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USGS2014

Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2023

Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The 2010 Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load was established for the water quality and ecological restoration of the Chesapeake Bay. In 2017, the latest science, data, and modeling tools were used to develop revised Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs). In this article, we examine the vulnerability of the Chesapeake Bay watershed to the combined pressures of climate change and growth in population, agricultural intensity, and economic activity for the 60-year period 1995–2055. The results will be used to revise WIPs, as needed, to account for expected increases in loads. Assessing changes relative to 1995 for the years 2025, 2035, 2045, and 2055, mean annual precipitation increases of 3.11%, 4.21%, 5.34%, and 6.91%, respectively, air temperature increases of 1.12, 1.45, 1.84, and 2.12°C, respectively, and potential evapotranspiration increases of 3.36%, 4.43%, 5.54%, and 6.35%, respectively, are projected. Population in the watershed is expected to grow by 3.5 million between 2025 and 2055. Watershed model results show incremental increases in streamflow (2.3%–6.2%), nitrogen (2.6%–10.8%), phosphorus (4.5%–26.7%), and sediment (3.8%–18.8%) loads to the tidal Bay due to climate change. Growth in population, agricultural intensity, development, and economic activity resulted in relatively smaller increases in loads compared to climate change.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2020

Diets of Longnose Sucker in Yellowstone Lake, Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.

Invasive species introduction and expansion is the second greatest threat to global biodiversity decline after habitat degradation. Introduced in the 1930s, the benthivorous Longnose Sucker ( Catostomus catostomus ) became established in Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming, USA, and used tributary streams for spawning. With this introduction, concerns were raised regarding their possible competition for food resources with native adfluvial Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri ). Additionally, insufficient literature exists on Longnose Sucker feeding habits throughout their range, and there has been no comprehensive study of Longnose Sucker diet in Yellowstone Lake. The need exists for understanding the community ecology and food web dynamics in Yellowstone Lake, especially as non-native Lake Trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) have caused declines in Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout through predation. The objectives of this study were to examine possible size-specific shifts in feeding habits, evaluate feeding strategy, and compare historical and contemporary diet data of Longnose Suckers in Yellowstone Lake. Diet data collected during summer of 2018 were analyzed by length-class to test for size-specific diet shifts. As Longnose Sucker length increased, copepods ( Diacyclops bicuspidatus thomasi, Leptodiaptomus ashlandi or Hesperodiaptomus shoshone ) decreased in proportion by weight. In contrast, dipterans (Chironomidae) and amphipods ( Hyalella spp. or Gammarus spp.) varied in proportion by weight in the diet across length classes. We assessed the feeding strategy by evaluating the relationship between prey-specific abundance and percent frequency of occurrence. This assessment indicates that Longnose Suckers have a heterogeneous diet and generalized feeding strategy as all prey items had a prey-specific abundance value of <50%. Diet composition differed significantly between historical and contemporary samples, likely related to the differences in sampling locations and possibly due to a Lake Trout-induced trophic cascade. This study established the diet composition and feeding habits of Longnose Suckers residing in Yellowstone Lake, thus, expanding our knowledge of Longnose Sucker feeding patterns and ecology.

Wyoming↗

USGS2013

Location-only and use-availability data: analysis methods converge

This Special Feature arose from a session on a topic of the same name that took place during The Wildlife Society meeting in Kona, Hawaii, from 5 to 10 November, 2011. The purpose of that session and this Special Feature is to compare methods for predictive modelling of species geographical distributions and the modelling of habitat (resource) selection by animals. The predictive modelling of species geographical distributions and the modelling of habitat selection based on the environmental conditions at sites where animals are known to occur are essentially the same problem. Presence-only and used-available data both consist of a sample of locations with known presence of a species or an individual. A separate sample of locations from a study area, with unknown presence (pseudo-absence), is also assumed to exist. The probability or relative probability of presence of a species or individual is modelled and estimated across a certain time implicitly defined by the sampling mechanism, for example, by the time period during which museum specimens or radiotelemetry data were collected. A number of modelling methods have appeared in the literature over the last couple of decades. Many of these methods were made feasible by the availability of geographical information systems (GIS), global positioning system (GPS) radiotelemetry and public online data access initiatives (e.g. global biodiversity information facility). The papers in this Special Feature are intended to present the state of the methodological art in their subject area, with particular attention paid to contrasting the advantages and disadvantages of alternative methods of analysis for data.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2024

