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USGS2026

Widespread landslide activity in an extreme wet season and implications for regional sediment management, eastern San Francisco Bay area, California

Watershed sediment production is expected to increase in a warmer future with more extreme rain, with cascading effects throughout drainage and sediment-transport networks. This study investigated landscape-scale sediment movement in the eastern San Francisco Bay area, California, USA, during the extreme 2016–2017 wet season that brought major rainfall, landslides, and flooding. Mapping 8,928 landslides across a 1,050-km 2 study area revealed new sediment yield of 510–956 t/km 2 , equivalent to denudation of 193–361 mm/ky. These results correspond closely to long-term denudation rates in the northern and central California Coast Ranges, indicating that mass wasting in very wet years dominates long-term sediment mobilization. However, due to long residence times in drainage networks, the 2017 landslides contributed at most ∼1%–2% of the estimated locally derived fluvial sediment transport to San Francisco Bay. Although the amount of sediment mobilized did not threaten municipal water supplies, small rangeland impoundments in this mixed-use landscape lost storage capacity to new sedimentation. Considering regional sediment supply and demand, even the exceptionally large sediment delivery in an extreme wet year cannot meet the need for sediment to accrete tidal wetlands in the bay. To keep pace with rising sea levels, this abnormally high terrestrial sediment input would need to occur in 50 of the next 75 years, an unlikely occurrence due to the prevalence of recent drought years. Shoreline protection and restoration in the bay would need additional sources of sediment, such as through management of dredged sediment through beneficial-reuse programs.

California↗
USGS2026

Patterns and drivers of cliff erosion in Big Sur, California, USA using repeat photogrammetry, 2017–2023

Seacliff erosion in steep terrain poses major risks to transportation and critical infrastructure. In Big Sur, California, USA, seacliff erosion threatens the sustainability of the central coast stretch of California State Route 1, a transportation corridor that is critical to the region's economy. Published cliff retreat rates for the region range from 1 to 40 cm yr −1 , highlighting that high-resolution, process-based studies could enhance understanding of the causes of spatial and temporal variability. We quantified cliff erosion and investigated its drivers along ∼13 km of the Big Sur coastline at week–month timescales during the late fall to early spring wet seasons between January 2017 and June 2023 by analyzing 3D point clouds developed from aerial imagery using four-dimensional structure-from-motion (4D SfM) photogrammetry techniques. We calculated cliff face retreat rates of 2.23 ± 3.06 cm yr −1 (mean ±1 σ ), an order of magnitude lower than long-term estimated rates for the region (which included large deep-seated landslides), but in line with short-term rates reported across California. Change detection imagery comparison, cliff profiles through time, and statistical analysis reveal a cyclical cliff evolution process in which erosion by wave action at the cliff base destabilizes the cliff and primes it for subsequent failure during precipitation events. Although more erosion by volume could be attributed to precipitation-induced increases in soil moisture (784 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ) compared with erosion attributed to wave power (282 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ), our observations underscore the coupled nature of these processes in driving cliff evolution, consistent with established theory and observations.

California↗
USGS2025

To heal or not to heal?: 2. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes in the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma aftershock sequence is consistent with laboratory healing rates

The timing and failure conditions of an earthquake are governed by the interplay between fault reloading and restrengthening. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes can give observational estimates of fault healing rates; however, it is difficult to link these observed healing rates to laboratory studies of frictional healing in part because of uncertainty in lithology. Here, we study the 2011 Prague earthquake sequence, which includes repeating earthquakes in the Arbuckle group and the granitic basement, and compare them to laboratory experiments on samples of the Arbuckle and Troy granite (representative of the basement rock) (Okamoto et al., 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030573 ). We find three spatially distinct groups of repeating earthquakes with different moment-recurrence behavior: (a) constant moment-recurrence time in the Arbuckle group, (b) scattered moment-recurrence time at the intersection of the foreshock-mainshock fault in the granitic basement, and (c) moment-predictable behavior outside of the foreshock-mainshock fault intersection also in the granitic basement. Our observation of stagnant healing for repeating sequences in the Arbuckle group is consistent with laboratory observations of low healing rates for moderately high pore fluid pressures in Arbuckle samples. For the moment-predictable group, the source radius that is required in order to match healing rates is consistent with source radius estimations when taking into account reasonable attenuation of the P- pulse width. Overall, we observe diverse healing behaviors in the seismic families that are consistent with laboratory healing rates, providing seismic evidence that contact-scale frictional mechanisms are relevant to large-scale earthquake dynamics.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2025

