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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Reviews and syntheses: Variable inundation across Earth's terrestrial ecosystems

The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal scales of variable inundation are vast, ranging from sub-meter to whole landscapes and from sub-hourly to multi-decadal. The broad range of system types and scales makes it challenging to predict the hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical evolution of VIEs. Despite all experiencing the loss and gain of an overlying water column, VIEs are rarely considered together in conceptual, theoretical, modeling, or measurement frameworks and approaches. Studying VIEs together has the potential to generate mechanistic understanding that is transferable across a much broader range of environmental conditions, relative to knowledge generated by studying any one VIE type. We postulate that enhanced transferability will be important for predicting changes in VIE function in response to global change. Here we aim to catalyze cross-VIE science that studies drivers and impacts of variable inundation across Earth's VIEs. To this end, we complement expert mini-reviews of eight major VIE systems with overviews of VIE-relevant methods and challenges associated with scale. We conclude with perspectives on how cross-VIE science can derive transferable understanding via unifying conceptual models in which the impacts of variable inundation are studied across multi-dimensional environmental space.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2026

A cross-site comparison of ecosystem- and plot-scale methane fluxes across multiple sites

Wetland and upland ecosystems play significant but opposing roles in the global methane (CH 4 ) budget, acting as natural sources and sinks, respectively. Two of the most common approaches for measuring CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) are chambers, which measure fluxes at fine spatial scales (ca. 1 m 2 ), and eddy covariance (EC) towers, which integrate fluxes across larger footprints (ca. 100–10 000 m 2 ). Although chamber and EC observations have been combined in various syntheses and databases to estimate CH 4 budgets, a unified cross-site evaluation of FCH 4 estimates at plot and ecosystem scales is lacking. As a first step toward a systematic spatiotemporal scaling of EC tower and chamber footprints, we quantified differences in site-level aggregate FCH 4 between EC and chamber measurements ( Δ FCH 4 ) across ten wetland and upland sites at half-hourly, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual timescales. We found that ecosystem-scale median FCH 4 was consistently higher than plot-scale FCH 4 at all temporal scales, with the smallest difference at the daily timescale (multi-site median Δ FCH 4 : 1.36 nmol m −2 s −1 ; median ecosystem-scale FCH 4 = 1.56 nmol m −2 s −1 , median plot-scale FCH 4 = 0.06 nmol m −2 s −1 ) and the largest at annual scales (2.58 nmol m −2 s −1 ; median ecosystem-scale FCH 4 = 25.91 nmol m −2 s −1 , median plot-scale FCH 4 = 6.55 nmol m −2 s −1 ). In general, the agreement between ecosystem- and plot-scale FCH 4 decreased with finer temporal resolution (from Spearman ρ = 0.95 at the annual scale to ρ = 0.65 at the half-hourly scale), while Δ FCH 4 variation was greatest at daily-to-annual scales. Key environmental predictors of Δ FCH 4 across the ten sites included plot-scale spatial heterogeneity, dominant vegetation type, vapor pressure deficit, atmospheric pressure, and friction velocity at the daily and monthly scales. Wind direction was a significant predictor only at the monthly scale, suggesting EC footprint effects at these sites. These findings suggest that accounting for variability in EC footprint extent, chamber measurement placement, and measurement artifacts is key to reconciling multi-scale FCH 4 observations across diverse ecosystems and refining CH 4 budgets.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2026

Sea-level rise in a coastal marsh: Linking increasing tidal inundation, decreasing soil strength and increasing pond expansion

Coastal marsh conversion into ponds, which may be triggered by sea-level rise, is considered an important driver of marsh loss and their valuable ecosystem services. Previous studies have focused on the role of wind waves in driving the expansion of interior marsh ponds, through lateral erosion of marsh edges surrounding the ponds. Here, we propose another mechanism between sea-level rise, increasing marsh inundation, and decreasing marsh soil strength (approximated here as resistance to shear and penetration stress), that further contributes to marsh erosion and pond expansion. Our field measurements in the Blackwater marshes (Maryland, USA), a microtidal marsh system with organic-rich soils, indicate that (1) an increase in tidal inundation time of the marsh surface above a certain threshold (around 50 % of the time) is associated with a substantial loss of strength of the surficial soils; and (2) this decrease in soil strength is strongly related to the amount of belowground vegetation biomass, which is also found to decrease with increasing tidal inundation at pond bottoms, where the soil has a very low strength. Our finding of decreasing marsh soil strength along a spatial gradient of increasing marsh inundation coincides with a gradient of increasing historical marsh loss by pond expansion, suggesting that feedbacks between sea-level rise, increasing marsh inundation and decreasing marsh soil strength combine to amplify marsh erosion and pond expansion.

