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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources
USGS2002

New shoreline change data and analysis for the Massachusetts shore with emphasis on Cape Cod and the islands: Mid-1800s to 1994

That shorelines change, oftentimes dramatically in short periods of time, is an accepted fact for those who live along the shore. However, when two-thirds or approximately 512 miles of a state's ocean-facing shore exhibits a long-term erosional trend, in some locations eroding at an average annual rate of 12 feet per year, as is the case in Massachusetts, shoreline property owners, prospective shorefront property owners, and coastal managers need to pay particular attention to the future location of the shoreline to avoid physical and economic disasters. The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Sea Grant Program, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Cape Cod Cooperative Extension recently completed an update and statistical analysis of historical shoreline change along approximately 1,000 miles of Massachusetts' ocean-facing shore, of which 754 miles were statistically analyzed (Thieler, O'Connell and Schupp, 2001; Schupp, Thieler & O'Connell, 2001). The project was funded by the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management. In general, four to five shoreline positions mapped between the mid-1800s to 1994 were used to analyze changes along the Massachusetts shore. Seventy-six shoreline change maps with accompanying data tables and a Technical Report were produced. The results of this study reveal that approximately two-thirds of the Massachusetts shore is eroding, with 68% of the shore exhibiting a long-term erosional trend, 30% showing long-term accretion, and 2% showing no net change. ln some areas, erosion rates have accelerated based on a comparison study of previous data that was conducted in 1997 (O'Connell, 1997). Ironically, coastal property that commands some of the highest real estate values in the Commonwealth also exhibits the highest consistent long-term average annual erosion rates. This paper describes the data sources used to map historic shorelines in Massachusetts, the methodology used to both plot a new shoreline and analyze the long-term historical data, and describes cautions necessary when interpreting and applying shoreline change data, with site-specific examples along the Massachusetts shore.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2013

Fish: Section 4.8 in Climate change and the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary: Interpreting potential futures.

Summary Decreased ocean survival of Chinook and coho salmon in the coastal waters of Washington, Oregon, and California is likely based on historical and present day observations during conditions of unusually high water temperatures and reduced or delayed upwelling. Based on observations during conditions of unusually high water temperatures and reduced or delayed upwelling, highly migratory southern species including Pacific hake, jack and Pacific chub mackerel, and Pacific sardine will likely become more abundant and distributed closer to shore off Washington. In contrast, resident forage fish including northern anchovy, Pacific herring, and smelts (surf and whitebait) may become less abundant. Small pelagic fish (i.e. forage fish and mackerel) respond more rapidly to climaterelated changes in ocean conditions than benthic fish. Distribution and abundance of benthic fish reflect average ocean conditions over periods of many years. A key question for groundfish is how long term, sustained changes in ocean conditions will affect the current spatial configuration of habitats and fish communities, and the productivity of those habitats and communities. Little is known about effects of ocean acidification on northeast Pacific fish; however, work with tropical reef fish suggests that increased acidity impairs larval fish behavior (their ability to find suitable reef habitat from olfactory and auditory cues) and ultimately their survival. Response of benthic fish in the OCNMS to future increases in hypoxia will likely be similar to those for fish off the central Oregon coast where hypoxia developed each summer starting in 2002. Abundance and condition of fish will decline in hypoxic areas. Fish will move inshore seeking higher oxygen concentrations. Species adapted to low oxygen environments, for example Dover sole, will be less affected.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2013