New paleomagnetic constraints on the eruption timing, stratigraphy, and post-emplacement deformation of the Picture Gorge Basalt within the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Picture Gorge Basalt (PGB) is part of the Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The PGB, which outcrops in eastern Oregon, is considered coincident in time with the voluminous Grande Ronde Basalt. New radiometric ages have expanded the age‐range of the PGB, suggesting it began erupting prior to the Steens Basalt to its south and continued until after cessation of the Grande Ronde Basalt eruptions, an interval of 1.5 Ma. However, the existing paleomagnetism of the PGB implies this eruption timeline is an overestimate. To reconcile the radiometric and paleomagnetic timescales for the PGB, we conducted a paleomagnetic study on sections of the PGB to construct a detailed, high‐quality magnetostratigraphy. Our data indicate the stratigraphically lowest lava flows in the PGB are of reversed polarity, revealing a new paleomagnetic transition with the PGB and a reversed (R)–normal (N)–reversed (R) sequence. This suggests one of two timeline possibilities for PGB volcanism: (a) eruptions began and during through CRBG polarity chrons R0–N0–R1, penecontemporaneous with Steens Basalt, or (b) eruptions began and persisted during CRBG polarity chrons R1–N1–R2. Our work supports a longer interval of PGB volcanism than was suggested by previous paleomagnetic data but is at odds with the suggestion that PGB eruptions lasted through the entire main CRBG. We favor a scenario wherein PGB eruptions begin with R0 and continue into the R1 paleomagnetic interval. The paleomagnetic results also record a ∼18° vertical‐axis rotation of east‐central Oregon after ∼16 Ma with respect to stable North America.

Oregon↗
USGS2026

Cajon Pass and the southern San Andreas Fault System: Earthquake cycle stress accumulation and present-day loading

With over a century since the last major rupture affecting the wider Los Angeles region, tectonic stress has steadily built along the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems, raising concerns of an imminent large earthquake. Cajon Pass, located at the junction of these faults, represents a critical site for potential through-going ruptures in Southern California. We constructed new 4D earthquake cycle simulations using a 1000-year paleoseismic rupture history of the San Andreas Fault System (SAFS) to assess spatial and temporal variations in stress. A semi-analytic Fourier transform model was used to compute stress from 3D dislocations in an elastic plate overlying a Maxwell viscoelastic half-space, assuming a complete coseismic reset of resolved shear stress on ruptured elements. Results show highest stress accumulation north of Cajon Pass (∼1.8 MPa/100 years) due to greater slip rates, and lower rates south of Cajon Pass (∼1.0–1.5 MPa/100 years). By 2025, Coulomb stress is estimated at 2.8 MPa on the Mojave South (MOS) segment, 1.8 MPa on the North San Bernardino (NSB1) segment and 3.6 MPa on the San Jacinto Bernardino (SJB) segment. Segments accumulate stresses with characteristic ranges of pre-event stress interpreted as failure thresholds: 1.2–2.7 MPa for MOS, 0.4–1.6 MPa for NSB1, and 1.2–2.9 MPa for SJB. When the stress disparity between segments SJB and MOS narrows, the faults appear to rupture jointly, suggesting that stress levels may control how Cajon Pass acts as an earthquake gate. These results may inform seismic hazard assessments by linking stress evolution to fault interactions.

California↗
USGS2025

Waning greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. Federal lease coal production by the mid-21st century

This study presents estimates of future years (2024–2051) United States Federal lease coal production and the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the combustion, transport, and mining of that fuel. Results from the coal production estimate indicate a decline in production from Federal leases; with known production of 240 million short tons (mtn) in 2023 and a projected decline to 34.0 mtn by 2051, which represents a reduction to 14.2% of the 2023 value. In parallel with this projection, total GHG emissions are estimated to decrease from 402.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO 2 eq.) in 2024 to 55.0 MMT CO 2 eq. in 2051, a decline to 13.7% of 2024 emissions estimates. The reductions in coal production and emissions are mainly the result of planned coal combustion power plant closures, with major projected closures in 2037 and 2048. However, GHG emissions estimates for future years can be uncertain as they rely heavily on coal production estimates from operators' public business plans and other publicly available resources. Forward looking plans of this type are subject to significant changes if economic and political factors deviate from current information. Results suggest that average GHG emissions over the time series breakout to 95% end point combustion, 3.7% transportation combustion emissions, and 1.3% fugitive emissions, although there is uncertainty associated with these figures. Uncertainty stemming from production projections, sector distributions, and emissions factors on the future emissions estimates increases with time, ranging from −28% to +48% within the 2024–2051 timeframe.

