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At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Using geospatial analysis to guide marsh restoration in Chesapeake Bay and beyond

Coastal managers are facing imminent decisions regarding the fate of coastal wetlands, given ongoing threats to their persistence. There is a need for objective methods to identify which wetland parcels are candidates for restoration, monitoring, protection, or acquisition due to limited resources and restoration techniques. Here, we describe a new spatially comprehensive data set for Chesapeake Bay salt marshes, which includes the unvegetated-vegetated marsh ratio, elevation metrics, and sediment-based lifespan. Spatial aggregation across regions of the Bay shows a trend of increasing deterioration with proximity to the seaward boundary, coherent with conceptual models of coastal landscape response to sea-level rise. On a smaller scale, the signature of deterioration is highly variable within subsections of the Bay: fringing, peninsular, and tidal river marsh complexes each exhibit different spatial patterns with regards to proximity to the seaward edge. We then demonstrate objective methods to use these data for mapping potential management options on to the landscape, and then provide methods to estimate lifespan and potential changes in lifespan in response to restoration actions as well as future sea level rise. We account for actions that aim to increase sediment inventories, revegetate barren areas, restore hydrology, and facilitate salt marsh migration into upland areas. The distillation of robust geospatial data into simple decision-making metrics, as well as the use of those metrics to map decisions on the landscape, represents an important step towards science-based coastal management.

Chesapeake Bay area↗
USGS2023

Understanding marsh elevation and accretion processes and vulnerability to rising sea levels across climatic and geomorphic gradients in California, USA

Tidal marshes build elevations by below- and aboveground organic and mineral soil processes. Marsh elevation and accretion data can be used to determine if marshes are keeping pace with sea-level rise. Using a network of 54 deep rod surface elevation tables with paired feldspar marker horizon plots, we tracked elevation and accretion trends across 16 marshes in California, USA. All sites had overall positive gains across years that included severe drought conditions and extreme rain events. Marsh elevation relative to tidal datum ( z *) was the key predictor for elevation and accretion rates, with higher change rates at lower z * sites. Marsh sites are clustered into three regional groups (Northern California, San Francisco Bay area, and Southern California), primarily defined by maximum temperature and annual rainfall differences. Elevation, accretion, and shallow subsidence rates were not significantly different between clusters, but their explanatory variables did vary. High-temperature days were a key predictor for elevation, accretion, and shallow subsidence rates in the state-wide analysis and San Francisco Bay regional analysis. The largest elevation gains were observed in the San Francisco Bay-Delta and some of the smallest in Humboldt Bay, with Morro Bay having the lowest accretion rate overall. Central and Southern California marshes were keeping pace or out-pacing sea-level rise, while none of the Humboldt Bay marshes were keeping pace. Marsh surface elevation data can inform management intervention and be a leading indicator for sea-level rise vulnerability. Long-term monitoring across geomorphic settings can help inform management and anticipate marsh change.

California↗
USGS2023

Etiology of a fish kill, Including the endangered Tidewater Goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi), in a northeastern pacific coastal lagoon

Ecological disturbances such as fish kills can negatively impact ecosystem processes in coastal lagoons. To gain an understanding of factors causing fish kills, we examined conditions associated with a summertime fish kill in a northeastern Pacific coastal lagoon (Rodeo Lagoon, CA, USA). Examination of available data indicated the fish kill was likely caused by hypoxia involving the following etiology: (1) strong onshore winds (up to 12 m/s) mixed a stratified water column, (2) water column mixing transported nutrients from near the bed into the photic zone, (3) increased nutrient concentrations in the photic zone (> 200%) together with high solar irradiance fueled a phytoplankton bloom, (4) death and decomposition of phytoplankton (72% decrease in abundance) contributed to biological oxygen demand that led to (5) hypoxic conditions (as low as 0.6 mg/L) that caused the fish kill. The event resulted in the death of an estimated 3677 Tidewater Goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ), a species listed as endangered under the US Endangered Species Act, and numerous (but not enumerated) Threespine Stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus ), unidentified sculpins (Cottidae), and macroinvertebrates (primarily Amphipoda). The processes contributing to the event are likely re-occurring phenomena responsible for observed periodic fish kills. Coastal lagoons with limited freshwater inflows and connection to the Pacific Ocean may retain nutrients and be susceptible to similar events.

