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USGS2024

Development of USGS NSHMs: Do small changes in hazard imply small changes in risk?

One of the flagship products from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Since 1976, the NSHM has been periodically updated to reflect newly published earthquake science and provide probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard for the United States. During each update cycle, alternative models are deliberated, analyzed, and documented through logic trees and their corresponding logic tree branch weights. For example, the decision to modify a logic tree branch weight may be influenced by sensitivity analyses of the logic tree branches in their effects on the mean hazard. However, do small changes in traditional measures of hazard imply small changes in risk? In this study, we make use of two update cycles of the USGS NSHMs and a National Bridge Inventory (NBI) from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to explore the preceding question. Specifically, we first identify geographic locations in the conterminous United States in which the change in hazard from one cycle to another is relatively small. Next, we model the seismic risk to highway bridges for these locations and for each update cycle, while simultaneously distinguishing low hazard environments from high hazard environments. These data enable quantitative analysis of how much changes in risk can be expected given small changes in hazard, investigating the importance of risk models in decision-making during development of the USGS NSHMs.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2026

Efficient physics‐informed ground‐motion simulations with reduced‐order models: CyberShake implications and high‐resolution site terms for southern San Andreas fault earthquakes

Recent advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) leverage physics‐based ground‐motion simulations to estimate seismic hazard, such as the CyberShake project. However, computational costs quickly escalate when performing PSHA for numerous faults or sites and can become prohibitively expensive. To reduce computational demands, CyberShake uses reciprocity and interpolates physics‐informed corrections from simulations conducted at fewer locations, but the accuracy of these interpolations remains poorly quantified. To quantify the interpolation accuracy, we derive high‐resolution, frequency‐dependent site terms for southern California and compare them with interpolated site terms using the CyberShake approach. We accomplish this by performing a set of earthquake point‐source simulations distributed along the nonplanar fault geometry for the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) extending from Bombay Beach to Lake Hughes. Using SeisSol, we simulate three minutes of viscoelastic seismic wave propagation for these sources and store the horizontal‐component Green’s functions for 480,000 sites. We then use a scientific machine learning approach based on interpolated proper orthogonal decomposition to construct an accurate reduced‐order model of the Green’s functions to efficiently predict effective amplitude spectra (EAS) for finite‐source rupture models of SSAF earthquakes. Using minimum curvature interpolation with tension, as used in CyberShake, we compare the interpolated site terms against our high‐resolution site terms. We identify local discrepancies with EAS differing by up to a factor of approximately three. Furthermore, we identify locations where unexpectedly high or low ground motions are missed when using the interpolated dataset for these earthquakes. We estimate that our approach may be used within CyberShake to reduce the time‐to‐solution by a factor of 336 for the entire earthquake rupture forecast. Our analysis of physics‐based site terms provides more insight into the seismic hazard due to SSAF ruptures and guides future developments by combining high‐performance computing and reduced‐order modeling techniques for PSHA.

California↗

USGS2023

The Saudi Geological Survey-U.S. Geological Survey northern Harrat Rahat project—Styles, rates, causes, and hazards of volcanism near Al Madīnah al Munawwarah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Active volcanic systems pose serious hazards to people and property including inundation and incineration by lava, blanketing by tephra (volcanic ash), exposure to noxious volcanic gases, and damage from shallow earthquakes triggered by ascending molten material (magma). To improve understanding of volcanism and associated seismicity on the western Arabia Plate, the Saudi Geological Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a multi-year investigation of the northern Harrat Rahat volcanic field adjacent to the city of Al Madīnah al Munawwarah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Project components included creation of a high-resolution digital topographic base; interpretation of eruptive history supported by detailed geologic mapping, paleomagnetism, and abundant high-precision geochronology of volcanic deposits; assessments of eruptive styles and volcanic hazards by physical volcanology; investigation of the origins of magmas in the mantle and of their differentiation in the crust revealed by chemical and isotopic petrology; gravity and magnetotelluric surveys to reveal crustal structures and to search for magma reservoirs; and regional and local seismic tomography and analyses of seismic hazards. Project results are presented in this Professional Paper as chapters written for technical scientific audiences. This initial chapter introduces the project and briefly summarizes results in plain language for readers who have more general backgrounds.

