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Estimated water use in Iowa, 1985

Periodic assessments of water use in Iowa are needed to understand and manage the demands for the available water resources. This report summarizes where, how much, and for what purposes water was used in Iowa during 1985. The data are presented for the following categories: agricultural, self-supplied commercial, self-supplied domestic, self-supplied industrial, irrigation, mining, power generation (excluding hydroelectric plants), and public-water supply. The water-use data are further categorized by county, hydrologic unit subregion, and major aquifer system. During 1985, a total of 1,010,000 million gallons was estimated to have been withdrawn from Iowa's surface- and ground-water resources. Of this, 76 percent was withdrawn from surface-water sources and 24 percent from ground-water sources. Power generation was the largest water-use category, withdrawing 66 percent of the total withdrawals; 99 percent was from surface-water sources. Public-water supply was the second largest water-use category and accounted for 13 percent of total withdrawals; 74 percent was from ground-water sources. Self-supplied industries withdrew 7 percent of the total water use and agricultural withdrawals were 6 percent of the total water use. The remaining 8 percent was accounted for by irrigation (3 percent), self-supplied domestic (2 percent), mining (2 percent), and self-supplied commercial (1 percent) water users. The largest estimated water use occurred in Woodbury County where 201,000 million gallons was withdrawn. Pottawattamie County had the second largest water use with 182,000 million gallons. Other counties with significant withdrawals were Allamakee (74,900 million gallons), Muscatine (63,900 million gallons), and Clinton (62,300 million gallons). Power generation plants are in each of these counties. Surface-water withdrawals were most intensive along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. Nearly 80 percent of the surface water used in the State was by power generation plants on the border rivers. Surficial aquifers were the source of 60 percent of the ground-water withdrawals. The remaining 40 percent was withdrawn from the following aquifers: Silurian-Devonian, 14 percent; Cambrian-Ordovician, 13 percent; Dakota, 8 percent; and Mississippian-Pennsylvanian, 5 percent. It was estimated that 17 percent of the total surface water and ground water withdrawn was consumed.

Iowa

Global energy and water cycle experiment (GEWEX) continental-scale international project (GCIP); reference data sets CD-ROM

The data sets on this compact disc are a compilation of several geographic reference data sets of interest to the global-change research community. The data sets were chosen with input from the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP) Data Committee and the GCIP Hydrometeorology and Atmospheric Subpanels. The data sets include: locations and periods of record for stream gages, reservoir gages, and meteorological stations; a 500-meter-resolution digital elevation model; grid-node locations for the Eta numerical weather-prediction model; and digital map data sets of geology, land use, streams, large reservoirs, average annual runoff, average annual precipitation, average annual temperature, average annual heating and cooling degree days, hydrologic units, and state and county boundaries. Also included are digital index maps for LANDSAT scenes, and for the U.S. Geological Survey 1:250,000, 1:100,000, and 1:24,000-scale map series. Most of the data sets cover the conterminous United States; the digital elevation model also includes part of southern Canada. The stream and reservoir gage and meteorological station files cover all states having area within the Mississippi River Basin plus that part of the Mississippi River Basin lying within Canada. Several data-base retrievals were processed by state, therefore many sites outside the Mississippi River Basin are included.

Open-File Report

Collection of short papers on Beaver Creek watershed studies in West Tennessee, 1989-94

In 1989, the U.S. Geological Survey began a scientific investigation to evaluate the effect of agricultural activities on water quality and the effectiveness of agricultural best management practices in the Beaver Creek watershed, West Tennessee. The project is being conducted jointly with other Federal, State, county agencies, the farming community, and academic institutions, in support of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Hydrologic Unit Area program. The Beaver Creek project has evolved into a long-term watershed assessment and monitoring program. In 1991, a grant was received to develop and evaluate sampling strategies for higher order streams. During the summer of 1992, a reconnaissance of water-quality conditions for the shallow aquifers in Shelby, Tipton, Fayette, and Haywood Counties was conducted and included 89 domestic wells in the Beaver Creek watershed. Results from this effort lead to the development of a 1-year program to evaluate cause- and-effect relations that can explain the observed water-quality conditions for the shallow aquifers in the watershed. In 1992 the USGS, in cooperation with the Soil Conservation Service and the Shelby County Soil Conservation District, began an evaluation of in-stream processes and in-stream resource-management systems. In 1993, a biomonitoring program was established in the watershed. This collection of eight articles and abstracts was originally published in the American Water Resources Association National Symposium on Water Quality Proceedings for the national conference held in Chicago in 1994 and describes what has been learned in the study to date.

Tennessee

Lithologic and ground-water data for monitoring wells in the Santa Clara-Calleguas ground-water basin, Ventura County, California, 1989-95

Twenty-three multiple-well (nested) monitoring sites were constructed in the western part of the Santa Clara-Calleguas Hydrologic Unit and ground-water basin between October 1989 and May 1994. This report is a compilation of the data collected at these sites from October 1989 through April 1995 and includes location and design of the monitoring sites, lithologic data, geophysical logs, ground-water-level measurements, and water-quality analyses. Grain-size distribution and mineralogical analyses also are included. Ninety-nine piezometers were installed at the 23 sites to enable collection of depth-dependent data. Lithologic logs were compiled from descriptions of drill cuttings for each site and from observations recorded during logging. Generalized stratigraphic columns were compiled by grouping similar lithologic units. Grain-size and mineralogical analyses were used to identify and characterize the various lithologic units and to distinguish changes among them. Geophysical logs provided information on the character of the lithologic units and on the presence and chemical characteristics of ground water. Water levels were measured periodically during 1989-94. Water-quality data were collected periodically during 1989-95.

Open-File Report

Water use in Arkansas, 1995

As part of the National Water-Use Information Program, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stores water-use data in standardized format for different categories of water use. These data are aggregated by county, 4- and 8-digit hydrologic units, and aquifer in the Aggregated Water-Use Data System (AWUDS). Site-specific water-use data for public supply, commercial, industrial, mining, and power generation are stored in the Site-Specific Water-Use Data System (SSWUDS). Site-specific water-use for irrigation and livestock (stock and animal specialties) is stored in the Arkansas District's Water-Use Data Base System (WUDBS). Information about amounts of water withdrawn, sources of water, how the water was used, and how much was returned is available to water-resources managers and policy makers. From 1960 until about 1985, water-use data were collected and compiled in cooperation with Arkansas Geological Commission (AGC). Since 1985, water-use data have been collected and stored in cooperation with the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission (ASWCC). Updated reports are periodically required because water use changes with time. This report contains 1995 water-use data compiled as part of the National Water-Use Information Program.

Open-File Report

Base flow in the Great Lakes Basin

Hydrograph separations were performed using the PART, HYSEP 1, 2, and 3, BFLOW and UKIH methods on 104,293 years of daily streamflow records from 3,936 streamflow-gaging stations in Ontario, Canada and the eight Great Lakes States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to estimate base-flow index (BFI) and base flow. BFI ranged an average of 0.24 BFI depending on which hydrograph-separation method was used. BFI data from 959 selected streamflow-gaging stations with a combined 28,784 years of daily streamflow data were used to relate BFI to surficial geology and the proportion of surface water within the gaged watersheds. This relation was then used to derive estimates of BFI throughout the Great Lakes, Ottawa River, and upper St. Lawrence River Basins at a scale of 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC) watersheds for the U.S. and tertiary watersheds in Canada. This process was repeated for each of the six hydrograph-separation methods used. When applied to gaged watersheds, model results predicted observed base flow within 0.2 BFI up to 94 percent of the time. Estimates of long-term (length of streamflow record) average annual streamflow in each HUC and tertiary watershed were calculated and used to determine average annual base flow from BFI estimates. Possibilities for future study based on results from this study include long-term trend analysis of base flow and improving the scale at which base-flow estimates can be made.

Great Lakes Basin

Simulation of Streamflow and Water Quality to Determine Fecal Coliform and Nitrate Concentrations and Loads in the Mad River Basin, Ohio

The Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate the concentrations and loads of fecal coliform and nitrate for streams in the Mad River Basin in west-central Ohio during the period 1999 through 2003. The Mad River Basin was divided into subbasins that were defined either by the 14-digit Hydrologic Unit (HU) boundaries or by streamflow-gaging-station locations used in the model. Model calibration and simulation processes required the formation of nine meteorologic zones to input meteorologic time-series data and water-quality data. Sources of fecal coliform and nitrate from wastewater-treatment discharges and combined sewer overflow discharges (CSOs) within the City of Springfield were point sources simulated in the model. Failing septic systems and cattle with direct access to streams were nonpoint sources included in the study but treated in the model as point sources. Other nonpoint sources were addressed by adjusting interflow and ground-water concentrations in the subsurface and maximum storage capacities and accumulation rates of the simulated constituents on the land surface for each meteorologic zone. Simulation results from the calibrated model show that several HUs exceeded the water-quality standard of 1,000 colony-forming units per 100 mL for fecal coliform based on the maximum 30-day geometric mean. Most HUs with high fecal coliform counts were within or downstream from the City of Springfield. No water-quality standard has been set for instream nitrate concentrations; however, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (Ohio EPA) considered a concentration of 5 mg/L or greater to be of concern. Simulation results indicate that several HUs in the agricultural areas of the basin exceeded this level. The calibrated model was modified to create scenarios that simulated loads of fecal coliform and nitrate that were either reduced or eliminated from selected sources. The revised models included the elimination of failing septic systems, elimination of direct access of cattle to streams, decrease in fecal coliform loads from the CSOs and selected wastewater-treatment facilities, and decrease in nitrate loads from land surfaces. The fecal coliform source-reduction model decreased the fecal coliform concentrations below a target concentration of 1,000 colonies per 100 milliliters for all HU outlets and decreased the load at the mouth of the Mad River by 73 percent. The nitrate source-reduction model decreased some HU mean concentrations to 5 milligrams per liter or less and decreased the load at the mouth of the Mad River by 52 percent. Other reduction scenarios may be run by Ohio EPA with the intent of identifying a management strategy that will attain a target concentration for the Mad River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report

Regression method for estimating long-term mean annual ground-water recharge rates from base flow in Pennsylvania

A method was developed for making estimates of long-term, mean annual ground-water recharge from streamflow data at 80 streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. The method relates mean annual base-flow yield derived from the streamflow data (as a proxy for recharge) to the climatic, geologic, hydrologic, and physiographic characteristics of the basins (basin characteristics) by use of a regression equation. Base-flow yield is the base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area of the basin, expressed in inches of water basinwide. Mean annual base-flow yield was computed for the period of available streamflow record at continuous streamflow-gaging stations by use of the computer program PART, which separates base flow from direct runoff on the streamflow hydrograph. Base flow provides a reasonable estimate of recharge for basins where streamflow is mostly unaffected by upstream regulation, diversion, or mining. Twenty-eight basin characteristics were included in the exploratory regression analysis as possible predictors of base-flow yield. Basin characteristics found to be statistically significant predictors of mean annual base-flow yield during 1971-2000 at the 95-percent confidence level were (1) mean annual precipitation, (2) average maximum daily temperature, (3) percentage of sand in the soil, (4) percentage of carbonate bedrock in the basin, and (5) stream channel slope. The equation for predicting recharge was developed using ordinary least-squares regression. The standard error of prediction for the equation on log-transformed data was 9.7 percent, and the coefficient of determination was 0.80. The equation can be used to predict long-term, mean annual recharge rates for ungaged basins, providing that the explanatory basin characteristics can be determined and that the underlying assumption is accepted that base-flow yield derived from PART is a reasonable estimate of ground-water recharge rates. For example, application of the equation for 370 hydrologic units in Pennsylvania predicted a range of ground-water recharge from about 6.0 to 22 inches per year. A map of the predicted recharge illustrates the general magnitude and variability of recharge throughout Pennsylvania.

Scientific Investigations Report

Water Withdrawals, Use, and Trends in Florida, 2005

In 2005, the total amount of water withdrawals in Florida was estimated at 18,359 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Saline water accounted for 11,486 Mgal/d (63 percent), and freshwater accounted for 6,873 Mgal/d (37 percent). Groundwater accounted for 4,247 Mgal/d (62 percent) of freshwater withdrawals, and surface water accounted for the remaining 2,626 Mgal/d (38 percent). Surface water accounted for nearly all (99.9 percent) saline-water withdrawals. An additional 660 Mgal/d of reclaimed wastewater was used in Florida during 2005. The largest amount of freshwater was withdrawn from Palm Beach County, and the largest amount of saline water was withdrawn from Pasco County. Fresh groundwater provided drinking water (public supplied and self-supplied) for 16.19 million people (90 percent of Florida's population), and fresh surface water provided drinking water for 1.73 million people (10 percent). The majority of groundwater withdrawals (nearly 60 percent) in 2005 was obtained from the Floridan aquifer system which is present throughout the entire State. The majority of fresh surface-water withdrawals (59 percent) came from the southern Florida hydrologic unit subregion and is associated with Lake Okeechobee and the canals in the Everglades Agricultural Area of Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach Counties, as well as the Caloosahatchee River and its tributaries in the agricultural areas of Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Counties. Overall, agricultural irrigation accounted for 40 percent of the total freshwater withdrawals (ground and surface), followed by public supply with 37 percent. Public supply accounted for 52 percent of groundwater withdrawals, followed by agricultural self-supplied (31 percent), ommercial-industrial-mining self-supplied (8.5 percent), recreational irrigation and domestic self-supplied (4 percent each), and power generation (0.5 percent). Agricultural self-supplied accounted for 56 percent of fresh surface-water withdrawals, followed by power generation (20.5 percent), public supply (13 percent), recreational irrigation (6 percent), and commercial-industrial self-supplied (4.5 percent). Power generation accounted for nearly all (99.9 percent) saline-water withdrawals. Of the 17.92 million people who resided in Florida during 2005, 41 percent (7.36 million people) resided in the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), followed by the St. Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD) and the Southwest Florida Water Management District (SWFWMD) with 25 percent each (4.46 and 4.44 million people, respectively), the Northwest Florida Water Management District (NWFWMD) with 7.5 percent (1.34 million people), and the Suwannee River Water Management District (SRWMD) with 1.5 percent (0.32 million people). The largest amount of freshwater withdrawals was from the SFWMD, which was one-half (50 percent) of the State's total freshwater withdrawals, followed by the SJRWMD (19 percent), SWFWMD (16 percent), NWFWMD (10 percent), and SRWMD (5 percent). Between 1950 and 2005, the population of Florida increased by 15.15 million (550 percent), and the total water withdrawals (fresh and saline) increased 15,700 Mgal/d (600 percent). More recently, total withdrawals decreased 1,790 Mgal/d (9 percent) between 2000 and 2005, but the total population increased by 1.94 million (12 percent). Between 1990 and 2005, saline-water withdrawals increased 1,120 Mgal/d (11 percent), whereas between 2000 and 2005, saline-water withdrawals decreased 470 Mgal/d (4 percent). Between 1990 and 2005, freshwater withdrawals decreased 710 Mgal/d (9 percent), whereas between 2000 and 2005, freshwater withdrawals decreased 1,320 Mgal/d (16 percent). The use of highly mineralized groundwater as a source of supply, primarily for public supply, also has increased in Florida. This water, referred as nonpotable water, increased from just less than 2 Mgal/d in 1970, to 142 Mgal/d in 2005. Nonpotable water is treated to meet drin

Scientific Investigations Report

Trends in precipitation, streamflow, reservoir pool elevations, and reservoir releases in Arkansas and selected sites in Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma, 1951–2011

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) conducted a statistical analysis of trends in precipitation, streamflow, reservoir pool elevations, and reservoir releases in Arkansas and selected sites in Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma for the period 1951–2011. The Mann-Kendall test was used to test for trends in annual and seasonal precipitation, annual and seasonal streamflows of 42 continuous-record USGS streamflow-gaging stations, annual pool elevations and releases from 16 USACE reservoirs, and annual releases from 11 dams on the Arkansas River. A statistically significant (p≤0.10) upward trend was observed in annual precipitation for the State, with a Sen slope of approximately 0.10 inch per year. Autumn and winter were the only seasons that had statistically significant trends in precipitation. Five of six physiographic sections and six of seven 4-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC) regions in Arkansas had statistically significant upward trends in autumn precipitation, with Sen slopes of approximately 0.06 to 0.10 inch per year. Sixteen sites had statistically significant upward trends in the annual mean daily streamflow and were located on streams that drained regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation. Expected annual rates of change corresponding to statistically significant trends in annual mean daily streamflows, which ranged from 0.32 to 0.88 percent, were greater than those corresponding to regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation, which ranged from 0.19 to 0.28 percent, suggesting that the observed trends in regional annual precipitation do not fully account for the observed trends in annual mean daily streamflows. Trends in annual maximum daily streamflows were similar to trends in the annual mean daily streamflows but were only statistically significant at seven sites. There were more statistically significant trends (28 of 42 sites) in the annual minimum daily streamflows than in the annual means or maximums. Statistically significant trends in the annual minimum daily streamflows were upward at 18 sites and downward at 10 sites. Despite autumn being the only season that had statistically significant upward trends in seasonal precipitation, statistically significant upward trends in seasonal mean streamflows occurred in every season but spring. Trends in the annual mean, maximum, and minimum daily pool elevations of USACE reservoirs were consistent between metrics for reservoirs in the White, Arkansas, and Ouachita River watersheds, while trends varied between metrics at DeQueen Lake, Millwood Lake, and Lake Chicot. Most of the statistically significant trends in pool elevation metrics were upward and gradual—Sen slopes were less than 0.37 foot per year—and were likely the result of changes in reservoir regulation plans. Trends in the annual mean and maximum daily releases from USACE reservoirs were generally upward in all HUC regions. There were few statistically significant trends in the annual mean daily releases because the reservoirs are operated to maintain a regulation stage at a downstream site according to guidelines set forth in the regulation plans of the reservoirs. The annual number of low-flow days was both increasing and decreasing for reservoirs in northern Arkansas and southern Missouri and generally increasing for reservoirs in southern Arkansas.

Arkansas;Louisiana;Missouri;Oklahoma

Water withdrawals, use, and trends in Florida, 2010

In 2010, the total amount of water withdrawn in Florida was estimated to be 14,988 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Saline water accounted for 8,589 Mgal/d (57 percent) and freshwater accounted for 6,399 Mgal/d (43 percent). Groundwater accounted for 4,166 Mgal/d (65 percent) of freshwater withdrawals, and surface water accounted for the remaining 2,233 Mgal/d (35 percent). Surface water accounted for nearly all (99.9 percent) saline-water withdrawals. An additional 659 Mgal/d of reclaimed wastewater was used in Florida during 2010. Freshwater withdrawals were greatest in Palm Beach County (707 Mgal/d), and saline-water withdrawals were greatest in Hillsborough County (1,715 Mgal/d). Fresh groundwater provided drinking water (public supplied and self-supplied) for 17.33 million people (92 percent of Florida’s population), and fresh surface water provided drinking water for 1.47 million people (8 percent). The statewide public-supply gross per capita use for 2010 was 134 gallons per day, whereas the statewide public-supply domestic per capita use was 85 gallons per day. The majority of groundwater withdrawals (almost 62 percent) in 2010 were obtained from the Floridan aquifer system, which is present throughout most of the State. The majority of fresh surface-water withdrawals (56 percent) came from the southern Florida hydrologic unit subregion and is associated with Lake Okeechobee and the canals in the Everglades Agricultural Area of Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach Counties, as well as the Caloosahatchee River and its tributaries in the agricultural areas of Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Counties. Overall, agricultural irrigation accounted for 40 percent of the total freshwater withdrawals (ground and surface), followed by public supply with 35 percent. Public supply accounted for 48 percent of groundwater withdrawals, followed by agricultural self-supplied (34 percent), commercial-industrial-mining self-supplied (7 percent), recreational-landscape irrigation and domestic self-supplied (5 percent each), and power generation (less than 1 percent). Agricultural self-supplied accounted for 51 percent of fresh surface-water withdrawals, followed by power generation (25 percent), public supply (11 percent), recreational-landscape irrigation (9 percent), and commercial-industrial-mining self-supplied (4 percent). Power generation accounted for nearly all (99.8 percent) saline-water withdrawals. Of the 18.80 million people who resided in Florida during 2010, 41 percent (7.68 million people) resided in the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), 25 percent each resided in the Southwest Florida Water Management District (SWFWMD) and the St. Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD) (4.73 and 4.70 million people, respectively), 7 percent (1.36 million people) resided in the Northwest Florida Water Management District (NWFWMD), and 2 percent (0.33 million people) resided in the Suwannee River Water Management District (SRWMD). The largest percentage of freshwater withdrawals was from the SFWMD (47 percent), followed by the SJRWMD (21 percent), SWFWMD (18 percent), NWFWMD (9 percent), and SRWMD (5 percent). Between 1950 and 2010, the population of Florida increased by 16.03 million (580 percent), and the total water withdrawals (fresh and saline) increased by 12,334 Mgal/d (465 percent). More recently, total freshwater withdrawals decreased by more than 1,792 Mgal/d (22 percent) between 2000 and 2010, while the population increased by 2.82 million (18 percent), and total freshwater withdrawals decreased by more than 474 Mgal/d (7 percent) between 2005 and 2010, while the population increased by 0.88 million (8 percent). The recent trend of decreases in freshwater withdrawals is a result of increased rainfall during this period, the development and use of alternative water sources, water conservation efforts, more conservative regulations and mandates, changes in economic conditions, and losses of irrigated lands. Fresh-water withdrawals for public supply, agricultural self-supplied use, and commercial-industrial-mining self-supplied use all decreased between 2000 and 2010 and between 2005 and 2010, whereas freshwater withdrawals for domestic self-supplied use, recreational-landscape irrigation use, and power generation use either remained the same or changed slightly during the decade. The use of highly mineralized groundwater (referred to as nonpotable water) as a source of drinking water has increased in Florida. Nonpotable water use for public supply has increased from nearly 2 Mgal/d in 1970 to about 165 Mgal/d in 2010. Nonpotable water is either blended or treated to meet drinking-water standards and is mostly used along the east and west coasts of central and southern Florida. The use of reclaimed wastewater increased from about 206 Mgal/d in 1986 to nearly 659 Mgal/d in 2010. More than three-quarters (79 percent) of reclaimed wastewater in 2010 was used to supplement potable-quality water withdrawals for urban irrigation, agricultural irrigation, and industrial use.

Florida

Manure and fertilizer inputs to land in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, 1950–2012

Understanding changing nutrient concentrations in surface waters requires quantitative information on changing nutrient sources in contributing watersheds. For example, the proportion of nutrient inputs reaching streams and rivers is directly affected by when and where those nutrients enter the landscape. The goal of this report is to contribute to the U.S. Geological Survey’s efforts to describe spatial and temporal patterns in nutrient inputs to the landscape in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, thereby informing efforts to understand changes in riverine and estuarine conditions. The magnitude, spatial variability, and changes over time in nutrient inputs from manure and fertilizer were evaluated in the context of changes in land use and agricultural practices from 1950 through 2012 at three spatial scales: the entire Chesapeake Bay watershed, the 53 8-digit hydrologic units (HUC8s) that are contained within the watershed, and a set of 7 regions that were determined by aggregating geographically similar HUC8s. The expected effect of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on agricultural nutrient inputs from 1985 through 2012 was also investigated. Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs from manure increased gradually over time at the scale of the entire watershed. Fertilizer-N inputs showed steeper increases, with greater inter-annual fluctuations. Fertilizer-P inputs were less variable, increasing moderately from 1950 through the mid-1970s, and declining thereafter. Nutrient inputs and farming practices varied geographically within the watershed, with implications for the potential impact of these inputs on downstream water quality and ecosystem health. Both temporal and spatial patterns in the intensity of agricultural nutrient inputs were consistent with the magnitude and concentration of livestock and poultry populations and the intensity of row crop agriculture. Reported implementation of the animal and land-use change BMPs that were evaluated were expected to have little effect on agricultural N inputs. Animal BMPs were expected to have a more measurable impact on manure-P inputs, particularly in areas with large poultry populations. Understanding these patterns is important for explaining the changes that have been observed in nutrient loads to the rivers and streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and their impacts on the water quality and ecosystem health of Chesapeake Bay itself.

Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Extraction and development of inset models in support of groundwater age calculations for glacial aquifers

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a regional model of Lake Michigan Basin (LMB). This report describes the construction of five MODFLOW inset models extracted from the LMB regional model and their application using the particle-tracking code MODPATH to simulate the groundwater age distribution of discharge to wells pumping from glacial deposits. The five study areas of the inset model correspond to 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins. Two of the basins are tributary to Lake Michigan from the east, two are tributary to the lake from the west, and one is just west of the western boundary of the Lake Michigan topographic basin. The inset models inherited many of the inputs to the parent LMB model, including the hydrostratigraphy and layering scheme, the hydraulic conductivity assigned to bedrock layers, recharge distribution, and water use in the form of pumping rates from glacial and bedrock wells. The construction of the inset models entailed modifying some inputs, most notably the grid spacing (reduced from cells 5,000 feet on a side in the parent LMB model to 500 feet on a side in the inset models). The refined grid spacing allowed for more precise location of pumped wells and more detailed simulation of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The glacial hydraulic conductivity values, the top bedrock surface elevation, and the surface-water network input to the inset models also were modified. The inset models are solved using the MODFLOW–NWT code, which allows for more robust handling of conditions in unconfined aquifers than previous versions of MODFLOW. Comparison of the MODFLOW inset models reveals that they incorporate a range of hydrogeologic conditions relative to the glacial part of the flow system, demonstrated by visualization and analysis of model inputs and outputs and reflected in the range of ages generated by MODPATH for existing and hypothetical glacial wells. Certain inputs and outputs are judged to be candidate predictors that, if treated statistically, may be capable of explaining much of the variance in the simulated age metrics. One example of a predictor that model results indicate strongly affects simulated age is the depth of the well open interval below the simulated water table. The strength of this example variable as an overall predictor of groundwater age and its relation to other predictors can be statistically tested through the metamodeling process. In this way the inset models are designed to serve as a training area for metamodels that estimate groundwater age in glacial wells, which in turn will contribute to ongoing studies, under the direction of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment, of contaminant susceptibility of shallow groundwater across the glacial aquifer system.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin

Water withdrawals, uses, and trends in Florida, 2015

In 2015, the total amount of water withdrawn in Florida was estimated to be 15,319 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Saline water accounted for 9,598 Mgal/d (63 percent) and freshwater accounted for 5,721 Mgal/d (37 percent) of the total. Groundwater accounted for 3,604 Mgal/d (63 percent) of freshwater withdrawals and surface water accounted for the remaining 2,117 Mgal/d (37 percent). Surface-water sources accounted for 9,401 Mgal/d (98 percent) of the saline-water withdrawals, and groundwater sources accounted for the remaining 198 Mgal/d (2 percent). The majority of groundwater withdrawals (almost 62 percent) in 2015 were from the Floridan aquifer system, which is used throughout most of the State while the majority of fresh surface-water withdrawals (52 percent) occurred in the Southern Florida Subregion, a hydrologic unit that includes Lake Okeechobee and canals in the Everglades Agricultural Area. Groundwater provided drinking water (public supplied and self-supplied) for 18.324 million people (92 percent of Florida’s population), and fresh surface water provided drinking water for 1.491 million people (8 percent). Overall, public supply accounted for 39 percent of the total freshwater withdrawals (ground and surface) and 53 percent of groundwater withdrawals, followed by agricultural self-supplied uses, which accounted for 37 percent of the total freshwater withdrawals and 28 percent of groundwater withdrawals. Other self-supplied groundwater withdrawals include commercial-industrial-mining self-supplied (8 percent), recreational-landscape irrigation and domestic self-supplied (5 percent each), and power generation (less than 1 percent). Agricultural self-supplied withdrawals accounted for 51 percent of fresh surface-water withdrawals, followed by power generation (19 percent), public supply (15 percent), recreational-landscape irrigation (10 percent), and commercial-industrial-mining self-supplied (5 percent). In 1975, agricultural water withdrawals accounted for 43 percent of the total freshwater withdrawals, followed by power generation (24 percent) and public supply (17 percent). By 2000, agricultural withdrawals increased to 48 percent of the total freshwater withdrawals, followed by public supply (30 percent). For 2015, agricultural self-supplied decreased to 37 percent of total freshwater withdrawals, and was surpassed by public supply at 39 percent. Over the 40-year period between 1975 and 2015, increases in freshwater withdrawals caused by large gains in population and the expansion of irrigated acreage were offset by decreases in water used for power generation and commercial-industrial-mining withdrawals. Since 2000, however, irrigated acreage has decreased statewide because of crop disease, storm damage, and urbanization. This decline, coupled with large gains in water conservation measures in the farming industry, has led to agricultural withdrawals in Florida being less than public-supply withdrawals for the first time since water-use data were first reported in 1965.

Florida

Simulation of groundwater budgets and travel times for watersheds on the north shore of Long Island Sound, with implications for nitrogen-transport studies

Aquatic systems in and around the Long Island Sound (LIS) provide a variety of ecological and economic benefits, but in some areas of the LIS, aquatic ecosystems have become degraded by excess nitrogen. A substantial fraction of the nitrogen inputs to the LIS are transported through the groundwater-flow system. Because groundwater travel times in surficial aquifers can exceed 100 years, multiyear lags are introduced between inputs at the water table in recharge areas and discharge to inland or coastal receiving waters. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Long Island Sound Study, developed a steady-state groundwater model of the watersheds draining from the northern shore of the LIS for the purpose of calculating groundwater budgets and travel times to coastal waters. The model was developed by using the MODFLOW–NWT software and existing spatial data on aquifers, river networks, land-surface altitudes, land cover, groundwater recharge, and water use. Coastal waters were delineated on the basis of the National Wetland Inventory; all non-coastal waters were collectively termed “inland waters.” A coarse-resolution model was calibrated by using the PEST++ software, long-term records of water levels in 65 wells, stream altitudes from 477 streams, base-flow records for 14 streamgages that are relatively unaffected by withdrawals, and error metrics based on incorrectly simulated flooding and incorrectly simulated dry streams. The calibrated values were used in a fine-resolution model in which the mean absolute residuals were 4.5 meters for groundwater levels, 1.3 meters for stream altitudes, and 7,200 cubic meters per day (2.9 cubic feet per second) for base flow. About 89 percent of the terrestrial cells were correctly simulated with the water table below land surface, and nearly 90 percent of the cells representing streams were correctly simulated as having the water table above the stream bottom. Together, these metrics suggest that this model is robust for simulating regional-scale groundwater patterns. Simulated groundwater budgets were compiled for the entire study area, for each HUC12 (Hydrologic Unit Code no. 12) watershed and its adjacent coastal waters, if applicable, within the study area, and for 14 coastal-embayment watersheds. Most groundwater (90.6 percent of inflows) discharged to inland waters, with smaller fractions to coastal waters (7.0 percent) and well withdrawals (2.4 percent). When computed for HUC12 watersheds with coastal discharge, the portions of groundwater discharging to coastal waters ranged from 0.02 to 66 percent of groundwater outflows, with a median of 13 percent. Within priority-embayment watersheds, the portions of groundwater discharging to coastal waters ranged from 2 to 56 percent, with a median of 15 percent. Groundwater travel times also were simulated for the entire study area, for each HUC12 watershed and its adjacent coastal waters, if applicable, within the study area and for 14 priority coastal embayments. Within the entire study area, the median groundwater travel time was 1.9 years, with an interquartile range of 0.1 to 5.9 years. Sensitivity analysis of groundwater travel times within a subbasin in the study area indicates that the travel times are a function of the grid resolution, with coarser grids resulting in shorter median travel times. Travel times for groundwater discharging to coastal waters were similar to travel times for groundwater discharging to inland waters, with a median of 1.9 years. Median travel times for the HUC12 watersheds ranged from 0.9 to 53.5 years, with a median of 1.8 years. Among HUC12 watersheds that include coastal areas, travel times for groundwater discharging to coastal waters ranged from less than 1 to 61.6 years, with a median of 2.8 years. The HUC12 watersheds with the longest simulated travel times were in the urban area near New York City where the model performance is less accurate. Median travel times for groundwater discharging to coastal waters within the priority-embayment watersheds ranged from less than 1 to 18.6 years, with a median of 2.3 years. A more focused analysis was conducted for the Niantic River watershed to demonstrate the applicability of the regional model to local-scale nitrogen-transport analyses by using nitrogen-input and -attenuation rates from literature sources. Nitrogen inputs were estimated by using land-cover-based loading factors, and attenuation was estimated by using attenuation factors based on geologic zones and soil properties. Based on this analysis, groundwater transports an estimated 22,000 kilograms of nitrogen per year (2.9 kilograms of nitrogen per hectare per year) to streams, rivers, and coastal waters within the Niantic River watershed. Approximately 36 percent of discharging nitrogen is from atmospheric-deposition sources, 38 percent is from fertilizers, and 26 percent is from septic systems. Most of the groundwater-transported nitrogen (88 percent) discharges first to streams and rivers, with only 12 percent discharging directly to coastal waters. Travel times for groundwater-transported nitrogen ranged from less than 1 day to more than 100 years, with a median of 1.6 years.

Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island

Groundwater residence times in glacial aquifers—A new general simulation-model approach compared to conventional inset models

Groundwater is important as a drinking-water source and for maintaining base flow in rivers, streams, and lakes. Groundwater quality can be predicted, in part, by its residence time in the subsurface, but the residence-time distribution cannot be measured directly and must be inferred from models. This report compares residence-time distributions from four areas where groundwater flow and travel time were simulated with conventional simulation-inset models (IMs) and with a new automated model-construction method called general simulation models (GSMs). The comparison provides an opportunity to explore controls on travel time and improve the methods used in the creation of GSMs. These models can be useful for three main-use cases: (1) rapid testing of relationships that govern groundwater flow and age, (2) generation of consistent examples for training a machine-learning metamodel, and (3) serving as a starting point for more detailed models. Comparison of the GSMs to IMs indicated a qualified pattern of agreement for residence-time distributions as indicated by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Spearman’s correlation coefficient. The agreement was best for the median values of the simulated residence times in young fractions of groundwater (defined as the fractions of groundwater in samples less than 65 years old) at the scale of the eight-digit hydrologic-unit code. Generally, the median values of the young fractions in the IMs were correlated with the median values from the GSMs. The relative trends across the four areas also were similar for the other residence-time metrics. The medians of residence-time metrics at finer scales show a fair degree of scatter. The GSM results compared most poorly for median travel times in the older fraction of groundwater (older than 65 years). The GSM approach is intended as a flexible framework for developing models that can be useful individually as screening tools or collectively to support projects in statistical learning. Although one set of GSM algorithms was presented here, the approach can accommodate many types of data and also different categories of prior information. Comparison of GSMs and IMs suggests ways in which the GSMs, while remaining easy to construct and calibrate, can be improved for estimating groundwater travel times. IMs do not yield exact travel times, and matching GSMs to IMs does not guarantee an improvement; however, IMs provide a convenient benchmark against which to explore relations between physical characteristics of watersheds and the distribution of travel times within them. This effort was undertaken as part of the National Water Quality Program of the U.S. Geological Survey to assist in determining the susceptibility of groundwater in glacial aquifers to a variety of natural and anthropogenic contaminants.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin

Generalized additive model estimation of no-flow fractions and L-moments to support flow-duration curve quantile estimation using selected probability distributions for bay and estuary restoration in the Gulf States

Censored and uncensored generalized additive models (GAMs) were developed using streamflow data from 941 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) to predict decadal statistics of daily streamflow for streams draining to the Gulf of Mexico. The modeled decadal statistics comprise no-flow fractions and L-moments of logarithms of nonzero streamflow for six decades (1950–2009). These statistics represent metrics of decadal flow-duration curves (dFDCs) derived from about 10 million daily mean streamflows. The L-moments comprise the mean, coefficient of L-variation, and the third through fifth L-moment ratios. The GAMs were fit to the statistics from 941 streamgages and 2,750 streamgage-decades by using watershed properties such as basin area and slope, decadal precipitation and temperature, and decadal values of flood storage and urban development percentages. The GAMs then estimated decadal statistics for 9,220 prediction locations (stream reaches) coincident with outlets of level-12 hydrologic unit codes. Both entire dataset (whole model) and leave-one-watershed-out model results are reported. No-flow fractions are censored data, and Tobit extensions to GAMs were used to model ephemeral streamflow conditions. Conversely, uncensored GAMs were used for estimation of the L-moments. The GAMs are shown, by coverage probabilities, to construct reliable 95-percent prediction limits. An example shows how no-flow fractions and L-moments may be used to approximate dFDCs by using selected probability distributions (mathematical formulas) including the asymmetric exponential power, generalized normal, and kappa distributions.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou

Simulated effects of projected 2014–40 withdrawals on groundwater flow and water levels in the New Jersey Coastal Plain

Abstract Groundwater flow between 2014 through 2040 was simulated in the New Jersey Coastal Plain based on three withdrawal scenarios. Two of the scenarios were based on projected population trends and the assumption of water conservation; the nominal water-loss scenario projected a status quo in the efficiency of water loss in the delivery systems whereas the optimal water-loss scenario projected a better water-loss efficiency resulting in less withdrawals. The third scenario assumes that all wells will withdraw water at their full allocation level which is generally much more than reported withdrawals in 2013 or projected under the other two scenarios. Maps and summaries of heads and drawdowns are presented for nine confined aquifers. All the aquifers have areas with heads below sea level by 2040. Of the three scenarios, the drawdowns are most extreme in the full allocation scenarios; there are large areas of head decline greater than 20 feet in 5 of the 9 confined aquifers. The exceptions are the Vincentown aquifer, despite some areas of large drawdown in the vicinity of wells, and the three Potomac-Raritan-Magothy (PRM) aquifers where withdrawals are regulated by Critical Area restrictions. The nominal and optimal water-loss scenarios have some areas of head declines; most are less than 15 feet. The simulation of these scenarios shows some extensive areas of head recovery as well—especially in the aquifers that are regulated by the Critical Area restrictions. Budgets of inflow and outflow components were calculated for 44 hydrologic budget areas (HBAs). The budget analysis shows that the water movement is complex and varies based on the aquifer geometry and location of pumping wells. Flow components between the unconfined and confined parts of the system were summarized by HUC11 (hydrologic unit code 11) basins.

New Jersey