California↗
USGS2023

Relative effectiveness of a radionuclide (210Pb), surface elevation table (SET), and LiDAR at monitoring mangrove forest surface elevation change

Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the greatest future threats to mangrove forests. Mangroves have kept up with or paced past SLR by maintaining their forest floor elevation relative to sea level through root growth, sedimentation, and peat development. Monitoring surface elevation change (SEC) or accretion rates allows us to understand mangrove response to SLR and prioritizes resilient ecosystems for conservation or vulnerable ecosystems for restoration. We compared three methods to measure SEC and accretion in mangrove forests: 210 Pb, surface elevation tables (SETs), and a terrestrial light detection and ranging system (compact biomass LiDAR—CBL). Lead-210 accretion rates were not significantly different than SET SEC rates and differences between the two methods (− 2 to 2 mm/year) were within the error of our measurements. Lead-210 only measures accretion in the upper meter of sediment and cannot capture deeper subsurface processes (e.g., subsidence, compaction) that SETs can. The lack of differences suggests the following: (1) surface processes in the active root zone are influencing forest floor elevation more than subsurface processes, (2) subsurface processes were not large enough to effect elevation, or (3) the SETs were not installed deep enough to capture subsurface processes. CBL SEC rates did not differ significantly from SET SEC rates. The larger spatial scale of the CBL scans resulted in significantly different SEC rates from some of the plots. This was due to the CBL measuring areas missed by the SET. The greater number of points measured by CBL (~ 30,000 vs 36) increased precision and lowered standard error. The traditional SET/rSET method is currently 3–10 × cheaper than the 210 Pb or CBL method, respectively, and can accurately track changes in forest floor elevation. Costs of the use of LiDAR are likely to decrease in the future with the advent of newer and more cost-effective technology.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2024

Identifying and constraining marsh-type transitions in response to increasing erosion over the past century

Marsh environments, characterized by their flora and fauna, change laterally in response to shoreline erosion, water levels and inundation, and anthropogenic activities. The Grand Bay coastal system (USA) has undergone multiple large-scale geomorphic and hydrologic changes resulting in altered sediment supply, depositional patterns, and degraded barrier islands, leaving wetland salt marshes vulnerable to increased wave activity. Two shore-perpendicular transect sites, one along a low-activity shoreline and the other in a high activity area of the same bay-marsh complex, were sampled to investigate how the marshes within 50 m of the modern shoreline have responded to different levels of increased wave activity over the past century. Surface sediments graded finer and more organic with increased distance from the shoreline while cores generally exhibited a coarsening upwards grain-size trend; all cores contained multiple large sedimentological shifts. 210 Pb-based mass accumulation rates over the last two decades were greater than the long-term (centurial) average at each site with the fastest accumulation rates of 7.81 ± 1.58 and 7.79 ± 1.63 kg/m 2 /year at the sites nearest the shoreline. A shoreline change analysis of three time-slices (1848–2017, 1957–2017, 2016–2017) shows increased erosion at both sites since 1848 with modern rates of −0.95 and −0.88 m/year. Downcore sedimentology, mass accumulation rates, and shoreline change rates paired with foraminiferal biofacies and identification of local estuarine indicator species, Paratrochammina simplissima , aided in identifying paleo marsh types, their relative proximity to the shoreline, and sediment provenance. The high-energy marsh site transitioned from middle marsh to low marsh in the 1960s, and the low-energy marsh site transitioned later, at the end of the twentieth and early twenty-first century, due to its more protected location. Marsh type transition corresponds chronologically with the coarsening upwards grain-size trend observed and the degradation of Grand Batture Island; since its submergence, signatures of multiple storm event have been preserved downcore.

