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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources

Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030

White-nose syndrome has been decimating populations of several bat species since its first occurrence in the Northeastern United States in the winter 2006–2007. The spread of the disease has been monitored across the continent through the collaboration of many organizations. Inferring the rate of spread of the disease and predicting its arrival at new locations is critical when assessing the current and predicting the future status and trends of bat species. We developed a model of disease spread that simultaneously achieves high-predictive performance, computational efficiency, and interpretability. We modeled white-nose syndrome spread using Gaussian process variations to infer the spread rate of the disease front, identify areas of anomalous time of arrival, and provide future forecasts of the expected time of arrival throughout North America. Cross-validation of model predictive performance identified a stationary Gaussian process without an additional residual error process as the best-supported model. Results indicated that white-nose syndrome is likely to spread throughout the entire continental United States by 2030. These annually updatable model predictions will be useful in determining the horizon over which disease management actions must take place as well as in status and trend assessments of disease-affected bats.

Ecology and Evolution

Understanding the future of big sagebrush regeneration: challenges of projecting complex ecological processes

Regeneration is an essential demographic step that affects plant population persistence, recovery after disturbances, and potential migration to track suitable climate conditions. Challenges of restoring big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) after disturbances including fire-invasive annual grass interactions exemplify the need to understand the complex regeneration processes of this long-lived, woody species that is widespread across the semiarid western U.S. Projected 21st century climate change is expected to increase drought risks and intensify restoration challenges. A detailed understanding of regeneration will be crucial for developing management frameworks for the big sagebrush region in the 21st century. Here, we used two complementary models to explore spatial and temporal relationships in the potential of big sagebrush regeneration representing (1) range-wide big sagebrush regeneration responses in natural vegetation (process-based model) and (2) big sagebrush restoration seeding outcomes following fire in the Great Basin and the Snake River Plains (regression-based model). The process-based model suggested substantial geographic variation in long-term regeneration trajectories with central and northern areas of the big sagebrush region remaining climatically suitable, whereas marginal and southern areas are becoming less suitable. The regression-based model suggested, however, that restoration seeding may become increasingly more difficult, illustrating the particularly difficult challenge of promoting sagebrush establishment after wildfire in invaded landscapes. These results suggest that sustaining big sagebrush on the landscape throughout the 21st century may climatically be feasible for many areas and that uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of big sagebrush may be driven more by dynamics of biological invasions and wildfire than by uncertainty in climate change projections. Divergent projections of the two models under 21st century climate conditions encourage further study to evaluate potential benefits of re-creating conditions of uninvaded, unburned natural big sagebrush vegetation for post-fire restoration seeding, such as seeding in multiple years and, for at least much of the northern Great Basin and Snake River Plains, the control of the fire-invasive annual grass cycle.

Ecosphere

Monitoring dynamic spatio-temporal ecological processes optimally

Population dynamics vary in space and time. Survey designs that ignore these dynamics may be inefficient and fail to capture essential spatio‐temporal variability of a process. Alternatively, dynamic survey designs explicitly incorporate knowledge of ecological processes, the associated uncertainty in those processes, and can be optimized with respect to monitoring objectives. We describe a cohesive framework for monitoring a spreading population that explicitly links animal movement models with survey design and monitoring objectives. We apply the framework to develop an optimal survey design for sea otters in Glacier Bay. Sea otters were first detected in Glacier Bay in 1988 and have since increased in both abundance and distribution; abundance estimates increased from 5 otters to >5,000 otters, and they have spread faster than 2.7 km/yr. By explicitly linking animal movement models and survey design, we are able to reduce uncertainty associated with forecasting occupancy, abundance, and distribution compared to other potential random designs. The framework we describe is general, and we outline steps to applying it to novel systems and taxa.

