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Analogues to features and processes of a high-level radioactive waste repository proposed for Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Natural analogues are defined for this report as naturally occurring or anthropogenic systems in which processes similar to those expected to occur in a nuclear waste repository are thought to have taken place over time periods of decades to millennia and on spatial scales as much as tens of kilometers. Analogues provide an important temporal and spatial dimension that cannot be tested by laboratory or field-scale experiments. Analogues provide one of the multiple lines of evidence intended to increase confidence in the safe geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste. Although the work in this report was completed specifically for Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as the proposed geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste under the U.S. Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the applicability of the science, analyses, and interpretations is not limited to a specific site. Natural and anthropogenic analogues have provided and can continue to provide value in understanding features and processes of importance across a wide variety of topics in addressing the challenges of geologic isolation of radioactive waste and also as a contribution to scientific investigations unrelated to waste disposal. Isolation of radioactive waste at a mined geologic repository would be through a combination of natural features and engineered barriers. In this report we examine analogues to many of the various components of the Yucca Mountain system, including the preservation of materials in unsaturated environments, flow of water through unsaturated volcanic tuff, seepage into repository drifts, repository drift stability, stability and alteration of waste forms and components of the engineered barrier system, and transport of radionuclides through unsaturated and saturated rock zones.

Professional Paper↗

Black swans, wicked problems, and science during crises

Oceanic resources face challenges that are significant and widespread, including (but not limited to) overharvesting, climate change, selected stock collapse, coral reef decline, species extinction, pollution, and more. These challenges are the focus of much ocean science, which is helping to inform policy and guide management actions. The steady growth of research results and the emergence of new research needs have been systematically reviewed through periodic assessments, such as those of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (Valdés et al., 2010).

Oceanography↗

The evolution, approval and implementation of the U.S. Geological Survey Science Data Lifecycle Model

This paper details how the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Community for Data Integration (CDI) Data Management Working Group developed a Science Data Lifecycle Model, and the role the Model plays in shaping agency-wide policies. Starting with an extensive literature review of existing data Lifecycle models, representatives from various backgrounds in USGS attended a two-day meeting where the basic elements for the Science Data Lifecycle Model were determined. Refinements and reviews spanned two years, leading to finalization of the model and documentation in a formal agency publication . The Model serves as a critical framework for data management policy, instructional resources, and tools. The Model helps the USGS address both the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) for increased public access to federally funded research, and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) 2013 Open Data directives, as the foundation for a series of agency policies related to data management planning, metadata development, data release procedures, and the long-term preservation of data. Additionally, the agency website devoted to data management instruction and best practices (www2.usgs.gov/datamanagement) is designed around the Model’s structure and concepts. This paper also illustrates how the Model is being used to develop tools for supporting USGS research and data management processes.

Journal of eScience Librarianship↗

Post-wildfire water quality and aquatic ecosystem response in the U.S. Pacific Northwest: science and monitoring gaps

An increase in the occurrence of large, high severity wildfires in the western Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA, has created an urgent need for science to better inform forest management and policy decisions to maintain source water quality in the region. The western PNW faces similar challenges to other regions with shifting wildfire regimes and large population centers reliant on surface water from forested catchments. However, the uniquely wet and highly seasonal climate of the western PNW suggests that findings from other, more frequently burned regions may not be directly applicable. To identify science, monitoring, and management gaps and opportunities in the western PNW, this review was collaboratively undertaken by academics, non-government and industry representatives, and local, state, and federal government entities who have been working together since the 2020 Labor Day fires in Oregon. Focusing on Oregon and Washington, we found that monitoring networks for continuous water quantity and quality cover much of the state with greater representation in western U.S. ecoregions, but few studies have analyzed and published these data to capture and communicate the post-wildfire response. Approximately half of the streamgages in Oregon and Washington record major water quality parameters, and hundreds of sites in the area have discrete sampling for a wide range of water quality constituents. Still, numerous gaps exist in understanding the short- and long-term impacts of wildfire on hydrology, water chemistry, including pH and dissolved oxygen, mobilization of metals, aquatic ecosystems, and downstream drinking water treatment. Collective action to further collect, analyze, interpret, and publish the key data could help improve our understanding of post-wildfire water quality impacts in this and other increasingly wildfire-affected regions.