Mississippi↗
USGS2024

Accelerating elevation gain indicates land loss associated with erosion in Mississippi River Deltaic Plain tidal wetlands

In recent years, the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) has experienced the highest rates of wetland loss in the USA. Although the process of vertical drowning has been heavily studied in coastal wetlands, less is known about the relationship between elevation change and land loss in wetlands that are experiencing lateral erosion and the contribution of erosion to land loss in the MRDP. We quantified relationships of elevation change and land change in ten submerging tidal wetlands and found that, despite significant land loss, elevation trajectories in seven of the land loss study sites were positive. Furthermore, we observed an acceleration in elevation gain preceding the conversion from vegetated marsh to open water. To identify regional contributions of lateral erosion to land loss, we quantified the relationship of elevation change and land change in 159 tidal marsh sites in the MRDP. Approximately half the sites were persistently losing land, and 82% of these sites were vulnerable to erosion, identifying erosion as a dominant mechanism of coastal wetland loss in this region. Notably, the sites that were vulnerable to erosion were experiencing land loss while also gaining elevation, and sites with the highest land loss exhibited accelerating elevation gain. Together, these data illustrate that (1) erosion is a dominant mechanism of wetland loss in the MRDP, (2) accelerated elevation gain is an indicator of erosion, and (3) consideration of elevation change trajectories within the context of land change is critical for providing accurate coastal wetland vulnerability assessments.

Louisiana↗
USGS2024

Measuring and interpreting the surface and shallow subsurface process influences on coastal wetland elevation: A review

A century ago, measuring elevation in tidal wetlands proved difficult, as survey leveling of soft marsh soils relative to a fixed datum was error prone. For 60 years, vertical accretion measures from marker horizons were used as analogs of elevation change. But without a direct measure of elevation, it was not possible to measure the total influence of surface and subsurface processes on elevation. In the 1990s, the surface elevation table (SET) method, which measures the movement of the wetland surface relative to a fixed point beneath the surface (i.e., the SET benchmark base), was combined with the marker horizon method (SET-MH), providing direct, independent, and simultaneous measures of surface accretion and elevation and quantification of surface and shallow subsurface process influences on elevation. SET-MH measures have revealed several fundamental findings about tidal wetland dynamics. First, accretion [ A ] is often a poor analog for elevation change [ E ]. From 50–66% of wetlands experience shallow subsidence ( A > E ), 7–10% shallow expansion ( A < E ), 7% shrink-swell, and for 24–36% A is an analog for E ( A = E ). Second, biological processes within the root zone and physical processes within and below the root zone influence elevation change in addition to surface processes. Third, vegetation plays a key role in wetland vertical dynamics. Plants trap sediment and increase resistance to erosion and compaction. Soil organic matter accumulation can lead to shallow expansion, but reduced plant growth can lead to subsidence, and plant death to soil collapse. Fourth, elevation rates are a better indicator of wetland response to sea-level rise than accretion rates because they incorporate subsurface influences on elevation occurring beneath the marker horizon. Fifth, combining elevation trends with relative sea-level rise (RSLR) trends improves estimates of RSLR at the wetland surface (i.e., RSLR wet ). Lastly, subsurface process influences are fundamental to a wetland’s response to RSLR and plant community dynamics related to wetland transgression, making the SET-MH method an invaluable tool for understanding coastal wetland elevation dynamics.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2024

Vulnerability to sea-level rise varies among estuaries and habitat types: Lessons learned from a network of surface elevation tables in Puget Sound