Ecology

Nonlinear reaction–diffusion process models improve inference for population dynamics

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are a useful tool for modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological processes. However, as an ecological process evolves, we need statistical models that can adapt to changing dynamics as new data are collected. We developed a model that combines an ecological diffusion equation and logistic growth to characterize colonization processes of a population that establishes long-term equilibrium over a heterogeneous environment. We also developed a homogenization strategy to statistically upscale the PDE for faster computation and adopted a hierarchical framework to accommodate multiple data sources collected at different spatial scales. We highlighted the advantages of using a logistic reaction component instead of a Malthusian component when population growth demonstrates asymptotic behavior. As a case study, we demonstrated that our model improves spatiotemporal abundance forecasts of sea otters in Glacier Bay, Alaska. Furthermore, we predicted spatially varying local equilibrium abundances as a result of environmentally driven diffusion and density-regulated growth. Integrating equilibrium abundances over the study area in our application enabled us to infer the overall carrying capacity of sea otters in Glacier Bay, Alaska.

Alaska

Integrating ecosystem metabolism and consumer allochthony reveals nonlinear drivers in lake organic matter processing

Lakes process both terrestrial and aquatic organic matter, and the relative contribution from each source is often measured via ecosystem metabolism and terrestrial resource use in the food web (i.e., consumer allochthony). Yet, ecosystem metabolism and consumer allochthony are rarely considered together, despite possible interactions and potential for them to respond to the same lake characteristics. In this study, we compiled global datasets of lake gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and zooplankton allochthony to compare the strength and shape of relationships with physicochemical characteristics across a broad set of lakes. GPP was positively related to total phosphorus (TP) in lakes with intermediate TP concentrations (11–75 μ g L −1 ) and was highest in lakes with intermediate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. While ER and GPP were strongly positively correlated, decoupling occurred at high DOC concentrations. Lastly, allochthony had a unimodal relationship with TP and related variably to DOC. By integrating metabolism and allochthony, we identified similar change points in GPP and zooplankton allochthony at intermediate DOC (4.5–10 mg L −1 ) and TP (8–20 μ g L −1 ) concentrations, indicating that allochthony and GPP may be coupled and inversely related. The ratio of DOC:nutrients also helped to identify conditions where lake organic matter processing responded more to autochthonous or allochthonous organic matter sources. As lakes globally face eutrophication and browning, predicting how lake organic matter processing will respond requires an updated paradigm that incorporates nonlinear dynamics and interactions.

Limnology and Oceanography

Temporal dynamics of biogeochemical processes at the Norman Landfill site

The temporal variability observed in redox sensitive species in groundwater can be attributed to coupled hydrological, geochemical, and microbial processes. These controlling processes are typically nonstationary, and distributed across various time scales. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate biogeochemical data sets from a municipal landfill site to identify the dominant modes of variation and determine the physical controls that become significant at different time scales. Data on hydraulic head, specific conductance, δ2H, chloride, sulfate, nitrate, and nonvolatile dissolved organic carbon were collected between 1998 and 2000 at three wells at the Norman Landfill site in Norman, OK. Wavelet analysis on this geochemical data set indicates that variations in concentrations of reactive and conservative solutes are strongly coupled to hydrologic variability (water table elevation and precipitation) at 8 month scales, and to individual eco-hydrogeologic framework (such as seasonality of vegetation, surface-groundwater dynamics) at 16 month scales. Apart from hydrologic variations, temporal variability in sulfate concentrations can be associated with different sources (FeS cycling, recharge events) and sinks (uptake by vegetation) depending on the well location and proximity to the leachate plume. Results suggest that nitrate concentrations show multiscale behavior across temporal scales for different well locations, and dominant variability in dissolved organic carbon for a closed municipal landfill can be larger than 2 years due to its decomposition and changing content. A conceptual framework that explains the variability in chemical concentrations at different time scales as a function of hydrologic processes, site-specific interactions, and/or coupled biogeochemical effects is also presented.

Oklahoma

Using transport model interpretations of tracer tests to study microbial processes in groundwater

It has long been known that microorganisms affect the geochemistry of groundwater. But despite this recognition, little detailed information is available regarding the rates and the factors controlling microbial processes in groundwater. Part of the reason stems from the relatively inaccessible nature of most groundwater and the difficulties encountered in obtaining representative samples of groundwater and subsurface sediments. At the same time, most groundwater systems are nutrient poor or oligotrophic environments in which the resident microorganisms are severely stressed and often nearly inactive. These populations are functioning so slowly that many types of activity measurements designed to assess microbial processes in more productive environments are ineffective for groundwater. However, because groundwater is by far the largest reservoir of freshwater in the world ( Freeze and Cherry 1979 ), our lack of knowledge about groundwater microorganisms and their processes represents a significant void in the study of microbial ecology and in our ability to predict the outcome when these reserves are compromised by contamination.