Oregon, Washington↗

U.S. Geological Survey ecosystems science strategy—Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Executive Summary Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policymakers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, regional, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and nonrenewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decisionmaking is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and wellbeing of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decisionmakers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decisionmakers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge, and it integrates ecosystem science and decisionmaking, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. We envision the USGS as a leader in integrating scientific information into decisionmaking processes that affect the Nation’s natural resources and human well-being. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play a pivotal role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the Bureau can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the Department of the Interior (DOI) and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and applying the results. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected components that reinforce our vision of the USGS providing science that is at the forefront of decisionmaking: Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decisionmaking about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. Support decisionmaking. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the four strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific USGS activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role in guiding sound decisionmaking during the next decade by advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Circular↗

Surface-water quality-assurance plan for the U.S. Geological Survey Washington Water Science Center

This Surface-Water Quality-Assurance Plan documents the standards, policies, and procedures used by the U.S. Geological Survey's Washington District, Water Resources Discipline office, also known as the Washington Water Science Center, for activities related to the collection, processing, storage, analysis, and publication of surface-water data. This plan serves as a guide to all District personnel involved in surface-water data activities, and changes as the needs and requirements of the District and Discipline change. Regular updates to this Plan represent an integral part of the qualityassurance process. In the Washington District, direct oversight and responsibility by the hydrographer(s) assigned to a surface-water station, combined with team approaches in all work efforts, assure high-quality data, analyses, reviews, and reports for cooperating agencies and the public.

Open-File Report↗

An evaluation of the science needs to inform decisions on Outer Continental Shelf energy development in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Alaska

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to conduct an initial, independent evaluation of the science needs that would inform the Administration's consideration of the right places and the right ways in which to develop oil and gas resources in the Arctic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), particularly focused on the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Oil and gas potential is significant in Arctic Alaska. Beyond petroleum potential, this region supports unique fish and wildlife resources and ecosystems, and indigenous people who rely on these resources for subsistence. This report summarizes key existing scientific information and provides initial guidance of what new and (or) continued research could inform decision making. This report is presented in a series of topical chapters and various appendixes each written by a subset of the USGS OCS Team based on their areas of expertise. Three chapters (Chapters 2, 3, and 4) provide foundational information on geology; ecology and subsistence; and climate settings important to understanding the conditions pertinent to development in the Arctic OCS. These chapters are followed by three chapters that examine the scientific understanding, science gaps, and science sufficiency questions regarding oil-spill risk, response, and impact (Chapter 5), marine mammals and anthropogenic noise (Chapter 6), and cumulative impacts (Chapter 7). Lessons learned from the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill are included to identify valuable "pre-positioned" science and scientific approaches to improved response and reduced uncertainty in damage assessment and restoration efforts (appendix D). An appendix on Structured Decision Making (appendix C) is included to illustrate the value of such tools that go beyond, but incorporate, science in looking at what can/should be done about policy and implementation of Arctic development. The report provides a series of findings and recommendations for consideration developed during the independent examination of science gaps and sufficiency. These recommendations are important for understanding what the USGS discovered in the course of this study and to help inform and improve decision making.

