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Results for “Journal of Testing and Evaluation”

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USGS1978

An evaluation of errors in mapping land use changes for the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site

Land use change maps prepared from high-resolution, high-altitude aerial photographs for the period 1970 to 1972 of the CARETS (Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site) project were analyzed for accuracy. To test for errors of commission, all outlined areas (polygons) of land use change on five l:100000-scale maps were examined for accuracy. An estimate of the errors of omission was obtained by comparing the land use change polygons mapped for the Norfolk SMSA (Norfolk and Virginia Beach Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area) with the changes mapped in a more detailed study of the same area. The results of these studies showed that the largest number of errors was caused by misregistration of the land use change map to the 1970 land use map; however, only a very small percentage of the total land area of the land use change was affected by misregistration. In the Norfolk SMSA, which is an area of rapid urban growth, many of the land use changes had not been mapped. The conclusion is that quality control checks are necessary both during and after map compilation. The experience of the CARETS and other land use mapping experiments conducted in the early 1970's has resulted in the development of carefully designed quality-control procedures implemented in the nationwide mapping of land use and land cover currently being carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2020

Well predictive performance of play-wide and Subarea Random Forest models for Bakken productivity

In recent years, geologists and petroleum engineers have struggled to clearly identify the mechanisms that drive productivity in horizontal, hydraulically-fractured oil wells producing from the middle member of the Bakken formation. This paper fills a gap in the literature by showing how this play’s heterogeneity affects factors that drive well productivity. It is important because understanding the relative strength of productivity drivers and how predictors vary spatially facilitates best-practices for well site selection and well completion design. The paper describes an application of the Random Forest (RF) machine learning technique to identify these mechanisms and to evaluate their importance across 9 subareas of the North Dakota portion of the Bakken play. The study examined productivity of 7311 wells initiating production from 2010 through 2017. Well productivity varied considerably across the 9 subareas within the play, so it was not surprising that the dominant predictors, the initial 180-day water cut and the 30-day initial gas production, vary spatially to mirror local conditions that strongly affect well productivity. The relative importance of well completion predictor variables, that is, the numbers of fractures stages per well, volume of injected proppant per stage, volume of injected fluids per stage, and lateral length, varied considerably across the subareas. Statistical permutation tests are presented that generally confirm the importance rankings. Subarea Random Forest models explained from 50 percent to 82 percent of the variation in productivity test samples while the play-wide model explained 73 percent of the test sample well productivity. Weakness in the predictive ability of the Random Forest models are traced to the limited variability in the training data. Implications of the empirical findings regarding the Bakken play for operators and for research and government institutions are discussed in the concluding section.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2007

Regional assessment of NLEAP NO 3- N leaching indices

Nonpoint source ground water contamination by nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 -N) leached from agricultural lands can be substantial and increase health risks to humans and animals. Accurate and rapid methods are needed to identify and map localities that have a high potential for contamination of shallow aquifers with NO 3 -N leached from agriculture. Evaluation of Nitrate Leaching and Economic Analysis Package (NLEAP) indices and input variables across an irrigated agricultural area on an alluvial aquifer in Colorado indicated that all leaching indices tested were more strongly correlated with aquifer NO 3 -N concentration than with aquifer N mass. Of the indices and variables tested, the NO 3 -N Leached (NL) index was the NLEAP index most strongly associated with groundwater NO 3 -N concentration (r 2 values from 0.37 to 0.39). NO 3 -N concentration of the leachate was less well correlated with ground water NO 3 -N concentration (r 2 values from 0.21 to 0.22). Stepwise regression analysis indicated that, although inorganic and organic/inorganic fertilizer scenarios had similar r 2 values, the Feedlot Indicator (proximity) variable was significant over and above the NO 3 -N Leached index for the inorganic scenario. The analysis also showed that combination of either Movement Risk Index (MIRI) or NO 3 -N concentration of the leachate with the NO 3 -N Leached index leads to an improved regression, which provides insight into area-wide associations between agricultural activities and ground water NO 3 -N concentration.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2007