Book chapter

On the use of statistical analysis to understand submarine landslide processes and assess their hazard

Because of their inaccessibility, submarine landslides are typically studied individually and at great effort and expense to provide knowledge of the specific site conditions where these landslides occur. Statistical analysis of submarine landslide scars can offer generalized perspectives on the processes that initiate submarine landslides and can help toward hazard assessment in areas that have not been studied in detail. The following review discusses more than a decade of development of statistical approaches to studying submarine landslides. Landslides were previously viewed together with other natural hazards, such as earthquakes and fires, as a phenomenon whose size distribution obeys an inverse power law. Inverse power law distributions are the result of self-organized avalanche processes, in which the final hazard size cannot be predicted at the onset of the disturbance. We find that volume and area distributions of submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic continental slope and along nine other margins worldwide do not follow an inverse power law. Rigorous statistical tests of several different probability distribution models indicate that the lognormal model is most appropriate for these siliciclastic environments. Lognormal distributions can be simulated by assuming that the area of slope failure depends on earthquake magnitude, in other words, failure occurs simultaneously over the area affected by horizontal ground shaking and does not cascade from nucleating sources. Therefore, the maximum landslide size can be predicted from the earthquake magnitude and the distance from the rupturing fault. Moreover, earthquakes <~M4.5 cannot generate significant submarine landslides. We further demonstrate that empirical, offshore landslide hazard curves can be developed from these lognormal landslide size distributions, if the duration of mapped landslide activity is known. In addition to hazard estimation, scaling relationships can yield insights on the physical processes associated with landslide failure. For example, the log-log relationship between volume and area of landslide scars in siliciclastic margins is observed to be almost linear implying that most landslides are translational. Carbonate margins, in contrast, show a power-law distribution of scar volumes and their volume to area relationship is ~1.3. These results suggest that landslides in carbonate margins are governed by the random distributions of existing fissures, and they act like rock falls on land. Although earthquakes are the principal trigger of submarine landslides, the effects of earthquake frequency on slope stability can be counterintuitive. The average size of landslide scars decreases non-linearly with increasing frequency of earthquakes and increases with increasing sedimentation rate. The effect is interpreted as evidence for densification and shear strength increase of margin sediment, induced by repeated seismic shaking.

Book chapter

Assessment of canyon wall failure process from multibeam bathymetry and Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) observations, U.S. Atlantic continental margin

Over the last few years, canyons along the northern U.S. Atlantic continental margin have been the focus of intensive research examining canyon evolution, submarine geohazards, benthic ecology and deep-sea coral habitat. New high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) dives in the major shelf-breaching and minor slope canyons, provided the opportunity to investigate the size of, and processes responsible for, canyon wall failures. The canyons cut through thick Late Cretaceous to Recent mixed siliciclastic and carbonate-rich lithologies which impart a primary control on the style of failures observed. Broad-scale canyon morphology across much of the margin can be correlated to the exposed lithology. Near vertical walls, sedimented benches, talus slopes, and canyon floor debris aprons were present in most canyons. The extent of these features depends on canyon wall cohesion and level of internal fracturing, and resistance to biological and chemical erosion. Evidence of brittle failure over different spatial and temporal scales, physical abrasion by downslope moving flows, and bioerosion, in the form of burrows and surficial scrape marks provide insight into the modification processes active in these canyons. The presence of sessile fauna, including long-lived, slow growing corals and sponges, on canyon walls, especially those affected by failure provide a critical, but as yet, poorly understood chronological record of geologic processes within these systems.