Maryland↗
USGS2026

Carbon sequestration along a gradient of tidal marsh degradation in response to sea level rise

Tidal marshes are considered one of the world's most efficient ecosystems for belowground organic carbon sequestration and hence climate mitigation. Marsh systems are however also vulnerable to degradation due to climate-induced sea level rise, whereby marsh vegetation conversion to open water often follows distinct spatial patterns: levees (i.e. marsh zones < 10 m from tidal creeks) show lower vulnerability of vegetation conversion to open water than basins (i.e. interior marsh zones > 30 m from creeks). Here, we use sediment cores to investigate spatial variations in organic carbon accumulation rates (OCAR) in a microtidal system (Blackwater marshes, Maryland, USA): (1) across a gradient of marsh zones with increasing marsh degradation, assessed as increasing ratio of unvegetated versus vegetated marsh area and (2) by comparing levees versus basins. We show that OCAR is up to four times higher on marsh levees than in adjacent basins. The data suggest that this is caused by spatial variation in three processes: sediment accretion rate, vegetation productivity, and sediment compaction, which are all higher on levees. Additionally, OCAR was observed to increase with increasing degree of marsh degradation in response to sea level rise. We hypothesize this may be due to more soil waterlogging in more degraded marsh zones, which may decrease carbon decomposition. Our results highlight that tidal marsh levees, in a microtidal system, are among the fastest soil organic carbon sequestration systems on Earth, and that both levees and basins sustain their carbon accumulation rate along gradients of increasing marsh degradation in response to sea level rise.

Maryland↗
USGS2006

CO32- concentration and pCO2 thresholds for calcification and dissolution on the Molokai reef flat, Hawaii

The severity of the impact of elevated atmospheric pCO2 to coral reef ecosystems depends, in part, on how sea-water pCO2 affects the balance between calcification and dissolution of carbonate sediments. Presently, there are insufficient published data that relate concentrations of pCO 2 and CO32- to in situ rates of reef calcification in natural settings to accurately predict the impact of elevated atmospheric pCO2 on calcification and dissolution processes. Rates of net calcification and dissolution, CO32- concentrations, and pCO2 were measured, in situ, on patch reefs, bare sand, and coral rubble on the Molokai reef flat in Hawaii. Rates of calcification ranged from 0.03 to 2.30 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1 and dissolution ranged from -0.05 to -3.3 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1. Calcification and dissolution varied diurnally with net calcification primarily occurring during the day and net dissolution occurring at night. These data were used to calculate threshold values for pCO2 and CO32- at which rates of calcification and dissolution are equivalent. Results indicate that calcification and dissolution are linearly correlated with both CO32- and pCO2. Threshold pCO2 and CO32- values for individual substrate types showed considerable variation. The average pCO2 threshold value for all substrate types was 654??195 ??atm and ranged from 467 to 1003 ??atm. The average CO32- threshold value was 152??24 ??mol kg-1, ranging from 113 to 184 ??mol kg-1. Ambient seawater measurements of pCO2 and CO32- indicate that CO32- and pCO2 threshold values for all substrate types were both exceeded, simultaneously, 13% of the time at present day atmospheric pCO2 concentrations. It is predicted that atmospheric pCO2 will exceed the average pCO2 threshold value for calcification and dissolution on the Molokai reef flat by the year 2100.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2008

Wetland succession in a permafrost collapse: Interactions between fire and thermokarst

To determine the influence of fire and thermokarst in a boreal landscape, we investigated peat cores within and adjacent to a permafrost collapse feature on the Tanana River Floodplain of Interior Alaska. Radioisotope dating, diatom assemblages, plant macrofossils, charcoal fragments, and carbon and nitrogen content of the peat profile indicate ???600 years of vegetation succession with a transition from a terrestrial forest to a sedge-dominated wetland over 100 years ago, and to a Sphagnum-dominated peatland in approximately 1970. The shift from sedge to Sphagnum, and a decrease in the detrended tree-ring width index of black spruce trees adjacent to the collapse coincided with an increase in the growing season temperature record from Fairbanks. This concurrent wetland succession and reduced growth of black spruce trees indicates a step-wise ecosystem-level response to a change in regional climate. In 2001, fire was observed coincident with permafrost collapse and resulted in lateral expansion of the peatland. These observations and the peat profile suggest that future warming and/or increased fire disturbance could promote permafrost degradation, peatland expansion, and increase carbon storage across this landscape; however, the development of drought conditions could reduce the success of both black spruce and Sphagnum, and potentially decrease the long-term ecosystem carbon storage.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2009

Ignoring detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use overestimates regional terrestrial carbon sequestration

Land use change is critical in determining the distribution, magnitude and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon budgets at the local to global scales. To date, almost all regional to global carbon cycle studies are driven by a static land use map or land use change statistics with decadal time intervals. The biases in quantifying carbon exchange between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere caused by using such land use change information have not been investigated. Here, we used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS), along with consistent and spatially explicit land use change scenarios with different intervals (1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs and static, respectively), to evaluate the impacts of land use change data frequency on estimating regional carbon sequestration in the southeastern United States. Our results indicate that ignoring the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use can lead to a significant overestimation of carbon uptake by the terrestrial ecosystem. Regional carbon sequestration increased from 0.27 to 0.69, 0.80 and 0.97 Mg C ha −1 yr −1 when land use change data frequency shifting from 1 year to 5 years, 10 years interval and static land use information, respectively. Carbon removal by forest harvesting and prolonged cumulative impacts of historical land use change on carbon cycle accounted for the differences in carbon sequestration between static and dynamic land use change scenarios. The results suggest that it is critical to incorporate the detailed dynamics of land use change into local to global carbon cycle studies. Otherwise, it is impossible to accurately quantify the geographic distributions, magnitudes, and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon sequestration at the local to global scales.

Alabama, Georgia↗
USGS2009

Net Loss of CaCO3 from a subtropical calcifying community due to seawater acidification: Mesocosm-scale experimental evidence

Acidification of seawater owing to oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO 2 originating from human activities such as burning of fossil fuels and land-use changes has raised serious concerns regarding its adverse effects on corals and calcifying communities. Here we demonstrate a net loss of calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) material as a result of decreased calcification and increased carbonate dissolution from replicated subtropical coral reef communities (N=3) incubated in continuous-flow mesocosms subject to future seawater conditions. The calcifying community was dominated by the coral Montipora capitata. Daily average community calcification or Net Ecosystem Calcification (NECC=CaCO 3 production - dissolution) was positive at 3.3 mmol CaCO 3 m -2 h -1 under ambient seawater pCO 2 conditions as opposed to negative at -0.04 mmol CaCO 3 m -2 h -1 under seawater conditions of double the ambient pCO 2 . These experimental results provide support for the conclusion that some net calcifying communities could become subject to net dissolution in response to anthropogenic ocean acidification within this century. Nevertheless, individual corals remained healthy, actively calcified (albeit slower than at present rates), and deposited significant amounts of CaCO 3 under the prevailing experimental seawater conditions of elevated pCO 2 .

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2009

Historical and simulated ecosystem carbon dynamics in Ghana: Land use, management, and climate

We used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) to simulate responses of natural and managed ecosystems to changes in land use and land cover, management, and climate for a forest/savanna transitional zone in central Ghana. Model results show that deforestation for crop production during the 20th century resulted in a substantial reduction in ecosystem carbon (C) stock from 135.4 Mg C ha −1 in 1900 to 77.0 Mg C ha −1 in 2000, and in soil organic C stock within the top 20 cm of soil from 26.6 Mg C ha −1 to 21.2 Mg C ha −1 . If no land use change takes place from 2000 through 2100, low and high climate change scenarios (increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation over time) will result in losses of soil organic C stock by 16% and 20%, respectively. A low nitrogen (N) fertilization rate is the principal constraint on current crop production. An increase in N fertilization under the low climate change scenario would lead to an increase in the average crop yield by 21% with 30 kg N ha −1 and by 42% with 60 kg N ha −1 (varying with crop species), accordingly, the average soil C stock would decrease by 2% and increase by 17%, in all cropping systems by 2100. The results suggest that a reasonable N fertilization rate is critical to achieve food security and agricultural sustainability in the study area through the 21st century. Adaptation strategies for climate change in this study area require national plans to support policies and practices that provide adequate N fertilizers to sustain soil C and crop yields and to consider high temperature tolerant crop species if these temperature projections are exceeded.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2010

Impacts of exotic mangrove forests and mangrove deforestation on carbon remineralization and ecosystem functioning in marine sediments

To evaluate how mangrove invasion and removal can modify short-term benthic carbon cycling and ecosystem functioning, we used stable-isotopically labeled algae as a deliberate tracer to quantify benthic respiration and C-flow over 48 h through macrofauna and bacteria in sediments collected from (1) an invasive mangrove forest, (2) deforested mangrove sites 2 and 6 years after removal of above-sediment mangrove biomass, and (3) two mangrove-free control sites in the Hawaiian coastal zone. Sediment oxygen consumption (SOC) rates averaged over each 48 h investigation were significantly greater in the mangrove and mangrove removal site experiments than in controls and were significantly correlated with total benthic (macrofauna and bacteria) biomass and sedimentary mangrove biomass (SMB). Bacteria dominated short-term C-processing of added microalgal-C and benthic biomass in sediments from the invasive mangrove forest habitat and in the 6-yr removal site. In contrast, macrofauna were the most important agents in the short-term processing of microalgal-C in sediments from the 2-yr mangrove removal site and control sites. However, mean faunal abundance and C-uptake rates in sediments from both removal sites were significantly higher than in control cores, which collectively suggest that community structure and short-term C-cycling dynamics of sediments in habitats where mangroves have been cleared can remain fundamentally different from un-invaded mudflat sediments for at least 6-yrs following above-sediment mangrove removal. In summary, invasion by mangroves can lead to dramatic shifts in benthic ecosystem function, with sediment metabolism, benthic community structure and short-term C-remineralization dynamics being affected for years following invader removal.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2010

A spatial resolution threshold of land cover in estimating terrestrial carbon sequestration in four counties in Georgia and Alabama, USA

Changes in carbon density (i.e., carbon stock per unit area) and land cover greatly affect carbon sequestration. Previous studies have shown that land cover change detection strongly depends on spatial scale. However, the influence of the spatial resolution of land cover change information on the estimated terrestrial carbon sequestration is not known. Here, we quantified and evaluated the impact of land cover change databases at various spatial resolutions (250 m, 500 m, 1 km, 2 km, and 4 km) on the magnitude and spatial patterns of regional carbon sequestration in four counties in Georgia and Alabama using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Results indicated a threshold of 1 km in the land cover change databases and in the estimated regional terrestrial carbon sequestration. Beyond this threshold, significant biases occurred in the estimation of terrestrial carbon sequestration, its interannual variability, and spatial patterns. In addition, the overriding impact of interannual climate variability on the temporal change of regional carbon sequestration was unrealistically overshadowed by the impact of land cover change beyond the threshold. The implications of these findings directly challenge current continental- to global-scale carbon modeling efforts relying on information at coarse spatial resolution without incorporating fine-scale land cover dynamics.

Alabama;Georgia↗
USGS2011

Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth) and fire severity. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to explore the combined effects of fire-soil moisture interactions and snow seasonality on OC storage. OC losses were calculated as the difference in OC stocks after three fire cycles (~500 yr) following a prescribed step-change in climate and/or fire. Across single-factor scenarios, our findings indicate that warmer air temperatures resulted in the largest relative soil OC losses (~5.3 kg C m −2 ), whereas dry soil conditions alone (in the absence of wildfire) resulted in the smallest carbon losses (~0.1 kg C m −2 ). Increased fire severity resulted in carbon loss of ~3.3 kg C m −2 , whereas changes in snow depth resulted in smaller OC losses (2.1–2.2 kg C m −2 ). Across multiple climate factors, we observed larger OC losses than for single-factor scenarios. For instance, high fire severity regime associated with warmer and drier conditions resulted in OC losses of ~6.1 kg C m −2 , whereas a low fire severity regime associated with warmer and wetter conditions resulted in OC losses of ~5.6 kg C m −2 . A longer snow-free season associated with future warming resulted in OC losses of ~5.4 kg C m −2 . Soil climate was the dominant control on soil OC loss, governing the sensitivity of microbial decomposers to fluctuations in temperature and soil moisture; this control, in turn, is governed by interannual changes in active layer depth. Transitional responses of the active layer depth to fire regimes also contributed to OC losses, primarily by determining the proportion of OC into frozen and unfrozen soil layers.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2011

Labile Fe(II) concentrations in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean along a transect from the subtropical domain to the Weddell Sea Gyre

Labile Fe(II) distributions were investigated in the Sub-Tropical South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean during the BONUS-GoodHope cruise from 34 to 57° S (February–March 2008). Concentrations ranged from below the detection limit (0.009 nM) to values as high as 0.125 nM. In the surface mixed layer, labile Fe(II) concentrations were always higher than the detection limit, with values higher than 0.060 nM south of 47° S, representing between 39 % and 63 % of dissolved Fe (DFe). Apparent biological production of Fe(II) was evidenced. At intermediate depth, local maxima were observed, with the highest values in the Sub-Tropical domain at around 200 m, and represented more than 70 % of DFe. Remineralization processes were likely responsible for those sub-surface maxima. Below 1500 m, concentrations were close to or below the detection limit, except at two stations (at the vicinity of the Agulhas ridge and in the north of the Weddell Sea Gyre) where values remained as high as ~0.030–0.050 nM. Hydrothermal or sediment inputs may provide Fe(II) to these deep waters. Fe(II) half life times ( t 1/2 ) at 4°C were measured in the upper and deep waters and ranged from 2.9 to 11.3 min, and from 10.0 to 72.3 min, respectively. Measured values compared quite well in the upper waters with theoretical values from two published models, but not in the deep waters. This may be due to the lack of knowledge for some parameters in the models and/or to organic complexation of Fe(II) that impact its oxidation rates. This study helped to considerably increase the Fe(II) data set in the Ocean and to better understand the Fe redox cycle.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2011

Aeolian nutrient fluxes following wildfire in sagebrush steppe: Implications for soil carbon storage

Pulses of aeolian transport following fire can profoundly affect the biogeochemical cycling of nutrients in semi-arid and arid ecosystems. Our objective was to determine horizontal nutrient fluxes occurring in the saltation zone during an episodic pulse of aeolian transport that occurred following a wildfire in a semi-arid sagebrush steppe ecosystem in southern Idaho, USA. We also examined how temporal trends in nutrient fluxes were affected by changes in particle sizes of eroded mass as well as nutrient concentrations associated with different particle size classes. In the burned area, total carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes were as high as 235 g C m????'1 d????'1 and 19 g N m????'1 d????'1 during the first few months following fire, whereas C and N fluxes were negligible in an adjacent unburned area throughout the study. Temporal variation in C and N fluxes following fire was largely attributable to the redistribution of saltation-sized particles. Total N and organic C concentrations in the soil surface were significantly lower in the burned relative to the unburned area one year after fire. Our results show how an episodic pulse of aeolian transport following fire can affect the spatial distribution of soil C and N, which, in turn, can have important implications for soil C storage. These findings demonstrate how an ecological disturbance can exacerbate a geomorphic process and highlight the need for further research to better understand the role aeolian transport plays in the biogeochemical cycling of C and N in recently burned landscapes. ?? Author(s) 2011. CC Attribution 3.0 License.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2011

Amplification and dampening of soil respiration by changes in temperature variability

Accelerated release of carbon from soils is one of the most important feed backs related to anthropogenically induced climate change. Studies addressing the mechanisms for soil carbon release through organic matter decomposition have focused on the effect of changes in the average temperature, with little attention to changes in temperature vari-ability. Anthropogenic activities are likely to modify both the average state and the variability of the climatic system; therefore, the effects of future warming on decomposition should not only focus on trends in the average temperature, but also variability expressed as a change of the probability distribution of temperature.Using analytical and numerical analyses we tested common relationships between temperature and respiration and found that the variability of temperature plays an important role determining respiration rates of soil organic matter. Changes in temperature variability, without changes in the average temperature, can affect the amount of carbon released through respiration over the long term. Furthermore, simultaneous changes in the average and variance of temperature can either amplify or dampen there release of carbon through soil respiration as climate regimes change. The effects depend on the degree of convexity of the relationship between temperature and respiration and the magnitude of the change in temperature variance. A potential consequence of this effect of variability would be higher respiration in regions where both the mean and variance of temperature are expected to increase, such as in some low latitude regions; and lower amounts of respiration where the average temperature is expected to increase and the variance to decrease, such as in northern high latitudes.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2011

Enhanced decomposition offsets enhanced productivity and soil carbon accumulation in coastal wetlands responding to climate change

Coastal wetlands are responsible for about half of all carbon burial in oceans, and their persistence as a valuable ecosystem depends largely on the ability to accumulate organic material at rates equivalent to relative sea level rise. Recent work suggests that elevated CO 2 and temperature warming will increase organic matter productivity and the ability of marshes to survive sea level rise. However, we find in a series of preliminary experiments that organic decomposition rates increase by about 20% per degree of warming. Our measured temperature sensitivity is similar to studies from terrestrial systems, three times as high as the response of salt marsh productivity to temperature warming, and greater than the productivity response associated with elevated CO 2 in C 3 marsh plants. Although the experiments were simple and of short duration, they suggest that enhanced CO 2 and warmer temperatures could actually make marshes less resilient to sea level rise, and tend to promote a release of soil carbon. Simple projections indicate that elevated temperatures will increase rates of sea level rise more than any acceleration in organic matter accumulation, suggesting the possibility of a positive feedback between climate, sea level rise, and carbon emissions in coastal environments.

Virginia↗
USGS2012

Sensitivity analysis of the GEMS soil organic carbon model to land cover land use classification uncertainties under different climate scenarios in Senegal

Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU) change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SOC modeled by the Global Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). The GEMS was run for an area of 1560 km 2 in Senegal under three climate change scenarios with LCLU maps generated using different Landsat classification approaches. This research provides a method to estimate the variability of SOC, specifically the SOC uncertainty due to satellite classification errors, which we show is dependent not only on the LCLU classification errors but also on where the LCLU classes occur relative to the other GEMS model inputs.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2013

Simulated impacts of mountain pine beetle and wildfire disturbances on forest vegetation composition and carbon stocks in the Southern Rocky Mountains

Forests play an important role in sequestering carbon and offsetting anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, but changing disturbance regimes may compromise the capability of forests to store carbon. In the Southern Rocky Mountains, a recent outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; MPB) has caused levels of tree mortality that are unprecedented in recorded history. To evaluate the long-term impacts of both this insect outbreak and another characteristic disturbance in these forests, high-severity wildfire, we simulated potential changes in species composition and carbon stocks using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). Simulations were completed for 3 scenarios (no disturbance, actual MPB infestation, and modeled wildfire) using field data collected in 2010 at 97 plots in the lodgepole pine-dominated forests of eastern Grand County, Colorado, which were heavily impacted by MPB after 2002. Results of the simulations showed that (1) lodgepole pine remained dominant over time in all scenarios, with basal area recovering to pre-disturbance levels 70–80 yr after disturbance; (2) wildfire caused a greater magnitude of change than did MPB in both patterns of succession and distribution of carbon among biomass pools; (3) levels of standing-live carbon returned to pre-disturbance conditions after 40 vs. 50 yr following MPB vs. wildfire disturbance, respectively, but took 120 vs. 150 yr to converge with conditions in the undisturbed scenario. Lodgepole pine forests appear to be relatively resilient to both of the disturbances we modeled, although changes in climate, future disturbance regimes, and other factors may significantly affect future rates of regeneration and ecosystem response.

Biogeosciences Discussions↗