Circular↗

Evaluating environmental change and behavioral decision-making for sustainability policy using an agent-based model: A case study for the Smoky Hill River Watershed, Kansas

Sustainability has been at the forefront of the environmental research agenda of the integrated anthroposphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere since the last century and will continue to be critically important for future environmental science. However, linking humans and the environment through effective policy remains a major challenge for sustainability research and practice. Here we address this gap using an agent-based model (ABM) for a coupled natural and human systems in the Smoky Hill River Watershed (SHRW), Kansas, USA. For this freshwater-dependent agricultural watershed with a highly variable flow regime influenced by human-induced land-use and climate change, we tested the support for an environmental policy designed to conserve and protect fish biodiversity in the SHRW. We develop a proof of concept interdisciplinary ABM that integrates field data on hydrology, ecology (fish richness), social-psychology (value-belief-norm) and economics, to simulate human agents' decisions to support environmental policy. The mechanism to link human behaviors to environmental changes is the social-psychological sequence identified by the value-belief-norm framework and is informed by hydrological and fish ecology models. Our results indicate that (1) cultural factors influence the decision to support the policy; (2) a mechanism modifying social-psychological factors can influence the decision-making process; (3) there is resistance to environmental policy in the SHRW, even under potentially extreme climate conditions; and (4) the best opportunities for policy acceptance were found immediately after extreme environmental events. The modeling approach presented herein explicitly links biophysical and social science has broad generality for sustainability problems.

Kansas↗

Leveraging the strengths of citizen science and structured surveys to achieve scalable inference on population size

Population size is a key metric for management and policy decisions, yet wildlife monitoring programmes are often limited by the spatial and temporal scope of surveys. In these cases, citizen science data may provide complementary information at higher resolution and greater extent. We present a case study demonstrating how data from the eBird citizen science programme can be combined with regional monitoring efforts by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to produce high-resolution estimates of golden eagle abundance. We developed a model that uses aerial survey data from the western United States to calibrate high-resolution annual estimates of relative abundance from eBird. Using this model, we compared regional population size estimates based on the calibrated eBird information with those based on aerial survey data alone. Population size estimates based on the calibrated eBird information had strong correspondence to estimates from aerial survey data in two out of four regions, and population trajectories based on the two approaches showed high correlations. We demonstrate how the combination of citizen science data and targeted surveys can be used to (a) increase the spatial resolution of population size estimates, (b) extend the spatial extent of inference and (c) predict population size beyond the temporal period of surveys. Findings based on this case study can be used to refine policy metrics used by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and inform permitting regulations (e.g. mortality/harm associated with wind energy development). Policy implications : Our results demonstrate the ability of citizen science data to complement targeted monitoring programmes and improve the efficacy of decision frameworks that require information on population size or trajectory. After validating citizen science data against survey-based benchmarks, agencies can harness strengths of citizen science data to supplement information needs and increase the resolution and extent of population size predictions.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Toward a national, sustained U.S. ecosystem assessment

The massive investment of resources devoted to monitoring and assessment of economic and societal indicators in the United States is neither matched by nor linked to efforts to monitor and assess the ecosystem services and biodiversity that support economic and social well-being. Although national-scale assessments of biodiversity ( 1 ) and ecosystem indicators ( 2 ) have been undertaken, nearly a decade has elapsed since the last systematic assessment ( 2 ). A 2011 White House report called for a national biodiversity and ecosystem services assessment ( 3 ), but the initiative has stalled. Our aim here is to stimulate the process and outline a credible framework and pathway for an ongoing assessment of ecosystem functioning (see the photo). A national assessment should engage diverse stakeholders from multiple sectors of society and should focus on metrics and analyses of direct relevance to policy decisions, from local to national levels. Although many technical or science-focused components are in place, they need to be articulated, distilled, and organized to address policy issues.