Benthic substrate classification map: Gulf Islands National Seashore

The 2005 hurricane season was devastating for the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Hurricane Katrina caused significant degradation of the barrier islands that compose the Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS). Because of the ability of coastal barrier islands to help mitigate hurricane damage to the mainland, restoring these habitats prior to the onset of future storms will help protect the islands themselves and the surrounding habitats. During Hurricane Katrina, coastal barrier islands reduced storm surge by approximately 10 percent and moderated wave heights (Wamsley and others, 2009). Islands protected the mainland by preventing ocean waves from maintaining their size as they approached the mainland. In addition to storm protection, it is advantageous to restore these islands to preserve the cultural heritage present there (for example, Fort Massachusetts) and because of the influence that these islands have on marine ecology. For example, these islands help maintain a salinity regime favorable to oysters in the Mississippi Sound and provide critical habitats for many migratory birds and endangered species such as sea turtles (Chelonia mydas, Caretta caretta, and Dermochelys coriacea), Gulf sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi), and piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2009a). As land manager for the GUIS, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with the State of Mississippi and the Mobile District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to provide a set of recommendations to the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program (MsCIP) that will guide restoration planning. The final set of recommendations includes directly renourishing both West Ship Island (to protect Fort Massachusetts) and East Ship Island (to restore the French Warehouse archaeological site); filling Camille Cut to recreate a continuous Ship Island; and restoring natural regional sediment transport processes by placing sand in the littoral zone just east of Petit Bois Island. Prevailing sediment transport processes will provide natural renourishment of the westward islands in the barrier system (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2009b). One difficulty in developing the final recommendations is that few data are available to incorporate into restoration plans related to bathymetry, sediment type, and biota. For example, the most recent bathymetry available dates to when East and West Ship Islands were a single continuous island (1917). As a result, the MsCIP program has encouraged post-hurricane bathymetric data collection for future reference. Furthermore, managing a complex environment such as this barrier island system for habitat conservation and best resource usage requires significant knowledge about those habitats and resources. To effectively address these issues, a complete and comprehensive understanding of the type, geographic extent, and condition of marine resources included within the GUIS is required. However, the data related to the GUIS marine resources are limited either spatially or temporally. Specifically, there is limited knowledge and information about the distribution of benthic habitats and the characteristics of the offshore region of the GUIS, even though these are the habitats that will be most affected by habitat restoration. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive map of the benthic marine habitats within the GUIS to give park managers the ability to develop strategies for coastal and ocean-resource management and to aid decisionmakers in evaluating conservation priorities.

Mississippi↗
USGS2011

USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts; shoreline change assessment

The coastline of the United States features some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations in the world and is the site of intense residential, commercial, and industrial development. The coastal zone also has extensive and pristine natural areas, with diverse ecosystems providing essential habitat and resources that support wildlife, fish, and human use. Coastal erosion is a widespread process along most open-ocean shores of the United States that affects both developed and natural coastlines. As the coast changes, there are a wide range of ways that change can affect coastal communities, habitats, and the physical characteristics of the coast?including beach erosion, shoreline retreat, land loss, and damage to infrastructure. Global climate change will likely increase the rate of coastal change. A recent study of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, for example, found that it is virtually certain that sandy beaches will erode faster in the future as sea level rises because of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for conducting research on coastal change hazards, understanding the processes that cause coastal change, and developing models to predict future change. To understand and adapt to shoreline change, accurate information regarding the past and present configurations of the shoreline is essential. A comprehensive, nationally consistent analysis of shoreline movement is needed. To meet this national need, the USGS is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean coasts of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, as well as the coasts of the Great Lakes.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2021

Global-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming

Extreme surface ocean waves are often primary drivers of coastal flooding and erosion over various time scales. Hence, understanding future changes in extreme wave events owing to global warming is of socio-economic and environmental significance. However, our current knowledge of potential changes in high-frequency (defined here as having return periods of less than 1 year) extreme wave events are largely unknown, despite being strongly linked to coastal hazards across time scales relevant to coastal management. Here, we present global climate-modeling evidence, based on the most comprehensive multi-method, multi-model wave ensemble, of projected changes in a core set of extreme wave indices describing high-frequency, extra-tropical storm-driven waves. We find changes in high-frequency extreme wave events of up to ∼50%–100% under RCP8.5 high-emission scenario; which is nearly double the expected changes for RCP4.5 scenario, when globally integrated. The projected changes exhibit strong inter-hemispheric asymmetry, with strong increases in extreme wave activity across the tropics and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere region, and a widespread decrease across most of the Northern Hemisphere. We find that the patterns of projected increase across these extreme wave events over the Southern Hemisphere region resemble their historical response to the positive anomaly of the Southern Annular Mode. Our findings highlight that many countries with low-adaptive capacity are likely to face increasing exposure to much more frequent extreme wave events in the future.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2014