Estuarine systems that provide valuable ecosystem services to society and important foraging and rearing habitat for fish and wildlife species continue to undergo degradation. In Puget Sound, WA, as much as 70–80% of historic estuarine habitat has been lost to anthropogenic development, and continued losses are expected through the end of the twenty-first century due to rising sea levels. To evaluate whether Puget Sound’s estuarine habitats will keep pace with current and projected sea-level rise (SLR), we assessed vertical rates of elevation change from a regional network of surface elevation tables and marker horizons (SET-MH). Over the past two decades, SET-MH equipment has been installed throughout a variety of habitats in five Puget Sound estuaries: the Nisqually, Snohomish, Stillaguamish, and Skagit River estuaries, and Padilla Bay. These data provide a unique opportunity to assess elevation change and habitat resilience across a spatiotemporal and environmental gradient. We observed different rates of surface elevation change among estuaries and habitats (Nisqually = 4.64 ± 2.81 mm/year, Snohomish = 5.71 ± 5.83 mm/year, Stillaguamish = 12.82 ± 10.29 mm/year, Skagit = 16.13 ± 7.57 mm/year, Padilla = − 1.25 ± 1.58 mm/year). The highest rates were found at restoring sites with regular sediment input in the Stillaguamish and Skagit estuaries, whereas rates were consistently negative at low elevation sites in sediment starved Padilla Bay. Many sites in Puget Sound appear to be keeping pace with current rates of relative SLR, and some areas are on track to exceed projected rates through the end of the century. These findings indicate that Puget Sound’s estuarine habitats can be resilient to rising tidal levels—as long as sediment delivery is maintained.

Washington↗
USGS2024

The influence of time, tide, and place on fine scale nekton distribution: Insights from the San Francisco Estuary

The location of estuarine organisms varies based on geophysical cycles and environmental conditions, which can strongly bias understanding of organism abundance and distribution. In the San Francisco Estuary, California, extensive monitoring surveys have provided insight into the life history and ecology of certain commercially important or legislatively protected fish species. However, there remains substantial uncertainty in factors influencing the vertical and lateral distributions of many other nekton species in the San Francisco Estuary, including longfin smelt Spirinchus thaleichthys , for whom such distributional information may highly influence interpretation of existing data. We carried out paired sampling using surface and demersal gears to address three questions: (1) Does diel phase influence the vertical position of nekton (e.g., surface versus demersal)? (2) Do environmental conditions, specifically turbidity, influence the vertical and lateral positions of nekton (e.g., center channel versus peripheral shoal)? (3) Does tidal variability influence vertical and lateral distributions of nekton? We documented variability in sampled nekton densities across diel phase (day/night), vertical position (surface/bottom), and lateral position (channel/shoal). Tidal phase and turbidity concentration influenced vertical and lateral distributions for some species at certain locations. Although infrequently encountered, we documented associations of longfin smelt with the lower water column and shoal habitats, with some evidence for upward vertical shifts in low light conditions brought about by nightfall or elevated turbidity. Observed habitat associations provide insight into how interacting geophysical and environmental factors may influence the distribution of nekton and thus the vulnerability of individual species to detection by sampling gears.

California↗
USGS2024

Eutrophication saturates surface elevation change potential in tidal mangrove forests

Coastal mangrove forests are at risk of being submerged due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, mangroves have persisted with changing sea levels due to a variety of biotic and physical feedback mechanisms that allow them to gain and maintain relative soil surface elevation. Therefore, mangrove’s resilience to SLR is dependent upon their ability to build soil elevation at a rate that tracks with SLR, or well-enough to migrate inland. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as altered hydrology and eutrophication, can degrade mangrove forest health and compromise this land building process, placing mangroves at greater risk. Much of Florida’s mangroves are adjacent to highly urbanized areas that produce nutrient-loaded runoff. This study assesses how experimental nutrient inputs in the eutrophic Caloosahatchee Estuary influence the soil surface elevation change (SEC) in two distinct mangrove zones. Annual rates of SEC were reduced by phosphorus additions and differed by mangrove zone, ranging from 0.67 ± 0.59 to 2.13 ± 0.61 and 4.21 ± 0.58 to 6.39 ± 0.59 mm year −1 in the fringe and basin zone, respectively. This suggests that eutrophication can reduce the maximum potential SEC response to SLR and that a mangrove forest’s vulnerability to SLR is not uniform throughout forest but can differ by mangrove zone.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2024

Enhancing assessments of coastal wetland migration potential with sea-level rise: Accounting for uncertainty in elevation data, tidal data, and future water levels

Sea-level rise rates are predicted to surpass rates of wetland vertical adjustment in the coming decades in many areas, increasing the potential for wetland submergence. Information on where wetland migration is possible can help natural resource managers for planning land acquisition or enhancing habitat connectivity to bolster adaptation of coastal wetlands to rising seas. Elevation-based models of wetland migration are often hampered with uncertainty associated with ground surface elevation, current water levels (i.e., tides and extreme water levels), and future water levels from sea-level rise. Here, we developed an approach that involved digital elevation model error reduction and the use of Monte Carlo simulations that utilize uncertainty assumptions regarding elevation error, contemporary water levels, and future sea levels to identify potential wetland migration areas. Our analyses were developed for Duvall and Nassau Counties in northeastern Florida (USA). We focus on the migration of regularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (i.e., flooded by oceanic water daily) and irregularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (i.e., flooded by oceanic water less frequently than daily). For two relative sea-level rise scenarios based on the 0.5 m and the 1.5 m global mean sea-level rise scenarios, we quantified migration by wetland flooding frequency class and identified land cover and land use types that are vulnerable to future exposure to oceanic waters. The variability in total coverage and relative coverage of wetland migration from our results highlights how topography and accelerated sea-level rise interact. Our wetland migration results communicate uncertainty by showing flooding frequency class as probabilistic outputs.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Microtopographic variation as a potential early indicator of ecosystem state change and vulnerability in salt marshes

As global climate change alters the magnitude and rates of environmental stressors, predicting the extent of ecosystem degradation driven by these rapidly changing conditions becomes increasingly urgent. At the landscape scale, disturbances and stressors can increase spatial variability and heterogeneity — indicators that can serve as potential early warnings of declining ecosystem resilience. Increased spatial variability in salt marshes at the landscape scale has been used to quantify the propagation of ponding in salt marsh interiors, but ponding at the landscape scale follows a state change rather than predicts it. Here, we suggest a novel application of commonly collected surface elevation table (SET) data and explore millimeter-scale marsh surface microtopography as a potential early indicator of ecosystem transition. We find an increase in spatial variability using multiple metrics of microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marsh communities across the North American Atlantic seaboard. Increasing microtopographic heterogeneity in vulnerable salt marshes mirrored increasing trends in variance when a tipping point is approached in other alternative stable state systems — indicating that early warning signals of marsh drowning and ecosystem transition are observable at small-spatial scales prior to runaway ecosystem degradation. Congruence between traditional and novel metrics of marsh vulnerability suggests that microtopographic metrics can be used to identify hidden vulnerability before widespread marsh degradation. This novel analysis can be easily applied to existing SET records expanding the traditional focus on vertical change to additionally encapsulate lateral processes.

Atlantic Coast↗
USGS2024

Relative importance of macroalgae and phytoplankton to nearshore consumers and growth across climatic conditions in the northern Gulf of Alaska

Macroalgae and phytoplankton support the base of highly productive nearshore ecosystems in cold-temperate regions. To better understand their relative importance to nearshore food webs, this study considered four regions in the northern Gulf of Alaska where three indicator consumers were collected, filter-feeding mussels ( Mytilus trossulus ), pelagic-feeding Black Rockfish ( Sebastes melanops ), and benthic-feeding Kelp Greenling ( Hexagrammos decagrammus ). The study objectives were to (1) estimate the proportional contributions of macroalgal and phytoplankton organic matter using carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes, (2) determine if macroalgal use affected consumer growth using annual growth rings in shells or otoliths, and (3) describe changes in organic matter use and growth during the Pacific Marine Heatwave (PMH; 2014–2016) in one consumer, mussels. Macroalgae were the major organic matter source (> 60%) to the diet for all three consumers. The relationships between macroalgal contribution and growth were neutral for both fish species and significantly positive for mussels. During the PMH, mussels had a drop (> 10%) in macroalgal contributions and grew 45% less than in other time periods. Simultaneously, the relationship between macroalgal contribution and mussel growth was strongest during the PMH, explaining 48% variation compared to 3–12% before or after the PMH. Collectively, the results suggest that macroalgae is likely more important to cold-temperate nearshore food webs than phytoplankton. Management actions aimed at conserving and expanding macroalgae are likely to benefit nearshore food webs under all climate scenarios and especially during marine heatwaves.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Demographics of a previously undocumented diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) population

Coastal habitats are some of the most imperiled due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. As such, it is important to understand population dynamics of the species that may play a role in regulating coastal systems. Diamondback terrapins in Northwest Florida have been understudied, which has resulted in a gap in our knowledge for this region. To help fill this gap, we conducted a capture-mark-recapture study in St. Joseph Bay, Florida, from 2018 to 2021. Overall, we captured 518 individuals, including 146 recaptures, and we used several modeling frameworks to estimate apparent survival, recapture probability, population entrance, and population size. Our estimates of apparent survival were relatively low, especially for adult males (0.77) and adult females (0.83), but there is a considerable amount of uncertainty around our estimates. Our models indicated that the super-population consists of 1122 individuals (971–1327 95% CI), and the population is comprised of more adult males (753; 665–866 95% CI) than adult females (102; 85–130 95% CI) and juveniles (267; 221–331 95% CI). Estimates of population entrance varied by year throughout our study duration. This study is the first to document a Malaclemys terrapin population in this region of Florida, and we recommend long-term monitoring in order to gain inferences for the management of this declining coastal species.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Estimating biogeochemical rates using a computationally efficient Lagrangian approach

Nutrient concentrations in many estuaries have increased over the past century due to increases in wastewater discharge and increased agricultural intensity, contributing to multiple environmental problems. Numerous biogeochemical and physical processes in estuaries influence nutrient concentrations during transport, resulting in complex spatial and temporal variability and challenges identifying predominant processes and their rates. Mechanistic models which require these rates to quantify biogeochemical processes become complex and difficult to calibrate as the number of processes and parameters grows, owing to the high dimensionality of the parameter space and the computational cost of simultaneously modeling the transport and transformations of constituents. We developed a modeling approach that decouples transport from transformations, enabling fast, data-driven exploration of the parameter space. The approach extracted information including water age, cumulative exposure to specific habitats, and mean water depth exposure from a hydrodynamic model. Using this information, a biogeochemical model was implemented to predict ammonium and nitrate concentrations in a Lagrangian frame. The model performed each simulation in milliseconds on a laptop computer, allowing the fitting of rate parameters for key transformations by optimization. The optimization used fixed station nitrate observations and the model was then validated against high-resolution mapping observations of ammonium and nitrate. The results suggest that the observed spatial and temporal variation can be largely represented with five transformation processes and their associated rates. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) losses occurred only in shallow vegetated areas in the model, highlighting that biogeochemical processes in these areas should be included in DIN models.

California↗
USGS2024

Incorporating measurements of vertical land motion in wetland surface elevation change analyses

We compared elevation trajectories from 14 rod surface elevation table (RSET) stations and 60 real-time kinematic (RTK) global positioning system (GPS) transects within the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR) from 2010–2013. The results were similar, 7.3 ± 0.9 (mean ± standard error; RSET) versus 6.2 ± 0.6 mm year −1 (RTK) ( P = 0.216), and were greater than relative sea level rise (RSLR) computed at the nearest long-term tide station (3.9 ± 0.29 mm year −1 ). Despite having shown elevation gain, these wetlands continue to drown and convert to open water. Episodic, multi-day GPS measurements on geodetic control marks at BNWR between 2005 and 2023 revealed a substantial vertical land motion (VLM) signal. From 2005 to 2015, three reference marks used to control the 2010–2013 RTK study lost on average 6.0 ± 0.7 mm year −1 , corresponding to 80% and 94% of the elevation gain measured by the RSET and RTK techniques, respectively. The longer 18-year subsidence trend measured on one of these marks was lower, 3.9 ± 0.7 mm year −1 , highlighting important interannual variability. Wetland elevation change measurements need to account for VLM occurring below the reference marks used to measure elevation change. Estimates from the nearest long-term tide station may not be applicable to the wetland if the tide station is in a different geological setting. At BNWR, VLM was higher than the VLM at the Cambridge tide station, which helps explain why wetlands at BNWR are not keeping pace with RSLR despite the measured high rates of elevation gain.

Maryland↗
USGS2024

Current advances in coastal wetland elevation dynamics: Introduction to the special issue

The thematic issue entitled, “Current Advances in Coastal Wetland Elevation Dynamics,” draws on topics from two special sessions at the CERF 2021 conference plus additional recent research describing scientific insights gained from the Surface Elevation Table–Marker Horizon (SET–MH) method and its application across the globe to quantify and understand subsurface process influences on wetland elevation change and wetland responses to sea-level rise. The findings group articles within each of five thematic topics. (1) A 30-year retrospective on the scientific insights gained on surface and shallow subsurface process dynamics. (2) Investigations of the subsurface soil process influences on wetland elevation. (3) How the scientific community applies the SET–MH method to quantify and understand wetland responses to RSLR and other environmental drivers such as altered hydrology and sediment supply. (4) How SET–MH data are used in long-term monitoring networks at different geographic scales. (5) Pairing the SET-MH method with (a) survey techniques to increase lateral coverage of wetland elevation trends and (b) geodetic measurements to increase vertical coverage of vertical land motion.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2024

Projecting mangrove forest resilience to sea-level rise on a Pacific Island: Species dynamics and ecological thresholds

Mangroves can increase their elevation relative to tidal flooding through biogeomorphic feedbacks but can submerge if rates of sea-level rise are too great. There is an urgent need to understand the vulnerability of mangroves to sea-level rise so local communities and resource managers can implement and prioritize actions. The need is especially pressing for small islands, which have been identified as an area of concern by the IPCC. We developed a generalizable modeling framework for tidal wetlands (WARMER-3) that accounts for species interactions and the belowground processes that dictate soil elevation building relative to sea levels. The model was calibrated with extensive field datasets, including accretion rates derived from 29 soil cores, over 300 forest inventory plots, water level, and elevation. The model included five mangrove tree species and was applied across seven regions around the Pacific Island of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, where mangrove forest is a critical ecosystem that supports subsistence living for local communities. We explored mangrove resilience and carbon accumulation under six sea-level rise scenarios. We also conducted an analysis to determine the sea-level rise rate threshold above which mangroves would be lost. The results suggest that Pohnpei mangroves can build their elevations relative to low and moderate rates of sea-level rise to prevent submergence, with limited loss of mangrove area through 2150. Under higher sea-level rise rates, however, forest elevation decreased substantially relative to mean sea level and there was extensive loss of mangrove area by that year. Regarding mangrove community composition, for all sea-level rise scenarios, the model predicted a change to increasing relative abundance of flood tolerant species and decreasing relative abundance of high-elevation species, which started to being realized by 2100. Variation in sediment supply, water levels, and elevation capital led to differential vulnerability around the island. We identified a threshold for Pohnpei mangroves where if local sea-level rise rates exceed 7.8 ± 2.2 mm/year they are projected to eventually submerge and be lost. Our modeling framework is novel by addressing both species interactions and critical belowground processes to better understand potential tidal ecosystem responses to sea-level rise.

Pohnpei↗