Applying local and global sensitivity analysis to inform bigheaded carp management

Natural resource managers commonly use population-level models to aid in understanding the status of target populations or the potential implications of management actions. Sensitivity analyses, specifically, local sensitivity analysis (LSA) and global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exist as tools to improve understanding of these models, the importance of specific parameters to model outcomes, and the assumptions inherent to population models. However, applied ecology and closely related fields such as fisheries and wildlife management rarely use LSA or GSA. Here, we apply LSA and GSA to the Spatially Explicit Invasive Carp Population model, a population-level model used to simulate and compare management actions on the invasive silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix population in the Illinois River. The spatial structure within the model arises from the navigation “pools” that exist between navigation lock-and-dam in the river and are also the focus of fisheries management in the river. We completed LSA and GSA for two reasons: (1) to compare the importance of model input parameters on simulated model populations and (2) to demonstrate the use of LSA and GSA for population-level models. In our system, the most important sensitivity values generally were detected in Alton Pool. This pool is the farthest downstream and includes a direct connection with the Mississippi River. These results indicate that the population dynamics in Alton Pool are an important driver of the population dynamics throughout the Illinois River. Management outcomes in this system will, therefore, be strongly dependent on the dynamics of Alton Pool.

Illinois↗

USGS2017

Isotopic structure of Lake Whitefish in Lake Huron: Evidence for regional and local populations based on resource use

Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis is the most commercially valuable species in Lake Huron. The fishery for this species has historically been managed based on 25 management units (17 in Canada, 8 in the USA). However, congruence between the contemporary population structure of Lake Whitefish and management units is poorly understood. We used stable isotopes of carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N), food web markers that reflect patterns in resource use (i.e., prey, location, habitat), to assess the population structure of spawning-phase Lake Whitefish collected from 32 sites (1,474 fish) across Lake Huron. We found large isotopic variation among fish from different sites (ranges: δ 13 C = 10.2‰, δ 15 N = 5.5‰) and variable niche size and levels of overlap (standard ellipse area = 1.0–4.3‰ 2 ). Lake Huron contained spawning-phase fish from four major isotopic clusters largely defined by extensive variation in δ 13 C, and the isotopic composition of fish sampled was spatially structured both within and between lake basins. Based on cluster compositions, we identified six putative regional groups, some of which represented sites of high diversity (three to four clusters) and others with less (one to two clusters). Analysis of isotopic values from Lake Whitefish collected from summer feeding locations and baseline prey items showed similar isotopic variation and established spatial linkage between spawning-phase and summer fish. Our results show that summer feeding location contributes strongly to the isotopic structure we observed in spawning-phase fish. One of the regional groups we identified in northern Georgian Bay is highly distinct based on isotopic composition and possibly ecologically unique within Lake Huron. Our findings are congruent with several previous studies using different markers (genetics, mark–recapture), and we conclude that current management units are generally too small and numerous to reflect the population structure of Lake Whitefish in Lake Huron.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2018

Cumulative spring discharge and survey effort influence occupancy and detection of a threatened freshwater mussel, the Suwannee Moccasinshell

Freshwater mussels (Unionidae) are among the most imperiled groups of organisms in the world, and the lack of information regarding species distributions, life-history characteristics, and ecological and biological requirements may limit the protection of remaining mussel populations. We examined the influence of hydrologic factors on the occurrence of the Suwannee Moccasinshell Medionidus walkeri, a federally threatened freshwater mussel species, endemic to the Suwannee River Basin in Georgia and Florida. We also evaluated the influence of survey effort on detection of Suwannee Moccasinshell during field surveys. We compiled all recent (2013–2016) mussel survey records in the Suwannee River Basin. We calculated cumulative discharge contributed by upstream springs for each of 220 survey locations. We combined the spring discharge predictor variable with Suwannee Moccasinshell detection and nondetection data from each survey location to develop a suite of occupancy models. Modeling results indicated that detection of Suwannee Moccasinshell during surveys was strongly and positively related to survey effort. Modeling results also indicated that sites with cumulative spring discharge inputs exceeding ∼28 cubic meters per second were most likely (i.e., predicted occupancy probabilities >0.5) to support Suwannee Moccasinshell populations. However, occupancy declined in the lowermost reaches of the Suwannee mainstem despite high spring discharge inputs, presumably due to greater tidal influences and differences in physicochemical habitat conditions. Historical localities where Suwannee Moccasinshell has presumably been extirpated are all devoid of springs in their upstream watersheds. We hypothesize that springs may buffer extremely tannic, and at times polluted, surface waters, in addition to maintaining adequate flows during periods of drought, thereby promoting the persistence of Suwannee Moccasinshell populations. Our study suggests that springs are a critical resource for Suwannee Moccasinshell and may be more important for conservation planning than was previously recognized.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Divergent migration within lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) populations: Multiple distinct patterns exist across an unrestricted migration corridor

Population structure, distribution, abundance, and dispersal arguably underpin the entire field of animal ecology, with consequences for regional species persistence, and provision of ecosystem services. Divergent migration behaviours among individuals or among populations is an important aspect of the ecology of highly-mobile animals, allowing populations to exploit spatially- or temporally-distributed food and space resources. This study investigated the spatial ecology of lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) within the barrier free Huron-Erie Corridor (HEC), which connects Lake Huron and Lake Erie of the North American Laurentian Great Lakes. Over six years (2011 – 2016), movements of 268 lake sturgeon in the HEC were continuously monitored across the Great Lakes using acoustic telemetry (10 yr battery life acoustic transmitters). Five distinct migration behaviours were identified with hierarchical cluster analysis, based on the phenology and duration of river and lake use. Lake sturgeon in the HEC were found to contain a high level of intraspecific divergent migration, including partial migration with the existence of residents. Specific behaviours included year-round river residency and multiple lake-migrant behaviours that involved movements between lakes and rivers. Over 85% of individuals were assign to migration behaviours as movements were consistently repeated over the study, which suggested migration behaviours were consistent and persistent in lake sturgeon. Differential use of specific rivers or lakes by acoustic-tagged lake sturgeon further subdivided individuals into 14 “contingents” (spatiotemporally segregated subgroups). Contingents associated with one river (Detroit or St. Clair) were rarely detected in the other river, which confirmed that lake sturgeon in the Detroit and St. Clair represent two semi-independent populations that could require separate management consideration for their conservation. The distribution of migration behaviours did not vary between populations, sexes, body size, or among release locations, which indicated that intrapopulation variability in migratory behaviour is a general feature of the spatial ecology of lake sturgeon in un-fragmented landscapes.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2020

Development of a novel framework for modeling field-scale conservation effects of depressional wetlands in agricultural landscapes

The intermixed cropland, grassland, and wetland ecosystems of the upper mid-western United States combine to provide a suite of valuable ecological services. Grassland and wetland losses in the upper midwestern United States have been extensive, but government-funded conservation programs have protected and restored hundreds of thousands of acres of wetland and grassland habitat in the region. The value of restored wetlands in agricultural fields is complex, and the USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service, Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) has been lacking the methodology to include these conservation practices in their analyses. Our aim is to develop a reproducible methodology for simulating wetlands within the CEAP cropland modeling framework used to evaluate other agricultural conservation practices. Furthermore, we evaluate the effect of using upland conservation practices on the functioning of restored wetlands. By simulating the addition of a depressional wetland that effectively removes 6% of the field from crop production, we obtained a 15% reduction in annual runoff and a 29% and 28% reduction in mean annual nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses, respectively. The presence of the depressional wetland in the field is estimated to also reduce edge-of-field losses of sediments by 20% and sediment-bound N and P by 19% and 23%, respectively. Additionally, adding a grass filter strip around the wetland greatly decreased sediment inputs to the wetland, increasing the effective life of the wetland, in terms of its ability to perform valued services, by decades to centuries. Our method for modeling depressional wetlands embedded in cropped fields provides a means to quantify the effects of wetland conservation practices on field-level losses for regional assessments, such as the CEAP.

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation↗

USGS2023

The patchwork governance of ecologically available water: A case study in the Upper Missouri Headwaters, Montana, United States

Institutional authority and responsibility for allocating water to ecosystems (“ecologically available water” [EAW]) is spread across local, state, and federal agencies, which operate under a range of statutes, mandates, and planning processes. We use a case study of the Upper Missouri Headwaters Basin in southwestern Montana, United States, to illustrate this fragmented institutional landscape. Our goals are to (a) describe the patchwork of agencies and institutional actors whose intersecting authorities and actions influence the EAW in the study basin; (b) describe the range of governance mechanisms these agencies use, including laws, policies, administrative programs, and planning processes; and (c) assess the extent to which the collective governance regime creates gaps in responsibility. We find the water governance regime includes a range of nested mechanisms that in various ways facilitate or hinder the governance of EAW. We conclude the current multilevel governance regime leaves certain aspects of EAW unaddressed and does not adequately account for the interconnections between water in different parts of the ecosystem, creating integrative gaps. We suggest that more intentional and robust coordination could provide a means to address these gaps.

Montana↗

USGS2014

Effect of passive acoustic sampling methodology on detecting bats after declines from white nose syndrome

Concomitant with the emergence and spread of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and precipitous decline of many bat species in North America, natural resource managers need modified and/or new techniques for bat inventory and monitoring that provide robust occupancy estimates. We used Anabat acoustic detectors to determine the most efficient passive acoustic sampling design for optimizing detection probabilities of multiple bat species in a WNS-impacted environment in New York, USA. Our sampling protocol included: six acoustic stations deployed for the entire duration of monitoring as well as a 4 x 4 grid and five transects of 5-10 acoustic units that were deployed for 6-8 night sample durations surveyed during the summers of 2011-2012. We used Program PRESENCE to determine detection probability and site occupancy estimates. Overall, the grid produced the highest detection probabilities for most species because it contained the most detectors and intercepted the greatest spatial area. However, big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus ) and species not impacted by WNS were detected easily regardless of sampling array. Endangered Indiana ( Myotis sodalis ) and little brown ( Myotis lucifugus ) and tri-colored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ) showed declines in detection probabilities over our study, potentially indicative of continued WNS-associated declines. Identification of species presence through efficient methodologies is vital for future conservation efforts as bat populations decline further due to WNS and other factors.

Journal of Ecology and the Natural Environment↗

USGS2023

Incorporating metapopulation dynamics to inform invasive species management: Evaluating bighead and silver carp control strategies in the Illinois River

1. Invasive species management can benefit from predictive models that incorporate spatially explicit demographics and dispersal to guide resource allocation decisions. 2. We used invasive bigheaded carps ( Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in the Illinois River, USA as a case study to create a spatially explicit model to evaluate the allocation of future management efforts. Specifically, we compared additional harvest (e.g. near the invasion front vs. source populations) and enhanced movement deterrents to meet the management goal of reducing abundance at the invasion front. 3. We found additional harvest in lower river pools (i.e. targeting source populations) more effectively limited population sizes upriver at the invasion front compared to allocating the same harvest levels near the invasion front. Likewise, decreasing passage (i.e. lock and dam structures) at the farthest, feasible downriver location limited invasion front population size more than placing movement deterrents farther upriver. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the benefits of adopting a multipronged approach for invasive species management, combining suppression of source populations with disrupting movement between source and sink populations thereby producing compounding benefits for control. Our results also demonstrate the importance of considering metapopulation dynamics for invasive species control programs when achieving long-term management goals.

Illinois↗

USGS2014

Spatiotemporal associations of reservoir nutrient characteristics and the invasive, harmful alga Prymnesium parvum in West Texas

Golden alga ( Prymnesium parvum ) is a harmful alga that has caused ecological and economic harm in freshwater and marine systems worldwide. In inland systems of North America, toxic blooms have nearly eliminated fish populations in some systems. Modifying nutrient profiles through alterations to land or water use may be a viable alternative for golden alga control in reservoirs. The main objective of this study was to improve our understanding of the nutrient dynamics that influence golden alga bloom formation and toxicity in west Texas reservoirs. We examined eight sites in the Upper Colorado River basin, Texas: three impacted reservoirs that have experienced repeated golden alga blooms; two reference reservoirs where golden alga is present but nontoxic; and three confluence sites downstream of the impacted and reference sites. Total, inorganic, and organic nitrogen and phosphorus and their ratios were quantified monthly along with golden alga abundance and ichthyotoxicity between December 2010 and July 2011. Blooms persisted for several months at the impacted sites, which were characterized by high organic nitrogen and low inorganic nitrogen. At impacted sites, abundance was positively associated with inorganic phosphorus and bloom termination coincided with increases in inorganic nitrogen and decreases in inorganic phosphorus in late spring. Management of both inorganic and organic forms of nutrients may create conditions in reservoirs unfavorable to golden alga.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2026

Assessing environmental drivers of denitrification in restored riverine floodplains

Restoration of impaired floodplains is an increasingly prevalent strategy for alleviating water quality concerns and reducing downstream flooding at watershed scales. Floodplains temporarily store water and slow flow velocity to promote sedimentation during overbank flooding and remove inorganic nitrogen from floodwater and groundwater via denitrification. Evaluating the impacts of different restoration strategies on denitrification can inform more strategic investments into floodplain modifications that improve water quality outcomes. Our research investigates how denitrification rates in floodplains respond to environmental factors that are actionable from an engineering perspective through design and water resources management. We seasonally measured soil denitrification enzyme activity and various environmental characteristics in 4 floodplains with different restoration design and management approaches at the confluence of the Wabash and Tippecanoe Rivers in Indiana, United States. Our results showed that denitrification rates in an agricultural floodplain were significantly lower than in restored floodplains with native vegetation. Certain soil conditions characteristic of floodplain wetlands were associated with higher denitrification, particularly elevated total nitrogen, moisture, silt, and organic matter contents. Vegetation species composition was correlated with denitrification rates. This link may reflect the direct effects of vegetation on soil conditions, such as supplying labile organic carbon, or indirect effects, such as vegetation acting as an indicator of hydrologic regime and land use. Denitrification seasonally varied, peaking in winter when nitrate supply from rivers draining agricultural watersheds in the region is also high. Substrate limitation of soil denitrification enzyme activity was most significant during the summer when overbank flooding, which replenishes soil nitrogen stocks, rarely occurs. Our findings indicate that denitrification capacity will likely be maximized in riverine floodplains that are restored as wetlands with diverse native vegetation and enhanced hydrologic connectivity. Such restoration activities promote higher denitrification rates via elevated moisture, fine sediment deposition, and soil organic matter.

Tippecanoe River, Wabash River↗

USGS2019

Size selectivity of sampling gears used to sample Kokanee

Kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka provide valued recreational fisheries and also serve as a prey resource for economically, socially, and ecologically important fishes. As such, management of kokanee is a major focus of natural resource agencies. Kokanee are typically monitored using midwater trawls, but the interpretation of data collected using midwater trawls is difficult due to the unknown size selectivity of the gear. We sought to assess the length selectivity of midwater trawls by comparing estimates obtained from midwater trawls with estimates obtained from gill nets adjusted for size selectivity. Experimental curtain gill nets and midwater trawls were used in conjunction to sample kokanee in seven lentic systems in Idaho. The size selectivity of gill nets was estimated by accounting for the probability of encounter and the probability of retention. Estimates of size selectivity were then used to adjust the length distribution of fish sampled in gill nets. The adjusted length distribution of fish sampled in gill nets was compared with estimates obtained from midwater trawls to identify potential size selectivity of midwater trawls. A pattern of size selectivity was apparent for both sampling techniques. The average length of kokanee sampled with midwater trawls was 111 mm; whereas, kokanee sampled with gill nets had a mean length of 235 mm. Our results suggest experimental gill nets are useful for common sampling of kokanee (e.g., trend monitoring) because the gear is less size selective than midwater trawls and is adjustable for size selectivity. However, midwater trawls are likely the best gear for addressing questions associated with early life history. Overall, our results provide a better understanding of gill-net and midwater trawl selectivity and ultimately improve the ability to sample and manage the species.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2020

Soil water availability shapes species richness in mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities

Questions Ecological communities are controlled by multiple, interacting abiotic and biotic factors that influence the distribution, abundance, and diversity of species. These processes jointly determine resource availability, resource competition, and ultimately species richness. For many terrestrial ecosystems in dryland climates, soil water availability is the most frequent limiting resource for plant species. We used field sampling coupled with process‐based soil water balance modeling to explore the relative importance of multiple macroclimatic, ecohydrological, and biotic variables on plant species and functional type richness at the landscape scale in dryland plant communities. Location Dryland plant communities dominated by big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) that span climatic and elevational gradients in Wyoming, USA. Methods We quantified species richness at 1,000 m 2 and used multiple regression to determine whether mean climatic conditions, multiple metrics of soil moisture from a soil water balance model (SOILWAT2), soil physical and chemical properties, and shrub stand structure (biotic) variables were related to species and functional type richness. Results Species richness varied between 16 and 54 across sites. We found that species and functional type richness were related to both macroclimate and ecohydrology, but ecohydrology explained slightly more variation than climate. Biotic variables were always secondary to macroclimate and ecohydrology in our models. Variance partitioning revealed that large portions of variability in species (~54%), forb (~47%), and grass (~40%) richness were explained by ecohydrological variables. Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of the spatial and temporal distribution of soil water for dryland plant species richness and suggest that documenting the ways in which climate, vegetation, and soil properties interact to determine soil water availability is critical for understanding biodiversity patterns in dryland plant communities. This work has relevance for other mid‐latitude, shrub‐dominated dryland plant communities where soil water availability strongly influences ecosystem structure and function.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in prey abundance and vulnerability shapes the foraging tactics of an omnivore