Book chapter

Processing and attenuation of noise in deep seismic-reflection data from the Gulf of Maine

The U.S. Geological Survey deep crustal studies reflection profile across the Gulf of Maine off southeastern New England was affected by three sources of noise: side-scattered noise, multiples, and 20-Hz whale sounds. The special processing most effective in minimizing this noise consisted of a combination of frequency-wavenumber (F-K) filtering, predictive deconvolution, and spectral whitening, each applied in the shot domain (prestack). Application of the F-K filter to remove side-scatter noise in the poststack domain resulted in a much poorer quality profile. The prestack noise suppression processing techniques resulted in a reflection profile with good signal-to-noise ratios and reliable strong reflections, especially at depths equivalent to the lower crust (24-34 km). Certain geologic features, such as a buried rift basin and a crustal fault are resolved much better within the upper crust after this processing. Finite difference migration of these data using realistic velocities produced excellent results. Migration was essential to distinguish between abundant dipping and subhorizontal reflections in the lower crust as well as to show an essentially transparent upper mantle. ?? 1989 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Marine Geophysical Research

Spatial analysis of extension fracture systems: A process modeling approach

Little consensus exists on how best to analyze natural fracture spacings and their sequences. Field measurements and analyses published in geotechnical literature imply fracture processes radically different from those assumed by theoretical structural geologists. The approach adopted in this paper recognizes that disruption of rock layers by layer-parallel extension results in two spacing distributions, one representing layer-fragment lengths and another separation distances between fragments. These two distributions and their sequences reflect mechanics and history of fracture and separation. Such distributions and sequences, represented by a 2 ?? n matrix of lengthsL, can be analyzed using a method that is history sensitive and which yields also a scalar estimate of bulk extension, e (L). The method is illustrated by a series of Monte Carlo experiments representing a variety of fracture-and-separation processes, each with distinct implications for extension history. Resulting distributions of e (L)are process-specific, suggesting that the inverse problem of deducing fracture-and-separation history from final structure may be tractable. ?? 1985 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe

Dynamic similarity in erosional processes

A study is made of the dynamic similarity conditions obtaining in a variety of erosional processes. The pertinent equations for each type of process are written in dimensionless form; the similarity conditions can then easily be deduced. The processes treated are: raindrop action, slope evolution and river erosion.

Geofisica Pura e Applicata

Comparison of the basin-scale effect of dredging operations and natural estuarine processes on suspended sediment concentration

Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) data from San Pablo Bay, California, were analyzed to compare the basin-scale effect of dredging and disposal of dredged material (dredging operations) and natural estuarine processes. The analysis used twelve 3-wk to 5-wk periods of mid-depth and near-bottom SSC data collected at Point San Pablo every 15 min from 1993-1998. Point San Pablo is within a tidal excursion of a dredged-material disposal site. The SSC data were compared to dredging volume, Julian day, and hydrodynamic and meteorological variables that could affect SSC. Kendall's ??, Spearman's ??, and weighted (by the fraction of valid data in each period) Spearman's ??w correlation coefficients of the variables indicated which variables were significantly correlated with SSC. Wind-wave resuspension had the greatest effect on SSC. Median water-surface elevation was the primary factor affecting mid-depth SSC. Greater depths inhibit wind-wave resuspension of bottom sediment and indicate greater influence of less turbid water from down estuary. Seasonal variability in the supply of erodible sediment is the primary factor affecting near-bottom SSC. Natural physical processes in San Pablo Bay are more areally extensive, of equal or longer duration, and as frequent as dredging operations (when occurring), and they affect SSC at the tidal time scale. Natural processes control SSC at Point San Pablo even when dredging operations are occurring.

California

Nutrient addition differentially affects ecological processes of Avicennia germinans in nitrogen versus phosphorus limited mangrove ecosystems