Alabama, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, Wy↗
USGS2026

Structural evolution and slip rate variations through time of the Puente-Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles: Implications for seismic hazard and folding kinematics

Using seismic reflection profiles, historical well logging data, and luminescence and radiocarbon ages, we determine a Pleistocene-Holocene slip history for the central, Santa Fe Springs segment of the Puente Hills blind-thrust fault (PHT), a major seismogenic fault situated beneath the urbanized Los Angeles metropolitan region. We analyze the geometry of correlative stratigraphic units in the forelimb and backlimb of the overlying growth-fold, the Santa Fe Springs anticline, and determine the uplift of seven age-correlative markers. Uplift measurements are converted to thrust displacements on the underlying PHT using a structural method laid out by Don et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220048 ) that accounts for the geometry of the fault. These data indicate that deep thrust displacement on the PHT is partially consumed updip in the creation of a hanging-wall fault-bend fold, with forelimb growth strata recording <80% of the slip documented within the backlimb. Chronological data from growth strata yield age constraints for folding and faulting on the underlying PHT, providing a detailed incremental slip history derived from both the forelimb and backlimb folding for seven discrete growth horizons, spanning the past 1.4 million years. The resulting six incremental slip rates demonstrate that fault slip has varied through time from the middle Pleistocene to the Holocene. Moreover, these results reveal synchronous acceleration of both the central, Santa Fe Springs and western, Los Angeles segments of the fault system since late Pleistocene time (after 200 ka) and slip rates of greater than 2 mm/yr on the downdip, backlimb, fault-ramp below the anticline.

California↗
USGS2024

Detrital zircons and the magmatic history of Viti Levu, Fiji

We integrate the existing detrital zircon data from multiple modern river sediment samples on Viti Levu, Fiji, with the most current available geological and topographic mapping of the respective river drainage basins to compare detrital populations with potential bedrock sources. The temporal and spatial variations in zircon geochemistry supplement what is known from igneous rocks and confirm the petrological differences between plutonic and volcanic rocks from the Eocene to early Oligocene (Yavuna age, >30 Ma), middle Oligocene to middle Miocene (Wainimala age, 30–12.5 Ma), late Miocene (Colo age, 12.5–6.5 Ma) and latest Miocene (Namosi age, 6.5–5 Ma). The >30 Ma Yavuna-age zircons are restricted to areas that drain the previously mapped Yavuna Group. The 30–12.5 Ma zircons are found across central Viti Levu from west to east, and the 30–15 Ma zircons have distinctively low U/Yb and high Dy/Yb ratios. They are the best radiometric evidence of widespread early to middle Miocene arc magmatism in Fiji that was relatively U-poor. Peak deconvolution of the Colo age zircons from individual basins suggests the following ages for undated or poorly dated plutons from central Viti Levu. The large Mavuvu pluton is probably composed of multiple intrusions in the 12–10 Ma range, the Waiqa pluton is probably ca 10 Ma, and the Noikoro pluton is probably ca 9 Ma. There are zircons from unknown plutonic or volcanic sources between 8 and 7 Ma in western Viti Levu that have distinct Eu/Eu* ratios. We attribute the highest U/Yb ratios in some Colo age zircons to crustal anatexis. Namosi-age zircons are abundant in the Medrausucu Group and can be found scattered across Viti Levu.

Viti Levu↗
USGS2025

Ultramafic float rocks at Jezero crater (Mars): Excavation of lower crustal rocks or mantle peridotites by impact cratering?

Based on observation and data from meteorites and in situ scientific missions, experiments as well as models, the Martian mantle is assumed to share some compositional and mineralogical affinity with the terrestrial mantle. However, there might be subtle differences like the Martian mantle being more ferroan. Yet, we do not have any direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock to confirm this assumption. NASA’s Perseverance rover found olivine-rich boulder-sized float rocks on the upper Jezero fan (Mars). These boulders have an ultramafic composition and their mineralogy is dominantly composed of Fo 73±3 olivine with high-Mg orthopyroxene, Cr-rich Ti-Fe oxides and minor plagioclase and high-Ca pyroxene. Microtextural and petrological analysis reveals that these minerals crystallized at equilibrium. In addition, these boulders are different from all the bedrocks analyzed by Perseverance along its traverse which are crustal igneous rocks and sediments. Comparing our data to Martian meteorites and available Mars bulk silicate models (BSM), we discuss that these boulders could represent primitive melts and/or lower crustal material, and we specifically hypothesize that they could be mantle peridotites. We propose that these putative mantle rocks could have been excavated by the succession of impacts from the shallow mantle or lower crust in the Isidis region where Jezero crater is located. These olivine-rich boulders could thereby constitute the first direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2024

Wildfire, extreme precipitation and debris flows, oh my! Channel response to compounding disturbances in a mountain stream in the Upper Colorado Basin, USA

Compounding changes in climate and human activities stand to increase sediment input to rivers in many landscapes, including via discrete perturbations such as post-fire debris flows. Because sediment supply is a dominant control on river morphology, understanding mountain river responses to sediment regime perturbations is critical to predicting and addressing downstream effects to infrastructure, water security and aquatic habitat. A growing body of literature explores the causes, likelihood, size and composition of post-fire debris flows, but the channel response to these disturbances remains poorly studied. This study used repeat field surveys, time-lapse photographs and pre- and post-disturbance remote sensing datasets to document and analyse space- and time-varying channel response to post-fire debris flows along a steep mountain stream in the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA. Specifically, we evaluated channel morphology and bed composition changes, correlations between channel changes and valley and channel attributes, and the relative importance of spring snowmelt versus summer monsoon events. Several cross-sectional channel change types were observed from lidar a month after post-fire debris-flow events, including channelized and braided incision into deposits, incision into the pre-fire channel bed, bank erosion and no change. Channel changes were most correlated with pre-fire channel width, valley width and unit stream power, and these relationships could be tested in other burned locations to evaluate their transferability. Repeat channel surveys before and after snowmelt indicate rapid recovery and channel narrowing following major sediment disturbances, although sediment deposits remained in the channel margins. Together, these results highlight the importance of field and remote sensing-based channel surveys to improve understanding of, and potential to predict, mountain channel response to compounding climate disturbances.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗
USGS2026

Detecting snow avalanche activity using infrasound: Hooker Valley, New Zealand

Snow avalanches pose considerable hazards to people and infrastructure in alpine environments. Traditional avalanche monitoring relies on meteorological data and visual observations, which can be limited in scope and timeliness. Infrasound offers a promising complementary monitoring tool by detecting the low-frequency sound waves generated by avalanches. Here, we present infrasound and camera observations during a 50-day field campaign in the Hooker Valley of Aoraki/Mount Cook National Park, New Zealand. Our study detected seven avalanches with the cameras, whereas the infrasound system identified only one of these events, which was the largest and occurred under conditions that likely favoured infrasound propagation. The infrasound system recorded numerous other events not captured by the cameras, indicating the benefit of further investigation to determine their sources. These findings highlight the potential of infrasound technology for detecting avalanches and providing broad spatial coverage, capturing events in areas not monitored by cameras, while also showcasing limitations in infrasound capabilities. The limited detection of smaller avalanches underscores the opportunity for further research to enhance detection capabilities and understand environmental influences such as snow cover and wind noise. Overall, this study emphasises the utility of multidisciplinary monitoring techniques to improve avalanche detection in alpine environments.

Hooker Valley↗
USGS2025

Lunar grid systems, coordinate systems, and map projections for the Artemis missions and lunar surface navigation

Foreward This document contains design specifications of a navigational standard for the Moon, including a Lunar Transverse Mercator system, a Lunar Polar Stereographic system, a Lunar Grid Reference System, and a unique coordinate structure, Artemis Condensed Coordinates, for Artemis mission navigation and lunar surface science. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Artemis campaign seeks to place humans on the Moon for the first time since the Apollo missions. Early Artemis missions are heavily focused on the lunar south pole, which promises to return valuable data on the Moon’s geologic record, amongst other mission objectives. Coordinate systems in use today for the lunar south pole provides crew members on the surface neither an efficient nor intuitive means to communicate their position and orientation. A novel grid coordinate system, the Lunar Grid Reference System, is proposed to address these concerns for use in real-time extravehicular activity operations on the lunar surface. The many stakeholders involved in the Artemis missions will need a common system to communicate position and orientation while astronauts are operating on the lunar surface. To that end, Artemis crew members will need that system to be efficient and intuitive to promote efficient extravehicular activity timelines and reduce confusion. In the context of this document, these characteristics are addressed on the design of lunar coordinate systems: Efficient.—The number of characters required to communicate a location within a desired precision level in both local and global contexts, and how many steps are required for a recipient or sender to interpret a location. Intuitive.—How well the system aligns with human perceptual abilities, and whether the system yields distances that have the same relationship to actual lunar surface distance in all directions from the point where a person is located. Technological systems are currently being investigated to supplement the crew members’ ability to locate and orient themselves and other assets on the lunar surface; however, it is unlikely that those systems will be fully operational for the first few landed missions. Even with future positional aids, crew members will still need an efficient and intuitive means to communicate position and orientation. In addition, if technological systems fail, the crews will require land navigation skills and have maps available, thus providing further motivation for a crew-centric coordinate system. The contents of this U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) document detail a comprehensive framework for standardizing lunar crewed surface navigation within NASA and outlines the protocols, methods, and designs necessary for achieving consistency and interoperability across relevant space mission teams and lunar surface navigators. Key components of this document include designs of map projections, projected coordinate reference systems (Lunar Transverse Mercator and Lunar Polar Stereographic systems), and a grid system (Lunar Grid Reference System and Artemis Condensed Coordinates) for the Moon. The work proposed in this document seeks to accomplish something similar to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) document SIG 0012 (NGA, 2014a), but for using grid systems for the Moon. This report incorporates initial feedback and input from NASA’s Artemis Geospatial Data Team, NASA’s Flight Operations Directorate, National Geodetic Survey, USGS Astrogeology Science Center, and NGA and is intended to serve as a resource for all involved with the Artemis missions, as well as for engineers designing and operating lunar infrastructure.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2024

Developments in African industrial minerals for renewable energy

Introduction Africa is emerging as a leading source for minerals used in the manufacture of batteries for electric vehicles and in other renewable energy applications. New graphite, lithium, and rare-earth mines have or could be opened in African countries from 2017 through 2026. Estimates of production capacities for graphite, lithium, and rare-earth mines for 2023 and beyond are based upon supply-side assumptions, such as announced plans for new capacity construction and bankable feasibility studies, as well as projected trends that could affect current producing facilities in 2023 and planned new facilities projected to come online by 2026. Forward-looking information, including estimates of future production capacities, graphite flake distributions, and timing of the start of operations, are subject to risk factors and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ significantly from expected outcomes. Projects listed in this report are presented as an indication of industry plans and are not a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prediction of what will take place. Only projects with planned startup dates are included in this report; ther graphite, lithium, and rare-earth projects in Africa without startup dates were known to be in various stages of development but are not included in this fact sheet.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2024

Debris-flow entrainment modelling under climate change: Considering antecedent moisture conditions along the flow path

Debris-flow volumes can increase along their flow path by entraining sediment stored in the channel bed and banks, thus also increasing hazard potential. Theoretical considerations, laboratory experiments and field investigations all indicate that the saturation conditions of the sediment along the flow path can greatly influence the amount of sediment entrained. However, this process is usually not considered for practical applications. This study aims to close this gap by combining runout and hydrological models into a predictive framework that is calibrated and tested using unique observations of sediment erosion and debris-flow properties available at a Swiss debris-flow observation station (Illgraben). To this end, hourly water input to the erodible channel is predicted using a simple, process-based hydrological model, and the resulting water saturation level in the upper sediment layer of the channel is modelled based on a Hortonian infiltration concept. Debris-flow entrainment is then predicted using the RAMMS debris-flow runout model. We find a strong correlation between the modelled saturation level of the sediment on the flow path and the channel-bed erodibility for single-surge debris-flow events with distinct fronts, indicating that the modelled water content is a good predictor for erosion simulated in RAMMS. Debris-flow properties with more complex flow behaviour (e.g., multiple surges or roll waves) are not as well predicted using this procedure, indicating that more physically complete models are necessary. Finally, we demonstrate how this modelling framework can be used for climate change impact assessment and show that earlier snowmelt may shift the peak of the debris-flow season to earlier in the year. Our novel modelling framework provides a plausible approach to reproduce saturation-dependent entrainment and thus better constrain event volumes for current and future hazard assessment.