Science↗

The influence of hazard models on GIS-based regional risk assessments and mitigation policies

Geographic information systems (GIS) are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with natural hazards in regional economies. We present a GIS-based decision support system (DSS) for assessing community vulnerability to natural hazards and evaluating potential mitigation policy outcomes. The Land Use Portfolio Modeler (LUPM) integrates earth science and socioeconomic information to predict the economic impacts of loss-reduction strategies. However, the potential use of such systems in decision making may be limited when multiple but conflicting interpretations of the hazard are available. To explore this problem, we conduct a policy comparison using the LUPM to test the sensitivity of three available assessments of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility in a coastal California community. We find that the uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the science inputs can influence the development and implementation of natural hazard management policies. Copyright ?? 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Manag↗

Results of a Wildlife Toxicology Workshop held by the Smithsonian Institution ? Identification and prioritization of problem statements

On March 13-15, 2007 nearly 50 scientists and administrators from the US and Canada participated in a Smithsonian-sponsored Wildlife Toxicology Workshop. Invitees were from academic, government, conservation and the private organizations and were selected to represent the diverse disciplines that encompass wildlife toxicology. The workshop addressed scientific and policy issues, strengths and weaknesses of current research strategies, interdisciplinary and science-based approaches in the study of complex contaminant issues, mechanisms for disseminating data to policy-makers, and the development of a partner network to meet the challenges facing wildlife toxicology over the next decade. Prior to the meeting, participants were asked to submit issues they deemed to be of highest concern which shaped four thematic groups for discussion: Wildlife Toxicology in Education, Risk Assessment, Multiple Stressors/Complex Mixtures, and Sub-Lethal to Population-Level Effects. From these discussion groups, 18 problem statements were developed and prioritized outlining what were deemed the most important issues to address now and into the future. Along with each problem statement participants developed potential solutions and action steps geared to move each issue forward. The workshop served as a stepping stone for action in the field of wildlife toxicology. These problem statements and the resulting action items are presented to the inter-disciplinary wildlife toxicology community for adoption, and future work and action items in these areas are encouraged. The workshop outcome looks to generate conversation and collaboration that will lead to the development of innovative research, future mechanisms for funding, workshops, working groups, and listserves within the wildlife toxicology community.

Book chapter↗

Best practices for incorporating climate change science into Department of the Interior analyses, consultations, and decision making

The purpose of this document is to provide technical guidance, practical application examples, and resource lists for those who conduct, manage, and/or interpret technical workflows within the Department of the Interior. This document is intended to support implementation of Department of the Interior policy 526 DM 1 and establish best practices for using climate change science to inform analysis, consultation, and decision making. The Earth’s climate is an interconnected system that distributes energy, heat, and water around the planet. Due to human-driven increases in long-lived greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is now changing. For Departmental decision-making purposes, assuming a static, unchanging baseline climate is no longer consistent with current knowledge about the climate system. There are uncertainties about future climate and how resources or assets (RoAs) will respond to new conditions. To depict the possibilities, the global climate science community develops scenarios and models to explore how future climate may respond to socioeconomic and technological development in the world. Principles for informing policy development, planning and decisions, and regulatory processes using climate change science must: 1) consider the effects of future climate change, 2) characterize the risks, and 3) characterize the uncertainties. Best practices include: Use multiple scenarios to assess risks from a range of plausible societal pathways. When constraints prevent the use of multiple scenarios or if decision makers are risk averse, ensure that the chosen scenario considers higher risk outcomes. This is particularly important for large investments or irreversible decisions and reduces the chances of overconfident decision making. Use multiple climate models within each scenario to account for the range of outcomes due to model uncertainty. Do not rely solely on a single model or an ensemble average. Use relevant climate data . Use a time-period for model projections of the future climate change consistent with the relevant timeframe of the policy, action, or decision being considered. Historical observations are useful for understanding past conditions and climate trends for the next several years, but not beyond the next decade. Consult with climate data and modeling experts to assess which data and model resources are most appropriate for any given application. Clearly describe key analysis uncertainties (including with any climate observations, models, and scenarios used), and how they were addressed in the analysis and/or decision process. This ensures transparency and learning among analysts and decision makers.