Topographic, latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri : geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope

With changing climate, many species are projected to move poleward or to higher elevations to track suitable climates. The prediction that species will move poleward assumes that geographically marginal populations are at the edge of the species' climatic range. We studied Pinus coulteri from the center to the northern (poleward) edge of its range, and examined three scenarios regarding the relationship between the geographic and climatic margins of a species' range. We used herbarium and iNaturalist.org records to identify P. coulteri sites, generated a species distribution model based on temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, and actual evapotranspiration, and projected suitability under future climate scenarios. In fourteen populations from the central to northern portions of the range, we conducted field studies and recorded elevation, slope and aspect (to estimate solar insolation) to examine relationships between local and regional distributions. We found that northern populations of P. coulteri do not occupy the cold or wet edge of the species' climatic range; mid-latitude, high elevation populations occupy the cold margin. Aspect and insolation of P. coulteri populations changed significantly across latitudes and elevations. Unexpectedly, northern, low-elevation stands occupy north-facing aspects and receive low insolation, while central, high-elevation stands grow on more south-facing aspects that receive higher insolation. Modeled future climate suitability is projected to be highest in the central, high elevation portion of the species range, and in low-lying coastal regions under some scenarios, with declining suitability in northern areas under most future scenarios. For P. coulteri , the lack of high elevation habitat combined with a major dispersal barrier may limit northward movement in response to a warming climate. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of distinguishing geographically vs. climatically marginal populations, and the importance of quantitative analysis of the realized climate space to understand species range limits.

Ecography↗
USGS2021

The application of ensemble wave forcing to quantify uncertainty of shoreline change predictions

Reliable predictions and accompanying uncertainty estimates of coastal evolution on decadal to centennial time scales are increasingly sought. So far, most coastal change projections rely on a single, deterministic realization of the unknown future wave climate, often derived from a global climate model. Yet, deterministic projections do not account for the stochastic nature of future wave conditions across a variety of temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, seasonally, and interannually). Here, we present an ensemble Kalman filter shoreline change model to predict coastal erosion and uncertainty due to waves at a variety of time scales. We compare shoreline change projections, simulated with and without ensemble wave forcing conditions by applying ensemble wave time series produced by a computationally efficient statistical downscaling method. We demonstrate a sizable (site-dependent) increase in model uncertainty compared with the unrealistic case of model projections based on a single, deterministic realization (e.g., a single time series) of the wave forcing. We support model-derived uncertainty estimates with a novel mathematical analysis of ensembles of idealized process models. Here, the developed ensemble modeling approach is applied to a well-monitored beach in Tairua, New Zealand. However, the model and uncertainty quantification techniques derived here are generally applicable to a variety of coastal settings around the world.

JGR Earth Surface↗
USGS2020

Predicting barrier island habitats and oyster and seagrass habitat suitability for various restoration measures and future conditions for Dauphin Island, Alabama

Barrier islands, such as Dauphin Island, Alabama, provide numerous invaluable ecosystem services including storm damage reduction and erosion control to the mainland, habitat for fish and wildlife, carbon sequestration in marshes, water catchment and purification, recreation, and tourism. These islands are dynamic environments that are gradually shaped by currents, waves, and tides under quiescent conditions yet can evolve in the time scale of hours to days during hurricanes and other extreme storms. The ecosystems associated with these islands also face numerous other hazards, including accelerated sea-level rise, oil spills, and anthropogenic stressors. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010 are two major events that have affected habitats and natural resources on Dauphin Island, Ala. The latter event prompted a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to investigate viable, sustainable restoration measures that reduce degradation and enhance the natural resources of Dauphin Island, Ala. In collaboration with the State of Alabama and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, the overarching goal of the Alabama Barrier Island Restoration Feasibility Assessment project was to document baseline conditions and forecast potential conditions under varying sea-level change and storm scenarios for a no-action alternative along with a variety of restoration measures including beach and dune restoration, marsh and back-barrier restoration, and placement of sand in the littoral zone. The modeling component of this project used decadal hydrodynamic geomorphic, water quality, and habitat modeling to better understand how the various restoration measures may influence the habitat composition, sustainability, and resiliency of Dauphin Island under potential future conditions, benchmarked against the no-action case. The report covers the habitat modeling efforts associated with the Alabama Barrier Island Restoration Feasibility Assessment project. For various potential future island configurations for Dauphin Island, we predicted coverage of habitat types (for example, beach, dune, intertidal marsh, and woody vegetation) using a spatially explicit habitat model based on landscape-position information (for example, elevation and distance from shore) extracted from the hydrodynamic geomorphic outputs. Similarly, we forecasted habitat suitability for oysters and seagrass using habitat suitability index models. Another component of the Alabama Barrier Island Restoration Feasibility Assessment project, presented separately, integrates these habitat model results into a structured decision-making framework that accounts for competing objectives. Collectively, this information provides insights to natural resource managers and planners on how a restoration measure may maintain or impede natural coastal processes and provide information critical for making future-focused decisions regarding barrier island restoration.

Alabama↗
USGS2023

Simulation of future streamflow and irrigation demand based on climate and urban growth projections in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, North Carolina and South Carolina, 2055–65

Water resources in the coastal region of North Carolina and South Carolina (Coastal Carolinas) are currently under stress from competing ecological and societal needs. Projected changes in climate and population are expected to place even more stress on water resources in the region. The Coastal Carolinas Focus Area Study was initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program’s National Water Census to investigate these stressors and their effects on water resources for the Coastal Carolinas. As part of that study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate future streamflow and irrigation demand under six scenarios for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, which flow through the Coastal Carolinas and into the Atlantic Ocean. For each river basin, historical (2000 through 2014) Soil and Water Assessment Tool models were minimally calibrated, and future (2055 through 2065) scenario models were developed based on three alternative global climate models, two alternative urban growth projections, and water-use projections that correspond to each global climate model and urban growth projection pair. The river basins were delineated into 2,928 and 5,678 subbasins for the Cape Fear and Pee Dee, respectively, each approximately 2.6 square miles (mi 2 ) in size. The best available water-use and wastewater discharge data were used for historical model calibration. The models simulated monthly mean streamflow with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.53 (n = 36) and 0.61 (n = 33) in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins, respectively. Average percent bias was −4.8 percent for the Cape Fear River Basin and −1.2 percent for the Pee Dee River Basin. Catchments for streamgages chosen for model calibration that were small (less than 100 mi 2 ) to medium (100–1,000 mi 2 ) in area tended to perform better than larger catchments (greater than 1,000 mi 2 ). Historical models were used to develop future model scenarios by replacing historical weather, land-use, and water-use input datasets with projected datasets. One small, gaged catchment was selected to illustrate how the models can be used to evaluate the relative differences in simulated streamflow resulting from alternative global climate models and urban growth projections. For the selected catchment, future climate projections had a much greater influence on simulated streamflow than urban growth projections. Simulated cumulative monthly mean streamflow results for this catchment differed by 26 percent under alternative global climate models and differed by 2.4 percent under alternative urban growth projections. Irrigation demand was modeled for subbasins with cropland. Simulated differences in irrigation demand were more pronounced and widespread across the model domain under the alternative future climate scenarios compared to alternative urban growth scenarios. The calibrated and future scenario models have the capability to run on a daily time step and simulate streamflow and irrigation demand for thousands of small subbasins in the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River Basins. The models and underlying datasets enable future analyses for large and small areas within the basins.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗
USGS2026

Towards a refined definition of “tidal influence” for the coastal wetland sciences

The astronomical tide relates to lunar (and to a lesser extent solar) influences on rising and falling water bodies, and is a key control of many coastal processes. However, tides manifest along coastal margins in different ways to muddle application beyond Sir Isaac Newton’s first descriptions. Here, we argue that tide, or specifically “tidal,” has not been adequately defined for the coastal wetland sciences to facilitate contemporary interdisciplinary distinction for rapidly changing coastlines and future climate adaptation planning. We provide a brief history of the tidal concept, and we describe tides in a diversity of uncommonly recognized marginal coastal environments. Common astronomical tide manifestations are described through hydrographic examples, then expanded to include those tidal environments exposed additionally to fluvial, meteorological (wind), or groundwater influences. Our expanded definition of “tidal” is intended to be a forward-looking construct as environments will inevitably change with sea-level rise, water extraction, and anthropogenic flow alteration. Our definition of wetland tidal influence, which we broaden, includes those “wetlands affected by astronomic water level fluctuations within coastally restricted environments causing frequent or infrequent surface inundation or groundwater tidal variation that affects the biogeochemistry of the soil (e.g., ion exchange capacity, oxygen state, mineralization processes)”. Astronomic water level fluctuations are often amplified or dampened by non-astronomical events, such as wind. Expanding the definition of what is considered tidal by the scientific community is critical for improved understanding of coastal wetland function and the suite of ecosystem services they provide people and society, including climate mitigation opportunity, management, and adaptation.

Wetlands↗
USGS2013

Assessing hazards along our Nation's coasts

Coastal areas are essential to the economic, cultural, and environmental health of the Nation, yet by nature coastal areas are constantly changing due to a variety of events and processes. Extreme storms can cause dramatic changes to our shorelines in a matter of hours, while sea-level rise can profoundly alter coastal environments over decades. These changes can have a devastating impact on coastal communities, such as the loss of homes built on retreating sea cliffs or protective dunes eroded by storm waves. Sometimes, however, the changes can be positive, such as new habitat created by storm deposits. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is meeting the need for scientific understanding of how our coasts respond to different hazards with continued assessments of current and future changes along U.S. coastlines. Through the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH), the USGS carries out the unique task of quantifying coastal change hazards along open-ocean coasts in the United States and its territories. Residents of coastal communities, emergency managers, and other stakeholders can use science-based data, tools, models, and other products to improve planning and enhance resilience.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2015

Large-scale dam removal on the Elwha River, Washington, USA: source-to-sink sediment budget and synthesis

Understanding landscape responses to sediment supply changes constitutes a fundamental part of many problems in geomorphology, but opportunities to study such processes at field scales are rare. The phased removal of two large dams on the Elwha River, Washington, exposed 21 ± 3 million m 3 , or ~ 30 million tonnes (t), of sediment that had been deposited in the two former reservoirs, allowing a comprehensive investigation of watershed and coastal responses to a substantial increase in sediment supply. Here we provide a source-to-sink sediment budget of this sediment release during the first two years of the project (September 2011–September 2013) and synthesize the geomorphic changes that occurred to downstream fluvial and coastal landforms. Owing to the phased removal of each dam, the release of sediment to the river was a function of the amount of dam structure removed, the progradation of reservoir delta sediments, exposure of more cohesive lakebed sediment, and the hydrologic conditions of the river. The greatest downstream geomorphic effects were observed after water bodies of both reservoirs were fully drained and fine (silt and clay) and coarse (sand and gravel) sediments were spilling past the former dam sites. After both dams were spilling fine and coarse sediments, river suspended-sediment concentrations were commonly several thousand mg/L with ~ 50% sand during moderate and high river flow. At the same time, a sand and gravel sediment wave dispersed down the river channel, filling channel pools and floodplain channels, aggrading much of the river channel by ~ 1 m, reducing river channel sediment grain sizes by ~ 16-fold, and depositing ~ 2.2 million m 3 of sand and gravel on the seafloor offshore of the river mouth. The total sediment budget during the first two years revealed that the vast majority (~ 90%) of the sediment released from the former reservoirs to the river passed through the fluvial system and was discharged to the coastal waters, where slightly less than half of the sediment was deposited in the river-mouth delta. Although most of the measured fluvial and coastal deposition was sand-sized and coarser (> 0.063 mm), significant mud deposition was observed in and around the mainstem river channel and on the seafloor. Woody debris, ranging from millimeter-size particles to old-growth trees and stumps, was also introduced to fluvial and coastal landforms during the dam removals. At the end of our two-year study, Elwha Dam was completely removed, Glines Canyon Dam had been 75% removed (full removal was completed 2014), and ~ 65% of the combined reservoir sediment masses—including ~ 8 Mt of fine-grained and ~ 12 Mt of coarse-grained sediment—remained within the former reservoirs. Reservoir sediment will continue to be released to the Elwha River following our two-year study owing to a ~ 16 m base level drop during the final removal of Glines Canyon Dam and to erosion from floods with larger magnitudes than occurred during our study. Comparisons with a geomorphic synthesis of small dam removals suggest that the rate of sediment erosion as a percent of storage was greater in the Elwha River during the first two years of the project than in the other systems. Comparisons with other Pacific Northwest dam removals suggest that these steep, high-energy rivers have enough stream power to export volumes of sediment deposited over several decades in only months to a few years. These results should assist with predicting and characterizing landscape responses to future dam removals and other perturbations to fluvial and coastal sediment budgets.

Washington↗
USGS2018

Mechanisms of wave‐driven water level variability on reef‐fringed coastlines

Wave‐driven water level variability (and runup at the shoreline) is a significant cause of coastal flooding induced by storms. Wave runup is challenging to predict, particularly along tropical coral reef‐fringed coastlines due to the steep bathymetric profiles and large bottom roughness generated by reef organisms, which can violate assumptions in conventional models applied to open sandy coastlines. To investigate the mechanisms of wave‐driven water level variability on a reef‐fringed coastline, we performed a set of laboratory flume experiments on an along‐shore uniform bathymetric profile with and without bottom roughness. Wave setup and waves at frequencies lower than the incident sea‐swell forcing (infragravity waves) were found to be the dominant components of runup. These infragravity waves were positively correlated with offshore wave groups, signifying they were generated in the surf zone by the oscillation of the breakpoint. On the reef flat and at the shoreline, the low‐frequency waves formed a standing wave pattern with energy concentrated at the natural frequencies of the reef flat, indicating resonant amplification. Roughness elements used in the flume to mimic large reef bottom roughness reduced low frequency motions on the reef flat and reduced wave run up by 30% on average, compared to the runs over a smooth bed. These results provide insight into sea‐swell and infragravity wave transformation and wave setup dynamics on steep‐sloped coastlines, and the effect that future losses of reef bottom roughness may have on coastal flooding along reef‐fringed coasts.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2024

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Long Island, New York regional aquifer system for pumping and recharge conditions from 1900 to 2019

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a transient, groundwater-flow model that simulates hydrologic conditions in the Long Island aquifer system as part of an ongoing (since 2016) multiyear, cooperative investigation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The goals of this investigation are to assist stakeholders and resource managers to evaluate the response of the hydrologic system to changes in future hydraulic stresses. Responses in the hydrologic system include changes in water levels in the hydrogeologic units; discharge to streams, coastal waters, and subsurface infrastructure; and the extent of saline groundwater in the aquifers. Hydraulic stresses include future water-supply management and changes in land use and infrastructure. The numerical model synthesizes a diverse set of physiographic, geologic, climatic, land-use, and historical population, water use, and infrastructure data to physically represent the Long Island aquifer system from land surface to bedrock and to simulate annual hydrologic conditions between 1900 and 2019. A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing and recently collected borehole geologic and geophysical data collected as part of a companion drilling program. Water-transmitting properties of the principal aquifer sediments were defined in three dimensions from new and existing lithologic logs. The distribution of recharge from precipitation was estimated from landscape characteristics and climate data. Anthropogenic recharge from wastewater, leaky infrastructure, and storm runoff were estimated from population, infrastructure, and pumping data. Water-use data, including well locations, depths, and pumping rates, were obtained from historical sources and records and used to estimate pumping stresses continuously in time and space, at an annual average time scale. The data were incorporated into a three-dimensional numerical model using the U.S. Geological Survey finite difference modeling code MODFLOW 6; the model encompassed all of Long Island and surrounding surface waters and simulated historical hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibration process involved trial and error adjustments using prior knowledge to improve general fit to observations followed by an inverse calibration to update and optimize input parameters, using an iterative ensemble smoother algorithm implemented in PEST++ version 5.0. This resulted in a model that generally was in good agreement with observed, dynamically varying hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibrated model was used to develop two base-case models for scenario testing of future, hypothetical conditions where one represented average-annual conditions, and one represented average-seasonal conditions from 2010 to 2019. The model representing average-annual conditions was modified further to represent an alternate sea-level position of 6 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, and the model representing average-seasonal conditions was modified to represent the average seasonal effects of a 5-year drought imposed upon current hydrologic conditions. Recharge is the sole source of water to the aquifer system; groundwater discharges to coastal water and streams and is withdrawn by pumped wells. Model-estimated annual recharge ranged from about 11 inches in 1965 to 41 inches in 1983. On average, from 2010 to 2019, about 23 percent of water was pumped from wells, and about 47 and 27 percent discharged to coastal waters and streams, respectively; the remaining 4 percent was water that moved into storage in the aquifer matrix. Water levels on Long Island vary naturally during time in response to changes in recharge; the amount of variation is largest in the interior of the island, in areas with highest water table altitudes near groundwater divides and lowest near streams and the coastal waters. The total range of water table altitudes on Long Island between 1900 and 2019 ranged from near 0 to more than 70 feet in western parts of Long Island. The largest range in altitudes is in New York City and is associated with areas of large historical withdrawals between the 1920s and the late 1980s. Water table altitudes generally varied by less than 10 feet in eastern Suffolk County, where the aquifer is under more natural conditions. Saltwater intrusion is of great concern on Long Island, particularly in western Long Island where both the unconfined and confined parts of the aquifer system have been intruded in response to large-scale groundwater withdrawals; however, the volume of freshwater in the islandwide aquifer system only has changed by about 5 percent between 1900 and 2019. The decadal change in the freshwater volume was largest during the early and mid-20th century, corresponding to the largest historical pumping, but that volume change did not exceed 1 percent. The negligible change in freshwater volume suggests that saltwater intrusion as of 2019 was limited at an islandwide scale but continues to occur in local areas of Queens and Nassau Counties, adversely affecting current water supplies and limiting future water supplies for affected communities. The regional groundwater model developed for this investigation is a tool that can be used to help determine the viability of current and future water supplies at a regional scale and can be used to support development of additional models at finer scale to support more focused assessments of groundwater sustainability.

New York↗
USGS2015

Diet of yellow-billed loons ( Gavia adamsii ) in Arctic lakes during the nesting season inferred from fatty acid analysis

Understanding the dietary habits of yellow-billed loons ( Gavia adamsii ) can give important insights into their ecology, however, studying the diet of loons is difficult when direct observation or specimen collection is impractical. We investigate the diet of yellow-billed loons nesting on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska using quantitative fatty acid signature analysis. Tissue analysis from 26 yellow-billed loons and eleven prey groups (nine fish species and two invertebrate groups) from Arctic lakes suggests that yellow-billed loons are eating high proportions of Alaska blackfish ( Dallia pectoralis ), broad whitefish ( Coregonus nasus ) and three-spined stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus ) during late spring and early summer. The prominence of blackfish in diets highlights the widespread availability of blackfish during the early stages of loon nesting, soon after spring thaw. The high proportions of broad whitefish and three-spined stickleback may reflect a residual signal from the coastal staging period prior to establishing nesting territories on lakes, when loons are more likely to encounter these species. Our analyses were sensitive to the choice of calibration coefficient based on data from three different species, indicating the need for development of loon-specific coefficients for future study and confirmation of our results. Regardless, fish that are coastally distributed and that successfully overwinter in lakes are likely key food items for yellow-billed loons early in the nesting season.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