Nutrient over-enrichment is a major threat to marine environments, but system-specific attributes of coastal ecosystems may result in differences in their sensitivity and susceptibility to eutrophication. We used fertilization experiments in nitrogen (N)- and phosphorus (P)-limited mangrove forests to test the hypothesis that alleviating different kinds of nutrient limitation may have different effects on ecosystem structure and function in natural systems. We compared a broad range of ecological processes to determine if these systems have different thresholds where shifts might occur in nutrient limitation. Growth responses indicated N limitation in Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) forests in the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida, and P limitation at Twin Cays, Belize. When nutrient deficiency was relieved, A. germinans grew out of its stunted form by increasing wood relative to leaf biomass and shoot length relative to lateral growth. At the P-limited site, P enrichment (+P) increased specific leaf area, N resorption, and P uptake, but had no effect on P resorption. At the N-limited site, +N increased both N and P resorption, but did not alter biomass allocation. Herbivory was greater at the P-limited site and was unaffected by +P, whereas +N led to increased herbivory at the N-limited site. The responses to nutrient enrichment depended on the ecological process and limiting nutrient and suggested that N- versus P-limited mangroves do have different thresholds. +P had a greater effect on more ecological processes at Twin Cays than did +N at the IRL, which indicated that the P-limited site was more sensitive to nutrient loading. Because of this sensitivity, eutrophication is more likely to cause a shift in nutrient limitation at P-limited Twin Cays than N-limited IRL. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Ecosystems

Nutrient vectors and riparian processing: A review with special reference to African semiarid savanna ecosystems

This review article describes vectors for nitrogen and phosphorus delivery to riparian zones in semiarid African savannas, the processing of nutrients in the riparian zone and the effect of disturbance on these processes. Semiarid savannas exhibit sharp seasonality, complex hillslope hydrology and high spatial heterogeneity, all of which ultimately impact nutrient fluxes between riparian, upland and aquatic environments. Our review shows that strong environmental drivers such as fire and herbivory enhance nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment transport to lower slope positions by shaping vegetative patterns. These vectors differ significantly from other arid and semiarid ecosystems, and from mesic ecosystems where the impact of fire and herbivory are less pronounced and less predictable. Also unique is the presence of sodic soils in certain hillslopes, which substantially alters hydrological flowpaths and may act as a trap where nitrogen is immobilized while sediment and phosphorus transport is enhanced. Nutrients and sediments are also deposited in the riparian zone during seasonal, intermittent floods while, during the dry season, subsurface movement of water from the stream into riparian soils and vegetation further enrich riparian zones with nutrients. As is found in mesic ecosystems, nutrients are immobilized in semiarid riparian corridors through microbial and plant uptake, whereas dissimilatory processes such as denitrification may be important where labile nitrogen and carbon are in adequate supply and physical conditions are suitable-such as in seeps, wallows created by animals, ephemeral wetlands and stream edges. Interaction between temporal hydrologic connectivity and spatial heterogeneity are disrupted by disturbances such as large floods and extended droughts, which may convert certain riparian patches from sinks to sources for nitrogen and phosphorus. In the face of increasing anthropogenic pressure, the scientific challenges are to provide a basic understanding of riparian biogeochemistry in semiarid African savannas to adequately address the temporal and spatial impact of disturbances, and to apply this knowledge to better regional land and water management. An integrated, multidisciplinary approach applied in protected as well as human-disturbed ecosystems in southern Africa is essential for underpinning a strong environmental basis for sustainable human-related expansion.

Ecosystems

The role of surface and subsurface processes in keeping pace with sea level rise in intertidal wetlands of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

Increases in the elevation of the soil surfaces of mangroves and salt marshes are key to the maintenance of these habitats with accelerating sea level rise. Understanding the processes that give rise to increases in soil surface elevation provides science for management of landscapes for sustainable coastal wetlands. Here, we tested whether the soil surface elevation of mangroves and salt marshes in Moreton Bay is keeping up with local rates of sea level rise (2.358 mm y -1 ) and whether accretion on the soil surface was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise. We found variability in surface elevation gains, with sandy areas in the eastern bay having the highest surface elevation gains in both mangrove and salt marsh (5.9 and 1.9 mm y -1 ) whereas in the muddier western bay rates of surface elevation gain were lower (1.4 and -0.3 mm y -1 in mangrove and salt marsh, respectively). Both sides of the bay had similar rates of surface accretion (~7&ndash;9 mm y -1 in the mangrove and 1&ndash;3 mm y -1 in the salt marsh), but mangrove soils in the western bay were subsiding at a rate of approximately 8 mm y -1 , possibly due to compaction of organic sediments. Over the study surface elevation increments were sensitive to position in the intertidal zone (higher when lower in the intertidal) and also to variation in mean sea level (higher at high sea level). Although surface accretion was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise in the eastern bay, subsidence largely negated gains made through surface accretion in the western bay indicating a high vulnerability to sea level rise in these forests.