Al Madīnah al Munawwarah↗

USGS2025

Observing northern high-latitude river systems to understand changes in a warming Arctic

Purpose of Review Streams and rivers are undergoing rapid change as the Arctic warms and thaws. We review recent observations in Arctic stream systems to identify ubiquitous changes and the most useful tools for observing change and exploring the underlying processes. Recent Findings Recent literature indicates increasingly significant trends in river hydrology and chemistry due to persistent warming in the Arctic and longer observational records for analysis. However, regional differences in the magnitude and direction of these trends persist. We also observe thresholds in ground thaw and surface–groundwater interactions that can impact river hydrology and chemistry. Summary Warming and thaw are occurring rapidly at high latitudes, resulting in increasing, yet variable responses in stream systems across regions and scales. These differences highlight the need for long-term records and an interdisciplinary approach to explain trends and predict future states. Stream systems respond to multiple landscape changes related to hydrology (changing precipitation and subsurface flow), geology (ground thaw dynamics), and ecology (vegetation change).

Current Climate Change Reports↗

USGS2024

Geophysical constraints on continental rejuvenation in central China: Implications for outward growth of the Tibetan Plateau

Continental rejuvenation results from the tectonic reactivation of crustal structures and lithospheric reworking by mantle flow. Geochemical observations and field mapping have traditionally provided the primary evidence for the secular evolution of crustal composition and tectonic processes during continental rejuvenation. Nonetheless, the impact of continental rejuvenation on the observed present-day strain rate and orogenic-scale lithospheric structure has not been well constrained. The pre-existing E-W–trending Central China Orogenic Belt has been overprinted by the N-S–trending Central Longitudinal Seismic Belt and constitutes the intracontinental West Qinling Syntaxis in central China, where the tectonic setting changes eastward from contraction to extension. Combining updated global positioning system data and high-resolution crustal seismic tomography, we reveal a modern continental rejuvenation process within the West Qinling Syntaxis in central China. The northward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau's weak lithospheric layer (middle-lower crust and lithospheric mantle) of southwestern China relative to the rigid Sichuan Basin/Ordos Block of the eastern West Qinling Syntaxis results in regional dextral shearing that shapes the Central Longitudinal Seismic Belt and defines the eastern Tibetan Plateau margin. The pre-existing E-W–trending Central China Orogenic Belt has been preserved above the brittle-ductile transition zone, and the northward movement of the deep lithospheric layer drives the deformation of the upper crust in the West Qinling Syntaxis. Our results, along with previous studies, suggest the presence of an intracontinental lithospheric interchange structure in central China. The continental rejuvenation of the West Qinling Syntaxis results from a combination of fault reactivation in the upper crust (Stage I, Eocene–Oligocene) and reworking of the deep lithosphere (Stage II, middle–late Miocene) related to the plateau-wide shift in stress accommodation ultimately driven by the redistribution of mass outward from the central Tibetan Plateau. At present, the transition zone between the high- and low-velocity anomalies along the Central Longitudinal Seismic Belt not only shapes the landscape boundary but controls the size and recurrence interval of earthquakes within the West Qinling Syntaxis in central China.

GSA Bulletin↗

USGS2025

Assessing earthquake risks to lifeline infrastructure systems in the United States

The security and economic stability of the United States rely heavily on robust lifeline infrastructure systems and yet the risks to such systems are seldom quantified at the national scale. For example, while earthquake risks to buildings in the United States have been investigated at the national scale regularly, such risks to gas pipelines have rarely been investigated nationally. In this paper, we use examples from two critical infrastructure sectors to demonstrate (1) the nature of earthquake risks to lifeline infrastructure systems, (2) complexities involved in regional seismic risk assessments, and (3) how such risks change with time. We found that bridge risks can be underestimated by at least 64 % when viewed from repair costs instead of traffic demands and that regional risks can be underestimated by 19 % when spatial correlations of ground motion are ignored. Further, exceedance of traffic demand can be 50 times more likely to occur when viewed at the regional scale than when viewed at an individual bridge. Similarly, exceedance of repairs can be 180 times more likely to occur when viewed at the pipeline network level than at a segment-specific level. Finally, sensitivity analyses with the 2018 and 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Models indicate an increase in bridge risk of at least 24 % and an increase in exposed gas pipeline mileage of 43 %. The evolution of risks, complexities involved in assessments, and limited resources jointly underscore the need for more routine updates to nationwide seismic risk assessments of lifeline systems in the United States.

International Journal of Critical Infrastructure P↗

USGS2026

Surface-wave relocation and characterization of the 2024–2025 dyking episode along the Fentale–Dofen segment of the Ethiopian rift

From late-December 2024 to mid-March 2025, a 50-km-long dyke intrusion triggered over 300 earthquakes (magnitude 4 to 5.9) between Fentale and Dofen volcanoes along the Northern Main Ethiopian Rift. Dyke intrusions periodically occur along the Fentale–Dofen magmatic segment and are an expression of ongoing rift extension. Preliminary analyses using interferometric synthetic aperture radar revealed extensive ground deformation (up to 60 cm), which closely matched the temporal and spatial evolution of surface manifestations and earthquake locations from global catalogues. While global catalogues are critical for real-time monitoring, the precision of locations in remote and or sparsely instrumented regions can be low. In this investigation, we present surface-wave relocation results of the dyking episode that began near Fentale volcano in December 2024. We estimate relative locations using differential traveltimes measured from regional-to-teleseismic distance surface-wave observations of earthquakes reported by the U.S. Geological Survey. Relative relocations reduce the initial region of diffuse seismicity to a 50-km-long narrow band bounding the strike of surface manifestations and the zone of maximum surface deformation. We demonstrate the precision of surface-wave relocations over incremental time periods, capturing the progression of dyking from seismic onset through seismic migration and caldera subsidence. Results showcase the utility of surface-wave relocations in the characterization of dyking episodes and provide complementary insights into the current understanding of the Fentale–Dofen volcanic plumbing system.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS1976

Effect of deicing chemicals on the hydrologic environment in Massachusetts; evaluation of surface-water data collection

The objective of this study is to develop predictive relationships that can be used to describe the impact of highway deicing salts on the hydrologic environment. A method, presented in an earlier report, for estimating yearly mean chloride concentrations from estimated or actual runoff and salt-application data was applied to the period 1971 through1974 and the results compared with yearly mean chloride concentrations computed from records of specific conductance. Estimates were found to be from minus 63 percent to plus 56 percent in error when the error was expressed as the difference between estimated and computed values as a percentage of the computed values. Chloride concentrations used in this study are computed from specific conductance/chloride concentration relationships and records of specific conductance. Preliminary results from graphic analyses and least-squares regression analysis show that relationships between measured values of specific conductance and chloride concentration have correlation coefficients ranging from 0.30 to 0.97. Analysis of streamflow for all major dissolved constituents is recommended with the purpose of attempting to describe the variations in the specific conductance/chloride concentration relationships.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2025

Induced earthquakes are generally not tidally triggered in Oklahoma and Kansas

Human-induced earthquakes occur along critically stressed faults as injected wastewater simultaneously heightens fluid pressure and pushes faults to failure. We investigate the possibility that small stresses imposed by Earth tides could trigger earthquakes in the induced seismicity region of Oklahoma and Kansas from 2011 to 2018. We decluster a catalog consisting of ∼110,000 earthquakes using three methods (Reasenberg, nearest-neighbor distance, and phase-bin). We find no significant tidal earthquake triggering using Schuster's p -value test for the declustered catalogs as a whole. We search for localized triggering using discretized space-time cells and find ∼0–6% of cells have significant tidal triggering which is close to what is randomly expected (5%) and indicates there is an insignificant amount of tidal triggering for the full study region. One area that has significant p -values across multiple time windows, ∼2014–2016 is ∼15 km from a region of large wastewater injection volume. It is possible that localized tidal triggering occurs for this time and area because faults remain critically stressed and are particularly susceptible to slip under the small stress load from the semidiurnal tide. Possible explanations for the lack of tidal triggering in our broader study are that the pre-seismic stressing rate in the earthquake nucleation area is faster than the tidal stressing rate (∼3 kPa/day), faults are not close enough to critically stressed to be affected by tidal forcing, and that nucleation occurs over longer periods than the tides considered in this study (∼1, ∼14 days). Fluid injection could be the source of a higher pre-seismic stress rate.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗

USGS2026

Making many out of one: Synthetic geologic deformation model distributions for use in USGS NSHM25‐PRVI Puerto Rico-U.S. Virgin Island update

A key use‐case of geologic slip rates is within deformation models used in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Field‐derived geologic slip rates have formed the cornerstone of deformation models in such applications for decades. Recent advancements in seismic hazard analyses have expanded the use of faults for which geologic slip rates are not well constrained using categorical slip rate estimates. Because of these advancements, application of a geologic deformation model for use in 2025 U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model Puerto Rico‐U.S. Virgin Islands (NSHM25‐PRVI) proved challenging due to: (1) a lack of field‐based geologic slip rates, and (2) a lack of epistemic uncertainty distributions within a broad range of estimated slip rates. Preliminary versions of the NSHM25‐PRVI model sampled these slip rate bins in a coincident manner along preferred and extreme value branches, which yielded untenable correlations in mean hazard results. To minimize the influence of correlated uncertainties amid these challenges, we develop a synthetic epistemic uncertainty distribution for deformation rate on each crustal fault. Each fault has a weighting schema across four possible distribution shapes: uniform, normal, triangular favoring local minima, and triangular favoring local maxima. The synthetic distributions are then sampled several times for each logic tree branch. The results provide a more realistic distribution of rates across the study region as compared with using correlated extrema sampling. This exploration of our method in a small region like PRVI can pave the way for larger‐scale, more complicated applications (e.g., western United States).

Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands↗

USGS2025

Geochemical evidence for the origin of late Quaternary loess, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Loess is the most widespread surficial deposit in the state of Alaska. Although loess of last glacial age is common in mid-continental North America, records of last glacial loess in Alaska have been elusive. Here we report a record of last glacial loess on the Seward Peninsula, along with studies of a transect of loess localities also thought to date to the last glacial period. Highly diverse hypotheses on the origin of loess on the Seward Peninsula include local volcanic rocks and mountain ranges to the north and south, as well as offshore deposits. We present particle size and mineralogical and geochemical data that indicate that the most likely sources for loess in this part of eastern Beringia are glaciogenic silt particles of the Kobuk River and Noatak River, both of which drain the Brooks Range to the northeast. Northeasterly paleowinds were therefore responsible for loess on the Seward Peninsula. Such winds probably occurred during late summer or early autumn, when river discharge was at a minimum but temperatures were still above freezing. Northeasterly winds during the last glacial period are in good agreement with a recent paleoclimate model.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Numerical modeling of Late Pleistocene to Holocene earthquake-induced progressive rock slope damage in the paraglacial Serpentine valley, Prince William Sound, Alaska

Landslides in deglaciating fjords pose a potential tsunami threat to nearby communities; however, processes contributing to long-term progressive rock damage and landslide conditioning remain poorly constrained in paraglacial settings. Here, we analyse the role of earthquake-induced rock mass damage over late Pleistocene to Holocene time scales, as a conditioning factor for modern landslides, using distinct element numerical modelling to assess spatial and temporal patterns of fracture propagation influenced by varying glacier thickness. Conceptualised numerical models were parameterised by in situ rock mass, glacial and topographic conditions in Serpentine valley, located in Prince William Sound, Alaska, where several large landslides are actively developing along the western valley wall. Results show that although rigid glacier buttressing reduces co-seismic rock mass damage, it does not suppress it completely, and damage occurs both above and below the glacier surface elevation. We demonstrate that topography, and especially steep slopes with topographic convexity, as well as preexisting damage of joint networks and faults inherited from tectonic and exhumation induced stresses, exert primary control on the location of new co-seismic damage. Simulations representing a simplified deglaciation sequence over the past 25 ka, with a series of 10 evenly spaced earthquakes, generated rock mass damage patterns that qualitatively match in situ landslide structural and kinematic observations at one instability in Serpentine valley. Our conceptual study helps clarify the role of repeated seismicity over glacial timescales as a long-term conditioning process for paraglacial rock slope failure, highlighting spatial and temporal patterns of progressive damage accumulation, with outcomes relevant for modern landslide hazard assessment.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Mapping the resistivity structure of Walker Ridge 313 in the Gulf of Mexico using the marine CSEM method

A marine controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) campaign was carried out in the Gulf of Mexico to further develop marine electromagnetic techniques in order to aid the detection and mapping of gas hydrate deposits. Marine CSEM methods are used to obtain an electrical resistivity structure of the subsurface which can indicate the type of substance filling the pore space, such as gas hydrates which are more resistive. Results from the Walker Ridge 313 study (WR 313) are presented in this paper and compared with the Gulf of Mexico Gas Hydrate Joint Industry Project II (JIP2) logging while drilling (LWD) results and available seismic data. The hydrate, known to exist within sheeted sand deposits, is mapped as a resistive region in the two dimensional (2D) CSEM inversion models. This is consistent with the JIP2 LWD resistivity results. CSEM inversions that use seismic horizons provide more realistic results compared to the unconstrained inversions by providing sharp boundaries and architectural control on the location of the resistive and conductive regions in the CSEM model. The seismic horizons include: 1) the base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ), 2) the top of salt, and 3) the top and bottom of a fine grained marine mud interval with near vertical hydrate filled fractures, to constrain the CSEM inversion model. The top of salt provides improved location for brines, water saturated salt, and resistive salt. Inversions of the CSEM data map the occurrence of a ‘halo’ of conductive brines above salt. The use of the BGHSZ as a constraint on the inversion helps distinguish between free gas and gas hydrate as well as gas hydrate and water saturated sediments.

Louisiana↗

USGS2025

The geology of Canadian potash: A critical mineral for feeding the world

Potash, potassium-bearing water-soluble salt, is the primary global economic source of potassium. Potash is recognized as a critical mineral in Canada as it is the largest source of potassium used in fertilizers. It is essential for global agricultural productivity and food security. Canada is the world’s largest potash exporter with vast deposits in the widely mined Prairie Evaporite of Saskatchewan, which formed in the epicontinental Elk Point Basin during the Middle Devonian. Potash is also found in the Windsor Group of Atlantic Canada where it formed in a series of tectonically active basins during the Mississippian that have undergone substantial post-depositional subsurface alteration and deformation. Potash deposits were mined in New Brunswick up until 2016. Both deposits are salt giants, recording times in the geologic record of extensive and long-lasting evaporite genesis under arid conditions in restricted seas. This paper reviews the geological and economic significance of Canadian potash, including (1) the genesis of each deposit, (2) diagenetic, erosional, and tectonic modification, and (3) exploration and mining in each basin. Underdeveloped regions, possible undiscovered resources, environmental considerations, and the importance of sustainable practices in light of climate change and socioeconomic risks are also addressed.

Facets↗

USGS2024

Collision structures of the Prince William terrane and Chugach terrane docking along the Shumagin and Unimak convergent margins, Alaska, USA

Western Alaska’s convergent margins are composed of tectonostratigraphic terranes. On land, terrane assembly is recognized along boundaries or sutures between neighboring geologic elements with distinctly different origins. In marine areas where rock outcrops are covered by sediment, recognizing terrane sutures is problematic. A fault in seismic dip line 5 of the ALEUT project has been interpreted as a terrane suture. It is imaged intermittently down to the 30+-km-deep plate interface. Processing of ALEUT strike line 7 revealed the suture at ~18 km depths extending 300 km along the margin. Upper structures in line 5 are like the structures of adjacent seismic transects where imaging is only 8−10 km deep. They were previously not recognized as the upper reaches of terrane sutures and show structural details obscured at greater depths. The composite data are the basis for a simple tectonic model of terrane docking.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

A northeast-dipping zone of low frequency earthquakes at the southern edge of Cascadia subduction

Tectonic tremor monitoring occasionally detects events in an anomalous zone in southern Cascadia, 50–100 km west of the main tremor band, near the expected southern edge of the subducting Gorda slab at the Mendocino triple junction. To investigate the geometry and temporal behavior of this tremor, we examine its constituent low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) by developing 27 stacked LFE waveform templates that we use to detect events from 2018 to 2024. We then relocate LFE sources together with regional seismicity. We find that LFE hypocenters form a northeast-dipping alignment at 22–29 km depth, extending eastward from a zone of micro-earthquakes, ∼15 km south of the southern edge of Gorda slab seismicity. These LFE families exhibit small bursts of activity every few days. Considering the strong world-wide association of tremor and LFEs with high slip-rate, plate-bounding faults, we hypothesize these LFEs may demark the southern edge of Cascadia subduction.

California↗

USGS2025

Ultralong, supershear rupture of the 2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay earthquake reveals unaccounted risk

The 28 March 2025 moment magnitude ( M w ) 7.7 earthquake in Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), ruptured 475 kilometers of the Sagaing Fault, which was more than twice the length predicted by magnitude scaling relationships. Kinematic slip models and observation of a Rayleigh Mach wave that passed through parts of Thailand confirmed that rupture occurred at supershear velocities of greater than 5 kilometers per second. The anomalous length exposed a vast population to violent near-fault shaking. The Mandalay earthquake is a modern analog for the M w 7.9 1906 San Francisco earthquake, another atypically long and fast rupture. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses use scaling relations that do not account for such long ruptures at moderate magnitudes. This limitation, in conjunction with a likely increased population and infrastructure exposure for atypically long ruptures, contributes to a potential mischaracterization of seismic risk.

Mandalay↗

USGS2025

Potential for continental scientific drilling to inform fault mechanics and earthquake science

Our understanding of fault mechanics and earthquake processes remains limited, largely due to minimal direct observations near active faults at seismogenic depths. This lack of data restricts our ability to accurately assess and mitigate both natural and human-induced seismic hazards. However, recent advancements in drilling capabilities and downhole sensing technologies offer an opportunity: the ability to observe the physical conditions within a volume near active fault zones. In this contribution, we highlight how scientific drilling can provide access to the near-fault environment, enabling measurements of the stress, temperature, fluid pressure, and rock properties at depths where ruptures initiate, propagate, and arrest. These observations are essential to refine models of earthquake nucleation and dynamic rupture, bridging gaps between laboratory experiments, numerical simulations, and surface observations. These insights can advance fundamental understanding in earthquake science but also support the development of more effective seismic hazard assessments and risk mitigation strategies.

Seismica↗