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1,660 records · Page 14Linked to original sources

Diel temperature signals track seasonal shifts in localized groundwater contributions to headwater streamflow generation at network scale

Groundwater contributions to streamflow sustain aquatic ecosystem resilience; streams without significant groundwater inputs often have well-coupled air and water temperatures that degrade cold-water habitat during warm low flow periods. Widespread uncertainty in stream-groundwater connectivity across space and time has created disparate predictions of energy and nutrient fluxes across headwater networks, hindering predictions of cold-water habitat resilience under climate change scenarios. Recently, annual paired air and water temperature signals have been harnessed to indicate stream water thermal sensitivity and the dominance of deep versus shallow groundwater influence, although the utility of diel air–water temperature signal metrics for hydrologic inference has remained unexplored. Here we analyzed two consecutive years of locally paired, air–water temperature data from 47 headwater stream sites in the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA, and discovered characteristic seasonal patterns in diel temperature signal sinusoid metrics (amplitude ratio, phase lag, and mean ratio) driven by shifts in streamflow generation mechanisms and stream network position. Hydrologic interpretations of observed patterns were supported by stream heat budget model scenarios and additional analysis of paired air–water temperature data from two streams in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA, with well characterized stream-groundwater connectivity. We found that within smaller tributaries, streamflow generation transitions from runoff to groundwater dominance were driven by hillslope drying during seasonal periods of lower precipitation. This was evidenced by significant correlations (p < 0.01) between daily water:air temperature signal amplitudes (non-linear decreases of ∼ 50 %) and derived base-flow index at 22 of the 28 sites, indicating enhanced local groundwater influence on streamflow promotes decoupling of diel air–water temperature signals. Additionally, ratios between daily water:air temperature signal means were lower in tributaries (∼0.68) when compared to main-stem (∼0.8) sites, increasing linearly throughout the observational period. In conceptual stream heat budget models, groundwater inflow had minimal effects on daily phase lags (∼0.2 hr), but increases in fractional groundwater discharge (0–50 %) depressed daily amplitude (∼20 % to 50 %) and mean ratios (∼15 %), supporting the sensitivity of daily metrics to interpreted changes in seasonal groundwater contributions to streamflow. During observational periods (i.e., April through October 2021 and 2022), significant differences (p < 0.01) between tributary and main-stem air–water metrics occurred when base-flow contributions were highest (∼0.93 vs. ∼ 0.68), as sites lower in the network had daily temperature metrics dominated by stream channel thermal inertia, rather than local groundwater connectivity, showing enhanced air–water diel signal coupling during warmer, drier periods. Divergent air temperature coupling across the network was interpreted as being driven by distance from local groundwater source zones, additional lateral groundwater inflows do not contribute a meaningful fraction to channel discharge lower in the network. Given the growing footprint of stream temperature observations, diel air–water temperature signals can provide distributed metrics sensitive to upstream groundwater discharge. Consequently, these metrics can support ongoing efforts by resource managers and researchers seeking to forecast the resilience of cold-water habitat to climate warming and changing precipitation regimes in mountain headwater streams.

New York, Virginia

Geologic input databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico – U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model update: Crustal faults component

The last National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) was published in 2003. In advance of the 2025 PRVI NSHM update, we created three geologic input databases to summarize new onshore and offshore fault source information in the northern Caribbean region between 62°–70° W and 16°–21° N. These databases, of fault sections, fault‐zone polygons, and geologic estimates of fault activity (fault‐slip rate and earthquake recurrence intervals) at specific sites, document updates to fault parameters used in prior seismic hazard models in PRVI. Fault sources were reviewed from published studies since 2003, which document substantial changes to the understanding of fault location, geometry, or activity. New fault section sources were added for features that meet the criteria of (1) length ≥7 km, (2) unequivocal evidence of recurrent tectonic Quaternary activity, and (3) documentation that is publicly available in a peer‐reviewed source. In addition, we revised several broad areal sources, such as the Mona and Anegada extensional zones. The 2003 model included three fault sections and two fault‐zone polygons (areal sources). These databases include 35 fault sections, 6 fault‐zone polygons, and 51 earthquake geology sites. To characterize fault activity rates, slip‐rate bins were assigned based on landscape expression and paleoseismic trench observations for faults without published slip‐rate sites. Additional fault sources were evaluated but not included in these databases due to a lack of published information about fault location, geometry, or recurrent Quaternary activity. The PRVI NSHM 2025 geologic input databases describe crustal faulting; the geometries and coupling of Puerto Rico subduction zone and Muertos Trough models are considered in a separate database. Updates to the fault sections, fault‐zone polygons, and earthquake geology databases can help inform the location and recurrence rate of damaging earthquakes in the PRVI NSHM implementation.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands

Landslide-channel feedbacks amplify channel widening during floods

Channel widening is a major hazard during floods, particularly in confined mountainous catchments. However, channel widening during floods is not well understood and not always explained by hydraulic variables alone. Floods in mountainous regions often coincide with landslides triggered by heavy rainfall, yet landslide-channel interactions during a flood event are not well known or documented. Here we demonstrate with an example from the Great Colorado Flood in 2013, a 1000 year precipitation event, how landslide-channel feedbacks can substantially amplify channel widening and flood risk. We use a combination of DEM differencing, field analysis, and multiphase flow modeling to document landslide-channel interaction during the flood event in which sediment delivered by landslides temporarily dammed the channel before failing and generating substantial channel widening. We propose that such landslide-flood interactions will become increasingly important to account for in flood hazard assessment as flooding and landsliding both increase with extreme rainfall under climate change.

Colorado

Suitability of ground-motion models for seismic hazard assessment in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

We perform linear mixed-effects analyses with a ground-motion dataset to evaluate how well ground-motion models (GMMs) fit active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab earthquakes in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Most of the GMMs reproduce the spatial variation in peak ground motions with earthquake magnitude and rupture distance but predict ground motions 0.3–1.0 natural log units (35%–270%) greater than observations. Two GMMs developed for Puerto Rico that are based on ground-motion records from mostly magnitude 4–5 earthquakes do not perform as well. We attribute the period-dependent overprediction in observed ground motions to differences between the observed site response and the linear site response in the GMMs. Consequently, we developed region-specific GMMs by adjusting the period-dependent linear site response coefficients and period-dependent constant coefficients to remove most of the bias between predicted ground motions and observations. For the analysis, we compile ground-motion records and process waveforms to build a dataset with 10,127 records at 72 stations from 849 magnitude 4.0–6.4 earthquakes between 1 January 2006 and 31 March 2024. The earthquakes include active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab events. We evaluate the GMMs using the time-averaged shear wave speed in the top 30 m ( ), which we compile from site surveys and proxy values computed from horizontal to vertical spectral ratios. Site terms exhibit strong consistency across GMMs and crustal and subduction earthquakes, indicating that the linear mixed-effects analysis successfully isolates the effects of local site response. The event terms show little spatial correlation and more substantial variability than in other regions, which we attribute to uncertainties in the earthquake magnitudes. This analysis guides the selection of the GMMs for the 2025 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands

Assessment of western Oregon debris-flow hazards in burned and unburned environments

In the steep and mountainous environment of western Oregon, debris flows pose a considerable threat to property, infrastructure and life. Wildfire is commonly known to increase the susceptibility of steep slopes to debris flows, but the extent of this process in the western Cascades is not well understood. The US Geological Survey (USGS) currently estimates postfire debris-flow likelihood and triggering rainfall thresholds using a model calibrated to a southern California inventory of debris flows generated by excess runoff within the first year after fire. Because of a lack of available data, this model has not been tested in western Oregon, or in locations where postfire debris flows initiate via other mechanisms (e.g., shallow landslides or in-channel failures). Using repeat field observations and aerial imagery, we developed two new debris-flow inventories within and adjacent to the perimeters of five 2020 wildfires in western Oregon: Archie Creek, Holiday Farm, Beachie Creek, Lionshead and Riverside. The first inventory focuses on postfire debris flows (2020–2022); the second focuses on debris flows prior to fires (1995–2020). Our inventories of prefire and postfire debris flows were used to document initiation mechanisms in Oregon's western Cascades and to evaluate the effects of wildfire. We found that wildfire changed the distribution of debris-flow initiation mechanisms in the western Cascades. After the wildfires, annual rates of runoff-generated debris flows increased by 22% and the number of shallow landslide-initiated debris flows decreased by 17% relative to before the wildfires. Despite this shift, shallow landsliding was the dominant debris-flow initiation mechanism in both unburned and burned environments. We found the performance of the current USGS debris-flow likelihood model was degraded relative to other previously tested locations across the intermountain western United States. Our results highlight the need for improved postfire hazard assessment in western Oregon based on regional model calibration that is tuned to the dominant debris-flow initiation mechanisms.

Oregon

Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation

As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area, the Engineering and Risk Project (ERP) of the Geologic Hazards Science Center conducts civil engineering research to extend natural hazards science to risk assessments. The ERP includes predominantly, but not exclusively, staff funded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. A major focus of the ERP is to deliver actionable information to decisionmakers that helps promote the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The report discusses briefly the ERP’s evolution and scope, its organization structure, describes key products and deliverables, their efforts to engage with external partners, and its strategy and vision in conducting range of engineering and risk research. The research topics outlined in this report, as developed by the ERP, may be used to facilitate project planning activities during the next 10 years and serve as a longer-term planning resource for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and Geologic Hazards Science Center.

Circular

Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows

Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall can initiate deadly and destructive debris flows after wildfire. Methods to estimate the conditions that can trigger debris flows exist and guidance to determine how often those thresholds will be exceeded under the present climate are available. However, the limited spatiotemporal resolution of climate models has hampered efforts to characterize how rainfall intensification driven by global warming may affect debris-flow hazards. We use novel, dynamically downscaled (3.75-km), convection-permitting simulations of short-duration (15-min) rainfall to evaluate threshold exceedance for late 21st-century climate scenarios in the American Southwest. We observe significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of exceedances for regions dominated by cool- and warm-season rainfall. We also observe an increased frequency of exceedance in regions where postfire debris flows have not been documented, and communities are unaccustomed to the hazard. Our findings can inform planning efforts to increase resiliency to debris flows under a changing climate.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah

Development of liquefaction-targeted design basis in U.S. seismic provisions

Seismic design criteria for new buildings in the United States have historically focused on life safety performance objectives through minimizing the potential for structural collapse. Development of design criteria to meet this performance objective has evolved over time, leading to the current, risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake (MCE R ) design basis. Corresponding MCE R seismic design loads incorporate the full range of probabilistic ground motion hazard information available from U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models, as well as a representation of the uncertainty in structural collapse capacity. Despite these considerable advances in structural design criteria, guidelines for geotechnical hazards such as liquefaction-induced damage, which continue to be based on uniform ground-shaking hazard (i.e., MCE ground motions), are not well-connected with risk-based, collapse prevention performance objectives. This study, undertaken as part of Building Seismic Safety Council efforts to update recommended seismic provisions through the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, presents probabilistic, liquefaction-targeted design objectives and corresponding ground motion parameters, with a focus on improving consistency in first-level screening criteria for liquefaction hazard assessment. This study identifies a potential maximum acceptable annualized probability of liquefaction triggering ( P L,max ) of 2.5% in 50 years, above which liquefaction consequences and potential mitigation measures would be considered. The P L,max -based design basis is calibrated to effective probabilistic liquefaction hazard levels obtained in practice using current MCE peak ground accelerations, and could be implemented via a new liquefaction-targeted maximum considered earthquake (MCE L ) peak ground acceleration ( PGA L ). The proposed PGA L is derived from probabilistic liquefaction hazard curves and includes uncertainties inherent to liquefaction hazard modeling. The potential design effects of the proposed PGA L are demonstrated via comparison with current MCE PGA levels, effects on first-level liquefaction screening analyses, and improvements in the consistency of P L,max levels across the United States, and for a wide range of site conditions.

conterminous United States

Structural evolution and slip rate variations through time of the Puente-Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles: Implications for seismic hazard and folding kinematics

Using seismic reflection profiles, historical well logging data, and luminescence and radiocarbon ages, we determine a Pleistocene-Holocene slip history for the central, Santa Fe Springs segment of the Puente Hills blind-thrust fault (PHT), a major seismogenic fault situated beneath the urbanized Los Angeles metropolitan region. We analyze the geometry of correlative stratigraphic units in the forelimb and backlimb of the overlying growth-fold, the Santa Fe Springs anticline, and determine the uplift of seven age-correlative markers. Uplift measurements are converted to thrust displacements on the underlying PHT using a structural method laid out by Don et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220048 ) that accounts for the geometry of the fault. These data indicate that deep thrust displacement on the PHT is partially consumed updip in the creation of a hanging-wall fault-bend fold, with forelimb growth strata recording <80% of the slip documented within the backlimb. Chronological data from growth strata yield age constraints for folding and faulting on the underlying PHT, providing a detailed incremental slip history derived from both the forelimb and backlimb folding for seven discrete growth horizons, spanning the past 1.4 million years. The resulting six incremental slip rates demonstrate that fault slip has varied through time from the middle Pleistocene to the Holocene. Moreover, these results reveal synchronous acceleration of both the central, Santa Fe Springs and western, Los Angeles segments of the fault system since late Pleistocene time (after 200 ka) and slip rates of greater than 2 mm/yr on the downdip, backlimb, fault-ramp below the anticline.

California

Methods to evaluate and improve the modeling of rupture directivity in assessment of seismic hazard

In recent years, there have been several advancements related to the modelling of near-source effects of earthquake rupture on strong ground shaking, leading to an improved characterization of ground motions and resulting seismic hazard. Some of these modifications have stemmed from physics-based numerical modelling of the earthquake rupture process, using physics-based dynamic rupture simulations. These contributions have led to a better understanding of how fault rupture characteristics, geometry, and the style of faulting can interact with the hypocenter-dependence on the path from source to site that may ultimately guide the development of seismic directivity models. Moving forward, the application of modern techniques can be used to incorporate these source characteristics and near-fault ground motion behavior that contribute to the azimuthally varying effects that result in rupture directivity. One example is the application of machine learning methods to support more automated integration of new predictor variables in model development and open more evaluation opportunities to access residuals. Here, we utilize several techniques to take advantage of the plethora of synthetic data and its ability to supplement preexisting trends observed in data. We showcase two examples of how models can be either developed, expanded upon, or constrained using artificial neural network model (ANNs). We evaluate the performance of the ANN with existing methods, comparing misfit, potential limitations, and ability to continue to improve upon these methods in the future. One approach uses a set of simulations with corresponding synthetic ground motions from the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) CyberShake study to develop a ground motion model adapted to incorporate seismic directivity information using an ANN. This large database (TBs) enables us to train the model to capture magnitude, period, and distance variations and how these parameters relate to amplification from hypocenters located along finite-faults. In some cases, there is reduced misfit from better representing source features that aren’t included in base ground motion models that neglect hypocenter location (e.g. azimuthal variation, source-to-site terms). Another ANN method uses a shallow-layered neural network model to better fit a hypocenter-independent model. This method adjusts the median and aleatory variability to account for the averaged impact of various hypocenter distributions to fit the underlying directivity adjustment model. This method serves as a template to apply to other directivity models, improving computational efficiency and more readily enabling integration in hazard codes.

California

Uranium analysis of single drops of natural waters using the fission-track technique

The fission-track technique has been applied to uranium analysis of natural waters using a single drop of water. Samples may be collected in the field by evaporating a drop of water on a detector, and samples may then be analyzed by returning the detector to the laboratory. A sample collecting kit has been assembled, which facilitates the designed sampling method. Some unique advantages of this technique are picogram sensitivity (10 -12 g) for uranium on single drops of water, maintenance of sample integrity during transport and storage, and the ability to discern whether the uranium is in solution or in the suspended material. Counting the tracks is the most time-consuming part of the analysis, but it can be reduced by using automatic counting systems. The analytical error is generally ± 10 percent over the entire range of concentrations.

Open-File Report

Diamond drilling at the Ma'milah Mine, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The Ma'millah gold mine is about 90 km southeast of At Ta'if at lat 21°03'N., long 41°18'E., in southwestern Saudi Arabia. The deposit, which was worked extensively by ancient miners, consists of several veins and massive lenses of quartz along a regional fault. The extensive ancient mine workings, large size of some quartz outcrops, and significant gold content of several samples indicated that subsurface exploration was warranted. Accordingly, two holes were drilled into the deposit during the interval December 1972 to February 1973. The drill findings were disappointing; the grade of vein material was found to be too low to be of economic interest and the quartz bodies were found to pinch out both along strike and downdip. The drilling program therefore was terminated. The deposit is not worth further exploration

Ma'milah Mine

Melt generation sources and conditions in the wake of a migrating slab window: Geochemistry and petrology of the million-year history of primitive volcanism at Clear Lake volcanic field, California

Clear Lake volcanic field (CLVF) is the northernmost and youngest (~2.2 Ma to 8 ka) of the volcanic centers distributed along the San Andreas transform fault in western California. The initial phase of CLVF volcanism (interval one) occurred between ~2.2 and 1.3 Ma and extends ~35 km southeast of Clear Lake, forming a semi-continuous upland plateau capped by lava flows, with isolated volcanic remnants on the periphery. This volcanism is broadly characterized by geochemically primitive compositions that reflect three source compositions and conditions of melt generation. (1) Partial melting of upwelling asthenospheric mantle lherzolite at moderate pressures (1.2–1.4 GPa) and temperatures (1297–1329 °C) produced high-CaO (9.8–11.3 wt %) basalts with high Al 2 O 3 (16.8–17.6 wt %), Mg#s (66–70), MgO (8–10 wt %), Ni (103–262 μg/g), and Cr (284–609 μg/g). These high-CaO basalts contain olivine (Fo 87–91 ) phenocrysts with Cr-spinel inclusions ± subordinate plagioclase and crop out only in the southern part of the CLVF. (2) Partial melting of depleted sub-continental lithospheric mantle harzburgite at variable pressures (0.7–1.5 GPa) and temperatures (1097–1299 °C) produced a compositional continuum of med-K 2 O, calc-alkaline, high-MgO basalts through high-MgO andesites with high Mg#s (67–77), MgO (8–14 wt %) and high Ni and Cr abundances (154–439 and 340–1124 μg/g, respectively). Mineral assemblages are olivine (Fo 88–93 ) with Cr-spinel inclusions ± subordinate clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene and plagioclase. Small (<2.5 cm) mantle harzburgite xenoliths and mantle olivine xenocrysts are also found in several of these samples. These high-MgO basalts through andesites represent the largest volume of primitive compositions and have erupted predominantly along the main, fault-controlled northwest-southeast trending axis of volcanism with peripheral outcrops to the north, west, and east. (3) Partial melting of the Gorda eclogite slab edge produced adakitic silicic slab melts with strong depletion in the heavy rare earth elements (Yb = 0.6 μg/g). Subsequent reaction of those melts with depleted ultramafic rocks during ascent imprinted the adakitic dacites with high Mg#s (65–78) and elevated Ni (117–210 μg/g) and Cr (191–283 μg/g). Phenocrysts of orthopyroxene (En 87–94 ) with spinel inclusions (Cr# = 80–88) and extremely Ni-rich (9483 μg/g) olivine cores (Fo 84–93 ) record those reactions. Small-volume outcrops of the adakites on the eastern periphery of the CLVF track the passing slab edge. The trio of melting sources recorded by early CLVF magmatism reflect the tectonically complex environment and the hot (1097–1329 °C), shallow (0.7–1.5 GPa) melting conditions for these primitive compositions and provide estimates of the heat delivered to the crust. Over time, this flux led to maturation of the CLVF magmatic system toward the more voluminous and silicic volcanism that characterizes the balance of its subsequent volcanic history and maintains the present-day anomalously high heat flow in the region. The current interval (interval four) of volcanic activity at CLVF is characterized by low-volume, fault-controlled eruptions of basaltic andesite and andesite suggestive of mantle magma and heat delivery to the crust, similar to interval one. This analogous activity provides motivation for the current study and begs the question of whether the system is undergoing thermal priming for renewed silicic volcanism.

California

The damability function: A probabilistic approach to regional landslide dam susceptibility analysis applied to the Oregon Coast Range, USA

Landslides can dam rivers and require rapid response to mitigate catastrophic outburst floods. Here, we present a workflow to map landslide dam formation susceptibility at a regional scale. We define a probabilistic function that combines river valley width and landslide volume to efficiently determine the likelihood of a landslide dam or “damability”. We combine damability values with landslide susceptibility to estimate landslide dam susceptibility. The valley width measurements are automated using a new elevation threshold-based algorithm. Landslide volume is represented as a statistical distribution from mapped landslides. We validate and apply our approach to the Oregon Coast Range, USA and find that 36 % of river stretches exceed a dam potential threshold; these are in river headwaters and steeper terrain, which in this case correlate with more resistant lithologies. We also estimate volumes of the potential dammed lakes and find that most rivers with high dam susceptibility are less likely to impound large lakes because they have low drainage areas. However, widespread susceptibility, and the potential impacts from exceptionally large landslides, suggest that this hazard should be considered in the Pacific Northwest. The damability function workflow can ingest new data and be applied more broadly to assess future landslide dam hazards.

Oregon

USGS—An Unparalleled Scientific Asset

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers information critical to powering our economy, managing our natural resources, and keeping Americans safe and healthy. 1 Mapping the Nation $21B Geologic maps save users an estimated 15% in annual costs: a value of between $14B and $21B. $25.6B in annual value to users of imagery from Landsat satellites, which were codeveloped by NASA and the USGS and operated through their lifespans by the USGS. $13.5B in annual benefits is generated by the USGS's 3D Elevation Program. Securing America’s Energy Independence 44% USGS-identified undiscovered geothermal energy is equal to 44% of current U.S. electricity generation. 29.4B barrels of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of gas in recoverable resources are available on U.S. public lands based on USGS assessments. Protecting Americans’ Health and Safety $424B in recent wildland fire damages highlight the need for USGS fire science, which supports efforts to protect communities and reduce risk. USGS earthquake, volcano, landslide, and coastal hazard monitoring and information save lives and minimize costs; for example, $2.8M can be saved because of USGS enhanced information about a Mauna Loa eruption. $4.5B is the estimated cost of annual flooding. Through a network of over 11,885 streamgages, the USGS supports public safety and enables forecasts, early warning systems, and management actions that protect lives and property. Supporting National Security $3.1B The USGS identified a $3.1B risk to the American economy if China restricts gallium imports. This is one example underscoring the importance of the USGS mapping critical minerals, investigating supply chains, and producing the Nation’s critical minerals list. Enhancing Our Lands and Waters $21B in estimated annual costs results from invasive species. The USGS’s invasive species research informs approaches used to reduce their effects on agriculture, water infrastructure, disease transmission, fisheries, and outdoor recreation. USGS innovations support early warnings for harmful algal blooms—over $2M in yearly benefits are provided to Kansas alone. $45B USGS science informs the management of big game (such as deer and elk). The big-game hunting industry contributes $45B to the U.S. economy. Fostering American Prosperity $4.1T Mineral commodities are necessary for the $4.1T in value added to the GDP by major industries that consume processed mineral materials and employ 1 million workers. Because of this, USGS data on mineral supply, demand, and trade are highly valued. 45,000 metric tons Rare earths power the growing technology economy, including cell phones, electric vehicles, and medical devices. For over 70 years, USGS work has supported the discovery of rare earth resources in California’s Mountain Pass area, which produced 45,000 metric tons of rare earth concentrates in 2024—over 11% of the global supply. Guarding American Food Security $70.2B USGS science informs early warning systems and management strategies to mitigate disease outbreaks in agriculture—critical research on highly pathogenic avian influenza, for example, helps safeguard the $70B value in poultry and egg production. $11.8B USGS groundwater tools are vital for agriculture; for example, in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 65% of farming relies on groundwater to support its $11.8B annual industry. 1 Values throughout are given in billions (B), millions (M), and trillions (T) of U.S. dollars. GDP is “Gross Domestic Product.” Percentages are shown as %.

General Information Product

An improved empirical model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume in the western United States

Reliable estimates of debris-flow volume can be used to help predict the magnitude of debris-flow hazards following wildfire in the western United States. In this study, we compiled and used a database of 227 postfire debris-flow volumes that were collected across the western United States to develop a multiple linear regression model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume. We explored 36 predictor variables related to rainfall, terrain, and fire characteristics, and selected the model with the combination of variables that yielded the most accurate predictions of debris-flow volume. We evaluated model performance against the entire volume database, as well as against four subsets of volume data from southern California, the Intermountain West, the Southwest, and regions with limited volume data, such as northern California and Washington. We also compared model performance against 3 existing postfire debris-flow volume models that were developed for use in southern California, the Intermountain West, and the Southwest. We demonstrate that the new volume model performs as well as the regional models in the regions for which they were developed and outperforms existing models when applied to volumes from data-limited regions in the western United States. These results indicate that the debris-flow volume model introduced in this study can be used to improve postfire hazard assessments across the western United States, especially outside of southern California.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, W

Hydrogeology of stratified drift in Farmington, Connecticut: Available data and future needs

The purpose of this report is twofold. The first is to update hydrogeologic information on the major stratified-drift deposits that underlie much of Farmington. The second is to outline data requirements for future ground-water evaluation and management. The scope of the report is limited to the stratified drift, as it is the only aquifer capable of sustaining large withdrawals for public or industrial supply. This aquifer is composed of interbedded layers of gravel, sand, silt and clay. Most of this material was deposited by glacial meltwaters, but locally the aquifer contains some unconsolidated deposits of nonglacial origin. The most extensive stratified-drift deposits are in the valleys of the Farmington and Pequabuck Rivers.(See plate B.) A few small areas of stratified drift near East Farmington Heights and Oakland Gardens are not discussed in this report as their potential for large-scale development is slight.

Connecticut

Estimating the hypothetical endowment of critical minerals and other commodities in porphyry copper mine waste in the Four Corners states, USA

Society is fundamentally dependent upon commodities that are used in end-use products for the aerospace, defense, energy, telecommunication, and transportation sectors, resulting in centuries of mining to supply these commodities and materials. Waste from these mining operations can remain on the landscape indefinitely, but there is a lack of national understanding of the distribution and scale of such waste features. The renewable energy transition will continue to increase demand for critical minerals and will result in increasing volumes of mine waste on the Earth’s surface. Reprocessing mine waste can reduce environmental risks and recover needed commodities to match growing demand for societal growth. Therefore, understanding the approximate abundance of commodities that may be available for recovery within mine waste features can be an important piece of domestic critical mineral supply.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah