future climate and land-use change

Purpose of Review We examined recent literature on promoting habitat connectivity in the context of climate change (CC) and land-use change (LUC). These two global change forcings have wide-reaching ecological effects that are projected to worsen in the future. Improving connectivity is a common adaptation strategy, but CC and LUC can also degrade planned connections, potentially reducing their effectiveness. We synthesize advances in connectivity design approaches, identify challenges confronted by researchers and practitioners, and offer suggestions for future research. Recent Findings Recent studies incorporated future CC into connectivity design more often than LUC and rarely considered the two drivers jointly. When considering CC, most studies have focused on relatively broad spatial and temporal extents and have included either species-based targets or coarse-filter targets like geodiversity and climate gradients. High levels of uncertainty about future LUC and lack of consistent, readily available model simulations are likely hindering its inclusion in connectivity modeling. This high degree of uncertainty extends to efforts to jointly consider future CC and LUC. Summary We argue that successful promotion of connectivity as a means to adapt to CC and LUC will depend on (1) the velocity of CC, (2) the velocity of LUC, and (3) the degree of existing landscape fragmentation. We present a new conceptual framework to assist in identifying connectivity networks given these three factors. Given the high uncertainty associated with future CC and LUC, incorporating insights from decision science into connectivity planning will facilitate the development of more robust adaptation strategies.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗

USGS2026

Restoring dryland water cycles for precipitation feedback and climate stability; a review

Drylands across the globe are experiencing intensifying water scarcity, land degradation, and hydroclimatic extremes. This review integrates evidence from multidecadal field studies, hydrologic monitoring, geomorphic and ecological assessments, remote sensing, and land–atmosphere science to evaluate how restoration influences key components of the terrestrial water cycle. Low-tech natural infrastructure in dryland streams (NIDS)—including check dams, leaky weirs, one-rock dams, and gabions—has emerged as a promising but under-synthesized nature-based solution for restoring hydrologic function in these environments. We describe the mechanisms through which these interventions modify runoff detention, infiltration, sediment and alluvial storage, shallow-groundwater recharge, vegetation recovery, and surface-energy partitioning, and we summarize outcomes across diverse dryland settings. Findings consistently show increased water residence time, enhanced soil-moisture storage, expanded riparian vegetation, extended flow duration, and shifts toward greater latent-heat flux—producing localized cooling and strengthened ecohydrological feedbacks. Building on these localized effects, we articulate a hypothesis that links the spatial extent of restoration, the density of NIDS per unit drainage area, and the magnitude of the latent-to-sensible-heat contrast generated by wetter post-rainfall conditions. Specifically, we hypothesize that when NIDS are implemented at densities permitted by topography and across areas large enough to maintain elevated soil moisture after storm events, the resulting increases in latent heat flux, surface cooling, and boundary-layer moistening may enhance moisture convergence and boundary-layer development, potentially increasing the likelihood or stability of convective precipitation, analogous to how reductions in these processes have contributed to regional drought intensification. These land–atmosphere feedbacks remain untested at scale but represent an important research Frontier. By integrating hydrologic, geomorphic, ecological, and atmospheric perspectives, this review provides a comprehensive framework for considering how low-tech, landscape-scale interventions can strengthen watershed resilience and contribute to climate-relevant nature-based solutions.

Arizona↗

USGS2023

Vulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous United States to water quality change under future climate and land-use

Changes in climate and land-use and land-cover (LULC) are expected to influence surface water runoff and nutrient characteristics of estuarine watersheds, but the extent to which estuaries are vulnerable to altered nutrient loading under future conditions is poorly understood. The present work aims to address this gap through the development of a new vulnerability assessment framework that accounts for (a) estuarine exposure to projected changes in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads as a function of LULC and climate change under several scenarios, (b) sensitivity, and (c) adaptive capacity. The framework was applied to 112 estuaries and their contributing watersheds across the contiguous U.S., specifically to look at regional variability in estuarine vulnerability to nutrient loading. Study findings revealed that the largest increases in estuarine nutrient loads are expected in the North and South Atlantic regions and eastern Gulf of Mexico, while the lowest increases are expected in the North and South Pacific regions and the western Gulf of Mexico. However, the North Atlantic and the South Pacific had the highest adaptive capacity, which could potentially counteract the effects of LULC and climate change on nutrient loads. Strong variation in predicted estuarine nutrient loads was observed as a function of climate model projections, while projected LULC changes were more consistently associated with elevated loads. Our findings illustrate the benefits of integrating natural and socio-ecological factors to identify opportunities to develop adaptation plans and policies to mitigate ecological degradation in vitally important estuaries.

Earth's Future↗