Evaluation of mean velocity and turbulence measurements with ADCPs

To test the ability of acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) to measure turbulence, profiles measured with two pulse-to-pulse coherent ADCPs in a laboratory flume were compared to profiles measured with an acoustic Doppler velocimeter, and time series measured in the acoustic beam of the ADCPs were examined. A four-beam ADCP was used at a downstream station, while a three-beam ADCP was used at a downstream station and an upstream station. At the downstream station, where the turbulence intensity was low, both ADCPs reproduced the mean velocity profile well away from the flume boundaries; errors near the boundaries were due to transducer ringing, flow disturbance, and sidelobe interference. At the upstream station, where the turbulence intensity was higher, errors in the mean velocity were large. The four-beam ADCP measured the Reynolds stress profile accurately away from the bottom boundary, and these measurements can be used to estimate shear velocity. Estimates of Reynolds stress with a three-beam ADCP and turbulent kinetic energy with both ADCPs cannot be computed without further assumptions, and they are affected by flow inhomogeneity. Neither ADCP measured integral time scales to within 60%. ?? 2007 ASCE.

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering↗

USGS2009

A habitat assessment for Florida panther population expansion into central Florida

One of the goals of the Florida panther ( Puma concolor coryi ) recovery plan is to expand panther range north of the Caloosahatchee River in central Florida. Our objective was to evaluate the potential of that region to support panthers. We used a geographic information system and the Mahalanobis distance statistic to develop a habitat model based on landscape characteristics associated with panther home ranges. We used cross-validation and an independent telemetry data set to test the habitat model. We also conducted a least-cost path analysis to identify potential habitat linkages and to provide a relative measure of connectivity among habitat patches. Variables in our model were paved road density, major highways, human population density, percentage of the area permanently or semipermanently flooded, and percentage of the area in natural land cover. Our model clearly identified habitat typical of that found within panther home ranges based on model testing with recent telemetry data. We identified 4 potential translocation sites that may support a total of approximately 36 panthers. Although we identified potential habitat linkages, our least-cost path analyses highlighted the extreme isolation of panther habitat in portions of the study area. Human intervention will likely be required if the goal is to establish female panthers north of the Caloosahatchee in the near term.

Florida↗

USGS2005

Does choice of estimators influence conclusions from true metabolizable energy feeding trials?

True metabolizable energy (TME) is a measure of avian dietary quality that accounts for metabolic fecal and endogenous urinary energy losses (EL) of non-dietary origin. The TME is calculated using a bird fed the test diet and an estimate of EL derived from another bird (Paired Bird Correction), the same bird (Self Correction), or several other birds (Group Mean Correction). We evaluated precision of these estimators by using each to calculate TME of three seed diets in blue-winged teal ( Anas discors ). The TME varied by <2% among estimators for all three diets, and Self Correction produced the least variable TMEs for each. The TME did not differ between estimators in nine paired comparisons within diets, but variation between estimators within individual birds was sufficient to be of practical consequence. Although differences in precision among methods were slight, Self Correction required the lowest sample size to achieve a given precision. Feeding trial methods that minimize variation among individuals have several desirable properties, including higher precision of TME estimates and more rigorous experimental control. Consequently, we believe that Self Correction is most likely to accurately represent nutritional value of food items and should be considered the standard method for TME feeding trials.

Journal of Ornithology↗

USGS2011

Misidentification of freshwater mussel species (Bivalvia:Unionidae): Contributing factors, management implications, and potential solutions

Surveys of freshwater mussel populations are used frequently to inform conservation decisions by providing information about the status and distribution of species. It is generally accepted that not all mussels or species are collected during surveys, and incomplete detection of individuals and species can bias data and can affect inferences. However, considerably less attention has been given to the potential effects of species misidentification. To evaluate the prevalence of and potential reasons for species misidentification, we conducted a laboratory-based identification exercise and quantified the relationships between mussel species characteristics, observer experience, and misidentification rate. We estimated that misidentification was fairly common, with rates averaging 27% across all species and ranging from 0 to 56%, and was related to mussel shell characteristics and observer experience. Most notably, species with shell texturing were 6.09× less likely than smooth-shelled species to be misidentified. Misidentification rates declined with observer experience, but for many species the risk of misidentification averaged >10% even for observers with moderate levels of experience (5–6 y). In addition, misidentification rates among observers showed substantial variability after controlling for experience. Our results suggest that species misidentification may be common in field surveys of freshwater mussels and could potentially bias estimates of population status and trends. Misidentification rates possibly could be reduced through use of regional workshops, testing and certification programs, and the availability of archived specimens and tissue samples in museum collections.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗

USGS2023

Provenance, genotype, and flooding influence growth and resource acquisition characteristics in a clonal, riparian shrub

Premise Riparian plants can exhibit intraspecific phenotypic variability across the landscape related to temperature and flooding gradients. Phenotypes that vary across a climate gradient are often partly genetically determined and may differ in their response to inundation. Changes to inundation patterns across a climate gradient could thus result in site-specific inundation responses. Phenotypic variability is more often studied in riparian trees, yet riparian shrubs are key elements of riparian systems and may differ from trees in phenotypic variability and environmental responses. Methods We tested if individuals of a clonal, riparian shrub, Pluchea sericea , collected from provenances spanning a temperature gradient differed in their phenotypes and responses to inundation and to what degree such differences were related to genotype. Plants were subjected to different inundation depths and a subset genotyped. Variables related to growth and resource acquisition were measured and analyzed using hierarchical, multivariate Bayesian linear regressions. Results Individuals from different provenances differed in their phenotypes, but not in their response to inundation. Phenotypes were not related to provenance temperature but were partially governed by genotype. Growth was more strongly influenced by inundation, while resource acquisition was more strongly controlled by genotype. Conclusions Growth and resource acquisition responses in a clonal, riparian shrub are affected by changes to inundation and plant demographics in unique ways. Shrubs appear to differ from trees in their responses to environmental change. Understanding environmental effects on shrubs separately from those of trees will be a key part of evaluating environmental change impacts on riparian ecosystems.

American Journal of Botany↗

USGS2013

Estimated global nitrogen deposition using NO 2 column density

Global nitrogen deposition has increased over the past 100 years. Monitoring and simulation studies of nitrogen deposition have evaluated nitrogen deposition at both the global and regional scale. With the development of remote-sensing instruments, tropospheric NO 2 column density retrieved from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) and Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) sensors now provides us with a new opportunity to understand changes in reactive nitrogen in the atmosphere. The concentration of NO 2 in the atmosphere has a significant effect on atmospheric nitrogen deposition. According to the general nitrogen deposition calculation method, we use the principal component regression method to evaluate global nitrogen deposition based on global NO2 column density and meteorological data. From the accuracy of the simulation, about 70% of the land area of the Earth passed a significance test of regression. In addition, NO2 column density has a significant influence on regression results over 44% of global land. The simulated results show that global average nitrogen deposition was 0.34 g m −2 yr −1 from 1996 to 2009 and is increasing at about 1% per year. Our simulated results show that China, Europe, and the USA are the three hotspots of nitrogen deposition according to previous research findings. In this study, Southern Asia was found to be another hotspot of nitrogen deposition (about 1.58 g m −2 yr −1 and maintaining a high growth rate). As nitrogen deposition increases, the number of regions threatened by high nitrogen deposits is also increasing. With N emissions continuing to increase in the future, areas whose ecosystem is affected by high level nitrogen deposition will increase.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2021

As the prey thickens: Rainbow trout select prey based upon width not length

Drift-feeding fish are typically considered size-selective predators. Yet, few studies have explicitly tested which aspect of prey “size” best explains size selection by drift-foraging fish. Here, we develop a Bayesian discrete choice model to evaluate how attributes of both prey and predator simultaneously influence size-selective foraging. We apply the model to a large dataset of paired invertebrate drift ( n = 784) and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) diets ( n = 1028). We characterized prey “size” using six metrics (length, width, area, hemispherical area, volume, mass) and used pseudo- R 2 to determine which metric best explained observed prey selection across seven taxa. We found that rainbow trout are positively size-selective, they are selecting prey based upon differences in prey width, and size-selectivity increases with fish length. Rainbow trout demonstrated strong selection for the adult and pupae stages of aquatic insects relative to their larval stages. Our study provides strong empirical evidence for size-selective foraging in rainbow trout and demonstrates prey selection is based primarily upon width, not length or area as has been widely reported.

Arizona↗

USGS1998

Estimator selection for closed-population capture: recapture

For valid statistical inference, it is important to select an appropriate statistical model. In the analysis of capture-recapture data under the closed-population models of Otis et al. (1978), information theoretic and hypothesis testing approaches to model selection are not practical, because some of the models have likelihoods with nonidenti- fiable parameters. A further problem is that, for some of the Otis et al. models, multiple estimators exist but there is no objective basis for deciding which estimator to use for a particular dataset. In CAPTURE, a computer program for estimating parameters un- der the closed models of Otis et al., a linear discriminant classifier is used to select an appropriate model. This classifier frequently selects the incorrect generating model in simulation studies, and it provides no guidance on which estimator to use once a model has been selected. In this study, we develop new classifiers for selecting the best esti- mator (as opposed to the generating model) and evaluate their performance. In addition, we investigate an estimator averaging approach to estimation that is a modification of the model averaging approach described by Buckland et al. (1997). We found that, in general, the overall performance of the new classifiers was unimpressive. In contrast, the estimator averaging approach we investigated performed well.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS1998

Evaluation of a new miniature pressure-sensitive radio transmitter

A miniature pressure-sensitive radio transmitter (tag) was evaluated and field tested as a tool for determining the depths of juvenile salmonids. The tag had an effective radiated power of −19.7 decibels (1 mW reference), dimensions of 23 mm × 7 mm, and a weight of 2.2 g in air. The pulse rate of the tag increased with pressure, resulting in an expected tag life of approximately 11 d at the water surface and 7.5 d at 10.5 m. The tags were accurate to within 16 mm with 95% of observations within ±0.32 m of the true depth. The resolution of the tags was 0.2 m. Errors in indicated depth resulting from differences between the calibration and operating temperatures were minimized by means of a correction factor. Tags surgically implanted in juvenile steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss indicated a depth 0.2 m less than the same tags in water. This difference was not affected by pressure or temperature and was rectified by adjusting data from tags in fish. A test tag in a Columbia River reservoir was detected from distances of 1,133 m at a depth of 2 m and 148 m at a depth of 14 m. Results ind

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2023

Mapping landslide susceptibility over large regions with limited data

Landslide susceptibility maps indicate the spatial distribution of landslide likelihood. Modeling susceptibility over large or diverse terrains remains a challenge due to the sparsity of landslide data (mapped extent of known landslides) and the variability in triggering conditions. Several different data sampling strategies of landslide locations used to train a susceptibility model are used to mitigate this challenge. However, to our knowledge, no study has systematically evaluated how different sampling strategies alter a model's predictor effects (i.e., how a predictor value influences the susceptibility output) critical to explaining differences in model outputs. Here, we introduce a statistical framework that examines the variation in predictor effects and the model accuracy (measured using receiver operator characteristics) to highlight why certain sampling strategies are more effective than others. Specifically, we apply our framework to an array of logistic regression models trained on landslide inventories collected at sub-regional scales over four terrains across the United States. Results show significant variations in predictor effects depending on the inventory used to train the models. The inconsistent predictor effects cause low accuracies when testing models on inventories outside the domain of the training data. Grouping test and training sets according to physiographic and ecological characteristics, which are thought to share similar triggering mechanisms, does not improve model accuracy. We also show that using limited landslide data distributed uniformly over the entire modeling domain is better than using dense but spatially isolated data to train a model for applications over large regions.

California, Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virgini↗

USGS2005

Modeling tritium transport through a deep unsaturated zone in an arid environment

Understanding transport of tritium ( 3 H) in unsaturated zones is critical to evaluating options for waste isolation. Tritium typically is a large component of low-level radioactive waste (LLRW). Studies at the U.S. Geological Survey's Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS) in Nevada investigate 3 H transport from a closed LLRW facility. Two boreholes are 100 and 160 m from the nearest waste trench and extend to the water table at 110 m. Soil-water vapor samples from the deep boreholes show elevated levels of 3 H at all depths. The objectives of this study were to (i) test source thermal and gas-advection mechanisms driving 3 H transport and (ii) evaluate model sensitivity to these mechanisms and to selected physical and hydraulic properties including porosity, tortuosity, and anisotropy. A two-dimensional numerical model incorporated a non-isothermal, heterogeneous domain of the unsaturated zone and instantaneous isotopic equilibrium. The TOUGH2 code was used; however, it required modification to account for temperature dependence of both the Henry's law equilibrium constant and isotopic fractionation with respect to tritiated water. Increases in source temperature, pressure, and porosity enhanced 3 H migration, but failed to match measured 3 H distributions. All anisotropic simulations with a source pressure component resembled, in shape, the upper portion of the 3 H distribution of the nearest borehole. Isotopic equilibrium limited migration of 3 H, while effects of radioactive decay were negligible. A 500 Pa pressure increase above ambient pressure in conjunction with a high degree of anisotropy (1:100) was necessary for simulated 3 H transport to reach the nearest borehole.

Vadose Zone Journal↗

USGS2013

A multilocus evaluation of ermine ( Mustela erminea ) across the Holarctic, testing hypotheses of Pleistocene diversification in response to climate change

Aim: We examined data for ermine (Mustela erminea) to test two sets of diversification hypotheses concerning the number and location of late Pleistocene refugia, the timing and mode of diversification, and the evolutionary influence of insularization. Location: Temperate and sub-Arctic Northern Hemisphere. Methods: We used up to two mitochondrial and four nuclear loci from 237 specimens for statistical phylogeographical and demographic analyses. Coalescent species-tree estimation used a Bayesian approach for clade divergence based on external mutation rate calibrations. Approximate Bayesian methods were used to assess population size, timing of divergence and gene flow. Results: Limited structure coupled with evidence of population growth across broad regions, including previously ice-covered areas, indicated expansion from multiple centres of differentiation, but high endemism along the North Pacific coast (NPC). A bifurcating model of diversification with recent growth spanning three glacial cycles best explained the empirical data. Main conclusions: A newly identified clade in North America indicated a fourth refugial area for ermine. The shallow coalescence of all extant ermine reflects a recent history of diversification overlying a deeper fossil record. Post-glacial colonization has led to potential contact zones for multiple lineages in north-western North America. A model of diversification of ermine accompanied by recent gene flow was marginally less well supported than a model of divergence of major clades in response to the most recent glacial cycles.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2004

Evaluating microbial purification during soil treatment of wastewater with multicomponent tracer and surrogate tests

Soil treatment of wastewater has the potential to achieve high purification efficiency, yet the understanding and predictability of purification with respect to removal of viruses and other pathogens is limited. Research has been completed to quantify the removal of virus and bacteria through the use of microbial surrogates and conservative tracers during controlled experiments with three-dimensional pilot-scale soil treatment systems in the laboratory and during the testing of full-scale systems under field conditions. The surrogates and tracers employed included two viruses (MS-2 and PRID-1 bacteriophages), one bacterium (ice-nucleating active Pseudomonas ), and one conservative tracer (bromide ion). Efforts have also been made to determine the relationship between viruses and fecal coliform bacteria in soil samples below the wastewater infiltrative surface, and the correlation between Escherichia coli concentrations measured in percolating soil solution as compared with those estimated from analyses of soil solids. The results suggest episodic breakthrough of virus and bacteria during soil treatment of wastewater and a 2 to 3 log (99-99.9%) removal of virus and near complete removal of fecal coliform bacteria during unsaturated flow through 60 to 90 cm of sandy medium. Results also suggest that the fate of fecal coliform bacteria may be indicative of that of viruses in soil media near the infiltrative surface receiving wastewater effluent. Concentrations of fecal coliform in percolating soil solution may be conservatively estimated from analysis of extracted soil solids.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2014

Enterococcus phages as potential tool for identifying sewage inputs in the Great Lakes region

Bacteriophages are viruses living in bacteria that can be used as a tool to detect fecal contamination in surface waters around the world. However, the lack of a universal host strain makes them unsuitable for tracking fecal sources. We evaluated the suitability of two newly isolated Enterococcus host strains (ENT-49 and ENT-55) capable for identifying sewage contamination in impacted waters by targeting phages specific to these hosts. Both host strains were isolated from wastewater samples and identified as E. faecium by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Occurrence of Enterococcus phages was evaluated in sewage samples ( n = 15) from five wastewater treatment plants and in fecal samples from twenty-two species of wild and domesticated animals (individual samples; n = 22). Levels of Enterococcus phages, F + coliphages, Escherichia coli and enterococci were examined from four rivers, four beaches, and three harbors. Enterococcus phages enumeration was at similar levels (Mean = 6.72 Log PFU/100 mL) to F + coliphages in all wastewater samples, but were absent from all non-human fecal sources tested. The phages infecting Enterococcus spp. and F + coliphages were not detected in the river samples (detection threshold < 10 PFU/100 mL), but were present in the beach and harbor samples (range = 1.83 to 2.86 Log PFU/100 mL). Slightly higher concentrations (range = 3.22 to 3.69 Log MPN/100 mL) of E. coli and enterococci when compared to F + coliphages and Enterococcus phages, were observed in the river, beach and harbor samples. Our findings suggest that the bacteriophages associated with these particular Enterococcus host strains offer potentially sensitive and human-source specific indicators of enteric pathogen risk.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2009

Survival and passage of ingested New Zealand mudsnails through the intestinal tract of rainbow trout

We conducted laboratory trials to determine the transit time and survival of New Zealand mudsnails Potamopyrgus antipodarum in the gastrointestinal tract of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss. To assess the rate of snail passage, we force-fed groups of fish a known quantity of snails and then held them in tanks. At selected intervals we removed individual fish from the test tanks and recorded the number of snails, their condition (live or dead), and their location in the gastrointestinal tract (stomach, anterior intestine, and posterior intestine). Feces were removed from tanks and examined for live snails. We repeated evaluations of passage rate and snail survival to determine the effects of varying the number of snails ingested, fish size, snail size, and feeding a commercial diet to fish after snail ingestion. We plotted and modeled gut evacuation using a stochastic model for ordinal data to consider each test variable. Snail passage rates were faster in fish that were fed smaller snails. Surprisingly, fish fed snails and then administered rations of commercial fish feed retained the snails longer in their stomach than did fish that were not administered fish feeds after being fed snails. Increased retention time of snails in the stomach decreased the probability of snail survival when voided in fecal material. Snails that passed through the gastrointestinal tract within 12–24 h of ingestion were often recovered live in fecal samples. However, no live snails were recovered from the posterior intestine or fecal material collected 24 h after ingestion. Using our results we propose potential management options that could reduce the risks of introducing live snails into new locations when stocking fish from infested hatcheries.

Idaho↗