Prey abundance and prey vulnerability vary across space and time, but we know little about how they mediate predator–prey interactions and predator foraging tactics. To evaluate the interplay between prey abundance, prey vulnerability and predator space use, we examined patterns of black bear ( Ursus americanus ) predation of caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) neonates in Newfoundland, Canada using data from 317 collared individuals (9 bears, 34 adult female caribou, 274 caribou calves). During the caribou calving season, we predicted that landscape features would influence calf vulnerability to bear predation, and that bears would actively hunt calves by selecting areas associated with increased calf vulnerability. Further, we hypothesized that bears would dynamically adjust their foraging tactics in response to spatiotemporal changes in calf abundance and vulnerability (collectively, calf availability). Accordingly, we expected bears to actively hunt calves when they were most abundant and vulnerable, but switch to foraging on other resources as calf availability declined. As predicted, landscape heterogeneity influenced risk of mortality, and bears displayed the strongest selection for areas where they were most likely to kill calves, which suggested they were actively hunting caribou. Initially, the per‐capita rate at which bears killed calves followed a type‐I functional response, but as the calving season progressed and calf vulnerability declined, kill rates dissociated from calf abundance. In support of our hypothesis, bears adjusted their foraging tactics when they were less efficient at catching calves, highlighting the influence that predation phenology may have on predator space use. Contrary to our expectations, however, bears appeared to continue to hunt caribou as calf availability declined, but switched from a tactic of selecting areas of increased calf vulnerability to a tactic that maximized encounter rates with calves. Our results reveal that generalist predators can dynamically adjust their foraging tactics over short time‐scales in response to changing prey abundance and vulnerability. Further, they demonstrate the utility of integrating temporal dynamics of prey availability into investigations of predator–prey interactions, and move towards a mechanistic understanding of the dynamic foraging tactics of a large omnivore.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2011

Spatial ecology of white-tailed deer fawns in the northern Great Plains: implications of loss of conservation reserve program grasslands

Few studies have evaluated how wildlife, and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in particular, respond to Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands. We conducted a 3-year study (2007–2009) to determine the influence of CRP on fawn ecology during a time of declining CRP enrollment. We captured and radiocollared 81 fawn white-tailed deer during 15 May to 15 June 2007–2009 in north-central South Dakota, collected 6,505 locations, and documented 70 summer home ranges. Mean summer home ranges increased temporally during 2007–2009 ( P < 0.001) and corresponded to a 41% loss of CRP grasslands in the area (2.3% loss in land cover and approx. 21% loss in cover habitat in the study area) over the duration of the study. Additionally, mean movement between daily locations increased ( P < 0.001) from 2007 to 2009. Analysis of covariance models indicated that change in CRP influenced home-range size, and change in CRP and wheat influenced daily movement. Smaller home ranges and reduced movements were associated with greater quantity of CRP available to fawns, and increased movements were associated with more acreage of wheat available to fawns. Fawns shifted resource selection during the summer at a mean age ranging from 48.8 days to 58.6 days, and this shift was associated with height of corn (83–87 cm). During early summer, fawns consistently selected for CRP; selection of wheat progressed temporally from avoidance in 2007 to selection in 2009. During late summer, fawns consistently selected for corn habitat and used CRP at least in proportion to its availability. Reduction in CRP-grasslands seemed to increase fawn home-range size and daily movements and, influenced change in resource selection to wheat. Current legislation mandates continued decrease in CRP enrollment and concomitant increase in the planting of corn for ethanol production. Management of habitat throughout the grasslands of the Northern Great Plains that maximizes cover habitats would provide neonates with adequate cover for protection from predators.

Great Plains↗