Illgraben basin↗
USGS2024

Assessment of water levels, nitrate, and arsenic in the Carson Valley Alluvial Aquifer and the development of a data visualization tool for the Carson River Basin, Nevada

Residents of Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, rely on the basin-fill alluvial aquifer underlying the valley for drinking water. Since the 1980s, groundwater levels and water-quality data have been collected to monitor the status of the aquifer system and to assist in planning efforts to address current (2024) and future demand. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Douglas County, Nevada, evaluated trends in water levels, nitrate, and arsenic concentrations from a network of monitoring and domestic wells in Carson Valley. This work also assessed the monitoring well network to determine the suitability of wells for characterizing the occurrence of arsenic in the groundwater. Monitoring of constituents, such as nitrate and arsenic concentrations, is needed to assess changes in contaminant distribution and to evaluate the effect that changing land use and groundwater pumping has on their occurrence and transport. Results of the trend analysis indicate water levels are declining ( p <0.05) in 17 of 26 selected monitoring wells (65 percent). Areas with the largest change in water levels, with more than 20 feet of declines, were within the community areas of Johnson Lane, Ruhenstroth, South Agricultural, East Valley, and Fish Springs. Variations in water levels measured in wells from the Central Agricultural, Minden, Foothill, Alpine County (one well), and Gardnerville Ranchos areas show periods of increase and decrease over time, but they also maintain long-term declining trends ( p <0.05). Increases in nitrate concentrations in groundwater samples collected from 9 out of 14 selected monitoring wells (64 percent) are statistically significant ( p <0.05) within the Ruhenstroth, Gardnerville Ranchos, East Valley, Genoa, and Johnson Lane community areas. Samples collected from a well in Indian Hills/Jacks Valley indicated a decreasing trend in nitrate concentration over time. Nitrate concentrations in samples collected from wells in East Valley, Genoa, Johnson Lane, and Indian Hills/Jack Valley were consistently low (less than 3 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) and stable. Nitrate concentrations from selected wells in Johnson Lane and Garnerville Ranchos exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 mg/L (as nitrogen) and have trends that are increasing over time. In 2022, a sample collected from Johnson Lane had a concentration (7.3 mg/L) below the MCL with an increasing trend over time. Temporal trend analyses for groundwater arsenic concentrations in Carson Valley could not be done because of a lack of temporal data. However, using available historical data, arsenic concentrations seem to be greater in groundwater from wells located on the eastern and northern areas of the valley than in wells located on the western or southern areas. Groundwater arsenic concentrations exceed 5 micrograms per liter (μg/L) in most samples collected from wells in Johnson Lane, Airport, Central Agricultural, and East Valley areas and in many cases exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) MCL of 10 μg/L. Data indicate that groundwater from domestic wells screened at deeper intervals are likely more vulnerable to elevated arsenic concentrations than shallower wells. A groundwater network evaluation for Carson Valley identified potential modifications in the sampling locations and frequency to better understand the effect of groundwater pumping in communities where municipal and domestic demand are greatest, potentially enhancing understanding of contaminant transport in these areas. Potential modifications to the active well network include reducing the frequency of sample collection from existing network wells (6 out of 11) that have consistently shown low and stable nitrate concentrations, adding wells in areas where data are sparse, and increasing the number of wells in areas with elevated groundwater nitrate concentrations. Including the analysis of arsenic in samples from the active groundwater monitoring well network will provide more detail on the temporal and spatial variability of arsenic concentrations. A visualization tool for the Carson River Basin was developed to provide access to discrete and near real-time hydrologic and water-quality data. The Carson River Basin Hydro Mapper (CBH; U.S. Geological Survey, 2023b) shows active and historical discrete water levels measured by the USGS and the State of Nevada Division of Water Resources, discrete groundwater nitrate and arsenic concentration data collected by the USGS, near real-time streamflow, and surface water levels for select waterbodies. The hydrologic data in the CBH provides resource managers, the public, and the scientific community with an easily accessible tool to present and communicate the most up-to-date information available about local and basin-wide water resources.

Nevada↗
USGS2025

Invited perspectives: Integrating hydrologic information into the next generation of landslide early warning systems

Although rainfall-triggered landslides are initiated by subsurface hydro-mechanical processes related to the loading, weakening, and eventual failure of slope materials, most landslide early warning systems (LEWS) have relied solely on rainfall event information. In previous decades, several studies demonstrated the value of integrating proxies for subsurface hydrologic information to improve rainfall-based forecasting of shallow landslides. More recently, broader access to commercial sensors and telemetry for real-time data transmission has invigorated new research into hydrometeorological thresholds for LEWS. Given the increasing number of studies across the globe using hydrologic monitoring, mathematical modeling, or both in combination, it is now possible to make some insights into the advantages versus limitations of this approach. The extensive progress demonstrates the value of in situ hydrologic information for reducing both failed and false alarms, through the ability to characterize infiltration during, as well as the drainage and drying processes between major storm events. There are also some areas for caution surrounding the long-term sustainability of subsurface monitoring in landslide-prone terrain, as well as unresolved questions in hillslope hydrologic modeling, which relies heavily on the assumptions of diffuse flow and vertical infiltration but often ignores preferential flow and lateral drainage. Here, we share a collective perspective based on our previous collaborative work across Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia to discuss these challenges and provide some guidelines for integrating knowledge of hydrology and climate into the next generation of LEWS. We propose that the greatest opportunity for improvement is through a measure-and-model approach to develop an understanding of landslide hydro-climatology that accounts for local controls on subsurface storage dynamics. Additionally, new efforts focused on the subsurface hydrology are complementary to existing rainfall-based methods, so leveraging these with near-term precipitation forecasts is a priority for increasing lead times.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Streamflow depletion caused by groundwater pumping: Fundamental research priorities for management-relevant science

Reductions in streamflow caused by groundwater pumping, known as “streamflow depletion,” link the hydrologic process of stream-aquifer interactions to human modifications of the water cycle. Isolating the impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow is challenging because other climate and human activities concurrently impact streamflow, making it difficult to separate individual drivers of hydrologic change. In addition, there can be lags between when pumping occurs and when streamflow is affected. However, accurate quantification of streamflow depletion is critical to integrated groundwater and surface water management decision making. Here, we highlight research priorities to help advance fundamental hydrologic science and better serve the decision-making process. Key priorities include (a) linking streamflow depletion to decision-relevant outcomes such as ecosystem function and water users to align with partner needs; (b) enhancing partner trust and applicability of streamflow depletion methods through benchmarking and coupled model development; and (c) improving links between streamflow depletion quantification and decision-making processes. Catalyzing research efforts around the common goal of enhancing our streamflow depletion decision-support capabilities will require disciplinary advances within the water science community and a commitment to transdisciplinary collaboration with diverse water-connected disciplines, professions, governments, organizations, and communities.

Water Resource Research↗
USGS2026

Regional models for postfire debris-flow likelihood and rainfall thresholds across the western United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) uses an empirical model developed with logistic regression (the ‘M1’ model) to rapidly assess debris-flow likelihood and to identify quantitative rainfall thresholds for debris flows after wildfire in the western United States. The M1 model was calibrated to a debris-flow inventory from southern California (United States) and has been applied throughout the western United States. Limited spatial coverage in the calibration dataset has motivated evaluation of M1 model accuracy outside the calibration region (e.g., the Sierra Nevada or the eastern Cascade Range, United States). Previous test cases showed that M1 overpredicts debris-flow likelihood and underpredicts rainfall thresholds for some locations (e.g., Arizona, northern California, Colorado, New Mexico, United States). We sought to improve the regional applicability of a debris-flow likelihood model by expanding the debris-flow inventory used for calibration, testing multiple potential models and generating an updated model framework. The updated inventory includes 3788 observations from 67 burned areas paired with short duration rainfall ratios. The updated model framework consists of a modified model structure and sets of coefficients calibrated separately to the entire updated inventory and to subsets of the inventory that intersect three Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level 2 ecoregions (Mediterranean California, Upper Gila Mountains and Western Cordillera). Comparisons of predictions from the updated models with observed rainfall and debris-flow activity show that the updated models outperform the M1 model by ~15%–60% and improve the uniformity of predictive performance across the western United States. The updated models also reduce false positive rates relative to M1 and generate rainfall thresholds that are better aligned with relative differences in regional climatology and debris-flow activity.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