Birth of the modern Chesapeake Bay estuary between 7.4 and 8.2 ka and implications for global sea-level rise

Two major pulses of sea-level rise are thought to have taken place since the last glacial maximum — meltwater pulses (mwp) 1A (12 cal ka) and 1B (9.5 cal ka). Between mwp 1B and about 6 cal ka, many of the complex coastal ecosystems which ring the world’s oceans began to form. Here we report data for rhenium, carbon isotopes, total organic carbon, and fossil oysters from Chesapeake Bay which span the transition from fresh to brackish water conditions in the bay in the mid-Holocene. These data constrain sea-level change and resulting environmental change in the bay. They indicate that the transition was rapid, and that it was produced by (1) a third pulse of rapid eustatic sea-level rise, or (2) a geometry of the prehistoric Chesapeake Bay basin which predisposed it to a nonlinear response to a steadily rising sea level. Similar nonlinear changes in vulnerable coastal environments are likely to take place in the future due to polar warming, regardless of the timing or rate of sea-level rise.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS2013

Meeting the Science Needs of the Nation in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy-- A U.S. Geological Survey Science Plan for Support of Restoration and Recovery

n late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy came ashore during a spring high tide on the New Jersey coastline, delivering hurricane-force winds, storm tides exceeding 19 feet, driving rain, and plummeting temperatures. Hurricane Sandy resulted in 72 direct fatalities in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and widespread and substantial physical, environmental, ecological, social, and economic impacts estimated at near $50 billion. Before the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS provided forecasts of potential coastal change; collected oblique aerial photography of pre-storm coastal morphology; deployed storm-surge sensors, rapid-deployment streamgages, wave sensors, and barometric pressure sensors; conducted Light Detection And Ranging (lidar) aerial topographic surveys of coastal areas; and issued a landslide alert for landslide prone areas. During the storm, Tidal Telemetry Networks provided real-time water-level information along the coast. Long-term network and rapid-deployment real-time streamgages and water-quality monitors reported on river levels and changes in water quality. Immediately after the storm, the USGS serviced real-time instrumentation, retrieved data from over 140 storm-surge sensors, and collected other essential environmental data, including more than 830 high-water marks mapping the extent and elevation of the storm surge. Post-storm lidar surveys documented storm impacts to coastal barriers informing response and recovery and providing a new baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The USGS Hazard Data Distribution System served storm related information from many agencies on the Internet on a daily basis. This science plan was developed immediately following Hurricane Sandy to coordinate continuing USGS activities with other agencies and to guide continued data collection and analysis to ensure support for recovery and restoration efforts. The data, information, and tools that are produced by implementing this plan will: (1) further characterize impacts and changes, (2) guide mitigation and restoration of impacted communities and ecosystems, (3) inform a redevelopment strategy aimed at developing resilient coastal communities and ecosystems, (4) improve preparedness and responsiveness to the next hurricane or similar coastal disaster, and (5) enable improved hazard assessment, response, and recovery for future storms along the hurricane prone shoreline of the United States. The activities outlined in this plan are organized in five themes based on impact types and information needs. These USGS science themes are: Theme 1: Coastal topography and bathymetry. Theme 2: Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers. Theme 3: Impacts of storm surge and estuarine and bay hydrology. Theme 4: Impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures. Theme 5: Impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife. A major emphasis in the implementation of this plan will be on interacting with stakeholders to better understand their specific data and information needs, to define the best way to make information available, and to support applications of USGS science and expertise to decisionmaking.

Connecticut;Delaware;Maine;Maryl;Massachusetts;New↗
USGS2015

Changing arctic ecosystems—What is causing the rapid increase of snow geese in northern Alaska?

Through the Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) informs key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is a key study area within the USGS CAE initiative. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past decades, leading to decreased sea ice, permafrost thaw, and an advancement of spring phenology. The number of birds on the ACP also is changing, marked by increased populations of the four species of geese that nest in the region. The Snow Goose ( Chen caerulescens ) is the most rapidly increasing of these species. USGS CAE research is quantifying these changes and their implications for management agencies.

Alaska↗