Report↗

Estimating the pelagic ocean’s benefits to humanity can enhance ocean governance

The human footprint on the global ocean is ever-increasing, particularly with new ways to grow food in the ocean, new technologies in marine energy production as a way to resolve climate change, and transport and commerce expanding across the ocean. Yet, human activities in the ocean have long been managed using a sectoral approach (e.g., fisheries, biodiversity protection, energy production, shipping) rather than a holistic integration of sector interactions, trade-offs, costs, and benefits. Coordination across sectors is now more critical than ever, not only because of the expanding human footprint but also because of climate change impacts on the ocean. Sustainable global ocean use can support the Blue Economy while also reversing negative climate impacts on the ocean. Advancements in science and technology, along with increasing momentum on global commitments to sound ocean governance, and science diplomacy internationally can support sustainable ocean use with accurate and timely information about the status and trends in the ocean’s ecosystem services (benefits) to society. Near-real time information about ecosystem services’ dynamics is critical to policymaking for a sustainable Blue Economy that works for nature and people in an ever-changing ocean. Here, we propose seven principles for ecosystem service assessments, essentially to international science diplomacy, for consideration by global marine policy communities.

Marine Policy↗

The Energy Lands Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, fiscal year 1976

The Energy Lands Program of the U.S. Geological Survey comprises several projects that conduct basic and interpretive earth-science investigations into the environmental aspects of energy-resource recovery, transmission, and conversion. More than half the coal reserves of the United States occur west of the Mississippi River; therefore, the program concentrates mostly on coal-producing regions in the Western interior. Additional studies involve the oil-shale region in Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah, and coal-related work in Alaska and Appalachia. The work is done both by USGS personnel and under USGS grants and contracts through the Energy Lands Program to universities, State Geological Surveys, and private individuals. Maps and reports characterizing many aspects of environmental earth science are being prepared for areas of Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. Types of studies underway include bedrock, surficial, and interpretive geology; engineering geology, geochemistry of surface materials and plants; climatic conditions as they influence rehabilitation potential of mined lands; and feasibility of surface vs. underground mining. The purpose common to all investigations in the Energy Lands Program is to provide timely earth-science information for use by managers, policy-makers, engineers, scientists, planners, and others, in order to contribute to an environmentally sound, orderly, and safe development of the energy resources of the Nation.

Circular↗

U.S. Geological Survey Appalachian region integrated science workshop proceedings, Gatlinburg, Tennessee, October 22-26, 2001

Some of nature's most magnificent creations on Earth are the picturesque landscape and the terrestrial and aquatic inhabitants of the Appalachian Mountains of the Eastern United States. Mother Nature has been kind to the region but man, often, has not. The Appalachian mountains and valleys have been home to a variety of human cultures, dating back approximately 12,000 years. A series of Native American peoples, including most recently the Cherokee Nation, inhabited the region prior to European settlement which began in the 1600's. All of these peoples have had the desire to reap the benefits of the land. Current and historic use of the land ranges from mineral extraction to agricultural development to timber production to industrial and residential development, all of which have now threatened the landscape. Many individuals and organizations desire to save the awe and beauty of the Appalachians for the generations to come, in a way that is environmentally and economically sustainable. They have tried for years to raise alarms that this area is threatened and worth the attention of all who are interested in an effort of restitution and preservation. Residents, environmental groups, land managers, scientists, business groups, and the multitude of visitors who pass through the national parks and other public lands located within the Appalachians have raised these same alarms. There is a need to not only identify the issues resulting from anthropogenic pressures on the landscape, but also to collect the information and conduct the science that will allow land managers and policy makers to become better informed and better able to execute their responsibilities.

Appalachia↗

Supporting natural resource management—The role of economics at the Department of the Interior—A workshop report

The first U.S. Department of the Interior Economics Workshop was held April 5–7, 2017 in Washington, D.C., to identify, highlight, and better understand needs and opportunities for economic analysis to support the Department of the Interior’s mission. The Economics Workshop, jointly convened by the Department of the Interior Office of Policy Analysis and the U.S. Geological Survey Science and Decisions Center, provided an opportunity for Department of the Interior’s economists to share expertise and experiences and to build collaboration and communication channels across the Department of the Interior. Natural and cultural resource managers face complex questions and often have to balance competing stakeholder interests. Per the mission statement, the Department of the Interior “protects and manages the Nation’s natural resources and cultural heritage; provides scientific and other information about those resources; and honors its trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians, Alaska Natives, and affiliated island communities.” Economic analysis is relevant to issues integral to nearly all the land and water management decisions made by the Department of the Interior. More than 80 Department of the Interior economists gathered at the Economics Workshop to share their work, discuss common challenges, and identify approaches to advance the use and contribution of economics at the Department of the Interior.

Open-File Report↗

Groundwater quality, age, and susceptibility and vulnerability to nitrate contamination with linkages to land use and groundwater flow, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, Colorado, 2013

The Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin is located about 25 kilometers east of Colorado Springs, Colorado. The primary aquifer is a productive section of unconsolidated deposits that overlies bedrock units of the Denver Basin and is a critical resource for local water needs, including irrigation, domestic, and commercial use. The primary aquifer also serves an important regional role by the export of water to nearby communities in the Colorado Springs area. Changes in land use and development over the last decade, which includes substantial growth of subdivisions in the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, have led to uncertainty regarding the potential effects to water quality throughout the basin. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Cherokee Metropolitan District, El Paso County, Meridian Service Metropolitan District, Mountain View Electric Association, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Groundwater Management District, Woodmen Hills Metropolitan District, Colorado State Land Board, and Colorado Water Conservation Board, and the stakeholders represented in the Groundwater Quality Study Committee of El Paso County conducted an assessment of groundwater quality and groundwater age with an emphasis on characterizing nitrate in the groundwater. Groundwater-quality samples were collected from 50 randomly selected wells between May and June 2013. The samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, dissolved gases, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113), and fuel products (such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes). None of the groundwater samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Primary Drinking Water Regulations for primary maximum contaminant levels (MCL) for major ions. Secondary maximum contaminant levels, which are not health concerns and affect mainly taste, color, or odor of the water, were observed in rare instances for pH (2 samples), chloride (1 sample), iron (3 samples), and manganese (8 samples). The secondary maximum contaminant level for total dissolved solids was also exceeded for two samples. Nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen in groundwater) was elevated above the estimated background concentration of natural recharge waters of 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) in 44 of the 50 wells sampled and showed a median concentration of 5.4 mg/L. Nitrate concentrations were above the MCL of 10 mg/L in 5 of the 50 wells sampled and above half of the EPA MCL (5 mg/L) in 27 of the 50 wells sampled, which included samples above the MCL. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations exceeded 0.5 mg/L in 95 percent of reported values (40 of 42 samples) and exceeded 2.0 mg/L in 90 percent of reported values (38 of 42 samples). The oxidized conditions observed in most areas indicate that nitrate from fertilizers and animal or human waste was geochemically stable and could persist in the groundwater for decades or perhaps longer. A historical analysis of median nitrate concentrations over nearly three decades showed an increase in nitrate of approximately 1 mg/L from 4.3 to 5.4 mg/L, although the increase was not determined to be significantly different using nonparametric statistical methods. Major-ion data indicate that groundwater representative of the primary aquifer was classified as calcium-sodium bicarbonate type water. Other water samples from wells located mainly along the periphery of the primary aquifer had cation-anion compositions consistent with distinct water sources, including groundwater contributions from the underlying bedrock aquifers. The areas with differentiable water sources were located mainly where alluvial deposits were thin and geologic contacts to the underlying bedrock aquifers were relatively shallow. Nitrate concentrations in the groundwater were evaluated for relations to land use. An agricultural region was defined using a sequence of land satellite imagery. Groundwater flow directions interpreted from median water-table elevations measured from 2000 to 2013 were used in conjunction with cropland locations to define the agricultural region boundaries by encompassing potential pathways of nitrate transport in the groundwater from nitrogen-based fertilizers. A statistically significant higher median nitrate concentration was observed for areas inside the agricultural region (6.7 mg/L) compared to areas outside the agricultural region (2.3 mg/L), although median concentrations in both areas were below the MCL (10 mg/L). Median nitrate concentration was also significantly greater in land parcels with septic use (4.9 mg/L) compared to nonseptic parcels (1.7 mg/L). In general, agriculture or septic use was identified as the primary source of nitrate, depending on location, while commercial, county, grazing, and residential land uses were generally secondary sources of nitrate. Apparent groundwater ages were estimated from chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) and tritium ( 3 H) data using models that assumed piston flow and binary mixing (dilution of a young component with old, tracer-free water). The mean and median groundwater ages were about 30 years and the standard deviation was 6 years, indicating that most groundwater in the primary aquifer was “young” water that had recharged to the aquifer over the last few decades (post-1950s). The median fraction of young water was about 71 percent, and the standard deviation was 29 percent. The remaining water predated the 1950s, which may have originated from deeper geologic formations or may represent slow moving groundwater within the primary aquifer. Some of the oldest groundwater ages (older than 30 years) were observed in the upper reaches of the aquifer to the northwest where the primary aquifer is thin and intersects bedrock, supporting the hypothesis of geochemically distinct groundwater entering the primary aquifer from below. Groundwater that had reached the central part of the aquifer from upgradient areas of the basin was variable in age because of differences in flow paths and travel velocities. The groundwater age analysis showed that current (2013) land-use practices could affect water quality over decades to come, and that responses to remedial actions could be slow, especially for constituents, such as nitrate, that are stable under oxidized conditions. Fuel products (including acetone, benzene, diisopropyl ether, ethylbenzene, methyl acetate, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), methyl tert-pentyl ether, m- + p-xylene, o-xylene, tert-amyl alcohol, tert-butyl alcohol, tert-butyl ethyl ether, and toluene) were analyzed in groundwater from 49 of the 50 wells. Water from seven sites had detections for fuel compounds; all concentrations were below MCL. The results provided assurance of water quality and a valuable baseline to evaluate future trends of fuel constituents as the region is further developed. Probability maps were developed from logistic regression models to examine the likelihood that nitrate concentrations in groundwater exceeded specified levels. Susceptibility analysis examined relations between mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate concentrations and climatic, hydrologic, and geologic variables; the significant variables were identified as depth to groundwater, soil organic matter, and soil water storage to 25-centimeter (cm) depth. The vulnerability assessments included natural factors driving susceptibility but also human factors related to land use and septic use. Vulnerability to low-level (2.5 mg/L) nitrate was related to depth to groundwater, septic zoning, and soil organic matter. The results highlighted that septic zoning affected low-level nitrate concentrations. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate was examined using all 50 samples and also with two data outliers removed, which showed relatively high nitrate concentrations but also anomalous water chemistry or were located beyond the primary study area. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate using all 50 samples was related to depth to groundwater, land use, septic use within a 500-meter (m) radius, soil water storage to a 25-cm depth, soil organic matter, and whether a location was within the agricultural region. The mid-level (5.0 mg/L) vulnerability model using 48 samples (two outliers removed) produced the best overall fit and was related to the same variables as when using all samples except septic use. The results for mid-level vulnerability provided additional support that septic use was associated with low levels of nitrate in the groundwater. Soil properties and land use were identified as the main drivers of moderate nitrate concentrations. Probabilities of exceeding low-level nitrate concentrations were high in most areas with the lowest probabilities usually to the northwest along thin geologic deposits in the upper part of the basin. The results of this investigation offer the foundational information needed for developing best management practices to mitigate nitrate contamination, basic concepts on water quality to aid public education, and information to guide regulatory measures if policy makers determine this is warranted. Science-based decision making will require continued monitoring and analysis of water quality in the future.

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