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Towards a global terrestrial species monitoring program

Introduction: The Convention for Biological Diversity’s (CBD) Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 envisions that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people.” Although 193 parties have adopted these goals, there is little infrastructure in place to monitor global biodiversity trends. Recent international conservation policy requires such data to be up-to-date, reliable, comparable among sites, relevant, and understandable; as is becoming obvious from the work plan adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES: www.ipbes.net/; http://tinyurl.com/ohdnknq). In order to meet the five strategic goals of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 and its 20 accompanying Aichi Targets for 2020 (www.cbd.int/sp/targets/), advances need to be made in coordinating large-scale biodiversity monitoring and linking these with environmental data to develop a comprehensive Global Observation Network, as is the main idea behind GEOSS the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (Christian 2005)...Here we identify ten requirements important for the successful implementation of a global biodiversity monitoring network under the flag of GEO BON and especially a global terrestrial species monitoring program.

Journal for Nature Conservation

Modeling resource selection of bobcats (Lynx rufus) and vertebrate species distributions in Orange County, southern California

For nature reserves in urban settings, wildlife and wildlife habitats may be affected by recreational activities and intensive, adjacent development. Sustaining biodiversity in such reserves is a challenge for land and natural resource managers, but identification of core areas and key resources for wildlife species may help in planning for current and emerging threats. To help identify core areas and resources, we conducted spatial analyses and predictive modeling of vertebrate distributions for a network of nature reserves in densely populated Orange County, California. We primarily focused on bobcats ( Lynx rufus ), a species with a strong association with natural habitat. Bobcat space use has been correlated with broad, simple land-use categories, but relatively little is known about the influence of greater landscape complexity on habitat suitability for bobcats. To examine habitat selection by bobcats, we developed spatial data layers representing environmental factors that might influence this species, and we used previously collected Global Positioning System tracking data for 30 male and 21 female bobcats to indicate bobcat response to complex landscape factors. We examined these inputs using Resource Selection Function (RSF) modeling and developed spatially explicit models of the probability of bobcat use (selection or avoidance) of landscape characteristics. RSF models highlighted the general importance of reserve habitat for bobcats, but suggested that female bobcats were more dependent that male bobcats on habitat within designated reserves. Male bobcats, which range more widely than female bobcats, were associated with undeveloped areas both within and outside reserves. Small areas were present outside reserves that seemed to provide additional suitable habitat or movement areas for bobcats, potentially through restoration, connectivity, or reduced edge effects. Although bobcat RSFs suggested areas of high value to this species and potentially other species, taxa can differ greatly in their resource-selection and spatial requirements. Thus, for several species of reptiles, amphibians, and birds, we adapted species distribution models based on occurrence data to examine the response of other vertebrates to the landscape. To identify potential High-Value Areas (HVAs) for single or multiple species, we then developed a step-wise filtering process that can be applied to a series of spatial data layers. We provide examples of alternative decision models for HVAs that capture different elements of biodiversity and a range of management considerations. As landscape and management challenges change, these spatial layers and decision rules can be adjusted based on new information. Our approach thus establishes a general framework for identifying high-value habitat that can be used for current management decisions and refined in the future, depending on management interests and goals and the availability of suitable quality data or adequate surrogate information.

California

Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested that a long-term solution will require a significant reassessment of objectives to better reflect the comprehensive values of refuges to society. We discuss some future considerations to integrate these two problems into a single framework by developing novel optimization approaches for dynamic problems that account for uncertainty in future conditions.

Ecology and Society

Water-quality and ancillary data collected from the Arroyo Colorado near Rio Hondo, Texas, 2006

The Arroyo Colorado is in the lower Rio Grande Valley of southern Texas and extends from near Mission, Texas, eastward to the Laguna Madre estuarine and coastal marine system, which separates Padre Island from the Texas mainland. Streamflow in the Arroyo Colorado primarily is sustained by effluent from municipal wastewater-treatment plants along the stream banks. Since 1986, the tidal segment of the Arroyo Colorado from the port of Harlingen to the Laguna Madre has been designated by the State of Texas as an impaired water body because of low dissolved oxygen concentrations. Efforts to develop predictive water-quality models for the tidal segment of the Arroyo Colorado have been hampered by a lack of physical, biological, and biochemical data. Specifically, data on primary algal productivity, nutrient cycling, sediment deposition rates, and the relations between these processes and dissolved oxygen dynamics in the stream have been inadequate to support water-quality modeling efforts. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, did a study in 2006 to collect data associated with primary algal productivity, nutrient cycling, and dissolved oxygen dynamics in the tidal segment (2201) of the Arroyo Colorado near Rio Hondo. Specific objectives of the study were to (1) characterize water quality by measuring basic properties; (2) characterize the concentrations of carbon and nutrients, biochemical oxygen demand, total organic carbon, total suspended solids, and volatile suspended solids; (3) measure the seasonal differences of nutrient-dependent algal growth and algal production in the water column; (4) measure oxygen respiration or production rates; and (5) measure rates of sediment deposition.

Data Series

The application of metacommunity theory to the management of riverine ecosystems

River managers strive to use the best available science to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function. To achieve this goal requires consideration of processes at different scales. Metacommunity theory describes how multiple species from different communities potentially interact with local-scale environmental drivers to influence population dynamics and community structure. However, this body of knowledge has only rarely been used to inform management practices for river ecosystems. In this article, we present a conceptual model outlining how the metacommunity processes of local niche sorting and dispersal can influence the outcomes of management interventions and provide a series of specific recommendations for applying these ideas as well as research needs. In all cases, we identify situations where traditional approaches to riverine management could be enhanced by incorporating an understanding of metacommunity dynamics. A common theme is developing guidelines for assessing the metacommunity context of a site or region, evaluating how that context may affect the desired outcome, and incorporating that understanding into the planning process and methods used. To maximize the effectiveness of management activities, scientists, and resource managers should update the toolbox of approaches to riverine management to reflect theoretical advances in metacommunity ecology.

WIREs Water

Predicting the resilience and recovery of aquatic systems: a framework for model evolution within environmental observatories

Maintaining the health of aquatic systems is an essential component of sustainable catchmentmanagement, however, degradation of water quality and aquatic habitat continues to challenge scientistsand policy-makers. To support management and restoration efforts aquatic system models are requiredthat are able to capture the often complex trajectories that these systems display in response to multiplestressors. This paper explores the abilities and limitations of current model approaches in meeting this chal-lenge, and outlines a strategy based on integration of flexible model libraries and data from observationnetworks, within a learning framework, as a means to improve the accuracy and scope of model predictions.The framework is comprised of a data assimilation component that utilizes diverse data streams from sensornetworks, and a second component whereby model structural evolution can occur once the model isassessed against theoretically relevant metrics of system function. Given the scale and transdisciplinarynature of the prediction challenge, network science initiatives are identified as a means to develop and inte-grate diverse model libraries and workflows, and to obtain consensus on diagnostic approaches to modelassessment that can guide model adaptation. We outline how such a framework can help us explore thetheory of how aquatic systems respond to change by bridging bottom-up and top-down lines of enquiry,and, in doing so, also advance the role of prediction in aquatic ecosystem management.

Water Resources Research

Brackish groundwater and its potential to augment freshwater supplies

Secure, reliable, and sustainable water resources are fundamental to the Nation’s food production, energy independence, and ecological and human health and well-being. Indications are that at any given time, water resources are under stress in selected parts of the country. The large-scale development of groundwater resources has caused declines in the amount of groundwater in storage and declines in discharges to surface water bodies (Reilly and others, 2008). Water supply in some regions, particularly in arid and semiarid regions, is not adequate to meet demand, and severe drought intensifies the stresses affecting water resources (National Drought Mitigation Center, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, 2015). If these drought conditions continue, water shortages could adversely affect the human condition and threaten environmental flows necessary to maintain ecosystem health. In support of the national census of water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed the national brackish groundwater assessment to provide updated information about brackish groundwater as a potential resource to augment or replace freshwater supplies (Stanton and others, 2017). Study objectives were to consolidate available data into a comprehensive database of brackish groundwater resources in the United States and to produce a summary report highlighting the distribution, physical and chemical characteristics, and use of brackish groundwater resources. This assessment was authorized by section 9507 of the Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009 (42 U.S.C. 10367), passed by Congress in March 2009. Before this assessment, the last national brackish groundwater compilation was completed in the mid-1960s (Feth, 1965). Since that time, substantially more hydrologic and geochemical data have been collected and now can be used to improve the understanding of the Nation’s brackish groundwater resources.

Fact Sheet

Hydrology and glacier-lake-outburst floods (1987-2004) and water quality (1998-2003) of the Taku River near Juneau, Alaska

The Taku River Basin originates in British Columbia, Canada, and drains an area of 6,600 square miles at the U.S. Geological Survey's Taku River gaging station. Several mines operated within the basin prior to 1957, and mineral exploration has resumed signaling potential for future mining developments. The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Douglas Indian Association, Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency conducted a water-quality and flood-hydrology study of the Taku River. Water-quality sampling of the Taku River from 1998 through 2003 established a baseline for assessing potential effects of future mining operations on water quality. The annual mean discharge of the Taku River is 13,700 cubic feet per second. The monthly mean discharge ranges from a minimum of 1,940 cubic feet per second in February to a maximum of 34,400 cubic feet per second in June. Nearly 90 percent of the annual discharge is from May through November. The highest spring discharges are sourced primarily from snowmelt and moderate discharges are sustained throughout the summer by glacial meltwaters. An ice cover usually forms over the Taku River in December persisting through the winter into March and occasionally into April. Glacier-lake-outburst floods originating from two glacier-dammed lakes along the margin of the Tulsequah Glacier in British Columbia, Canada, are the source of the greatest peak discharges on the Taku River. The largest flood during the period of record was 128,000 cubic feet per second on June 25, 2004, resulting from an outburst of Lake No Lake. Lake No Lake is the larger of the two lakes. The outburst-flood contribution to peak discharge was 80,000 cubic feet per second. The volume discharged from Lake No Lake is relatively consistent indicating drainage may be triggered when the lake reaches a critical stage. This suggests prediction of the timing of these outburst floods might be possible if lake-stage data were available. Further increases in the volume of Lake No Lake are unlikely as all tributary glaciers have retreated out of the lake basin. Decreasing outburst-flood volumes from Tulsequah Lake suggests a continued decline in the volume of this lake. Physical and chemical parameters and concentrations of basic water-quality constituents indicate good water quality. Samples collected at the Taku River gaging station contained low concentrations of trace elements in the dissolved phase. Trace elements sampled were within acceptable limits when compared with the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation aquatic-life criteria for fresh waters. The highest concentrations of total trace elements sampled were collected during glacial-outburst floods and likely are associated with suspended sediments. Total trace-element concentrations generally increase with increasing water discharge, although a high correlation for all constituents sampled does not always exist.

Alaska

Operational considerations for implementing regional sediment management plans in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Development of a comprehensive and stakeholder-driven Regional Sediment Management plan can provide the basis for long-term sustainable resource use and protection. This paper highlights three operational components that can positively influence sediment management at a regional scale, including (1) integration of an operational sediment budget, (2) development of a monitoring and adaptive management plan, and (3) development of a regional sediment availability and allocation program. These components seek to incorporate science and adaptive management through implementation of an organized and well-documented decision making process. They represent a coordinated framework that could serve as a guide for unifying financial investments in regional sediment management plans. Collectively, they establish an integrated process for addressing uncertainties about future system change in light of shrinking federal and state budgets, competing demands for sediment resources within riverine and marine waters, and policy considerations related to sediment/water use (e.g., navigation and commerce versus environmental management).

Conference Paper

Growth, movement, and survival of precocial shorebird chicks are constrained by their environment.

Young animals are often less mobile than adults, while also having high energetic demands. They may therefore be more vulnerable to local-scale changes in environmental conditions. In particular, when 1 sex must grow more rapidly than the other to achieve a larger adult size, that sex may experience especially dramatic reductions in growth and survival in the face of suboptimal environmental conditions. In order to investigate the flexibility of individuals in response to local-scale environmental variation during development, we studied the sex-specific growth, movement, and survival of Hudsonian Godwit ( Limosa haemastica ) chicks—a sexually dimorphic, precocial shorebird that breeds in the sub-Arctic and exhibits a male-skewed adult sex ratio. We found that female chicks—which must grow to a larger adult size—reached their maximum growth rates at a later age, but had similar growth rates to males before that and survived equally well to 21 days. We also found that, irrespective of sex, chicks had reduced movement rates when they were young and/or temperatures were cold, and only weakly increased their movement rates when invertebrate abundances remained low across an entire week. Early in life, godwit chicks may therefore be constrained from increasing their foraging efforts by local environmental conditions, forcing females to sustain higher growth rates late in the season past the local resource peak. Such sex-specific vulnerabilities could lead to lower early-life survival and, in turn, skewed adult sex ratios, which have important implications for population dynamics and persistence.

Behavioral Ecology

Glaciological and marine geological controls on terminus dynamics of Hubbard Glacier, southeast Alaska

Hubbard Glacier, located in southeast Alaska, is the world's largest non-polar tidewater glacier. It has been steadily advancing since it was first mapped in 1895; occasionally, the advance creates an ice or sediment dam that blocks a tributary fjord (Russell Fiord). The sustained advance raises the probability of long-term closure in the near-future, which will strongly impact the ecosystem of Russell Fiord and the nearby community of Yakutat. Here, we examine a 43-year record of flow speeds and terminus position to understand the large-scale dynamics of Hubbard Glacier. Our long-term record shows that the rate of terminus advance has increased slightly since 1895, with the exception of a slowed advance between approximately 1972 and 1984. The short-lived closure events in 1986 and 2002 were not initiated by perturbations in ice velocity or environmental forcings, but were likely due to fluctuations in sedimentation patterns at the terminus. This study points to the significance of a coupled system where short-term velocity fluctuations and morainal shoal development control tidewater glacier terminus position.

Alaska

A biological condition gradient for coral reefs in the US Caribbean Territories: Part I. Coral narrative rules

As coral reef condition and sustainability continue to decline worldwide, losses of critical habitat and their ecosystem services have generated an urgency to understand and communicate reef response to management actions, environmental contamination, and natural disasters. Increasingly, coral reef protection and restoration programs emphasize the need for robust assessment tools for protecting high-quality waters and establishing conservation goals. Of equal importance is the need to communicate assessment results to stakeholders, beneficiaries, and the public so that environmental consequences of decisions are understood. The Biological Condition (BCG) model provides a structure to evaluate the condition of a coral reef in increments of change along a gradient of human disturbance. Communication of incremental change, regardless of direction, is important for decision makers and the public to better understand what is gained or lost depending on what actions are taken. We developed a narrative (qualitative) Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) from the consensus of a diverse expert panel to provide a framework for coral reefs in US Caribbean Territories. The model uses narrative descriptions of biological attributes for benthic organisms to evaluate reefs relative to undisturbed or minimally disturbed conditions. Using expert elicitation, narrative decision rules were proposed and deliberated to discriminate among six levels of change along a gradient of increasing anthropogenic stress. Narrative rules for each of the BCG levels are presented to facilitate the evaluation of benthic communities in coral reefs and provide specific narrative features to detect changes in coral reef condition and biological integrity. The BCG model can be used in the absence of numeric, or quantitative metrics, to evaluate actions that may encroach on coral reef ecosystems, manage endangered species habitat, and develop and implement management plans for marine protected areas, watersheds, and coastal zones. The narrative BCG model is a defensible model and communication tool that translates scientific results so the nontechnical person can understand and support both regulatory and non-regulatory water quality and natural resource programs.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Science of the Total Environment

Why bother about wildlife disease?

In most developed countries, the maintenance of the numbers of wildlife 1 is vested in the natural resource agencies of those countries. During earlier times, game species were the primary focus of natural resource agencies 2,3 however, current wildlife conservation continues to transition towards a more holistic focus on biodiversity 4 and environmental health 5,6 . Nevertheless, that transition lags behind in addressing wildlife disease in “…the struggle for existence between different forms of life…”. 7 Thus, the primary objective of this presentation is to provide a pragmatic assessment of wildlife disease that is irrespective of one’s orientation towards wildlife conservation. A secondary objective is to highlight the changing role of disease over time as a wildlife conservation factor. That transition is relevant to the insights provided for current and future efforts focused on sustaining global biodiversity and desired levels of wildlife populations in nature.

Circular

Toward improved decision-support tools for Delta Smelt management actions

The Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program (CSAMP) has endorsed a goal of reversing the recent downward trajectory of the Delta Smelt population within 5-10 generations, with the long-term aim of establishing a self-sustaining population. An ambitious agenda of management actions is planned, and more management actions are being considered. This White Paper furthers one of the recommendations in the 2019 Delta Smelt Science Plan – the need to predict the potential ecological effects of taking a management action. Existing statistical models can be highly informative in assessing the response of Delta Smelt to changing system conditions and management actions. However, management actions can shift or alter conditions in ways that models based on analysis of historical data may not be able to represent, and short-term or localized effects may be missed with models designed to assess effects at the population level. Decision support tools (DSTs) are computer-based tools developed to assist decision-making, often combining computationally intensive analysis and spatial mapping of environmental relationships. DSTs can be used in planning processes that evaluate an array of actions, such as in Structured Decision Making (SDM), where DSTs are needed to compare among alternatives. DSTs can also be used to explore the potential effects of different approaches to implementing management actions. The goal of this White Paper is to identify plausible options for DSTs that could be developed for future use to evaluate management actions that seek to either reverse the decline of Delta Smelt or minimize or mitigate the effects of other water management actions. Different types of management actions lead to different needs for DSTs. This White Paper was developed using three types of actions currently being considered to enhance the Delta Smelt population: Supplementation with Hatchery Fish, Summer-Fall Habitat, and Food Enhancement actions. These three management actions target different parts of the estuary and different processes, with a variety of possible metrics to gauge performance. Three DSTs are proposed that collectively address management questions related to the management actions considered, with each requiring a slightly different set of processes to be included and producing an array of outputs at varying spatial and temporal scales: DST 1. Modeling Fish Movement, Survival, and Reproduction Across Their Range. This DST can address management questions that require information about Delta Smelt spatial distribution and movement. • DST 1 could be used to compare conditions with and without management actions in place, how the management action performs among different types of water years (with varied flow and associated abiotic conditions), and to assess relative change with different variations and strategies of the management actions. • DST 2. Changes in Habitat Conditions and Delta Smelt Response. This DST is intended to evaluate combinations of conditions that are considered to provide suitable habitat for Delta Smelt, and Delta Smelt response. Delta Smelt habitat is generally described as open water with low salinity (0 to 6), turbidity of at least 12 NTU, suitable temperature conditions, and sufficient food availability to support growth. • DST 3. Regional Effects of Food Subsidy. This DSTs seeks to evaluate effectiveness of food enhancement actions by providing information on responses of the immediate targets of the action (i.e., phytoplankton or zooplankton) and tracing those to projected growth responses of Delta Smelt. There is not a single DST that adequately addresses management questions relevant to all management actions, although there is some overlap in the management questions each of the three DSTs can address. For each of the DSTs a substantial foundation of models and approaches already exists and modeling has already been applied to several of the management actions described. However, a number of outstanding issues remain for further development of the proposed DSTs. These are summarized in this White Paper together with potential approaches that could be applied or tested. Some components for the DSTs are already available and thus development could be relatively easy. However, for several of the topics identified there are gaps in knowledge that currently limit formulation of model structure and process representations. This presents challenges to readily incorporate some needed mechanisms into the models. Eleven next steps, aligned with relevant DSTs, are outlined. The next steps vary in their complexity or technical ‘lift’ required. Many build on existing work, or methods and approaches that have already been developed or are underway, while others require additional thinking to establish a viable approach. Some interim utility for decisions could be gained during initial development of the DSTs with further features added over time. Development of a DST requires engagement of both managers and scientists. Identifying the outputs and resolution needed for management purposes early in development of any DST is essential for effective pursuit of next steps and suitable approaches to address challenges. Dialog between managers and technical experts also informs what process-based simulation can do, and what tradeoffs are acceptable to meet a given purpose. To further develop the DSTs outlined here for application in the estuary requires: - Engagement of a committed group of technical experts with appropriate expertise. - The development of a coordinated workplan including appropriate project management and tracking. - Dialog between potential users (i.e., managers and policy makers) and technical experts. - Resources to pursue DST development including personnel and computational resources. This White Paper demonstrates the potential for moving toward DSTs for a variety of management actions in support of Delta Smelt that include mechanistic representations of physical and biological processes. Through focused effort from technical experts, managers and policy makers, DSTs can be developed to provide quantitative predictions of management effects on the ecosystem, targeting the changes the management actions seek to achieve, how these effects compare to ambient conditions, and how the effects vary among water year types or with timing and location of actions. Importantly, solid foundations exist which can be leveraged, refined, and built upon to specifically inform current and future management decisions.

White Paper

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

Arizona

U.S. Geological Survey energy and minerals science strategy

The economy, national security, and standard of living of the United States depend heavily on adequate and reliable supplies of energy and mineral resources. Based on current population and consumption trends, the Nation's use of energy and minerals can be expected to grow, driving the demand for ever broader scientific understanding of resource formation, location, and availability. In addition, the increasing importance of environmental stewardship, human health, and sustainable growth place further emphasis on energy and mineral resources research and understanding. Collectively, these trends in resource demand and the interconnectedness among resources will lead to new challenges and, in turn, require cutting-edge science for the next generation of societal decisions. The contributions of the U.S. Geological Survey to energy and minerals research are well established. Based on five interrelated goals, this plan establishes a comprehensive science strategy. It provides a structure that identifies the most critical aspects of energy and mineral resources for the coming decade. * Goal 1. - Understand fundamental Earth processes that form energy and mineral resources. * Goal 2. - Understand the environmental behavior of energy and mineral resources and their waste products. * Goal 3. - Provide inventories and assessments of energy and mineral resources. * Goal 4. - Understand the effects of energy and mineral development on natural resources. * Goal 5. - Understand the availability and reliability of energy and mineral resource supplies. Within each goal, multiple, scalable actions are identified. The level of specificity and complexity of these actions varies, consistent with the reality that even a modest refocus can yield large payoffs in the near term whereas more ambitious plans may take years to reach fruition. As such, prioritization of actions is largely dependent on policy direction, available resources, and the sequencing of prerequisite steps that will lead up to the most visionary directions. The science strategy stresses early planning and places an emphasis on interdisciplinary collaboration and leveraging of expertise across the U.S. Geological Survey.

Open-File Report

Ground-water availability in the United States

Ground water is among the Nation's most important natural resources. It provides half our drinking water and is essential to the vitality of agriculture and industry, as well as to the health of rivers, wetlands, and estuaries throughout the country. Large-scale development of ground-water resources with accompanying declines in ground-water levels and other effects of pumping has led to concerns about the future availability of ground water to meet domestic, agricultural, industrial, and environmental needs. The challenges in determining ground-water availability are many. This report examines what is known about the Nation's ground-water availability and outlines a program of study by the U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Resources Program to improve our understanding of ground-water availability in major aquifers across the Nation. The approach is designed to provide useful regional information for State and local agencies who manage ground-water resources, while providing the building blocks for a national assessment. The report is written for a wide audience interested or involved in the management, protection, and sustainable use of the Nation's water resources.

Circular