Queensland

Hydromechanical coupling in geologic processes

Earth's porous crust and the fluids within it are intimately linked through their mechanical effects on each other. This paper presents an overview of such "hydromechanical" coupling and examines current understanding of its role in geologic processes. An outline of the theory of hydromechanics and rheological models for geologic deformation is included to place various analytical approaches in proper context and to provide an introduction to this broad topic for nonspecialists. Effects of hydromechanical coupling are ubiquitous in geology, and can be local and short-lived or regional and very long-lived. Phenomena such as deposition and erosion, tectonism, seismicity, earth tides, and barometric loading produce strains that tend to alter fluid pressure. Resulting pressure perturbations can be dramatic, and many so-called "anomalous" pressures appear to have been created in this manner. The effects of fluid pressure on crustal mechanics are also profound. Geologic media deform and fail largely in response to effective stress, or total stress minus fluid pressure. As a result, fluid pressures control compaction, decompaction, and other types of deformation, as well as jointing, shear failure, and shear slippage, including events that generate earthquakes. By controlling deformation and failure, fluid pressures also regulate states of stress in the upper crust. Advances in the last 80 years, including theories of consolidation, transient groundwater flow, and poroelasticity, have been synthesized into a reasonably complete conceptual framework for understanding and describing hydromechanical coupling. Full coupling in two or three dimensions is described using force balance equations for deformation coupled with a mass conservation equation for fluid flow. Fully coupled analyses allow hypothesis testing and conceptual model development. However, rigorous application of full coupling is often difficult because (1) the rheological behavior of geologic media is complex and poorly understood and (2) the architecture, mechanical properties and boundary conditions, and deformation history of most geologic systems are not well known. Much of what is known about hydromechanical processes in geologic systems is derived from simpler analyses that ignore certain aspects of solid-fluid coupling. The simplifications introduce error, but more complete analyses usually are not warranted. Hydromechanical analyses should thus be interpreted judiciously, with an appreciation for their limitations. Innovative approaches to hydromechanical modeling and obtaining critical data may circumvent some current limitations and provide answers to remaining questions about crustal processes and fluid behavior in the crust.

Hydrogeology Journal

Combined effects of biological control of an invasive shrub and fluvial processes on riparian vegetation dynamics

Plant community responses to biocontrol of invasive plants are understudied, despite the strong influence of the composition of replacement vegetation on ecosystem functions and services. We studied the vegetation response to a folivore beetle ( Diorhabda genus, Coleoptera) that has been introduced along southwestern US river valleys to control the invasion of non-native shrubs in the genus Tamarix (Tamaricaceae). We collected detailed plant compositional and environmental data during four different surveys over 7 years (2010–2017), including two surveys prior to when substantial beetle-induced dieback occurred in summer 2012, along the lower Virgin River, Nevada. The study river was of special interest because it is one of only a few largely unregulated rivers in the region, and a large flood of 40-year return period occurred between the first and second surveys, allowing us to study the combined effects of fluvial processes, which typically drive riparian plant community assembly, and biocontrol. Vegetation trajectories differed as a function of the dominant geomorphological process. Tamarix cover declined an average of 75% and was replaced by the native shrub Pluchea sericea as the new dominant species in the floodplain, especially where sediment deposition predominated. Following deposition, and especially erosion, opportunistic native herbs, Tamarix seedlings, and noxious weeds colonized the understory layer but did not increase in cover over time. Stands of the native shrub Salix exigua , a desirable replacement species following Tamarix control, only increased slightly and remained subordinate in the floodplain. Overall, our results showed that, by successfully controlling the target non-native plant, a biocontrol agent can substantially modify the replacement plant communities in a riparian system, but that fluvial processes also strongly influence the resulting communities.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah